Prediction method and device for hook load, storage medium and program product

Abstract

The invention discloses a prediction method and device for hook load, a storage medium and a program product, and belongs to the technical field of well drilling and completion. The prediction method comprises the following steps: acquiring a plurality of historical casing tripping-in parameters corresponding to each operation well depth of a historical operation well in the historical tripping-in operation process of a casing, and a historical actual hook load; based on a preset correlation algorithm, determining the correlation between the historical casing tripping-in parameter and the historical actual hook load to obtain a historical correlation degree value; according to the historical correlation degree value, screening the historical casing pipe tripping-in parameters to obtain target casing pipe tripping-in parameters; obtaining current target casing pipe tripping-in parameters corresponding to the depths of all the operation wells; and on the basis of a pre-trained hook load prediction model, according to the current target casing tripping-in parameters corresponding to the depths of the operating wells, determining predicted hook loads corresponding to the depths of the operating wells in the future casing tripping-in operation process. The method is used for improving the prediction accuracy of the hook load.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of drilling and completion technology, and more specifically to a method, apparatus, storage medium, and program product for predicting hook loads. Background Technology

[0002] With the increasing intensity of oil and gas resource exploration, various complex well structures (such as extended reach wells and horizontal wells) are being widely used. However, due to the irregular variations in the wellbore trajectory and diameter of complex well structures, obstructions or failures to reach the intended well depth may occur during the casing installation process, leading to premature cementing. To avoid these situations, it is crucial to predict the hook load during casing installation in advance, as hook load is a key indicator of casing installation capability.

[0003] Currently, the prediction of hook load is based on a friction torque model under certain assumptions. However, these assumptions typically involve simplified assumptions about wellbore trajectory, wellbore diameter, tubing string structural parameters, and mechanical properties. Simplified assumptions about wellbore trajectory and wellbore diameter are insufficient to quantify the actual conditions of wells with complex structures, and simplified assumptions about tubing string structural parameters are also insufficient to quantify the actual conditions of the casing structure. Furthermore, combining simplified assumptions about mechanical properties with the other aforementioned assumptions makes it difficult to accurately predict the hook load during casing installation, resulting in low prediction accuracy for hook load in existing technologies. Therefore, existing technologies suffer from low accuracy in predicting hook load. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of this application is to provide a method, apparatus, storage medium, and program product for predicting hook loads, in order to solve the problem of low prediction accuracy of hook loads in the prior art.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the first aspect of this application provides a method for predicting the load on a large hook, the method comprising: Acquire multiple historical casing running parameters corresponding to each well depth during the historical casing running operation of historical working wells, and the historical actual hook load of the casing running equipment corresponding to each working well depth. Based on a preset correlation algorithm, the correlation between the historical casing insertion parameters at each working well depth and the corresponding historical actual hook load is determined to obtain the historical correlation degree value. Based on the historical correlation value, the historical casing insertion parameters are filtered to obtain the target casing insertion parameters; Obtain the current target casing running parameters corresponding to each working depth of the target working well; Based on the pre-trained hook load prediction model, the predicted hook load of the target casing installation equipment corresponding to each working well depth is determined according to the current target casing installation parameters corresponding to each working well depth during future casing installation operations. The hook load prediction model is used to characterize the relationship between the target casing installation parameters and the actual hook load.

[0006] In this embodiment of the application, the historical cannula insertion parameters are filtered according to the historical correlation degree value to obtain the target cannula insertion parameters, including: removing the historical cannula insertion parameters corresponding to the target historical correlation degree value, wherein the target historical correlation degree value is the historical correlation degree value that is less than or equal to the preset correlation degree threshold among the historical correlation degree values.

[0007] In this embodiment, the historical casing running parameters include the historical casing bottom deflection and the historical casing bottom rotation angle. Obtaining the historical casing bottom deflection and historical casing bottom rotation angle includes: obtaining the casing rotation angle at the first centralizer at the casing bottom at each working well depth and the historical wellbore clearance at each working well depth; determining the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth based on the casing rotation angle at each working well depth; determining the historical casing bottom deflection at each working well depth based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth and the corresponding historical wellbore clearance at each working well depth; and determining the historical casing bottom rotation angle at each working well depth based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth, the corresponding historical wellbore clearance at each working well depth, and the corresponding casing rotation angle at each working well depth.

[0008] In this embodiment of the application, the historical casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is determined based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth and the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth. This includes: when the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is less than the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, the initial casing bottom deflection is taken as the historical casing bottom deflection at the corresponding working well depth; when the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is greater than or equal to the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, the historical wellbore clearance is taken as the historical casing bottom deflection at the corresponding working well depth.

[0009] In this embodiment, the historical casing bottom angle at each working well depth is determined based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth, the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, and the casing rotation angle at the corresponding working well depth. This includes: when the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is less than the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, the historical casing bottom angle at the corresponding working well depth is determined based on a preset first casing bottom angle algorithm and the casing rotation angle at the corresponding working well depth; when the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is greater than or equal to the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, the historical casing bottom angle at the corresponding working well depth is determined based on a preset second casing bottom angle algorithm.

[0010] In this embodiment of the application, the algorithm for the bottom angle of the first sleeve is preset to satisfy the following formula:

[0011] in, The historical casing bottom corner, The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. The casing angle at the first stabilizer at the bottom end of the casing; The algorithm for the bottom corner angle of the second set of pipes is preset to satisfy the following formula:

[0012] in, The historical casing bottom corner, The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. , as well as These are the stability coefficients of the sleeve under longitudinal and transverse bending beams, respectively. Deformation amplification factor under action, The bending moment at the bottom end of the casing is denoted as . The bending moment is located at the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. This refers to the radial displacement of the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. This refers to the radial displacement of the bottom end of the casing.

[0013] In this embodiment of the application, determining the initial casing bottom deflection based on the casing rotation angle includes:

[0014] in, This represents the initial casing bottom deflection. The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. The casing angle is located at the first stabilizer at the bottom end of the casing.

[0015] A second aspect of this application provides an apparatus for predicting hook loads, comprising: a memory configured to store instructions; and a processor configured to retrieve instructions from the memory and, when executing the instructions, to implement the above-described method for predicting hook loads.

[0016] A third aspect of this application provides a machine-readable storage medium storing instructions for causing a machine to execute the above-described method for predicting hook loads.

[0017] A fourth aspect of this application provides a computer program product, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the above-described method for predicting hook loads.

[0018] The above technical solution obtains historical casing installation parameters at each well depth during historical casing installation operations, and historical actual hook loads of the casing installation equipment at each well depth. Based on a preset correlation algorithm, it filters out target casing installation parameters from the historical casing installation parameters. Further, it obtains the current target casing installation parameters at each well depth of the target well, and based on a pre-trained hook load prediction model, determines the predicted hook load of the target casing installation equipment at each well depth during future casing installation operations, according to the current target casing installation parameters at each well depth. The hook load prediction model characterizes the relationship between the target casing installation parameters at each well depth and the actual hook load at the corresponding well depth. Thus, compared to existing technologies that predict hook load under certain assumptions, this method, by actually obtaining historical casing installation parameters and filtering out target casing installation parameters from those parameters, can use a pre-trained hook load prediction model to obtain the predicted hook load for the target casing installation equipment at each well depth during future casing installation operations, based on the current target casing installation parameters corresponding to each working well depth. This allows for accurate prediction of hook load during future casing installation operations before the actual installation begins.

[0019] Other features and advantages of the embodiments of this application will be described in detail in the following detailed description section. Attached Figure Description

[0020] The accompanying drawings are provided to further illustrate the embodiments of this application and form part of the specification. They are used together with the following detailed description to explain the embodiments of this application, but do not constitute a limitation on the embodiments of this application. In the drawings: Figure 1 The illustration schematically shows a flowchart of a method for predicting the load of a large hook according to an embodiment of this application; Figure 2 This illustration schematically shows a comparison of historical actual hook loads and historical predicted hook loads in the test set according to embodiments of this application; Figure 3 A schematic diagram illustrating the data comparison between the actual hook load and the predicted hook load according to an embodiment of this application is shown. Detailed Implementation

[0021] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of this application clearer, the technical solutions of the embodiments of this application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only for illustration and explanation of the embodiments of this application and are not intended to limit the embodiments of this application. All other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of this application without creative effort are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0022] It should be noted that the acquisition, transmission, storage, use, and processing of data in the technical solution of this application all comply with relevant laws and regulations. In the embodiments of this application, certain existing industry solutions such as software, components, and models may be mentioned. These should be considered exemplary, intended only to illustrate the feasibility of implementing the technical solution of this application, and do not imply that the applicant has already used or necessarily used such solutions.

[0023] It should be noted that if the embodiments of this application involve directional indicators (such as up, down, left, right, front, back, etc.), the directional indicators are only used to explain the relative positional relationship and movement of each component in a certain specific posture (as shown in the figure). If the specific posture changes, the directional indicators will also change accordingly.

[0024] Furthermore, if the embodiments of this application involve descriptions such as "first" or "second," these descriptions are for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying their relative importance or implicitly specifying the number of technical features indicated. Therefore, features defined with "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one of those features. Additionally, the technical solutions of various embodiments can be combined with each other, but this must be based on the ability of those skilled in the art to implement them. If the combination of technical solutions is contradictory or impossible to implement, it should be considered that such a combination of technical solutions does not exist and is not within the scope of protection claimed in this application.

[0025] Figure 1 The illustration schematically shows a flowchart of a method for predicting hook loads according to an embodiment of this application. Figure 1 As shown, this application provides a method for predicting the load of a large hook. Taking the application of this prediction method to a processor as an example, the prediction method may include the following steps: Step S101: Obtain multiple historical casing running parameters corresponding to each well depth during the historical casing running operation of the historical working well, and the historical actual hook load of the casing running equipment corresponding to each working well depth.

[0026] Step S102: Based on a preset correlation algorithm, determine the correlation between the historical casing insertion parameters at each working well depth and the corresponding historical actual hook load, so as to obtain the historical correlation degree value.

[0027] Step S103: Based on the historical correlation value, filter the historical casing insertion parameters to obtain the target casing insertion parameters.

[0028] Step S104: Obtain the current target casing running parameters corresponding to the depth of each working well in the target working well.

[0029] Step S105: Based on the pre-trained hook load prediction model, determine the predicted hook load of the target casing installation equipment corresponding to each working well depth during future casing installation operations, according to the current target casing installation parameters corresponding to each working well depth. The hook load prediction model is used to characterize the relationship between the target casing installation parameters and the actual hook load.

[0030] It can be understood that historical operating wells are oil and gas wells where casing has already been installed. Casing is the steel tubing installed in the wellbore of a historical operating well; it helps maintain wellbore stability and ensures smooth subsequent drilling operations. The historical installation process refers to the completed casing installation process in a historical operating well. The operating well depth is the depth of the casing bottom within the historical operating well during the historical installation process. Historical casing installation parameters are parameters related to the historical casing installation process. Casing installation equipment refers to the equipment used to complete the historical casing installation, such as traveling blocks and overhead cranes. Historical actual hook load is the actual force value of the hook collected during the historical casing installation process. Preset correlation algorithms are pre-set correlation algorithms, such as distance covariance matrix correlation algorithms and Pearson correlation coefficient algorithms. The historical correlation degree is a quantitative indicator of the correlation between the historical casing installation parameters at each operating well depth and the corresponding historical actual hook load at the same operating well depth. The target casing running parameters are the casing running parameters related to the actual hook load in the historical casing running parameters. The target working well is the oil and gas well for which casing running operations are currently required. The current target casing running parameters are the target casing running parameters corresponding to the depths of each working well within the target working well at the current time. The pre-trained hook load prediction model is a pre-trained hook load prediction model used to characterize the relationship between the target casing running parameters and the actual hook load. The future casing running operation process is the casing running operation process to be carried out at a future time. The predicted hook load is the predicted hook load value output by the hook load prediction model.

[0031] Specifically, the processor can acquire historical casing installation parameters corresponding to each well depth during historical casing installation operations, and historical actual hook loads of the casing installation equipment at each well depth, based on parameter acquisition devices such as sensors or parameter measurement devices. That is, each well depth corresponds to one historical actual hook load, and each well depth corresponds to multiple historical casing installation parameters. There is an inherent relationship between the historical actual hook load corresponding to each well depth and the corresponding multiple historical casing installation parameters. Based on this, the processor can determine the correlation between each historical casing installation parameter at each well depth and the corresponding historical actual hook load using a preset correlation algorithm, thus obtaining the historical correlation degree value between each historical casing installation parameter and the corresponding historical actual hook load at each well depth. Therefore, the processor can also filter multiple historical casing installation parameters based on the historical correlation degree value to obtain target casing installation parameters related to the historical actual hook load. Furthermore, the processor can also pre-acquire the current target casing running parameters corresponding to each working well depth of the target working well based on parameter acquisition devices such as sensors or parameter measurement devices. The current target casing running parameters corresponding to each working well depth are input into the pre-trained hook load prediction model. Before the casing running operation, the hook load prediction model can output the predicted hook load corresponding to each working well depth of the target working well for the target casing running equipment during the future casing running operation. Thus, based on the predicted hook load, the target casing running equipment can prevent casing jamming during the casing running operation, thereby ensuring the wellbore safety of the target working well.

[0032] In this embodiment of the application, the historical cannula insertion parameters are filtered according to the historical correlation degree value to obtain the target cannula insertion parameters, including: removing the historical cannula insertion parameters corresponding to the target historical correlation degree value, wherein the target historical correlation degree value is the historical correlation degree value that is less than or equal to the preset correlation degree threshold among the historical correlation degree values.

[0033] It is understandable that the preset relevance threshold is a pre-set relevance threshold, such as 0.5.

[0034] Specifically, the processor can pre-determine the relationship between the historical correlation value and a preset correlation threshold. If the historical correlation value is greater than the preset threshold, it indicates a high correlation between the historical casing insertion parameters and the historical actual hook load. The processor should retain the historical casing insertion parameters corresponding to the historical correlation value to accurately uncover the intrinsic relationship between these parameters and the historical actual hook load. Conversely, if the historical correlation value is less than or equal to the preset threshold, it indicates a low correlation between the historical casing insertion parameters and the historical actual hook load. In this case, the processor should remove the historical casing insertion parameters corresponding to the historical correlation value to reduce the complex calculation of redundant data.

[0035] In this embodiment, the historical casing running parameters include the historical casing bottom deflection and the historical casing bottom rotation angle. Obtaining the historical casing bottom deflection and historical casing bottom rotation angle can include: obtaining the casing rotation angle at the first centralizer at the casing bottom of the casing at each working well depth and the historical wellbore clearance at each working well depth; determining the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth based on the casing rotation angle at each working well depth; determining the historical casing bottom deflection at each working well depth based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth and the corresponding historical wellbore clearance at each working well depth; and determining the historical casing bottom rotation angle at each working well depth based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth, the corresponding historical wellbore clearance at each working well depth, and the corresponding casing rotation angle at each working well depth.

[0036] It is understood that historical casing running parameters may include, but are not limited to, historical casing bottom deflection and historical casing bottom rotation angle. Historical casing bottom deflection is the bending offset of the casing relative to the wellbore center at different working well depths during historical running operations. Historical casing bottom rotation angle is the angular deflection of the casing bottom relative to the wellbore axis during historical running operations. Casing rotation angle is the angular deflection generated at the first centralizer on the casing bottom at different working well depths during historical running operations. Historical wellbore clearance is the difference between the wellbore diameter and the casing outer diameter at different working well depths in historical running operations, i.e., the width of the annular space through which the casing can move. Initial casing bottom deflection is the initial value corresponding to the bending offset of the casing bottom determined by the casing's own mechanical properties and the position of the centralizer.

[0037] Specifically, the processor can pre-obtain the casing angle at the first centralizer at the bottom of the casing at each working well depth based on a casing angle algorithm. Since this casing angle algorithm is a commonly used method for calculating casing angles, it will not be elaborated here. The processor can pre-obtain the historical wellbore clearance at each working well depth based on a distance sensor. Based on this, the processor can pre-assume that the bottom of the casing is not in contact with the wellbore. In this case, the processor can determine the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth based on the casing angle at each working well depth. The processor can also determine the historical casing bottom deflection at each working well depth based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth and the corresponding historical wellbore clearance at each working well depth. Furthermore, the processor can also determine the historical casing bottom angle at each working well depth based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth, the corresponding historical wellbore clearance at each working well depth, and the corresponding casing angle at each working well depth.

[0038] The above technical solution can accurately obtain the historical casing bottom deflection and historical casing bottom rotation angle, ensuring the reliability of obtaining historical casing lowering parameters and providing a solid data foundation for predicting hook load.

[0039] In this embodiment of the application, determining the historical casing bottom deflection at each working well depth based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth and the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth may include: if the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is less than the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, the initial casing bottom deflection is taken as the historical casing bottom deflection at the corresponding working well depth; if the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is greater than or equal to the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, the historical wellbore clearance is taken as the historical casing bottom deflection at the corresponding working well depth.

[0040] Specifically, assuming the casing bottom does not contact the wellbore, the processor can determine the magnitude of the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth and the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth. If the initial casing bottom deflection at the current working well depth is less than the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, it indicates that the casing bottom is not in contact with the wellbore and will not be affected by the wellbore's load on the hook, meaning the initial assumption is valid. The processor can then determine the initial casing bottom deflection at the current working well depth as the historical casing bottom deflection at the current working well depth. Conversely, if the initial casing bottom deflection at the current working well depth is greater than or equal to the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, it indicates that the casing bottom is in contact with the wellbore and will be affected by the wellbore's load on the hook, meaning the initial assumption is invalid. Due to the actual wellbore constraints, the absolute value of the casing bottom deflection cannot exceed the wellbore clearance. A positive deflection indicates the casing bottom is upturned, and a negative deflection indicates the casing bottom is downturned. Therefore, the processor should correct the initial casing bottom deflection and adjust it to the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, with the same sign as the initial casing bottom deflection.

[0041] The above technical solution, by comparing the initial casing bottom deflection with the historical wellbore clearance, can determine whether the casing bottom is in contact with the wellbore, distinguishing between two working conditions: free bending and bending constrained by the wellbore. The historical casing bottom deflection obtained by the above technical solution more closely reflects the actual downhole conditions, avoiding deviations between ideal assumptions and real working conditions, and providing more accurate input parameters for subsequent prediction of hook loads.

[0042] In this embodiment, determining the historical casing bottom angle at each working well depth based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth, the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, and the casing rotation angle at the corresponding working well depth can include: when the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is less than the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, determining the historical casing bottom angle at the corresponding working well depth based on a preset first casing bottom angle algorithm; when the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is greater than or equal to the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, determining the historical casing bottom angle at the corresponding working well depth based on a preset second casing bottom angle algorithm.

[0043] It is understood that the preset first casing bottom angle algorithm is a pre-set casing bottom angle algorithm. The preset second casing bottom angle algorithm is a different pre-set casing bottom angle algorithm from the preset first casing bottom angle algorithm.

[0044] Specifically, when the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is less than the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth (i.e., the casing bottom is not in contact with the well wall), the processor does not need to consider the influence of the well wall on the casing bottom angle. In this case, the processor can determine the historical casing bottom angle at the corresponding working well depth based on the casing angle at the corresponding working well depth, using a preset first casing bottom angle algorithm. Alternatively, when the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is greater than or equal to the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth (i.e., the casing bottom is in contact with the well wall), the processor can consider the influence of the well wall on the casing bottom angle and determine the historical casing bottom angle at the corresponding working well depth based on a preset second casing bottom angle algorithm. By comparing the initial casing bottom deflection with the historical wellbore clearance, the processor automatically distinguishes between non-contact and contact well wall conditions at the casing bottom and calls the preset first and second casing bottom angle algorithms corresponding to the two conditions. This allows the acquisition of historical casing bottom angles to closely match actual casing operating conditions, thereby improving the authenticity and reliability of historical casing bottom angles.

[0045] In this embodiment of the application, the algorithm for the pre-set bottom corner angle of the first sleeve can satisfy the following formula:

[0046] in, The historical casing bottom corner, The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. The casing angle at the first stabilizer at the bottom end of the casing; The preset algorithm for the bottom corner angle of the second set of pipes can satisfy the following formula:

[0047] in, The historical casing bottom corner, The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. , as well as These are the stability coefficients of the sleeve under longitudinal and transverse bending beams, respectively. Deformation amplification factor under action, The bending moment at the bottom end of the casing is denoted as . The bending moment is located at the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. This refers to the radial displacement of the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. This refers to the radial displacement of the bottom end of the casing.

[0048] Specifically, the processor can pre-determine the buoyancy of the sleeve per unit length. Inclination angle of historical operating wells The distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing And the casing angle at the first centralizer at the bottom end of the casing. Based on the above parameters, the processor can determine the historical casing bottom angle experienced by the casing under non-contact wellbore conditions, that is, determine the historical casing bottom angle at each working well depth. Therefore, the algorithm for the pre-set bottom corner angle of the first set of pipes can be obtained by satisfying the following formula:

[0049] in, The historical casing bottom corner, The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. The casing angle is located at the first stabilizer at the bottom end of the casing.

[0050] Similarly, the processor can pre-determine the stability coefficient of the sleeve under longitudinal and transverse bending beams. Deformation amplification factor under action , as well as The bending moment at the bottom of the casing. The bending moment at the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. The radial displacement of the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. and the radial displacement of the bottom end of the casing. Based on this, the processor can determine the historical casing bottom angle at different working well depths using a preset second casing bottom angle algorithm and the above parameters. .in, , as well as The calculation method is a commonly used method, and will not be elaborated here. Therefore, the algorithm for the bottom angle of the second set of pipes can satisfy the following formula:

[0051] in, The historical casing bottom corner, The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. , as well as These are the stability coefficients of the sleeve under longitudinal and transverse bending beams, respectively. Deformation amplification factor under action, The bending moment at the bottom end of the casing is denoted as . The bending moment is located at the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. This refers to the radial displacement of the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. This refers to the radial displacement of the bottom end of the casing.

[0052] In this embodiment of the application, determining the initial casing bottom deflection based on the casing rotation angle may include:

[0053] in, This represents the initial casing bottom deflection. The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. The casing angle is located at the first stabilizer at the bottom end of the casing.

[0054] Specifically, the processor can pre-determine the buoyancy of the sleeve per unit length. Inclination angle of historical operating wells The distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing And the casing angle at the first centralizer at the bottom end of the casing. Based on the above parameters, the processor can determine the historical casing bottom deflection experienced by the casing under conditions where it does not contact the wellbore. Therefore, the historical deflection at the bottom of the casing can be obtained. Satisfy the following formula:

[0055] in, This represents the initial casing bottom deflection. The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. The casing angle is located at the first stabilizer at the bottom end of the casing.

[0056] A specific embodiment of this application provides a method for predicting the load on a large hook, the method including: Obtain the historical casing running parameters and the historical actual hook load at each operating well depth for each historical operating well. The historical casing running parameters may include the first historical casing running parameters obtained by direct measurement and the second historical casing running parameters obtained by indirect measurement based on the mechanism model. The first historical casing running parameters may include, but are not limited to, engineering logging data, well logging data, wellbore structure parameters and casing structure parameters. The engineering logging parameters may include, but are not limited to, the measured hook load (historical actual hook load), rotation speed, running speed and drilling fluid density at different operating well depths (well depths), as shown in Table 1 below.

[0057] Table 1: Partial List of Engineering Logging Parameters

[0058] Logging parameters may include, but are not limited to, wellbore diameter, inclination angle, azimuth angle, wellbore curvature, and vertical depth at different working well depths (well depths), as shown in Table 2 below.

[0059] Table 2: Partial Well Logging Parameter Table

[0060] Wellbore structural parameters may include, but are not limited to, the upper casing insertion depth, casing inner diameter, and drill bit size at each working well depth, as shown in Table 3 below.

[0061] Table 3: Partial Wellbore Structure Parameters

[0062] The casing structure parameters may include, but are not limited to, the inner diameter, outer diameter, weight per unit length of casing, distance from the first centralizer at the bottom of the casing, centralizer spacing, and centralizer outer diameter at each working well depth, as shown in Table 4 below.

[0063] Table 4: Partial Parameter Table of Sleeve Structure

[0064] The second historical casing running parameters may include, but are not limited to, the cumulative wellbore curvature at each operating well depth, the theoretical hook load, the casing-wellbore compatibility, the casing bottom deflection, and the casing bottom rotation angle. The cumulative wellbore curvature at each operating well depth can be obtained based on the following formula:

[0065] in, This represents the cumulative wellbore curvature at each operating well depth. For the first Wellbore curvature at each working well depth This refers to the number of wellbore curvatures at each operating well depth.

[0066] The theoretical hook load can be determined based on the following friction torque formula for flexible rods:

[0067] in, The axial force at the upper end of the casing unit is N. The axial force at the lower end of the casing unit is N. The buoyancy of the sleeve per unit length, The average well inclination angle of the casing unit, in rad. The coefficient of friction is dimensionless. The contact force between the casing and the wellbore, in N / m. The total angular variation of the bushing unit is expressed in rad. , where is the length of the sleeve unit, in meters (m).

[0068] Furthermore, the boundary conditions of the formula can include:

[0069] in, This indicates the frictional torque at the bottom of the casing at different working well depths. This represents the bottom of the casing. It should be noted that the frictional torque at the bottom of the casing is zero at any depth. Therefore, based on the aforementioned frictional torque formula and the boundary conditions at the bottom of the casing, the processor can determine the theoretical maximum hook load when the casing is run to any depth throughout the entire well section.

[0070] Casing-wellbore compatibility can be described by the following formula:

[0071] in, The wellbore curvature through which the casing can pass, i.e., casing-wellbore compatibility, in rad / m; The spacing between the stabilizers is in meters (m). Where is the outer diameter of the casing, in meters (m); The outer diameter of the centralizer is in meters (m). The maximum deflection of the casing section is in meters (m). This refers to the diameter of the wellbore.

[0072] Maximum deflection of casing section It can be calculated using the following formula:

[0073] in, The bending stiffness of the casing is given by N·m. 2 ; The buoyancy of the sleeve per unit length; The spacing between the stabilizers is in meters (m). The well inclination angle; For longitudinal and transverse bending beam stability coefficients; The axial force on the casing, in N; The first one above the bottom end of the casing Bending moment at the centralizer The first one above the bottom end of the casing Bending moment at the stabilizer; Let be the radius of curvature of the wellbore.

[0074] The stability coefficients of the longitudinal and transverse bending beams can be determined by the following formula:

[0075] in, The bending stiffness of the casing is given by N·m. 2 , The axial force on the casing, in N; The spacing between the stabilizers is in meters (m). This represents the stability coefficient of the longitudinal and transverse bending beam.

[0076] The processor can pre-assuming that the bottom of the casing is not in contact with the well wall. Based on the cantilever beam formula and beam-column model, the deflection at the bottom of the casing (historical casing bottom deflection) can be calculated using the following formula: The processor can pre-calculate the buoyancy of the casing per unit length. Inclination angle of historical operating wells The distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing And the casing angle at the first centralizer at the bottom end of the casing. Based on the above parameters, the processor can determine the historical casing bottom deflection experienced by the casing under conditions where it does not contact the wellbore. Therefore, the historical deflection at the bottom of the casing can be obtained. Satisfy the following formula:

[0077] in, This represents the initial casing bottom deflection. The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. The casing angle is located at the first stabilizer at the bottom end of the casing.

[0078] Among them, the casing angle at the first stabilizer at the bottom end of the casing. Determined by the following formula:

[0079] in, The casing angle at the first stabilizer on the bottom end of the casing. The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. The spacing between the stabilizers is in meters (m). The bending moment is located at the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. The bending moment is located at the second centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. , as well as The stability coefficient of the sleeve in longitudinal and transverse bending beams Deformation amplification factor under action.

[0080] The bending moment at the centralizer on the casing can be calculated using the three-moment equations of the longitudinal and transverse bending beam model, with the general formula as follows:

[0081] in, , , The first one above the bottom end of the casing 、 、 Bending moment at the centralizer , For the first 、 Weight across the bushing, N / m , For the first 、 Length of the sleeve, in meters. , For the first 、 Moment of inertia across the bushing, m 4 , , For the first 、 The stability coefficient across the bushing is dimensionless. , as well as The first Deformation amplification factor under the influence of the stability coefficient across the bushing.

[0082] The stability coefficient of the i-th span of the bushing can be obtained by the following formula:

[0083] in, For the first The stability coefficient across the bushing is dimensionless. For the first Length of the sleeve, in meters. For the first Axial force across the sleeve, N, For the first Moment of inertia across the bushing, m 4 , E Let be the elastic modulus of the sleeve, in Pa.

[0084] Among them, the stability coefficient of the sleeve in longitudinal and transverse bending beams Deformation amplification factor under action , as well as Determined by the following formula:

[0085] in, , as well as The stability coefficient of the sleeve in longitudinal and transverse bending beams Deformation amplification factor under action, This represents the stability coefficient of the longitudinal and transverse bending beam.

[0086] If the absolute value of the casing bottom deflection is greater than or equal to the wellbore clearance, it indicates that the casing bottom is in contact with the wellbore. If the absolute value of the casing bottom deflection is less than the wellbore clearance, it indicates that the casing bottom is not in contact with the wellbore. In practice, the absolute value of the casing bottom deflection should not exceed the wellbore clearance. If the absolute value of the casing bottom deflection is greater than or equal to the wellbore clearance, the casing bottom deflection should be corrected to a value equal to the wellbore clearance, maintaining the same sign as the original calculation. A positive deflection indicates that the casing bottom is upturned, and a negative deflection indicates that the casing bottom is downturned.

[0087] Based on this, if the absolute value of the casing bottom deflection is less than the wellbore clearance, it indicates that the casing bottom is not in contact with the wellbore. The processor can then determine the casing bottom angle (historical casing bottom angle) based on a preset first casing bottom angle algorithm.

[0088] in, The historical casing bottom corner, The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. The casing angle is located at the first stabilizer at the bottom end of the casing.

[0089] If the absolute value of the casing bottom deflection is greater than or equal to the wellbore clearance, it indicates that the casing bottom is in contact with the wellbore. The processor can then determine the casing bottom angle (historical casing bottom angle) based on a preset second casing bottom angle algorithm.

[0090] in, The historical casing bottom corner, The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, This is the distance from the bottom of the casing to the first centralizer. The bending stiffness of the casing is given by the casing. , as well as These are the stability coefficients of the sleeve under longitudinal and transverse bending beams, respectively. Deformation amplification factor under action, The bending moment at the bottom end of the casing is denoted as . The bending moment is located at the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. This refers to the radial displacement of the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. This refers to the radial displacement of the bottom end of the casing.

[0091] If the bottom of the casing contacts the well wall, the longitudinal and transverse bending beam stability coefficients in the second casing bottom angle algorithm are preset. It is calculated by the following formula:

[0092] in, The bending stiffness of the casing is given by N·m. 2 , The axial force on the casing, in N; The distance from the bottom of the casing to the first stabilizer is in meters (m). This represents the stability coefficient of the longitudinal and transverse bending beam.

[0093] Among them, the radial displacement of the bottom end of the casing. Radial displacement of the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing It can be calculated using the following formula:

[0094] in, Where is the outer diameter of the casing, in meters (m); The outer diameter of the centralizer is in meters (m). This refers to the diameter of the wellbore.

[0095] Based on this, the processor can obtain the second historical casing insertion parameters at multiple working well depths, as shown in Table 5 below.

[0096] Table 5: Parameters for the Second Historical Casing Installation (Partial)

[0097] Based on this, the processor can perform data preprocessing on the historical casing running parameters and the historical actual hook load at each working well depth. This data preprocessing method can include the interquartile range method. The processor can use the interquartile range method to remove outliers in the historical casing running parameters and historical actual hook load. Since the interquartile range method is a conventional data preprocessing method, it will not be elaborated here.

[0098] The correlation between the preprocessed historical casing installation parameters corresponding to each working well depth and the corresponding historical actual hook load at that working well depth is calculated. Specifically, the processor can use a distance correlation coefficient algorithm to determine the correlation between each historical casing installation parameter corresponding to each working well depth and the corresponding historical actual hook load. That is, the correlation between each historical casing installation parameter and the hook load is identified using the distance correlation coefficient. Key features are screened according to a preset correlation threshold (e.g., 0.5), and historical casing installation parameters with low correlation or high redundancy are removed to obtain the target casing installation parameters. In addition, when using the distance correlation coefficient to screen historical casing installation parameters, in addition to considering statistical correlation, prior knowledge of field control experience and mechanical models can also be combined to select some historical casing installation parameters with low correlation coefficients but with engineering significance and theoretical basis for the hook load as target casing installation parameters.

[0099] The processor can also use the target sleeve insertion parameters and the corresponding hook load as a dataset, and randomly sample this dataset into training and test sets at an 8:2 ratio. Using K-fold cross-validation, the hyperparameters in the hook load prediction model are optimized to obtain the optimal hyperparameters. The hook load prediction model is then retrained based on the optimal hyperparameter combination to obtain a trained hook load prediction model. This hook load prediction model can be a random forest regression model, which consists of several decision trees. Its main hyperparameters include: the number of trees (n_estimators), the maximum tree depth (max_depth), the minimum number of samples for internal node splits (min_samples_split), and the minimum number of samples for leaf nodes (min_samples_leaf). The K-fold cross-validation method divides the training set into K subsets. In each iteration, one subset is selected as the validation set, and the remaining subsets are used as the training set, until all subsets have been used as the validation set once. The validation results from each round are averaged to obtain a comprehensive evaluation index for the model, which is then used to complete the selection and optimization of hyperparameters.

[0100] In addition, the processor can also use root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R²) as evaluation metrics to assess whether the training and optimization of the hook load prediction model have met the standards. RMSE measures the magnitude of the deviation between the predicted and actual values. MAE reflects the average level of the prediction error, avoiding excessive influence from extreme values. 2 Used to evaluate the model's ability to explain the variance of the target variable. Lower RMSE and MAE values ​​indicate higher model predictive accuracy. 2The closer the value is to 1, the higher the model fit quality. The calculation methods for root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R²) are all conventional techniques and will not be elaborated here.

[0101] The selection criteria for optimal hyperparameters are as follows: First, minimize the RMSE. If multiple candidate parameter groups have similar RMSE performance, then compare the MAE values ​​and select the option with the smaller error. If there are still ties, compare the R² values ​​and select the option with the higher coefficient of determination. If there are no significant differences in the above indicators, then prioritize configurations with lower model complexity, such as smaller max_depth, larger min_samples_leaf, or smaller n_estimators. Based on this, the processor can obtain the optimal hyperparameter combination as: n_estimators=100, max_depth=10, min_samples_split=5, min_samples_leaf=4. Under this hyperparameter combination, the RMSE in 5-fold cross-validation is 1.68, MAE is 0.36, and R² is 0.99. The random forest regression model is retrained on the training set (excluding the test set) using the optimal hyperparameter combination determined above, resulting in a well-trained hook load prediction model. The processor can also test the hook load prediction model using the test set to determine the comparison between historical actual hook loads and historical predicted hook loads, identifying the error values ​​as RMSE=1.89, MAE=0.55, and R²=0.98. Figure 2 As shown, the predicted curve and the measured curve have a high degree of consistency in their overall trends and change patterns, indicating that the well-trained hook load prediction model has high prediction accuracy and good generalization ability.

[0102] The processor can also acquire the current target casing running parameters corresponding to each working well depth based on parameter acquisition devices such as sensors or parameter measurement devices. The current target casing running parameters corresponding to each working well depth are input into the pre-trained hook load prediction model. Before the casing running operation, the hook load prediction model can output the predicted hook load corresponding to each working well depth of the target casing running equipment during the future casing running operation. Thus, based on the predicted hook load, the target casing running equipment can prevent casing jamming during the casing running operation, thereby ensuring the wellbore safety of the target working well.

[0103] The processor can also determine the actual hook load at each well depth during the casing installation process of the target casing installation equipment corresponding to the target working well, and determine the error values ​​between the two: RMSE=2.29, MAE=0.32, R²=0.93. Figure 3 As shown, the predicted values ​​of the trained hook load prediction model in the target well are in good agreement with the measured values, and the trend of change is consistent. This indicates that the model can effectively achieve high-precision prediction of hook load and meet the needs of field application.

[0104] The technical effect achievable by the embodiments of this application is that the theoretical model of the hook load is combined with the intelligent model, which comprehensively considers the influence of actual complex wellbore parameters, tubing structure and key mechanical parameters. It is of great significance for accurately predicting the hook load before casing is run in, thereby preventing casing jamming and ensuring wellbore safety.

[0105] This application also provides an apparatus for predicting hook loads, comprising: a memory configured to store instructions; and a processor configured to retrieve instructions from the memory and, when executing the instructions, to implement the above-described method for predicting hook loads.

[0106] This application also provides a machine-readable storage medium storing instructions for causing a machine to execute the above-described method for predicting hook loads.

[0107] This application also provides a computer program product, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the above-described method for predicting hook loads.

[0108] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of this application can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, this application can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, this application can take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0109] This application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of this application. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart... Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0110] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0111] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0112] In a typical configuration, a computing device includes one or more processors (CPU), input / output interfaces, network interfaces, and memory.

[0113] Memory may include non-persistent memory in computer-readable media, such as random access memory (RAM) and / or non-volatile memory, such as read-only memory (ROM) or flash RAM. Memory is an example of computer-readable media.

[0114] Computer-readable media includes both permanent and non-permanent, removable and non-removable media that can store information using any method or technology. Information can be computer-readable instructions, data structures, modules of programs, or other data. Examples of computer storage media include, but are not limited to, phase-change memory (PRAM), static random access memory (SRAM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), other types of random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technologies, CD-ROM, digital versatile optical disc (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic tape, disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, or any other non-transferable medium that can be used to store information accessible by a computing device. As defined herein, computer-readable media does not include transient computer-readable media, such as modulated data signals and carrier waves.

[0115] It should also be noted that the terms "comprising," "including," or any other variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements includes not only those elements but also other elements not expressly listed, or elements inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Unless otherwise specified, an element defined by the phrase "comprising one..." does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article, or apparatus that includes that element.

[0116] The above are merely embodiments of this application and are not intended to limit the scope of this application. Various modifications and variations can be made to this application by those skilled in the art. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc., made within the spirit and principles of this application should be included within the scope of the claims of this application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the load on a large hook, characterized in that, The prediction method includes: Acquire multiple historical casing running parameters corresponding to each well depth during the historical casing running operation of the historical operating well, and the historical actual hook load of the casing running equipment corresponding to each operating well depth. Based on a preset correlation algorithm, the correlation between the historical casing running parameters at each working well depth and the corresponding historical actual hook load is determined to obtain the historical correlation degree value. Based on the historical correlation value, the historical casing insertion parameters are filtered to obtain the target casing insertion parameters. Obtain the current target casing running parameters corresponding to each working depth of the target working well; Based on a pre-trained hook load prediction model, the predicted hook load of the target casing installation equipment corresponding to each working well depth is determined according to the current target casing installation parameters corresponding to each working well depth during future casing installation operations. The hook load prediction model is used to characterize the relationship between the target casing installation parameters and the actual hook load.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of filtering the historical casing insertion parameters based on the historical correlation value to obtain the target casing insertion parameters includes: Remove the historical casing input parameters corresponding to the target historical correlation value, wherein the target historical correlation value is a historical correlation value that is less than or equal to a preset correlation threshold among the historical correlation values.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The historical casing insertion parameters include the historical casing bottom deflection and the historical casing bottom rotation angle. The acquisition of the historical casing bottom deflection and the historical casing bottom rotation angle includes: Obtain the casing rotation angle at the first centralizer at the bottom end of the casing at each working well depth and the historical wellbore clearance of the historical working well at each working well depth; Based on the casing rotation angle at each working well depth, determine the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth; Based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth and the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, the historical casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is determined. Based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth, the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, and the casing rotation angle at the corresponding working well depth, the historical casing bottom rotation angle at each working well depth is determined.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The step of determining the historical casing bottom deflection at each operating well depth based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each operating well depth and the corresponding historical wellbore clearance at each operating well depth includes: If the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is less than the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, the initial casing bottom deflection shall be taken as the historical casing bottom deflection at the corresponding working well depth. If the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is greater than or equal to the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, the historical wellbore clearance shall be taken as the historical casing bottom deflection at the corresponding working well depth.

5. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The step of determining the historical casing bottom angle at each operating well depth based on the initial casing bottom deflection at each operating well depth, the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding operating well depth, and the casing rotation angle at the corresponding operating well depth includes: When the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is less than the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, the historical casing bottom angle at the corresponding working well depth is determined based on the casing angle at the corresponding working well depth, according to the preset first casing bottom angle algorithm. When the initial casing bottom deflection at each working well depth is greater than or equal to the historical wellbore clearance at the corresponding working well depth, the historical casing bottom angle at the corresponding working well depth is determined based on a preset second casing bottom angle algorithm.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that, The algorithm for the bottom angle of the first pre-set tube satisfies the following formula: in, The historical casing bottom angle is described. The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, The distance from the bottom end of the sleeve to the first stabilizer is [missing information]. The bushing stiffness is the bending stiffness of the bushing. The sleeve rotation angle is located at the first stabilizer at the bottom end of the sleeve. The algorithm for the bottom corner rotation of the pre-set second sleeve satisfies the following formula: in, The historical casing bottom angle is described. The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, The distance from the bottom end of the sleeve to the first stabilizer is [missing information]. The bushing stiffness is the bending stiffness of the bushing. , as well as The respective stability coefficients of the sleeve under longitudinal and transverse bending beams are as follows. Deformation amplification factor under action, The bending moment at the bottom end of the casing is [value missing]. The bending moment is located at the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing. The radial displacement of the first centralizer above the bottom end of the casing is given. This refers to the radial displacement of the bottom end of the sleeve.

7. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that, The step of determining the initial casing bottom deflection based on the casing rotation angle includes: in, This refers to the initial deflection of the bottom end of the casing. The buoyancy of the casing per unit length. The well inclination angle, The distance from the bottom end of the sleeve to the first stabilizer is [missing information]. The bushing stiffness is the bending stiffness of the bushing. The sleeve rotation angle is located at the first stabilizer at the bottom end of the sleeve.

8. A device for predicting the load on a large hook, characterized in that, include: The memory is configured to store instructions; as well as The processor is configured to retrieve the instructions from the memory and, when executing the instructions, to implement the method for predicting hook loads according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

9. A machine-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The machine-readable storage medium stores instructions for causing the machine to perform the method for predicting hook loads according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer program product, comprising a computer program, characterized in that, When executed by a processor, the computer program implements the method for predicting the load of a large hook according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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