Multi-project oil and gas yield prediction system

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of oil and gas reservoir engineering, and relates to a multi-project oil and gas yield prediction system, which comprises a database and algorithm module, a coupling quantification module, a scheme management and early warning module and a scheme analysis and prediction module, and is characterized in that the database and algorithm module is used for predicting plan yields of sub-projects; the coupling quantification module is used for quantifying the external environment influence and correcting a sub-project plan yield prediction result; the scheme management and early warning module is used for generating a sub-project monthly plan yield and a sub-project annual plan yield, and performing early warning according to a comparison result of the sub-project annual plan yield and the sub-project monthly plan yield; and the scheme analysis and prediction module is used for positioning different sub-items according to the comparison result and generating a difference analysis report. The system quantifies the influence of various non-technical factors on the yield, automatically matches the suitable yield, and achieves the simultaneous prediction of the yields of a plurality of sub-projects.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of oil and gas reservoir engineering, and in particular relates to a multi-project oil and gas production prediction system. Background Art

[0002] There is a lot of data on overseas oil and gas development projects in production, and the external situation is complex and changeable at this stage. The production and operation of the projects are greatly affected by sanctions, production restrictions, natural disasters, accidents and other non-technical factors. The traditional analysis and prediction system needs to predict many projects in production one by one, and the entire workflow is labor-intensive; at the same time, the prediction is based on the traditional law of oil and gas reservoir decline, which assumes that the project can be produced normally and stably. It can only be accurately predicted, which is inconsistent with the actual situation of abnormal suspension and reduction of production caused by the complex external situation overseas. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of the above problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows: a multi-project oil and gas production prediction system, the system includes a database and algorithm module, a coupling quantification module, a solution management and early warning module and a solution analysis and prediction module, wherein:

[0004] The database and algorithm module are used to predict the planned output of each project;

[0005] The coupling quantification module is used to quantify the external environmental impact and correct the sub-project planned output forecast results;

[0006] The program management and early warning module is used to generate monthly planned production and annual planned production of each project, and to issue early warnings based on the comparison results between the annual planned production of each project and the monthly planned production of each project;

[0007] The solution analysis and prediction module is used to locate sub-items with differences and generate a difference analysis report based on the comparison results.

[0008] Furthermore, the database and algorithm module are used to predict the planned output of each project, including:

[0009] The database and algorithm module are used to construct a production history database for each project;

[0010] Prepare oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithms;

[0011] The oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithm is matched with the sub-project type to perform sub-project planned production prediction under ideal conditions.

[0012] Furthermore, the database and algorithm module includes a construction unit, a compilation unit and a first prediction unit, wherein:

[0013] The construction unit is used to construct a production history database for each project;

[0014] The compilation unit is used to compile an oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithm;

[0015] The first prediction unit is used to match the oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithm with the sub-project type to perform sub-project planned production prediction under ideal conditions.

[0016] Furthermore, the coupling quantification module is used to quantify the external environmental impact, and the correction of the sub-project planned output forecast results includes:

[0017] The coupling quantification module is used to quantify the impact of the external environment on the sub-project by setting the production parameters. The external environment includes oil price trends, production restriction policies of resource-rich countries, production decline analysis, impact of political sanctions, impact of accidental accidents, new well measures effect analysis, project production bottleneck analysis, capacity construction analysis and operating environment analysis, and to correct the sub-project planned production forecast results under ideal conditions.

[0018] Further, the coupling quantization module includes a quantization unit and a correction unit, wherein;

[0019] The quantification unit is used to quantify the impact of the external environment on the sub-project by setting the production parameters, and the external environment includes oil price trends, production restriction policies of resource-rich countries, production decline analysis, political sanctions, accidental accidents, new well measures effect analysis, project production bottleneck analysis, capacity construction analysis and business environment analysis;

[0020] The correction unit is used to correct the forecast result of the planned output of each project under ideal conditions.

[0021] Furthermore, the solution management and early warning module is used to generate the monthly planned production of each project and the annual planned production of each project, and to issue an early warning based on the comparison result between the annual planned production of each project and the monthly planned production of each project, including:

[0022] The program management and early warning module is used to generate the planned production of each project and each month according to the revised results of the planned production forecast of each project under ideal conditions;

[0023] Calculate the planned output of each sub-project for the whole year based on the planned output of each sub-project by month;

[0024] Compare the planned annual output of each project and the planned monthly output of each project;

[0025] Based on the comparison results of the sub-project's annual planned output and the sub-project's monthly planned output, the sub-projects with output differences are located and users are warned.

[0026] Furthermore, the sub-projects with production differences are located based on the comparison results of the annual planned production of the sub-projects and the monthly planned production of the sub-projects, and an alarm is issued to the user, including:

[0027] If the deviation between the planned output of a sub-project for the whole year and the planned output of a sub-project for each month is greater than 5%, the sub-project with the output difference will be located and the user will be warned.

[0028] Furthermore, the solution management and early warning module includes a generation unit, a calculation unit, a comparison unit and an early warning unit; wherein,

[0029] The generating unit is used to generate the planned production of each sub-project and each month according to the revised result of the planned production forecast of each sub-project under ideal conditions;

[0030] The calculation unit is used to calculate the planned output of the sub-project for the whole year according to the planned output of the sub-project by month;

[0031] The comparison unit is used to compare the planned annual output of each project and the planned monthly output of each project;

[0032] The early warning unit is used to locate the sub-projects with production differences based on the comparison results of the planned production of the sub-projects for the whole year and the planned production of the sub-projects by month, and to warn the users.

[0033] Furthermore, the solution analysis and prediction module is used to locate the sub-items with differences and generate a difference analysis report according to the comparison results, including:

[0034] The program analysis and prediction module is used to calculate the difference between the current monthly completed output of the sub-project and the annual planned output of the sub-project based on the comparison result, and automatically split the difference output into the remaining months of the year to generate a prediction result of the completed output plan;

[0035] Analyze the forecast results of the completed production plan and the planned production by project and month, locate the sub-projects with differences and generate a difference analysis report.

[0036] Further, the solution analysis and prediction module includes a second prediction unit and an analysis unit, wherein;

[0037] The second prediction unit is used to calculate the difference between the completed output of the sub-project in the current month and the planned output of the sub-project for the whole year according to the comparison result, and automatically split the difference output into the remaining months of the whole year to generate a prediction result of the completed output plan;

[0038] The analysis unit is used to analyze the forecast results of the completed production plan and the planned production by project and month, locate the sub-projects with differences and generate a difference analysis report.

[0039] The present invention proposes a multi-project oil and gas production prediction system, which embeds the production calculation method of each sub-project into the system in the form of an algorithm. On the basis of retaining the original prediction method of oil and gas reservoir engineering, it quantifies the impact of various non-technical factors on production, automatically matches the appropriate production, realizes the simultaneous prediction of multiple sub-project production, and automatically calculates and accumulates the production of all projects, ultimately achieving rapid and accurate prediction of production.

[0040] Other features and advantages of the present invention will be described in the following description, and part of them will become obvious from the description, or be understood by practicing the present invention. The purpose and other advantages of the present invention can be realized and obtained through the description and the accompanying drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0041] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0042] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a multi-project oil and gas production prediction system in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0043] Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of a database and an algorithm module in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0044] Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of a coupled quantization module in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0045] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of a solution management and early warning module in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0046] Figure 5 Schematic diagram of a solution analysis and prediction module in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0047] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0048] A multi-project oil and gas production prediction system designed by the present invention is applied to the overall prediction of the annual production of multiple oil and gas projects in production. It comprehensively considers the oil and gas reservoir development rules of each sub-project, quantifies external influencing factors, automatically generates the annual production prediction plan of the sub-project, and quickly predicts the overall production changes of multiple projects.

[0049] Specifically, Figure 1 As shown, a multi-project oil and gas production prediction system includes a database and algorithm module 1, a coupling quantification module 2, a solution management and early warning module 3 and a solution analysis and prediction module 4, wherein;

[0050] The database and algorithm module 1 are used to predict the planned output of each project;

[0051] The coupling quantification module 2 is used to quantify the external environmental impact and correct the sub-project planned output forecast results;

[0052] The program management and early warning module 3 is used to generate the monthly planned production of each project and the annual planned production of each project, and to issue an early warning based on the comparison result between the annual planned production of each project and the monthly planned production of each project;

[0053] The solution analysis and prediction module 4 is used to locate the sub-items with differences and generate a difference analysis report according to the comparison results.

[0054] In the embodiment of the present invention, an international oil company is taken as an example to introduce in detail the working principle of each module of the multi-project oil and gas production prediction system.

[0055] Specifically, the database and algorithm module 1 is used to establish a production history database for each sub-project, and at the same time establish database tables of different levels such as daily reports, weekly reports, and monthly reports, and store parameters such as project geological characteristics and development methods in the production history database; the production history database contains production history data of various overseas projects. Then, according to the user's management caliber, different sub-project production calculation methods are established, and oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithms for different reservoir types and development methods are compiled. Combined with the production history data in the production history database, the oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithm is realized. One-to-one correspondence between the oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithm and different sub-project types is achieved, and the sub-project planned production prediction under ideal conditions is carried out.

[0056] like Figure 2 As shown, the above-mentioned database and algorithm module 1 includes a construction unit 11, a compilation unit 12 and a first prediction unit 13, wherein the construction unit 11 is used to construct a production history database of a sub-project; the compilation unit 12 is used to compile an oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithm; the first prediction unit 13 is used to correspond the oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithm to the sub-project type, and to perform a sub-project planned production prediction under ideal conditions.

[0057] Specifically, the coupling quantification module 2 is used to quantify the impact of external environmental factors faced by each sub-project on the annual output of the project, including: oil price trends, production restriction policies of resource-rich countries, production decline analysis, impact of political sanctions, impact of accidental accidents, new well measures effect analysis, project production bottleneck analysis, capacity construction analysis, business environment analysis and other 10 major sub-projects directly affecting oil and gas production. The impact of the external environment on oil and gas production is quantified by setting production parameters; then the project planned production forecast results under ideal conditions are corrected to make the forecast results of each project closer to the actual production situation.

[0058] like Figure 3 As shown, the coupling quantification module 2 includes a quantification unit 21 and a correction unit 22, wherein; the quantification unit 21 is used to quantify the impact of the external environment on the sub-project in the form of production parameter setting, and the external environment includes oil price trends, production restriction policies of resource-rich countries, production decline analysis, political sanctions, accidental accidents, new well measures effect analysis, project production bottleneck analysis, capacity construction analysis and business environment analysis; the correction unit 22 is used to correct the sub-project planned production forecast results under ideal conditions.

[0059] Specifically, the scheme management and early warning module 3 is used to predict the output of each sub-project according to the oil and gas reservoir engineering algorithm and the production history data in the database. At the same time, the coupled quantitative factor algorithm module will adjust and correct the prediction results, and finally form the predicted production of all sub-projects by month; then, combined with the CNPC management caliber algorithm built into the production history database, it is secondary calculated to obtain the predicted results of the annual planned production of each sub-project, and compared with the monthly planned production of the sub-project. If the deviation between the annual planned production of the sub-project and the monthly planned production of the sub-project is greater than 5%, the system automatically locates the project and warns the user; at the same time, the prediction schemes of multiple different stages can be compared horizontally to find the reasons for the production differences and analyze the main difference factors; the system can automatically save the prediction schemes of each stage for easy query and analysis at any time.

[0060] like Figure 4 As shown, the above-mentioned scheme management and early warning module 3 includes a generating unit 31, a calculating unit 32, a comparing unit 33 and an early warning unit 34; wherein, the generating unit 31 is used to generate the planned output of the sub-project by month according to the revised result of the planned output forecast of the sub-project under ideal conditions; the calculating unit 32 is used to calculate the planned output of the sub-project for the whole year according to the planned output of the sub-project by month; the comparing unit 33 is used to compare the planned output of the sub-project for the whole year with the planned output of the sub-project by month; the early warning unit 34 is used to locate the sub-project with the output difference according to the comparison result of the planned output of the sub-project for the whole year and the planned output of the sub-project by month, and to warn the user.

[0061] Specifically, the solution analysis and forecasting module 4 is used to calculate the difference between the completed output of the sub-project in the current month and the planned output of the sub-project for the whole year based on the comparison results, and automatically split the difference output into the remaining months of the whole year to generate the forecast results of the completed output plan; analyze the forecast results of the completed output plan and the planned output of the sub-project by month, locate the sub-projects with differences and generate a difference analysis report.

[0062] like Figure 5 As shown, the above-mentioned scheme analysis and forecasting module 4 includes a second forecasting unit 41 and an analysis unit 42, wherein the second forecasting unit 41 is used to calculate the difference between the current monthly completed output of the sub-project and the planned output of the sub-project for the whole year according to the comparison result, and automatically split the difference output into the remaining months of the whole year to generate a forecast result of the completed output plan; the analysis unit 42 is used to analyze the forecast result of the completed output plan and the planned output of the sub-project by month, locate the sub-project with differences and generate a difference analysis report.

[0063] Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent substitutions for some of the technical features therein; and these modifications or substitutions do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A multi-project oil and gas production prediction system, characterized in that: The system includes a database and algorithm module, a coupling quantification module, a solution management and early warning module, and a solution analysis and prediction module, wherein: The database and algorithm module are used to predict the planned output of each project; The coupling quantification module is used to quantify the external environmental impact and correct the sub-project planned output forecast results; The program management and early warning module is used to generate monthly planned production and annual planned production of each project, and to issue early warnings based on the comparison results between the annual planned production of each project and the monthly planned production of each project; The solution analysis and prediction module is used to locate sub-items with differences and generate a difference analysis report based on the comparison results.

2. The system according to claim 1, characterized in that The database and algorithm modules used to predict the planned output of each project include: The database and algorithm module are used to construct a production history database for each project; Prepare oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithms; The oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithm is matched with the sub-project type to perform sub-project planned production prediction under ideal conditions.

3. The system according to claim 2, characterized in that The database and algorithm module includes a construction unit, a compilation unit and a first prediction unit, wherein: The construction unit is used to construct a production history database for each project; The compilation unit is used to compile an oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithm; The first prediction unit is used to match the oil and gas reservoir production prediction algorithm with the sub-project type to perform sub-project planned production prediction under ideal conditions.

4. The system according to claim 2 or 3, characterized in that: The coupling quantification module is used to quantify the external environmental impact, and the correction of the sub-project planned output forecast results includes: The coupling quantification module is used to quantify the impact of the external environment on the sub-project by setting the production parameters. The external environment includes oil price trends, production restriction policies of resource-rich countries, production decline analysis, impact of political sanctions, impact of accidental accidents, new well measures effect analysis, project production bottleneck analysis, capacity construction analysis and operating environment analysis, and to correct the sub-project planned production forecast results under ideal conditions.

5. The system according to claim 4, characterized in that The coupled quantization module includes a quantization unit and a correction unit, wherein; The quantification unit is used to quantify the impact of the external environment on the sub-project by setting the production parameters, and the external environment includes oil price trends, production restriction policies of resource-rich countries, production decline analysis, political sanctions, accidental accidents, new well measures effect analysis, project production bottleneck analysis, capacity construction analysis and business environment analysis; The correction unit is used to correct the forecast result of the planned output of each project under ideal conditions.

6. The system according to claim 5, characterized in that The program management and early warning module is used to generate the monthly planned production of each project and the annual planned production of each project, and to issue early warnings based on the comparison results between the annual planned production of each project and the monthly planned production of each project, including: The program management and early warning module is used to generate the planned production of each project and each month according to the revised results of the planned production forecast of each project under ideal conditions; Calculate the planned output of each sub-project for the whole year based on the planned output of each sub-project by month; Compare the planned annual output of each project and the planned monthly output of each project; Based on the comparison results of the sub-project's annual planned output and the sub-project's monthly planned output, the sub-projects with output differences are located and users are warned.

7. The system according to claim 6, characterized in that The method of locating the sub-project with production difference according to the comparison result of the annual planned production of the sub-project and the monthly planned production of the sub-project, and giving an alarm to the user includes: If the deviation between the planned output of a sub-project for the whole year and the planned output of a sub-project for each month is greater than 5%, the sub-project with the output difference will be located and the user will be warned.

8. The system according to claim 6 or 7, characterized in that: The solution management and early warning module includes a generation unit, a calculation unit, a comparison unit and an early warning unit; wherein, The generating unit is used to generate the planned production of each sub-project and each month according to the revised result of the planned production forecast of each sub-project under ideal conditions; The calculation unit is used to calculate the planned output of the sub-project for the whole year according to the planned output of the sub-project by month; The comparison unit is used to compare the planned annual output of each project and the planned monthly output of each project; The early warning unit is used to locate the sub-projects with production differences based on the comparison results of the planned production of the sub-projects for the whole year and the planned production of the sub-projects by month, and to warn the users.

9. The system according to claim 8, characterized in that The solution analysis and prediction module is used to locate the sub-items with differences and generate a difference analysis report according to the comparison results, including: The program analysis and prediction module is used to calculate the difference between the current monthly completed output of the sub-project and the annual planned output of the sub-project based on the comparison result, and automatically split the difference output into the remaining months of the year to generate a prediction result of the completed output plan; Analyze the forecast results of the completed production plan and the planned production by project and month, locate the sub-projects with differences and generate a difference analysis report.

10. The system according to claim 9, characterized in that The solution analysis and prediction module includes a second prediction unit and an analysis unit, wherein; The second prediction unit is used to calculate the difference between the completed output of the sub-project in the current month and the planned output of the sub-project for the whole year according to the comparison result, and automatically split the difference output into the remaining months of the whole year to generate a prediction result of the completed output plan; The analysis unit is used to analyze the forecast results of the completed production plan and the planned production by project and month, locate the sub-projects with differences and generate a difference analysis report.

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