Agricultural product price risk early warning system

Abstract

The invention relates to an agricultural product price risk early warning system in the field of price risk early warning systems, and the system comprises a data storage module which comprises a local database and a cache database; the data acquisition module is responsible for collecting local and external data, the external data comprises economic and product associated data, the economic data covers supply and demand, raw material price and competitive product information, the product associated data comprises production change and meteorological data, and the data processing module analyzes the external and local data, sets early warning and sensitive threshold values, and sends the early warning and sensitive threshold values to the data processing module. A price influence value calculation algorithm is included, the data processing module has a dynamic analysis mode and evaluates a price influence value in real time, the data management module associates local and external data and adjusts sensitive and early warning thresholds, and the monitoring and early warning module monitors data changes, so that price early warning can be carried out in time when production data and external data change. Pricing adjustment or production adjustment can be carried out according to the data, and the product profit rate is guaranteed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a product price risk early warning system, and in particular to an agricultural product price risk early warning system applied in the field of price risk early warning systems. Background Art

[0002] Price risk early warning systems are advanced monitoring tools designed to monitor market dynamics in real time, predict and identify price volatility risks, and thus help companies and financial institutions make timely decisions. These systems typically use big data analysis, artificial intelligence, and machine learning algorithms to conduct comprehensive analysis of multiple data sources such as historical price data, market news, social media sentiment, and macroeconomic indicators.

[0003] The price risk early warning system can identify early signs of abnormal price fluctuations, such as price fluctuations caused by changes in supply and demand, policy adjustments, natural disasters or market manipulation. By setting thresholds and alarm mechanisms, the system will issue early warnings to users once potential price risks are detected, allowing them to take appropriate risk mitigation measures.

[0004] In order to solve the problem of timeliness of agricultural product prices, a certain early warning system in the market adopts the design of big data model and has a certain market share.

[0005] The specification of Chinese invention patent CN112269912A discloses an agricultural big data price warning management system and method. The data collection platform can obtain online and / or offline agricultural product price information in real time, and upload the obtained agricultural product price information to the cloud; the big data analysis platform analyzes the supply and demand attributes, seasonality and periodicity of agricultural products, and establishes an agricultural product price risk identification model; the invention realizes the price management function of agricultural production and operation using agricultural big data from the aspects of collection of agricultural product price data, identification of price warning information, and management of warning information.

[0006] The specification of Chinese invention patent CN108109006A discloses an agricultural product market monitoring and early warning system, which can complete the collection, analysis and effective early warning of agricultural product market information, so that each link in the agricultural product sales chain can understand the agricultural product market information and market conditions in real time, reasonably and effectively allocate agricultural products and related resources, and promote the healthy and stable development of agriculture and agricultural product markets.

[0007] The existing early warning system is not convenient for effective analysis and early warning of agricultural product prices based on multiple data, which makes it impossible for enterprises to adjust their agricultural product pricing and production operation status in a timely manner according to changes in external data, which can easily lead to economic losses. Summary of the invention

[0008] In view of the above-mentioned prior art, the technical problem to be solved by the present invention is that the existing early warning system is not convenient for effective analysis and early warning of agricultural product prices based on a variety of data, which makes it impossible for enterprises to adjust their agricultural product pricing and production and operation status in time according to changes in external data, which can easily lead to economic losses.

[0009] In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides an agricultural product price risk early warning system, comprising: A data storage module is used to store local product data. The data storage module is provided with a local database and a cache database. The cache database is provided with a real-time synchronization storage unit and a periodic synchronization storage unit. The data storage module is provided with a retrieval unit. The local database is provided with a historical data storage unit and a production data storage unit. A data acquisition module is used to collect local data and external data. Data collection module, used to collect local data and external data; The types of external data include economic data and product-related data. The types of economic data include supply and demand data, raw material price data, and competitive product data. The types of product-related data include production change data and meteorological data. Local data includes production and operation fixed cost data and product pricing data; production change data includes relevant data in agricultural product production with a change frequency greater than a set value; the historical data storage unit stores historical data of external data and local data; the production data storage unit is used to store production change data, production and operation fixed cost data and product pricing data for the current period; Data processing module, used to analyze external data and local data; during analysis, warning thresholds and sensitive thresholds are set based on product-related data and local product data; The data processing module is equipped with a price impact value calculation algorithm that matches the economic data; The data processing module is equipped with a dynamic analysis mode. When the dynamic analysis mode is working: comprehensive analysis of overall real-time data is performed to evaluate the price impact value in real time; The data management module is used to set the associated data, associate each local data with one or more external data, and adjust the sensitivity threshold and warning threshold of the associated external data accordingly when the local data changes; The historical data storage unit stores historical data of external data and local data; the production data storage unit is used to store production change data, production and operation fixed cost data and product pricing data for the current period; The monitoring and early warning module is used to monitor changes in external data and local data. After detecting changes in local data, the early warning threshold and sensitive threshold are reset according to the changed data. When any external data change triggers the sensitive threshold, the monitoring mode is triggered. When the monitoring mode is working, the data of the trigger sensitive threshold is detected in real time; When the external data of the set quantity type reaches its corresponding sensitivity threshold, the dynamic analysis mode is triggered. When the price impact value of the real-time evaluation is not within the set range, a price warning is issued; When any external data value reaches its corresponding warning threshold, a price warning will be issued; The communication module is used to connect to external data sources and contact preset contacts.

[0010] In the above-mentioned agricultural product price risk early warning system, price early warnings can be issued in a timely manner when production data and external data change, so that pricing or production adjustments can be made according to the data to ensure product profit margins.

[0011] As a further improvement of the present application, the specific working steps of the dynamic analysis mode include: calculating the product price impact value of each external data in real time based on the data collected by the data acquisition module, and then aggregating them according to a preset algorithm to obtain the total product price impact value; when the total product price impact value is greater than the set value, a price warning is issued.

[0012] As a further improvement of the present application, the meteorological data corresponds to a plurality of meteorological types, and each meteorological type is preset with a corresponding fixed price impact value. The data processing module determines the price impact value corresponding to each meteorological type based on the reduction rate or increase rate of agricultural product yield caused by historical meteorology.

[0013] As a further improvement of the present application, the data processing module generates a risk assessment report after the price warning, and the risk assessment report includes local data associated with the warning value to facilitate rapid production adjustments.

[0014] As a further improvement of the present application, the data processing module calculates the profit value at the time of current pricing based on the historical data of the external data of the previous year and the current production and operation cost data, and then sets the sensitivity threshold of each external data in the corresponding period of the current year based on the profit value and the average value of each external data in each set period; The sensitive threshold means: when other external data is the average value of the corresponding period of the previous year, when the external data reaches this threshold, the profit corresponding to the current product price is lower than the set threshold; The warning threshold means: when other external data is the average value of the corresponding period of the previous year, when the external data reaches the threshold, the profit corresponding to the current product price is zero.

[0015] As another improvement of the present application, the external data also includes sensitive information, and the sensitive information includes bad news and good news. The price impact value corresponding to the bad news is manually set each time it is changed.

[0016] As another improvement of the present application, a risk management module is further included, which sets a price risk level according to the amount of risk data in the data associated with the local data, and the data storage module marks the external data with a fluctuation range greater than a set value in a set time period as risk data, and the price risk levels include: low risk state, medium risk state and high risk state; When set to low risk status, the system monitors the set risk data in real time; When set to medium risk status, the system monitors the corresponding risk data and other data associated with the corresponding risk data in real time; When set to high risk status, the system dynamically analyzes all external data.

[0017] As another improvement of the present application, when the risk data type associated with the local data is zero, it is set to a low risk state; when the risk data type associated with the local data is less than a set value A but greater than zero, it is set to a medium risk state; when the risk data type associated with the local data exceeds the set value A, it is set to a high risk state.

[0018] As another improved supplement of the present application, the cache database regularly packages and backs up the stored data to the local database, and then clears the backed up cache data.

[0019] To sum up, the early warning system of this solution conducts real-time monitoring and dynamic analysis of multiple data points. When abnormal fluctuations occur in relevant external data, the system can quickly identify and issue early warnings, thereby providing decision-making support for agricultural product producers and operators, helping them to adjust production strategies in a timely manner to cope with the risks brought about by price fluctuations, realizing the monitoring and effective management of agricultural product price risks, and being able to better cope with market fluctuations. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0020] Figure 1 This is a block diagram of the risk warning system for the first implementation mode of this application; Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the working module of the risk warning system of the first implementation mode of this application; Figure 3 This is a flowchart of the risk warning system for the first implementation mode of this application; Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the working process of the risk assessment module of the second implementation mode of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0021] The following describes two implementation modes of the present application in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0022] The first implementation method: Figure 1-3It is shown that an agricultural product price risk early warning system includes: a data storage module for storing local product data, a local database and a cache database are provided in the data storage module, a real-time synchronization storage unit and a periodic synchronization storage unit are provided in the cache database, external data can be transmitted to the data storage module in real time through the real-time synchronization storage unit, and data can also be synchronized at set time intervals through the periodic synchronization storage unit, and different data synchronization modes are set for different types of external data to reduce the system data collection workload; A retrieval unit is provided in the data storage module; the cache database regularly packages and backs up the stored data to the local database, and then clears the backed-up cache data.

[0023] Data collection module, used to collect local data and external data; The types of external data include economic data and product-related data. The types of economic data include supply and demand data, raw material price data and competitive product data. The types of product-related data include production change data and meteorological data. Meteorological data corresponds to multiple meteorological types, and each meteorological type has a preset corresponding fixed price impact value. The data processing module determines the price impact value corresponding to each meteorological type based on the agricultural product production reduction rate or increase rate caused by historical meteorology. The price impact value here is a preset fixed value.

[0024] External data also includes sensitive information, which includes negative news and positive news. The price impact value corresponding to the negative news is set manually each time it is changed.

[0025] When the data collection module collects major favorable or unfavorable news related to the agricultural product, the communication module reminds the preset contact related technical personnel, and the relevant technical personnel in this field determine the price impact value and validity period corresponding to the sensitive information according to the specific news situation, and manually adjust the settings in the system. After the sensitive information exceeds the set validity period, the price impact value is cleared; Local data includes production and operation fixed cost data and product pricing data; production change data includes relevant data in agricultural product production with a frequency of change greater than a set value, which is set by technical personnel in this field according to the actual needs of different agricultural product production; The production and operation fixed cost data includes multiple sub-items. The technical personnel in charge will associate each sub-item with reasonable external data so that when the associated external data triggers an early warning, the relevant sub-item can be quickly traced back to make production adjustments. The historical data storage unit stores historical data of external data and local data; the production data storage unit is used to store production change data, production and operation fixed cost data and product pricing data for the current period; The data processing module is equipped with a price impact value calculation algorithm that matches the economic data. Through the price impact value calculation algorithm, the corresponding product price change value caused by the change of external data is obtained; The price impact value calculation algorithm is set by those skilled in the art according to the appropriate algorithm in the prior art, for example: the demand price elasticity calculation algorithm, which matches the supply and demand data; the variable cost method calculation algorithm, which matches the production change data, the production and operation fixed cost data and the raw material price data; the competition index calculation algorithm, which matches the competitive product data; The data processing module is equipped with a dynamic analysis mode. When the dynamic analysis mode is working: comprehensive analysis of overall real-time data is performed to evaluate the price impact value in real time; The data management module is used to set the associated data, associate each local data with one or more external data, and adjust the sensitivity threshold and warning threshold of the associated external data accordingly when the local data changes; The data processing module calculates the profit value at the current pricing based on the historical data of external data of the previous year (including the sales data of the same type of agricultural products in each historical period) and the current production and operation cost data, and then sets the sensitivity threshold of each external data in the corresponding period of the current year based on the profit value and the average value of each external data in each set period; The sensitive threshold means: when other external data is the average value of the corresponding period of the previous year, when the external data reaches this threshold, the profit corresponding to the current product price is lower than the set threshold; The warning threshold means: when other external data is the average value of the corresponding period of the previous year, when the external data reaches the threshold, the profit corresponding to the current product price is zero.

[0026] Data processing module, used to analyze external data and local data; during analysis, warning thresholds and sensitive thresholds are set based on product-related data and local product data; The monitoring and early warning module is used to monitor changes in external data and local data. After detecting changes in local data, the early warning threshold and sensitive threshold are reset according to the changed data. When any external data change triggers the sensitive threshold, the monitoring mode is triggered. When the monitoring mode is working, the data of the trigger sensitive threshold is detected in real time; When the external data of the set quantity type reaches its corresponding sensitivity threshold, the dynamic analysis mode is triggered. When the price impact value of the real-time evaluation is not within the set range, a price warning is issued; When any external data value reaches its corresponding warning threshold, a price warning will be issued; The communication module is used to connect to external data sources and contact preset contacts.

[0027] After the price warning, the data processing module generates a risk assessment report, which includes the local data associated with the warning value, facilitating rapid production adjustments.

[0028] Before the early warning system of this plan works: The data processing module calculates the profit value at the current pricing based on the historical data of external data in the previous year and the current production and operation cost data, and sets the sensitivity threshold and warning threshold of each external data in the corresponding period of the current year; Before the early warning system of this solution works: the monitoring and early warning module monitors the changes of external data and local data, and resets the early warning threshold and sensitive threshold after the fixed cost of production and operation or pricing data of local data changes. When any external data change triggers the sensitive threshold, the monitoring mode is triggered; When the monitoring mode is working, the data that triggers the sensitive threshold is detected in real time; When the external data of the set quantity type reaches its corresponding sensitivity threshold, the dynamic analysis mode is triggered. When the price impact value of the real-time evaluation is not within the set range, a price warning is issued; When any external data value reaches its corresponding warning threshold, a price warning will be issued; At this time, the communication module contacts the preset contact person, and after the price warning, the data processing module generates a risk assessment report, including the local data associated with the warning value, to facilitate rapid production adjustments.

[0029] Second implementation method: Figure 4 It is shown that it also includes a risk management module, which sets the price risk level according to the number of risk data in the data associated with the local data. The data storage module marks the external data with a fluctuation range greater than the set value in the set time period as risk data. The price risk levels include: low risk state, medium risk state and high risk state; the low risk state means that the profit of agricultural products is less affected by the outside world, the profit of agricultural products in the medium risk state is affected by the outside world to a certain extent, and the high risk state is greatly affected by the outside world; When the risk data type associated with the local data is zero, it is set to a low risk state; when the risk data type associated with the local data is less than the set value A but greater than zero, it is set to a medium risk state; when the risk data type associated with the local data exceeds the set value A, it is set to a high risk state.

[0030] When set to low risk status, the system monitors the set risk data in real time; When set to medium risk status, the system monitors the corresponding risk data and other data associated with the corresponding risk data in real time; When set to a high-risk state, the system dynamically analyzes all external data; the specific working steps of the dynamic analysis mode include: calculating the product price impact value of each external data in real time based on the data collected by the data acquisition module, and then aggregating it according to the preset algorithm to obtain the total product price impact value. When the total product price impact value is greater than the set value, a price warning is issued.

[0031] When any of the above monitored data triggers its sensitive threshold or early warning threshold, the system executes the relevant operations when the sensitive threshold or early warning threshold is triggered in the first implementation mode; The risk management module of this implementation can promptly detect and respond to abnormal fluctuations in agricultural product prices. Through real-time monitoring and dynamic analysis, the system can quickly identify price risks and reduce losses caused by price fluctuations, providing a powerful tool for the management of agricultural product price risks.

[0032] To sum up, the early warning system of this solution conducts real-time monitoring and dynamic analysis of multiple data points. When abnormal fluctuations occur in relevant external data, the system can quickly identify and issue early warnings, thereby providing decision-making support for agricultural product producers and operators, helping them to adjust production strategies in a timely manner to cope with the risks brought about by price fluctuations, realizing the monitoring and effective management of agricultural product price risks, and being able to better cope with market fluctuations.

[0033] In view of current practical needs, the above-mentioned implementation mode adopted in this application is not limited to the scope of protection. Various changes made within the knowledge scope of technical personnel in this field without departing from the concept of this application still fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. An agricultural product price risk early warning system, characterized by: include: A data storage module is used to store local product data. The data storage module is provided with a local database and a cache database. The cache database is provided with a real-time synchronization storage unit and a periodic synchronization storage unit. The data storage module is provided with a retrieval unit. The local database is provided with a historical data storage unit and a production data storage unit. Data collection module, used to collect local data and external data; The types of external data include economic data and product-related data. The types of economic data include supply and demand data, raw material price data and competitive product data. The types of product-related data include production change data and meteorological data. The local data includes production and operation fixed cost data and product pricing data; the production change data includes relevant data in agricultural product production with a change frequency greater than a set value; the historical data storage unit stores historical data of external data and local data; the production data storage unit is used to store production change data, production and operation fixed cost data and product pricing data for the current period; Data processing module, used to analyze external data and local data; during analysis, warning thresholds and sensitive thresholds are set based on product-related data and local product data; The data processing module is provided with a price impact value calculation algorithm that matches the economic data; The data processing module is provided with a dynamic analysis mode. When the dynamic analysis mode is in operation: a comprehensive analysis is performed on the overall real-time data to evaluate the price impact value in real time; The data management module is used to set the associated data, associate each local data with one or more external data, and adjust the sensitivity threshold and warning threshold of the associated external data accordingly when the local data changes; The monitoring and early warning module is used to monitor changes in external data and local data. After detecting changes in local data, the early warning threshold and sensitive threshold are reset according to the changed data. When any external data change triggers the sensitive threshold, the monitoring mode is triggered. When the monitoring mode is working, the data of the triggering sensitive threshold is detected in real time; When the external data of the set quantity type reaches its corresponding sensitivity threshold, the dynamic analysis mode is triggered. When the price impact value of the real-time evaluation is not within the set range, a price warning is issued; When any external data value reaches its corresponding warning threshold, a price warning will be issued; The communication module is used to connect to external data sources and contact preset contacts.

2. The agricultural product price risk early warning system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific working steps of the dynamic analysis mode include: calculating the product price impact value of each external data in real time based on the data collected by the data acquisition module, and then aggregating them according to a preset algorithm to obtain the total product price impact value. When the total product price impact value is greater than the set value, a price warning is issued.

3. The agricultural product price risk early warning system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The meteorological data corresponds to a variety of meteorological types, each of which is preset with a corresponding fixed price impact value. The data processing module determines the price impact value corresponding to each meteorological type based on the reduction rate or increase rate of agricultural product yield caused by historical meteorology.

4. The agricultural product price risk early warning system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The post-price warning data processing module generates a risk assessment report, which includes local data associated with the warning value, facilitating rapid production adjustments.

5. The agricultural product price risk early warning system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The data processing module calculates the profit value at the current pricing based on the historical data of the external data of the previous year and the current production and operation cost data, and then sets the sensitivity threshold of each external data in the corresponding period of the current year based on the profit value and the average value of each external data in each set period; The sensitive threshold means: when other external data is the average value of the corresponding period of the previous year, when the external data reaches the threshold, the profit corresponding to the current product price is lower than the set threshold; The warning threshold value indicates that when other external data are the average values ​​of the corresponding period of the previous year, when the external data reaches the threshold value, the profit corresponding to the current product price is zero.

6. The agricultural product price risk early warning system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The external data also includes sensitive information, which includes negative news and positive news. The price impact value corresponding to the negative news is manually set each time it is changed.

7. The agricultural product price risk early warning system according to claim 1, characterized in that: It also includes a risk management module, which sets a price risk level according to the amount of risk data in the data associated with the local data. The data storage module marks external data with a fluctuation range greater than a set value in a set time period as risk data. The price risk level includes: low risk state, medium risk state and high risk state; When set to low risk status, the system monitors the set risk data in real time; When set to medium risk status, the system monitors the corresponding risk data and other data associated with the corresponding risk data in real time; When set to high risk status, the system dynamically analyzes all external data.

8. The agricultural product price risk early warning system according to claim 7, characterized in that: When the risk data type associated with the local data is zero, it is set to a low risk state; when the risk data type associated with the local data is less than the set value A but greater than zero, it is set to a medium risk state; when the risk data type associated with the local data exceeds the set value A, it is set to a high risk state.

9. The agricultural product price risk early warning system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The cache database regularly packages and backs up the stored data to the local database, and then clears the backed-up cache data.

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