LNG ship lockage disaster prediction method and related device
By constructing LNG ship passes disaster prediction methods and devices, and calculating the correlation and weight of risk indicators, the coupling risk evolution of the entire process of LNG ship passes is revealed, the problem of inaccurate risk analysis in the existing technology is solved, and more accurate risk assessment is achieved.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202510584008.5
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2025-05-07
- Publication Date
- 2025-08-26
AI Technical Summary
The prior art cannot reveal the mechanism of the coupling risk evolution of the entire process of LNG ship passing through the lock, resulting in insufficient accuracy in risk analysis.
By obtaining the measured values of risk indicators in the LNG ship pass-through disaster system, calculating the correlation and weight of the risk indicators, calculating the efficacy coefficient and coupling degree of coupled risks, and combining the disaster loss rate, LNG ship pass-through disaster prediction methods and devices are constructed.
The accurate calculation of LNG ship passes through the locks is realized, the mechanism of coupling risk evolution throughout the process is revealed, and the accuracy and reliability of risk analysis is improved.
Smart Images
Figure CN120542906A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of ship risk management and control, and in particular to a method and related device for predicting disasters of LNG ship passing through a lock. Background Art
[0002] With the continuous improvement of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) vessel construction technology, the increasing level of inland waterway infrastructure development, and the implementation of policies such as "Gasification of the Yangtze River" and "River-Sea Transport," the number of LNG vessels operating on my country's inland waterways is expected to grow significantly. Locks are a vital component of my country's inland waterway transportation system, playing a key role in facilitating the smooth flow of river networks and improving the quality of waterways. Researching the safety and feasibility of LNG vessel lock passage is a crucial measure to ensure a safe, smooth, and efficient navigation environment.
[0003] Domestic and international research on the risks of LNG ships mainly focuses on analyzing the leakage risks during navigation and loading and unloading due to the hazardous properties of LNG. There is little quantitative research on the coupling risks of LNG ships passing through locks. The risks of LNG ships passing through locks involve many fields such as ship engineering, dam engineering, safety management, fire science, etc., and are typical interdisciplinary issues. The generation of disasters is a dynamic process of multi-factor coupling in a complex environment, and is affected by the differences in the navigation environment, showing randomness and volatility in time and space.
[0004] It can be seen that the existing technology is unable to reveal the mechanism of the evolution of coupled risks during the entire process of passing the gate. Summary of the Invention
[0005] In view of this, it is necessary to provide a LNG ship passing through the lock disaster prediction method and related devices to solve the problem that the existing technology cannot reveal the mechanism of the coupled risk evolution in the whole process of passing through the lock.
[0006] In order to solve the above problems, in a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for predicting LNG ship lock-passing disasters, comprising: Obtaining a measured value of a risk indicator in the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, calculating a correlation between the measured value of the risk indicator and an optimal value of the risk indicator, and calculating a weight of the risk indicator; Calculating an efficacy coefficient of the risk indicator on the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster based on the correlation degree and the weight, and calculating the coupling degree between the risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient; The coupling disaster loss of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster is calculated based on the coupling degree and the disaster loss of each risk indicator.
[0007] In a possible embodiment of the present invention, the risk indicators in the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system include primary indicators, secondary indicators and tertiary indicators. The primary indicators include risk environment indicators, risk source indicators, risk-bearing object indicators and risk consequence indicators. Each of the primary indicators includes multiple secondary indicators, and each of the secondary indicators includes multiple tertiary indicators.
[0008] In a possible implementation manner of the present invention, calculating the correlation between the measured value of the risk indicator and the optimal value of the risk indicator includes: Obtaining the measured values of each third-level indicator, and calculating the first correlation degree between the measured values of each third-level indicator and the optimal value; Calculate the second correlation degree between the measured value and the optimal value of each secondary indicator based on the first correlation degree of each third-level indicator under each secondary indicator; The third correlation degree between the measured value and the optimal value of each first-level indicator is calculated based on the second correlation degree of each second-level indicator under each first-level indicator.
[0009] In a possible implementation of the present invention, the weight calculation formula of the risk indicator is:
[0010]
[0011]
[0012]
[0013]
[0014] in, is the importance of the i-th third-level indicator of the j-th second-level indicator under the first-level indicator, n is the number of third-level indicators under the j-th second-level indicator, is the square root of the judgment matrix, is the weight value of the i-th third-level indicator of the k-th second-level indicator, is the information entropy of the jth third-level indicator of the i-th second-level indicator, m is the number of second-level indicators, is the entropy weight of the i-th secondary indicator, is the information entropy of the i-th secondary indicator, is the weight of the jth third-level indicator of the i-th second-level indicator, is the weight of the i-th secondary indicator.
[0015] In a possible implementation of the present invention, the calculation formula for the efficacy coefficient of the risk index calculated based on the correlation degree and the weight for the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster is:
[0016]
[0017] in, is the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator, is the weight of the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator, and are the upper and lower limits of the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator.
[0018] In a possible implementation manner of the present invention, calculating the coupling degree between risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient includes: The coupling degree calculation formula is used to calculate the coupling degree between the risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient of each third-level indicator. The coupling degree calculation formula is:
[0019] Among them, C is the coupling degree between each first-level risk indicator, represents the efficacy coefficient of the mth first-level indicator, represents the efficacy coefficient of the i-th secondary indicator under each primary indicator, It represents the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator.
[0020] In a possible embodiment of the present invention, the coupled disaster loss includes an overall disaster risk loss and a disaster loss rate; and the calculation of the coupled disaster loss of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster based on the coupling degree and the disaster loss of each risk indicator includes: The overall disaster risk loss calculation formula is used to calculate the overall disaster risk loss of LNG ship passing through the lock. The overall disaster risk loss calculation formula is:
[0021] Among them, R is the total disaster risk loss of LNG ship passing through the lock. represents the disaster loss caused by disaster factor j, It represents the coupling degree between the i-th secondary indicator and the j-th secondary indicator, and Q represents the ability to deal with the site and restore production and life when a disaster occurs; The disaster loss rate calculation formula is used to calculate the disaster loss rate of the LNG ship passing through the lock. The disaster loss rate calculation formula is:
[0022] in, is the disaster loss rate of the i-th first-level indicator, is the coupling degree of the first-level indicator, E is the loss rate calculation constant of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, B is the inherent vulnerability coefficient of the disaster, It represents the disaster loss of the jth third-level indicator of the i-th second-level indicator.
[0023] In a second aspect, the present invention further provides a device for predicting LNG ship lock-passing disasters, comprising: A weight calculation module is used to obtain the measured value of the risk indicator in the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, calculate the correlation between the measured value of the risk indicator and the optimal value of the risk indicator, and calculate the weight of the risk indicator; a coupling degree calculation module, configured to calculate an efficacy coefficient of the risk indicator on the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock based on the correlation degree and the weight, and to calculate the coupling degree between the risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient; The disaster prediction module is used to calculate the coupling disaster loss of the LNG ship passing through the lock based on the coupling degree and the disaster loss of each risk indicator.
[0024] In a third aspect, the present invention further provides an electronic device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein: The memory is used to store programs; The processor is coupled to the memory and is configured to execute the program stored in the memory to implement the steps of the method for predicting LNG ship lock passage disasters described in any one of the above embodiments.
[0025] In a fourth aspect, the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium for storing a computer-readable program or instruction, wherein the program or instruction, when executed by a processor, can implement the steps of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster prediction method described in any of the above embodiments. The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: the LNG ship passing lock disaster prediction method provided by the present invention presets the measured values of the risk indicators in the LNG ship passing lock disaster system, calculates the correlation between the measured values of the risk indicators and the optimal values of the risk indicators, and calculates the weights of the risk indicators; constructs the LNG ship passing lock disaster system, determines the risk indicators, and analyzes the LNG ship passing lock disaster; at the same time, calculates the correlation between the measured values of the risk indicators and the optimal values of the risk indicators, and calculates the weights of the risk indicators; considering the importance of each risk indicator, the calculation of the LNG ship passing lock disaster is more accurate; based on the correlation and the weight, the efficacy coefficient of the risk indicator for the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing lock disaster is calculated, and based on the efficacy coefficient, the coupling degree between the risk indicators is calculated; by calculating the coupling degree between the risk indicators, when calculating the LNG ship passing lock disaster, the coupling factors between the various indicators can be fully considered; the coupled disaster loss of the LNG ship passing lock disaster is calculated based on the coupling degree and the disaster loss of each risk indicator, the calculation of the LNG ship passing lock disaster is more accurate, and the action mechanism of the evolution of the coupling risk in the whole process of passing the lock can be revealed. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0026] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.
[0027] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a method for predicting LNG ship lock-passing disasters provided by an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a correlation degree calculation method provided by an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 3 The embodiment of the present invention provides a risk loss parameter change of an LNG ship passing through a lock disaster system; Figure 4 A diagram showing changes in disaster risk loss parameters provided by an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 5 A schematic structural diagram of a device for predicting LNG ship lock passage disasters provided by an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 6 A schematic structural diagram of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0028] The preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein the accompanying drawings constitute a part of this application and are used together with the embodiments of the present invention to illustrate the principles of the present invention, and are not used to limit the scope of the present invention.
[0029] The terms "first," "second," and so on, used in the embodiments of the present invention are for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the number of technical features indicated. Therefore, technical features designated as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one such feature.
[0030] References herein to "embodiments" mean that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiments may be included in at least one embodiment of the present invention. The appearance of this phrase in various places in the specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, nor does it constitute a separate or alternative embodiment that is mutually exclusive of other embodiments. It is understood, both explicitly and implicitly, by those skilled in the art that the embodiments described herein may be combined with other embodiments.
[0031] A specific embodiment of the present invention, as Figure 1 As shown, a method for predicting LNG ship lock-passing disasters is disclosed, comprising: S101, obtaining a measured value of a risk indicator in a preset LNG ship passing through a lock disaster system, calculating a correlation between the measured value of the risk indicator and an optimal value of the risk indicator, and calculating a weight of the risk indicator.
[0032] In an embodiment of the present invention, the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system can be based on the risk consequences caused by the risk factors and risk-bearing objects under the influence of the risk environment during the LNG ship passing through the lock. Therefore, the formation of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster should include the interaction and mutual influence between the risk environment subsystem, the risk source subsystem, the risk-bearing object subsystem and the risk consequence subsystem on a time scale, thereby causing different degrees of casualties, property losses and environmental damage. It can be considered that there are interconnected coupling factors and the interaction between the coupling factors produces the result of attribute changes. Therefore, the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system refers to the relationship and degree of mutual influence and action between different risks and risk factors in the complex attribute change process. Let R be the overall coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, then
[0033] Among them, S represents the risk source subsystem, ,and , represents the jth risk factor in the i-th risk source factor; C represents the risk consequence subsystem, where ,and , represents the jth risk factor in the i-th risk consequence factor; B represents the risk-bearing object subsystem, where ,and , represents the jth risk factor in the i-th risk-bearing factor; E represents the risk environment subsystem, where ,and , Represents the jth risk factor in the i-th risk environment factor.
[0034] In an embodiment of the present invention, the risk indicators in the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system include primary indicators, secondary indicators and tertiary indicators. The primary indicators include risk environment indicators, risk source indicators, risk-bearing object indicators and risk consequence indicators. Each of the primary indicators includes multiple secondary indicators, and each of the secondary indicators includes multiple tertiary indicators.
[0035] According to the definition of the LNG ship lock passage disaster system, the risk primarily stems from the consequences of LNG leakage accidents. Therefore, the risk source subsystem encompasses the risk factors that could potentially cause LNG ship lock passage leakage accidents. Based on relevant domestic and international research on LNG ship leakage risks and the actual operational process of LNG ship lock passage, the risk factors are divided into three categories: crew, ship itself, and external factors. Based on the actual LNG ship lock passage process and relevant management regulations, and due to the significant differences in risk environments, LNG ship lock passage leakage accidents can occur in open waters such as anchorages and pilot channels, as well as within the semi-enclosed space of the lock chamber. Therefore, the risk environment subsystem is the result of the interaction between the natural environment and the traffic environment. Crew and ships are the direct targets of leakage accidents throughout the LNG ship lock passage process, while damage to the lock structure occurs only during lock chamber passage. However, given the complexity and sensitivity of the lock structure, as well as its significant social and economic benefits, these factors are also included in the risk tolerance subsystem for research. The primary hazards of LNG leaks stem from their inherent low temperatures and flammability. When a leak occurs, the leaked LNG can cause freezer burns to personnel in direct contact. Furthermore, it can cause the ship's structure to become brittle and the liquid LNG vaporizes, forming a flammable gas cloud. Within the flammable concentration range, upon encountering an ignition source, it can rapidly combust and even explode. Based on fire theory and relevant statistical data, the primary causes of death after a fire are burns from high-temperature gases and toxic gases such as carbon monoxide in the smoke. These gases can easily cause suffocation and death, especially in enclosed spaces such as ship locks. Therefore, the risk consequence subsystem of the LNG ship lock passage disaster system includes three factors: fire, explosion, and toxic and hazardous gases. Furthermore, based on existing research on the consequences of LNG leaks domestically and internationally, and taking into account the actual circumstances of LNG ship lock passage, we further analyze the factors that influence the severity of these three risk consequences: fire, explosion, and toxic and hazardous gases. These factors include leak rate, leak duration, ignition source density, spatial enclosure, distance between the risk-bearing object and the flame center, ignition time, gas calorific value, and ignition location. Table 1 shows the composition of the indicators for each subsystem of the LNG ship lock passage disaster system.
[0036] Table 1: LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system risk index table
[0037] By calculating the correlation between the measured values of the risk indicators in Table 1 and the optimal values, the weight of each risk indicator can be calculated. The specific calculation method will be described in detail later in this invention.
[0038] S102 , calculating an efficacy coefficient of the risk indicator to the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster based on the correlation degree and the weight, and calculating a coupling degree between the risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient.
[0039] In an embodiment of the present invention, the efficacy coefficient of the risk indicator on the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster refers to the effect of a single risk indicator on the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster. The efficacy coefficient of each risk indicator can be calculated according to the correlation and weight of each risk indicator. The specific calculation method will be described in detail later in the present invention.
[0040] S103, calculating the coupling disaster loss of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster based on the coupling degree and the disaster losses of each risk indicator.
[0041] In an embodiment of the present invention, after calculating the coupling degree of each risk indicator in the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster, the disaster losses of each risk indicator can be combined to calculate the coupled disaster losses of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster. The specific calculation method will be described in detail later in the present invention.
[0042] The LNG ship passing lock disaster prediction method provided by the present invention presets the measured values of risk indicators in the LNG ship passing lock disaster system, calculates the correlation between the measured values of the risk indicators and the optimal values of the risk indicators, and calculates the weights of the risk indicators. By constructing the LNG ship passing lock disaster system, determining the risk indicators, and analyzing the LNG ship passing lock disaster, the correlation between the measured values of the risk indicators and the optimal values of the risk indicators is calculated, and the weights of the risk indicators are calculated. Considering the importance of each risk indicator, the calculation of the LNG ship passing lock disaster is more accurate; based on the correlation and the weight, the efficacy coefficient of the risk indicator for the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing lock disaster is calculated, and based on the efficacy coefficient, the coupling degree between the risk indicators is calculated. By calculating the coupling degree between the risk indicators, the coupling factors between the various indicators can be fully considered when calculating the LNG ship passing lock disaster. The coupled disaster loss of the LNG ship passing lock disaster is calculated based on the coupling degree and the disaster loss of each risk indicator. The calculation of the LNG ship passing lock disaster is more accurate and the action mechanism of the coupling risk evolution of the entire lock passing process can be revealed.
[0043] In some possible embodiments of the present invention, Figure 2 As shown, the correlation between the calculated measured value of the risk indicator and the optimal value of the risk indicator includes: S201, obtaining the measured value of each third-level indicator, and calculating the first correlation degree between the measured value of each third-level indicator and the optimal value; S202, calculating a second correlation degree between the measured value of each secondary indicator and the optimal value based on the first correlation degree of each third-level indicator under each secondary indicator; S203: Calculate the third correlation between the measured value and the optimal value of each first-level indicator based on the second correlation of each second-level indicator under each first-level indicator.
[0044] In the embodiment of the present invention, based on the constructed index system, the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system index system is divided into three levels: the highest level (first level index: risk environment index C1, risk source index C2, risk consequence index C3), the middle level (second level index Fi, i=1, 2, …, m), and the lowest level (with the second level index F i The corresponding third-level indicator is F ij ,j=1, 2, … ,n). Let d ij The third-level coupling index F corresponding to the second-level index ij The original value of , then we have the following matrix:
[0045] Among them, D i represents the initial vector of the i-th secondary index, d ij It represents the original value of the jth third-level indicator in the i-th second-level indicator, and n represents the number of third-level indicators contained in the second-level indicator.
[0046] In order to eliminate the influence of dimension on vector, the matrix can be standardized to obtain the standard matrix of each evaluation index.
[0047] Assume d ij max is the secondary indicator F i Corresponding third-level indicator F ij The optimal value of , then:
[0048] Where, is the optimal vector of the secondary coupling index.
[0049] D i As the compared vector, As a reference vector, the correlation calculation formula between the three-level coupling index and the optimal index value is:
[0050] Where, is the third-level coupling index F ij The correlation coefficient between the actual value and the optimal value; k represents the number of the three-level coupling index, k=1, 2, …, n; It represents the resolution coefficient, which is 0.5; min and max are the functions of taking the minimum value and the maximum value respectively.
[0051] Due to the lack of data required for the calculation of the coupling index of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, and the actual data still needs to be standardized after acquisition, a standard score of 10 points is used as the third-level index F ij The optimal value of dij max =10.
[0052] Specifically, as shown in Table 2, it is a correlation table between the measured values of each risk indicator and the optimal value: Table 2: Correlation between measured values and optimal values of risk indicators
[0053] The embodiment of the present invention calculates the correlation between the measured value of each risk indicator and the risk value, thereby facilitating the subsequent calculation of the weight of each risk value.
[0054] In some possible embodiments of the present invention, the weight calculation formula of the risk indicator is:
[0055]
[0056]
[0057]
[0058]
[0059] in, is the importance of the i-th third-level indicator of the j-th second-level indicator under the first-level indicator, is the average importance of the secondary indicators and the upper indicators under the first-level indicator, n is the number of third-level indicators under the j-th second-level indicator, is the square root of the judgment matrix, is the weight value of the i-th third-level indicator of the k-th second-level indicator, is the information entropy of the jth third-level indicator of the i-th second-level indicator, m is the number of second-level indicators, is the entropy weight of the i-th secondary indicator, is the information entropy of the i-th secondary indicator, is the weight of the jth third-level indicator of the i-th second-level indicator, is the weight of the i-th secondary indicator.
[0060] In the embodiment of the present invention, the importance of the i-th third-level indicator of the j-th second-level indicator under the first-level indicator is It can be represented by a matrix.
[0061] In some possible embodiments of the present invention, the calculation formula for the efficacy coefficient of the risk index calculated based on the correlation degree and the weight for the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster is:
[0062]
[0063] in, is the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator, is the weight of the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator, and are the upper and lower limits of the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator.
[0064] In the embodiment of the present invention, the weight of the jth indicator under the i-th subsystem of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system obtained based on the hierarchical analysis method is After calculating the weight of each indicator, the comprehensive value of the first-level and second-level indicators can be calculated. is a characteristic vector, then the i-th subsystem has a comprehensive index for the entire LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system Available , i=1, 2, ..., n to calculate, and then can be composed , and finally adopted Calculate the comprehensive index of each subsystem. Table 3 shows the calculation results of the comprehensive index of each indicator.
[0065]
[0066]
[0067] In some possible embodiments of the present invention, the calculating the coupling degree between risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient includes: The coupling degree calculation formula is used to calculate the coupling degree between the risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient of each third-level indicator. The coupling degree calculation formula is:
[0068] Among them, C is the coupling degree between each risk indicator, represents the efficacy coefficient of the mth first-level indicator, represents the efficacy coefficient of the i-th secondary indicator under each primary indicator, It represents the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator.
[0069] The calculation of the coupled disaster loss of the LNG ship passing through the lock based on the coupling degree and the disaster loss of each risk indicator includes: The overall disaster risk loss calculation formula is used to calculate the overall disaster risk loss of LNG ship passing through the lock. The overall disaster risk loss calculation formula is:
[0070] Among them, R is the total disaster risk loss of LNG ship passing through the lock. represents the disaster loss caused by disaster factor j, It represents the coupling degree between the i-th secondary indicator and the j-th secondary indicator, and Q represents the ability to deal with the site and restore production and life when a disaster occurs; The disaster loss rate calculation formula is used to calculate the disaster loss rate of the LNG ship passing through the lock. The disaster loss rate calculation formula is:
[0071] in, is the disaster loss rate of the i-th first-level indicator, is the coupling degree of the first-level indicator, E is the loss rate calculation constant of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, B is the inherent vulnerability coefficient of the disaster, It represents the disaster loss of the jth third-level indicator of the i-th second-level indicator.
[0072] like Figure 4As shown in the figure, the changes in the disaster risk loss parameters of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system are as follows. It can be seen from the figure that the loss rate of explosion disaster grows the fastest and reaches the maximum value first. Since there is leakage and explosion in the semi-enclosed space in the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, the explosion has a greater impact on risk-bearing objects such as personnel and structures. Therefore, the loss rate of explosion risk is the largest; the loss rate of fire disaster develops at a moderate speed, and its peak value appears later than the explosion peak, which also shows that for large-scale LNG leakage in the semi-enclosed space, the occurrence of fire is very likely to be accompanied by the occurrence of explosion; the loss rate of toxic and harmful gases grows the slowest and reaches the maximum value the latest, which are similar to the characteristics of their respective disasters. Because explosions are instantaneous events, they cause the fastest rate of damage and then decline rapidly, but other injuries can occur after the explosion. The occurrence of fires is related to their development characteristics, including five stages: initial onset, development, intensity, decline, and extinction. When a fire reaches the intensity stage, the fire loss rate is at its highest and is almost uncontrollable. The occurrence of toxic gas disasters is closely related to environmental factors. After the toxic gas appears and acts on the hazard-bearing body, it undergoes a diffusion-absorption-reaction process, mainly causing human poisoning and suffocation or environmental pollution. This process is gradual, so the loss rate takes a long time to reach its maximum value. In addition, corresponding to the risk loss rate of each disaster, the corresponding disaster risk loss degree also shows different growth trends. The overall trend has an exponential growth stage and a gradual growth stage, and finally reaches a stable value. However, the explosion loss degree reaches its maximum value when the fire is still in the exponential growth stage, while the toxic gas is in the gradual growth stage, and the fire has almost reached a stable state. Disaster relief is most effective when control measures are implemented before exponential growth.
[0073] In order to better implement the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster prediction method in the embodiment of the present invention, based on the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster prediction method, correspondingly, Figure 5 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a device for predicting LNG ship passing through a lock. The device 500 for predicting LNG ship passing through a lock includes: The weight calculation module 501 is used to obtain the measured value of the risk indicator in the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, calculate the correlation between the measured value of the risk indicator and the optimal value of the risk indicator, and calculate the weight of the risk indicator; A coupling degree calculation module 502 is configured to calculate an efficacy coefficient of the risk indicator to the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock based on the correlation degree and the weight, and calculate a coupling degree between the risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient; The disaster prediction module 503 is configured to calculate the coupled disaster loss of the LNG ship passing through the lock based on the coupling degree and the disaster loss of each risk indicator.
[0074] The LNG ship passing through the lock disaster prediction device 500 provided in the above embodiment can implement the technical solution described in the above LNG ship passing through the lock disaster prediction method embodiment. The specific implementation principles of the above modules or units can refer to the corresponding contents in the above LNG ship passing through the lock disaster prediction method embodiment, which will not be repeated here.
[0075] like Figure 6 As shown, the present invention also provides an electronic device 600. The electronic device 600 includes a processor 601, a memory 602 and a display 603. Figure 6 Only some of the components of the electronic device 600 are shown, but it should be understood that implementation of all of the shown components is not required, and more or fewer components may be implemented instead.
[0076] In some embodiments, the processor 601 may be a central processing unit (CPU), a microprocessor, or other data processing chip, configured to execute program codes or process data stored in the memory 602, such as the LNG ship lock-passing disaster prediction method of the present invention.
[0077] In some embodiments, processor 601 may be a single server or a server group. The server group may be centralized or distributed. In some embodiments, processor 601 may be local or remote. In some embodiments, processor 601 may be implemented on a cloud platform. In some embodiments, the cloud platform may include a private cloud, a public cloud, a hybrid cloud, a community cloud, a distributed cloud, an internal cloud, multiple clouds, or any combination thereof.
[0078] In some embodiments, the memory 602 may be an internal storage unit of the electronic device 600, such as a hard disk or memory of the electronic device 600. In other embodiments, the memory 602 may also be an external storage device of the electronic device 600, such as a plug-in hard disk, a smart media card (SMC), a secure digital (SD) card, a flash card, etc. equipped on the electronic device 600.
[0079] Furthermore, the memory 602 may include both an internal storage unit of the electronic device 600 and an external storage device. The memory 602 is used to store application software installed in the electronic device 600 and various data.
[0080] In some embodiments, the display 603 can be an LED display, a liquid crystal display, a touch-sensitive liquid crystal display, or an OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode) touchscreen. The display 603 is used to display information about the electronic device 600 and to display a visual user interface. Components 601-603 of the electronic device 600 communicate with each other via a system bus.
[0081] In some embodiments, when the processor 601 executes the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster prediction program in the memory 602, the following steps may be implemented: Obtaining the measured value of the risk indicator in the preset LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, calculating the correlation between the measured value of the risk indicator and the optimal value of the risk indicator, and calculating the weight of the risk indicator; Calculating an efficacy coefficient of the risk indicator on the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster based on the correlation degree and the weight, and calculating the coupling degree between the risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient; The coupling disaster loss of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster is calculated based on the coupling degree and the disaster loss of each risk indicator.
[0082] It should be understood that, when the processor 601 executes the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster prediction program in the memory 602 , in addition to the above functions, it can also implement other functions. For details, please refer to the description of the corresponding method embodiment above.
[0083] Accordingly, an embodiment of the present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, which is used to store computer-readable programs or instructions. When the program or instructions are executed by a processor, it can implement the steps or functions of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster prediction method provided by the above-mentioned method embodiments.
[0084] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that all or part of the process steps of the above-described embodiments can be implemented by instructing related hardware through a computer program, and the program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a read-only memory, or a random access memory.
[0085] The above description is only a preferred specific embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any changes or substitutions that can be easily thought of by any technician familiar with this technical field within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention should be covered by the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims
1. A method for predicting LNG ship lock-passing disasters, characterized in that: include: Obtaining a measured value of a risk indicator in the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, calculating a correlation between the measured value of the risk indicator and an optimal value of the risk indicator, and calculating a weight of the risk indicator; Calculating an efficacy coefficient of the risk indicator on the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster based on the correlation degree and the weight, and calculating the coupling degree between the risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient; The coupling disaster loss of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster is calculated based on the coupling degree and the disaster loss of each risk indicator.
2. The LNG ship lock-passing disaster prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The risk indicators in the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system include primary indicators, secondary indicators and tertiary indicators. The primary indicators include risk environment indicators, risk source indicators, risk-bearing object indicators and risk consequence indicators. Each of the primary indicators includes multiple secondary indicators, and each of the secondary indicators includes multiple tertiary indicators.
3. The method for predicting LNG ship lock-passing disasters according to claim 2, characterized in that: The calculating of the correlation between the measured value of the risk indicator and the optimal value of the risk indicator includes: Obtaining the measured values of each third-level indicator, and calculating the first correlation degree between the measured values of each third-level indicator and the optimal value; Calculate the second correlation degree between the measured value and the optimal value of each secondary indicator based on the first correlation degree of each third-level indicator under each secondary indicator; The third correlation degree between the measured value and the optimal value of each first-level indicator is calculated based on the second correlation degree of each second-level indicator under each first-level indicator.
4. The method for predicting LNG ship lock-passing disasters according to claim 3, characterized in that: The weight calculation formula of the risk indicator is: in, is the importance of the i-th third-level indicator of the j-th second-level indicator under the first-level indicator, is the average importance of the secondary indicators and the upper indicators under the first-level indicator, n is the number of third-level indicators under the j-th second-level indicator, is the square root of the judgment matrix, is the weight value of the i-th third-level indicator of the k-th second-level indicator, is the information entropy of the jth third-level indicator of the i-th second-level indicator, m is the number of second-level indicators, is the entropy weight of the i-th secondary indicator, is the information entropy of the i-th secondary indicator, is the weight of the jth third-level indicator of the i-th second-level indicator, is the weight of the i-th secondary indicator.
5. The method for predicting LNG ship lock-passing disasters according to claim 4, characterized in that: The calculation formula for the efficacy coefficient of the risk index calculated based on the correlation degree and the weight for the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster is: in, is the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator, is the weight of the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator, and are the upper and lower limits of the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator.
6. The method for predicting LNG ship lock-passing disasters according to claim 5, characterized in that: Calculating the coupling degree between risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient includes: The coupling degree calculation formula is used to calculate the coupling degree between the risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient of each third-level indicator. The coupling degree calculation formula is: Among them, C is the coupling degree between each first-level risk indicator, represents the efficacy coefficient of the mth first-level indicator, represents the efficacy coefficient of the i-th secondary indicator under each primary indicator, It represents the efficacy coefficient of the jth third-level indicator under the i-th second-level indicator.
7. The method for predicting LNG ship lock-passing disasters according to claim 6, characterized in that: The coupled disaster loss includes the overall disaster risk loss and the disaster loss rate; the calculation of the coupled disaster loss of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster based on the coupling degree and the disaster loss of each risk indicator includes: The overall disaster risk loss calculation formula is used to calculate the overall disaster risk loss of LNG ship passing through the lock. The overall disaster risk loss calculation formula is: Among them, R is the total disaster risk loss of LNG ship passing through the lock. represents the disaster loss caused by disaster factor j, It represents the coupling degree between the i-th secondary indicator and the j-th secondary indicator, and Q represents the ability to deal with the site and restore production and life when a disaster occurs; The disaster loss rate calculation formula is used to calculate the disaster loss rate of the LNG ship passing through the lock. The disaster loss rate calculation formula is: in, is the disaster loss rate of the i-th first-level indicator, is the coupling degree of the first-level indicator, E is the loss rate calculation constant of the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, B is the inherent vulnerability coefficient of the disaster, It represents the disaster loss of the jth third-level indicator of the i-th second-level indicator.
8. A device for predicting LNG ship lock disasters, characterized in that: include: A weight calculation module is used to obtain the measured value of the risk indicator in the LNG ship passing through the lock disaster system, calculate the correlation between the measured value of the risk indicator and the optimal value of the risk indicator, and calculate the weight of the risk indicator; a coupling degree calculation module, configured to calculate an efficacy coefficient of the risk indicator on the coupling risk of the LNG ship passing through the lock based on the correlation degree and the weight, and to calculate the coupling degree between the risk indicators based on the efficacy coefficient; The disaster prediction module is used to calculate the coupling disaster loss of the LNG ship passing through the lock based on the coupling degree and the disaster loss of each risk indicator.
9. An electronic device, characterized in that: comprising a memory and a processor, wherein, The memory is used to store programs; The processor is coupled to the memory and is used to execute the program stored in the memory to implement the steps of the LNG ship lock passage disaster prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that Used to store computer-readable programs or instructions, which, when executed by a processor, can implement the steps of the LNG ship lock-passing disaster prediction method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.