Exploration project investment benefit determination method and device and electronic equipment

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of exploration and development, and discloses an exploration project investment benefit determination method and device and electronic equipment, and the method comprises the steps: dividing an exploration project into a plurality of evaluation stages; determining a discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage; and determining the exploration block investment benefit of the exploration project according to a preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage. According to the exploration project investment benefit determination method and apparatus, and the electronic device provided by the invention, the exploration project is divided into different evaluation stages, and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage is determined according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage, so that the exploration block investment benefit of the exploration project is predicted more accurately, and the exploration efficiency is improved. Therefore, the investment feasibility of the exploration project can be more accurately judged.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of exploration and development technology, and in particular to a method, device and electronic equipment for determining investment benefits of an exploration project. Background Art

[0002] The discounted cash flow method is usually used for the valuation of oil and gas assets. The principle of this method is: first predict the cash flow of different time periods during the project contract period, then use a certain discount rate to discount the cash flow of different time periods to the base date, and finally sum up all the discounted values. This sum is the economic value of the project on the base date. From the principle of using the discounted cash flow method, it can be seen that the discount rate is one of the most critical indicators, and its value is directly related to the size of the project valuation.

[0003] In the existing discounted cash flow method, the discount rate indicator usually adopts a fixed single value. Some oil companies use different discount rate indicators according to different project types or risk levels of different resource countries, but the full-cycle cash flow discounting in economic evaluation adopts a fixed single discount rate indicator.

[0004] Compared with development projects, exploration projects usually have a longer cycle. In addition to the construction period and production period, exploration projects also include the exploration period and evaluation period. The use of the discounted cash flow method to conduct economic evaluation requires the prediction of the cash flow of the entire project cycle. As the prediction cycle is extended, the prediction accuracy and uncertainty increase significantly. Therefore, the risks borne by investments in different time periods are also different. The value of the discount rate indicator reflects, to a certain extent, the oil company's judgment on the size of the project risk. If a fixed discount rate is used over an extremely long period, it cannot fully reflect the investment risks of the project in different periods, and thus it is impossible to accurately predict the investment benefits of the exploration project. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the above problems, the present invention provides a method, device and electronic equipment for determining the investment benefit of an exploration project, which can more accurately predict the investment benefit of an exploration project and more accurately judge the investment feasibility of the exploration project.

[0006] The present invention provides a method for determining investment benefits of an exploration project, the method comprising:

[0007] Divide exploration projects into evaluation phases;

[0008] Determine the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage;

[0009] The investment benefits of the exploration blocks of the exploration project are determined based on the preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage.

[0010] Further, the multiple evaluation stages include:

[0011] Exploration and evaluation stage and development and production stage.

[0012] Furthermore, the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage is determined according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage, including:

[0013] The company's financing costs are used as the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage;

[0014] The sum of the company's weighted average cost of capital and the preset risk premium is used as the discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage.

[0015] Furthermore, when the initial stage of exploration and evaluation is used as the discount point, the preset benefit model includes:

[0016]

[0017] Among them, E 1 To explore the investment benefits of the block;

[0018] NCF e is the net cash flow of the e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the exploration and evaluation stage;

[0019] NCF d is the net cash flow of the dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the development and production stage;

[0020] i e is the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage;

[0021] i d The discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage;

[0022] l is the total number of unit times included in the exploration and evaluation phase;

[0023] m is the unit time of the starting time point of development investment in the development and production stage;

[0024] n is the total number of time units included in the life cycle of an exploration project.

[0025] Furthermore, taking the early stage of development and production as the discount point, the benefit model includes:

[0026]

[0027] Among them, E 2 To explore the investment benefits of the block;

[0028] NCFe is the net cash flow of the e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the exploration and evaluation stage;

[0029] NCF d is the net cash flow of the dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the development and production stage;

[0030] i e is the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage;

[0031] i d The discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage;

[0032] l is the total number of unit times included in the exploration and evaluation phase;

[0033] m is the unit time of the starting time point of development investment in the development and production stage;

[0034] n is the total number of time units included in the life cycle of an exploration project.

[0035] The present invention also provides a method for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project, the method comprising:

[0036] Determining the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project according to a preset benefit determination method; wherein the preset benefit determination method includes the above-mentioned exploration project investment benefit determination method;

[0037] When the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project is not less than a preset threshold, the target exploration project is judged to be investment feasible.

[0038] The present invention also provides a device for determining investment benefits of an exploration project, the device comprising:

[0039] Phase division module, used to divide exploration projects into multiple evaluation phases;

[0040] A discount rate determination module is used to determine the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage;

[0041] The benefit determination module is used to determine the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project based on the preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage.

[0042] The present invention also provides a device for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project, the device comprising:

[0043] An investment benefit determination module, used to determine the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project according to a preset benefit determination method; wherein the preset benefit determination method includes the above-mentioned exploration project investment benefit determination method;

[0044] The investment feasibility determination module is used to determine whether the target exploration project has investment feasibility when the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project is not less than a preset threshold.

[0045] The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, wherein the computer program stored in the computer-readable storage medium implements the steps of the above method when executed by one or more processors.

[0046] The present invention also provides an electronic device, comprising a memory and one or more processors, wherein a computer program is stored in the memory, and when the computer program is executed by the one or more processors, the steps of the above method are executed.

[0047] The method, device and electronic equipment for determining the investment benefit of an exploration project provided by the present invention have at least the following features:

[0048] Beneficial effects:

[0049] (1) When determining the investment benefit of an exploration block of an exploration project, the exploration project is divided into multiple evaluation stages, and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage is determined according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage, and then the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project is determined according to the preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage; that is, when the discounted cash flow method is used to solve the value of the exploration block, the present invention provides a more scientific and reasonable method for determining the value of the discount rate index, and by matching the project investment risk with the return requirements, different discount rate index values ​​are used at different stages to reflect the different requirements for the risk-return ratio of investment at different stages. Compared with only using a single discount rate to predict the investment benefit of a project, the present invention can timely reflect the changes in investors' expectations of project returns when the investment risk changes, thereby more accurately predicting the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project.

[0050] (2) When judging the investment feasibility of the target exploration project, firstly, different discount rates are used at different stages to more accurately predict the investment benefits of the exploration blocks of the target exploration project. Then, the investment feasibility of the target exploration project is more accurately judged based on the predicted investment benefits of the exploration blocks of the target exploration project, making the investment decision of the oil company more scientific and effective. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0051] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0052] It should also be noted that, for the convenience of description, only the parts related to the present invention are shown in the drawings. The drawings constituting a part of the specification of the present invention are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention. The exemplary embodiments and descriptions in the present invention are used to explain the present invention and do not constitute an improper limitation of the present invention. In the drawings:

[0053] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the uncertainty of economically recoverable resources for an exploration project;

[0054] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the uncertainty of investment returns for exploration projects;

[0055] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the changes in project cash flow and discounted cash flow (discount rate 10%) during the life cycle of an exploration project;

[0056] Figure 4 This is a flowchart of the method for determining the investment benefit of an exploration project provided in the first embodiment of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the phase division of the exploration project provided in the first embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 6 This is a flow chart of the steps of the method for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project provided in the second embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 7 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an exploration project investment benefit determination device provided in Embodiment 3 of the present invention;

[0060] Figure 8 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an exploration project investment feasibility determination device provided in Embodiment 4 of the present invention;

[0061] Fig. 9 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided in Embodiment 8 of the present invention;

[0062] Reference numerals:

[0063] Figure 7 In: 701-stage division module, 702-discount rate determination module, 703-benefit determination module;

[0064] Figure 8In: 801- Investment benefit determination module, 802- Investment feasibility determination module;

[0065] Fig. 9 In it: 900 - electronic device, 901 - processor, 902 - communication bus, 903 - user interface, 904 - communication interface, 905 - memory. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0066] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the embodiments shown in the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments of the present invention, and it should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the exemplary embodiments described here.

[0067] It should be noted that the relative arrangement of components and steps, the numerical expressions and numerical values ​​set forth in these embodiments do not limit the scope of the present invention unless specifically stated otherwise.

[0068] It should also be understood that any component, data or structure mentioned in the embodiments of the present invention can generally be understood as one or more, unless explicitly limited or otherwise indicated in the context.

[0069] It should also be understood that the description of the various embodiments of the present invention focuses on the differences between the various embodiments, and the same or similar aspects thereof can be referenced to each other, and for the sake of brevity, they will not be described one by one.

[0070] The following description of at least one exemplary embodiment is merely illustrative in nature and is in no way intended to limit the invention, its application, or uses.

[0071] The embodiments of the present invention may not discuss in detail the technologies, methods, and devices known to ordinary technicians in the relevant fields, but where appropriate, the technologies, methods, and devices should be considered as part of the specification.

[0072] With the continuous investment in exploration and development, the economically recoverable resources of oil and gas in the exploration blocks are becoming more and more certain (see Figure 1 ), but for the economic evaluation of exploration blocks, since decisions need to be made at the beginning of the project, the economic uncertainty increases as time goes by, that is, the risk continues to increase with time (see Figure 2 ). Considering the time value of money, it is believed that the value of cash flow is shrinking over time. In the discounted cash flow method, the indicator that reflects the time value of money is the discount rate: the further away from the discount base date, the greater the difference between the discounted value and the non-discounted value of the cash flow (see Figure 3); When the discount rate index value is larger, the difference between the discounted cash flow value and the non-discounted value is also larger. The valuation index of the discounted cash flow method, Net Present Value (NPV), is the sum of discounted cash flows in different periods. Therefore, the value of the discount rate index determines the project valuation to a certain extent, which in turn affects the investment decision of the project.

[0073] The present invention analyzes the characteristics of investment in different stages of exploration projects and the corresponding risks, comprehensively considers the "risk-return" matching relationship, clarifies the discount rate indicators at different investment stages, and then more accurately determines the investment benefits of the exploration blocks of the exploration projects based on the discount rate indicators at different stages combined with the preset benefit model, thereby serving the investment decision-making of the exploration projects.

[0074] Embodiment 1

[0075] In the first embodiment of the present invention, Figure 4 As shown, a method for determining the investment benefit of an exploration project is provided, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:

[0076] Step S401: Divide the exploration project into multiple evaluation stages.

[0077] Step S402: Determine the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage.

[0078] Step S403: Determine the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project according to the preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage.

[0079] Optionally, the exploration project in this embodiment may include an oil and gas exploration project (petroleum, natural gas, shale gas and other oil and gas exploration projects).

[0080] In step S401, the multiple evaluation stages may include: an exploration evaluation stage and a development and production stage.

[0081] Specifically, in actual division, exploration projects can be divided into an exploration and evaluation stage and a development and production stage without overlap according to actual needs, or they can be divided into an exploration and evaluation stage and a development and production stage with partial overlap.

[0082] refer to Figure 5 Schematic diagram of exploration project phase division, Figure 5 It means that the exploration project is divided into the exploration and evaluation stage and the development and production stage, which have some overlap.

[0083] Furthermore, the exploration and evaluation stage can be specifically divided into an exploration period and an evaluation period, and the development and production stage can be specifically divided into a construction period and a production period. In another optional implementation, the multiple evaluation stages can also include four evaluation stages: an exploration period, an evaluation period, a construction period, and a production period.

[0084] Furthermore, in oil and gas exploration projects, the main work during the exploration period is to determine the geological structure, reservoir type, resource scale, oil and gas properties of the oil and gas field through geological exploration, geophysical exploration, geochemical exploration and other means.

[0085] The main tasks during the evaluation period are: to conduct detailed seismic surveys, precise surveys or three-dimensional seismic explorations of oil and gas reservoirs (fields), to drill evaluation wells, to identify geological characteristics such as structural morphology, fault distribution, reservoir distribution, and changes in reservoir physical properties, to identify oil and gas reservoir types, reservoir types, drive types, fluid properties and distribution, and production capacity, to understand the technical conditions for mining and the economic value of development, and to complete the design of development plans.

[0086] The main tasks during the construction period are: to implement development well network drilling in accordance with the development plan, to complete the construction of supporting facilities, to supplement the necessary data, to further review resources and verify production capacity, and to prepare for the commissioning of oil and gas reservoirs (fields).

[0087] The main tasks during the production period are: to maintain normal oil and gas exploitation and production in blocks or oil and gas fields with established production capacity, and to make necessary production adjustments, transformations and improvements in a timely manner to increase the recovery rate, rationally utilize oil and gas resources, and improve economic benefits.

[0088] In step S402, the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage is determined according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage, which may include:

[0089] Step S4021: Use the company's financing cost as the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage.

[0090] The investment made to discover oil and gas resources usually occurs in the exploration and evaluation stage of an exploration project. The investment mainly includes signing fees and taxes paid for obtaining exploration blocks, seismic data acquisition and processing, exploratory wells and evaluation wells, geological research fees, tributes and management fees, etc.

[0091] The net cash flow of an oil company during the exploration and evaluation stage is expressed as a net investment (negative cash flow). Once it is determined to enter the exploration block, basic investment during the exploration and evaluation stage is usually necessary, and the uncertainty risk is relatively small. Therefore, the capital cost (discount rate) of this stage can adopt the financing cost at the oil company level.

[0092] It should be noted that the embodiment of the present invention does not specifically limit the value of the company's financing cost, and those skilled in the art can determine the value of the company's financing cost according to actual conditions. For example, the company's financing cost is 4%.

[0093] Step S4022: The sum of the company's weighted average cost of capital and the preset risk premium is used as the discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage.

[0094] The realization of the value of discovered oil and gas resources usually occurs in the development and production stages of exploration projects. Its cash inflows are mainly oil and gas revenues generated by the sales of produced oil and gas, and its cash outflows mainly include Pre-fid (pre-final investment decision, referred to as Pre-fid) research, development drilling, surface (offshore) engineering, long-distance pipelines and other investments, oil and gas operating costs and various taxes and fees.

[0095] From the perspective of the initial point of an exploration project, it usually takes a long period of time, such as 3 to 6 years or more, from obtaining oil and gas resources to putting them into development. The longer the time, the greater the risk, which means the higher the risk-reward requirement. Therefore, for exploration projects, the discount rate in the development and production stage usually needs to be based on the company's weighted average cost of capital (Weighted Average Cost of Capital, referred to as WACC) and then consider the risk premium of the exploration project itself. Different risk premiums can be considered for different projects according to their risk size.

[0096] Among them, the weighted average cost of capital is a method of calculating the company's capital cost by taking the weighted average of the weights of each type of capital in the total capital sources. Capital sources include common stock, preferred stock, bonds and all long-term debts. When calculating, the cost of each type of capital (after tax) is multiplied by its proportion of total capital and then added up.

[0097] It should be noted that the embodiment of the present invention does not specifically limit the values ​​of the company's weighted average cost of capital and the preset risk premium. Those skilled in the art can determine the values ​​of the company's weighted average cost of capital and the preset risk premium according to actual conditions. For example, the company's weighted average cost of capital is 10%, and the risk premium is 2%, that is, the discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage is considered to be 12%.

[0098] In step S402 of this embodiment, the discount rates corresponding to different evaluation stages are determined according to the investment risks at different evaluation stages, and the "risk-return" matching relationship is comprehensively considered, thereby providing a more scientific and reasonable method for determining the discount rate indicator.

[0099] In step S403, for different discount points, different preset benefit models may be selected to determine the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project.

[0100] Optionally, when the initial stage of the exploration and evaluation phase is used as the discount point, the preset benefit model includes:

[0101]

[0102] Among them, E 1 The investment benefit of the exploration block can be in millions of US dollars. 1 When the amount is less than a preset threshold, the investment may be abandoned. It should be noted that the embodiment of the present invention does not impose any special limitation on the specific value of the preset threshold, and those skilled in the art may determine the value based on actual conditions. For example, the preset threshold may be 0.

[0103] NCF e is the net cash flow of the e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the exploration evaluation stage. 1 The unit of NCF is consistent, which can be millions of US dollars; e It usually appears as a net investment, which is a negative value.

[0104] NCF d is the net cash flow of the dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the development and production stage. 1 The unit of NCF is consistent, which can be millions of US dollars; d It is usually negative in the early stage and positive in the later stage.

[0105] i e is the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage; in one implementation, i e It is the financing cost at the oil company level.

[0106] i d is the discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage; in one implementation, i d It is the sum of the company's weighted average cost of capital and the preset risk premium.

[0107] l is the total number of unit time included in the exploration and evaluation stage. The exploration and evaluation stage is usually 3 to 6 years. If the unit is month (that is, 1 unit time is 1 month), the total number of unit time included in the exploration and evaluation stage is 36 to 72, that is, l is 36 to 72.

[0108] m is the unit time of the starting time point of the development investment in the development and production stage, l≥m>0; for example, if the unit is year (the time scale is year, that is, 1 unit time is 1 year), then m represents the starting year of the development investment (that is, the starting year of the development and production stage, corresponding to Figure 5If the starting year of the development and production phase is the sixth year in the life cycle of the survey project, then the value of m is 6.

[0109] n is the total number of unit times included in the life cycle of an exploration project. The life cycle of an exploration project is also the total contract period of the project, where n>l≥m. In the embodiment of the present invention, the unit may be year, quarter or month. If the unit is year, the life cycle of an exploration project includes n years, if the unit is quarter, the life cycle of an exploration project includes n quarters, and if the unit is month, the life cycle of an exploration project includes n months.

[0110] Optionally, with the early stage of the development and production phase as the discount point, the benefit model includes:

[0111]

[0112] Among them, E 2 To explore the investment benefits of the block;

[0113] NCF e is the net cash flow of the e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the exploration and evaluation stage;

[0114] NCF d is the net cash flow of the dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the development and production stage;

[0115] i e is the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage;

[0116] i d The discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage;

[0117] l is the total number of unit times included in the exploration and evaluation phase;

[0118] m is the unit time of the starting time point of development investment in the development and production stage;

[0119] n is the total number of time units included in the life cycle of an exploration project.

[0120] The specific explanation of the relevant parameters in the preset benefit model has been described in detail above and will not be repeated here.

[0121] The method for determining the investment benefit of an exploration project provided in this embodiment, when determining the investment benefit of an exploration block of an exploration project, divides the exploration project into multiple evaluation stages, determines the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage, and then determines the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project according to the preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage; that is, when the discounted cash flow method is used to solve the value of the exploration block, the present invention provides a more scientific and reasonable method for determining the value of the discount rate index, and adopts different discount rate index values ​​at different stages to reflect the different requirements for the risk-return rate of investment at different stages. Compared with only using a single discount rate to predict the investment benefit of an exploration block of an exploration project (which can only reflect the investor's expectation of the comprehensive investment return rate of the exploration project, and cannot timely reflect the change in the investor's expectation of the project return when the investment risk changes), the present invention can timely reflect the change in the investor's expectation of the project return when the investment risk changes, thereby more accurately predicting the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project.

[0122] Embodiment 2

[0123] In the second embodiment of the present invention, Figure 6 As shown, a method for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project is provided, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:

[0124] Step S601: Determine the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project according to a preset benefit determination method.

[0125] Among them, the preset benefit determination method includes the exploration project investment benefit determination method in Example 1.

[0126] In one implementation, determining the investment benefit of an exploration block of a target exploration project according to a preset benefit determination method includes the following steps:

[0127] Divide exploration projects into evaluation phases;

[0128] Determine the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage;

[0129] The investment benefits of the exploration blocks of the exploration project are determined based on the preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage.

[0130] Step S602: When the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project is not less than a preset threshold, it is determined that the target exploration project has investment feasibility.

[0131] It should be noted that the preset threshold value can be set by those skilled in the art according to actual conditions and is not particularly limited in this embodiment. For example, the preset threshold value can be set to 0.

[0132] The method for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project provided in this embodiment first determines the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project according to a preset benefit determination method, wherein the preset benefit determination method includes dividing the exploration project into multiple evaluation stages; determining the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage; and determining the investment benefit of the exploration project according to a preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage. The preset benefit determination method in this embodiment helps oil companies to more accurately balance the relationship between investment risk and return in value estimation through a variable discount rate, and further more accurately predict the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project, thereby making more scientific investment decisions based on the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project.

[0133] Embodiment 3

[0134] Embodiment 3 of the present invention also provides a device for determining investment benefits of an exploration project, such as Figure 7 As shown, the device comprises:

[0135] The stage division module 701 is used to divide the exploration project into multiple evaluation stages.

[0136] The discount rate determination module 702 is used to determine the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage.

[0137] The benefit determination module 703 is used to determine the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project according to the preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage.

[0138] In one implementation, the multiple evaluation stages include: an exploration and evaluation stage and a development and production stage.

[0139] Further, the discount rate determination module 702 includes:

[0140] The exploration and evaluation stage discount rate determination unit 7021 is used to use the company's financing cost as the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage.

[0141] The development and production stage discount rate determination unit 7022 is used to take the sum of the company's weighted average capital cost and the preset risk premium as the discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage.

[0142] Optionally, when the initial stage of the exploration and evaluation phase is used as the discount point, the preset benefit model includes:

[0143]

[0144] Among them, E 1 To explore the investment benefits of the block;

[0145] NCF e is the net cash flow of the e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the exploration and evaluation stage;

[0146] NCF d is the net cash flow of the dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the development and production stage;

[0147] i e is the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage;

[0148] i d The discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage;

[0149] l is the total number of unit times included in the exploration and evaluation phase;

[0150] m is the unit time of the starting time point of development investment in the development and production stage;

[0151] n is the total number of time units included in the life cycle of an exploration project.

[0152] Optionally, with the early stage of the development and production phase as the discount point, the benefit model includes:

[0153]

[0154] Among them, E 2 To explore the investment benefits of the block;

[0155] NCF e is the net cash flow of the e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the exploration and evaluation stage;

[0156] NCF d is the net cash flow of the dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the development and production stage;

[0157] i e is the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage;

[0158] i d The discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage;

[0159] l is the total number of unit times included in the exploration and evaluation phase;

[0160] m is the unit time of the starting time point of development investment in the development and production stage;

[0161] n is the total number of time units included in the life cycle of an exploration project.

[0162] The device for determining the investment benefit of an exploration project provided in this embodiment, when determining the investment benefit of an exploration block of an exploration project, divides the exploration project into multiple evaluation stages, and determines the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage, and then determines the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project according to the preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage. That is, when the discounted cash flow method is used to solve the value of the exploration block, the present invention provides a more scientific and reasonable method for determining the value of the discount rate index, and different discount rate index values ​​are used in different stages to reflect the different requirements for the risk-return ratio of investment at different stages. Compared with only using a single discount rate to predict the investment benefit of a project, the present invention can timely reflect the changes in investors' expectations of project returns when the investment risk changes, thereby more accurately predicting the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project.

[0163] Embodiment 4

[0164] In a fourth embodiment of the present invention, a device for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project is provided, such as Figure 8 As shown, the device comprises:

[0165] The investment benefit determination module 801 is used to determine the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project according to a preset benefit determination method; wherein the preset benefit determination method includes the exploration project investment benefit determination method in the first embodiment.

[0166] The investment feasibility determination module 802 is used to determine whether the target exploration project has investment feasibility when the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project is not less than a preset threshold.

[0167] The device for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project provided in this embodiment first determines the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project according to a preset benefit determination method, wherein the preset benefit determination method includes dividing the exploration project into multiple evaluation stages; determining the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage; and determining the investment benefit of the exploration project according to a preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage. The preset benefit determination method in this embodiment helps oil companies to more accurately balance the relationship between investment risk and return in value estimation through a variable discount rate, and further more accurately predict the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project, thereby making more scientific investment decisions based on the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project.

[0168] Embodiment 5

[0169] In the fifth embodiment of the present invention, a specific example of a method for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project is provided. The method for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project specifically includes the following steps:

[0170] (1) The exploration block is divided into two evaluation stages, namely the exploration evaluation stage and the development and production stage. There may be a certain overlap between the two stages in terms of time span.

[0171] (2) Determine the investment risks at different evaluation stages and determine the corresponding discount rate based on the investment risks.

[0172] For example, the discount rate in the exploration and evaluation stage is based on the financing cost of the oil company, and the discount rate in the development and production stage is based on the sum of the company's weighted average cost of capital and risk premium;

[0173] (3) Calculate the discovery cost of oil and gas resources.

[0174] If the initial stage of the exploration and evaluation phase is taken as the base date (discount point), the exploration investment will be discounted to the initial stage of the exploration and evaluation phase at the financing cost of the oil company, and the present value will be calculated; if the initial stage of the development and production phase is taken as the base date, the exploration investment will be discounted to the initial stage of the development and production phase at the financing cost of the oil company, and the terminal value will be calculated.

[0175] Among them, future value refers to the value of a certain amount of cash at a certain point in time converted to the future, commonly known as principal and interest; present value is the discounted value, also known as present discounted value (full name in English: Present Discounted Value, abbreviated as PDV), which is a sum of future money converted into present value according to a certain interest rate.

[0176] The initial stage of the exploration and evaluation stage is the starting time of the exploration and evaluation stage, and the initial stage of the development and production stage is the starting time of the development and production stage.

[0177] (4) Calculate the extraction value of oil and gas resources.

[0178] If the initial stage of the exploration and evaluation stage is taken as the base date (discount point), the net cash flow of the development and production stage is first discounted to the initial stage of the development and production stage at the sum of the company's weighted average cost of capital and the risk premium, that is, the present value is calculated, and then the present value is discounted to the initial stage of the exploration and evaluation stage at the financing cost of the oil company; if the initial stage of the development and production stage is taken as the base date (discount point), it is only necessary to discount the net cash flow of the development and production stage at the sum of the company's weighted average cost of capital and the risk premium to the initial stage of the development and production stage, that is, the present value is calculated.

[0179] (5) Calculate the investment benefit index (E) of the exploration block.

[0180] The investment benefit is the difference between the extraction value of oil and gas resources and their discovery cost. When E≥0, the project investment is considered feasible.

[0181] The calculations in steps (3), (4) and (5) can be implemented using the above-mentioned benefit model.

[0182] Furthermore, in order to verify the scientific nature of the discount rate in the above exploration project value estimation, a specific explanation is given below using a certain exploration project as an example.

[0183] (1) Project Phase Division

[0184] It is assumed that the exploration and development of the block is divided into two evaluation stages, namely the exploration and evaluation stage and the development and production stage. The estimated time for different stages is 5 years (exploration and evaluation stage) and 20 years (development and production stage), respectively. The total project life cycle is 25 years (that is, in years, 1 unit of time is 1 year). It is assumed that the two evaluation stages do not overlap in time.

[0185] (2) Project cash flow forecast

[0186] The project is expected to generate a cumulative net cash flow of US$3.75 billion over the entire project life cycle, including:

[0187] The total cash flow (investment) during the exploration, evaluation and construction periods was -US$2.82 billion, and the total net cash flow during the production period was US$6.57 billion.

[0188] Table 1 Cash flow statistics for the entire project cycle

[0189]

[0190] Table 2 Project cash flow by year (Unit: million US dollars)

[0191]

[0192]

[0193] Note: The first year includes license acquisition costs of US$5 million, and the 25th year includes abandonment costs of US$300 million.

[0194] (3) Cash flow estimation after considering capital cost

[0195] Considering that the capital cost of the exploration and evaluation stage is 4% (discount rate) and the capital cost of the development and production stage is 12% (discount rate), when the discount point is at the beginning of the exploration and evaluation stage (the beginning of the first year), the investment benefit of the exploration block of the project (the cumulative cash flow after considering different discount rates) is estimated to be US$22 million.

[0196] Since the investment benefit index is greater than 0, the exploration project is considered economically feasible.

[0197] Table 3 Cash flows after considering different discount rate indicators (Unit: million US dollars)

[0198]

[0199]

[0200] (4) Project cash flow analysis

[0201] At the time point of the initial stage of development and production (the beginning of the sixth year) (the beginning of the sixth year is taken as the discount point), the sum of the present value of cash flows in the development and production stage is US$369 million, that is, based on a 12% discount rate, the estimated development value of the discovered oil and gas resources is US$369 million, and the estimated internal rate of return of development is 15%; the sum of the final value of cash flows in the exploration and evaluation stage is -US$343 million, that is, based on a 4% discount rate in the exploration and evaluation stage, the estimated total cost of obtaining the oil and gas resources is -US$343 million. Since the estimated total expenditure of -US$343 million is less than the estimated total return of US$369 million, the exploration project is considered to be economically feasible.

[0202] Table 4 Cash flow after considering capital cost (Unit: million US dollars)

[0203] Resource discovery costs Resource development value Resource development rate of return Full cycle rate of return Exploration Evaluation -343 Development and production 369 15.0％ Full Cycle 11.9％

[0204] Note: The discount point is at the beginning of the development and production period.

[0205] Embodiment 6

[0206] In the sixth embodiment of the present invention, a computer program product is also provided. The computer program product includes a computer program or instructions. When the computer program or instructions are executed by a processor, all or part of the steps of the method for determining the investment benefit of an exploration project and / or the method for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project described in the above embodiments are implemented. This embodiment will not be repeated here.

[0207] Further, the computer program product may include one or more computer executable components configured to execute the embodiments when the program is run; the computer program product may also include a computer program tangibly contained on a readable medium, the computer program including program code for executing any method in the embodiments of the present invention. In such an embodiment, the computer program may be downloaded and installed from a network through a communication part, and / or installed from a removable medium.

[0208] Embodiment 7

[0209] In the seventh embodiment of the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium is also provided. The computer program stored in the computer-readable storage medium, when executed by one or more processors, implements all or part of the steps of the method for determining the investment benefit of an exploration project and / or the method for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project described in the above embodiments. This embodiment will not be repeated here.

[0210] Each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention may be integrated into a processing unit, or each unit may exist physically separately, or two or more units may be integrated into one unit. If the functions are implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as independent products, they may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium.

[0211] Computer readable storage media can use any combination of one or more readable media. The readable medium can be a readable signal medium or a readable storage medium. The readable storage medium can include, for example, but is not limited to, electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor systems, devices or devices, or any combination of the above. More specific examples of readable storage media (a non-exhaustive list) include: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (Random Access Memory, referred to as RAM), a read-only memory (Read-Only Memory, referred to as ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (Electrically Erasable Programmable read only memory, referred to as EPROM), an optical fiber, a portable compact disc read-only memory (Compact Disc Read-Only Memory, referred to as CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above.

[0212] Embodiment 8

[0213] In the eighth embodiment of the present invention, an electronic device 900 is further provided, and the electronic device may be a mobile phone, a computer, or a tablet computer, etc. Fig. 9 A schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention is shown in FIG. Fig. 9As shown, the electronic device 900 includes: at least one processor 901, at least one communication bus 902, a user interface 903, at least one external communication interface 904, and a memory 905. The communication bus 902 is configured to realize connection and communication between these components. The user interface 903 may include a display screen, and the external communication interface 904 may include a standard wired interface and a wireless interface. A computer program is stored in the memory 905, and the memory 905 and one or more processors 901 are connected to each other in communication. When the computer program is executed by one or more processors, the processor 901 is configured to execute the computer program stored in the memory to implement all or part of the steps of the method for determining the investment benefit of an exploration project and / or the method for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project in the above-mentioned embodiment, which will not be repeated in this embodiment.

[0214] The processor can be an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a digital signal processor (DSP), a programmable logic device (PLD), a field programmable gate array (FPGA), a controller, a microcontroller, a microprocessor or other electronic components, and is used to execute all or part of the steps of the method for determining the investment benefit of an exploration project and / or the method for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project described in the above embodiments, which will not be repeated in this embodiment.

[0215] The memory can be implemented by any type of volatile or non-volatile storage device or a combination of them, such as static random access memory (SRAM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM), programmable read-only memory (PROM), read-only memory (ROM), magnetic storage, flash memory, magnetic disk or optical disk.

[0216] The method, device and electronic device for determining the investment benefit of an exploration project provided by the present invention, when determining the investment benefit of an exploration block of an exploration project, divides the exploration project into multiple evaluation stages, and determines the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage, and then determines the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project according to the preset benefit model and the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage, that is, when the discounted cash flow method is used to solve the value of the exploration block, the present invention provides a more scientific and reasonable method for determining the value of the discount rate index, and adopts different discount rate index values ​​at different stages to reflect the different requirements for the risk-return rate of investment at different stages. Compared with only adopting a single discount rate to predict the investment benefit of the project, the present invention can timely reflect the changes in the investor's expectations of the project's income when the investment risk changes, thereby more accurately predicting the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project. When judging the investment feasibility of the target exploration project, firstly, by adopting different discount rates at different stages to more accurately predict the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project, and then judging the investment feasibility of the target exploration project according to the predicted exploration investment benefit of the target exploration project, thereby more accurately judging the investment feasibility of the exploration project.

[0217] The terms and expressions used in the present specification are for illustration only and are not intended to be limiting. It should be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes may be made to the details of the above embodiments without departing from the basic principles of the disclosed embodiments. Therefore, the scope of the present invention is determined solely by the claims, in which, unless otherwise indicated, all terms should be understood in the broadest reasonable sense.

Claims

1. A method for determining investment benefits of an exploration project, characterized in that: The method comprises: Divide exploration projects into evaluation phases; Determine the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage; The investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project is determined based on a preset benefit model and a discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage.

2. The method for determining investment benefits of exploration projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: The multiple evaluation stages include: Exploration and evaluation stage and development and production stage.

3. The method for determining investment benefits of exploration projects according to claim 2, characterized in that: Determining the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage includes: The company's financing cost is used as the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage; The sum of the company's weighted average cost of capital and the preset risk premium is taken as the discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage.

4. The method for determining investment benefits of exploration projects according to claim 2, characterized in that: In the case where the initial stage of the exploration and evaluation phase is used as the discount point, the preset benefit model includes: Among them, E1 is the investment benefit of the exploration block; NCF e is the net cash flow of the e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the exploration and evaluation stage; NCF d is the net cash flow of the dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the development and production stage; i e is the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage; i d The discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage; l is the total number of unit times included in the exploration and evaluation phase; m is the unit time of the starting time point of development investment in the development and production stage; n is the total number of time units included in the life cycle of an exploration project.

5. The method for determining investment benefits of exploration projects according to claim 2, characterized in that: In the case where the initial stage of the development and production phase is used as the discount point, the benefit model includes: Among them, E2 is the investment benefit of the exploration block; NCF e is the net cash flow of the e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The e-th unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the exploration and evaluation stage; NCF d is the net cash flow of the dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project. The dth unit time in the life cycle of the exploration project belongs to the development and production stage; i e is the discount rate corresponding to the exploration and evaluation stage; i d The discount rate corresponding to the development and production stage; l is the total number of unit times included in the exploration and evaluation phase; m is the unit time of the starting time point of development investment in the development and production stage; n is the total number of time units included in the life cycle of an exploration project.

6. A method for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project, characterized in that: The method comprises: Determine the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project according to a preset benefit determination method; wherein the preset benefit determination method includes any one of claims 1 to 5; When the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project is not less than a preset threshold, it is determined that the target exploration project has investment feasibility.

7. A device for determining investment benefits of an exploration project, characterized in that: The device comprises: Phase division module, used to divide exploration projects into multiple evaluation phases; A discount rate determination module is used to determine the discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage according to the investment risk of each evaluation stage; The benefit determination module is used to determine the investment benefit of the exploration block of the exploration project according to a preset benefit model and a discount rate corresponding to each evaluation stage.

8. A device for determining the investment feasibility of an exploration project, characterized in that: The device comprises: An investment benefit determination module, used to determine the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project according to a preset benefit determination method; wherein the preset benefit determination method includes any one of claims 1 to 5; The investment feasibility determination module is used to determine whether the target exploration project has investment feasibility when the investment benefit of the exploration block of the target exploration project is not less than a preset threshold.

9. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer program stored in the computer-readable storage medium, when executed by one or more processors, implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

10. An electronic device, characterized in that: The method comprises a memory and one or more processors, wherein a computer program is stored in the memory, and when the computer program is executed by the one or more processors, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6 are performed.

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