Method and system for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid project

Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation method and system, and the method comprises the steps: determining an evaluation index of power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction based on a DEMATEL method, and constructing an evaluation index system; the secondary indexes of the evaluation index system comprise an environmental index, an economic index, an energy efficiency index, a safety index and a social index; determining the weight of each evaluation index in the evaluation index system by adopting an entropy value-G2 cross weighting method; constructing an evaluation model based on a time sequence according to the evaluation indexes in the evaluation index system and the weights of the evaluation indexes; obtaining time sequence data of a to-be-evaluated power grid project, and calculating by using the evaluation model to obtain an evaluation value corresponding to the to-be-evaluated power grid project; and determining an emission reduction grade of the to-be-evaluated power grid project according to the evaluation value so as to optimize the to-be-evaluated power grid project. According to the method, more comprehensive and more accurate power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation can be realized, and a basis is provided for improving the power grid project carbon reduction effect and optimizing power grid project carbon reduction resource allocation.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power grid engineering construction, and in particular to a power grid engineering energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation method and system. Background Art

[0002] As the global climate change problem becomes increasingly serious, carbon reduction actions have become a consensus among all industries. With the construction of new power systems based on new energy, the proportion of new energy in the power structure continues to increase, and the pressure on the power grid also increases. With the improvement of the electrification level of terminal energy consumption, the demand for flexible resources in the power system from new loads is also increasing sharply. In order to meet these challenges, the construction of power grid projects such as UHV, energy storage, and smart distribution networks is continuing to increase. However, most of the existing research on the evaluation of the carbon reduction effect of power grid projects focuses on the evaluation of a certain field and does not have time characteristics, which cannot achieve the CO2 reduction of power grid projects. 2 Comprehensive and accurate assessment of emission reduction effects. Summary of the invention

[0003] To solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a method and system for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction in power grid projects, which realizes a more comprehensive and accurate energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation for power grid projects, and provides a basis for improving the carbon reduction effectiveness of power grid projects and optimizing the allocation of carbon reduction resources for power grid projects.

[0004] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction of a power grid project, comprising:

[0005] Based on the DEMATEL method, the evaluation indicators of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects are determined, and an evaluation indicator system of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects is constructed according to the evaluation indicators; wherein the secondary indicators of the evaluation indicator system include environmental indicators, economic indicators, energy efficiency indicators, safety indicators, and social indicators;

[0006] The entropy-G2 cross-weighting method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index in the evaluation index system;

[0007] According to the evaluation indicators and their weights in the evaluation indicator system, construct an evaluation model based on time series;

[0008] Acquire time series data corresponding to the evaluation index in the evaluation index system in the power grid project to be evaluated, and use the evaluation model to calculate the evaluation value corresponding to the power grid project to be evaluated;

[0009] The emission reduction level of the power grid project to be evaluated is determined according to the evaluation value, so as to optimize the power grid project to be evaluated according to the emission reduction level.

[0010] Furthermore, the evaluation indexes for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects are determined based on the DEMATEL method, including:

[0011] Obtain an initial indicator set filtered according to the indicator selection principle;

[0012] Based on the initial indicator set, a directed graph of influence relationships between the initial indicators is established to construct an influence relationship matrix corresponding to the influence degree between the indicators;

[0013] The influence relationship matrix is ​​standardized, and a comprehensive influence matrix is ​​calculated based on the standardized influence relationship matrix;

[0014] According to the comprehensive impact matrix, the centrality and net impact of each initial indicator are calculated;

[0015] The initial index of the centrality and the net impact degree being not less than a preset threshold is determined as an evaluation index for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects.

[0016] Furthermore, the entropy-G2 cross-weighting method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index in the evaluation index system, including:

[0017] Based on expert experience, determine the lowest-importance unique indicator in each level, and calculate the importance value of each evaluation indicator according to the entropy value of each evaluation indicator in the same level and the entropy value of the lowest-importance indicator; wherein the evaluation indicators include secondary indicators and tertiary indicators;

[0018] The weight of the evaluation indicator is calculated based on the ratio of the importance value of the evaluation indicator to the sum of the importance values ​​of all evaluation indicators in the level corresponding to the evaluation indicator;

[0019] Multiply the weight of the third-level indicator by the weight of the corresponding second-level indicator to obtain the comprehensive weight of the third-level indicator.

[0020] Furthermore, the method for constructing the evaluation model based on time series includes:

[0021] According to the evaluation indicators in the evaluation indicator system, the corresponding historical sampling data is obtained and standardized in the order of the time of indicator sampling to form historical time series data;

[0022] Performing a stationarity test on the historical time series data, if the historical time series data meets the stationarity test condition, then determining that the historical time series data is a stationary sequence; if the historical time series data does not meet the stationarity test condition, then performing a stationarity process on the historical time series data to obtain a stationary sequence;

[0023] Selecting a time series basic model, and using the stationary series to calculate model parameters, and constructing an initial evaluation model based on the time series;

[0024] Check whether the constructed initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements. If the initial evaluation model does not meet the preset requirements, adjust the model until the initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements, and obtain an evaluation model based on time series to obtain the evaluation value.

[0025] Furthermore, the evaluation model based on time series is an autoregressive model, and the expression of the evaluation model is:

[0026] O(t)=g+W 1 (t)x 1 (t)+W 2 (t)x 2 (t)+…+W N (t)x N (t);

[0027] Among them, O(t) is the evaluation value at time t; g is a constant; W 1 (t), W 2 (t),…,W N (t) is the weight corresponding to each indicator at time t; x 1 (t), x 2 (t), …, x N (t) is the standard value of the indicator at time t.

[0028] Furthermore, the third-level indicators corresponding to the second-level indicators in the evaluation indicator system specifically include:

[0029] The three-level indicators corresponding to the environmental indicators include: carbon dioxide concentration, carbon dioxide concentration growth rate, carbon emission intensity, change in fossil energy consumption, social energy-saving benefits, coal consumption savings, electricity substitution benefits, and electricity savings;

[0030] The three-level indicators corresponding to the economic indicators include: per capita regional production growth value, net profit margin, economic net present value, internal rate of return, dynamic investment payback period, income cost ratio, asset-liability ratio, and proportion of environmental protection investment funds;

[0031] The three-level indicators corresponding to the energy efficiency indicators include: system energy utilization rate, clean energy supply ratio, primary energy utilization rate, clean energy supply rate, and domestic production capacity value ratio;

[0032] The three-level indicators corresponding to the safety indicators include: power supply reliability, system energy supply reliability, peak load change rate, power load fluctuation coefficient, information security protection capability, and power grid maximum load rate;

[0033] The three-level indicators corresponding to the social indicators include: ability to drive employment, energy consumption per unit of GDP, utilization rate of new technologies, potential for new user development, contribution rate to GDP growth, and ability to drive upstream and downstream businesses.

[0034] The embodiment of the present invention further provides a power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation system, comprising:

[0035] An indicator system construction module is used to determine the evaluation indicators of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects based on the DEMATEL method, and to construct an evaluation indicator system of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects according to the evaluation indicators; wherein the secondary indicators of the evaluation indicator system include environmental indicators, economic indicators, energy efficiency indicators, safety indicators, and social indicators;

[0036] An indicator weight calculation module is used to determine the weight of each evaluation indicator in the evaluation indicator system by using the entropy value-G2 cross weighting method;

[0037] An evaluation model building module, used to build an evaluation model based on time series according to the evaluation indicators and their weights in the evaluation indicator system;

[0038] The power grid project evaluation module is used to obtain time series data corresponding to the evaluation indicators in the evaluation indicator system in the power grid project to be evaluated, and use the evaluation model to calculate the evaluation value corresponding to the power grid project to be evaluated; according to the evaluation value, the emission reduction level of the power grid project to be evaluated is determined, so as to optimize the power grid project to be evaluated according to the emission reduction level.

[0039] Furthermore, the evaluation indexes for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects are determined based on the DEMATEL method, including:

[0040] Obtain an initial indicator set filtered according to the indicator selection principle;

[0041] Based on the initial indicator set, a directed graph of influence relationships between the initial indicators is established to construct an influence relationship matrix corresponding to the influence degree between the indicators;

[0042] The influence relationship matrix is ​​standardized, and a comprehensive influence matrix is ​​calculated based on the standardized influence relationship matrix;

[0043] According to the comprehensive impact matrix, the centrality and net impact of each initial indicator are calculated;

[0044] The initial index of the centrality and the net impact degree being not less than a preset threshold is determined as an evaluation index for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects.

[0045] Furthermore, the indicator weight calculation module is specifically used for:

[0046] Based on expert experience, determine the lowest-importance unique indicator in each level, and calculate the importance value of each evaluation indicator according to the entropy value of each evaluation indicator in the same level and the entropy value of the lowest-importance indicator; wherein the evaluation indicators include secondary indicators and tertiary indicators;

[0047] The weight of the evaluation indicator is calculated based on the ratio of the importance value of the evaluation indicator to the sum of the importance values ​​of all evaluation indicators in the level corresponding to the evaluation indicator;

[0048] Multiply the weight of the third-level indicator by the weight of the corresponding second-level indicator to obtain the comprehensive weight of the third-level indicator.

[0049] Furthermore, the evaluation model building module is specifically used for:

[0050] According to the evaluation indicators in the evaluation indicator system, the corresponding historical sampling data is obtained and standardized in the order of the time of indicator sampling to form historical time series data;

[0051] Performing a stationarity test on the historical time series data, if the historical time series data meets the stationarity test condition, then determining that the historical time series data is a stationary sequence; if the historical time series data does not meet the stationarity test condition, then performing a stationarity process on the historical time series data to obtain a stationary sequence;

[0052] Selecting a time series basic model, and using the stationary series to calculate model parameters, and constructing an initial evaluation model based on the time series;

[0053] Check whether the constructed initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements. If the initial evaluation model does not meet the preset requirements, adjust the model until the initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements, and obtain an evaluation model based on time series to obtain the evaluation value.

[0054] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of a power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation method and system provided by the embodiment of the present invention are: by adopting the DEMATEL method to select evaluation indicators, an evaluation index system for power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction covering environmental indicators, economic indicators, energy efficiency indicators, safety indicators and social indicators is constructed, which fully reflects all aspects of the evaluation of the carbon reduction effect of power grid projects and ensures the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the evaluation; by using the entropy-G2 cross-weighting method to calculate the weights of each indicator, the weight influence between levels is studied, which can break through the limitations of the subjective and objective weighting methods, overcome the subjectivity and randomness of the combined weighting coefficients, and improve the accuracy of the evaluation system; by constructing an evaluation model based on time series, the energy conservation and emission reduction effect of power grid projects can be evaluated more comprehensively from the perspective of time series, and the trade-offs and influences between different indicators are fully considered, providing a reliable reference method for seeking the optimization path of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects. The embodiment of the present invention evaluates the emission reduction effect of power grid projects from multiple dimensions, can optimize the allocation of carbon reduction input resources, support the improvement of carbon reduction results of power grid projects, and contribute to the sustainable and healthy development of the energy industry. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0055] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction of a power grid project provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0056] Figure 2 It is a directed graph of the impact relationship of evaluation indicators provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 3 It is a flowchart of a method for constructing an evaluation model based on time series provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 4 It is a structural diagram of a power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation system provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0059] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0060] See also Figure 1 , Figure 1 The present invention provides a flow chart of a method for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction in power grid projects. The method for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction in power grid projects includes:

[0061] S1: Based on the DEMATEL method, determine the evaluation indicators of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects, and construct an evaluation indicator system for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects based on the evaluation indicators; wherein the secondary indicators of the evaluation indicator system include environmental indicators, economic indicators, energy efficiency indicators, safety indicators, and social indicators.

[0062] As one of the optional embodiments, the evaluation index of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid project is determined based on the DEMATEL method, including:

[0063] Obtain an initial indicator set filtered according to the indicator selection principle;

[0064] Based on the initial indicator set, a directed graph of influence relationships between the initial indicators is established to construct an influence relationship matrix corresponding to the influence degree between the indicators;

[0065] The influence relationship matrix is ​​standardized, and a comprehensive influence matrix is ​​calculated based on the standardized influence relationship matrix;

[0066] According to the comprehensive impact matrix, the centrality and net impact of each initial indicator are calculated;

[0067] The initial index of the centrality and the net impact degree being not less than a preset threshold is determined as an evaluation index for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects.

[0068] Specifically, the evaluation indicators of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects are important parameters for measuring the carbon reduction effect of power grid projects. Since the system structure for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects is complex and has many levels, it is necessary to select those dominant indicators that are sensitive, easy to measure and rich in connotation from among the numerous indicators as evaluation indicators.

[0069] Evaluation indicators generally go through two rounds of screening. The first round is to summarize and screen according to the indicator selection principles to obtain the initial indicator set; preferably, the indicator selection principles include: comprehensiveness principle, representativeness principle, accessibility principle, and systematic principle. In the first round of screening, all indicators that may have an impact are screened out as much as possible, and then, based on the first round of screening, a second round of screening is carried out to streamline the initial indicators.

[0070] The second round of indicator screening adopts the DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method. Specifically, first obtain the initial indicator set obtained in the first round of screening: A = {a 1 ,a 2 ,…,a n}, where a represents the initial indicator and n is the total number of initial indicators; then, based on expert evaluation and professional data evaluation, a directed graph of the impact relationship between indicators is initially established to preliminarily examine the mutual impact relationship between different indicators. Figure 2 , Figure 2 It is a directed graph of the impact relationship of evaluation indicators provided by the embodiment of the present invention. In which, the arrow points from the impact indicator to the affected indicator. Based on the complexity of the impact relationship of the graph, a scoring standard is formulated to target the impact indicator a. i Affected indicator a j The impact degree between indicators is quantitatively assigned, and the impact degree assignment standards are as follows:

[0071]

[0072] Among them, p ij Indicates the impact index a i Affected indicator a j Based on the influence degree between indicators according to experts ij The results of pairwise comparisons are used to preliminarily generate the influence relationship matrix P:

[0073]

[0074] Furthermore, the influence relationship matrix P is standardized to obtain the standardized influence relationship matrix

[0075]

[0076] in, is the maximum value of the sum of all rows in P.

[0077] Furthermore, according to the standardized influence relationship matrix The comprehensive impact matrix B is calculated:

[0078]

[0079] Further, according to the comprehensive influence matrix B, the sum Q of each row in the comprehensive influence matrix B is calculated. i And the total sum of each column R j , where the total sum of each row is Q i As the degree of influence of the indicator, the sum of each column R j As the degree of influence of the indicator. Then according to the total Q of each row i And the total sum of each column R j , calculate the centrality and net influence of each indicator, the specific formula is:

[0080]

[0081] Among them, L i is the centrality of the ith index, H i is the net impact of the ith indicator.

[0082] Furthermore, according to the centrality L i and the net impact H i Draw a Cartesian coordinate system to convert the centrality L i Greater than or equal to the preset centrality, and the net influence degree H i The indexes in the area that are greater than or equal to the preset net influence are used as the evaluation indexes obtained in the second round of screening. Preferably, the preset centrality and the preset net influence are both set to 0.8.

[0083] Furthermore, the evaluation indicators determined by the DEMATEL method are used as the third-level indicators of the evaluation index system, and the evaluation index system for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects is constructed based on the five second-level indicators of environmental indicators, economic indicators, energy efficiency indicators, safety indicators, and social indicators.

[0084] As one of the optional embodiments, the third-level indicators corresponding to the second-level indicators in the evaluation indicator system specifically include:

[0085] The three-level indicators corresponding to the environmental indicators include: carbon dioxide concentration, carbon dioxide concentration growth rate, carbon emission intensity, change in fossil energy consumption, social energy-saving benefits, coal consumption savings, electricity substitution benefits, and electricity savings;

[0086] The three-level indicators corresponding to the economic indicators include: per capita regional production growth value, net profit margin, economic net present value, internal rate of return, dynamic investment payback period, income cost ratio, asset-liability ratio, and proportion of environmental protection investment funds;

[0087] The three-level indicators corresponding to the energy efficiency indicators include: system energy utilization rate, clean energy supply ratio, primary energy utilization rate, clean energy supply rate, and domestic production capacity value ratio;

[0088] The three-level indicators corresponding to the safety indicators include: power supply reliability, system energy supply reliability, peak load change rate, power load fluctuation coefficient, information security protection capability, and power grid maximum load rate;

[0089] The three-level indicators corresponding to the social indicators include: ability to drive employment, energy consumption per unit of GDP, utilization rate of new technologies, potential for new user development, contribution rate to GDP growth, and ability to drive upstream and downstream businesses.

[0090] Furthermore, as shown in Table 1, the embodiment of the present invention sets the evaluation criteria of the evaluation index of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects according to the actual development of the power grid and the statistics of relevant indicators, and the standard value of the data corresponding to the indicator can be determined according to the evaluation criteria.

[0091] Table 1 Evaluation index judgment basis table

[0092]

[0093]

[0094]

[0095] S2: The entropy-G2 cross-weighting method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index in the evaluation index system.

[0096] As one of the optional embodiments, the entropy-G2 cross-weighting method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index in the evaluation index system, including:

[0097] Based on expert experience, determine the lowest-importance unique indicator in each level, and calculate the importance value of each evaluation indicator according to the entropy value of each evaluation indicator in the same level and the entropy value of the lowest-importance indicator; wherein the evaluation indicators include secondary indicators and tertiary indicators;

[0098] The weight of the evaluation indicator is calculated based on the ratio of the importance value of the evaluation indicator to the sum of the importance values ​​of all evaluation indicators in the level corresponding to the evaluation indicator;

[0099] Multiply the weight of the third-level indicator by the weight of the corresponding second-level indicator to obtain the comprehensive weight of the third-level indicator.

[0100] Specifically, the weights of the evaluation indicators are calculated hierarchically. The second level consists of m secondary indicators, and the rth tertiary indicator under the kth secondary indicator is expressed as Among them, m k is the total number of third-level indicators under the kth second-level indicator, k = 1,…,m.

[0101] For each level 3 indicator set under the level 2 indicator The experts select the least important unique indicator from the three-level indicator set and record it as Then, the importance value of the indicator is calculated based on the entropy value of the least important indicator and the entropy value of each evaluation indicator:

[0102]

[0103] in, is the importance value of the rth third-level indicator under the kth second-level indicator, is the entropy value of the least important indicator in the three-level indicator set under the k-th secondary indicator, is the entropy value of the rth third-level indicator under the kth second-level indicator.

[0104] Furthermore, we determine the indicators The weight of the third-level indicator set under the kth second-level indicator

[0105]

[0106] in, is the weight of the rth third-level indicator under the kth second-level indicator.

[0107] Similarly, calculate the weights corresponding to the secondary indicators:

[0108]

[0109] Among them, W k is the weight of the kth secondary indicator, a k is the importance value of the kth secondary indicator, It is the sum of the importance values ​​of all secondary indicators.

[0110] Furthermore, the comprehensive weights of the three-level indicators are determined, namely, The weights for the first layer

[0111]

[0112] The embodiment of the present invention adopts the entropy value-G2 cross weighting method to calculate the weights of all evaluation indicators, thereby improving the accuracy of the evaluation system.

[0113] S3: Constructing a time series-based evaluation model according to the evaluation indicators and their weights in the evaluation indicator system.

[0114] As one of the optional embodiments, the method for constructing the evaluation model based on time series includes:

[0115] According to the evaluation indicators in the evaluation indicator system, the corresponding historical sampling data is obtained and standardized in the order of the time of indicator sampling to form historical time series data;

[0116] Performing a stationarity test on the historical time series data, if the historical time series data meets the stationarity test condition, then determining that the historical time series data is a stationary sequence; if the historical time series data does not meet the stationarity test condition, then performing a stationarity process on the historical time series data to obtain a stationary sequence;

[0117] Selecting a time series basic model, and using the stationary series to calculate model parameters, and constructing an initial evaluation model based on the time series;

[0118] Check whether the constructed initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements. If the initial evaluation model does not meet the preset requirements, adjust the model until the initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements, and obtain an evaluation model based on time series to obtain the evaluation value.

[0119] Specifically, according to the evaluation indicators and their corresponding weights obtained in the above steps, a time series model is constructed to calculate the evaluation value of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects, so as to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the carbon reduction effect of power grid projects based on time series.

[0120] For details, please refer to Figure 3 , Figure 3 This is a flow chart of a method for constructing an evaluation model based on time series provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Since the time series model requires data to be arranged regularly according to time before it can be applied, it is necessary to obtain the corresponding historical values ​​and perform standardization processing according to the selected indicators in the order of the time when the indicators were sampled to form historical time series data. Its form is as follows:

[0121] X i (t) = {|x i (1),x i (2),…,x i (N)},t=1,…,N;

[0122] Among them, X i (t) is the time series of the standardized i-th evaluation index; t is time; N represents the length of time. After establishing the historical time series, it is also necessary to determine the stability. The determination criteria are achieved by calculating the variance and covariance. When the two meet the test conditions, the sequence is considered to be a stable sequence and can be applied to the next step. Otherwise, it is necessary to perform a stable process, that is, introduce the difference operator Δ. After obtaining the stable sequence, an evaluation model based on the time series is constructed based on the stable sequence.

[0123] As one of the optional embodiments, the time series-based evaluation model is an autoregressive model, and the expression of the evaluation model is:

[0124] O(t)=g+W 1 (t)x 1 (t)+W 2 (t)x 2 (t)+…+W N (t)x N (t);

[0125] Among them, O(t) is the evaluation value at time t; g is a constant; W 1 (t), W 2 (t),…,W N(t) is the weight corresponding to each indicator at time t; x 1 (t), x 2 (t), …, x N (t) is the standard value of the indicator at time t.

[0126] After the evaluation model is constructed, check whether the model meets the preset requirements. If the model meets the preset requirements, the model construction is completed and used to calculate the evaluation value. If the model does not meet the preset requirements, the model is adjusted and re-tested until the model meets the preset requirements. The constructed time series-based model is obtained for inputting time series data to obtain the corresponding evaluation value.

[0127] S4: obtaining time series data corresponding to the evaluation index in the evaluation index system in the power grid project to be evaluated, and using the evaluation model to calculate the evaluation value corresponding to the power grid project to be evaluated.

[0128] Specifically, the time series data of the power grid project to be evaluated is obtained, input into the constructed evaluation model, and the evaluation model calculates the evaluation value corresponding to the power grid project to be evaluated.

[0129] S5: Determine the emission reduction level of the power grid project to be evaluated according to the evaluation value, so as to optimize the power grid project to be evaluated according to the emission reduction level.

[0130] Specifically, the corresponding emission reduction level is determined according to the value range corresponding to the assessment value. The specific judgment criteria are as follows:

[0131] Level 1: O(t)∈[1,∞), indicating that the project has a good carbon reduction effect;

[0132] Level 2: O(t)∈[0.9,1), indicating that the project has a good carbon reduction effect;

[0133] Level 3: O(t)∈[0.8,0.9), indicating that the carbon reduction effect of the project is average;

[0134] Level 4: O(t)∈[0.7,0.8), indicating that the carbon reduction effect of the project is poor;

[0135] Level 5: O(t)∈[0,0.7), indicating that the carbon reduction effect of the project is very poor.

[0136] Based on the above results, the corresponding carbon reduction effect of the power grid project within the evaluation period can be obtained. According to the evaluation results, the power grid project to be evaluated can be optimized accordingly. The carbon reduction effect of the power grid project during the construction and operation periods can be evaluated, and a quantitative evaluation method for the carbon reduction effect of the project can be formed. The allocation of carbon reduction input resources can be optimized to support the improvement of the carbon reduction effectiveness of the power grid project.

[0137] The embodiment of the present invention selects three existing power grid projects as evaluation objects, and uses the method provided by the embodiment of the present invention to evaluate their carbon emissions over a period of three years to test the applicability of the evaluation method of the present invention.

[0138] First, the DEMATEL method was used to select 15 indicators from the 33 indicators of the original evaluation system as evaluation indicators, namely: CO2 concentration, CO2 concentration growth rate, carbon emission intensity, change in fossil energy consumption, per capita regional production growth value, internal rate of return, dynamic investment payback period, environmental protection investment proportion, system energy utilization rate, clean energy supply proportion, domestic production capacity value proportion, system energy supply reliability, power grid maximum load rate, unit GDP energy consumption, new technology utilization rate. The selected 15 indicators were calculated using the entropy method-G2 cross-weighting method to obtain the corresponding weights. The calculation results of the indicator weights for the first year are shown in Table 2. Taking this as an example, the corresponding weights for three years were calculated.

[0139] Table 2 Weight table of evaluation indicators for the first year

[0140]

[0141] Based on the above weight calculation results, the evaluation value is calculated using the constructed evaluation model, and the results are shown in Table 3.

[0142] Table 3 Power grid project evaluation value table

[0143] time Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 1 year 0.62 0.60 0.63 2 years 0.91 0.77 0.74 3 years 1.24 0.86 0.99

[0144] As can be seen from Table 3, after three years of implementation of emission reduction measures, the carbon emission reduction effects of the three power grid projects were not very different in the early stage, and then the evaluation values ​​all showed an upward trend. Among them, the emission reduction effect of Project 1 has always been in a leading state, and even began to increase significantly in the last two years, rising from a very poor emission reduction effect to a good emission reduction effect; the emission reduction effect evaluation value of Project 2 was close to that of Project 3 in the first two years, and the evaluation value has been increasing at a stable rate within three years, but the final emission reduction effect was only average, while the emission reduction effect of Project 3 reached a good level in the third year, even close to the highest state, so we can focus on the carbon reduction measures of Project 1 and the carbon reduction measures taken by Project 3 in the second year, so as to optimize the power grid project.

[0145] The embodiment of the present invention selects evaluation indicators by adopting the DEMATEL method, constructs an evaluation index system for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects covering environmental indicators, economic indicators, energy efficiency indicators, safety indicators and social indicators, comprehensively reflects all aspects of the evaluation of carbon reduction effects of power grid projects, and ensures the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the evaluation; by using the entropy-G2 cross-weighting method to calculate the weights of each indicator, the weight influence between levels is studied, which can break through the limitations of subjective and objective weighting methods, overcome the subjectivity and randomness of the combined weighting coefficients, and improve the accuracy of the evaluation system; by constructing an evaluation model based on time series, the energy conservation and emission reduction effects of power grid projects can be evaluated more comprehensively from the perspective of time series, fully considering the trade-offs and influences between different indicators, and providing a reliable reference method for seeking the optimal path for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects. The embodiment of the present invention evaluates the emission reduction effect of power grid projects from multiple dimensions, can optimize the allocation of carbon reduction input resources, support the improvement of carbon reduction results of power grid projects, and contribute to the sustainable and healthy development of the energy industry.

[0146] Correspondingly, the present invention also provides a power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation system, which can implement all processes of the power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation method in the above embodiment.

[0147] See also Figure 4 , Figure 4 1 is a schematic diagram of a power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation system provided by an embodiment of the present invention. The power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation system comprises:

[0148] The indicator system construction module 401 is used to determine the evaluation indicators of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects based on the DEMATEL method, and to construct the evaluation indicator system of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects according to the evaluation indicators; wherein the secondary indicators of the evaluation indicator system include environmental indicators, economic indicators, energy efficiency indicators, safety indicators, and social indicators;

[0149] The indicator weight calculation module 402 is used to determine the weight of each evaluation indicator in the evaluation indicator system by using the entropy value-G2 cross weighting method;

[0150] An evaluation model building module 403 is used to build an evaluation model based on time series according to the evaluation indicators and their weights in the evaluation indicator system;

[0151] The power grid project evaluation module 404 is used to obtain the time series data corresponding to the evaluation indicators in the evaluation indicator system in the power grid project to be evaluated, and use the evaluation model to calculate the evaluation value corresponding to the power grid project to be evaluated; according to the evaluation value, determine the emission reduction level of the power grid project to be evaluated, so as to optimize the power grid project to be evaluated according to the emission reduction level.

[0152] Preferably, the evaluation index of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects is determined based on the DEMATEL method, including:

[0153] Obtain an initial indicator set filtered according to the indicator selection principle;

[0154] Based on the initial indicator set, a directed graph of influence relationships between the initial indicators is established to construct an influence relationship matrix corresponding to the influence degree between the indicators;

[0155] The influence relationship matrix is ​​standardized, and a comprehensive influence matrix is ​​calculated based on the standardized influence relationship matrix;

[0156] According to the comprehensive impact matrix, the centrality and net impact of each initial indicator are calculated;

[0157] The initial index of the centrality and the net impact degree being not less than a preset threshold is determined as an evaluation index for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects.

[0158] Preferably, the indicator weight calculation module 402 is specifically used for:

[0159] Based on expert experience, determine the lowest-importance unique indicator in each level, and calculate the importance value of each evaluation indicator according to the entropy value of each evaluation indicator in the same level and the entropy value of the lowest-importance indicator; wherein the evaluation indicators include secondary indicators and tertiary indicators;

[0160] The weight of the evaluation indicator is calculated based on the ratio of the importance value of the evaluation indicator to the sum of the importance values ​​of all evaluation indicators in the level corresponding to the evaluation indicator;

[0161] Multiply the weight of the third-level indicator by the weight of the corresponding second-level indicator to obtain the comprehensive weight of the third-level indicator.

[0162] Preferably, the evaluation model building module 403 is specifically used for:

[0163] According to the evaluation indicators in the evaluation indicator system, the corresponding historical sampling data is obtained and standardized in the order of the time of indicator sampling to form historical time series data;

[0164] Performing a stationarity test on the historical time series data, if the historical time series data meets the stationarity test condition, then determining that the historical time series data is a stationary sequence; if the historical time series data does not meet the stationarity test condition, then performing a stationarity process on the historical time series data to obtain a stationary sequence;

[0165] Selecting a time series basic model, and using the stationary series to calculate model parameters, and constructing an initial evaluation model based on the time series;

[0166] Check whether the constructed initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements. If the initial evaluation model does not meet the preset requirements, adjust the model until the initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements, and obtain an evaluation model based on time series to obtain the evaluation value.

[0167] Preferably, the time series-based evaluation model is an autoregressive model, and the expression of the evaluation model is:

[0168] O(t)=g+W 1 (t)x 1 (t)+W 2 (t)x 2 (t)+…+W N (t)x N (t);

[0169] Among them, O(t) is the evaluation value at time t; g is a constant; W 1 (t), W 2 (t),…,W N (t) is the weight corresponding to each indicator at time t; x 1 (t), x 2 (t), …, x N (t) is the standard value of the indicator at time t.

[0170] Preferably, the third-level indicators corresponding to the second-level indicators in the evaluation indicator system specifically include:

[0171] The three-level indicators corresponding to the environmental indicators include: carbon dioxide concentration, carbon dioxide concentration growth rate, carbon emission intensity, change in fossil energy consumption, social energy-saving benefits, coal consumption savings, electricity substitution benefits, and electricity savings;

[0172] The three-level indicators corresponding to the economic indicators include: per capita regional production growth value, net profit margin, economic net present value, internal rate of return, dynamic investment payback period, income cost ratio, asset-liability ratio, and proportion of environmental protection investment funds;

[0173] The three-level indicators corresponding to the energy efficiency indicators include: system energy utilization rate, clean energy supply ratio, primary energy utilization rate, clean energy supply rate, and domestic production capacity value ratio;

[0174] The three-level indicators corresponding to the safety indicators include: power supply reliability, system energy supply reliability, peak load change rate, power load fluctuation coefficient, information security protection capability, and power grid maximum load rate;

[0175] The three-level indicators corresponding to the social indicators include: ability to drive employment, energy consumption per unit of GDP, utilization rate of new technologies, potential for new user development, contribution rate to GDP growth, and ability to drive upstream and downstream businesses.

[0176] In the specific implementation, the working principle, control process and technical effect achieved by the power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation system provided by the embodiment of the present invention are the same as those of the power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation method in the above embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0177] The beneficial effects of a power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation method and system provided by the embodiment of the present invention are: by adopting the DEMATEL method to select evaluation indicators, an evaluation index system for power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction covering environmental indicators, economic indicators, energy efficiency indicators, safety indicators and social indicators is constructed, which fully reflects all aspects of the evaluation of the carbon reduction effect of power grid projects and ensures the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the evaluation; by using the entropy-G2 cross-weighting method to calculate the weights of each indicator, the weight influence between levels is studied, which can break through the limitations of the subjective and objective weighting method, overcome the subjectivity and randomness of the combined weighting coefficient, and improve the accuracy of the evaluation system; by constructing an evaluation model based on time series, the energy conservation and emission reduction effect of power grid projects can be evaluated more comprehensively from the perspective of time series, and the trade-offs and influences between different indicators are fully considered, providing a reliable reference method for seeking the optimization path of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects. The embodiment of the present invention evaluates the emission reduction effect of power grid projects from multiple dimensions, can optimize the allocation of carbon reduction input resources, support the improvement of carbon reduction results of power grid projects, and contribute to the sustainable and healthy development of the energy industry.

[0178] It should be noted that the system embodiments described above are merely illustrative, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the scheme of this embodiment. Ordinary technicians in this field can understand and implement it without paying creative work.

[0179] The above is a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that a person skilled in the art can make several improvements and modifications without departing from the principle of the present invention. These improvements and modifications are also considered to be within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction in power grid projects, characterized in that: include: Based on the DEMATEL method, the evaluation indicators of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects are determined, and an evaluation indicator system of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects is constructed according to the evaluation indicators; wherein the secondary indicators of the evaluation indicator system include environmental indicators, economic indicators, energy efficiency indicators, safety indicators, and social indicators; The entropy-G2 cross-weighting method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index in the evaluation index system; According to the evaluation indicators and their weights in the evaluation indicator system, construct an evaluation model based on time series; Acquire time series data corresponding to the evaluation index in the evaluation index system in the power grid project to be evaluated, and use the evaluation model to calculate the evaluation value corresponding to the power grid project to be evaluated; The emission reduction level of the power grid project to be evaluated is determined according to the evaluation value, so as to optimize the power grid project to be evaluated according to the emission reduction level.

2. The method for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: The evaluation indexes for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects are determined based on the DEMATEL method, including: Obtain an initial indicator set filtered according to the indicator selection principle; Based on the initial indicator set, a directed graph of influence relationships between the initial indicators is established to construct an influence relationship matrix corresponding to the influence degree between the indicators; The influence relationship matrix is ​​standardized, and a comprehensive influence matrix is ​​calculated based on the standardized influence relationship matrix; According to the comprehensive impact matrix, the centrality and net impact of each initial indicator are calculated; The initial index of the centrality and the net impact degree being not less than a preset threshold is determined as an evaluation index for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects.

3. The method for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: The entropy-G2 cross-weighting method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index in the evaluation index system, including: Based on expert experience, determine the lowest-importance unique indicator in each level, and calculate the importance value of each evaluation indicator according to the entropy value of each evaluation indicator in the same level and the entropy value of the lowest-importance indicator; wherein the evaluation indicators include secondary indicators and tertiary indicators; The weight of the evaluation indicator is calculated based on the ratio of the importance value of the evaluation indicator to the sum of the importance values ​​of all evaluation indicators in the level corresponding to the evaluation indicator; Multiply the weight of the third-level indicator by the weight of the corresponding second-level indicator to obtain the comprehensive weight of the third-level indicator.

4. The method for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method for constructing the evaluation model based on time series includes: According to the evaluation indicators in the evaluation indicator system, the corresponding historical sampling data is obtained and standardized in the order of the time of indicator sampling to form historical time series data; Performing a stationarity test on the historical time series data, if the historical time series data meets the stationarity test condition, then determining that the historical time series data is a stationary sequence; if the historical time series data does not meet the stationarity test condition, then performing a stationarity process on the historical time series data to obtain a stationary sequence; Selecting a time series basic model, and using the stationary series to calculate model parameters, and constructing an initial evaluation model based on the time series; Check whether the constructed initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements. If the initial evaluation model does not meet the preset requirements, adjust the model until the initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements, and obtain an evaluation model based on time series to obtain the evaluation value.

5. The method for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects according to claim 4, characterized in that: The evaluation model based on time series is an autoregressive model, and the expression of the evaluation model is: O(t)=g+W1(t)x1(t)+W2(t)x2(t)+…+W N (t)x N (t); Among them, O(t) is the evaluation value at time t; g is a constant; W1(t), W2(t), …, W N (t) is the weight corresponding to each indicator at time t; x1(t), x2(t),…, x N (t) is the standard value of the indicator at time t.

6. The method for evaluating energy conservation and emission reduction in power grid projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: The third-level indicators corresponding to the second-level indicators in the evaluation indicator system specifically include: The three-level indicators corresponding to the environmental indicators include: carbon dioxide concentration, carbon dioxide concentration growth rate, carbon emission intensity, change in fossil energy consumption, social energy-saving benefits, coal consumption savings, electricity substitution benefits, and electricity savings; The three-level indicators corresponding to the economic indicators include: per capita regional production growth value, net profit margin, economic net present value, internal rate of return, dynamic investment payback period, income cost ratio, asset-liability ratio, and proportion of environmental protection investment funds; The three-level indicators corresponding to the energy efficiency indicators include: system energy utilization rate, clean energy supply ratio, primary energy utilization rate, clean energy supply rate, and domestic production capacity value ratio; The three-level indicators corresponding to the safety indicators include: power supply reliability, system energy supply reliability, peak load change rate, power load fluctuation coefficient, information security protection capability, and power grid maximum load rate; The three-level indicators corresponding to the social indicators include: ability to drive employment, energy consumption per unit of GDP, utilization rate of new technologies, potential for new user development, contribution rate to GDP growth, and ability to drive upstream and downstream businesses.

7. A power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation system, characterized in that: include: An indicator system construction module is used to determine the evaluation indicators of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects based on the DEMATEL method, and to construct an evaluation indicator system of energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects according to the evaluation indicators; wherein the secondary indicators of the evaluation indicator system include environmental indicators, economic indicators, energy efficiency indicators, safety indicators, and social indicators; An indicator weight calculation module is used to determine the weight of each evaluation indicator in the evaluation indicator system by using the entropy value-G2 cross weighting method; An evaluation model building module, used to build an evaluation model based on time series according to the evaluation indicators and their weights in the evaluation indicator system; The power grid project evaluation module is used to obtain time series data corresponding to the evaluation indicators in the evaluation indicator system in the power grid project to be evaluated, and use the evaluation model to calculate the evaluation value corresponding to the power grid project to be evaluated; according to the evaluation value, the emission reduction level of the power grid project to be evaluated is determined, so as to optimize the power grid project to be evaluated according to the emission reduction level.

8. The power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The evaluation indexes for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects are determined based on the DEMATEL method, including: Obtain an initial indicator set filtered according to the indicator selection principle; Based on the initial indicator set, a directed graph of influence relationships between the initial indicators is established to construct an influence relationship matrix corresponding to the influence degree between the indicators; The influence relationship matrix is ​​standardized, and a comprehensive influence matrix is ​​calculated based on the standardized influence relationship matrix; According to the comprehensive impact matrix, the centrality and net impact of each initial indicator are calculated; The initial index of the centrality and the net impact degree being not less than a preset threshold is determined as an evaluation index for energy conservation and emission reduction of power grid projects.

9. The power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The indicator weight calculation module is specifically used for: Based on expert experience, determine the lowest-importance unique indicator in each level, and calculate the importance value of each evaluation indicator according to the entropy value of each evaluation indicator in the same level and the entropy value of the lowest-importance indicator; wherein the evaluation indicators include secondary indicators and tertiary indicators; The weight of the evaluation indicator is calculated based on the ratio of the importance value of the evaluation indicator to the sum of the importance values ​​of all evaluation indicators in the level corresponding to the evaluation indicator; Multiply the weight of the third-level indicator by the weight of the corresponding second-level indicator to obtain the comprehensive weight of the third-level indicator.

10. The power grid project energy conservation and emission reduction evaluation system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The evaluation model building module is specifically used for: According to the evaluation indicators in the evaluation indicator system, the corresponding historical sampling data is obtained and standardized in the order of the time of indicator sampling to form historical time series data; Performing a stationarity test on the historical time series data, if the historical time series data meets the stationarity test condition, then determining that the historical time series data is a stationary sequence; if the historical time series data does not meet the stationarity test condition, then performing a stationarity process on the historical time series data to obtain a stationary sequence; Selecting a time series basic model, and using the stationary series to calculate model parameters, and constructing an initial evaluation model based on the time series; Check whether the constructed initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements. If the initial evaluation model does not meet the preset requirements, adjust the model until the initial evaluation model meets the preset requirements, and obtain an evaluation model based on time series to obtain the evaluation value.

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