Power spot market dynamic supervision risk evaluation method based on ISM-DEMATEL

Abstract

The invention discloses a power spot market dynamic supervision risk evaluation method based on ISM-DEMATEL, and the method comprises the steps: firstly obtaining a plurality of initial power spot market KPI supervision indexes, constructing an adjacency matrix according to the mutual influence relation of the indexes, and obtaining an overall influence matrix according to the adjacency matrix; then, a DEMATEL method is adopted, expert scoring is carried out based on a four-degree integer level, and the importance weight of each electric power spot market KPI supervision index is determined; and finally, according to the sorting of the importance weights, performing secondary screening on the KPI supervision indexes of the electric power spot market from the importance degree. According to the method, two dimensions of structure importance and importance degree are considered, the advantages of an interpretation structure model and a decision-making laboratory method are fused, the accuracy and reasonability of screening of the electric power spot market KPI supervision indexes are improved, and technical support and theoretical basis are provided for electric power spot market KPI supervision management decisions.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power spot market management decision-making, and in particular relates to a power spot market dynamic supervision risk assessment method based on ISM-DEMATEL. Background Art

[0002] The establishment of a unified electricity spot market, as an important foundation for reform, has greatly promoted the integration of new energy, optimized the allocation of power resources, and enhanced the stability of the power system. At present, most provincial electricity spot markets are still in the trial operation stage and face multi-dimensional regulatory obstacles, such as 1. the expansion of market entities, 2. imperfect operation and trading rules, and 3. the dual structure of planned market and new energy grid connection and consumption. The efficient and stable operation of the provincial electricity spot market depends on the effective supervision and assessment of market construction and performance. However, with the rapid expansion of the electricity spot market, the existing regulatory standards are insufficient to regulate the market with a high proportion of renewable energy. Therefore, practical and robust standard analysis tools are urgently needed to quantify standards, determine key regulatory standards, and further ensure the safe and healthy operation of the provincial electricity spot market.

[0003] At present, the provincial power spot market is in the initial development stage. Due to the uncertainty of the market and policy environment, the complexity of the spot market operation and management, and the market price fluctuations, it is challenging to systematically and comprehensively evaluate the provincial power spot KPI regulatory indicators. For the provincial power spot market, most studies use the AHP method to screen the power spot market KPI regulatory indicators, which is difficult to take into account the impact of structural importance and importance on regulatory indicators, and the accuracy of evaluating the power spot market KPI regulatory indicators is greatly affected. In order to improve the accuracy and rationality of the screening of the power spot market KPI regulatory indicators, the present invention proposes a provincial power spot market KPI regulatory indicator screening method based on ISM-DEMATEL. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a dynamic supervision risk assessment method for the electricity spot market based on ISM-DEMATEL.

[0005] The present invention solves the technical problem by adopting the following technical solution: A method for dynamic supervision risk assessment of power spot market based on ISM-DEMATEL includes the following steps: Step 1: Obtain multiple initial KPI regulatory indicators for the electricity spot market; Step 2: Construct an adjacency matrix based on the mutual influence between indicators ; According to the adjacency matrix , and get the overall influence matrix , the calculation formula is: (1) In the formula, represents the identity matrix, is the number of initial KPI regulatory indicators in the electricity spot market; The overall impact matrix Multiply by itself to get the reachable matrix , the calculation formula is: (2) From the reachability matrix Get the relationship directed graph. If the initial power spot market KPI regulatory index in the relationship directed graph and Pointing to each other, indicating indicators and If they affect each other, the two indicators are merged into the same category; all initial power spot market KPI regulatory indicators are traversed and obtained after screening KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market; for the reachable matrix Carry out hierarchical division and determine the level of KPI regulatory indicators for each power spot market; Step 3: Using the DEMATEL method, experts scored based on the "four-degree" integer level to determine the importance weight of each power spot market KPI regulatory indicator; Step 4: Based on the ranking of importance weights, further screen the KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market based on their importance.

[0006] Furthermore, in the third step, it is assumed that there are multiple experts, each of whom uses a "four-degree" integer level pair The KPI regulatory indicators of the power spot market are evaluated to obtain a direct impact matrix; the direct impact matrices of all experts are aggregated to obtain the expert group direct impact matrix; the expert group direct impact matrix is ​​normalized to obtain the normalized direct impact matrix , the calculation formula is: (3) In the formula, It is the expert group’s direct impact matrix; According to the normalized direct impact matrix , calculate the comprehensive impact matrix ; (4) According to the comprehensive impact matrix , calculate the influence and influence of each standard power spot market KPI regulatory indicator, calculate the centrality based on the influence and influence; normalize the centrality to obtain the importance weight of the power spot market KPI regulatory indicator.

[0007] (7) (8) In the formula, For the impact, To be affected. is the centrality.

[0008] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: The ISM method is used to screen the initial KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market, and the hierarchy of the KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market is determined, taking into account the structural importance. The DEMATEL method is used to determine the importance weights of the KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market, taking into account the degree of importance. Considering the two dimensions of structural importance and degree of importance, the advantages of the Explanatory Structural Model (ISM) and the Decision Laboratory Method (DEMATEL) are integrated to improve the accuracy and rationality of the screening of KPI regulatory indicators in the electricity spot market, and provide technical support and theoretical basis for the KPI regulatory management decision-making in the electricity spot market. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0009] Figure 1 It is the overall flow chart of the method of the present invention; Figure 2 It is a multi-layer hierarchical structure diagram of ISM; Figure 3 It is the KPI regulatory indicator weight of the electricity spot market based on the DEMATEL method. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0010] Specific embodiments are given below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The specific embodiments are only used to introduce the technical solutions of the present invention in detail and are not intended to limit the protection scope of the present application.

[0011] The present invention provides a method for dynamic supervision risk assessment of the power spot market based on ISM-DEMATEL (hereinafter referred to as the method, see Figures 1 to 3 ), including the following steps: Step 1: Obtain information through literature search, government work reports, industry standards, etc. Initial electricity spot market KPI regulatory indicators; Step 2: Use the ISM method to screen the initial power spot market KPI regulatory indicators and obtain The KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market should be determined, and the level of the KPI regulatory indicators of each electricity spot market should be determined; The initial KPI regulatory indicator set for the electricity spot market is: , represents the initial electricity spot market KPI regulatory indicator, Indicates the number of initial KPI regulatory indicators in the electricity spot market; According to the mutual influence relationship between indicators, the adjacency matrix is ​​constructed ; To represent the initial electricity spot market KPI regulatory indicators and The mutual influence between express right No impact, express right influential; According to the adjacency matrix , and get the overall influence matrix , the calculation formula is: (1) In the formula, represents the identity matrix; The overall impact matrix Multiply by itself to get the reachable matrix , the calculation formula is: (2) From the reachability matrix Get the relationship directed graph, which is a graphical display of the reachable matrix. According to the relationship directed graph, the indicators are screened. If the initial power spot market KPI supervision indicator and Pointing to each other, indicating indicators and If the two indicators affect each other, they are combined into the same category; repeat the above process, traverse all the initial power spot market KPI regulatory indicators, and obtain Power spot market KPI regulatory indicators; Reachability Matrix Divide into levels according to Determine the KPI regulatory indicators for each level of the electricity spot market, and then determine the level of each level of the KPI regulatory indicators for the electricity spot market; , They are the KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market The reachable set and the predecessor set of .

[0012] Step 3: Starting from the degree of importance, the DEMATEL method is used to conduct expert scoring based on the "four-degree" integers to determine the importance weights of each power spot market KPI regulatory indicator; Assume that there are experts, each expert uses a "fourth degree" integer pair The KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market are evaluated to obtain a direct impact matrix; The direct influence matrix of an expert is ; Will The language direct influence matrix of each expert is aggregated to obtain the expert group direct influence matrix , whose expression is: ; The direct impact matrix of the expert group is normalized to obtain the normalized direct impact matrix , the calculation formula is: (3) In the normalized direct impact matrix Based on the calculation of the comprehensive impact matrix , the calculation formula is: (4) According to the comprehensive impact matrix , calculate the influence and influence of each KPI regulatory indicator in the power spot market, and calculate the centrality based on the influence and influence; normalize the centrality to obtain the importance weight of the KPI regulatory indicator in the power spot market; Step 4: Based on the ranking of importance weights, further screen the KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market based on their importance.

[0013] The greater the importance weight of the KPI regulatory indicator in the electricity spot market, the greater the proportion of the indicator in affecting the KPI regulation in the electricity spot market. Therefore, the KPI regulatory barriers in the electricity spot market can be screened secondary according to the importance weights of each KPI regulatory indicator in the electricity spot market.

[0014] Example This embodiment is based on the provincial power spot market KPI supervision indicator screening method of ISM-DEMATEL, including the following steps: Step 1: Through literature retrieval, industry standards, and government work reports, a total of 50 initial electricity spot market KPI regulatory indicators were obtained from five dimensions: market structure supervision, market subject behavior supervision, market operation mechanism and performance supervision, transparency and information disclosure supervision, and system security and dispatch supervision. See Table 1.

[0015]

[0016] Step 2: Based on the structural importance, all initial KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market are screened using the ISM method, and 38 KPI regulatory indicators and 5 levels of KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market are determined. The levels of the KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market are shown in Figure 2 ; Step 3: Based on the importance, the DEMATEL method is used to conduct expert scoring based on the "four-degree" integers to determine the importance weights of each KPI regulatory indicator in the power spot market, and a secondary screening of the KPI regulatory indicators in the power spot market is conducted. Figure 3 .

[0017] In order to verify the superiority of the method of the present invention, the method of the present invention is compared with the screening results of KPI regulatory indicators of the power spot market based on the single dimension of ISM. It can be seen that the highest-level key indicator determined by ISM is O8 (market structure), and the indicators in the same hierarchical structure are redundant and the order cannot be clearly determined. However, unlike the analysis results of ISM, the analysis results of the method of the present invention show that O8 (market structure) is only of great influence. Considering the influence of the "four degrees", O23 (spot price fluctuation level) is the first key indicator. Since the spot price fluctuation level will have a certain impact on the safety of the operation of the power spot market, and then affect its market structure, compared with O8 (market structure), O23 (spot price fluctuation level) can better reflect the key regulatory indicators. It can be seen that the analysis results of the method of the present invention are more reasonable and in line with the actual situation, and can be used to guide the screening of KPI regulatory indicators of power spot markets in various places, thereby improving the management decision-making of KPI supervision of provincial power spot markets.

[0018] Any matters not described in the present invention are applicable to the prior art.

Claims

1. A dynamic supervision risk assessment method for power spot market based on ISM-DEMATEL, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Obtain multiple initial KPI regulatory indicators for the electricity spot market; Step 2: Construct an adjacency matrix based on the mutual influence between indicators ; According to the adjacency matrix , and get the overall influence matrix , the calculation formula is: （1） In the formula, represents the identity matrix, is the number of initial KPI regulatory indicators in the electricity spot market; The overall impact matrix Multiply by itself to get the reachable matrix , the calculation formula is: （2） From the reachability matrix Get the relationship directed graph. If the initial power spot market KPI regulatory index in the relationship directed graph and Pointing to each other, indicating indicators and If they affect each other, the two indicators are merged into the same category; all initial power spot market KPI regulatory indicators are traversed and obtained after screening KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market; for the reachable matrix Carry out hierarchical division and determine the level of KPI regulatory indicators for each power spot market; Step 3: Using the DEMATEL method, experts score based on the "four-degree" integer level to determine the importance weight of each power spot market KPI regulatory indicator; Step 4: Based on the ranking of importance weights, further screen the KPI regulatory indicators of the electricity spot market based on their importance.

2. The method for dynamic supervision risk assessment of the electricity spot market based on ISM-DEMATEL according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In the third step, assume that there are multiple experts, each of whom uses a "four-degree" integer rating The KPI regulatory indicators of the power spot market are evaluated to obtain a direct impact matrix; the direct impact matrices of all experts are aggregated to obtain the expert group direct impact matrix; the expert group direct impact matrix is ​​normalized to obtain the normalized direct impact matrix , the calculation formula is: （3） In the formula, It is the expert group’s direct impact matrix; According to the normalized direct impact matrix , calculate the comprehensive impact matrix ; （4） According to the comprehensive impact matrix , calculate the influence and influence of each standard power spot market KPI regulatory indicator, calculate the centrality based on the influence and influence; normalize the centrality to obtain the importance weight of the power spot market KPI regulatory indicator; （7） （8） In the formula, For the impact, To be affected. is the centrality.

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