Storage medium, carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method, device and equipment

Abstract

The invention discloses a storage medium, and a carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method, device and equipment. The method comprises the steps of generating a failure possibility evaluation result of a to-be-evaluated carbon dioxide pipeline section through a preset failure possibility evaluation system; the failure possibility evaluation result comprises a failure possibility value; generating a consequence severity evaluation result of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated through a preset consequence severity evaluation system; the consequence severity result comprises a consequence severity value; evaluating the pipe section risk grade of the to-be-evaluated carbon dioxide pipe section through a preset risk matrix according to a set failure possibility and consequence severity grading standard; calculating a risk value according to the failure possibility value and the consequence severity value; the risk values are used for carrying out risk sorting on the to-be-evaluated carbon dioxide pipe sections with the same risk level; according to the invention, under the condition that the pipe section risk levels of a plurality of carbon dioxide pipe sections to be assessed are the same, the risk degrees of the carbon dioxide pipe sections to be assessed can be sorted; therefore, the accuracy and effectiveness of risk prediction of the carbon dioxide pipeline are improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of CCUS, and particularly to storage media, methods, apparatus and equipment for predicting risks in carbon dioxide pipelines. Background Technology

[0002] In the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage) will become an important technology for large-scale carbon emission reduction. Carbon dioxide transportation is a key link in achieving source-sink matching for CCUS and serves as a link between capture and storage sites. Among these, pipeline transportation is the most economical, energy-saving, and safe way to transport carbon dioxide on a large scale and over long distances.

[0003] To ensure the safe operation of carbon dioxide pipelines and prevent environmental pollution and property damage, risk prediction for carbon dioxide pipelines is necessary.

[0004] In existing technologies, carbon dioxide pipelines generally adopt risk prediction technologies that are already mature for oil and gas pipelines. However, the inventors have found through research that due to significant differences in the corrosiveness of the medium and operating conditions between carbon dioxide and oil and gas pipelines, the risk prediction technologies used for oil and gas pipelines cannot achieve good prediction results when applied to carbon dioxide pipelines. This makes it difficult to provide technical support for determining safety distances during construction and for risk classification and management during operation.

[0005] As can be seen from the above, there is an urgent need for a method that can accurately predict the risks of carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0006] The information disclosed in this background section is intended only to enhance the understanding of the overall background of the invention and should not be construed as an admission or in any way implying that the information constitutes prior art known to those skilled in the art. Summary of the Invention

[0007] The purpose of this invention is to enable accurate prediction of the risks associated with carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0008] This invention provides a method for predicting the risks of carbon dioxide pipelines, comprising the following steps:

[0009] S11. Generate the failure probability assessment result of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated through a preset failure probability assessment system; the failure probability assessment result includes the failure probability value.

[0010] S12. Generate the severity assessment results of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed through a preset severity assessment system; the severity assessment results include severity values.

[0011] S13. Using a preset risk matrix, evaluate the risk level of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed based on the set failure probability and severity of consequences classification standards.

[0012] S14. Calculate the risk value based on the failure probability value and the severity of the consequences value; the risk value is used to rank the carbon dioxide pipeline sections to be evaluated according to the same risk level.

[0013] Preferably, in this invention, the construction step of the failure probability assessment system includes:

[0014] S101. Determine the consequences of carbon dioxide pipelines and establish a structural framework for a failure probability assessment system; the structural framework includes three levels of factors;

[0015] S102. The primary factors in the failure probability assessment system are set to include third-party damage, corrosion, geological disaster damage, material defects, and misoperation.

[0016] S103. Set the secondary factors corresponding to each primary factor; the secondary factors corresponding to corrosion include internal corrosion and external corrosion;

[0017] S104. Set the consequences of each secondary factor as tertiary factors; the tertiary factors corresponding to internal corrosion include internal corrosion rate and internal anti-corrosion measures; the tertiary factors are expressed in a qualitative description or quantitative numerical way.

[0018] In another aspect of the present invention, a carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device is also provided, comprising:

[0019] The failure probability acquisition unit is used to generate a failure probability assessment result for the carbon dioxide pipe segment to be evaluated through a preset failure probability assessment system; the failure probability assessment result includes a failure probability value.

[0020] The consequence severity acquisition unit is used to generate a consequence severity assessment result for the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed through a preset consequence severity assessment system; the consequence severity result includes a consequence severity value.

[0021] The risk level acquisition unit is used to evaluate the risk level of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed based on a preset risk matrix and the set failure probability and severity of consequences classification standards.

[0022] The pipe segment risk value acquisition unit is used to calculate the risk value based on the failure probability value and the severity of the consequences value; the risk value is used to rank the carbon dioxide pipe segments to be evaluated according to the same risk level.

[0023] In another aspect of this invention, a carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device is also provided. The carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device includes a computer program stored on a medium. The computer program includes program instructions. When the program instructions are executed by a computer, the computer performs the methods described in the above aspects and achieves the same technical effect.

[0024] In another aspect of the present invention, a storage medium is also provided, on which a computer program is stored, which, when executed by a processor, implements the various steps of the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method as described in any of the preceding embodiments.

[0025] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0026] To achieve comprehensive and accurate risk prediction for carbon dioxide pipelines, this invention combines a failure probability assessment system and a consequence severity assessment system to obtain the failure probability value and consequence severity value of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed, respectively. In this invention, on the one hand, a pre-set risk matrix is ​​used to obtain the risk level of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed; on the other hand, the specific risk value is calculated by multiplying the failure probability value and consequence severity value. This allows for the ranking of the risk levels of multiple carbon dioxide pipeline segments to be assessed, even when they have the same risk level, thereby improving the accuracy and effectiveness of risk prediction for carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0027] Furthermore, in order to systematically and comprehensively assess the failure probability of carbon dioxide pipelines, this invention constructs a three-level failure probability evaluation system. The consequence influencing factors in the failure probability evaluation system of this invention are determined by analyzing the causes of carbon dioxide pipeline failure. The inventors have found through research that, in the application scenario of carbon dioxide pipelines, the degree of failure probability is significantly related to the factor of internal corrosion of the pipeline. Therefore, this invention sets internal corrosion and external corrosion as secondary factors in the failure probability evaluation system, and uses internal corrosion rate and internal anti-corrosion measures as tertiary factors corresponding to internal corrosion to improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of assessing the failure probability of carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0028] Furthermore, the inventors discovered that for carbon dioxide pipelines, the impact of simple internal or external corrosion on the failure probability is linear, and the final score of the failure probability evaluation system can be obtained by assigning scores based on the monitoring results. However, once both internal and external corrosion reach their respective thresholds, the pipeline strength of the carbon dioxide pipeline will decrease significantly, thereby seriously affecting the failure probability of the carbon dioxide pipeline. In other words, when both internal and external corrosion reach their respective thresholds, it is equivalent to significantly increasing the score for defect induction.

[0029] Based on the above research findings, this invention also generates additional correction coefficients for correcting defect-induced scores based on the scores of internal and external corrosion, thereby further improving the comprehensiveness and accuracy of assessing the failure probability of carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0030] This invention requires risk prediction of carbon dioxide pipelines based on their failure probability. Because this invention can effectively improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of assessing the failure probability of carbon dioxide pipelines, it can also improve the accuracy and effectiveness of risk prediction for carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0031] The above description is merely an overview of the technical solution of the present invention. In order to better understand the technical means of the present invention and to implement it according to the contents of the specification, and to make the above and other objects, technical features and advantages of the present invention easier to understand, one or more preferred embodiments are listed below and described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Attached Figure Description

[0032] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating the steps of the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method described in this invention;

[0033] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the risk matrix described in this invention;

[0034] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device described in this invention;

[0035] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device described in this invention. Detailed Implementation

[0036] The specific embodiments of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, but it should be understood that the scope of protection of the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments.

[0037] Unless otherwise expressly stated, throughout the specification and claims, the term "comprising" or its variations such as "including" or "comprises" shall be understood to include the stated elements or components without excluding other elements or other components.

[0038] In this document, for ease of description, spatial relative terms such as “below,” “under,” “down,” “above,” “above,” “upper,” etc., are used to describe the relationship of one element or feature to another element or feature in the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that spatial relative terms are intended to encompass different orientations of an object in use or operation, in addition to those depicted in the figures. For example, if an object in the figure is flipped, an element described as “below” or “under” another element or feature would be oriented “above” that element or feature. Thus, the exemplary term “below” can encompass both the downward and upward orientations. An object may also have other orientations (rotated 90 degrees or other orientations), and the spatial relative terms used herein should be interpreted accordingly.

[0039] In this document, the terms "first," "second," etc., are used to distinguish two different elements or parts, and are not used to define specific positions or relative relationships. In other words, in some embodiments, the terms "first," "second," etc., can also be used interchangeably.

[0040] Example 1

[0041] In order to conduct comprehensive and accurate risk prediction for carbon dioxide pipelines, such as Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment of the invention provides a method for predicting the risk of carbon dioxide pipelines, including the following steps:

[0042] S11. Generate the failure probability assessment result of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated through a preset failure probability assessment system; the failure probability assessment result includes the failure probability value.

[0043] In this embodiment of the invention, when dividing carbon dioxide pipelines into sections, different laying environments such as densely populated areas, important facility areas, and environmentally sensitive areas around the pipeline can be considered. The factors to be considered when dividing risk units include stations, valve chambers, and high-consequence areas. At the same time, factors such as pipeline wall thickness, crossings, terrain conditions, and administrative regions should also be considered to achieve classification and division.

[0044] In this step, the construction steps of the failure probability assessment system may specifically include:

[0045] S101. Determine the consequences of carbon dioxide pipelines and establish a structural framework for a failure probability assessment system; the structural framework includes three levels of factors;

[0046] When constructing a failure probability assessment system, specific methods may include:

[0047] S01. Analyze the causes of carbon dioxide pipeline failure and identify the main factors affecting the consequences.

[0048] S02. Clarify the dynamic / static types of supporting data for consequences and influencing factors, sort out existing methods of acquiring dynamic data, and establish a mapping relationship between consequences and influencing factors and dynamic data.

[0049] Based on the identification results of the consequences influencing factors, the supporting data types of each underlying consequence influencing factor are clarified, namely dynamic or static. The existing dynamic data acquisition methods are sorted out, and the mapping relationship between consequence influencing factors and dynamic data is established.

[0050] The dynamic data acquisition methods include manual inspection, drone patrol, fiber optic vibration monitoring, video surveillance, pipe stress monitoring, cathodic protection monitoring, stray current monitoring, atmospheric / meteorological environment monitoring, geological disaster monitoring, internal inspection, external inspection, geological disaster reconnaissance, SCADA operation data monitoring, management data, and production data.

[0051] S03. Use qualitative description and numerical quantification to classify the factors affecting the consequences, specify the factor quantification scores of the factors affecting the consequences, and then construct a failure probability assessment factor system.

[0052] Qualitative description and numerical quantification are used to classify the factors affecting the consequences, and quantitative scores are specified for each factor to construct a failure probability assessment system.

[0053] S102. The primary factors in the failure probability assessment system are set to include third-party damage, corrosion, geological disaster damage, material defects, and misoperation.

[0054] Based on research into the actual operating status of carbon dioxide pipelines and historical data records, this embodiment of the invention sets the primary factors into five major categories: third-party damage, corrosion, geological disaster damage, material defects, and misoperation.

[0055] S103. Set the secondary factors corresponding to each primary factor; the secondary factors corresponding to corrosion include internal corrosion and external corrosion;

[0056] Through research and experimentation, the inventors discovered that in the application scenario of carbon dioxide pipelines, the likelihood of failure is significantly related to the factor of internal corrosion. Therefore, in the failure probability evaluation system, this invention adds internal corrosion as an additional secondary factor to external corrosion.

[0057] S104. Set the consequences of each secondary factor as tertiary factors; the tertiary factors corresponding to internal corrosion include internal corrosion rate and internal anti-corrosion measures; the tertiary factors are expressed in a qualitative description or quantitative numerical way.

[0058] In practical applications, each primary factor can be assigned its own corresponding secondary factor. In a specific example, the tertiary factors corresponding to each secondary factor can be as follows:

[0059] Secondary factors corresponding to third-party sabotage include potential sabotage activities and preventative measures.

[0060] The three-level factors corresponding to potential disruptive activities include third-party construction, cultivation and greening, security and terrorist incidents, crushing and encroachment; the three-level factors corresponding to protective measures include pipeline burial depth, line patrol, information communication, enterprise-community collaboration, protection publicity, ground marking, additional protection and monitoring / early warning.

[0061] Corrosion comprises two secondary factors: internal corrosion and external corrosion. Internal corrosion is influenced by a combination of factors in the CO2 pipeline, including gaseous impurities (H2O, O2, SO2, H2S, N2, etc.), operating parameters (temperature, pressure, flow rate, etc.), and pipeline material (X52, X65, X70, etc., and elemental content such as Cr). However, regardless of the complexity of the internal corrosion mechanism, the internal corrosion rate can represent the corrosiveness of the internal corrosion environment. In other words, the internal corrosion rate can be calculated (estimated) based on the gaseous impurities, operating parameters, and pipeline material of the CO2 pipeline. In practical applications, data obtained from monitoring devices such as corrosion strips, corrosion test sections, resistance probes, and inductive probes can also be used to obtain the internal corrosion rate of the CO2 pipeline.

[0062] Based on this, internal corrosion prevention measures can also be combined as the underlying factor of internal corrosion, that is, internal corrosion includes two tertiary factors: corrosivity (internal corrosion rate) and internal corrosion prevention measures.

[0063] External corrosion can be divided into soil corrosion or atmospheric corrosion based on the external environment. Specifically, it includes six tertiary factors: DC interference, AC interference, cathodic protection condition, anti-corrosion layer condition, soil corrosivity, and atmospheric corrosion.

[0064] The secondary factors corresponding to geological disaster damage include disaster risk, disaster induction, and disaster prevention;

[0065] The three-level factors corresponding to disaster risk include disaster susceptibility and pipeline vulnerability; the three-level factors corresponding to disaster induction include rainfall; and the three-level factors corresponding to disaster prevention include prevention and control projects and monitoring and early warning.

[0066] Material defects refer to defects that occur in pipelines during the manufacturing, construction, and operation stages. The corresponding secondary factors include defect conditions and defect induction.

[0067] The three-level factors corresponding to the defect status include the severity of the defect; the three-level factors corresponding to the defect induction include fatigue load, additional stress, operating pressure, and design factor.

[0068] Secondary factors corresponding to misoperation include management systems, operating procedures, personnel training, supervision and assessment, reward and punishment mechanisms, health checks, and error prevention devices.

[0069] In a specific example of the present invention, the mapping relationship between the consequences influencing factors and dynamic data can be shown in Table 1;

[0070] Table 1:

[0071]

[0072]

[0073] Qualitative description and numerical quantification are used to classify each of the three-level factors, and quantitative scores for the three-level factors are specified to construct a failure probability assessment system, as shown in Tables 2 to 6. Specifically:

[0074] Regarding third-party sabotage as a primary factor (refer to Table 2), security and terrorist incidents are classified into Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 security risk levels from high to low according to GA 1166; key targets are classified into Level 3, Level 2, and Level 1 key targets from low to high according to GA 1551.6; ground markings should comply with the requirements of SH / T 3202 and SY / T 6064.

[0075] Table 2:

[0076]

[0077]

[0078] Regarding primary factor corrosion (refer to Table 3), internal corrosion can be classified as severe, moderate, medium, low, and none based on the average corrosion rate / pitting rate; AC interference can be classified as strong, medium, and weak based on AC current density or corrosion rate; cathodic protection status is determined by whether the cathodic protection potential is over-protected or under-protected through the absence of IR drop; the condition of the anti-corrosion layer is classified into 4 levels based on external inspection results; soil corrosivity is evaluated based on the scores of 8 parameters, including soil resistivity, pipeline natural corrosion potential, redox potential, soil pH, soil texture, soil moisture content, soil salinity, and soil Cl- content, and is classified into 4 evaluation levels; atmospheric corrosivity is classified into 6 levels, determined by two methods: the corrosion rate in the first year or a qualitative description of typical environments.

[0079] Table 3:

[0080]

[0081]

[0082] Regarding primary-level geological hazards (refer to Table 4), the hazard susceptibility assessment can be divided into three levels: high or large, medium, and low or weak. The degree of geological hazard development is divided into three levels: strong development, medium development, and weak development based on the deformation and damage characteristics of the geological body. The pipeline vulnerability assessment can be divided into three levels: high, medium, and low. The geological hazard severity is divided into three levels: large, medium, and small. Rainfall is divided into seven levels based on the rainfall depth within 24 hours. Prevention and control projects are divided into Level I, Level II, and Level III based on the geological hazard severity. The monitoring and early warning levels should be divided into Level I, Level II, and Level III. The geological hazard early warning levels should be divided into Level I (particularly severe), Level II (severe), Level III (relatively severe), and Level IV (general), represented by red, orange, yellow, and blue respectively.

[0083] Table 4:

[0084]

[0085] Regarding the primary factor of material defects (refer to Table 5), the severity of defects is based on quantitative data of pipe defects obtained from internal inspection or excavation inspection. Applicability evaluation is carried out to obtain pipeline defect repair plans, which generally include immediate repair, time-limited repair, and monitored use. The design coefficient is evaluated based on the regional level. That is, under the existing pipeline conditions, if the regional level is upgraded, the strength design coefficient will decrease, and the maximum allowable working pressure of the pipeline will decrease accordingly.

[0086] Table 5:

[0087]

[0088]

[0089] For information on errors caused by primary factors, please refer to Table 6.

[0090] Table 6:

[0091]

[0092] This invention constructs a three-level failure probability evaluation system. The consequences influencing factors in the failure probability evaluation system are determined by analyzing the causes of carbon dioxide pipeline failure. The inventors have found that, in the application environment of carbon dioxide pipelines, the failure probability is significantly related to the internal corrosion of the pipeline. Therefore, this invention sets internal corrosion and external corrosion as secondary factors in the failure probability evaluation system, and uses internal corrosion rate and internal anti-corrosion measures as tertiary factors corresponding to internal corrosion to improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of assessing the failure probability of carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0093] Preferably, the inventors further discovered that for carbon dioxide pipelines, the impact of simple internal corrosion or external corrosion on the failure probability is linear, and the final score of the failure probability evaluation system can be obtained by assigning scores based on their monitoring results. However, once both internal and external corrosion reach their respective thresholds, the pipeline strength (yield limit and fracture toughness) of the carbon dioxide pipeline will decrease significantly, thereby seriously affecting the failure probability of the carbon dioxide pipeline. In other words, when both internal and external corrosion reach their respective thresholds, it is equivalent to significantly increasing the score of defect induction.

[0094] Based on the above research findings, further, in this embodiment of the invention, an additional correction coefficient is also included for correcting the score induced by the defect;

[0095] When the external corrosion is greater than or equal to the first preset value, and the internal corrosion is greater than or equal to the second preset value,

[0096] The score induced by the defect is corrected by the additional correction coefficient; the value of the additional correction coefficient ranges from 1.5 to 2.0.

[0097] It should be noted that in the embodiments of the present invention, the setting of the first preset value and the second preset value can be obtained by those skilled in the art based on eagle eye or a limited number of tests, and no specific limitation is made here; preferably, based on the assignment rules in Table 3, the value of the first preset value can be 10; the value of the second preset value can be 2; that is, when the external corrosion is greater than or equal to 10 and the internal corrosion is greater than or equal to 2, the score of defect induction needs to be corrected by an additional correction coefficient, such as multiplying the original score of defect induction by 1.5 or by 2.0.

[0098] Thus, by generating additional correction coefficients based on the scores of internal and external corrosion to correct the scores induced by defects, the embodiments of the present invention can further improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of assessing the failure probability of carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0099] S12. Generate a severity assessment result for the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be evaluated using a preset method; the severity assessment result includes a severity value.

[0100] The structural framework of the consequence severity evaluation system in this embodiment of the invention may include three levels of indicators, wherein:

[0101] The primary indicator is the consequences of failure; the secondary indicators include the hazard receptor, the surrounding environment, leakage monitoring, emergency shutdown, and accident response.

[0102] The secondary indicators of hazard receptors correspond to the tertiary indicators, which include the high-consequence zone (Level III), the high-consequence zone (Level II), the high-consequence zone (Level I), the non-high-consequence zone, and the unknown.

[0103] The tertiary indicators corresponding to the secondary indicators of the surrounding environment include the presence of low-lying areas, enclosed spaces, and open and well-ventilated areas.

[0104] The tertiary indicators corresponding to the secondary indicator of leakage monitoring include no leakage monitoring warning, leakage monitoring alarm but unable to be accurately located, and leakage monitoring alarm and can be accurately located.

[0105] The tertiary indicators corresponding to the secondary indicator emergency shutdown include no shutdown device, only on-site manual shutdown device, remote shutdown control device, and leakage alarm linkage shutdown device.

[0106] The tertiary indicators corresponding to the secondary indicator accidents include: no emergency measures, having an emergency plan or on-site handling plan but no emergency drills, and having an emergency plan or on-site handling plan and conducting emergency drills regularly.

[0107] In practical applications, the specific methods for assigning values ​​to the severity assessment system are shown in Table 7:

[0108]

[0109]

[0110] S13. Using a preset risk matrix, evaluate the risk level of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed based on the set failure probability and severity of consequences classification standards.

[0111] Compared to the flammable and explosive properties of oil and gas, the consequences of carbon dioxide pipeline failure after a carbon dioxide leak are less severe and have a smaller impact. Therefore, if... Figure 2 As shown in the embodiments of the present invention, a 5×5 risk matrix that focuses on the probability of failure can be preferably used to conduct risk assessment of carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0112] In the risk matrix, the probability of failure is divided into five categories of natural language: low (1), relatively low (2), medium (3), relatively high (4), and high (5). The score range for each category is [0,2), [2,4), [4,6), [6,8), and [8,10]. The severity of the consequences is divided into five categories of natural language: mild (A), relatively mild (B), medium (C), relatively severe (D), and severe (E). The score range for each category is [0,2), [2,4), [4,6), [6,8), and [8,10].

[0113] The risk level of the pipeline section is evaluated based on the 5×5 risk matrix, taking into account factors such as the probability of failure and the severity of the consequences.

[0114] In a specific instance, the failure probability score of a carbon dioxide pipeline segment is 6, and the severity score of the consequences is 4.

[0115] refer to Figure 2 In the risk matrix of the present invention, the failure probability assessment score is 6, which corresponds to a relatively high level (4) in the risk matrix; the consequence severity assessment score is 4, which corresponds to a medium level (C) in the risk matrix; according to the risk matrix, the risk level of the carbon dioxide pipeline is 4C, that is, a relatively high risk.

[0116] S14. Calculate the risk value based on the failure probability value and the severity of the consequences value; the risk value is used to rank the carbon dioxide pipeline sections to be evaluated according to the same risk level.

[0117] When carbon dioxide pipelines are divided into a large number of segments, the method of calculating the risk level of each segment often results in multiple carbon dioxide pipeline segments being included under the same risk level. This leads to a lack of sufficient criteria for ranking the risk status of each carbon dioxide pipeline segment.

[0118] In this embodiment of the invention, a risk value R is calculated by combining the failure probability value P and the consequence severity value C, and pipe sections of the same risk level are ranked according to risk.

[0119] R = P × C

[0120] In this embodiment of the invention, the risk value of this section of carbon dioxide pipeline is 6 × 4 = 24.

[0121] In summary, to achieve comprehensive and accurate risk prediction for carbon dioxide pipelines, this invention combines a failure probability assessment system and a consequence severity assessment system to obtain the failure probability value and consequence severity value of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed, respectively. In this invention, on the one hand, a preset risk matrix is ​​used to obtain the risk level of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed; on the other hand, the specific risk value is calculated by multiplying the failure probability value and consequence severity value. This allows for the ranking of risk levels among multiple carbon dioxide pipeline segments to be assessed, even when they have the same risk level, thereby improving the accuracy and effectiveness of risk prediction for carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0122] Furthermore, in this embodiment of the invention, in order to systematically and comprehensively assess the failure probability of carbon dioxide pipelines, this invention constructs a three-level failure probability evaluation system. The consequence influencing factors in the failure probability evaluation system of this invention are determined by analyzing the causes of carbon dioxide pipeline failure. The inventors have found through research that, in the application scenario of carbon dioxide pipelines, the degree of failure probability is significantly related to the factor of internal corrosion of the pipeline. Therefore, this invention sets internal corrosion and external corrosion as the secondary factors in the failure probability evaluation system, and uses internal corrosion rate and internal anti-corrosion measures as the tertiary factors corresponding to internal corrosion to improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of assessing the failure probability of carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0123] Furthermore, the inventors discovered that for carbon dioxide pipelines, the impact of simple internal or external corrosion on the failure probability is linear, and the final score of the failure probability evaluation system can be obtained by assigning scores based on the monitoring results. However, once both internal and external corrosion reach their respective thresholds, the pipeline strength of the carbon dioxide pipeline will decrease significantly, thereby seriously affecting the failure probability of the carbon dioxide pipeline. In other words, when both internal and external corrosion reach their respective thresholds, it is equivalent to significantly increasing the score for defect induction.

[0124] Based on the above research findings, in this embodiment of the invention, additional correction coefficients are generated based on the scores of internal corrosion and external corrosion to correct the scores induced by defects, thereby further improving the comprehensiveness and accuracy of assessing the failure probability of carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0125] The embodiments of the present invention require risk prediction of carbon dioxide pipelines based on the failure probability of carbon dioxide pipelines. Since the present invention can effectively improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the assessment of the failure probability of carbon dioxide pipelines, it can also improve the accuracy and effectiveness of risk prediction of carbon dioxide pipelines.

[0126] Example 2

[0127] In another aspect of this invention, a carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device is also provided. Figure 3 This diagram illustrates the structure of a carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device provided in an embodiment of the present invention. The carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device is associated with... Figure 1 The device corresponding to the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method in the corresponding embodiment is implemented through a virtual device. Figure 1 In the corresponding embodiment of the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method, the various virtual modules constituting the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device can be executed by electronic devices, such as network devices, terminal devices, or servers. Specifically, the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device in this embodiment of the invention includes:

[0128] Failure probability acquisition unit 01 is used to generate failure probability assessment results for the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated through a preset failure probability assessment system; the failure probability assessment results include failure probability values.

[0129] The consequence severity acquisition unit 02 is used to generate a consequence severity assessment result for the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed through a preset consequence severity assessment system; the consequence severity result includes a consequence severity value.

[0130] Risk level acquisition unit 03 is used to evaluate the risk level of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed based on the preset risk matrix and the set failure probability and severity of consequences classification standards.

[0131] Pipeline segment risk value acquisition unit 04 is used to calculate risk value based on failure probability value and consequence severity value; the risk value is used to rank carbon dioxide pipeline segments to be evaluated with the same risk level.

[0132] Since the working principle and beneficial effects of the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device in the embodiments of the present invention have already been demonstrated... Figure 1 The corresponding carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction methods are also recorded and explained, so they can be referenced together, and will not be repeated here.

[0133] Example 3

[0134] Corresponding to the method embodiments, this invention also provides a carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device, such as a terminal or server. The server can be a standalone physical server, a server cluster or distributed system composed of multiple physical servers, or a cloud server providing basic cloud computing services such as cloud services, cloud databases, cloud computing, cloud functions, cloud storage, network services, cloud communication, middleware services, domain name services, security services, CDN, and big data and artificial intelligence platforms. The terminal can be a smartphone, tablet, laptop, desktop computer, etc., but is not limited to these.

[0135] An example diagram of the hardware structure block diagram of the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device provided in this embodiment of the invention is shown below. Figure 4 As shown, it may include:

[0136] Processor 1, communication interface 2, memory 3, and communication bus 4;

[0137] The processor 1, communication interface 2, and memory 3 communicate with each other via communication bus 4.

[0138] Optionally, communication interface 2 can be an interface of a communication module, such as the interface of a GSM module;

[0139] Processor 1 may be a central processing unit (CPU), an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), or one or more integrated circuits configured to implement the embodiments of this application.

[0140] Memory 3 may include high-speed RAM, and may also include non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk drive.

[0141] Specifically, processor 1 is used to execute the computer program stored in memory 3 to perform the following steps:

[0142] S11. Generate the failure probability assessment result of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated through a preset failure probability assessment system; the failure probability assessment result includes the failure probability value.

[0143] S12. Generate the severity assessment results of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed through a preset severity assessment system; the severity assessment results include severity values.

[0144] S13. Using a preset risk matrix, evaluate the risk level of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed based on the set failure probability and severity of consequences classification standards.

[0145] S14. Calculate the risk value based on the failure probability value and the severity of the consequences value; the risk value is used to rank the carbon dioxide pipeline sections to be evaluated according to the same risk level.

[0146] The above-described product can execute the method provided in the embodiments of the present invention, and has the corresponding functional modules and beneficial effects for executing the method. Technical details not described in detail in this embodiment can be found in the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method provided in the embodiments of the present invention.

[0147] Example 4

[0148] In this embodiment of the invention, a storage medium is also provided, which can store a program suitable for execution by a processor, the program being used for:

[0149] S11. Generate the failure probability assessment result of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated through a preset failure probability assessment system; the failure probability assessment result includes the failure probability value.

[0150] S12. Generate the severity assessment results of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed through a preset severity assessment system; the severity assessment results include severity values.

[0151] S13. Using a preset risk matrix, evaluate the risk level of the carbon dioxide pipeline segment to be assessed based on the set failure probability and severity of consequences classification standards.

[0152] S14. Calculate the risk value based on the failure probability value and the severity of the consequences value; the risk value is used to rank the carbon dioxide pipeline sections to be evaluated according to the same risk level.

[0153] Optionally, the refined and extended functions of the program can be found in the description above.

[0154] The above-described product can execute the methods provided in the embodiments of the present invention, and has the corresponding functional modules and beneficial effects for executing the methods. Technical details not described in detail in this embodiment can be found in the methods provided in other embodiments of the present invention.

[0155] Those skilled in the art will recognize that the units and algorithm steps of the various examples described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, or a combination of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are implemented in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Those skilled in the art can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered beyond the scope of this application.

[0156] In the several embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed systems, apparatuses, and methods can be implemented in other ways. Furthermore, the couplings or direct couplings or communication connections shown or discussed may be indirect couplings or communication connections through interfaces, devices, or units, and may be electrical, mechanical, or other forms.

[0157] The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separate. The components shown as units may or may not be physical units; that is, they may be located in one place or distributed across multiple network units. Some or all of the units can be selected to achieve the purpose of this embodiment according to actual needs.

[0158] In addition, the functional units in the various embodiments of this application can be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit can exist physically separately, or two or more units can be integrated into one unit.

[0159] It should be understood that in the embodiments of this application, the claims, various embodiments, and features can be combined with each other to solve the aforementioned technical problems.

[0160] If the aforementioned functions are implemented as software functional units and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of this application, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or a portion of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions to cause a computer device (which may be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the methods described in the various embodiments of this application. The aforementioned storage medium includes various media capable of storing program code, such as USB flash drives, portable hard drives, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), magnetic disks, or optical disks.

[0161] The above description of the disclosed embodiments enables those skilled in the art to make or use this application. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of this application. Therefore, this application is not to be limited to the embodiments shown herein, but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A method of carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction, characterized by, The method comprises the steps of: S11, generating a failure possibility evaluation result of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated by a preset failure possibility evaluation system; the failure possibility evaluation result comprises a failure possibility value; S12, generating a consequence severity evaluation result of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated by a preset consequence severity evaluation system; the consequence severity result comprises a consequence severity value; S13, evaluating a pipe section risk level of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated according to a preset risk matrix and set failure possibility and consequence severity grading standards; S14, calculating a risk value according to the failure possibility value and the consequence severity value; the risk value is used for risk sorting of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated with the same risk level.

2. The carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method of claim 1, wherein, The construction steps of the failure possibility evaluation system comprise: S101, determining a consequence influencing factor of the carbon dioxide pipeline and setting a structure framework of the failure possibility evaluation system; the structure framework comprises three levels of factors; S102, setting a first-level factor in the failure possibility evaluation system as including third-party damage, corrosion, geological disaster damage, material defect and misoperation; S103, respectively setting corresponding second-level factors of each first-level factor; the second-level factors corresponding to the corrosion include internal corrosion and external corrosion; S104, respectively setting corresponding consequence influencing factors of each second-level factor as third-level factors; the third-level factors corresponding to the internal corrosion include an internal corrosion rate and internal anti-corrosion measures; the third-level factors are expressed in a qualitative description or quantized numerical value manner.

3. The carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method of claim 2, wherein, The method comprises the steps of: The internal corrosion rate is calculated and generated according to gas impurities, operating parameters and pipeline materials of the carbon dioxide pipeline.

4. The carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method according to claim 3, wherein The third-level factors corresponding to the external corrosion include direct current interference, alternating current interference, cathodic protection condition, anti-corrosion layer condition, soil corrosiveness and atmospheric corrosiveness.

5. The carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method according to claim 2, wherein The second-level factors corresponding to the third-party damage include potential damage activities and protection measures; The third-level factors corresponding to the potential damage activities include third-party construction, farming and greening, public security and terrorist event, rolling and occupying; The third-level factors corresponding to the protection measures include pipeline burial depth, line patrol, information contact, enterprise and land joint operation, protection propaganda, ground marking, additional protection and monitoring / monitoring and early warning; The second-level factors corresponding to the geological disaster damage include disaster danger, disaster induction and disaster protection; The third-level factors corresponding to the disaster danger include disaster proneness and pipeline vulnerability; the third-level factors corresponding to the disaster induction include rainfall; the third-level factors corresponding to the disaster protection include prevention engineering and monitoring and early warning; The material defect refers to a defect of the pipeline generated in a manufacturing, construction, operation and other stage, and the second-level factors corresponding to the material defect include defect condition and defect induction; The third-level factors corresponding to the defect condition include defect severity; The third-level factors corresponding to the defect induction include fatigue load, additional stress, operating pressure and design coefficient; The secondary factors corresponding to the misoperation include management system, operation procedure, personnel training, supervision and examination, reward and punishment mechanism, health examination and error-proof device.

6. The carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method of claim 5, wherein, An additional correction coefficient for correcting the defect-induced score is further included. When the external corrosion is greater than or equal to a first preset value, and the internal corrosion is greater than or equal to a second preset value, The defect-induced score is corrected by the additional correction coefficient; the value range of the additional correction coefficient includes 1.5 to 2.

0.

7. The carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method of claim 1, wherein, The preset consequence severity evaluation system includes: The structure framework of the consequence severity evaluation system includes three levels of indexes, wherein: The first level index is failure consequence; the second level indexes include hazard receptor, surrounding environment, leakage monitoring, emergency shutdown and emergency response; The third level indexes corresponding to the second level index hazard receptor include Ⅲ high consequence area, Ⅱ high consequence area, Ⅰ high consequence area, non-high consequence area and unknown; The third level indexes corresponding to the second level index surrounding environment include existence of low-lying place, existence of closed space and open ventilation; The third level indexes corresponding to the second level index leakage monitoring include no leakage monitoring and early warning, leakage monitoring and early warning but unable to accurately locate, and leakage monitoring and early warning and able to accurately locate; The third level indexes corresponding to the second level index emergency shutdown include no shutdown device, only on-site manual shutdown device, remote shutdown control device, and leakage alarm linkage shutdown device The third level indexes corresponding to the second level index emergency response include no any emergency measures, establishment of emergency plan or on-site disposal scheme but no emergency drill, and establishment of emergency plan or on-site disposal scheme and regular emergency drill.

8. The carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method of claim 1, wherein, The risk matrix includes: The 5x5 risk matrix focusing on failure possibility.

9. A carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction apparatus, characterized by, It includes: A failure possibility acquisition unit is configured to generate a failure possibility evaluation result of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated by a preset failure possibility evaluation system; The failure possibility evaluation result includes a failure possibility value; A consequence severity acquisition unit is configured to generate a consequence severity evaluation result of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated by a preset consequence severity evaluation system; the consequence severity result includes a consequence severity value; A risk level acquisition unit is configured to evaluate a pipe section risk level of the carbon dioxide pipe section to be evaluated according to a set failure possibility and consequence severity grading standard by a preset risk matrix; A pipe section risk value acquisition unit is configured to calculate a risk value according to the failure possibility value and the consequence severity value; the risk value is used to sort the carbon dioxide pipe sections to be evaluated with the same risk level.

10. A carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction device characterized by, It includes: A memory is configured to store a computer program; A processor is configured to call and execute the computer program to realize the steps of the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method according to any one of claims 1-8.

11. A storage medium, characterized by A software program is adapted to be executed by a processor to realize the steps of the carbon dioxide pipeline risk prediction method according to any one of claims 1-8.

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