A gas turbine capacity planning method for gas-electricity complementary energy system

Abstract

The present invention provides a gas turbine capacity planning method for a gas-electricity complementary energy system, comprising: obtaining electricity load data and a planned service life of a gas turbine in a target planning area; inputting a preset prediction model for cost prediction, and obtaining cost prediction results of multiple gas turbine capacity planning schemes within the planned service life; comparing with preset profit results, when the cost prediction result of any gas turbine capacity planning scheme within the planned service life is less than the profit result, outputting the gas turbine capacity planning scheme as a preferred gas turbine capacity planning scheme; selecting a preferred gas turbine capacity planning scheme with the minimum required cost, and outputting it as a final gas turbine capacity planning. The present invention effectively provides a certain reference for the planning, construction and reasonable configuration of a gas-electricity complementary power generation system; ensures the safe, reliable and economical operation of a gas-electricity complementary comprehensive energy system, and guarantees the accuracy of the investment optimization scheme.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of gas-electricity complementary planning, and in particular to a gas turbine capacity planning method for a gas-electricity complementary energy system. Background Art

[0002] With the development of integrated energy systems, gas-electricity complementary integrated energy systems, which couple and complement the two different energy sources of gas and electricity and achieve efficient utilization, will become one of the mainstream energy forms in the future. The planning of gas-electricity complementary integrated energy systems can be carried out in detail according to the links of energy production, transmission and consumption. The planning of coupling equipment such as natural gas generator sets is the bridge and link between production and consumption. Optimizing planning needs to take into account both economy and reliability. Ensuring the safe, reliable and economical transmission of energy is an important task to achieve comprehensive energy utilization. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to propose a gas turbine capacity planning method for a gas-electricity complementary energy system to ensure the safe, reliable and economical operation of the gas-electricity complementary integrated energy system. The present invention ensures the accuracy of the investment optimization plan.

[0004] In one aspect, a method for gas turbine capacity planning for a gas-electricity complementary energy system is provided, comprising:

[0005] Obtain the electricity load data of the target planning area and the planned service life of the gas turbine;

[0006] Inputting the electricity load data of the target planning area and the planned service life into a preset prediction model for cost prediction, and obtaining cost prediction results of multiple gas turbine capacity planning schemes within the planned service life;

[0007] Comparing the cost prediction results of the plurality of gas turbine capacity planning schemes within the planned service life with the preset benefit results, and when the cost prediction result of any gas turbine capacity planning scheme within the planned service life is less than the benefit result, outputting the gas turbine capacity planning scheme as a preferred gas turbine capacity planning scheme;

[0008] A preferred gas turbine capacity planning scheme with the lowest required cost is selected from the preferred gas turbine capacity planning, and the final gas turbine capacity planning is outputted.

[0009] Preferably, the calculation of the corresponding cost within the planned service life according to the gas turbine capacity planning data by using a preset prediction model includes:

[0010] Under the gas turbine capacity planning data state, the corresponding initial investment cost, annual operating cost, annual maintenance cost, annual carbon emission cost and government subsidy income are calculated by the preset prediction model;

[0011] Outputting the result of deducting the government subsidy income from the sum of the initial investment cost, the annual operating cost, the annual maintenance cost and the annual carbon emission cost as an annual cost forecast result;

[0012] The annual cost forecast result is multiplied by the planned service life to obtain the cost forecast result.

[0013] Preferably, the initial investment cost is calculated by the following formula:

[0014]

[0015] Among them, f in represents the initial investment cost; r represents the annual interest rate of capital; N represents the equipment life; k represents the system equipment type; i represents the equipment serial number; X i represents the rated capacity of the i-th device; a i represents the unit capacity price of the i-th device; b i represents the land cost of the i-th equipment; c i represents the installation cost of the i-th device; D represents other costs.

[0016] Preferably, the annual operating cost is calculated by the following formula:

[0017] f ru =f cs +f ge

[0018]

[0019] Among them, f ru represents the annual operating cost; f cs represents the annual gas cost; f ge represents the annual electricity purchase cost, which is the product of the total operating time, unit power consumption and electricity price; T represents the total operating time, t represents the time sequence number, a represents the gas price, and P(t) represents the gas consumption.

[0020] Preferably, the annual maintenance cost is calculated by the following formula:

[0021] f ma =γf in

[0022] Among them, f ma represents the annual maintenance cost; f inrepresents the initial investment cost; γ is the proportion of system maintenance cost in the initial investment of equipment.

[0023] Preferably, the annual carbon emission cost is calculated by the following formula:

[0024]

[0025] Among them, f ed represents the annual carbon emission cost; T represents the total operation time; t represents the time sequence number; I represents the total number of equipment; i represents the equipment serial number; P i (t) represents the gas consumption of the i-th equipment; represents the unit emission of gas pollutants of the i-th equipment; φ i Represents the unit emission price of pollutants of the i-th equipment.

[0026] Preferably, the preset prediction model is also used to set constraints on the gas turbine when predicting gas turbine capacity planning data, wherein the constraints include one or more of natural gas constraints, generator set constraints, and power transmission constraints.

[0027] Preferably, the natural gas constraint is as shown in the following formula:

[0028] F s，m +F P2G，m +C G，m -F D，m -F GPG，m -F m =0

[0029] Among them, F P2G，m Indicates the natural gas injected into the power-to-gas equipment of the natural gas node; F D，m represents the natural gas load demand of the natural gas node; F GPG，m Indicates the natural gas flow consumed by the natural gas generator at the natural gas node; F m represents the natural gas flow rate injected into the natural gas node; F s，m represents the gas source flow rate at the natural gas node; C G，m represents the natural gas load reduction at the natural gas system node;

[0030] The natural gas pipeline flow is constrained by the following formula:

[0031]

[0032] Among them, C mn A constant representing the natural gas transmission pipeline from m to n; π m , π n Respectively represent the gas pressure values ​​of m and n of the natural gas node; F mnRepresents the natural gas flow from natural gas pipeline m to n.

[0033] Preferably, the generator set constraints include generator set output constraints, generator set capacity constraints and generator set capacity utilization constraints;

[0034] As shown in the following formula:

[0035]

[0036] in, represents the power output of generator k at time t; and They represent the minimum output and the maximum output respectively; k represents the serial number of the generator set;

[0037] The generator set climbing constraint is performed by the following formula:

[0038]

[0039] in, represents the power output of generator set k at time t-1; and They represent the maximum rate of increase and the rate of decrease of the output of the k generator set respectively;

[0040] The capacity constraint of the generator set is shown in the following formula:

[0041] F G，min ≤F G ≤F G，max

[0042] Among them, F G，min and F G，max They respectively represent the lower limit of the natural gas flow consumed by the natural gas generator of the natural gas node and the upper limit of the natural gas flow consumed by the natural gas generator;

[0043] The generator set capacity utilization constraint is shown in the following formula:

[0044]

[0045] In the formula, G k and P r，G，k They represent the capacity utilization rate and rated capacity of the natural gas generator set respectively; P G，k Indicates the actual output value of the natural gas generator device; G s，k A collection of states that represent the operating states of the natural gas generator unit.

[0046] Preferably, the power transmission constraint is as shown in the following formula:

[0047]

[0048] Among them, P L，max Indicates the upper limit of the maximum power flow of the power system line L, -P L，max It represents the lower limit of the maximum power flow of the power system line L; Indicates the input power range of line L.

[0049] In summary, the implementation of the embodiments of the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0050] The gas turbine capacity planning method for the gas-electricity complementary energy system provided by the present invention first determines the minimum investment and construction cost, conventional operation cost, resource scheduling cost, etc. as the target, and fully considers the influence of machine-level start-up and shutdown, resource calling operation constraints on the planning results; according to the gas-electricity output characteristics, a gas-electricity output model and a comprehensive cost model are established, the cost is predicted by the established model, and the optimal planning cost plan is judged according to the prediction result, which effectively provides a certain reference for the planning, construction and reasonable configuration of the gas-electricity complementary power generation system; to ensure the safe, reliable and economical operation of the gas-electricity complementary comprehensive energy system, the present invention ensures the accuracy of the investment optimization plan to avoid affecting the enterprise benefits and social benefits. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0051] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, without paying creative labor, other drawings obtained based on these drawings still belong to the scope of the present invention.

[0052] Figure 1 The main process diagram of a gas turbine capacity planning method for a gas-electricity complementary energy system according to an embodiment of the present invention is shown.

[0053] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the comparison between the cost prediction result and the benefit result in the embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0054] In order to make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more clear, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0055] like Figure 1 FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a gas turbine capacity planning method for a gas-electricity complementary energy system provided by the present invention. In this embodiment, the method includes the following steps:

[0056] Obtain the power load data of the target planning area and the planned service life of the gas turbine; that is, obtain the power load data of the planned area, such as an industrial park, commercial park or residential area, and predict the power load of the planned area for the next N years, such as 10 years, 15 years, etc.

[0057] The power load data of the target planning area and the planned service life are input into a preset prediction model for cost prediction, and the cost prediction results of multiple gas turbine capacity planning schemes within the planned service life are obtained; that is, the cost value under the gas turbine capacity planning conditions within N years is predicted by the prediction model, and the time-cost curve can be obtained from the relationship between time and cost, and then the time-benefit curve and the time-benefit curve are compared, and the gas turbine capacity with a time-benefit curve greater than the time-benefit curve interval is selected as the selected interval, such as Figure 2 shown.

[0058] In a specific embodiment, the calculation of the corresponding cost within the planned service life through a preset prediction model includes: in the state of gas turbine capacity planning data, the corresponding initial investment cost, annual operating cost, annual maintenance cost, annual carbon emission cost and government subsidy income are calculated through the preset prediction model; the sum of the initial investment cost, the annual operating cost, the annual maintenance cost and the annual carbon emission cost minus the government subsidy income is output as the annual cost prediction result; the annual cost prediction result is multiplied by the planned service life to obtain the cost prediction result. That is, the annual value of the total cost of the gas-electric complementary energy system over the entire life cycle is f ATC Including the initial investment cost of the entire life cycle in , annual operating cost ru , annual maintenance cost ma , annual carbon emission cost f ed and government subsidy income bt Specifically, the first objective function is expressed as F = minf ATC =min{f in +f ru +f ma +f cs +f ed -f bt}.

[0059] Furthermore, the initial investment cost is calculated by the following formula:

[0060]

[0061] Among them, f in represents the initial investment cost; r represents the annual interest rate of capital; N represents the equipment life; k represents the system equipment type; i represents the equipment serial number; X irepresents the rated capacity of the i-th device; a i represents the unit capacity price of the i-th device; b i represents the land cost of the i-th equipment; c i represents the installation cost of the i-th device; D represents other costs.

[0062] Specifically, the annual operating cost is calculated by the following formula:

[0063] f ru =f cs +f ge

[0064]

[0065] Among them, f ru represents the annual operating cost, the annual operating cost f ru Including annual gas cost f cs and annual electricity purchase cost f ge ;f cs represents the annual gas cost; f ge represents the annual electricity purchase cost, which is the product of the total operating time, unit power consumption and electricity price; T represents the total operating time, t represents the time sequence number, a represents the gas price, and P(t) represents the gas consumption.

[0066] More specifically, the annual maintenance cost is calculated by the following formula:

[0067] f ma =γf in

[0068] Among them, f ma represents the annual maintenance cost; f in represents the initial investment cost; γ is the proportion of system maintenance cost in the initial investment of equipment.

[0069] The annual carbon emission cost is calculated by the following formula:

[0070]

[0071] Among them, f ed represents the annual carbon emission cost; T represents the total operation time; t represents the time sequence number; I represents the total number of equipment; i represents the equipment serial number; P i (t) represents the gas consumption of the i-th equipment; represents the unit emission of gas pollutants of the i-th equipment; φ i Represents the unit emission price of pollutants of the i-th equipment.

[0072] Furthermore, the preset prediction model is also used to set constraints on the gas turbine when predicting the gas turbine capacity planning data, wherein the constraints include one or more of natural gas constraints, generator set constraints, and power transmission constraints.

[0073] Specifically, the natural gas constraint is shown in the following formula:

[0074] F s，m +F P2G，m +C G，m -F D，m -F GPG，m -F m =0

[0075] Among them, F P2G，m Indicates the natural gas injected into the power-to-gas equipment of the natural gas node; F D，m represents the natural gas load demand of the natural gas node; F GPG，m Indicates the natural gas flow consumed by the natural gas generator at the natural gas node; F m represents the natural gas flow rate injected into the natural gas node; F s，m represents the gas source flow rate at the natural gas node; C G，m represents the natural gas load reduction at the natural gas system node;

[0076] The natural gas pipeline flow is constrained by the following formula:

[0077]

[0078] Among them, C mn A constant representing the natural gas transmission pipeline from m to n; π m , π n Respectively represent the gas pressure values ​​of m and n of the natural gas node; F mn Represents the natural gas flow from natural gas pipeline m to n.

[0079] Specifically, the generator set constraints include generator set output constraints, generator set capacity constraints and generator set capacity utilization constraints;

[0080] The generator set output constraint is shown in the following formula:

[0081]

[0082] in, represents the power output of generator set k at time t; and They represent the minimum output and the maximum output respectively; k represents the serial number of the generator set;

[0083] The generator set climbing constraint is performed by the following formula:

[0084]

[0085] in, represents the power output of generator set k at time t-1; and They represent the maximum rate of increase and the rate of decrease of the output of the k generator set respectively;

[0086] The capacity constraint of the generator set is shown in the following formula:

[0087] F G，min ≤F G ≤F G，max

[0088] Among them, F G，min and F G，max They respectively represent the lower limit of the natural gas flow consumed by the natural gas generator of the natural gas node and the upper limit of the natural gas flow consumed by the natural gas generator;

[0089] The generator set capacity utilization constraint is shown in the following formula:

[0090]

[0091] In the formula, G k and P r，G，k They represent the capacity utilization rate and rated capacity of the natural gas generator set respectively; P G，k Indicates the actual output value of the natural gas generator device; G s，k A collection of states that represent the operating states of the natural gas generator unit.

[0092] More specifically, the power transmission constraint is shown in the following formula:

[0093]

[0094] Among them, P L，max Indicates the upper limit of the maximum power flow of the power system line L, -P L，max It represents the lower limit of the maximum power flow of the power system line L; Indicates the input power range of line L.

[0095] Comparing the cost prediction results of the plurality of gas turbine capacity planning schemes within the planned service life with the preset benefit results, and when the cost prediction result of any gas turbine capacity planning scheme within the planned service life is less than the benefit result, outputting the gas turbine capacity planning scheme as a preferred gas turbine capacity planning scheme;

[0096] A preferred gas turbine capacity planning scheme with the lowest required cost is selected from the preferred gas turbine capacity planning, and the final gas turbine capacity planning is outputted.

[0097] In summary, the implementation of the embodiments of the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0098] The gas turbine capacity planning method for the gas-electricity complementary energy system provided by the present invention first determines the minimum investment and construction cost, conventional operation cost, resource scheduling cost, etc. as the target, and fully considers the influence of machine-level start-up and shutdown, resource calling operation constraints on the planning results; according to the gas-electricity output characteristics, a gas-electricity output model and a comprehensive cost model are established, the cost is predicted by the established model, and the optimal planning cost plan is judged according to the prediction result, which effectively provides a certain reference for the planning, construction and reasonable configuration of the gas-electricity complementary power generation system; to ensure the safe, reliable and economical operation of the gas-electricity complementary comprehensive energy system, the present invention ensures the accuracy of the investment optimization plan to avoid affecting the enterprise benefits and social benefits.

[0099] The above disclosure is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, which certainly cannot be used to limit the scope of the present invention. Therefore, equivalent changes made according to the claims of the present invention are still within the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A gas turbine capacity planning method for a gas-electricity complementary energy system, characterized in that: include: Obtain the electricity load data of the target planning area and the planned service life of the gas turbine; Inputting the electricity load data of the target planning area and the planned service life into a preset prediction model for cost prediction, and obtaining cost prediction results of multiple gas turbine capacity planning schemes within the planned service life; Comparing the cost prediction results of the plurality of gas turbine capacity planning schemes within the planned service life with the preset benefit results, and when the cost prediction result of any gas turbine capacity planning scheme within the planned service life is less than the benefit result, outputting the gas turbine capacity planning scheme as a preferred gas turbine capacity planning scheme; Selecting a preferred gas turbine capacity planning scheme with the lowest required cost from the preferred gas turbine capacity planning, and outputting it as a final gas turbine capacity planning; The calculation of the corresponding cost within the planned service life according to the gas turbine capacity planning data by using a preset prediction model includes: Under the gas turbine capacity planning data state, the corresponding initial investment cost, annual operating cost, annual maintenance cost, annual carbon emission cost and government subsidy income are calculated by the preset prediction model; Outputting the result of deducting the government subsidy income from the sum of the initial investment cost, the annual operating cost, the annual maintenance cost and the annual carbon emission cost as an annual cost forecast result; Multiply the annual cost forecast result by the planned service life to obtain a cost forecast result; The initial investment cost is calculated by the following formula: Among them, f in represents the initial investment cost; r represents the annual interest rate of capital; N represents the equipment life; k represents the system equipment type; i represents the equipment serial number; X i represents the rated capacity of the i-th device; a i represents the unit capacity price of the i-th device; b i represents the land cost of the i-th equipment; c i represents the installation cost of the i-th device; D represents other costs.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The annual operating cost is calculated by the following formula: f ru =f cs +f ge Among them, f ru represents the annual operating cost; f cs represents the annual gas cost; f ge represents the annual electricity purchase cost, which is the product of the total operating time, unit power consumption and electricity price; T represents the total operating time, t represents the time sequence number, a represents the gas price, and P(t) represents the gas consumption.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The annual maintenance cost is calculated by the following formula: favorite ma =γf in Among them, f ma represents the annual maintenance cost; f in represents the initial investment cost; γ is the proportion of system maintenance cost in the initial investment of equipment.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The annual carbon emission cost is calculated by the following formula: Among them, f ed represents the annual carbon emission cost; T represents the total operation time; t represents the time sequence number; I represents the total number of devices; i represents the device serial number; P i (t) represents the gas consumption of the i-th equipment; represents the unit emission of gas pollutants of the i-th equipment; φ i Represents the unit emission price of pollutants of the i-th equipment.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The preset prediction model is also used to set constraints on the gas turbine when predicting the gas turbine capacity planning data, wherein the constraints include one or more of natural gas constraints, generator set constraints, and power transmission constraints.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The natural gas constraint is expressed as follows: F s,m +F P2G,m +C G,m -F D,m -F GPG,m -F m =0 Among them, F P2G,m Indicates the natural gas injected into the power-to-gas equipment of the natural gas node; F D,m represents the natural gas load demand of the natural gas node; F GPG,m Indicates the natural gas flow consumed by the natural gas generator at the natural gas node; F m represents the natural gas flow rate injected into the natural gas node; F s,m represents the gas source flow rate at the natural gas node; C G,m represents the natural gas load reduction at the natural gas system node; The natural gas pipeline flow is constrained by the following formula: Among them, C mn A constant representing the natural gas transmission pipeline from m to n; π m , π n Respectively represent the gas pressure values ​​of m and n of the natural gas node; F mn Represents the natural gas flow from natural gas pipeline m to n.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The generator set constraints include generator set output constraints, generator set capacity constraints and generator set capacity utilization constraints; The generator set output constraint is shown in the following formula: in, represents the power output of generator set k at time t; and They represent the minimum output and the maximum output respectively; k represents the serial number of the generator set; The generator set climbing constraint is performed by the following formula: in, represents the power output of generator set k at time t-1; and They represent the maximum rate of increase and the rate of decrease of the output of the k generator set respectively; The capacity constraint of the generator set is shown in the following formula: F G,min ≤F G ≤F G,max Among them, F G,min and F G,max They respectively represent the lower limit of the natural gas flow consumed by the natural gas generator of the natural gas node and the upper limit of the natural gas flow consumed by the natural gas generator; The generator set capacity utilization constraint is shown in the following formula: In the formula, G k and P r,G,k They represent the capacity utilization rate and rated capacity of the natural gas generator set respectively; P G,k Indicates the actual output value of the natural gas generator device; G s,k A collection of states that represent the operating states of the natural gas generator unit.

8. The method according to claim 7, characterized in that The power transfer constraint is expressed as follows: Among them, P L,max Indicates the upper limit of the maximum power flow of the power system line L, -P L,max It represents the lower limit of the maximum power flow of the power system line L; Indicates the input power range of line L.

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