Power transmission and distribution price verification method considering power utilization difference of urban and rural power grids

Abstract

The invention relates to a power transmission and distribution price verification method considering urban and rural power grid power utilization difference, and belongs to the technical field of electric power. Comprising the following steps: collecting annual actual investment amount, electricity sales amount, existing assets and other information of urban and rural power grids of an electric power company; utilizing an exponential smoothing method to predict future electricity sales quantity of the urban power grid and the rural power grid; calculating the permitted income of the urban and rural power grids based on the existing assets and investment conditions; and calculating the provincial-level power transmission and distribution price according to the predicted power sale quantity condition and the permitted income of the urban and rural power grids. According to the method, the difference of the power utilization demands of the urban power grid and the rural power grid is particularly considered, the power transmission and distribution price verification system considering the power utilization difference of the urban power grid and the rural power grid is established, and the power sale quantity of the urban power grid and the rural power grid is predicted by using the exponential smoothing method, so that accurate verification of the power transmission and distribution price is realized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of electric power technology, and specifically relates to a method for determining transmission and distribution prices that takes into account the differences in electricity consumption between urban and rural power grids. Background Art

[0002] In the electricity market, urban and rural power grids have significantly different electricity demands due to their different geographical locations and economic development levels. Specifically, urban power grids usually have large electricity consumption and concentrated loads, while rural power grids have relatively less electricity consumption and dispersed loads. In the determination of transmission and distribution prices, traditional methods of electricity quantity determination often rely on average costs or historical data, which is difficult to accurately reflect the current market supply and demand situation. In China, there are relatively few studies on the determination of transmission and distribution prices that take into account electricity quantity differentiation, especially in considering the differentiation of electricity consumption between urban and rural power grids, there are still certain research gaps and challenges. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the problems of the prior art and provide a method for determining the transmission and distribution price taking into account the differences in electricity consumption between urban and rural power grids. Based on historical data, the method uses an exponential smoothing method to more accurately predict the electricity sales volume of urban and rural power grids, thereby effectively reducing the error in electricity determination and improving the accuracy of transmission and distribution price determination.

[0004] To achieve the above object, the technical solution of the present invention is: a method for determining transmission and distribution prices taking into account the differences in urban and rural power grid electricity consumption, comprising:

[0005] S1. Information collection;

[0006] S2, electricity sales forecast;

[0007] S3. Calculation of permitted income of urban network;

[0008] S4. Calculation of permitted income from the rural network;

[0009] S5. Calculation of provincial transmission and distribution prices.

[0010] In one embodiment of the present invention, step S1 is specifically implemented as follows:

[0011] S11. Information collection on actual annual investment in urban and rural power grids of power companies;

[0012] S12. Electricity sales information collection of urban and rural power grids of power companies in the past five years;

[0013] S13. Collection of information on the net value of existing fixed assets of urban and rural power grids of power companies;

[0014] S14. Information collection on the net value of available assets of urban and rural power grids of power companies;

[0015] S15. Other information collection of the power company.

[0016] In one embodiment of the present invention, step S2 includes:

[0017] S21. Calculate the growth rate of electricity sales in urban and rural power grids in the past five years;

[0018]

[0019]

[0020] Among them, Q CQ0 , Q CQ1 , Q CQ2 , Q CQ3 , Q CQ4 The electricity sales of the city grid in the past five years, CQ1 ,y CQ2 ,y CQ3 ,y CQ4 They are the growth rates of electricity sales in the second, third, fourth and fifth years of the urban network respectively;

[0021]

[0022] Among them, Q NC0 , Q NC1 , Q NC2 , Q NC3 , Q NC4 The electricity sales of the rural power grid in the past five years, NC1 ,y NC2 ,y NC3 ,y NC4 They are the growth rates of electricity sales in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th years of the rural power grid respectively.

[0023] In one embodiment of the present invention, step S2 further includes:

[0024] S22, according to the exponential smoothing method F (t) =αy (t-1) +(1-α)F (t-1) The future growth rates of electricity sales in urban and rural power grids are weighted averaged respectively, that is, the urban power grid smoothing coefficient α with the minimum error is calculated using the mean square error and planning solver. CQ , Rural power grid smoothing coefficient α NC ; Then calculate the weighted average growth rate of urban and rural power grid electricity sales, as follows:

[0025] Weighted average growth rate of urban grid electricity sales:

[0026]

[0027] Weighted average growth rate of rural power sales:

[0028]

[0029] In one embodiment of the present invention, step S2 further includes:

[0030] S23, urban and rural power sales forecast:

[0031] City grid electricity sales:

[0032] Q CQ(t) =Q CQ0 ×F CQ(t)

[0033] Rural power grid electricity sales:

[0034] Q NC(t) =Q NC0 ×F NC(t) .

[0035] In one embodiment of the present invention, step S3 is specifically implemented as follows:

[0036] Permitted cost of urban network = urban network depreciation fee + urban network operation and maintenance fee;

[0037] Permitted income of urban network = effective assets that can be provided for urban network × permitted rate of return;

[0038] City network tax = city network enterprise income tax + city network urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharge;

[0039] Urban network permitted income = urban network permitted cost + urban network permitted income + urban network tax.

[0040] In one embodiment of the present invention, step S4 is specifically implemented as follows:

[0041] Rural power grid permitted cost = rural power grid depreciation fee + rural power grid operation and maintenance fee;

[0042] Permitted income of rural power grid = effective assets that can be provided for by rural power grid × permitted rate of return;

[0043] Rural power grid tax = rural power grid enterprise income tax + rural power grid urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharge;

[0044] Rural grid permission income = rural grid permission cost + rural grid permission income + rural grid tax.

[0045] In one embodiment of the present invention, step S5 is specifically implemented as follows:

[0046] Total permitted income = permitted income for urban network + permitted income for rural network;

[0047] Total electricity sales = urban power grid sales + rural power grid sales;

[0048] Provincial transmission and distribution price = total permitted revenue ÷ total electricity sales.

[0049] The present invention also provides a transmission and distribution price determination system that takes into account the differentiated electricity consumption in urban and rural power grids, including a memory, a processor, and computer program instructions stored in the memory and capable of being executed by the processor. When the processor executes the computer program instructions, the method steps described above can be implemented.

[0050] The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which computer program instructions that can be executed by a processor are stored. When the processor executes the computer program instructions, the method steps described above can be implemented.

[0051] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: based on historical data, the method of the present invention uses the exponential smoothing method to more accurately predict the electricity sales situation of urban and rural power grids, thereby effectively reducing the error in electricity verification and improving the accuracy of transmission and distribution price verification. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0052] Figure 1 The figure is a flow chart of the method of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0053] The technical solution of the present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0054] It should be noted that the following detailed descriptions are exemplary and are intended to provide further explanation of the present application. Unless otherwise specified, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meanings as those commonly understood by those skilled in the art to which the present application belongs.

[0055] It should be noted that the terms used herein are only for describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the exemplary embodiments according to the present application. As used herein, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, the singular form is also intended to include the plural form. In addition, it should be understood that when the terms "comprise" and / or "include" are used in this specification, it indicates the presence of features, steps, operations, devices, components and / or combinations thereof.

[0056] The present invention provides a method for determining transmission and distribution prices taking into account the differences in urban and rural power grid electricity consumption, comprising:

[0057] S1. Information collection;

[0058] S2, electricity sales forecast;

[0059] S3. Calculation of permitted income of urban network;

[0060] S4. Calculation of permitted income from the rural network;

[0061] S5. Calculation of provincial transmission and distribution prices.

[0062] The following are specific implementation examples of the present invention.

[0063] like Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a method for determining transmission and distribution prices that takes into account the differences in urban and rural power grid electricity consumption, including:

[0064] S1. Information Collection

[0065] 1) Information collection on actual annual investment in urban and rural power grids of power companies;

[0066] 2) Collection of electricity sales information of urban and rural power grids of power companies in the past five years;

[0067] 3) Collection of information on the net value of existing fixed assets of urban and rural power grids of power companies;

[0068] 4) Collection of information on the net value of available assets of urban and rural power grids of power companies;

[0069] 5) Other information collection of the power company.

[0070] S2. Electricity Sales Forecast

[0071] 6) Calculate the growth rate of electricity sales in urban and rural power grids in the past five years;

[0072]

[0073]

[0074] Among them, Q CQ0 , Q CQ1 , Q CQ2 , Q CQ3 , Q CQ4 The electricity sales of the city grid in the past five years, CQ1 ,y CQ2 ,y CQ3 ,y CQ4 They are the growth rates of electricity sales in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th years of the urban grid respectively.

[0075]

[0076] Among them, Q NC0 , Q NC1 , Q NC2 , Q NC3 , Q NC4 The electricity sales of the rural power grid in the past five years, NC1 ,y NC2 ,y NC3 ,y NC4 They are the growth rates of electricity sales in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th years of the rural power grid respectively.

[0077] 7) According to the exponential smoothing method F (t)=αy (t-1) +(1-α)F (t-1) Take the weighted average of the future growth rates of electricity sales for urban and rural power grids (hereinafter collectively referred to as “weighted average growth rates of electricity sales”);

[0078] First, use the mean square error and planning solution tool to calculate the urban network smoothing coefficient α with the minimum error CQ , Rural power grid smoothing coefficient α NC

[0079] Then calculate the weighted average growth rate of urban and rural power grid sales

[0080] Weighted average growth rate of urban grid electricity sales:

[0081]

[0082] Weighted average growth rate of rural power sales:

[0083]

[0084] 8) Forecast of electricity sales in urban and rural power grids.

[0085] City grid electricity sales:

[0086] Q CQ(t) =Q CQ0 ×F CQ(t)

[0087] Rural power grid electricity sales:

[0088] Q NC(t) =Q NCO ×F NC(t)

[0089] S3. Calculation of permitted income of urban network

[0090] 9) Calculation of permitted income of urban network;

[0091] Permitted cost of urban network = urban network depreciation fee + urban network operation and maintenance fee;

[0092] Permitted income of urban network = effective assets that can be provided for urban network × permitted rate of return;

[0093] City network tax = city network enterprise income tax + city network urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharge;

[0094] Urban network permitted income = urban network permitted cost + urban network permitted income + urban network tax.

[0095] S4. Calculation of permitted income from rural power grid

[0096] 10) Calculation of permitted income from agricultural power grid.

[0097] Rural power grid permitted cost = rural power grid depreciation fee + rural power grid operation and maintenance fee;

[0098] Permitted income of rural power grid = effective assets that can be provided for by rural power grid × permitted rate of return;

[0099] Rural power grid tax = rural power grid enterprise income tax + rural power grid urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharge;

[0100] Rural grid permission income = rural grid permission cost + rural grid permission income + rural grid tax.

[0101] S5. Calculation of provincial transmission and distribution prices

[0102] 11) Total permitted income = permitted income from urban network + permitted income from rural network;

[0103] 12) Total electricity sales = urban power grid sales + rural power grid sales;

[0104] 13) Provincial transmission and distribution price = total permitted revenue ÷ total electricity sales.

[0105] The present invention also provides a transmission and distribution price determination system that takes into account the differentiated electricity consumption in urban and rural power grids, including a memory, a processor, and computer program instructions stored in the memory and capable of being executed by the processor. When the processor executes the computer program instructions, the method steps described above can be implemented.

[0106] The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which computer program instructions that can be executed by a processor are stored. When the processor executes the computer program instructions, the method steps described above can be implemented.

[0107] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented in one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that include computer-usable program code.

[0108] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0109] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer readable memory produce an article of manufacture including an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0110] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0111] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and does not limit the present invention in other forms. Any technician familiar with the profession may use the above disclosed technical content to change or modify it into an equivalent embodiment with equivalent changes. However, any simple modification, equivalent change and modification made to the above embodiment according to the technical essence of the present invention without departing from the technical solution of the present invention still belongs to the protection scope of the technical solution of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining transmission and distribution prices taking into account the differences in urban and rural power grid electricity consumption, characterized in that: include: S1. Information collection; S2, electricity sales forecast; S3. Calculation of permitted income of urban network; S4. Calculation of permitted income from the rural network; S5. Calculation of provincial transmission and distribution prices.

2. A method for determining transmission and distribution prices considering the difference in urban and rural power consumption according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step S1 is specifically implemented as follows: S11. Information collection on actual annual investment in urban and rural power grids of power companies; S12. Electricity sales information collection of urban and rural power grids of power companies in the past five years; S13. Collection of information on the net value of existing fixed assets of urban and rural power grids of power companies; S14. Information collection on the net value of available assets of urban and rural power grids of power companies; S15. Other information collection of the power company.

3. A method for determining transmission and distribution prices considering the difference in urban and rural power consumption according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step S2 comprises: S21. Calculate the growth rate of electricity sales in urban and rural power grids in the past five years; Among them, Q CQ0 , Q CQ1 , Q CQ2 , Q CQ3 , Q CQ4 The electricity sales of the city grid in the past five years, CQ1 ,y CQ2 ,y CQ3 ,y CQ4 They are the growth rates of electricity sales in the second, third, fourth and fifth years of the urban network respectively; Among them, Q NC0 , Q NC1 , Q NC2 , Q NC3 , Q NC4 The electricity sales of the rural power grid in the past five years, NC1 ,y NC2 ,y NC3 ,y NC4 They are the growth rates of electricity sales in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th years of the rural power grid respectively.

4. A method for determining transmission and distribution prices considering the difference in urban and rural power consumption according to claim 3, characterized in that: Step S2 further includes: S22, according to the exponential smoothing method F ( t ) =αy ( t- 1) +(1-α)F ( t- 1) The future growth rates of electricity sales in urban and rural power grids are weighted averaged respectively, that is, the urban power grid smoothing coefficient α with the minimum error is calculated using the mean square error and planning solver. CQ , Rural grid smoothing coefficient α NC ; Then calculate the weighted average growth rate of urban and rural power grid electricity sales, as follows: Weighted average growth rate of urban grid electricity sales: Weighted average growth rate of rural power sales:

5. A method for determining transmission and distribution prices considering the difference in urban and rural power consumption according to claim 4, characterized in that: Step S2 further includes: S23, urban and rural power sales forecast: City grid electricity sales: Q CQ(t) =Q CQ0 ×F CQ(t) Rural power grid electricity sales: Q NC(t) =Q NC0 ×F NC(t) 。 6. A method for determining transmission and distribution prices considering the difference in urban and rural power grid electricity consumption according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step S3 is specifically implemented as follows: Permitted cost of urban network = urban network depreciation fee + urban network operation and maintenance fee; Permitted income of urban network = effective assets that can be provided for urban network × permitted rate of return; City network tax = city network enterprise income tax + city network urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharge; Urban network permitted income = urban network permitted cost + urban network permitted income + urban network tax.

7. A method for determining transmission and distribution prices considering the difference in urban and rural power grid electricity consumption according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step S4 is specifically implemented as follows: Rural power grid permitted cost = rural power grid depreciation fee + rural power grid operation and maintenance fee; Permitted income of rural power grid = effective assets that can be provided for by rural power grid × permitted rate of return; Rural power grid tax = rural power grid enterprise income tax + rural power grid urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharge; Rural grid permission income = rural grid permission cost + rural grid permission income + rural grid tax.

8. A method for determining transmission and distribution prices considering the difference in urban and rural power grid electricity consumption according to claim 5, characterized in that: Step S5 is specifically implemented as follows: Total permitted income = permitted income for urban network + permitted income for rural network; Total electricity sales = urban power grid sales + rural power grid sales; Provincial transmission and distribution price = total permitted revenue ÷ total electricity sales.

9. A transmission and distribution price determination system considering the difference in urban and rural power grid electricity consumption, characterized in that: The method comprises a memory, a processor and computer program instructions stored in the memory and capable of being executed by the processor. When the processor executes the computer program instructions, the method steps as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 8 can be implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon computer program instructions that can be executed by a processor, and when the processor executes the computer program instructions, the method steps according to any one of claims 1 to 8 can be implemented.

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