Energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of energy system analysis, in particular to an energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining a keyword of an energy product; collecting target parameters of the energy product to obtain consumption data of the life cycle of the energy product, and performing screening processing; transmitting the acquired consumption data to an input-output model to construct a direct consumption matrix; solving the carbon footprint of each energy product by using an input-output balance analysis model; the method comprises the steps of determining whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard or not, drawing a time-energy consumption curve, and secondarily determining whether the life cycle of the single energy product meets the standard or not based on the slope of the curve. And a time-energy consumption curve is drawn, the energy consumption condition is analyzed from the time dimension, and the analysis accuracy is further improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of energy system analysis, and in particular to an energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance. Background Art

[0002] There are many ways to evaluate the performance of an integrated energy system, such as energy efficiency analysis, which evaluates the overall energy utilization efficiency of the system by calculating the energy conversion efficiency of each link in the system; economic analysis, which analyzes the economic benefits of the system by evaluating economic indicators such as the system's investment cost, operating cost, and maintenance cost. Existing technologies combine a newly constructed scoring card model and a combined weight value to evaluate an integrated energy system. The evaluation results have a certain degree of accuracy, but there is a lack of research on evaluation methods for the environmental carbon footprint of various products in the energy system, especially in dealing with the complex interactions between energy products and material flow cycles.

[0003] Chinese Patent Application No.: CN202410355782.4 discloses a performance evaluation method and device for an integrated energy system. This method, on the basis of establishing a PSR model evaluation system based on carbon footprint, constructs a comprehensive evaluation method based on the AHP-CRITIC method and the scorecard model. The invention combines the subjective and objective evaluation results, couples the subjective and objective weights using a dynamic combined weight method, and evaluates the integrated energy system in combination with the newly constructed scorecard model and the combined weight value. The scorecard model constructed by the invention can score the various indicators of the integrated energy system and the system as a whole, and this model is based on the logical analysis of the actual data of the indicators, has absolute objectivity, and is relatively accurate in assigning scores to the indicators. The evaluation results have a certain degree of accuracy, which is conducive to the construction and development of future system projects.

[0004] However, the existing technology still has the following problems: there is a lack of research on evaluation methods for the environmental carbon footprint of various products in the energy system, and the analysis accuracy is low in dealing with the complex interactions between energy products and material flow cycles. Summary of the invention

[0005] To this end, the present invention provides an energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance, so as to overcome the problem of lack of research on evaluation methods for the carbon footprint of various products in the energy system in the prior art, and low analysis accuracy in dealing with complex interactions between energy products and material flow cycles.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides an energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance. It includes:

[0007] Step S1, obtaining keywords of energy products and determining the boundaries of energy products;

[0008] Step S2: collecting target parameters of the energy product based on the determined boundary to obtain consumption data of the energy product during its life cycle, and screening the obtained consumption data;

[0009] Step S3, transmitting the acquired consumption data to the input-output model to construct a direct consumption matrix;

[0010] Step S4, using the input-output balance analysis model to iteratively process the direct consumption matrix to obtain a final consumption matrix to obtain the carbon footprint of each energy product;

[0011] Step S5: determine whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard based on the obtained carbon footprint, draw a time-energy consumption curve, and secondarily determine whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard based on the slope of the curve.

[0012] Furthermore, in step S5, it is determined whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard based on the obtained carbon footprint, wherein:

[0013] When it is initially determined that the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standards, a secondary determination is made based on the time-energy consumption curve to determine whether it meets the standards;

[0014] When determining that the life cycle of an individual energy product does not meet the standards, the reasons for non-compliance are analyzed based on the carbon footprint.

[0015] Furthermore, whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard is determined based on the average value of the slope at each time node of the time-energy consumption curve, wherein:

[0016] When it is determined that the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standard, the collection period is adjusted to the corresponding value based on the slope average value.

[0017] Or, determine that there is a problem with energy conversion and modify the determination criteria based on the average conversion rate of the existing technology.

[0018] Further, the time interval between each adjacent acquisition cycle is reduced based on the slope difference between the slope average value and the first preset slope average value, and the slope difference is inversely proportional to the amount of reduction in the time interval.

[0019] Furthermore, the correction coefficients are determined based on the intervals of each energy conversion rate, and the final correction coefficient α is obtained by weighted summation.

[0020] α=(c1×αi+c2×αi+c3×αi+...+cn×αi) / n,

[0021] Among them, αi is the i-th correction coefficient, c1 is the weight coefficient for the first step, where the weight coefficient refers to the ratio of the expected consumption in this step to the total consumption in the life cycle of the energy product, and n is the total number of processes in the life cycle of the energy product;

[0022] The preset emission amount is corrected to a corresponding value based on the correction coefficient.

[0023] Furthermore, a process-consumption distribution curve is drawn, and the time interval of the collection cycle of a single energy product is divided into several stages according to the life cycle. The variance of the consumption in each stage is calculated, and the reasons why the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standards are determined based on the variance. The reasons include: excessive energy consumption in a single step and problems with data collection.

[0024] Furthermore, the variance of the carbon emissions of each process is increased by a preset interval, and the increase in the variance is proportional to the preset interval.

[0025] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effect of the present invention lies in that the consumption data of the energy product is determined based on the keywords of the energy product, and the consumption data is analyzed by using a direct consumption model, thereby improving the analysis accuracy of the data, drawing a time-energy consumption curve, and analyzing the energy consumption situation from the time dimension, thereby further improving the analysis accuracy.

[0026] Furthermore, the present invention analyzes the cycle of energy products based on the time-energy consumption curve. The present invention analyzes the cycle of energy products based on the time-energy consumption curve. When the average value of the slope of the curve is small, the life cycle of a single energy product is judged to be qualified, and when the slope is large, it is judged that there is a problem with energy conversion, and the judgment standard is revised, thereby further improving the analysis accuracy of the life cycle of energy products.

[0027] Furthermore, in the present invention, the time interval between collection cycles is reduced based on the slope of the curve, the collection frequency is increased, the control accuracy of the data on the energy product is improved, and the analysis accuracy of the life cycle of the energy product is further improved. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0028] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance;

[0029] Figure 2 A flowchart for preliminary determination of whether the life cycle of a single energy product complies with the standard;

[0030] Figure 3 A flow chart for analyzing the life cycle of individual energy products for compliance with the standards;

[0031] Figure 4Flowchart for analyzing the reasons why the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standards. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0032] In order to make the objects and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described below in conjunction with embodiments; it should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the present invention.

[0033] It should be pointed out that the data in this embodiment are obtained by comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the historical data of the system of the present invention in the six months before this determination and the corresponding historical determination results. Before this detection, the system of the present invention comprehensively determines the values ​​of the preset parameter standards for this determination based on the evaluation values ​​of the 37,383 retrieval results detected cumulatively in the first three months. It can be understood by those skilled in the art that the system of the present invention can determine the single parameter mentioned above by selecting the value with the highest proportion as the preset standard parameter according to the data distribution, using weighted summation to use the obtained value as the preset standard parameter, substituting each historical data into a specific formula and using the value obtained by the formula as the preset standard parameter or other selection methods, as long as the system of the present invention can clearly define the different specific situations in the single determination process through the obtained values.

[0034] The preferred embodiments of the present invention are described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood by those skilled in the art that these embodiments are only used to explain the technical principles of the present invention and are not intended to limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0035] It should be noted that, in the description of the present invention, terms such as "up", "down", "left", "right", "inside" and "outside" indicating directions or positional relationships are based on the directions or positional relationships shown in the drawings. This is merely for the convenience of description and does not indicate or imply that the device or element must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation. Therefore, it cannot be understood as a limitation on the present invention.

[0036] In addition, it should be noted that in the description of the present invention, unless otherwise clearly specified and limited, the terms "installed", "connected", and "connected" should be understood in a broad sense, for example, it can be a fixed connection, a detachable connection, or an integral connection; it can be a mechanical connection or an electrical connection; it can be a direct connection, or it can be indirectly connected through an intermediate medium, or it can be the internal communication of two components. For those skilled in the art, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood according to specific circumstances.

[0037] See also Figure 1 As shown, it is a flow chart of the energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance.

[0038] The present invention provides an energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance, comprising:

[0039] Step S1, obtaining keywords of energy products and determining the boundaries of energy products;

[0040] Step S2: collecting target parameters of the energy product based on the determined boundary to obtain consumption data of the energy product during its life cycle, and screening the obtained consumption data;

[0041] Step S3, transmitting the acquired consumption data to the input-output model to construct a direct consumption matrix;

[0042] Step S4, using the input-output balance analysis model to iteratively process the direct consumption matrix to obtain a final consumption matrix to obtain the carbon footprint of each energy product;

[0043] Step S5: determine whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard based on the obtained carbon footprint, draw a time-energy consumption curve, and secondarily determine whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard based on the slope of the curve.

[0044] The present invention determines the consumption data of the energy product based on the keywords of the energy product, adopts a direct consumption model to analyze the consumption data, improves the analysis accuracy of the data, draws a time-energy consumption curve, analyzes the energy consumption from the time dimension, and further improves the analysis accuracy.

[0045] In the manufacturing process of energy products, the production of a certain product is usually interactively coupled with the production of many other energy products. If you want to accurately obtain its carbon footprint, you need to further trace the interactive coupling. For example, the extraction of crude oil and natural gas depends on mining equipment driven by electricity. At the same time, in the process of electricity production, energy products such as diesel are necessary inputs. Furthermore, by tracing back layer by layer, it can be found that most energy products are directly or indirectly related to each other. If the traditional carbon footprint analysis method is used, it is difficult to properly handle the above problems.

[0046] In order to solve the above problems, a new matrix balance analysis method proposed by Sun Boxue et al. [1–4] was comprehensively referred to, and the input-output analysis (I nput-output Analy lys is) proposed by Leont ief [5] was also referred to. The basic principle of its calculation is shown in Formula 1.

[0047] Formula 1 is as follows:

[0048]

[0049] In the formula, represents the total output matrix, represents the direct demand matrix, represents the intermediate demand matrix, Represents the final demand matrix.

[0050] Formula 1 can be transformed into Formula 2 as follows:

[0051]

[0052] If the matrix Reversible, that is If the spectral radius is less than 1, Formula 2 can be transformed into the Leont ief inverse matrix, and Formula 3 is as follows:

[0053]

[0054] First, build a direct demand matrix for the product Combine the product's functional unit matrix to build the final demand matrix The total output matrix can be calculated using formula 3 That is, the final consumption matrix, so as to obtain the real consumption of the product throughout its life cycle. The problem of "cyclic iteration and infinite generation layer" can also be solved. At the same time, according to the IPCC Carbon Emission Factor Manual, the carbon footprint level of the energy system can be calculated.

[0055] According to the China Energy Statistical Yearbook [6], the energy conversion, consumption and output of various industries in China's energy system in a certain accounting year can be systematically obtained. For the problem of energy product symbiosis (for example, multiple products are produced simultaneously during the oil refining process), the present invention adopts an energy-based allocation method. The direct demand matrix of unit energy product production is shown in Table 1.

[0056] The calculation process based on energy distribution is shown in Formula 4, where the average low calorific value of each energy product comes from the "GB / T 2589-2020 General Rules for Calculation of Comprehensive Energy Consumption" [8], and the production data comes from the "China Statistical Yearbook" [7] and the "China Energy Statistical Yearbook" [6].

[0057] Formula 4 is as follows:

[0058]

[0059] Where a i Indicates the energy distribution coefficient of the symbiotic product; LHV i Indicates the low calorific value of the symbiotic product; P i Represents the annual output of the co-product.

[0060] According to the application requirements of the model, the spectral radius of the direct demand matrix is ​​calculated. The spectral radius is less than 1, which meets the application requirements of the model. Formula 3 is used for iterative solution, where the consumption matrix The value is the direct demand matrix table 1; according to the functional unit setting, the final demand matrix The value is the unit matrix I. From this, the final demand matrix of unit energy product production can be calculated, and the carbon footprint level of each energy product can be calculated according to the IPCC Carbon Emission Factor Manual, see Table 2.

[0061]

[0062]

[0063] See also Figure 2 As shown, it is a flowchart for preliminarily determining whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standards.

[0064] Specifically, in step S5, a preliminary determination method is used to determine whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard based on the obtained carbon footprint, wherein:

[0065] The first preliminary determination method is to determine that the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard; the first preliminary determination method satisfies that the carbon footprint is less than or equal to a first preset carbon footprint;

[0066] The second preliminary determination method is to preliminarily determine that the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standard, and to make a secondary determination on whether it meets the standard based on the time-energy consumption curve; the second preliminary determination method satisfies that the carbon footprint is greater than the first preset carbon footprint and less than the second preset carbon footprint;

[0067] The third preliminary determination method is to determine that the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standards, and analyze the reasons for non-compliance based on the carbon footprint; the third preliminary determination method satisfies that the carbon footprint is greater than the second preset carbon footprint.

[0068] In the embodiment of the present invention, the first preset carbon footprint is 2.5 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, and the second preset carbon footprint is 5 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.

[0069] See also Figure 3 As shown, it is a flow chart for analyzing whether the life cycle of a single energy product complies with the standards.

[0070] Specifically, under the second preliminary determination method, whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard is determined based on the average value of the slope at each time node of the time-energy consumption curve, wherein:

[0071] The first determination method is to determine whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard; the first determination method satisfies that the average slope value is less than or equal to a first preset average slope value;

[0072] The second determination method is to determine that the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standard, and adjust the collection period to a corresponding value based on the slope average value; the second determination method satisfies that the slope average value is greater than the first preset slope average value and is less than or equal to the second slope average value;

[0073] The third judgment method is to judge that the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standards and that there are problems with energy conversion, and to modify the judgment criteria based on the average conversion rate of the prior art; the third judgment method satisfies that the slope average value is greater than the second preset slope average value.

[0074] The present invention analyzes the cycle of energy products based on the time-energy consumption curve. When the average value of the slope of the curve is small, the life cycle of a single energy product is determined to be qualified. When the slope is large, it is determined that there is a problem with energy conversion. The judgment standard is revised, thereby further improving the analysis accuracy of the life cycle of energy products.

[0075] Specifically, in the second determination mode, the adjustment mode for the time interval between each adjacent acquisition cycle is determined based on the slope difference between the slope average value and the first preset slope average value, wherein:

[0076] The first adjustment method is to select the first adjustment coefficient α1 to adjust the time interval T to a corresponding value, and set the adjusted time interval T'=α1×T0, where T0 is the initial time interval before adjustment; the first adjustment method satisfies that the slope difference is less than or equal to the preset slope difference;

[0077] The second adjustment method is to select the second adjustment coefficient α2 to adjust the time interval T to a corresponding value, and set the adjusted time interval T'=α2×T0; the second adjustment method satisfies that the slope difference is greater than the preset slope difference.

[0078] In the embodiment of the present invention, the first adjustment coefficient is 0.8, the second adjustment coefficient is 0.75, and the slope difference is 0.7.

[0079] In the present invention, the time interval between collection cycles is reduced based on the slope of the curve, the collection frequency is increased, the control accuracy of the data on the energy product is improved, and the analysis accuracy of the life cycle of the energy product is further improved.

[0080] Specifically, in the third determination mode, the correction coefficients are determined based on the intervals of the energy conversion rates, and the final correction coefficient α is obtained by weighted summation.

[0081] α=(c1×αi+c2×αi+c3×αi+...+cn×αi) / n,

[0082] Among them, αi is the i-th correction coefficient, c1 is the weight coefficient for the first step, where the weight coefficient refers to the ratio of the expected consumption in this step to the total consumption in the life cycle of the energy product, and n is the total number of processes in the life cycle of the energy product;

[0083] The preset emission amount is corrected to a corresponding value based on the correction coefficient.

[0084] See also Figure 4 As shown, it is a flow chart for analyzing the reasons why the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standards.

[0085] Specifically, under the third preliminary determination method, a process-consumption distribution curve is drawn, the time interval of the collection period of a single energy product is divided into several stages according to the life cycle, the variance of the consumption in each stage is calculated, and the determination method of the reason why the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standard is determined based on the variance, wherein:

[0086] The first cause determination method is to determine that a single step has excessive energy consumption; the first cause determination method satisfies that the variance is less than or equal to a preset variance;

[0087] The second cause determination method is to determine that there is a problem with data collection; the second cause determination method satisfies that the variance is greater than the preset variance.

[0088] In the embodiment of the present invention, the preset variance is 23.5.

[0089] Specifically, in the second cause determination method, the preset interval is increased based on the variance of the carbon emissions of each process, and the increase in the preset interval is proportional to the variance.

[0090] So far, the technical solutions of the present invention have been described in conjunction with the preferred embodiments shown in the accompanying drawings. However, it is easy for those skilled in the art to understand that the protection scope of the present invention is obviously not limited to these specific embodiments. Without departing from the principle of the present invention, those skilled in the art can make equivalent changes or substitutions to the relevant technical features, and the technical solutions after these changes or substitutions will fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0091] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. For those skilled in the art, the present invention may have various modifications and variations. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A carbon footprint analysis method for energy systems based on input-output balance, characterized in that: include: Step S1, obtaining keywords of energy products and determining the boundaries of energy products; Step S2: collecting target parameters of the energy product based on the determined boundary to obtain consumption data of the energy product during its life cycle, and screening the obtained consumption data; Step S3, transmitting the acquired consumption data to the input-output model to construct a direct consumption matrix; Step S4, using the input-output balance analysis model to iteratively process the direct consumption matrix to obtain a final consumption matrix to obtain the carbon footprint of each energy product; Step S5: determine whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard based on the obtained carbon footprint, draw a time-energy consumption curve, and secondarily determine whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard based on the slope of the curve.

2. The energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S5, whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard is determined based on the obtained carbon footprint, wherein: When it is initially determined that the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standards, a secondary determination is made based on the time-energy consumption curve to determine whether it meets the standards; When determining that the life cycle of an individual energy product does not meet the standards, the reasons for non-compliance are analyzed based on the carbon footprint.

3. The energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance according to claim 2 is characterized in that: Whether the life cycle of a single energy product meets the standard is determined based on the average value of the slope at each time node of the time-energy consumption curve, wherein: When it is determined that the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standard, the collection period is adjusted to the corresponding value based on the slope average value. Or, determine that there is a problem with energy conversion and modify the determination criteria based on the average conversion rate of the existing technology.

4. The energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The time interval between adjacent acquisition cycles is reduced based on the slope difference between the slope average value and the first preset slope average value, and the slope difference is inversely proportional to the amount of reduction in the time interval.

5. The energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The correction coefficients are determined based on the intervals of each energy conversion rate, and the final correction coefficient α is obtained by weighted summation: α = (c1×αi+c2×αi+c3×αi+...+cn×αi) / n. Among them, αi is the i-th correction coefficient, c1 is the weight coefficient for the first step, where the weight coefficient refers to the ratio of the expected consumption in this step to the total consumption in the life cycle of the energy product, and n is the total number of processes in the life cycle of the energy product; The preset emission amount is corrected to a corresponding value based on the correction coefficient.

6. The energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance according to claim 5 is characterized in that: Draw a process-consumption distribution curve, divide the time interval of the collection cycle of a single energy product into several stages according to the life cycle, calculate the variance of the consumption in each stage, and determine the reasons why the life cycle of a single energy product does not meet the standards based on the variance. The reasons include: excessive energy consumption in a single step and problems with data collection.

7. The energy system carbon footprint analysis method based on input-output balance according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The variance of carbon emissions based on each process increases within a preset interval, and the increase in the variance is proportional to the preset interval.

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