Method for evaluating load margin of photovoltaic power generation compensating peak

Abstract

The invention provides a method for evaluating the load margin of a photovoltaic power generation compensating peak. The method comprises the steps of predicting the annual maximum load of the next year by use of a straight-line equation weighing and fitting method and predicting the daily maximum load curve of the next year according to the degree of deviation of the daily maximum load curve of the last year, defining a photovoltaic peak clipping rate and obtaining a photovoltaic load cumulative distribution probability curve needing photovoltaic compensation when the daily load reaches the peak load, meanwhile, calculating the cumulative distribution probability curve of photovoltaic power output according to the photovoltaic power output data of a power grid typical day, discretizing the photovoltaic load cumulative distribution probability curve and the cumulative distribution probability curve of photovoltaic power output, and obtaining the probability that the photovoltaic power output is capable of satisfying the photovoltaic load under the circumstance of a certain photovoltaic peak clipping rate by use of a convolution differential calculation method; the defect that a photovoltaic power output-containing load prediction method only provides a certain result is overcome, the case of relatively high photovoltaic permeability is considered, the requirement of uncertain risk analysis of the power market is met, and a feasible new idea is provided with a photovoltaic system-containing power distribution network planning.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for evaluating the compensation peak load margin of photovoltaic power generation, which belongs to the technical field of distribution network planning. Background technique [0002] Load forecasting is the premise and foundation of distribution network planning. Improving the level of load forecasting technology is conducive to formulating a reasonable distribution network construction plan. With a large number of photovoltaic systems connected to the distribution network, the load forecasting work of the distribution network has thus increased a lot of difficulty. In the case of a high penetration rate of the photovoltaic system, it is necessary to predict whether the photovoltaic output can meet the load after subtracting the minimum output of the grid. The prediction results have important guiding significance for reasonable distribution network planning. [0003] Photovoltaic power generation is affected by clim...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The existing load forecasting methods including photovoltaic output all regard photovoltaic output as a "negative load", without considering the probability and uncertainty, and cannot satisfy the situation of high photovoltaic penetration rate. The prediction results and the rationality of the distribution network planning have a certain impact

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