Method and system for constructing climatic change comprehensive evaluation model E3METL

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a system for constructing a climatic change comprehensive evaluation model E3METL. The method comprises the steps that the model CE3METL takes a lambda endogenous economic growth model as a kernel and is completed by coupling an energy system and a simple climatic system, and the specific construction steps are as follows: constructing an input-output relationship of an economic department based on a lambda endogenous economic growth theory; an investment consumption relationship; a traditional Cobb-Douglas production function is improved, and energy serves as independent input to be introduced into an input-output relation; the method comprises the following steps: introducing technical cost, carbon tax, subsidy and other emission reduction policy variables, modifying a classical Logistic technology diffusion curve, considering the resource potential of each technology, and constructing a Logistic curve group to describe the multi-energy technology evolution; and developing a two-factor learning curve based on the'dry middle school 'and the'research middle school', so as to describe the progress of the endogenous technology. The method and the system for constructing the climatic change comprehensive evaluation model E3METL have a wide market prospect.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of comprehensive climate change assessment models, and in particular to a method and system for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL. Background Art

[0002] Climate change is a complex, multidisciplinary scientific issue. Therefore, integrated climate change assessment models, integrating the economy, environment, and energy into a single framework, are essential tools for studying the issue. After nearly half a century of development, integrated climate change models have gradually become a mainstream tool for studying climate change. By connecting the economic and climate systems, they enable the assessment of climate policies and impacts within a comprehensive framework.

[0003] Regarding the research on integrated climate assessment models, the mainstream modeling approaches can be summarized as bottom-up and top-down. Bottom-up models are mainly based on the assessment of climate change mitigation options. Generally speaking, they do not include overly complex macroeconomic structures and focus on specific technologies. Such models are often used to study industry issues, accumulating estimates from various industries. The ultimate results of various policy incentives are mainly achieved through the selection of technical routes. Currently, the more well-known models of this type include the MARKAL model developed by the IEA (Nakicenovic et al., 1998) and the MESSAGE model developed by the IIASA (Messner et al., 1995). Top-down models primarily focus on the interaction between macroeconomics and environmental policies. Starting from economic models, they use energy prices and economic elasticity as key economic variables. These models effectively depict the relationship between the economy, energy, and carbon emissions, and are widely applicable to macroeconomic analysis and research on energy and emission reduction policies. Typical examples of this type of model include CETA (Peck and Teisberg, 1992), DICE (Nordhaus, 1993), RICE (Nordhaus, 1994), and MERGE (Manne and Richels, 1997). Both bottom-up and top-down modeling approaches have their own advantages and disadvantages. For example, the top-down modeling approach offers specific advantages in characterizing technology. By introducing a learning curve, the cost of using a technology decreases with cumulative output or installed capacity, helping to describe the dynamic characteristics of technological improvement and the development of advanced technologies. However, its macroeconomic structure is too simple, ignoring the relationship between the energy sector and other sectors, which is not conducive to examining the impact of technological changes on the entire economic system from a global perspective; the latter depicts the macroeconomy and the interrelationships between sectors in more detail, but lacks specific descriptions of various energy technologies and cannot simulate major technological advances within the energy system.

[0004] Characterizing technological change is a crucial step in model construction. For bottom-up models, earlier literature primarily introduced technological change by exogenously setting the rate of cost reduction of target energy technologies or parameters influencing energy efficiency. In top-down models, technological progress is often captured by the total factor productivity coefficient implicit in the production function, meaning that productivity increases with the sector's own autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI), a rate generally given exogenously. Since the 1990s, many studies have begun to incorporate technological change into models as an endogenous process. Messner (1997) first introduced technological change endogenously into his systems engineering model, MESSAGE, linking the investment cost of energy technology to cumulative installed capacity through a learning curve, indicating that investment cost decreases with increasing cumulative installed capacity. The phenomenon of production costs decreasing exponentially with cumulative production is known as "learning by doing" (LBD). A learning curve that considers only LBD is called a single-factor learning curve (OFLC). In reality, many factors influence technological progress and cost reduction, LBD being just one, and R&D activities being another typical influencing factor. Later research has referred to the process by which R&D influences learning as "learning by searching" (LBS).

[0005] In existing energy system evolution models, the mutual substitution between traditional and new energy technologies is typically characterized by varying the elasticity of substitution (CES) function (Nordhaus, 1999, Popp, 2003, etc.). This approach has the advantage of effectively demonstrating the mutual substitution relationship between energy technologies by setting different substitution elasticity parameters. However, the elasticity parameter is sensitive and has a significant impact on the system, so its setting requires careful consideration. Furthermore, the CES function is often suitable for studying the substitution relationship between a small number of technologies, but is less applicable to the interactive changes of multiple technologies. Therefore, introducing new methods to better describe the substitution between multiple technologies is a work that needs to be explored. Therefore, to address the above issues, a method and system for constructing an integrated climate change assessment model (E3METL) is proposed. Summary of the Invention

[0006] In this embodiment, a method and system for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL are provided to address the problem that in existing energy system evolution models, the mutual substitution between traditional technologies and new energy technologies is generally characterized by setting different elasticities in the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) function (Nordhaus, 1999, Popp, 2003, etc.). The advantage of this method is that it can better demonstrate the mutual substitution relationship between energy technologies by setting different substitution elasticity parameters. However, the elasticity parameter is relatively sensitive and has a greater impact on the system, so its setting requires considerable consideration. In addition, the CES function is often suitable for studying the substitution relationship between a small number of technologies, but its applicability is poor for the interactive changes of multiple technologies.

[0007] According to one aspect of the present application, a method and system for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model (E3METL) are provided. The model CE3METL is based on the Ramsey endogenous economic growth model and is completed by coupling an energy system and a simple climate system. The specific construction steps are as follows:

[0008] (1) Based on Ramsey’s endogenous economic growth theory, the input-output relationship and investment-consumption relationship of economic sectors are constructed;

[0009] (2) Improve the traditional Cobb-Douglas production function and introduce energy as a separate input into the input-output relationship;

[0010] (3) Introducing technology costs, carbon tax, subsidies and other emission reduction policy variables, modifying the classic Logistic technology diffusion curve, and considering the resource potential of each technology, constructing a group of Logistic curves to characterize the evolution of multiple energy technologies;

[0011] (4) Develop a two-factor learning curve based on “learning by doing” and “learning by research” to characterize endogenous technological progress;

[0012] (5) Using multiple logistic technology curves and two-factor learning curves as the core, an energy module is constructed that includes traditional fossil energy and non-fossil energy technologies;

[0013] (6) Construct a fossil energy emission inventory, develop a one-dimensional heat reaction diffusion equation, a radiation-temperature rise interaction model, and construct a simple climate change module to characterize the nonlinear process from emissions to temperature rise;

[0014] (7) Establish a climate impact model and an investment-driven adaptation model based on the Nordhaus loss function, and construct a feedback loss relationship from climate change to the macroeconomy;

[0015] (8) Couple the macroeconomic module, energy technology module, and climate module to construct an integrated energy-economy-environment system evaluation model, namely E3METL;

[0016] (9) Develop a self-module database, estimate core parameters and calibrate key variables;

[0017] (10) Propose nonlinear optimization algorithms to debug and solve models.

[0018] Furthermore, the E3METL model uses a set of logistic curves to describe the mutual substitution and evolution of various energy technologies. In order to study the impact of energy policies such as carbon taxes on technological evolution, economic systems, and carbon emissions, we introduce carbon tax and subsidy variables into the traditional logistic curve.

[0019] Furthermore, the E3METL model divides energy types into more detailed categories, examining seven non-fossil energy technologies, including fossil energy (Fossil), biomass energy (CRW), nuclear energy (NUC), hydropower (HYD), geothermal energy (GEO), solar energy (SOL), wind energy (WIND), and tidal energy (TIDE).

[0020] Furthermore, in the E3METL model, fossil energy technology is selected as the reference technology, and the alternative technologies are various carbon-free energy technologies.

[0021] Furthermore, a system for constructing a method for a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL is provided, wherein the system includes a macroeconomic module, an energy technology module and a carbon emission module, wherein the macroeconomic module, the energy technology module and the carbon emission module are associated through a dynamic input-output relationship.

[0022] Furthermore, the energy module provides energy input for the production of the economic module, and the economy is fed back to the energy module in the form of investment.

[0023] Furthermore, the energy input will generate negative output in the economic module, namely carbon emissions, and the carbon reduction policy will in turn affect economic growth by restricting energy consumption and the results.

[0024] Furthermore, the economic module accumulates capital through investment, and the accumulation of capital is obtained through labor.

[0025] Furthermore, the carbon emissions can be divided into two parts: one is anthropogenic emissions, namely emissions caused by the combustion of fossil fuels, and the other is natural emissions, including all other forms of emissions.

[0026] The benefits of this application are:

[0027] 1. This method and system for constructing the comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL effectively compensates for the "do or forget" effect in the learning curve-based technological progress (LBD) process by introducing the research and development-based technological progress (LBS) process, thereby being more conducive to promoting the advancement of energy technology; introducing a policy effect that can effectively improve the combination of simple carbon taxes and subsidies will not only be more conducive to CO2 emission reduction in the long run, but will also effectively reduce the carbon tax burden on enterprises and curb the use of carbon-based energy, so as to achieve the goal of reducing emissions, more effectively promote technological progress, and accelerate the replacement of gradually decreasing fossil energy to support economic growth, thereby enhancing the potential of alternative energy technologies to promote economic development, and has broad market prospects. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0028] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative labor.

[0029] Figure 1 A method diagram of an embodiment of the present application;

[0030] Figure 2 This is a diagram of the model structure frame of an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0031] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the present invention, the following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts should fall within the scope of protection of this application.

[0032] It should be noted that the terms "first", "second", etc. in the specification and claims of the present application and the above-mentioned drawings are used to distinguish similar objects and are not necessarily used to describe a specific order or sequential order. It should be understood that the data used in this way can be interchanged where appropriate, so that the embodiments of the present application described here. In addition, the terms "including" and "having" and any of their variations are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions. For example, a process, method, system, product or device that includes a series of steps or units is not necessarily limited to those steps or units clearly listed, but may include other steps or units that are not clearly listed or inherent to these processes, methods, products or devices.

[0033] In this application, terms such as "upper," "lower," "left," "right," "front," "back," "top," "bottom," "inner," "outer," "center," "vertical," "horizontal," "transverse," and "longitudinal" indicate positions or locations based on the positions or locations shown in the accompanying drawings. These terms are primarily intended to better describe this application and its embodiments and are not intended to limit the devices, elements, or components indicated to having a specific orientation, or to being constructed or operated in a specific orientation.

[0034] Furthermore, some of the above terms may be used to express other meanings besides indicating a position or location. For example, the term "on" may also be used to indicate a dependency or connection in certain circumstances. Those skilled in the art will understand the specific meanings of these terms in this application based on the specific circumstances.

[0035] Furthermore, the terms "installed," "disposed," "provided with," "connected," "connected," and "socketed" should be interpreted broadly. For example, they can refer to fixed connections, removable connections, or integral structures; mechanical connections or electrical connections; direct connections, indirect connections through an intermediary, or internal communication between two devices, elements, or components. Those skilled in the art will understand the specific meanings of these terms in this application based on the specific circumstances.

[0036] The following is an introduction to the method and system of the model E3METL of the embodiment of the present application.

[0037] See also Figure 1-2 As shown in FIG, a method and system for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL is provided. The model CE3METL is based on the Ramsey endogenous economic growth model and is completed by coupling the energy system and the simple climate system. The specific construction steps are as follows:

[0038] (1) Based on Ramsey’s endogenous economic growth theory, the input-output relationship and investment-consumption relationship of economic sectors are constructed;

[0039] (2) Improve the traditional Cobb-Douglas production function and introduce energy as a separate input into the input-output relationship;

[0040] (3) Introducing technology costs, carbon tax, subsidies and other emission reduction policy variables, modifying the classic Logistic technology diffusion curve, and considering the resource potential of each technology, constructing a group of Logistic curves to characterize the evolution of multiple energy technologies;

[0041] (4) Develop a two-factor learning curve based on “learning by doing” and “learning by research” to characterize endogenous technological progress;

[0042] (5) Using multiple logistic technology curves and two-factor learning curves as the core, an energy module is constructed that includes traditional fossil energy and non-fossil energy technologies;

[0043] (6) Construct a fossil energy emission inventory, develop a one-dimensional heat reaction diffusion equation, a radiation-temperature rise interaction model, and construct a simple climate change module to characterize the nonlinear process from emissions to temperature rise;

[0044] (7) Establish a climate impact model and an investment-driven adaptation model based on the Nordhaus loss function, and construct a feedback loss relationship from climate change to the macroeconomy;

[0045] (8) Couple the macroeconomic module, energy technology module, and climate module to construct an integrated energy-economy-environment system evaluation model, namely E3METL;

[0046] (9) Develop a self-module database, estimate core parameters and calibrate key variables;

[0047] (10) Propose nonlinear optimization algorithms to debug and solve models.

[0048] The E3METL model uses a set of logistic curves to describe the mutual substitution and evolution of various energy technologies. In order to study the impact of energy policies such as carbon taxes on technological evolution, economic systems, and carbon emissions, we introduce carbon tax and subsidy variables into the traditional logistic curve.

[0049] The E3METL model divides energy types into smaller categories and examines seven non-fossil energy technologies, including fossil energy (Fossil), biomass energy (CRW), nuclear energy (NUC), hydropower (HYD), geothermal energy (GEO), solar energy (SOL), wind energy (WIND) and tidal energy (TIDE).

[0050] In the E3METL model, fossil energy technology is selected as the reference technology, and the alternative technologies are various carbon-free energy technologies.

[0051] A system for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL, the system comprising a macroeconomic module, an energy technology module and a carbon emission module, wherein the macroeconomic module, the energy technology module and the carbon emission module are linked through a dynamic input-output relationship.

[0052] The energy module provides energy input for the production of the economic module, and the economy is fed back to the energy module in the form of investment.

[0053] The energy input will also produce negative output in the economic module, namely carbon emissions, and the carbon reduction policy will in turn affect economic growth by restricting energy consumption and results.

[0054] The economic module accumulates capital through investment, and the accumulation of capital is obtained through labor.

[0055] The carbon emissions mentioned can be divided into two parts: one is anthropogenic emissions, that is, emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels, and the other is natural emissions, which include all other forms of emissions.

[0056] The circuits, electronic components and modules involved are all existing technologies and can be fully implemented by those skilled in the art. Needless to say, the content protected by this application does not involve improvements to software and methods.

[0057] The above description is merely a preferred embodiment of the present application and is not intended to limit the present application. Various modifications and variations are possible for those skilled in the art. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, or improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present application shall be included within the scope of protection of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL, characterized by: The model CE3METL is based on the Ramsey endogenous economic growth model and is completed by coupling the energy system and the simple climate system. The specific construction steps are as follows: (1) Based on Ramsey’s endogenous economic growth theory, the input-output relationship and investment-consumption relationship of economic sectors are constructed; (2) Improve the traditional Cobb-Douglas production function and introduce energy as a separate input into the input-output relationship; (3) Introducing technology costs, carbon tax, subsidies and other emission reduction policy variables, modifying the classic Logistic technology diffusion curve, and considering the resource potential of each technology, constructing a group of Logistic curves to characterize the evolution of multiple energy technologies; (4) Develop a two-factor learning curve based on "learning by doing" and "learning by research" to characterize endogenous technological progress; (5) Using multiple logistic technology curves and two-factor learning curves as the core, an energy module is constructed that includes traditional fossil energy and non-fossil energy technologies; (6) Construct a fossil energy emission inventory, develop a one-dimensional heat reaction diffusion equation, a radiation-temperature rise interaction model, and construct a simple climate change module to characterize the nonlinear process from emissions to temperature rise; (7) Establish a climate impact model and an investment-driven adaptation model based on the Nordhaus loss function, and construct a feedback loss relationship from climate change to the macroeconomy; (8) Couple the macroeconomic module, energy technology module, and climate module to construct an integrated energy-economy-environment system evaluation model, namely E3METL; (9) Develop a self-module database, estimate core parameters and calibrate key variables; (10) Propose nonlinear optimization algorithms to debug and solve models.

2. The method for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL according to claim 1, characterized in that: The E3METL model uses a set of logistic curves to describe the mutual substitution and evolution of various energy technologies. In order to study the impact of energy policies such as carbon taxes on technological evolution, economic systems, and carbon emissions, we introduce carbon tax and subsidy variables into the traditional logistic curve.

3. The method for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL according to claim 1, characterized in that: The E3METL model divides energy types into smaller categories and examines seven non-fossil energy technologies, including fossil energy (Fossil), biomass energy (CRW), nuclear energy (NUC), hydropower (HYD), geothermal energy (GEO), solar energy (SOL), wind energy (WIND) and tidal energy (TIDE).

4. The method for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the E3METL model, fossil energy technology is selected as the reference technology, and the alternative technologies are various carbon-free energy technologies.

5. A system for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL according to the method for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that: The system includes a macroeconomic module, an energy technology module and a carbon emission module, and the macroeconomic module, energy technology module and carbon emission module are connected through a dynamic input-output relationship.

6. The system for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL according to claim 1, characterized in that: The energy module provides energy input for the production of the economic module, and the economy is fed back to the energy module in the form of investment.

7. The system for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL according to claim 1, characterized in that: The energy input will also produce negative output in the economic module, namely carbon emissions, and the carbon reduction policy will in turn affect economic growth by restricting energy consumption and results.

8. The system for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL according to claim 1, characterized in that: The economic module accumulates capital through investment, and the accumulation of capital is obtained through labor.

9. The system for constructing a comprehensive climate change assessment model E3METL according to claim 1, characterized in that: The carbon emissions mentioned can be divided into two parts: one is anthropogenic emissions, that is, emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels, and the other is natural emissions, which include all other forms of emissions.

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