A risk assessment method for water diversion and regulation projects

Abstract

A risk assessment method for a water diversion project water channel comprises: constructing a risk assessment index system for a water diversion project water channel, a risk assessment index system, a risk rate assessment index system and a risk loss assessment index system, each of which is composed of a target layer, a criterion layer and an indicator layer; determining a scoring standard for risk indexes of a water diversion project water channel, including a risk rate and risk loss assessment benchmark and a scoring standard for evaluation indexes of a water diversion project water channel; using an expert consultation method and a hierarchical analysis method to determine a risk rate index / risk loss criterion layer and an indicator weight W for a water diversion project water channel i The invention helps to solve the problem that the existing water diversion river channel risk rate / risk loss evaluation index system is difficult to comprehensively, systematically and objectively evaluate the water diversion project water diversion river channel risk index.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the field of risk assessment of water delivery channels, and in particular to a risk assessment method for water delivery channels of water diversion and regulation projects. Background Art

[0002] As we all know, water resources are closely related to regional food security, ecological security, and economic development. However, due to the influence of multiple factors such as geographical location and climate, the uneven distribution of rainfall has led to significant spatial differences in the distribution of water resources in my country. Overall, it has the typical characteristics of more in the south and less in the north, more in the east and less in the west. For water-scarce areas, the problem of water shortage has become the biggest bottleneck restricting regional development. Against this background, the "four horizontal and three vertical" overall layout of China's South-to-North Water Diversion came into being. Among them, the "three verticals" refer to the three water diversion routes in the east, middle and west, and the "four horizontals" refer to the Yangtze River, Huaihe River, Yellow River and Haihe River. By constructing the overall pattern of "four horizontals and three verticals", the optimal allocation of water resources in my country can be achieved, which is a major strategic infrastructure to solve the serious shortage of water resources in northern my country, promote economic development, improve the environment and maintain social stability.

[0003] Since water diversion projects span a wide range of space, their water channels often have the characteristics of long lines, many nodes, and complex risk factors. In order to ensure the water supply safety of water channels, effective risk management is crucial, and a reasonable, comprehensive, systematic, and objective risk assessment method is the premise for carrying out risk management and formulating risk control strategies. However, the existing water channel risk assessment methods have the following shortcomings: (1) Existing studies focus on risk rate evaluation, ignore risk loss evaluation, or when considering risk loss, pay more attention to a certain factor of risk loss (such as river channel length). The risk loss consideration factors are not comprehensive, and the normalized quantitative evaluation of risk rate-risk loss cannot be achieved; (2) The risk rate of water channels involves hydrological characteristics, engineering structure, river channel structure, operation management, etc. Existing risk assessment methods often focus on one aspect of risk management (such as hydrological load, embankment structure, river channel shape, etc.) and fail to reflect the characteristics of water channels of water diversion projects (compared with the high degree of human management of general rivers), making it difficult to comprehensively, systematically, and objectively evaluate the risk index of water channels of water diversion projects.

[0004] Based on this, the present invention intends to provide a risk assessment method for water diversion and regulation projects: (1) A water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation channel risk rate evaluation index system that comprehensively considers the four aspects of hydrological characteristics, channel structure, engineering structure, and operation management. It considers all factors and combines the characteristics of the water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation channels, which helps to objectively and comprehensively evaluate the water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation channel risk rate index; (2) Comprehensively consider the failure external load and channel structure of the water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation channel, and construct a water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation channel risk loss evaluation index system, which realizes the quantitative hierarchical evaluation of the water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation channel risk loss, and improves the current water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation channel evaluation. The defect of focusing on the risk loss of a single factor. In addition, the present invention combines the quantitative and dimensionless water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation channel risk rate index and the water diversion and regulation project risk loss index, and draws a two-dimensional matrix diagram of the water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation channel risk rate-risk loss, which helps to clearly reflect the overall risk status of the evaluation object. Summary of the invention

[0005] The present invention intends to provide a method for risk assessment of water channels of water diversion and regulation projects, so as to solve the problem that the existing water channel risk rate / risk loss assessment index system focuses on a certain aspect of risk management (such as external load, embankment structure, river channel shape, operation management, etc.) or a certain element of risk loss (such as river channel length) and fails to reflect the characteristics of water channels of water diversion and regulation projects (compared with general rivers, the degree of human management is high), and it is difficult to comprehensively, systematically and objectively evaluate the risk index of water channels of water diversion and regulation projects.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, this application provides the following technical solutions:

[0007] The present invention provides a method for risk assessment of a water channel of a water diversion and regulation project, comprising the following steps:

[0008] Step 1, constructing a risk assessment index system for water diversion and water diversion projects, wherein the risk assessment index system, the risk rate assessment index system and the risk loss assessment index system are each composed of a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer;

[0009] Step 2: Determine the scoring standards for risk indicators of water diversion and water transfer projects, including the risk rate and risk loss evaluation benchmark and scoring standards for evaluation indicators of water diversion and water transfer projects;

[0010] Step 3: Use expert consultation and analytic hierarchy process to determine the risk rate index / risk loss criterion layer and index weight W of the water diversion project water channel i Value selection; set the matrix consistency test standard threshold. If the one-time test of the judgment matrix passes, the process is terminated and the weight matrix of the evaluation index system is obtained. Otherwise, repeat this step;

[0011] Step 4, according to the weight matrix of the evaluation index system obtained in step 3, determine the risk rate index and risk loss index of the water diversion project water channel, and give a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss.

[0012] Furthermore, in the risk rate evaluation index system, the target layer is the risk rate index of the water diversion project water channel, and the criterion layer includes four aspects: hydrological characteristics, river channel structure, engineering structure, and operation management. The criterion layer focuses on and has 22 specific indicators, as follows:

[0013] v) Hydrological characteristic criterion layer, focusing on the hydrological conditions of the water channel basin of the water diversion project, including a total of 1 indicator of flood characteristics;

[0014] vi) River channel structure criterion layer, focusing on the spatial form of the water channel of the water diversion project and the potential siltation risk. The spatial form of the river channel includes three indicators, namely the river correlation coefficient, the river channel curvature coefficient and the river channel longitudinal gradient. The potential siltation risk includes one indicator, namely the river channel siltation intensity.

[0015] vii) Engineering structure criteria layer, focusing on three aspects: embankment structure, embankment foundation condition, and embankment construction materials. The embankment structure includes four indicators: embankment structure uniformity, embankment crest width, embankment crest superelevation, and embankment river slope; the embankment foundation condition includes three indicators: embankment foundation clay content, embankment foundation permeability coefficient, and embankment foundation compaction; the embankment construction materials include three indicators: embankment body clay content, embankment body permeability coefficient, and embankment body compaction;

[0016] The operation and management criteria layer focuses on three aspects: system status, personnel conditions, and infrastructure. The system status includes two indicators: the degree of perfection of the management system and the degree of perfection of the emergency plan; the personnel conditions include two indicators: the rationality of the personnel structure and the technical level of the personnel; the infrastructure includes three indicators: the per capita computer equipment, the adequacy of material reserves, and the transportation conditions.

[0017] Furthermore, for the risk loss evaluation index system, the target layer is the risk loss index of the water diversion project water channel, the criterion layer includes external loads and river channel structure, and the indicator layer includes two indicators, namely, river channel design flow and river channel design length.

[0018] Furthermore,

[0019] Furthermore, the step 2 determines the scoring standard for the risk index of the water diversion project water channel, which specifically includes:

[0020] i) First, determine the risk rate of the water channel of the water diversion project and the risk loss assessment benchmark:

[0021] ① For the risk rate index, referring to the practice of dam projects, the risk rate of the single risk factor, that is, the single risk indicator in the evaluation system, is divided into 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 levels.

[0022] The probability of risk occurrence should be low, relatively low, medium, relatively high, and high;

[0023] ② For the risk loss index, the risk loss of a single risk factor is divided into five categories, namely level 1, level 2, level 3, level 4, and level 5, corresponding to slight, relatively slight, moderate, significant, and extremely significant risk losses;

[0024] ii) Determine the scoring standards for the risk rate and risk loss evaluation indicators of the water diversion project water channel, and determine the risk rate / risk loss Di scoring standards under different values ​​of the risk rate evaluation system and risk loss evaluation system indicator layer through expert consultation and reference to relevant industry specifications and design regulations, where i = 1, 2, ..., n.

[0025] Furthermore, the scoring standard for the risk index of the water diversion project water channel determined in step 2 is as follows:

[0026] Table 5-1 Scoring standards for risk rate indicators of water diversion projects

[0027]

[0028]

[0029] Table 5-2 Scoring standards for risk loss indicators of water diversion projects

[0030]

[0031] Furthermore, in step 3, the expert consultation method and the hierarchical analysis method are used to determine the risk rate index / risk loss criterion layer and the index weight W of the water diversion project water channel. i The value includes:

[0032] i) Design of expert evaluation table, including the criterion layer of the risk rate / risk loss evaluation system of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel and the indicator layer corresponding to any criterion layer, specifically "Expert judgment table for the criterion layer of the risk rate of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel", "Expert judgment table for the indicator layer of the risk rate of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel", "Expert judgment table for the criterion layer of the risk loss of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel", "Expert judgment table for the indicator layer of the risk loss of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel"; experts with rich working experience in the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel shall judge the relative importance of each risk factor one by one;

[0033] ii) Construction of judgment matrix: Based on the judgment results of m experts, the judgment matrix of the risk rate / risk loss criterion layer and the indicator layer of the water diversion project water channel is constructed in turn. The specific process is as follows:

[0034] ①Convert the judgment results of m experts into a structural judgment matrix, and the judgment results of the kth expert into a matrix R k =[r ij,k ](k=1,2,...,m), where r ij,k represents the kth expert's judgment on the relative importance of element i and element j. If r ij,k =1, indicating that the kth expert believes that element i and element j are equally important; if r ij,k =3, indicating that the kth expert believes that element i is more important than element j; if r ij,k =5, indicating that the kth expert believes that the i element is significantly more important than the j element, and so on;

[0035] ②Using the mathematical average method, comprehensively and comprehensively consider the different judgments of experts on the same evaluation object, take the arithmetic average of the judgment matrix elements of the same evaluation object (such as the criterion layer of the risk rate evaluation system) in turn, and obtain the discriminant matrix in

[0036] iii) Weight vector calculation, here the sum value method is used to calculate the judgment matrix The weight vector, specifically

[0037] The process includes:

[0038] ① Normalization of judgment matrix column dimensions

[0039]

[0040] ② Normalized matrix row dimension summation conversion

[0041]

[0042] ③ Normalization transformation of matrix (2)

[0043]

[0044] ④ Matrix transposition to obtain the judgment matrix weight vector

[0045]

[0046] ⑤ Calculation of consistency judgment index of judgment matrix

[0047]

[0048]

[0049] In the formula, λ max is the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix; CI is the consistency index of the judgment matrix; RI is the average random consistency index of the judgment matrix (can be obtained by looking up the table); CR is the random consistency ratio of the judgment matrix.

[0050] iv) Consistency test of the judgment matrix. The matrix consistency test standard threshold is set to 0.05, that is, if CR < 0.05, the judgment matrix consistency is considered to meet the requirements, otherwise it does not meet the requirements;

[0051] v) If the one-time test of the judgment matrix passes, the process is terminated and the weight matrix of the evaluation index system is obtained, otherwise it returns to ii) and starts again.

[0052] Furthermore, the step 4 determines the risk rate index and risk loss index of the water channel of the water diversion project according to the weight matrix of the evaluation index system obtained in step 3, and gives a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss, which specifically includes:

[0053] i) Calculate the comprehensive evaluation results of the risk rate / risk loss of the water diversion project water channel, the formula is:

[0054]

[0055] In the formula, X is the comprehensive evaluation result of the evaluation object; i is the evaluation value of a certain evaluation index, which can be 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5; W i The weight of a certain evaluation indicator;

[0056] ii) Formulate a comprehensive evaluation standard for risk rate and risk loss of water diversion projects, and classify the comprehensive evaluation results of risk rate and risk loss into five categories: low risk, relatively low risk, medium risk, relatively high risk, and high risk according to the values ​​(0, 1], (1, 2], (2, 3], (3, 4], (4, 5);

[0057] iii) Draw a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss of the water diversion project water channel.

[0058] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0059] (1) The present invention constructs a set of water diversion project water channel risk rate evaluation index system that comprehensively considers the four aspects of hydrological characteristics, river channel structure, engineering structure, and operation management. It considers all factors and combines the characteristics of the water diversion project water channel, which helps to objectively and comprehensively evaluate the water diversion project water channel risk rate index;

[0060] (2) Taking into account the external loads and river structure of the water diversion and regulation project, a risk loss evaluation index system for the water diversion and regulation project water diversion channel was constructed, which realized the quantitative graded evaluation of the risk loss of the water diversion and regulation project water diversion channel, and improved the defect of the current water diversion and regulation project water diversion channel evaluation that focuses on the risk loss of a single factor.

[0061] (3) The present invention combines the quantitative and dimensionless water diversion and regulation project water channel risk rate index and the water diversion and regulation project risk loss index to draw a two-dimensional matrix diagram of water diversion and regulation project water channel risk rate-risk loss, which helps to clearly reflect the overall risk status of the evaluation object. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0062] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical process of the embodiment of the present invention, the drawings used in the embodiment of the present invention will be briefly introduced below. However, it should be stated that the drawings only show a certain embodiment of the present invention application and should not be regarded as limiting the scope.

[0063] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a water diversion project water diversion channel risk rate evaluation index system used in a water diversion project water diversion channel risk evaluation method according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0064] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a risk loss evaluation index system for a water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation channel adopted by a water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation channel risk evaluation method according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0065] Figure 3 It is a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss of a water delivery channel according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0066] Figure 4 The present invention is a flowchart of a method for risk assessment of a water diversion channel of a water diversion project according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0067] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0068] like Figure 4 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for risk assessment of a water channel of a water diversion project, comprising the following steps:

[0069] 1) According to the hydrological characteristics of the area where the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel is located, the river structure, project structure and operation and management factors, determine the risk rate evaluation index of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel, and construct a hierarchical model for the risk rate evaluation of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel, which consists of a target layer, a criterion layer and an indicator layer;

[0070] 2) Similarly, in combination with the service objects and service contents of the water diversion and regulation project, the risk loss evaluation index of the water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation river channel is determined from the perspective of external loads and river channel structure, and a hierarchical model for risk loss evaluation of the water diversion and regulation project water diversion and regulation river channel is constructed, the hierarchical model consisting of a target layer, a criterion layer and an indicator layer;

[0071] 3) Determine the scoring standard for risk indicators of water diversion projects through expert consultation and data review (relevant industry standards, design regulations, etc.);

[0072] 4) Based on the expert consultation opinions, the mathematical average method is used to comprehensively and comprehensively consider the different judgments of experts on the same evaluation object, and determine the judgment matrix of the water diversion project water channel risk assessment index system (including risk rate and risk loss) in Conduct a consistency test on the judgment matrix (the test standard threshold is set to 0.05). If it does not meet the requirements, return to step 4) and start again until the consistency requirements are met;

[0073] 5) Use the sum value method to calculate the judgment matrix The weight vector of the water diversion project is used to determine the weight of the risk assessment index system of the water diversion project water channel;

[0074] 6) The analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the risk index of the water channel of the water diversion project, and a two-dimensional matrix diagram of the risk rate-risk loss of the water channel of the water diversion project is drawn (the colors from dark to light represent high risk, relatively high risk, medium risk, relatively low risk, and low risk). Specific embodiment:

[0076] The Yangtze-Huaihe River Diversion Project is a major strategic water resources allocation and comprehensive utilization project across river basins and regions. From south to north, it is divided into three parts: Diverting the Yangtze River to Chaoyang, connecting the Yangtze River and Huaihe River, and sending the Yangtze River water to the north. In terms of administrative divisions, it involves two sections, Henan Province and Anhui Province. Among them, the Yangtze-Huaihe River Diversion Project (Henan Section) undertakes the task of supplying water for production and life in 9 counties (cities and districts) in 2 cities including Zhoukou and Shangqiu. It is large in scale and complex in structure. The water diversion channel of the Yangtze-Huaihe River Diversion Project (Henan Section) includes Qingshuihe Gate-Zhaolou Gate, Zhaolou Gate-Trial Gate, Trial Gate-Trial Storage Reservoir and Trial Gate-Houchenlou Control Gate. Here, the present invention will be used to evaluate the risk rate and risk loss index of the project water diversion channel.

[0077] Step 1: Construct a risk rate evaluation index system for the water diversion channel of the Yangtze-Huaihe River Diversion Project (Henan section).

[0078] The water diversion project is constructed from the four dimensions of hydrological characteristics of the area where the water diversion channel is located, river structure, project structure and operation management. Figure 1 The water diversion project water channel risk rate evaluation index system shown in the figure includes 1 target, 4 criteria (9 sub-criteria layers) and 22 indicators.

[0079] Step 2: Construct a risk loss evaluation index system for the water diversion channel of the Yangtze-Huaihe River Diversion Project (Henan section).

[0080] Based on the service objects and service contents of water diversion and regulation projects, and considering external loads and river channel structures, we construct Figure 2 The risk loss evaluation index system for water diversion and regulation projects' water delivery channel includes 1 goal, 2 criteria and 2 indicators.

[0081] Step 3: Determine the scoring criteria for 22 risk rate evaluation indicators and 4 risk loss evaluation indicators.

[0082] Through expert consultation and data review (relevant industry standards, design regulations, etc.), the scoring standards for risk indicators of water diversion and regulation projects are determined, see Table 2-1 and Table 2-2.

[0083] Table 2-1 Risk rate index scoring standard table

[0084]

[0085]

[0086]

[0087] Table 2-2 Risk loss index scoring standard table

[0088]

[0089] Step 4: Determine the judgment matrix of the risk rate evaluation index system and the risk loss evaluation index system.

[0090] According to the expert consultation opinions, the mathematical average method is used to comprehensively and comprehensively consider the different judgments of experts on the same evaluation object, and determine the judgment matrix of the water diversion project water channel risk evaluation index system (including risk rate and risk loss) in Considering that the evaluation index system has many levels, some judgment matrices are given here:

[0091] 1) Judgment matrix of risk rate evaluation index system for water diversion and regulation projects

[0092] For the four criteria layers included in the “target layer”: hydrological characteristics, river structure, engineering structure and operation management, the judgment matrix was obtained through expert consultation.

[0093]

[0094] The calculated consistency ratio CR=0.018<0.05 meets the consistency requirements.

[0095] For the sub-criteria layer indicators included in the "river structure" criterion layer: spatial form, siltation hazards, the judgment matrix was obtained after expert consultation

[0096]

[0097] The calculated consistency ratio CR=0.000<0.05 meets the consistency requirements.

[0098] For the sub-criteria layer indicators included in the "engineering structure" criterion layer: embankment structure, embankment foundation condition and embankment materials, the judgment matrix was obtained after expert consultation

[0099]

[0100] The calculated consistency ratio CR=0.0036<0.05 meets the consistency requirements.

[0101] For the sub-criteria indicators of the "operation management" criterion layer, the system status, personnel conditions and infrastructure are obtained through expert consultation.

[0102]

[0103] The calculated consistency ratio CR=0.000<0.1 meets the consistency requirement.

[0104] The indicator layer judgment matrix is ​​similar to this and will not be listed one by one.

[0105] 2) Judgment matrix of risk loss evaluation index system for water diversion projects

[0106] For the two criteria layers included in the "target layer": external load and river structure, the judgment matrix was obtained after expert consultation

[0107]

[0108] The calculated consistency ratio CR=0.000<0.1 meets the consistency requirement.

[0109] The indicator layer judgment matrix is ​​similar to this and will not be listed one by one.

[0110] Step 5: Determine the weights of risk rate and risk loss evaluation indicators.

[0111] The sum value method is used to calculate the judgment matrix The weight vector of the water diversion and regulation project water channel risk assessment index system is then determined. The weights of the water diversion and regulation project water channel risk rate assessment index system are shown in Table 2-3, and the weights of the water diversion and regulation project water channel risk loss assessment index system are shown in Table 2-4.

[0112] Table 2-3 Weights of risk rate evaluation indicators for water diversion projects

[0113]

[0114]

[0115] Table 2-4 Weights of risk loss evaluation indicators for water diversion projects

[0116]

[0117] Step 6, calculate the risk index of the water channel of the water diversion project, and draw a two-dimensional matrix diagram of the risk rate-risk loss of the water channel of the water diversion project.

[0118] By consulting the engineering design data, the main design parameters of the water diversion project's water delivery channel are determined. Combined with the above-mentioned scoring standards for the risk rate and risk loss index of the water diversion project's water delivery channel, the water delivery channel risk rate and risk loss evaluation results can be obtained as shown in the following Tables 2-5 to 2-8.

[0119] Table 2-5 Main parameters of water channel risk rate

[0120]

[0121]

[0122]

[0123] Table 2-6 Results of risk assessment of water diversion channels

[0124]

[0125]

[0126] Table 2-7 Main parameters of risk loss in water supply channels

[0127]

[0128] Table 2-8 Results of risk loss assessment for water diversion channels

[0129]

[0130] Combined with the evaluation results of the water diversion project water channel risk index, a two-dimensional matrix diagram of water diversion project water channel risk rate-risk loss can be drawn, such as Figure 3 As shown, the colors from dark to light represent high risk, relatively high risk, medium risk, relatively low risk, and low risk. Using the quantitative and dimensionless water diversion project water channel risk rate index and water diversion project risk loss index as the horizontal and vertical coordinates, the risk rate-risk loss two-dimensional matrix diagram is drawn, which helps to clearly reflect the overall risk status of the evaluation object.

[0131] The present invention helps to solve the problem that the existing water diversion channel risk rate / risk loss evaluation index system focuses on a certain aspect of risk management (such as external loads, levee structure, river channel shape, etc.) or a certain element of risk loss (such as river channel length) and fails to reflect the characteristics of the water diversion channel of the water diversion project (compared with the general river channel, the degree of human management is high), and it is difficult to comprehensively, systematically and objectively evaluate the risk index of the water diversion channel of the water diversion project.

[0132] The above is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any changes or substitutions that can be easily thought of by a person skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention should be based on the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for risk assessment of water diversion and water transfer projects, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1, constructing a risk assessment index system for water diversion projects, wherein the risk assessment index system includes a risk rate assessment index system and a risk loss assessment index system, each of which is composed of a target layer, a criterion layer, and an index layer; Step 2: Determine the scoring standards for risk indicators of water diversion and water transfer projects, including the risk rate and risk loss evaluation benchmark and scoring standards for evaluation indicators of water diversion and water transfer projects; Step 3: Use expert consultation and analytic hierarchy process to determine the risk rate index / risk loss criterion layer and index layer weight W of the water diversion project water channel i Value selection; set the matrix consistency test standard threshold. If the one-time test of the judgment matrix passes, the process is terminated and the weight matrix of the evaluation index system is obtained. Otherwise, repeat this step; Step 4, determining the risk rate index and risk loss index of the water channel of the water diversion project according to the weight matrix of the evaluation index system obtained in step 3, and providing a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss; For the risk rate evaluation index system, the target layer is the risk rate index of the water diversion project water channel, and the criterion layer includes four aspects: hydrological characteristics, river channel structure, engineering structure, and operation management. The criterion layer focuses on and has 22 specific indicators, as follows: i) Hydrological characteristic criteria layer, focusing on the hydrological conditions of the water channel basin of the water diversion project, including a total of 1 indicator of flood characteristics; ii) The river channel structure criterion layer focuses on the spatial form of the water channel of the water diversion project and the potential siltation risk. The spatial form of the river channel includes three indicators, namely the river correlation coefficient, the river channel curvature coefficient and the river channel longitudinal gradient. The potential siltation risk includes one indicator, namely the river channel siltation intensity. iii) Engineering structure criteria layer, focusing on three aspects: embankment structure, embankment foundation condition, and embankment construction materials. The embankment structure includes four indicators: embankment structure uniformity, embankment crest width, embankment crest superelevation, and embankment river slope; the embankment foundation condition includes three indicators: embankment foundation clay content, embankment foundation permeability coefficient, and embankment foundation compaction; the embankment construction materials include three indicators: embankment body clay content, embankment body permeability coefficient, and embankment body compaction; iv) Operation management criteria layer, focusing on three aspects: system status, personnel conditions, and infrastructure. The system status includes two indicators: the degree of perfection of management system and the degree of perfection of emergency plan; the personnel conditions include two indicators: the rationality of personnel structure and the technical level of personnel; the infrastructure includes three indicators: the number of computers per capita, the adequacy of material reserves, and the transportation status; For the risk loss evaluation index system, the target layer is the risk loss index of the water diversion project water channel, the criterion layer includes external loads and river channel structure, and the index layer includes two indicators, namely, the river channel design flow and the river channel design length; The step 2 determines the scoring standard for the risk index of the water channel of the water diversion project, which specifically includes: i) First, determine the risk rate of the water channel of the water diversion project and the risk loss assessment benchmark: ① For the risk rate index, referring to the practice of dam projects, the risk rate of the single risk factor, that is, the single risk indicator in the evaluation system, is divided into Level 1, Level 2, Level 3, Level 4, and Level 5, corresponding to the probability of risk occurrence being low, relatively low, medium, relatively high, and high; ② For the risk loss index, the risk loss of a single risk factor is divided into five categories, namely level 1, level 2, level 3, level 4, and level 5, corresponding to slight, relatively slight, moderate, significant, and extremely significant risk losses; ii) Determine the scoring standards for the risk rate and risk loss evaluation index of the water diversion project, and determine the risk rate / risk loss Di scoring standards under different values ​​of the risk rate evaluation system and the risk loss evaluation system indicator layer through expert consultation and reference to relevant industry specifications and design regulations, where i = 1, 2, ..., n; The scoring standards for the risk index of the water diversion project water channel determined in step 2 are as follows: Table 5-1 Scoring standards for risk rate indicators of water diversion projects Table 5-2 Scoring standards for risk loss indicators of water diversion projects In step 3, expert consultation and analytic hierarchy process are used to determine the risk rate index / risk loss criterion layer and index layer weight W of the water diversion project water channel. i The value includes: i) Design of expert evaluation table, including the criterion layer of the risk rate / risk loss evaluation system of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel and the indicator layer corresponding to any criterion layer, specifically "Expert judgment table for the criterion layer of the risk rate of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel", "Expert judgment table for the indicator layer of the risk rate of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel", "Expert judgment table for the criterion layer of the risk loss of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel", "Expert judgment table for the indicator layer of the risk loss of the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel"; experts with rich working experience in the water diversion and diversion project water diversion channel shall judge the relative importance of each risk factor one by one; ii) Construction of judgment matrix: Based on the judgment results of m experts, the judgment matrix of the risk rate / risk loss criterion layer and the indicator layer of the water diversion project water channel is constructed in turn. The specific process is as follows: ①Convert the judgment results of m experts into a structural judgment matrix, and the judgment results of the kth expert into a matrix R k =[r ij,k ], where k = 1, 2, ..., m, where r ij,k represents the kth expert's judgment on the relative importance of element i and element j. If r ij,k =1, indicating that the kth expert believes that element i and element j are equally important; if r ij,k =3, indicating that the kth expert believes that element i is more important than element j; if r ij,k =5, indicating that the kth expert believes that the i element is significantly more important than the j element, and so on; ②Using the mathematical averaging method, comprehensively and comprehensively consider the different judgments of experts on the same evaluation object, take the arithmetic mean of the judgment matrix elements of the same evaluation object in turn, and obtain the discriminant matrix in iii) Weight vector calculation, using the sum method to calculate the judgment matrix The specific process includes: ① Normalization of judgment matrix column dimensions ② Normalized matrix row dimension summation conversion ③ Normalization transformation of matrix (2-2) ④ Matrix transposition to obtain the judgment matrix weight vector ⑤ Calculation of consistency judgment index of judgment matrix In the formula, λ max is the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix; CI is the consistency index of the judgment matrix; RI is the average random consistency index of the judgment matrix; CR is the random consistency ratio of the judgment matrix; iv) Consistency test of the judgment matrix. The matrix consistency test standard threshold is set to 0.05, that is, if CR < 0.05, the judgment matrix consistency is considered to meet the requirements, otherwise it does not meet the requirements; v) If the one-time test of the judgment matrix passes, the process is terminated and the weight matrix of the evaluation index system is obtained, otherwise it returns to ii) and starts again; The step 4 determines the risk rate index and risk loss index of the water channel of the water diversion project according to the weight matrix of the evaluation index system obtained in step 3, and gives a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss, which specifically includes: i) Calculate the comprehensive evaluation results of the risk rate / risk loss of the water diversion project water channel, the formula is: In the formula, X is the comprehensive evaluation result of the evaluation object; i is the evaluation value of a certain evaluation index, which can be 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5; W i The weight of a certain evaluation indicator; ii) Formulate a comprehensive evaluation standard for risk rate and risk loss of water diversion projects, and classify the comprehensive evaluation results of risk rate and risk loss into five categories: low risk, relatively low risk, medium risk, relatively high risk, and high risk according to the values ​​(0, 1], (1, 2], (2, 3], (3, 4], (4, 5); iii) Draw a two-dimensional matrix diagram of risk rate-risk loss of the water diversion project water channel.

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