Power cable life cycle prediction management method, system, device and medium

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of life cycle prediction management methods, systems, equipment and medium of power optical cable, method includes obtaining the actual operating state information of power optical cable;Collect power optical cable operation history data, find out the factor corresponding to power optical cable failure based on power optical cable operation history data through causal analysis, and the weight corresponding to each factor according to relative importance size;With the factor corresponding to power optical cable failure and the weight of each factor as reference, according to the actual operating state information of power optical cable, the residual life of predicted power optical cable is calculated;The life cycle cost of power optical cable is calculated, with the life cycle cost of power optical cable minimum, combined with the residual life of power optical cable, formulates the operation maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy of power optical cable.The application can comprehensively and accurately evaluate and predict the life of power optical cable OPGW, objectively guide the planning, maintenance and reconstruction decision of transmission line, reduce life cycle cost.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of power optical cable technology, specifically relating to a method, system, equipment, and medium for predicting and managing the life cycle of power optical cables. Background Technology

[0002] OPGW (Optical Fiber Composite Overhead Ground Wire) is a special type of cable used in power systems. OPGW integrates optical fiber units within stranded wires and is installed on the top rack of high-voltage overhead transmission lines. It combines the functions of a traditional overhead ground wire with the capabilities of optical fiber communication. The basic structure of OPGW consists of a cable core containing optical fibers and stranded metal wires. The optical fiber provides the transmission channel, while the metal wires are typically made of materials such as aluminum-clad steel wire or aluminum alloy wire. The steel component primarily provides mechanical strength, while the aluminum component mainly carries short-circuit current.

[0003] Optical fiber cables are one of the main components of overhead transmission lines, accounting for a significant proportion of investment in their construction. Currently, the theoretical design life of OPGW (Optical Wire Roofing Cable) is 30 years. The lifespan of the OPGW must match that of the conductors and ground wires on the same tower; currently, no OPGW possesses such a long lifespan. From an economic perspective, if the lifespan of the OPGW does not match that of other materials and components in the transmission line, it will result in enormous waste. For OPGW optical cables, there are currently no mature lifespan assessment and prediction methods, either domestically or internationally.

[0004] To date, the early-laid optical cables in my country have been in operation for over 20 years. In optical cable network construction, the cost of optical cable lines accounts for approximately 70% of the total network construction cost. Blindly replacing optical cable lines based solely on their design lifespan would result in enormous resource waste and lacks scientific rigor and specificity. Therefore, it is essential to conduct lifespan assessments of optical cable performance. This not only effectively addresses the issues of incomplete consideration of influencing factors and weak guidance in comprehensive performance evaluations, but also facilitates optimized planning and cost reduction in network construction. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of this invention is to address the problems in the prior art by providing a method, system, device, and medium for predicting and managing the life cycle of power optical cables. This method can comprehensively and accurately assess and predict the life cycle of power optical cables (OPGW), objectively guide the planning, maintenance, and renovation decisions of transmission lines, and reduce life cycle costs.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides the following technical solution:

[0007] Firstly, a lifecycle prediction and management method for power optical cables is provided, including:

[0008] Obtain actual operating status information of power optical cables;

[0009] Collect historical data on the operation of power optical cables, and based on this data, use causal analysis to identify the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults, as well as the weights of each factor according to their relative importance.

[0010] Based on the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults and the weights of each factor, and according to the actual operating status information of the power optical cable, the remaining lifespan of the power optical cable is calculated and predicted.

[0011] Calculate the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable, minimize the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and formulate operation and maintenance strategies or decommissioning strategies for the power optical cable based on the remaining life of the power optical cable.

[0012] As a preferred solution, the actual operating status information of the power optical cable is obtained through an automatic optical cable monitoring system. The automatic optical cable monitoring system monitors the power optical cable in real time, analyzes alarm information based on monitoring data, initiates corresponding tests, locates and dispatches repairs for faults, and reduces fault duration.

[0013] As a preferred embodiment, when identifying the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults through causal analysis based on historical operating data of the power optical cable, the failure modes leading to the power optical cable faults and the factors corresponding to each failure mode include:

[0014] Fatigue fracture: During operation, under wind vibration, the stress generated by the tensile force on the power optical cable is concentrated at the tip of the crack, causing the crack to gradually expand radially.

[0015] Fiber optic cable breakage due to overload: Excessive tension caused by load results in excessive sag of the optical cable or insufficient fiber length, leading to breakage.

[0016] Aging and damage to the coating material: The temperature rise inside the optical unit exceeds the temperature that the optical fiber coating material can withstand;

[0017] Material and structural deformation or damage: affected by short circuit and lightning current;

[0018] Chemical corrosion: Corrosion of power optical cables caused by chemical environments.

[0019] As a preferred approach, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the weights of each factor according to their relative importance.

[0020] The analytic hierarchy process includes:

[0021] The analysis object and the set of evaluation factors are determined, wherein the analysis object is the power optical cable fault and the evaluation factors are the factors that cause the power optical cable fault;

[0022] A fault evaluation matrix for power optical cables is constructed by analyzing the set of objects and evaluation factors.

[0023] The weights of each factor corresponding to a power optical cable fault are obtained by using the power optical cable fault evaluation matrix.

[0024] The calculated weights of each factor are output after a consistency check.

[0025] As a preferred embodiment, in the step of formulating the operation and maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy for the power optical cable, the operation and maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy for the power optical cable is formulated based on the defect coefficient. The defect coefficient is determined by the defect level and the number of defects. The number of defects corresponding to different defect coefficients is as follows:

[0026] The defect coefficient is 1.0, which corresponds to a minimum and a maximum number of defects of 0.

[0027] The defect coefficient is 1.05, corresponding to a minimum defect count of 0 and a maximum defect count of 1.

[0028] A defect coefficient of 1.1 corresponds to a minimum defect count of 1 and a maximum defect count of 2; or, a minimum defect count of 2 and a maximum defect count of 5.

[0029] The defect coefficient is 1.2, corresponding to a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 100 defect counts.

[0030] The state coefficient and defect coefficient of power optical cables correspond, and the operation and maintenance strategies for different state coefficients are formulated according to the following relationship:

[0031] The condition coefficient is 1.05, corresponding to continuous maintenance;

[0032] A state coefficient of 1.1 corresponds to strand repair; or, it corresponds to increased fiber attenuation.

[0033] The state coefficient is 1.2, which corresponds to excessive fiber attenuation.

[0034] As a preferred approach, the calculation of the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable includes the calculation decision cost, design cost, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and scrapping cost.

[0035] As a preferred option, the decision-making costs include costs incurred during preliminary planning, access system research, engineering site selection, and feasibility studies.

[0036] Design costs include management, scheme design, special scheme research, final product publication, and technical service costs;

[0037] Construction costs include equipment procurement and installation costs, building and material costs, labor and management costs, and taxes.

[0038] Operation and maintenance costs include the cost of maintaining the substation's functionality throughout the entire process from commissioning to decommissioning;

[0039] The cost of scrapping includes the expenses for the disposal and recycling of power transmission projects.

[0040] As a preferred option, in the step of formulating the operation and maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy for power optical cables, the operation and maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy is formulated in accordance with the full life cycle goals of the power optical cable, with the aim of achieving functional matching, life cycle coordination and cost balance within the life cycle of the project.

[0041] Secondly, a lifecycle prediction and management system for power optical cables is provided, including:

[0042] The operation information acquisition module is used to acquire the actual operation status information of the power optical cable;

[0043] The fault factor analysis module is used to collect historical data of power optical cable operation, and based on the historical data of power optical cable operation, to find the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults through causal analysis, as well as the weights of each factor according to their relative importance.

[0044] The remaining life prediction module is used to calculate and predict the remaining life of the power optical cable based on the factors corresponding to the faults of the power optical cable and the weights of each factor, and according to the actual operating status information of the power optical cable.

[0045] The management strategy formulation module is used to calculate the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and formulate the operation and maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy of the power optical cable based on the minimum total life cycle cost and the remaining life of the power optical cable.

[0046] As a preferred embodiment, when the management strategy formulation module calculates the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable, the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable includes the calculation decision cost, design cost, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and scrapping cost.

[0047] As a preferred embodiment, when formulating operation and maintenance strategies or decommissioning strategies for power optical cables, the management strategy formulation module formulates operation and maintenance strategies or decommissioning strategies in accordance with the full life cycle goals of power optical cables, aiming to achieve functional matching, life cycle coordination, and cost balance within the life cycle of the project.

[0048] Thirdly, an electronic device is provided, including a processor and a memory, wherein the processor is used to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the life cycle prediction management method for the power optical cable.

[0049] Fourthly, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, the computer-readable storage medium storing at least one instruction, which, when executed by a processor, implements the life cycle prediction management method for the power optical cable.

[0050] Compared with the prior art, the first aspect of the present invention has at least the following beneficial effects:

[0051] After a period of operation, power fiber optic cables, once built and put into operation, will inevitably encounter some problems. Scientific prediction and assessment of the cable's condition and lifespan are crucial for understanding and controlling its current operational status and safety, and consequently, predicting its future operational status and load-bearing capacity. In fiber optic network construction, the cost of the fiber optic cable line accounts for approximately 70% of the total network construction cost. Blindly replacing cables directly based on their design lifespan would result in a huge waste of resources. Furthermore, to meet the service quality requirements of optical communication systems, it is necessary to continuously monitor the cable's operational status, replacing it before degradation occurs, or promptly obtaining fault information when a fault occurs, accurately determining the fault's geographical location, and eliminating the fault in a timely manner to ensure the transmission quality of the line. Previous performance assessments of power optical cables mostly relied on subjective speculation, lacking a way to objectively describe subjective judgments. This invention uses the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults and the weights of each factor as a reference, and calculates and predicts the remaining lifespan of the power optical cable based on the actual operating status information of the power optical cable. The resulting data has more objective reference value. By calculating the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable and minimizing the total life cycle cost, combined with the remaining lifespan of the power optical cable, operation and maintenance strategies or decommissioning strategies for the power optical cable are formulated. This not only considers the investment of the power grid construction project itself, but also comprehensively evaluates the operation and maintenance costs, service life, safety and reliability during the service period after the project is put into operation, so as to minimize the total life cycle cost and have good social and economic benefits.

[0052] It is understood that the beneficial effects of the second to fourth aspects mentioned above can be found in the relevant descriptions in the first aspect mentioned above, and will not be repeated here. Attached Figure Description

[0053] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of this application. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0054] Figure 1 Flowchart of the life cycle prediction and management method for power optical cables according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0055] Figure 2 This invention provides an architecture diagram for calculating the full life-cycle cost of power optical cables and formulating operation, maintenance, or decommissioning strategies.

[0056] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the basic framework of the core content of the full life cycle design of transmission lines in this invention embodiment;

[0057] Figure 4 A schematic diagram illustrating the composition of the total life-cycle cost of a power optical cable according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 5 A schematic diagram illustrating the principle of calculating and predicting the remaining lifespan of power optical cables in this embodiment of the invention. Detailed Implementation

[0059] In the following description, specific details such as particular system architectures and techniques are set forth for illustrative purposes and not for limitation, in order to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of this application. However, those skilled in the art will understand that this application may also be implemented in other embodiments without these specific details. In other instances, detailed descriptions of well-known systems, apparatuses, circuits, and methods have been omitted so as not to obscure the description of this application with unnecessary detail.

[0060] Please see Figure 1 This invention proposes a lifecycle prediction and management method for power optical cables, comprising the following steps:

[0061] S101. Obtain the actual operating status information of the power optical cable;

[0062] S102. Collect historical data of power optical cable operation, and based on the historical data of power optical cable operation, identify the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults through causal analysis, as well as the weights of each factor according to their relative importance.

[0063] S103. Using the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults and the weights of each factor as a reference, calculate and predict the remaining lifespan of the power optical cable based on the actual operating status information of the power optical cable.

[0064] S104. Calculate the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable. Based on the minimum total life cycle cost of the power optical cable and its remaining lifespan, formulate an operation and maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy for the power optical cable.

[0065] This invention establishes an optical cable lifespan calculation and evaluation model through theoretical research and experimental analysis, enabling the assessment and prediction of OPGW optical cable lifespan. This model can be used to assess and predict the lifespan of aging OPGW optical cables for power communication lines, as well as for newly constructed OPGW lines. For overhead communication lines, due to their inherent characteristics and limitations, this invention proposes applying the concept and method of lifecycle management. While ensuring the reliable function of transmission lines, this approach can save corridor resources, increase line transmission capacity, and reduce overall construction and operation costs.

[0066] The application of life assessment and prediction technologies both domestically and internationally covers the life assessment of the entire product, as well as the life assessment of materials such as metals and non-metals. For OPGW optical cables, there are currently no mature life assessment and prediction methods available domestically or internationally. Life assessment technology is also applied in the research of transmission line materials and components. For example, conductors are one of the main components of overhead transmission lines, suspended from towers by insulators. Conductors operate year-round in the atmosphere, constantly affected by meteorological conditions such as wind, ice, snow, and temperature changes, enduring varying tensile forces, and also subjected to corrosion from airborne pollutants. Similar to OPGW, conductors, in addition to having good electrical conductivity, must also possess sufficient mechanical strength and corrosion resistance.

[0067] In a conductor, the steel core bears the main tensile force, while the aluminum layer shares some of it. Since the service life of a conductor is typically related to several of its mechanical properties, the torsional toughness of the outer steel core and the conductor's breaking strength are crucial indicators affecting its lifespan. While experimental data can directly determine the conductor's current condition, it's difficult to sample conductors in operation. To accurately predict conductor lifespan, a method for online detection of galvanized layer loss is employed, along with related techniques to establish a conductor lifespan model. The main factors influencing conductor lifespan are corrosion and fatigue; therefore, corrosion lifespan and fatigue lifespan models can be established. Thus, the application of lifespan assessment techniques in conductors can be applied.

[0068] The application environment of OPGW varies in different regions, including areas with strong winds, frequent lightning strikes, heavy icing, high humidity, high pollution, and severe corrosion. Combined with factors such as unreasonable product structural design, performance defects, inappropriate construction techniques, and human sabotage, OPGW will experience various failures during operation, affecting the safe and reliable operation of the communication network. To further study the entire lifecycle of OPGW, it is necessary to collect and organize relevant information to analyze the failure mechanisms and weak points of OPGW. In step S102 of this embodiment, when identifying the factors corresponding to power optical cable failures through causal analysis based on historical operating data of power optical cables, the failure modes of power optical cable failures and the factors corresponding to each failure mode include:

[0069] Fatigue fracture: During operation, under wind vibration, the stress generated by the tensile force on the power optical cable is concentrated at the tip of the crack, causing the crack to gradually expand radially.

[0070] Fiber optic cable breakage due to overload: Excessive tension caused by load-bearing conditions such as strong winds and snow cover can lead to excessive sag of the optical cable or insufficient fiber length, resulting in breakage.

[0071] Aging and damage to the coating material: The temperature rise inside the optical unit exceeds the temperature that the optical fiber coating material can withstand;

[0072] Material and structural deformation or damage: affected by short circuit and lightning current;

[0073] Chemical corrosion: Corrosion of power optical cables caused by chemical environments such as salt spray climate and industrial pollution in coastal areas.

[0074] Among them, fatigue fracture and optical fiber overload fracture are the main failure factors, while aging and damage of the coating material, material and structural deformation or damage, and chemical corrosion are other failure factors.

[0075] Life Cycle Management (LCM) takes a long-term benefits approach, employing numerous advanced technologies and comprehensive management. It considers all relevant stages, including planning, design, construction, operation, and decommissioning. The goal of LCM is to ensure that the project's life cycle achieves overall optimization while ensuring reasonable planning, reliable operation, safe production, and high-quality engineering.

[0076] The study and definition of the entire life cycle of a construction project mainly includes four types: physical life, functional life, legal life, and economic life. From an economic perspective, the economic life should be selected as the life cycle of a construction project. Generally, when conducting life cycle cost analysis, the economic life is used as the calculation and analysis period for the construction project. Table 1 shows the types of life cycles.

[0077] Table 1

[0078]

[0079] (1) Physical lifespan

[0080] Under normal use, the entire period from the project decision-making stage to the point where physical damage renders the basic functions unusable for normal user operation is called the physical lifespan. The physical lifespan of a project is difficult to define precisely because it is affected by various factors such as natural disasters, social catastrophes, and construction quality.

[0081] (2) Functional life

[0082] Every construction project aims to meet the owner's functional needs for a specific function. Functional life is the period from the time a construction project is decided upon, implemented, and put into use until its function no longer meets the owner's needs. The loss of functionality in a construction project is mainly caused by physical and technological depletion, changes in the owner's needs, and other factors. The functional life of a construction project depends on both internal and external factors, and these internal and external factors are random; therefore, the functional life of a construction project is uncertain.

[0083] (3) Legal life

[0084] Legal life refers to the legally defined reasonable use of a construction project. For research purposes, the legal life of a construction project is set to coincide with the term of the land use right.

[0085] (4) Economic life

[0086] Economic life refers to the time from the start of a construction project's lifespan until its continued use becomes economically unfeasible and it needs to be replaced. It is determined by increasing operating and maintenance costs and decreasing use value. The longer the lifespan of a construction project, the lower the annual asset consumption cost. However, as the lifespan of a construction project increases, on the one hand, more operating and maintenance costs are needed to maintain its original functions; on the other hand, the project's energy consumption also increases. Therefore, the decrease in annual asset consumption cost is offset by the increase in annual operating costs. In this entire process, there exists a year in which the average annual cost of use of the construction project is lowest; this is called the economic life of the construction project. The economic life of a construction project is the life cycle of the construction project determined from an economic (or cost) perspective.

[0087] Please see Figure 2The life cycle of a transmission line refers to the entire time span from planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance, to decommissioning. The fundamental concept of transmission line life cycle design is to optimize or achieve the best possible overall life-cycle performance (safety, applicability, durability, economy, ecology, etc.). Low cost is one of many requirements, but not the only one. For transmission lines, life-cycle economic analysis cannot be separated from the safety and service life of the line system and its components, especially the reduced safety performance and shortened service life of components caused by line corrosion. The safety of the transmission line directly affects the overall life-cycle economic indicators of the line system. Life-cycle economic analysis requires a known service life of the line system (the period of economic analysis) and must be based on the premise of line safety and reliability. Furthermore, since transmission lines consist of major components such as conductors, ground wires, insulators, hardware, towers, and foundations, the expected service lives of these major components vary considerably, necessitating consideration of the lifespan matching of each component. Therefore, the full life-cycle design method for transmission lines is a complex design method involving multiple objectives, multiple indicators, and multiple levels, and life-cycle design theory is also a comprehensive and complex theoretical system. The basic framework of the core content of the whole life cycle design of transmission lines is as follows: Figure 3 As shown.

[0088] Life cycle management has characteristics that distinguish it from other management concepts:

[0089] (1) Life cycle management is a systematic project: it requires systematic and scientific management to achieve the goals of each stage and ensure the realization of the ultimate goal (maximizing the economic, social and environmental benefits of investment).

[0090] (2) Life cycle management runs through the entire process of power projects and has different characteristics and objectives at different stages. The management of each stage is interconnected.

[0091] (3) Continuity of life cycle management: The life cycle management of power construction projects is both phased and holistic, requiring good continuity of work at each stage.

[0092] (4) There are many participants in life cycle management, and they are interconnected and mutually restrictive.

[0093] (5) The complexity of life cycle management: It is determined by the systematic, phased and multi-subject nature of the whole life cycle management of power construction projects.

[0094] Please see Figure 4 In step S104 of this embodiment of the invention, when calculating the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable, the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable includes the calculation decision cost, design cost, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and scrapping cost.

[0095] Life Cycle Cost (LCC) management is a management approach that takes a long-term perspective, while ensuring overall planning, production safety, and operational reliability, with the goal of optimizing the overall life cycle of a project.

[0096] Lifecycle management encompasses the integrated management of assets, time, costs, quality, human resources, communication, risk, and procurement. Through organizational integration, it integrates knowledge and information, and forward-integrates information from the future operational phase. The management cycle shifts from a project-phase-centric approach to a full lifecycle model focused on the operational phase, allowing for a more comprehensive consideration of the opportunities and challenges faced by the project, thus enhancing project value. Lifecycle management is characterized by macro-level forecasting and comprehensive control. It considers the entire lifecycle from planning and design to decommissioning, avoiding short-term cost behaviors and ensuring the application of the LCC (Lifecycle Cost Control) method through institutional mechanisms. It breaks down some boundaries, comprehensively considering costs at different stages such as planning, infrastructure, and operation, seeking the optimal solution from the perspective of overall enterprise benefits. It considers all incurred costs, seeking a balance between appropriate availability and total costs to find the solution with the minimum LCC.

[0097] For a project, the life cycle refers to the entire process from the initial conception of the project to its eventual scrapping (or completion) by the end of the project. Throughout its life cycle, a project goes through five stages: preliminary planning, design and scheduling, construction and operation, and eventual disposal.

[0098] (1) Costs of the decision-making stage

[0099] The decision-making stage of power transmission projects involves conducting feasibility studies, comparing different implementation plans technically and economically, and finally making a decision. The economic benefits of a project depend on the correctness of the project decision. Substation project decision-making requires several aspects: preliminary planning, grid connection studies, site selection, and feasibility studies. The costs incurred during these stages are included in the decision-making cost. The decision-making stage is the decisive stage in the total life-cycle cost of a substation project. While the costs incurred at this stage represent a very small percentage of the total life-cycle cost, they can potentially result in the largest savings.

[0100] (2) Costs in the design phase

[0101] After the feasibility study report is approved, the next step is to conduct preliminary design, followed by construction drawing design based on the approved preliminary design, and finally, as-built drawing design after project completion. Costs in the design phase include management, scheme design, specialized scheme research, final product publication, and technical services (including technical consulting and project management services). Although the design phase itself accounts for a relatively small portion of the cost, its impact extends throughout the entire life cycle. The quality of the design scheme directly affects the project's quality, construction costs, and economic benefits.

[0102] (3) Costs during the construction stage

[0103] The construction stage is the concrete manifestation and implementation of the engineering design plan. The costs during the construction stage include equipment procurement and installation costs, construction engineering and various material costs, labor and management costs, as well as various taxes and fees. The construction stage requires a huge investment of funds and various resources, with a long construction period and a wide range of coverage. These factors will all have an impact on the total life-cycle cost of the substation project. Although the scope for saving investment in this stage is relatively small, the construction quality will have a great impact on the subsequent operation and maintenance costs and scrapping costs of the project.

[0104] (4) Costs during the operation and maintenance stage

[0105] The costs during the operation and maintenance stage are the costs for maintaining the functions of the substation throughout the entire stage from its commissioning to its scrapping, including daily operation costs and fault repair costs. Since more than 95% of the total life cycle of the substation project is in the operation and maintenance stage, with a long stage duration, it accounts for a relatively large proportion in the total life-cycle cost. The main factor affecting the operation and maintenance costs is the design plan. Different design plans determine different operation and maintenance methods. Therefore, the optimization of the design plan can greatly reduce the operation and maintenance costs.

[0106] (5) Costs during the scrapping stage

[0107] The scrapping costs are the expenses for the scrapping treatment and regeneration of the transmission project. The costs in this stage mainly depend on the plan in the design stage and the specific measures taken for scrapping. If the equipment materials or building materials used in the design plan are renewable materials, such as steel, etc., they have a relatively high residual value, which can reduce the scrapping costs; the more complex the design plan, the higher the scrapping disposal costs, which can increase the scrapping costs. The scrapping costs also have a relatively direct relationship with the construction costs during the construction period. The higher the construction costs, the higher the scrapping costs往往.

[0108] Life-cycle management promotes the transformation of equipment management from experience-based qualitative analysis to quantitative management. In this process, key technologies such as cost analysis, condition assessment, risk assessment, and life assessment are required. To accurately apply the LCC technology, it is necessary to understand and master the cost breakdown of equipment and systems; through the condition assessment of equipment, the reliability of the equipment can be evaluated, providing a basis for evaluating the operation and maintenance costs of the equipment. Combining information such as the residual value of the equipment and its role in the system, a comprehensive evaluation can be made to obtain the impact of the equipment on the normal operation of the power system and achieve the quantitative indicators of risk assessment; life assessment is the difficulty of the LCC support technology. It is particularly important to accurately quantitatively segment the equipment life and determine the time span of the entire life cycle.

[0109] To meet the needs of sustainable development of OPGW optical cables throughout their entire lifecycle, the goal of the OPGW optical cable lifecycle is to achieve functional matching, lifecycle coordination, and cost balance throughout the project's lifecycle. This mainly includes the following aspects:

[0110] (1) Safety and reliability

[0111] The OPGW optical cable should be used to comprehensively consider its role and impact on the normal operation of the power grid; avoid personal injury accidents, power grid accidents, and equipment accidents; focus on functional matching, and improve overall safety and reliability.

[0112] For OPGW optical cables, the route plan should be optimized to avoid facilities that endanger the safe and reliable operation of the cables; the impact of special terrain and micro-meteorological conditions should be fully considered; areas prone to heavy icing and cable galloping should be avoided as much as possible; the strength coordination between OPGW optical cables and structural systems such as conductors, hardware, towers and foundations should be optimized; and appropriate reinforcement measures should be adopted for important lines and special sections of the line.

[0113] (2) Maintainability

[0114] The route selection should facilitate operation and maintenance; live-line working mode should be fully considered to facilitate inspection and maintenance.

[0115] (3) Scalability

[0116] Incorporate power grid planning into local government master plans, coordinate the planning of power transmission corridors, and improve their utilization rate;

[0117] (4) Energy-saving and environmentally friendly

[0118] Take measures to conserve resources, protect the environment, and coordinate with the environment; conserve land, energy, water, and materials; minimize or avoid occupying arable land and land with high economic benefits; favor economical and environmentally friendly construction techniques and methods; adopt construction machinery with low noise levels; rationally arrange construction time to reduce the environmental impact of construction activities; and strengthen environmental management and monitoring during the construction period.

[0119] (5) Feasibility

[0120] Choose equipment types and technical parameters reasonably to facilitate procurement; implement scientific and reasonable construction organization measures, fully considering the requirements of construction technology, equipment materials, construction tools, and construction site; select construction materials according to local conditions, optimize the transportation plan for large items, refine design drawings, and facilitate construction; and make reasonable use of new technologies, new processes, new materials, and new equipment.

[0121] (6) Recyclability

[0122] With resource efficiency and recycling as the core, the project fully considers land reuse and equipment and material recycling. Equipment is easily recycled and disposed of at the end of its lifespan; the land can be reused at the end of the project's lifespan.

[0123] (7) The concept of process standardization

[0124] The life-cycle process standardization design concept is: standardize and simplify the design to create conditions for standardized construction processes. Gradually improve the standard system so that construction units can prepare human resources, construction equipment, construction plans, and common materials in advance, reducing investment in specialized construction equipment and materials, shortening the construction cycle, reducing training costs for specialized process personnel, and ensuring construction quality.

[0125] (8) Optimal life cycle cost

[0126] A comprehensive approach is taken to balance functionality and cost throughout the entire lifecycle. This involves achieving a harmonious balance between safety, reliability, maintainability, scalability, recyclability, and overall lifecycle cost. Short-sighted actions are avoided; multiple solutions are compared to select the optimal solution that is technically reliable, economically sound, and environmentally friendly, thereby maximizing both economic and social benefits.

[0127] The life cycle of OPGW optical cables is divided into five stages: planning, design, procurement and construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning. Each stage includes different features, comprehensively covering the entire life cycle management process.

[0128] For OPGW optical cables, the initial investment accounts for a large proportion of the project construction investment. Therefore, it is crucial to rationally design the type of OPGW optical cable to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the line, reasonably control investment, and reduce operation, maintenance and failure loss costs.

[0129] The foundation of life-cycle cost analysis for power transmission projects lies in the various data collected at each stage of the project. The life cycle of a power transmission project is divided into five stages: planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance (O&M), and decommissioning. Data collection at each stage has its own characteristics. Generally, life-cycle cost analysis for power transmission projects is primarily conducted during the design phase, requiring the collection of data from all five stages. Data collection during the O&M phase is the most challenging to obtain accurately, making online monitoring and lifespan assessment crucial. Daily operational data of transmission lines measured by online monitoring devices and the current status of the lines assessed using lifespan assessment technology can serve as the basis for life-cycle management. After commissioning, OPGW optical cables will inevitably experience some problems. To understand the current operational status and safety of OPGW optical cables and predict their future operational status and load-bearing capacity, a scientific assessment of the OPGW optical cable's condition and lifespan is essential. Currently, the earliest optical cables laid in my country have been in operation for over 20 years, while the design life of optical cables is generally 30 years. In the construction of optical fiber networks, the cost of optical fiber lines accounts for approximately 70% of the total network construction cost. Blindly replacing optical fiber lines based solely on their design lifespan would result in a huge waste of resources and lacks scientific rigor and specificity. Therefore, it is essential to conduct lifespan assessments of optical fiber performance. This not only effectively addresses the problems of incomplete consideration of influencing factors and weak guidance in comprehensive performance evaluations, but also facilitates network construction planning optimization and minimizes costs.

[0130] In one possible implementation, step S101 of this embodiment of the invention obtains the actual operating status information of the power optical cable through an automatic optical cable monitoring system. The automatic optical cable monitoring system monitors the power optical cable in real time, analyzes alarm information based on monitoring data, initiates corresponding tests, locates and dispatches repairs for faults, and reduces the duration of faults.

[0131] One of the key aspects of OPGW lifecycle cost management is the cost of optical cable operation and maintenance. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the reliability of the optical cable and assess its condition to provide a basis for asset lifecycle management.

[0132] Optical cable condition assessment is based on an optical cable monitoring system. First, OPGW condition monitoring is conducted through various online and offline tests to collect and acquire various information about the optical cable, such as technical parameters and physical characteristics. Second, based on the obtained characteristics, various calculation methods and mathematical tools are used to determine the current state of the optical cable. Finally, the condition is compared and analyzed with standard technical data in various regulations, considering the actual operating conditions of the OPGW, to determine the actual state of the OPGW optical cable. The key to OPGW optical cable condition evaluation is to analyze the various external forces that the OPGW optical cable may encounter, based on its own operating condition, and to analyze the OPGW optical cable's service life and reliability.

[0133] With the continuous maturation of other related technologies, online monitoring technology for optical cables has developed rapidly since the late 1980s. In China, after several years of technological accumulation, research and development, and line testing, the monitoring of optical cable lines has gradually transitioned from manual inspection to centralized automatic monitoring, achieving significant progress. As the scale of the domestic optical cable network continues to expand, domestic online monitoring technology for optical cables is also constantly developing. With the development of optical fiber communication, the maintenance and management of optical cables has become increasingly prominent. The increase in the number of optical cables and the aging of early-laid cables have led to a continuous increase in the number of optical cable line faults. OPGW optical cables are susceptible to lightning strikes, and ADSS optical cables are severely affected by electrolytic corrosion, both of which can cause fiber breakage. As the status of optical fiber communication networks becomes increasingly important, the number and importance of the services they carry continue to rise, making the impact of fiber optic interruptions on services particularly prominent.

[0134] The main technical features of the automatic optical cable monitoring system are: rapid fault location; alarm workflow management; and multiple test types, including spot testing and periodic testing. After a long period of development, application, and continuous improvement, the automatic optical cable monitoring system has become an important fault location tool in trunk optical cable maintenance.

[0135] The safety, reliability, and maintainability of OPGW optical cables are crucial foundations for the normal operation of communication systems. In fiber optic communication systems, fiber quality degradation and cable breaks are the most serious and common faults. Therefore, these faults become the main issues affecting the service quality and even the normal operation of optical communication systems. To resolve this issue, it is necessary to monitor the operating status of the optical cables at all times, replace them promptly before degradation occurs, or obtain fault information in a timely manner when a fault occurs, accurately determine the geographical location of the fault, and eliminate the fault promptly to ensure the transmission quality of the line.

[0136] Fiber optic cable monitoring systems enable timely and effective monitoring and management of fiber optic cable lines, accurately capturing fault signs and preventing degradation of line transmission indicators. This has become a primary concern, making fiber optic cable line monitoring and management an indispensable management tool. Automatic fiber optic cable monitoring systems provide maintenance departments with an advanced maintenance method, enabling them to proactively understand fiber optic transmission characteristics rather than passively receiving information from maintenance departments. This provides a reliable guarantee for the high-quality, efficient, safe, and stable operation of fiber optic transmission networks. Automatic fiber optic cable monitoring systems should employ advanced technologies such as alarms, testing, databases, network control, business process control, and geographic information systems. They should comprehensively integrate fiber optic testing, network management alarms, and maintenance mechanisms. Through real-time automatic monitoring of fiber optic cables, automatic analysis of alarm information, automatic initiation of corresponding tests, automatic fault location, and automatic repair dispatch, the system can reduce fault duration and minimize user losses.

[0137] Life assessment technology is an assessment and estimation method that uses data collected in the laboratory or field, along with new information, to comprehensively consider various factors and apply appropriate methods and techniques to conduct sustainable analysis and estimation of the research object.

[0138] The lifespan of optical fiber cables is related to their materials and structure, the natural environment, construction methods, and lightning strikes. Currently, optical fiber cables that have been in operation for over 15 years exhibit significant differences in lifespan. Some have been decommissioned after strand breakage due to lightning strikes, some are in good condition and can continue operating, while others in poor condition require lifespan assessment. A one-size-fits-all approach to the maintenance or decommissioning of OPGW cables would result in substantial economic losses. Therefore, lifespan assessment of OPGW optical cables helps improve the refined management of optical cables and provides corresponding technical support for the full lifecycle management of OPGW optical cables.

[0139] Currently, there is very little research on life assessment for optical cables, largely because the lifespan of power equipment is categorized in diverse ways, such as physical lifespan, economic lifespan, and technical lifespan. Research on the life cycle of OPGW (Optical Wire Roofing Cable) is also limited. Transmission lines typically consist of towers, tower foundations, guy wires, conductors, overhead ground wires (OPGW optical cables), insulators, hardware, and grounding devices. From a full life-cycle perspective, each transmission component must undergo a reasonable lifespan assessment, which is challenging and involves a wide range of components.

[0140] In order to reasonably and scientifically predict the optimal time for the maintenance and replacement of OPGW optical cables, reduce the occurrence of accidents, and improve the production efficiency of enterprises, it is necessary to conduct life assessment of optical cables.

[0141] Lifespan prediction technology is not only a multifaceted problem involving multiple assessment components (equipment condition assessment, failure rate prediction, and total life cycle cost calculation), but also a fuzzy problem where the prediction results are difficult to verify. The significance of lifespan assessment models lies in guiding the planning, maintenance, and retrofitting decisions of transmission lines. Assessing the lifespan of OPGW optical cables and predicting their remaining lifespan and total operational lifespan provides technical support for formulating OPGW optical cable decommissioning strategies and calculating total life cycle costs.

[0142] Currently, predicting the lifespan of equipment or systems remains a challenge across various industries. Extensive research has been conducted using probabilistic statistical methods and physical evolution mechanisms, resulting in numerous lifespan models. However, very few are practically applicable, including in the power industry. Equipment has various lifespan concepts, including physical lifespan, technical lifespan, economic lifespan, and depreciation lifespan. Generally, the economic lifespan of equipment is defined as the number of years from when it is put into use in its newest condition until its average annual total cost is minimized. At this point, even if the equipment is still technically operational, it is no longer economically viable. Therefore, studying the remaining lifespan of equipment should begin with considering its economic lifespan. Proper maintenance can extend the economic lifespan of equipment, and conversely, a poorly maintained economic lifespan can influence maintenance decisions.

[0143] The methods for assessing the lifespan of OPGW optical cables are primarily based on the aforementioned methods of optical cable monitoring and lifespan testing. Based on optical cable monitoring technology, historical data from cable operation can be collected. By conducting causal analysis on identified problems, the main contradictions can be identified, and the current operational status of the optical cable can be assessed. Timely warnings can be issued for the optical cable line, allowing for the prediction of the OPGW optical cable's remaining lifespan using lifespan prediction technology. Based on the predicted OPGW optical cable lifespan, the design lifespan of management can be guided from another perspective. By conducting lifespan assessment and prediction of OPGW optical cables, combined with life-cycle cost management, the economic lifespan of OPGW optical cables can be effectively determined, minimizing the total life-cycle cost and achieving good social and economic benefits. Life-cycle management emphasizes the optimization of the management objective system, the construction of the organizational responsibility system, the application of life-cycle cost analysis methods, and the application of integrated thinking.

[0144] The OPGW life cycle mainly includes five stages: engineering design, product design, construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning.

[0145] From a technical perspective, OPGW life cycle management technology mainly includes product design technology, manufacturing technology, testing and inspection technology, construction and installation technology, operation and maintenance technology, and life assessment and prediction technology.

[0146] Based on the phases of the OPGW optical cable life cycle, the life cycle management concept can be specifically applied to the life cycle management of OPGW optical cables from the five phases involved.

[0147] During the planning and demonstration phase, it is necessary to conduct a full life-cycle cost assessment of multiple options in conjunction with the power grid plan. This assessment should not only consider the investment of the power grid construction project itself, but also comprehensively evaluate the operation and maintenance costs, service life, safety and reliability of the project after it is put into operation.

[0148] During the design and manufacturing phase, based on the material requirements of the OPGW optical cable project, unified bidding or invitation to tender is conducted in accordance with the requirements of full-process material management. During the bid evaluation process, the supplier evaluation results are taken into account, and the LCC bid evaluation method is introduced. Instead of awarding the bid based on the lowest price, the LCC method comprehensively considers both price and quality. Equipment supervision and spot check management are strengthened. The information platform is used to realize the unified procurement, storage and distribution of materials, and to provide timely and accurate materials needed for power grid construction projects with the best overall cost.

[0149] During the construction phase, based on the project investment and scale determined by the annual plan budget, the entire process of OPGW optical cable project execution is managed from the perspectives of schedule, quality, and capital and cost control. The budget execution of OPGW optical cable project is shifted from ex-post control to ex-ante control, and the expenses incurred in the project execution should be attributed to the corresponding accounts.

[0150] During the operation and maintenance phase, operation and maintenance plans are developed based on online monitoring, life assessment and prediction results. Online and historical data are analyzed, the current status and future development trends of power grid equipment are assessed, and the results are applied to guide the dynamic updating of technical transformation and asset strategies.

[0151] During the decommissioning phase, decommissioned assets are identified based on life assessment and life-cycle cost results. The assessment of reuse, scrapping, recycling, and disposal of decommissioned assets is standardized, and the assessment results of decommissioned equipment disposal are fed back to asset strategy formulation and supplier evaluation.

[0152] In one possible implementation, step S102 of this embodiment uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the weights of each factor according to their relative importance. In fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, there are two important parts: the evaluation set of object factors upon which the evaluation object is based, and the estimation of the relative importance of the evaluation factors, i.e., the weights. The weights are the metric values ​​that characterize the relative importance of the evaluation factors. In common evaluation problems, the determination of weights is often based on subjective experience, carrying a strong subjective element. In some cases, subjectively determining weights still has an objective aspect, reflecting the actual situation to a certain extent, and the evaluation results have high reference value. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a simple method for quantitative analysis of non-quantitative events in systems engineering, and also an effective method for objectively describing people's subjective judgments. It belongs to the operations research model, and its basic principle is to evaluate schemes based on hierarchical goals, sub-goals (criteria), constraints, etc., and finally synthesize the priority of each scheme, making it a relatively good method for determining relative weights. The AHP described in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0153] The analysis object and the set of evaluation factors are determined, wherein the analysis object is the power optical cable fault and the evaluation factors are the factors that cause the power optical cable fault;

[0154] A fault evaluation matrix for power optical cables is constructed by analyzing the set of objects and evaluation factors.

[0155] The weights of each factor corresponding to a power optical cable fault are obtained by using the power optical cable fault evaluation matrix.

[0156] The calculated weights of each factor are output after a consistency check.

[0157] For further details, please refer to Figure 5 This invention, in its embodiments, formulates operation and maintenance strategies or decommissioning strategies for power optical cables based on defect coefficients. The defect coefficient is determined by the defect level and the number of defects. The defect occurrence rate can indicate the equipment's condition and the likelihood of future defects or failures. Each defect is categorized in detail to its component based on its description. If no information is found in the defect description column, the defect is ignored. The defect level is obtained by multiplying the number of various types of failures that occurred over the past years by their corresponding defect levels and summing the results. The defect level can be calculated using the following formula: Defect Level = Number of General Defects × Base Number of General Defects + Number of Critical Defects × Base Number of Critical Defects + Number of Emergency Defects × Base Number of Emergency Defects.

[0158] The defect coefficient level table for OPGW optical cables according to embodiments of the present invention is shown in Table 2. The status of OPGW optical cables is shown in Table 3.

[0159] Table 2

[0160]

[0161] Table 3

[0162]

[0163] Through verification of the embodiments of the present invention, based on the average core loss data monitored online by Tianmu 5484 line A, the parameters of the performance degradation model of the process were estimated, and the lifetimes at reliability levels of 0.9, 0.8, and 0.7 were calculated respectively. Therefore, the remaining lifetimes of Tianmu 5484 line A at reliability levels of 0.9, 0.8, and 0.7 are 13 years, 15 years, and 16 years, respectively, with an average lifetime of 11 years.

[0164] Another embodiment of the present invention also proposes a life cycle prediction and management system for power optical cables, comprising:

[0165] The operation information acquisition module is used to acquire the actual operation status information of the power optical cable;

[0166] The fault factor analysis module is used to collect historical data of power optical cable operation, and based on the historical data of power optical cable operation, to find the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults through causal analysis, as well as the weights of each factor according to their relative importance.

[0167] The remaining life prediction module is used to calculate and predict the remaining life of the power optical cable based on the factors corresponding to the faults of the power optical cable and the weights of each factor, and according to the actual operating status information of the power optical cable.

[0168] The management strategy formulation module is used to calculate the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and formulate the operation and maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy of the power optical cable based on the minimum total life cycle cost and the remaining life of the power optical cable.

[0169] In one possible implementation, when the management strategy formulation module calculates the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable, the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable includes the calculation decision cost, design cost, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and scrapping cost.

[0170] In one possible implementation, when formulating operation and maintenance strategies or decommissioning strategies for power optical cables, the management strategy formulation module formulates operation and maintenance strategies or decommissioning strategies in accordance with the full life cycle goals of power optical cables, with the aim of achieving functional matching, life cycle coordination and cost balance within the life cycle of the project.

[0171] Another embodiment of the present invention also proposes an electronic device, including a processor and a memory, wherein the processor is used to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the life cycle prediction management method of the power optical cable.

[0172] Another embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing at least one instruction, which, when executed by a processor, implements the life cycle prediction management method for the power optical cable.

[0173] The computer program includes computer program code, which can be in the form of source code, object code, executable file, or some intermediate form. The computer-readable storage medium can include any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, a medium, a USB flash drive, a portable hard drive, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a computer memory, a read-only memory, a random access memory, an electrical carrier signal, a telecommunication signal, and a software distribution medium, etc. It should be noted that the content included in the computer-readable medium can be appropriately added or removed according to the requirements of legislation and patent practice in the jurisdiction. For example, in some jurisdictions, according to legislation and patent practice, the computer-readable medium does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunication signals. For ease of explanation, the above content only shows the parts related to the embodiments of the present invention; for specific technical details not disclosed, please refer to the method section of the embodiments of the present invention. This computer-readable storage medium is non-transitory and can be stored in storage devices formed by various electronic devices, enabling the execution process described in the method of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0174] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0175] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It should be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0176] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0177] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0178] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can still be made to the specific implementation of the present invention. Any modifications or equivalent substitutions that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A lifecycle prediction and management method for power optical cables, characterized in that, include: Obtain actual operating status information of power optical cables; Collect historical data on the operation of power optical cables, and based on this data, use causal analysis to identify the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults, as well as the weights of each factor according to their relative importance. Based on the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults and the weights of each factor, and according to the actual operating status information of the power optical cable, the remaining lifespan of the power optical cable is calculated and predicted. Calculate the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable, minimize the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and formulate the operation and maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy for the power optical cable based on the remaining life of the power optical cable. The actual operating status information of the power optical cable is obtained by the optical cable automatic monitoring system. The optical cable automatic monitoring system monitors the power optical cable in real time, analyzes alarm information based on monitoring data, initiates corresponding tests, locates and dispatches repairs for faults, and reduces fault duration. The weights of each factor according to their relative importance were determined using the analytic hierarchy process. The analytic hierarchy process includes: The analysis object and the set of evaluation factors are determined, wherein the analysis object is the power optical cable fault and the evaluation factors are the factors that cause the power optical cable fault; A fault evaluation matrix for power optical cables is constructed by analyzing the set of objects and evaluation factors. The weights of each factor corresponding to a power optical cable fault are obtained by using the power optical cable fault evaluation matrix. The calculated weights of each factor are output after a consistency check.

2. The lifecycle prediction and management method for power optical cables according to claim 1, characterized in that, When identifying the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults through causal analysis based on historical operating data of the power optical cable, the failure modes leading to the power optical cable faults and the factors corresponding to each failure mode include: Fatigue fracture: During operation, under wind vibration, the stress generated by the tensile force on the power optical cable is concentrated at the tip of the crack, causing the crack to gradually expand radially. Fiber optic cable breakage due to overload: Excessive tension caused by load results in excessive sag of the optical cable or insufficient fiber length, leading to breakage. Aging and damage to the coating material: The temperature rise inside the optical unit exceeds the temperature that the optical fiber coating material can withstand; Material and structural deformation or damage: affected by short circuit and lightning current; Chemical corrosion: Corrosion of power optical cables caused by chemical environments.

3. The life cycle prediction and management method for power optical cables according to claim 1, characterized in that, In the step of formulating the operation and maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy for power optical cables, the operation and maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy for power optical cables is formulated based on the defect coefficient. The defect coefficient is determined by the defect level and the number of defects. The number of defects corresponding to different defect coefficients is as follows: The defect coefficient is 1.0, which corresponds to a minimum and a maximum number of defects of 0. The defect coefficient is 1.05, corresponding to a minimum defect count of 0 and a maximum defect count of 1. A defect coefficient of 1.1 corresponds to a minimum defect count of 1 and a maximum defect count of 2; or, a minimum defect count of 2 and a maximum defect count of 5. The defect coefficient is 1.2, corresponding to a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 100 defect counts. The state coefficient and defect coefficient of power optical cables correspond, and the operation and maintenance strategies for different state coefficients are formulated according to the following relationship: The condition coefficient is 1.05, corresponding to continuous maintenance; A state coefficient of 1.1 corresponds to strand repair; or, it corresponds to increased fiber attenuation. The state coefficient is 1.2, which corresponds to excessive fiber attenuation.

4. The lifecycle prediction and management method for power optical cables according to claim 1, characterized in that, The calculation of the total life cycle cost of power optical cables includes calculation and decision-making costs, design costs, construction costs, operation and maintenance costs, and scrapping costs.

5. The life cycle prediction and management method for power optical cables according to claim 4, characterized in that, The decision-making costs include costs incurred during preliminary planning, system access research, engineering site selection, and feasibility studies. Design costs include management, scheme design, special scheme research, final product publication, and technical service costs; Construction costs include equipment procurement and installation costs, building and material costs, labor and management costs, and taxes. Operation and maintenance costs include the cost of maintaining the substation's functionality throughout the entire process from commissioning to decommissioning; The cost of scrapping includes the expenses for the disposal and recycling of power transmission projects.

6. The life cycle prediction and management method for power optical cables according to claim 1, characterized in that, In the steps of formulating operation and maintenance strategies or decommissioning strategies for power optical cables, the operation and maintenance strategies or decommissioning strategies are formulated in accordance with the full life cycle goals of power optical cables, with the aim of achieving functional matching, life cycle coordination and cost balance within the life cycle of the project.

7. A lifecycle prediction and management system for power optical cables, characterized in that, include: The operation information acquisition module is used to acquire the actual operation status information of the power optical cable; The fault factor analysis module is used to collect historical data of power optical cable operation, and based on the historical data of power optical cable operation, to find the factors corresponding to power optical cable faults through causal analysis, as well as the weights of each factor according to their relative importance. The remaining life prediction module is used to calculate and predict the remaining life of the power optical cable based on the factors corresponding to the faults of the power optical cable and the weights of each factor, and according to the actual operating status information of the power optical cable. The management strategy formulation module is used to calculate the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable, and formulate the operation and maintenance strategy or decommissioning strategy of the power optical cable based on the minimum total life cycle cost and the remaining life of the power optical cable. The actual operating status information of the power optical cable is obtained by the optical cable automatic monitoring system. The optical cable automatic monitoring system monitors the power optical cable in real time, analyzes alarm information based on monitoring data, initiates corresponding tests, locates and dispatches repairs for faults, and reduces fault duration. The weights of each factor according to their relative importance were determined using the analytic hierarchy process. The analytic hierarchy process includes: The analysis object and the set of evaluation factors are determined, wherein the analysis object is the power optical cable fault and the evaluation factors are the factors that cause the power optical cable fault; A fault evaluation matrix for power optical cables is constructed by analyzing the set of objects and evaluation factors. The weights of each factor corresponding to a power optical cable fault are obtained by using the power optical cable fault evaluation matrix. The calculated weights of each factor are output after a consistency check.

8. The life cycle prediction and management system for power optical cables according to claim 7, characterized in that, When the management strategy formulation module calculates the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable, the total life cycle cost of the power optical cable includes the calculation decision cost, design cost, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and scrapping cost.

9. The life cycle prediction and management system for power optical cables according to claim 7, characterized in that, When formulating operation and maintenance strategies or decommissioning strategies for power optical cables, the management strategy formulation module formulates operation and maintenance strategies or decommissioning strategies in accordance with the full life cycle goals of power optical cables, aiming to achieve functional matching, life cycle coordination and cost balance within the life cycle of the project.

10. An electronic device, characterized in that, It includes a processor and a memory, the processor being used to execute a computer program stored in the memory to implement the life cycle prediction and management method for power optical cables as described in any one of claims 1 to 6.

11. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium stores at least one instruction, which, when executed by a processor, implements the life cycle prediction management method for power optical cables as described in any one of claims 1 to 6.

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