Collapse geological disaster risk evaluation method and system of transformer substation structure damage model

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of geological disaster risk evaluation research, in particular to a collapse geological disaster risk evaluation method and system of a transformer substation structure damage model. The collapsed dangerous rock mass is investigated in detail, the stability is evaluated through a stereographic projection method, and the instability probability is calculated through a Monte Carlo method; fLAC3D and PFC3D are coupled to simulate a collapse dynamic process, and risk evaluation is completed in combination with ArcGIS; establishing a transformer substation electrical facility physical model and a structural damage model; establishing a vulnerability evaluation model based on the collapse rockfall impact strength and the electric facility structure resistance; and performing risk evaluation by adopting a matrix analysis method, and estimating economic loss. The invention further comprises corresponding system implementation. According to the method, by combining geological survey, numerical simulation and structural analysis, comprehensive quantitative evaluation of the collapse disaster risk of the transformer substation is achieved, the accuracy, reliability and pertinence of evaluation are improved, and a scientific basis is provided for disaster prevention and reduction of the transformer substation in the mountainous area.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of geological disaster risk assessment research, and in particular to a method and system for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of a substation structure damage model. Background Art

[0002] Landslide refers to the geological phenomenon that the rock and soil on a steep slope suddenly break away from the parent body under the action of gravity and collapse, roll, and accumulate at the foot of the slope or in the valley. Landslides are a geological disaster that seriously threatens power grid facilities because of their concealed and sudden characteristics. The risk of landslides can reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of the damage capacity of landslides and also indicate the damage to the disaster-bearing body caused by landslides. Landslide risk assessment is considered to be an effective way to reduce the hazards of landslides and is mainly used in the prediction and forecasting of landslide disasters and disaster prevention and mitigation work.

[0003] Collapse risk assessment mainly includes three aspects: collapse hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment of hazard-bearing bodies, and comprehensive risk assessment. In collapse hazard assessment, the probability of instability of dangerous rock masses and the probability of rockfall are usually used to express the possibility of collapse and its disaster-causing scope, and form a hazard assessment; the vulnerability assessment of hazard-bearing bodies often adopts the method of selecting vulnerability assessment indicators, constructing a vulnerability assessment model, and completing the vulnerability assessment in combination with the value of the hazard-bearing body; finally, the "risk = hazard × vulnerability" model is used to complete the substation collapse risk assessment.

[0004] Due to the unique geological conditions, collapse disasters frequently occur in Guizhou Province, showing the characteristics of multiple points, wide areas, strong suddenness and large disaster losses. The existing collapse risk assessment methods lack the consideration of the key issue of the impact of collapsed rocks on substation electrical facilities, which can easily lead to miscalculation and underestimation of risks, thereby misleading disaster prevention, mitigation and emergency rescue work. Therefore, establishing a collapse geological disaster risk assessment method based on the substation structure damage model is a technical problem that needs to be solved urgently. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the problems existing in the prior art, the present invention is proposed.

[0006] Therefore, the problem to be solved by the present invention is that the existing collapse risk assessment method lacks consideration of the key issue of the impact of collapsed rocks on substation electrical facilities, which can easily lead to miscalculation or underestimation of risks, thereby misleading disaster prevention, mitigation and emergency rescue work.

[0007] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0008] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of a substation structural damage model, which includes: surveying the collapse dangerous rock mass, evaluating the stability of the dangerous rock mass by using a stereographic projection graphical method, and calculating the probability of instability by using a Monte Carlo method;

[0009] The collapse process was simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D, the movement parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapsed rocks were obtained, and the hazard assessment was completed by combining ArcGIS.

[0010] Through summarizing, classifying and simulating, the physical model of substation electrical facilities and the structural damage model are established.

[0011] Analyze the impact of rockfall and collapse;

[0012] Based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, a vulnerability assessment model was established to complete the substation vulnerability assessment;

[0013] The matrix analysis method is used to evaluate the geological disaster risks, estimate the direct economic losses, and classify the indirect losses.

[0014] As a preferred solution of the collapse geological disaster risk assessment method of the substation structure damage model of the present invention, the following steps can be adopted to carry out detailed survey of the collapse dangerous rock mass, including the collapse dangerous rock mass and the surrounding area, to find out the engineering geological conditions of the collapse area and the deformation characteristics of the dangerous rock mass, and to analyze the instability and failure mode of the dangerous rock mass in combination with the monitoring data:

[0015] The number and characteristics of structural surfaces of dangerous rock masses were counted, and the stability of dangerous rock masses was qualitatively evaluated using stereographic projection graphic analysis method;

[0016] The structural surface parameters of the dangerous rock mass are determined, and the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass is calculated using the Monte Carlo method based on the instability failure model.

[0017] As a preferred solution of the collapse geological disaster risk assessment method of the substation structure damage model of the present invention, the detailed investigation of the collapse dangerous rock mass and the surrounding area can be carried out by the following sub-steps:

[0018] Conduct detailed surveys of the collapsed rock mass areas to clarify the natural geographical conditions and geological environment background;

[0019] Identify the morphological, structural and deformation characteristics of dangerous rock masses and summarize their disaster-pregnancy conditions;

[0020] With reference to the standard data, dangerous rock masses are classified into the following types: dumping type, swelling type, sliding type, fault type, and tensile crack type;

[0021] Combined with deformation monitoring data, the instability failure mode of dangerous rock mass is analyzed and its evolution model is established;

[0022] The method of counting the number and characteristics of the structural surfaces of the dangerous rock mass and using the stereographic projection graphic analysis method to qualitatively evaluate the stability of the dangerous rock mass comprises the following steps:

[0023] Based on the on-site investigation, the collected structural surface information is counted and sorted, and then put into the drawing software to generate the stereographic projection map;

[0024] According to the stereographic projection diagram, the relationship between joints and layers, as well as the combined intersection lines between joints and the slope projection arc are analyzed to qualitatively evaluate the stability of dangerous rock masses and potential deformation and failure characteristics;

[0025] The method of determining the structural surface parameters of the dangerous rock mass and calculating the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass by using the Monte Carlo method based on the instability failure model comprises the following steps:

[0026] A simplified calculation model of collapsed rock mass is selected to establish a stability coefficient formula, which is specifically expressed as follows:

[0027]

[0028] Among them, K is the stability coefficient; U is the buoyancy of water; Q is the hydrostatic pressure; c is the cohesion of the structural surface; is the internal friction angle of the structural surface; W is the number of dangerous rock masses;

[0029] Based on the influence on the stability of dangerous rock mass, the heavy γ is considered to be treated as a constant, and c, Select as a random variable; Based on the multiplicative linear congruential method, use MATLAB to randomly generate 10,000 groups of c, The value is then processed by standard normal distribution, using the following expression:

[0030]

[0031] X=μ+σx′

[0032] Among them, μ is the mean of the random variable; is the standard deviation of the random variable;

[0033] After processing, c Substitute the value into the stability calculation formula to obtain 10,000 independent groups of stability coefficients. It is defined that when KS≤1, it means that the collapsed dangerous rock mass has been unstable and damaged. The instability and damage probability of the dangerous rock mass is obtained, which is specifically expressed as follows:

[0034] Among them, P is the probability of instability damage, and M is the number of occurrences of instability damage.

[0035] As a preferred solution of the collapse geological disaster risk assessment method of the substation structure damage model of the present invention, wherein: the use of FLAC3D and PFC3D coupling to simulate the collapse process, obtain the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapse rockfall, and complete the risk assessment in combination with ArcGIS includes obtaining the physical and mechanical parameters of the rock and soil body through field and indoor tests based on the field survey results; using FLAC3D and PFC3D coupling to simulate the dynamic process of instability and destruction of the collapse dangerous rock mass, obtain the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapse rockfall, and complete the collapse risk assessment in combination with ArcGIS, which also includes the following steps:

[0036] Based on the field survey results, field and indoor tests were carried out to obtain the physical and mechanical parameters required for numerical simulation of collapse under different rainfall conditions;

[0037] A three-dimensional geological model and numerical model of the collapse area were established, and the dynamic process of unstable failure of dangerous rock mass was simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D to obtain the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapse rockfall.

[0038] Statistically analyze the probability of instability of dangerous rock masses and the probability of arrival of rockfall, and complete the collapse hazard assessment in combination with ArcGIS;

[0039] The method of conducting field and indoor tests based on the field survey results to obtain the physical and mechanical parameters required for numerical simulation of collapse under different rainfall conditions includes the following steps:

[0040] Through on-site investigation, the main material composition and structural characteristics of the dangerous rock mass are determined, and a specific test plan is formulated. Through the basic physical and mechanical tests of the uniaxial compression test, the density, Poisson's ratio, uniaxial compressive strength, and Young's modulus macroscopic parameters of the rock mass are obtained;

[0041] Parameter calibration was carried out based on the PFC3D uniaxial compression test, and the macroscopic parameters were converted into the microscopic parameters of effective modulus, particle stiffness ratio, particle friction coefficient, parallel bond modulus, parallel bond stiffness ratio, normal bond strength, tangential bond strength, and particle internal friction angle required for numerical simulation;

[0042] The method of establishing a three-dimensional geological model and a numerical model of the collapse area, using FLAC3D and PFC3D coupling to simulate the dynamic process of unstable destruction of dangerous rock mass, and obtaining the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapse rockfall includes the following steps:

[0043] The image data of the site was obtained by using the 3D oblique photography technology of UAV, and the point cloud and preliminary contour lines were generated by Pix4dMapper, and the processed contour lines were obtained by using Global Mapper; the 3D geological model was established by using the processed contour lines in Rhino software, and the 3D numerical model was established according to the development characteristics of the dangerous rock mass;

[0044] The simulation parameters under extreme rainfall conditions were selected, and the dynamic process of unstable rock mass failure was coupled by FLAC3D and PFC3D to obtain the results of the movement stage division of rockfall, rockfall movement parameters, and rock block fracture trend.

[0045] The movement trajectory and accumulation position of the collapsed rocks are analyzed to obtain the horizontal and vertical distribution characteristics of the collapsed rocks. The arrival probability of the collapsed rocks at the substation site is calculated by statistics, and the specific expression is as follows:

[0046] P a =N i / N T

[0047] Where Pa is the arrival probability of the collapse rock; Ni is the number of collapse rocks stranded at a certain location; N T is the total number of collapsed rocks;

[0048] The statistical analysis of the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass and the arrival probability of the rockfall is combined with ArcGIS to complete the collapse hazard assessment, which includes the following steps:

[0049] According to the collected data and the actual situation of the substation, the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass and the arrival probability of the collapse and rockfall are graded, and a susceptibility grading table based on the instability probability and a disaster intensity grading table based on the arrival probability are established;

[0050] Based on the Monte Carlo calculation results and numerical simulation results, ArcGIS was used to perform a superposition analysis of the instability probability and the arrival probability, and finally the hazard evaluation of the collapsed dangerous rock mass was obtained. The specific expression is as follows:

[0051] H=P f ×P a

[0052] Among them, H is the danger of collapse of dangerous rock mass; Pf is the probability of instability of dangerous rock mass; Pa is the probability of arrival of collapse rockfall.

[0053] As a preferred solution of the collapse geological disaster risk assessment method of the substation structural damage model of the present invention, wherein: the physical model of the substation electrical facilities including the structural form and material assignment is established through summary classification and simulation trial calculation, and based on the numerical simulation analysis results, the substation electrical facilities structural damage model under the impact of collapse and falling rocks is established, which can adopt the following steps:

[0054] Through summarizing, classifying and numerical simulation, based on the structural and material characteristics of substation facilities, they are transformed into physical and numerical models that are convenient for calculation and analysis;

[0055] Based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, the deformation and damage process of substation electrical facilities under the impact of rockfall is summarized, and a structural damage model of substation electrical facilities is established;

[0056] The process of summarizing, classifying and numerical simulation is to convert the structural characteristics and material characteristics of the substation facilities into physical models and numerical models that are convenient for calculation and analysis, which includes the following steps:

[0057] Summarize and classify the main electrical facilities in the substation according to the factors of facility type, structure, material composition and importance;

[0058] Conduct numerical simulations to estimate the approximate locations of substation electrical facilities impacted by rockfall;

[0059] Based on the above steps, the electrical facilities of substations are divided into three types: main transformers, other outdoor high-voltage electrical equipment, and buildings;

[0060] Rhino and Griddle are used to perform grid difference division between geological bodies and substations. Except for dangerous rock bodies, the geological bodies are roughly divided, and the electrical facilities of substations are finely divided to improve the accuracy and calculation efficiency of numerical simulation.

[0061] Based on the impact location of electrical facilities and the most vulnerable material properties, ceramics, concrete, and masonry are used to represent the material properties of three types of facilities, and finally a collapse-substation numerical model is established;

[0062] The method of summarizing the deformation and damage process of the substation electrical facilities under the impact of rockfall based on the numerical simulation analysis results and establishing a structural damage model of the substation electrical facilities includes the following steps:

[0063] With reference to the norms and industry guidelines, the deformation and damage process of three types of electrical facilities were clarified, and the impact energy distribution of rockfall and the impact stress changes of electrical facilities were selected as the evaluation indicators of their structural damage effects;

[0064] The damage levels of electrical facilities are divided into three levels, and the corresponding classification thresholds are clarified, and finally a structural damage model of substation electrical facilities is established.

[0065] As a preferred solution of the collapse geological disaster risk assessment method of the substation structural damage model of the present invention, wherein: based on the impact strength of the collapse rockfall and the structural resistance of the electrical facilities, a vulnerability assessment model is established; the numerical simulation results and the classification of the electrical facility damage model are compared to complete the substation vulnerability assessment under the collapse impact, which adopts the following steps;

[0066] A vulnerability assessment model is established based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities;

[0067] Compare the numerical simulation results with the classification of the electrical facility damage model to complete the substation vulnerability assessment under the impact of collapse;

[0068] The vulnerability assessment model is established based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, which includes the following steps:

[0069] The impact intensity of rockfall is used to indicate the disaster intensity of landslide disasters, and the structural stress of electrical facilities under impact is used to indicate their disaster resistance capacity.

[0070] Based on the impact intensity distribution of rockfall and the structural damage models of various electrical facilities obtained above, a vulnerability model of electrical facilities in substations is established. It is assumed that when the electrical facilities are intact and can be used normally, their vulnerability is 0; when the electrical facilities reach the damage standard, their vulnerability is 1; when various types of facilities are between deformation and damage, the linear interpolation method is used to quantify the vulnerability, and the specific expression is as follows:

[0071]

[0072] Among them, Vs is the structural vulnerability value, ranging from 0 to 1; I is the disaster intensity; R is the disaster resistance capacity;

[0073] The comparison of numerical simulation results and electrical facility damage model classification to complete the substation vulnerability assessment under collapse impact includes the following steps:

[0074] Based on the quantitative data of vulnerability value, the vulnerability level of substation electrical facilities is classified to facilitate the subsequent vulnerability zoning operation;

[0075] Arrange multiple monitoring points in the collapsed rock particles and different parts of the electrical facilities in the numerical model to record the impact energy of collapsed rock on the electrical facilities and the changes in the structural stress of the electrical facilities under extreme working conditions, collect monitoring data, and select the maximum impact energy and maximum structural stress suffered by different facilities;

[0076] The vulnerability of each electrical facility is represented by two sets of data: maximum impact energy and maximum structural stress. The data are substituted into the vulnerability value formula and calculated according to the corresponding vulnerability classification table to complete the vulnerability evaluation of the substation electrical facilities.

[0077] As a preferred solution of the method for assessing the risk of geological disasters caused by collapse of the substation structure damage model of the present invention, the matrix analysis method is used to assess the risk of geological disasters, estimate direct economic losses, and classify indirect losses, including assessing the risk of geological disasters caused by collapse of the substation by the matrix analysis method based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment; and estimating direct economic losses and classifying indirect economic losses based on the assessment results, including the following steps:

[0078] Based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment, matrix analysis method is used to evaluate the risk of substation collapse geological disasters;

[0079] Based on the evaluation results, estimate the direct economic losses and classify the indirect economic losses;

[0080] Among them, the matrix analysis method is used to conduct substation collapse geological disaster risk assessment based on the hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment results, which includes the following steps:

[0081] The risk assessment of power station collapse geological disasters is based on the evaluation results of hazard and vulnerability, which is a concentrated reflection of the natural and social attributes of collapse. The specific expression is as follows:

[0082] R=H×V

[0083] Among them, R is the risk of substation collapse; H is the danger of collapse; V is the vulnerability of substation;

[0084] According to the results of hazard and vulnerability, matrix analysis is carried out to obtain the risk of substation collapse geological disaster;

[0085] Using ArcGIS overlay analysis, we obtained the risk assessment zoning;

[0086] The direct economic losses are estimated based on the evaluation results, and the indirect economic losses are classified, which includes the following steps:

[0087] According to the standards and on-site conditions, the economic value of each electrical facility is calculated, and combined with the results of vulnerability calculation, the direct economic loss of the substation under the collapse is estimated. The specific expression is as follows:

[0088] F=∑(V i ×F i )

[0089] Among them, F is the total direct economic loss of the substation under the collapse disaster; Vi is the structural vulnerability value of a single device; Fi is the economic value of a single device;

[0090] The vulnerability and social attributes of collapse require consideration of not only the economic losses of the substation itself, but also its indirect impact on the power grid system;

[0091] With reference to the power grid system specifications and standards, the factors affecting the importance of substations are divided into: single power supply line substations, first and second level power event equipment classification, important user power supply substations, guaranteed power grid, and key important substations. The important user power supply substations include industrial power supply substations and railway power supply substations;

[0092] Using the AHP method, the important weights of the influencing factors are calculated, and the specific weights and rankings can be used to construct a comprehensive weight calculation table for substations;

[0093] The importance of substations is graded according to their weights to indicate their indirect impact on the economy and society. The specific classification can be constructed by constructing a substation importance classification table.

[0094] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a collapse geological disaster risk assessment system for a substation structural damage model, which includes a data survey module, which uses a stereographic projection graphic method to assess the stability of the dangerous rock mass by surveying the collapsed dangerous rock mass, and uses a Monte Carlo method to calculate the probability of instability;

[0095] The simulation module uses FLAC3D and PFC3D to couple and simulate the collapse process, obtain the movement parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapsed rocks, and complete the hazard assessment in combination with ArcGIS;

[0096] The construction module establishes the physical model of the substation electrical facilities and the structural damage model through summarizing, classifying and simulating calculations, and analyzes the impact of rockfall and collapse;

[0097] The classification module establishes a vulnerability assessment model based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities to complete the substation vulnerability assessment;

[0098] The evaluation module uses matrix analysis to evaluate geological disaster risks, estimate direct economic losses, and classify indirect losses.

[0099] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, wherein: when the computer program instructions are executed by the processor, the steps of the method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of the substation structure damage model as described in the first aspect of the present invention are implemented.

[0100] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein: when the computer program instructions are executed by a processor, the steps of the method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of the substation structure damage model as described in the first aspect of the present invention are implemented.

[0101] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: the present invention is based on the results of numerical simulation based on dynamic processes, slope stability calculation model, dangerous rock mass destruction probability calculation based on Monte Carlo method, and vulnerability evaluation based on substation electrical facility structural damage model, and adopts matrix analysis method to establish a collapse risk evaluation model.

[0102] The feasibility and rationality of the numerical simulation of a landslide-aggravated substation, the calculation model of the probability of dangerous rock mass destruction, the deformation and destruction model of substation electrical facilities under impact and the key technologies adopted in the present invention have been verified, and the landslide risk assessment considering the substation structure damage model has been realized, enriching the types of research methods for landslide risks in mountainous areas with disaster concurrency characteristics.

[0103] The invention has a reasonable concept and a simple operation process, and the collapse risk assessment results can provide a scientific basis for geological disaster prevention, mitigation and emergency rescue work in mountainous areas. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0104] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0105] Figure 1 Flow chart of the collapse geological hazard risk assessment method for the substation structure damage model;

[0106] Figure 2 Computer equipment diagram for the collapse geological hazard risk assessment method for the substation structure damage model;

[0107] Figure 3 A bird's-eye view of the site of the embodiment of the collapse geological disaster risk assessment method for the substation structure damage model;

[0108] Figure 4 An engineering geological profile diagram of an embodiment of a method for assessing the risk of collapse geological hazards of a substation structure damage model;

[0109] Figure 5 An embodiment of a method for assessing the risk of collapse geological hazards for a substation structure damage model is provided with an accelerometer and rainfall monitoring data graph;

[0110] Figure 6 The instability and damage evolution pattern diagram of the embodiment of the collapse geological disaster risk assessment method for the substation structure damage model;

[0111] Figure 7The simplified calculation model diagram of sliding-type collapse dangerous rock mass is an embodiment of the collapse geological disaster risk assessment method for the substation structure damage model;

[0112] Figure 8 It is a numerical calculation model diagram of an embodiment of a method for risk assessment of collapse geological disasters of a substation structure damage model;

[0113] Fig. 9 A diagram of the movement phases of collapse and rockfall for an embodiment of a method for risk assessment of collapse geological hazards for a substation structure damage model;

[0114] Fig.10 A horizontal distribution characteristic diagram of rockfall collapse in accordance with an embodiment of a method for risk assessment of geological collapse hazards of a substation structure damage model;

[0115] Fig.11 A vertical distribution characteristic diagram of rockfall collapse in accordance with an embodiment of a method for risk assessment of geological collapse hazards of a substation structure damage model;

[0116] Fig.12 A collapse hazard zoning map of an embodiment of a collapse geological disaster risk assessment method for a substation structure damage model;

[0117] Fig.13 A classification diagram of substation facilities for an embodiment of a method for assessing the risk of collapse geological hazards of a substation structure damage model;

[0118] Fig.14 The maximum impact energy distribution diagram of collapse for an embodiment of a collapse geological disaster risk assessment method for a substation structural damage model;

[0119] Fig.15 The embodiment of the collapse geological disaster risk assessment method for the substation structure damage model is a collapse rockfall impact characteristic diagram;

[0120] Fig.16 An embodiment of a method for assessing the risk of collapse geological hazards of a substation structure damage model is provided; a substation vulnerability zoning map;

[0121] Fig.17 The invention provides a substation collapse hazard risk zoning map for an embodiment of a method for assessing the risk of geological collapse hazards based on a substation structural damage model. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0122] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the specific implementation methods of the present invention are described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0123] In the following description, many specific details are set forth to facilitate a full understanding of the present invention, but the present invention may also be implemented in other ways different from those described herein, and those skilled in the art may make similar generalizations without violating the connotation of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0124] Secondly, the term "one embodiment" or "embodiment" as used herein refers to a specific feature, structure, or characteristic that may be included in at least one implementation of the present invention. The term "in one embodiment" that appears in different places in this specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, nor is it a separate or selective embodiment that is mutually exclusive with other embodiments.

[0125] Example 1

[0126] Reference Figure 1-2 , which is the first embodiment of the present invention, and provides a method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of a substation structure damage model, comprising:

[0127] S100: Conduct detailed surveys on the collapsed dangerous rock mass and nearby areas to identify the engineering geological conditions of the collapsed area, the deformation characteristics of the dangerous rock mass and the instability failure mode. Based on the structural surface characteristics, use the stereographic projection method to qualitatively evaluate the stability of the dangerous rock mass, determine the instability failure model and structural surface parameters, and use the Monte Carlo method to calculate the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass.

[0128] Conduct a detailed survey of the collapsed dangerous rock mass and the surrounding areas to identify the engineering geological conditions of the collapsed area and the deformation characteristics of the dangerous rock mass, and analyze the instability and failure mode of the dangerous rock mass in combination with the monitoring data. The following steps can be taken:

[0129] S101: Count the number and characteristics of the structural surfaces of the dangerous rock mass, and use the stereographic projection graphic analysis method to qualitatively evaluate the stability of the dangerous rock mass;

[0130] S102: Determine the structural surface parameters of the dangerous rock mass, and calculate the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass using the Monte Carlo method based on the instability failure model.

[0131] S103: Conduct detailed investigation on the collapsed dangerous rock mass and nearby areas, which can be done by the following sub-steps:

[0132] Conduct detailed surveys of the collapsed rock mass areas to clarify the natural geographical conditions and geological environment background;

[0133] Identify the morphological, structural and deformation characteristics of dangerous rock masses and summarize their disaster-pregnancy conditions;

[0134] With reference to norms and standards, dangerous rock masses are classified into the following types: dumping type, swelling type, sliding type, fault type, and tensile crack type;

[0135] Combined with deformation monitoring data, the instability failure mode of dangerous rock mass is analyzed and its evolution model is established;

[0136] Among them, the number and characteristics of the structural surfaces of the dangerous rock mass are counted, and the stability of the dangerous rock mass is qualitatively evaluated by using the stereographic projection graphic analysis method, which includes the following steps:

[0137] Based on the on-site investigation, the collected structural surface information is counted and sorted, and then put into the drawing software to generate the stereographic projection map;

[0138] According to the stereographic projection diagram, the relationship between joints and layers, as well as the combined intersection lines between joints and the slope projection arc are analyzed to qualitatively evaluate the stability of dangerous rock masses and potential deformation and failure characteristics;

[0139] The structural surface parameters of the dangerous rock mass are determined, and the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass is calculated by using the Monte Carlo method based on the instability failure model, which includes the following steps:

[0140] A simplified calculation model of collapsed rock mass is selected to establish a stability coefficient formula, which is specifically expressed as follows:

[0141]

[0142] Among them, K is the stability coefficient; U is the buoyancy of water; Q is the hydrostatic pressure; c is the cohesion of the structural surface; is the internal friction angle of the structural surface; W is the number of dangerous rock masses;

[0143] Based on the influence on the stability of dangerous rock mass, the heavy γ is considered to be treated as a constant, and c, Select as a random variable; Based on the multiplicative linear congruential method, use MATLAB to randomly generate 10,000 groups of c, The value is then processed by standard normal distribution, using the following expression:

[0144]

[0145] X=μ+σx′

[0146] Among them, μ is the mean of the random variable; is the standard deviation of the random variable;

[0147] After processing, c Substitute the value into the stability calculation formula to obtain 10,000 independent groups of stability coefficients. It is defined that when KS≤1, it means that the collapsed dangerous rock mass has been unstable and damaged. The instability and damage probability of the dangerous rock mass is obtained, which is specifically expressed as follows:

[0148]

[0149] Among them, P is the probability of instability damage, and M is the number of occurrences of instability damage.

[0150] S200: Based on the results of field investigation, the physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil are obtained through field and indoor tests. The dynamic process of instability and failure of the collapsed rock mass is simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D. The motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapsed rockfall are obtained, and the collapse hazard assessment is completed in combination with ArcGIS.

[0151] S201: Based on the results of field investigation, the physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil are obtained through field and indoor tests. The dynamic process of instability and destruction of the collapsed rock mass is simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D, and the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapsed rock are obtained. The collapse hazard assessment is completed in combination with ArcGIS, which also includes the following steps:

[0152] Based on the field survey results, field and indoor tests were carried out to obtain the physical and mechanical parameters required for numerical simulation of collapse under different rainfall conditions;

[0153] A three-dimensional geological model and numerical model of the collapse area were established, and the dynamic process of unstable failure of dangerous rock mass was simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D to obtain the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapse rockfall.

[0154] Statistically analyze the probability of instability of dangerous rock masses and the probability of arrival of rockfall, and complete the collapse hazard assessment in combination with ArcGIS;

[0155] Among them, based on the field survey results, field and indoor tests are carried out to obtain the physical and mechanical parameters required for numerical simulation of collapse under different rainfall conditions, which includes the following steps:

[0156] Through on-site investigation, the main material composition and structural characteristics of the dangerous rock mass are determined, and a specific test plan is formulated. Through basic physical and mechanical tests such as uniaxial compression tests, macroscopic parameters such as density, Poisson's ratio, uniaxial compressive strength, and Young's modulus of the rock mass are obtained;

[0157] Parameter calibration was carried out based on the PFC3D uniaxial compression test to convert the macroscopic parameters into microscopic parameters such as effective modulus, particle stiffness ratio, particle friction coefficient, parallel bond modulus, parallel bond stiffness ratio, normal bond strength, tangential bond strength, particle internal friction angle, etc. required for numerical simulation;

[0158] Among them, a three-dimensional geological model and numerical model of the collapse area are established, and the dynamic process of unstable destruction of dangerous rock mass is simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D to obtain the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapse rockfall, which includes the following steps:

[0159] The image data of the site was obtained by using the 3D oblique photography technology of UAV, and the point cloud and preliminary contour lines were generated by Pix4dMapper, and the processed contour lines were obtained by using Global Mapper; the 3D geological model was established by using the processed contour lines in Rhino software, and the 3D numerical model was established according to the development characteristics of the dangerous rock mass;

[0160] By selecting simulation parameters under extreme rainfall conditions and using FLAC3D and PFC3D to couple the dynamic process of unstable rock mass failure, we can obtain the movement stage division of rockfall, rockfall movement parameters, rock block fracture trend and other results.

[0161] The movement trajectory and accumulation position of the collapsed rocks are analyzed to obtain the horizontal and vertical distribution characteristics of the collapsed rocks. The arrival probability of the collapsed rocks at the substation site is calculated by statistics, and the specific expression is as follows:

[0162] P a =N i / N T

[0163] Where Pa is the arrival probability of the collapse rock; Ni is the number of collapse rocks stranded at a certain location; N T is the total number of collapsed rocks;

[0164] Among them, the instability probability of dangerous rock mass and the arrival probability of rockfall are statistically analyzed, and the collapse hazard assessment is completed in combination with ArcGIS, which includes the following steps:

[0165] According to the collected data and the actual situation of the substation, the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass and the arrival probability of the collapse and rockfall are graded, and a susceptibility grading table based on the instability probability and a disaster intensity grading table based on the arrival probability are established;

[0166] Based on the Monte Carlo calculation results and numerical simulation results, ArcGIS was used to perform a superposition analysis of the instability probability and the arrival probability, and finally the hazard evaluation of the collapsed dangerous rock mass was obtained. The specific expression is as follows:

[0167] H=P f ×P a

[0168] Among them, H is the danger of collapse of dangerous rock mass; Pf is the probability of instability of dangerous rock mass; Pa is the probability of arrival of collapse rockfall.

[0169] S300: Through summary, classification and simulation calculation, a physical model of substation electrical facilities including structural form and material assignment is established. Based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, a structural damage model of substation electrical facilities under the impact of landslide and rockfall is established;

[0170] S301: By summarizing, classifying and simulating, a physical model of the substation electrical facilities including structural forms and material assignments is established. Based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, a structural damage model of the substation electrical facilities under the impact of rockfall is established. The following steps can be used:

[0171] Through summarizing, classifying and numerical simulation, based on the structural and material characteristics of substation facilities, they are transformed into physical and numerical models that are convenient for calculation and analysis;

[0172] Based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, the deformation and damage process of substation electrical facilities under the impact of rockfall is summarized, and a structural damage model of substation electrical facilities is established;

[0173] Among them, through summarizing, classifying and numerical simulation, based on the structural characteristics and material characteristics of the substation facilities, they are converted into physical models and numerical models that are convenient for calculation and analysis, which includes the following steps:

[0174] Summarize and classify the main electrical facilities in the substation according to factors such as facility type, structural form, material composition and importance;

[0175] Conduct numerical simulations to estimate the approximate locations of substation electrical facilities impacted by rockfall;

[0176] Based on the above steps, the electrical facilities of substations are divided into three types: main transformers, other outdoor high-voltage electrical equipment, and buildings;

[0177] Rhino and Griddle are used to perform grid difference division between geological bodies and substations. Except for dangerous rock bodies, the geological bodies are roughly divided, and the electrical facilities of substations are finely divided to improve the accuracy and calculation efficiency of numerical simulation.

[0178] Based on the impact location of electrical facilities and the most vulnerable material properties, ceramics, concrete, and masonry are used to represent the material properties of three types of facilities, and finally a collapse-substation numerical model is established;

[0179] Among them, based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, the deformation and damage process of substation electrical facilities under the impact of rockfall is summarized, and the structural damage model of substation electrical facilities is established, which includes the following steps:

[0180] With reference to the norms and industry guidelines, the deformation and damage process of three types of electrical facilities were clarified, and the impact energy distribution of rockfall and the impact stress changes of electrical facilities were selected as the evaluation indicators of their structural damage effects;

[0181] The damage levels of electrical facilities are divided into three levels, and the corresponding classification thresholds are clarified, and finally a structural damage model of substation electrical facilities is established.

[0182] S400: Based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, a vulnerability assessment model is established, and the numerical simulation results are compared with the classification of electrical facility damage models to complete the vulnerability assessment of substations under the impact of rockfall;

[0183] S401: Based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, a vulnerability assessment model is established; the numerical simulation results are compared with the classification of the electrical facility damage model to complete the substation vulnerability assessment under the impact of rockfall, which adopts the following steps;

[0184] A vulnerability assessment model is established based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities;

[0185] Compare the numerical simulation results with the classification of the electrical facility damage model to complete the substation vulnerability assessment under the impact of collapse;

[0186] Among them, based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, a vulnerability assessment model is established, which includes the following steps:

[0187] The impact intensity of rockfall is used to indicate the disaster intensity of landslide disasters, and the structural stress of electrical facilities under impact is used to indicate their disaster resistance capacity.

[0188] Based on the impact intensity distribution of rockfall and the structural damage models of various electrical facilities obtained above, a vulnerability model of electrical facilities in substations is established. It is assumed that when the electrical facilities are intact and can be used normally, their vulnerability is 0; when the electrical facilities reach the damage standard, their vulnerability is 1; when various types of facilities are between deformation and damage, the linear interpolation method is used to quantify the vulnerability, and the specific expression is as follows:

[0189]

[0190] Among them, Vs is the structural vulnerability value, ranging from 0 to 1; I is the disaster intensity; R is the disaster resistance capacity;

[0191] Comparing the numerical simulation results with the classification of the electrical facility damage model, the substation vulnerability assessment under the impact of collapse is completed, which includes the following steps:

[0192] Based on the quantitative data of vulnerability value, the vulnerability level of substation electrical facilities is classified to facilitate the subsequent vulnerability zoning operation;

[0193] Arrange multiple monitoring points in the collapsed rock particles and different parts of the electrical facilities in the numerical model to record the impact energy of collapsed rock on the electrical facilities and the changes in the structural stress of the electrical facilities under extreme working conditions, collect monitoring data, and select the maximum impact energy and maximum structural stress suffered by different facilities;

[0194] The vulnerability of each electrical facility is represented by two sets of data: maximum impact energy and maximum structural stress. The data are substituted into the vulnerability value formula and calculated according to the corresponding vulnerability classification table to complete the vulnerability evaluation of the substation electrical facilities.

[0195] S500: Based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment, the matrix analysis method is used to conduct risk assessment of substation collapse geological disasters. Based on the evaluation results, the direct economic losses are estimated and the indirect economic losses are graded.

[0196] S501: Based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment, the matrix analysis method is used to conduct risk assessment of substation collapse geological disasters; based on the assessment results, direct economic losses are estimated and indirect economic losses are graded, which includes the following steps:

[0197] Based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment, matrix analysis method is used to evaluate the risk of substation collapse geological disasters;

[0198] Based on the evaluation results, estimate the direct economic losses and classify the indirect economic losses;

[0199] Among them, based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment, the matrix analysis method is used to conduct substation collapse geological disaster risk assessment, which includes the following steps:

[0200] The risk assessment of power station collapse geological disasters is based on the evaluation results of hazard and vulnerability, which is a concentrated reflection of the natural and social attributes of collapse. The specific expression is as follows:

[0201] R=H×V

[0202] Among them, R is the risk of substation collapse; H is the danger of collapse; V is the vulnerability of substation;

[0203] According to the results of hazard and vulnerability, matrix analysis is carried out to obtain the risk of substation collapse geological disaster;

[0204] Using ArcGIS overlay analysis, we obtained the risk assessment zoning;

[0205] Among them, according to the evaluation results, the direct economic losses are estimated and the indirect economic losses are classified, which includes the following steps:

[0206] According to the standards and on-site conditions, the economic value of each electrical facility is calculated, and combined with the results of vulnerability calculation, the direct economic loss of the substation under the collapse is estimated. The specific expression is as follows:

[0207] F=∑(V i ×F i )

[0208] Among them, F is the total direct economic loss of the substation under the collapse disaster; Vi is the structural vulnerability value of a single device; Fi is the economic value of a single device;

[0209] The vulnerability and social attributes of collapse require consideration of not only the economic losses of the substation itself, but also its indirect impact on the power grid system;

[0210] With reference to the power grid system specifications and standards, the factors affecting the importance of substations are divided into: single power supply line substations, first and second level power event equipment classification, important user power supply substations, guaranteed power grid, key and important substations. Important user power supply substations include industrial power supply substations and railway power supply substations.

[0211] Using the AHP method, the important weights of the influencing factors are calculated, and the specific weights and rankings can be used to construct a comprehensive weight calculation table for substations;

[0212] The importance of substations is graded according to their weights to indicate their indirect impact on the economy and society. The specific classification can be constructed by constructing a substation importance classification table.

[0213] Furthermore, this embodiment also provides a collapse geological disaster risk assessment system for a substation structure damage model, comprising:

[0214] The data survey module conducts detailed surveys on the collapsed dangerous rock mass and nearby areas, identifies the engineering geological conditions of the collapsed area, the deformation characteristics of the dangerous rock mass and the instability failure mode, uses the stereographic projection method to qualitatively evaluate the stability of the dangerous rock mass based on the structural surface characteristics, determines the instability failure model and structural surface parameters, and uses the Monte Carlo method to calculate the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass;

[0215] The simulation module, based on the field survey results, obtains the physical and mechanical parameters of the rock and soil through on-site and indoor tests, uses FLAC3D and PFC3D coupling to simulate the dynamic process of the collapse of the dangerous rock mass, obtains the movement parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapse rock, and completes the collapse hazard assessment in combination with ArcGIS;

[0216] The construction module establishes a physical model of the substation electrical facilities including structural form and material assignment through summary, classification and simulation calculation. Based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, a structural damage model of the substation electrical facilities under the impact of landslide and rockfall is established;

[0217] The classification module establishes a vulnerability assessment model based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, compares the numerical simulation results with the classification of electrical facility damage models, and completes the vulnerability assessment of substations under the impact of collapse;

[0218] The evaluation module uses matrix analysis method to evaluate the risk of substation collapse geological disasters based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment. According to the evaluation results, direct economic losses are estimated and indirect economic losses are classified.

[0219] This embodiment also provides a computer device, which is suitable for the case of a collapse geological disaster risk assessment method for a substation structure damage model, and includes a memory and a processor; the memory is used to store computer executable instructions, and the processor is used to execute computer executable instructions to implement the collapse geological disaster risk assessment method for a substation structure damage model as proposed in the above embodiment.

[0220] The computer device may be a terminal, and the computer device includes a processor, a memory, a communication interface, a display screen and an input device connected via a system bus. The processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The communication interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal in a wired or wireless manner, and the wireless manner can be achieved through WIFI, an operator network, NFC (near field communication) or other technologies. The display screen of the computer device may be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the input device of the computer device may be a touch layer covering the display screen, or a key, trackball or touchpad provided on the housing of the computer device, or an external keyboard, touchpad or mouse, etc.

[0221] This embodiment also provides a storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the method for assessing the risk of geological collapse disasters based on a substation structure damage model as proposed in the above embodiment is implemented.

[0222] In summary, by conducting detailed investigation and stability evaluation of the collapsed dangerous rock mass and calculating the instability probability using the Monte Carlo method, a quantitative assessment of the instability possibility of the dangerous rock mass was achieved. This provides important input parameters for subsequent risk assessment and improves the accuracy of the assessment.

[0223] The dynamic process of collapse was simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D, and the parameters and distribution characteristics of rockfall motion were obtained, and the hazard assessment was completed in combination with ArcGIS. This method takes into account the dynamic characteristics of the collapse process, which is closer to the actual situation than the static analysis method and improves the reliability of hazard assessment.

[0224] A physical model of the substation electrical facilities including structural form and material properties was established, and a structural damage model was constructed based on it. This step takes into account the characteristics of different electrical facilities, making the subsequent vulnerability assessment more targeted and the evaluation results more accurate.

[0225] Based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, a vulnerability assessment model was established to complete the substation vulnerability assessment. This method quantitatively compares the disaster intensity of collapse disasters with the disaster resistance of substation facilities, making the vulnerability assessment more scientific and reasonable.

[0226] The matrix analysis method is used to conduct risk assessment and estimate direct and indirect economic losses. This comprehensive assessment method takes into account the natural and social attributes of landslide disasters, making the risk assessment results more comprehensive and providing a more reliable basis for decision-making.

[0227] The accuracy and reliability of risk assessment are improved. By introducing dynamic simulation and structural damage model, the assessment results are closer to the actual situation.

[0228] The quantification of risk assessment has been achieved. From the probability of dangerous rock mass instability to the estimation of economic losses, the entire process adopts a quantitative method, providing a more intuitive basis for decision-making.

[0229] The pertinence of the evaluation method is enhanced. By establishing a physical model and damage model for substation electrical facilities, the evaluation results are more in line with the actual situation of the substation.

[0230] Improves the comprehensiveness of the evaluation. Not only direct economic losses are taken into account, but also indirect losses such as the impact of substations on the power grid system, making the evaluation results more comprehensive.

[0231] Example 2

[0232] Reference Figure 3 - Fig.17 , which is the second embodiment of the present invention, and this embodiment provides a method for assessing the risk of geological collapse disasters of a substation structure damage model. In order to verify the beneficial effects of the present invention, scientific demonstration is carried out through economic benefit calculation and simulation experiments.

[0233] To better explain the present invention, the following is a further description of the collapsed dangerous rock mass of Qixing Mountain and the 110kV Shabaobao substation in combination with the embodiment:

[0234] According to the on-site investigation, the area of ​​the dangerous rock mass in the Qixing Mountain collapse is high and steep, with strong weathering and developed joints and fissures, forming two dangerous rock masses. WY1 is located in the middle and upper part of the slope, with a volume of about 240m 3 ; WY2 is located about 10m below WY1 and has a volume of about 75m 3, the 110kV Shabaobao substation is located about 50m below WY2. The main slope of the mountain is 275°, the rock formation is 285°∠65°, J1: 73°∠82°, J2: 353°∠83°. Its potential instability failure mode is sliding, which is affected by disaster-prone conditions such as topography, rock formation structure, rainfall, and plant root splitting. Its slope structure is a forward slope, cut by two sets of joint surfaces. There are many tensile cracks developed in the rear edge and middle part of the dangerous rock mass, with a strike of 320°~350°, and there is a tendency to penetrate downward to form a shear zone. When the shear strength of the rock mass is less than the gravity component of the rock mass, it is easy to slip and become unstable along the main control structure surface under the induction of adverse factors such as rainfall.

[0235] S100: Conduct detailed surveys on the collapsed dangerous rock mass and nearby areas to identify the engineering geological conditions of the collapsed area, the deformation characteristics of the dangerous rock mass and the instability failure mode. Based on the structural surface characteristics, use the stereographic projection method to qualitatively evaluate the stability of the dangerous rock mass, determine the instability failure model and structural surface parameters, and use the Monte Carlo method to calculate the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass.

[0236] S101: Conduct a detailed survey of the collapsed dangerous rock mass and the surrounding areas to identify the engineering geological conditions of the collapsed area and the deformation characteristics of the dangerous rock mass, and analyze the instability and failure mode of the dangerous rock mass in combination with the monitoring data. The following steps can be adopted:

[0237] Conduct detailed surveys of the collapsed rock mass area to clarify the natural geographical conditions and geological environment background ( Figure 3 );

[0238] Identify the morphological, structural and deformation characteristics of dangerous rock masses and summarize their disaster-prone conditions ( Figure 4 );

[0239] With reference to norms and standards, dangerous rock masses are classified into the following types: dumping type, swelling type, sliding type, fault type, and tensile crack type;

[0240] Combined with deformation monitoring data, the instability failure mode of dangerous rock mass is analyzed and its evolution model is established ( Figure 6 ).

[0241] S102: Count the number and characteristics of the structural surfaces of the dangerous rock mass, and use the stereographic projection graphic analysis method to qualitatively evaluate the stability of the dangerous rock mass;

[0242] S103: Determine the structural surface parameters of the dangerous rock mass, and calculate the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass by using the Monte Carlo method based on the instability failure model.

[0243] S103: Conduct detailed investigation on the collapsed dangerous rock mass and nearby areas, which can be done by the following sub-steps:

[0244] The structural surface parameters of the dangerous rock mass are determined, and the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass is calculated by using the Monte Carlo method based on the instability failure model, which includes the following steps:

[0245] A simplified calculation model of collapsed rock mass is selected to establish a stability coefficient formula, which is specifically expressed as follows:

[0246]

[0247] Among them, K is the stability coefficient; U is the buoyancy of water; Q is the hydrostatic pressure; c is the cohesion of the structural surface; is the internal friction angle of the structural surface; W is the number of dangerous rock masses;

[0248] Based on the influence on the stability of dangerous rock mass, the heavy γ is considered to be treated as a constant, and c, Select as a random variable; Based on the multiplicative linear congruential method, use MATLAB to randomly generate 10,000 groups of c, The value is then processed by standard normal distribution, using the following expression:

[0249]

[0250] X=μ+σx′

[0251] Among them, μ is the mean of the random variable; is the standard deviation of the random variable;

[0252] Based on the comprehensive specifications, standards and references, the physical parameters of the structural surface of the Qixingshan collapsed dangerous rock mass can be obtained (Table 1).

[0253] Table 1 Physical parameters of the structural surface of the collapsed dangerous rock mass

[0254]

[0255]

[0256] After processing, c Substitute the value into the stability calculation formula to obtain 10,000 independent groups of stability coefficients. It is defined that when KS≤1, it means that the collapsed dangerous rock mass has been unstable and damaged. The instability and damage probability of the dangerous rock mass is obtained, which is specifically expressed as follows:

[0257]

[0258] Among them, P is the probability of instability damage, and M is the number of occurrences of instability damage.

[0259] According to the calculation results, the probability of instability of WY1 under natural conditions is 15.92%, and under extreme rainstorm conditions is 26.58%; the probability of instability of WY2 under natural conditions is 13.98%, and under extreme rainstorm conditions is 25.76%. The present invention takes into account the maximum impact that dangerous rock masses may have on the substation, so the instability probability is taken as the average value of the instability probability of the two dangerous rock masses under extreme rainstorm conditions, which is calculated to be 26.17%.

[0260] S200: Based on the results of field investigation, the physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil are obtained through field and indoor tests. The dynamic process of instability and failure of the collapsed rock mass is simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D. The motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapsed rockfall are obtained, and the collapse hazard assessment is completed in combination with ArcGIS.

[0261] S201: Based on the results of field investigation, the physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil are obtained through field and indoor tests. The dynamic process of instability and destruction of the collapsed rock mass is simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D, and the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapsed rock are obtained. The collapse hazard assessment is completed in combination with ArcGIS, which also includes the following steps:

[0262] Based on the field survey results, field and indoor tests were carried out to obtain the physical and mechanical parameters required for numerical simulation of collapse under different rainfall conditions;

[0263] A three-dimensional geological model and numerical model of the collapse area were established, and the dynamic process of unstable failure of dangerous rock mass was simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D to obtain the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapse rockfall.

[0264] Statistically analyze the probability of instability of dangerous rock masses and the probability of arrival of rockfall, and complete the collapse hazard assessment in combination with ArcGIS;

[0265] Among them, based on the field survey results, field and indoor tests are carried out to obtain the physical and mechanical parameters required for numerical simulation of collapse under different rainfall conditions, which includes the following steps:

[0266] Through on-site investigation, the main material composition and structural characteristics of the dangerous rock mass are determined, and a specific test plan is formulated. Through basic physical and mechanical tests such as uniaxial compression tests, macroscopic parameters such as density, Poisson's ratio, uniaxial compressive strength, and Young's modulus of the rock mass are obtained;

[0267] By collecting data and experimental results, the macroscopic mechanical parameters of the Qixingshan collapsed dangerous rock mass can be obtained (Table 2).

[0268] Table 2 Comparison of actual macro parameters and PFC3D simulation parameters

[0269]

[0270] Parameter calibration was carried out based on the PFC3D uniaxial compression test to convert the macroscopic parameters into microscopic parameters such as effective modulus, particle stiffness ratio, particle friction coefficient, parallel bond modulus, parallel bond stiffness ratio, normal bond strength, tangential bond strength, particle internal friction angle, etc. required for numerical simulation;

[0271] The microscopic parameters of PFC3D particles can be obtained through parameter calibration (Table 3).

[0272] Table 3 Rock mass particle microscopic parameters

[0273] Microscopic parameters unit Numeric <![CDATA[Effective modulus e mod > Pa 3e9 <![CDATA[Particle stiffness ratio K n / K s > - 2.5 Particle friction coefficient f - 0.2 Parallel bond modulus Pa 3e9 Parallel bond stiffness ratio - 2.5 Normal bond strength pb_ten Pa 3e6 Tangential bond strength pb_coh Pa 3.5e6 Particle internal friction angle pb_fa ° 37 Density ρ <![CDATA[kg / m 3 ]]> 2700 Particle radius m 0.1-0.2 Number of particles indivual 11512

[0274] Among them, a three-dimensional geological model and numerical model of the collapse area are established, and the dynamic process of unstable destruction of dangerous rock mass is simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D to obtain the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapse rockfall, which includes the following steps:

[0275] The image data of the site was obtained by using the three-dimensional oblique photography technology of unmanned aerial vehicles. The point cloud and preliminary contour lines were generated by Pix4dMapper, and the processed contour lines were obtained by Global Mapper. The three-dimensional geological model was established in Rhino software using the processed contour lines, and the three-dimensional numerical model was established according to the development characteristics of the dangerous rock mass. Figure 8 );

[0276] The simulation parameters under extreme rainfall conditions were selected, and the dynamic process of unstable rock mass failure was coupled by FLAC3D and PFC3D to obtain the movement stage division of rockfall, rockfall movement parameters, rock block fracture trend and other results; the movement stage of rockfall can be divided into accelerated deformation stage, high-speed movement stage and impact stop accumulation stage ( Fig. 9 ); According to the motion parameters, the maximum speed of the rockfall exceeds 20m / s, and the maximum displacement in the substation area exceeds 100m; according to the fracture of the bonding between particles, the overall fracture ratio of the rock blocks is close to 95%.

[0277] Based on numerical simulation, the movement trajectory and accumulation position of the collapsed rocks are analyzed, and the horizontal and vertical distribution characteristics of the collapsed rocks are obtained ( Fig.10 and Fig.11 ), after statistically calculating the probability of rockfall arriving at the substation site, the following expression is used:

[0278] P a =N i / N T

[0279] Where Pa is the arrival probability of the collapse rock; Ni is the number of collapse rocks stranded at a certain location; N T is the total number of collapsed rocks;

[0280] Among them, the instability probability of dangerous rock mass and the arrival probability of rockfall are statistically analyzed, and the collapse hazard assessment is completed in combination with ArcGIS, which includes the following steps:

[0281] According to the collected data and the actual situation of the substation, the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass and the arrival probability of the collapse and rockfall are graded, and a susceptibility grading table based on the instability probability and a disaster intensity grading table based on the arrival probability are established;

[0282] Table 4. Classification of susceptibility based on probability of instability

[0283] Susceptibility Prone to disease <![CDATA[Buckling probability (P f )]]> Gao Yifa Ⅰ ≥15％ Zhongyifa Ⅱ 5％，15％) Low incidence Ⅲ ＜5％

[0284] Table 5 Disaster severity classification based on arrival probability

[0285] Disaster intensity Strength level <![CDATA[Arrival probability (P a )]]> High strength Ⅰ ≥30％ Medium Strength Ⅱ 10％，30％) Low intensity Ⅲ ＜10％

[0286] Based on the Monte Carlo calculation results and numerical simulation results, ArcGIS was used to perform a superposition analysis of the instability probability and the arrival probability based on the hazard assessment matrix, and finally the hazard assessment and zoning map of the collapse dangerous rock mass was obtained ( Fig.12 ); among them, the high-risk area is 502m2, accounting for 5.5%; the medium-risk area is 2525m2, accounting for 27.7%; the low-risk area is 6104m2, accounting for 66.8%, and the specific expression is as follows:

[0287] H=P f ×P a

[0288] Among them, H is the danger of collapse of dangerous rock mass; Pf is the probability of instability of dangerous rock mass; Pa is the probability of arrival of collapse rockfall.

[0289] S300: Through summary, classification and simulation calculation, a physical model of substation electrical facilities including structural form and material assignment is established. Based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, a structural damage model of substation electrical facilities under the impact of landslide and rockfall is established;

[0290] S301: By summarizing, classifying and simulating, a physical model of the substation electrical facilities including structural forms and material assignments is established. Based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, a structural damage model of the substation electrical facilities under the impact of rockfall is established. The following steps can be used:

[0291] Through summarizing, classifying and numerical simulation, based on the structural and material characteristics of substation facilities, they are transformed into physical and numerical models that are convenient for calculation and analysis;

[0292] Based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, the deformation and damage process of substation electrical facilities under the impact of rockfall is summarized, and a structural damage model of substation electrical facilities is established;

[0293] Among them, through summarizing, classifying and numerical simulation, based on the structural characteristics and material characteristics of the substation facilities, they are converted into physical models and numerical models that are convenient for calculation and analysis, which includes the following steps:

[0294] Summarize and classify the main electrical facilities in the substation according to factors such as facility type, structural form, material composition and importance;

[0295] Numerical simulations were carried out to estimate the approximate locations of the substation electrical facilities that were impacted by the rockfall. The results showed that most of the rockfall impacted the lower and middle parts of the electrical facilities, with only a small portion impacting the top.

[0296] Based on the above steps, the substation electrical facilities are divided into three types: main transformers, other outdoor high-voltage electrical equipment, and buildings. There are 2 main transformers, 92 outdoor high-voltage electrical equipment, and 11 buildings, totaling 105 facilities ( Fig.13 );

[0297] Rhino and Griddle are used to perform grid difference division between geological bodies and substations. Except for dangerous rock bodies, the geological bodies are roughly divided, and the electrical facilities of substations are finely divided to improve the accuracy and calculation efficiency of numerical simulation.

[0298] Based on the impact location of electrical facilities and the most vulnerable material properties, ceramics, concrete, and masonry are used to represent the material properties of three types of facilities, and finally a collapse-substation numerical model is established;

[0299] Among them, based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, the deformation and damage process of substation electrical facilities under the impact of rockfall is summarized, and the structural damage model of substation electrical facilities is established, which includes the following steps:

[0300] With reference to the norms and industry guidelines, the deformation and damage process of three types of electrical facilities were clarified, and the impact energy distribution of rockfall and the impact stress changes of electrical facilities were selected as the evaluation indicators of their structural damage effects;

[0301] The damage levels of electrical facilities are divided into three levels, and the corresponding classification thresholds are clarified, and finally a structural damage model of substation electrical facilities is established.

[0302] Table 6 Main transformer damage evaluation model

[0303]

[0304] Table 7 Damage evaluation model for outdoor high-voltage electrical equipment

[0305]

[0306] Table 8 Building damage assessment model

[0307]

[0308]

[0309] S400: Based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, a vulnerability assessment model is established, and the numerical simulation results and the classification of electrical facility damage models are compared to complete the vulnerability assessment of substations under the impact of rockfall;

[0310] S401: Based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, a vulnerability assessment model is established; the numerical simulation results are compared with the classification of the electrical facility damage model to complete the substation vulnerability assessment under the impact of rockfall, which adopts the following steps;

[0311] A vulnerability assessment model is established based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities;

[0312] Compare the numerical simulation results with the classification of the electrical facility damage model to complete the substation vulnerability assessment under the impact of collapse;

[0313] Among them, based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, a vulnerability assessment model is established, which includes the following steps:

[0314] The impact intensity of rockfall is used to indicate the disaster intensity of landslide disasters, and the structural stress of electrical facilities under impact is used to indicate their disaster resistance capacity.

[0315] Based on the impact intensity distribution of rockfall and the structural damage models of various electrical facilities obtained above, a vulnerability model of electrical facilities in substations is established. It is assumed that when the electrical facilities are intact and can be used normally, their vulnerability is 0; when the electrical facilities reach the damage standard, their vulnerability is 1; when various types of facilities are between deformation and damage, the linear interpolation method is used to quantify the vulnerability, and the specific expression is as follows:

[0316]

[0317] Among them, Vs is the structural vulnerability value, ranging from 0 to 1; I is the disaster intensity; R is the disaster resistance capacity;

[0318] Comparing the numerical simulation results with the classification of the electrical facility damage model, the substation vulnerability assessment under the impact of collapse is completed, which includes the following steps:

[0319] Based on the quantitative data of vulnerability value, the vulnerability level of substation electrical facilities is divided into different levels to facilitate the subsequent vulnerability zoning operation; the specific classification is shown in Table 9.

[0320] Table 9 Vulnerability classification of substation facilities under collapse disaster

[0321] Vulnerability Damage level <![CDATA[Vulnerability value of the structure (V s )]]> High vulnerability Ⅰ ≥0.8 Medium Vulnerability Ⅱ 0.2，0.8) Low vulnerability Ⅲ ＜0.2

[0322] Multiple monitoring points were arranged in the collapsed rock particles and different parts of the electrical facilities in the numerical model to record the impact energy of collapsed rock on the electrical facilities and the structural stress changes of the electrical facilities under extreme working conditions. The monitoring data were statistically analyzed and the maximum impact energy and maximum structural stress suffered by different facilities were selected. The maximum impact energy appeared at the foot of the slope and could reach 50kJ ( Fig.14 ), the maximum principal stress of electrical facilities can reach 100kPa ( Fig.15 );

[0323] The vulnerability of each electrical facility is represented by two sets of data, the maximum impact energy and the maximum structural stress, and substituted into the vulnerability value formula to calculate the corresponding vulnerability classification table, completing the vulnerability evaluation and zoning of the substation electrical facilities. Among them, there are 34 high-vulnerability facilities, accounting for 32.38%; 44 medium-vulnerability facilities, accounting for 41.90%; and 27 low-vulnerability facilities, accounting for 25.72% ( Fig.16 ).

[0324] S500: Based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment, the matrix analysis method is used to conduct risk assessment of substation collapse geological disasters. Based on the evaluation results, the direct economic losses are estimated and the indirect economic losses are graded.

[0325] S501: Based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment, the matrix analysis method is used to conduct risk assessment of substation collapse geological disasters; based on the assessment results, direct economic losses are estimated and indirect economic losses are graded, which includes the following steps:

[0326] Based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment, matrix analysis method is used to evaluate the risk of substation collapse geological disasters;

[0327] Based on the evaluation results, estimate the direct economic losses and classify the indirect economic losses;

[0328] Among them, based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment, the matrix analysis method is used to conduct substation collapse geological disaster risk assessment, which includes the following steps:

[0329] The risk assessment of power station collapse geological disasters is based on the evaluation results of hazard and vulnerability, which is a concentrated reflection of the natural and social attributes of collapse. The specific expression is as follows:

[0330] R=H×V

[0331] Among them, R is the risk of substation collapse; H is the danger of collapse; V is the vulnerability of substation;

[0332] According to the results of hazard and vulnerability, matrix analysis is carried out to obtain the risk of substation collapse geological disaster;

[0333] Using ArcGIS overlay analysis, we obtained the risk assessment zoning;

[0334] Among them, according to the evaluation results, the direct economic losses are estimated and the indirect economic losses are classified, which includes the following steps:

[0335] According to the standards and on-site conditions, the economic value of each electrical facility is calculated, and the total value of the 110kV Shabaobao substation is about 15.493 million yuan. The specific value is shown in Table 10:

[0336] Table 10 Statistics on the economic value of 110kV Shabaobao substation

[0337]

[0338] Combining the calculation results of vulnerability value and economic value statistics, the direct economic loss of the substation under the action of collapse is estimated. It is calculated that the direct economic loss of the 110kV Shabaobao substation under the action of collapse disaster under extreme rainstorm conditions is 10.918 million yuan, which is specifically expressed as follows:

[0339] F=∑(V i ×F i )

[0340] Among them, F is the total direct economic loss of the substation under the collapse disaster; Vi is the structural vulnerability value of a single device; Fi is the economic value of a single device;

[0341] The vulnerability and social attributes of collapse require consideration of not only the economic losses of the substation itself, but also its indirect impact on the power grid system;

[0342] With reference to the power grid system specifications and standards, the factors affecting the importance of substations are divided into: single power supply line substations, first and second level power event equipment classification, important user power supply substations, guaranteed power grid, key and important substations. Important user power supply substations include industrial power supply substations and railway power supply substations.

[0343] Using the AHP method, the important weights of the influencing factors are calculated, and the specific weights and rankings can be used to construct a comprehensive weight calculation table for substations;

[0344] Table 11 Substation comprehensive weight calculation table

[0345] Influencing factors Comprehensive weight Weight sorting Single power supply line substation 0.0476 6 Secondary power event equipment classification 0.0952 5 Classification of first-level power event equipment 0.1905 3 Important user power supply substation 0.1089 4 Guaranteed power grid 0.3597 1 Key important substation 0.1980 2

[0346] The importance of substations is graded according to the weight to indicate the degree of their indirect impact on the economy and society. The specific classification can be constructed into a substation importance classification table. Since the 110kV Shabaobao substation belongs to the second-level power time equipment classification, it is an important substation.

[0347] Table 12 Classification of importance of substations

[0348] Weighted score 0 0-0.35 0.35-1 Importance level General importance (Ⅰ) Important (Ⅱ) Very important (III)

[0349] Through the above steps S100, S200, S300, S400, and S500, the substation collapse risk assessment result can be obtained. The invention has a reasonable concept, a simple operation process, and good feasibility. The risk assessment results based on the substation structure damage model can provide a scientific basis for geological disaster prevention and mitigation and emergency rescue work in mountainous areas.

[0350] It should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions of the present invention may be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention, which should all be included in the scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters based on a substation structural damage model, characterized in that: include, Through the investigation of the collapsed dangerous rock mass, the stability of the dangerous rock mass is evaluated by using the stereographic projection method, and the probability of instability is calculated by using the Monte Carlo method. The collapse process was simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D, the movement parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapsed rocks were obtained, and the hazard assessment was completed by combining ArcGIS. Through summarizing, classifying and simulating calculations, physical models of substation electrical facilities and structural damage models were established to analyze the impact of rockfall and collapse; Based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, a vulnerability assessment model was established to complete the substation vulnerability assessment; The matrix analysis method is used to evaluate the geological disaster risks, estimate the direct economic losses, and classify the indirect losses.

2. The method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of a substation structure damage model according to claim 1, characterized in that: The investigation of the collapsed dangerous rock mass includes a detailed investigation of the collapsed dangerous rock mass and the surrounding area, the engineering geological conditions of the collapsed area and the deformation characteristics of the dangerous rock mass are identified, and the instability and failure mode of the dangerous rock mass is analyzed in combination with the monitoring data. The following steps can be adopted: The number and characteristics of structural surfaces of dangerous rock masses were counted, and the stability of dangerous rock masses was qualitatively evaluated using stereographic projection graphic analysis method; The structural surface parameters of the dangerous rock mass are determined, and the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass is calculated using the Monte Carlo method based on the instability failure model.

3. The method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of a substation structure damage model according to claim 2, characterized in that: The detailed investigation of the collapsed dangerous rock mass and the surrounding area may be carried out in the following sub-steps: Conduct detailed surveys of the collapsed rock mass areas to clarify the natural geographical conditions and geological environment background; Identify the morphological, structural and deformation characteristics of dangerous rock masses and summarize their disaster-pregnancy conditions; With reference to the standard data, dangerous rock masses are classified into the following types: dumping type, swelling type, sliding type, fault type, and tensile crack type; Combined with deformation monitoring data, the instability failure mode of dangerous rock mass is analyzed and its evolution model is established; The method of counting the number and characteristics of the structural surfaces of the dangerous rock mass and using the stereographic projection graphic analysis method to qualitatively evaluate the stability of the dangerous rock mass comprises the following steps: Based on the on-site investigation, the collected structural surface information is counted and sorted, and then put into the drawing software to generate the stereographic projection map; According to the stereographic projection diagram, the relationship between joints and layers, as well as the combined intersection lines between joints and the slope projection arc are analyzed to qualitatively evaluate the stability of dangerous rock masses and potential deformation and failure characteristics; The method of determining the structural surface parameters of the dangerous rock mass and calculating the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass by using the Monte Carlo method based on the instability failure model comprises the following steps: A simplified calculation model of collapsed rock mass is selected to establish a stability coefficient formula, which is specifically expressed as follows: Among them, K is the stability coefficient; U is the buoyancy of water; Q is the hydrostatic pressure; c is the cohesion of the structural surface; is the internal friction angle of the structural surface; W is the number of dangerous rock masses; Based on the influence on the stability of dangerous rock mass, the heavy γ is considered to be treated as a constant, and c, Select as a random variable; Based on the multiplicative linear congruential method, use MATLAB to randomly generate 10,000 groups of c, The value is then processed by standard normal distribution, using the following expression: X=μ+σx′ Among them, μ is the mean of the random variable; is the standard deviation of the random variable; After processing, c Substitute the value into the stability calculation formula to obtain 10,000 independent groups of stability coefficients. It is defined that when KS≤1, it means that the collapsed dangerous rock mass has been unstable and damaged. The instability and damage probability of the dangerous rock mass is obtained, which is specifically expressed as follows: Among them, P is the probability of instability damage, and M is the number of occurrences of instability damage.

4. The method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of a substation structure damage model according to claim 3, characterized in that: The method of using FLAC3D and PFC3D to couple and simulate the collapse process, obtain the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapsed rocks, and complete the hazard assessment in combination with ArcGIS includes obtaining the physical and mechanical parameters of the rock mass through field and indoor tests based on the field survey results; using FLAC3D and PFC3D to couple and simulate the dynamic process of the instability and destruction of the collapsed dangerous rock mass, obtain the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapsed rocks, and complete the collapse hazard assessment in combination with ArcGIS, which also includes the following steps: Based on the field survey results, field and indoor tests were carried out to obtain the physical and mechanical parameters required for numerical simulation of collapse under different rainfall conditions; A three-dimensional geological model and numerical model of the collapse area were established, and the dynamic process of unstable failure of dangerous rock mass was simulated by coupling FLAC3D and PFC3D to obtain the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapse rockfall. Statistically analyze the probability of instability of dangerous rock masses and the probability of arrival of rockfall, and complete the collapse hazard assessment in combination with ArcGIS; The method of conducting field and indoor tests based on the field survey results to obtain the physical and mechanical parameters required for numerical simulation of collapse under different rainfall conditions includes the following steps: Through on-site investigation, the main material composition and structural characteristics of the dangerous rock mass are determined, and a specific test plan is formulated. Through the basic physical and mechanical tests of the uniaxial compression test, the density, Poisson's ratio, uniaxial compressive strength, and Young's modulus macroscopic parameters of the rock mass are obtained; Parameter calibration was carried out based on the PFC3D uniaxial compression test, and the macroscopic parameters were converted into the microscopic parameters of effective modulus, particle stiffness ratio, particle friction coefficient, parallel bond modulus, parallel bond stiffness ratio, normal bond strength, tangential bond strength, and particle internal friction angle required for numerical simulation; The method of establishing a three-dimensional geological model and a numerical model of the collapse area, using FLAC3D and PFC3D coupling to simulate the dynamic process of unstable destruction of dangerous rock mass, and obtaining the motion parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapse rockfall includes the following steps: The image data of the site was obtained by using the 3D oblique photography technology of UAV, and the point cloud and preliminary contour lines were generated by Pix4dMapper, and the processed contour lines were obtained by using Global Mapper; the 3D geological model was established by using the processed contour lines in Rhino software, and the 3D numerical model was established according to the development characteristics of the dangerous rock mass; The simulation parameters under extreme rainfall conditions were selected, and the dynamic process of unstable rock mass failure was coupled by FLAC3D and PFC3D to obtain the results of the movement stage division of rockfall, rockfall movement parameters, and rock block fracture trend. The movement trajectory and accumulation position of the collapsed rocks are analyzed to obtain the horizontal and vertical distribution characteristics of the collapsed rocks. The arrival probability of the collapsed rocks at the substation site is calculated by statistics, and the specific expression is as follows: P a =N i / N T Where Pa is the arrival probability of the collapse rock; Ni is the number of collapse rocks stranded at a certain location; N T is the total number of collapsed rocks; The statistical analysis of the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass and the arrival probability of the rockfall is combined with ArcGIS to complete the collapse hazard assessment, which includes the following steps: According to the collected data and the actual situation of the substation, the instability probability of the dangerous rock mass and the arrival probability of the collapse and rockfall are graded, and a susceptibility grading table based on the instability probability and a disaster intensity grading table based on the arrival probability are established; Based on the Monte Carlo calculation results and numerical simulation results, ArcGIS was used to perform a superposition analysis of the instability probability and the arrival probability, and finally the hazard evaluation of the collapsed dangerous rock mass was obtained. The specific expression is as follows: H=P f ×P a Among them, H is the danger of collapse of dangerous rock mass; Pf is the probability of instability of dangerous rock mass; Pa is the probability of arrival of collapse rockfall.

5. The method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of a substation structure damage model according to claim 4, characterized in that: By summarizing, classifying and simulating, a physical model of the substation electrical facilities including structural forms and material assignments is established. Based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, a structural damage model of the substation electrical facilities under the impact of rockfall is established, which can be achieved by the following steps: Through summarizing, classifying and numerical simulation, based on the structural and material characteristics of substation facilities, they are transformed into physical and numerical models that are convenient for calculation and analysis; Based on the results of numerical simulation analysis, the deformation and damage process of substation electrical facilities under the impact of rockfall is summarized, and a structural damage model of substation electrical facilities is established; The process of summarizing, classifying and numerical simulation is to convert the structural characteristics and material characteristics of the substation facilities into physical models and numerical models that are convenient for calculation and analysis, which includes the following steps: Summarize and classify the main electrical facilities inside the substation according to the factors of facility type, structure, material composition and importance; Conduct numerical simulations to estimate the approximate locations of substation electrical facilities impacted by rockfall; Based on the above steps, the electrical facilities of substations are divided into three types: main transformers, other outdoor high-voltage electrical equipment, and buildings; Rhino and Griddle are used to perform grid difference division between geological bodies and substations. Except for dangerous rock bodies, the geological bodies are roughly divided, and the electrical facilities of substations are finely divided to improve the accuracy and calculation efficiency of numerical simulation. Based on the impact location of electrical facilities and the most vulnerable material properties, ceramics, concrete, and masonry are used to represent the material properties of three types of facilities, and finally a collapse-substation numerical model is established; The method of summarizing the deformation and damage process of the substation electrical facilities under the impact of rockfall based on the numerical simulation analysis results and establishing a structural damage model of the substation electrical facilities includes the following steps: With reference to the norms and industry guidelines, the deformation and damage process of three types of electrical facilities were clarified, and the impact energy distribution of rockfall and the impact stress changes of electrical facilities were selected as the evaluation indicators of their structural damage effects; The damage levels of electrical facilities are divided into three levels, and the corresponding classification thresholds are clarified, and finally a structural damage model of substation electrical facilities is established.

6. The method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of a substation structure damage model according to claim 5, characterized in that: The vulnerability assessment model is established based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities; the numerical simulation results and the classification of the electrical facility damage model are compared to complete the vulnerability assessment of the substation under the impact of the collapse, which adopts the following steps; A vulnerability assessment model is established based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities; Compare the numerical simulation results with the classification of the electrical facility damage model to complete the substation vulnerability assessment under the impact of collapse; The vulnerability assessment model is established based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities, which includes the following steps: The impact intensity of rockfall is used to indicate the disaster intensity of landslide disasters, and the structural stress of electrical facilities under impact is used to indicate their disaster resistance capacity. Based on the impact intensity distribution of rockfall and the structural damage models of various electrical facilities obtained above, a vulnerability model of substation electrical facilities is established, in which the vulnerability of electrical facilities is considered to be 0 when they are intact and can be used normally; when the electrical facilities reach the damage standard, their vulnerability is considered to be 1; when various types of facilities are between deformation and damage, the linear interpolation method is used to quantify the vulnerability, and the specific expression is as follows: Among them, Vs is the structural vulnerability value, ranging from 0 to 1; I is the disaster intensity; R is the disaster resistance capacity; The comparison of numerical simulation results and electrical facility damage model classification to complete the substation vulnerability assessment under collapse impact includes the following steps: Based on the quantitative data of vulnerability value, the vulnerability level of substation electrical facilities is classified to facilitate the subsequent vulnerability zoning operation; Arrange multiple monitoring points in the collapsed rock particles and different parts of the electrical facilities in the numerical model to record the impact energy of collapsed rock on the electrical facilities and the changes in the structural stress of the electrical facilities under extreme working conditions, collect monitoring data, and select the maximum impact energy and maximum structural stress suffered by different facilities; The vulnerability of each electrical facility is represented by two sets of data: maximum impact energy and maximum structural stress. The data are substituted into the vulnerability value formula and calculated according to the corresponding vulnerability classification table to complete the vulnerability evaluation of the substation electrical facilities.

7. The method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of a substation structure damage model according to claim 6, characterized in that: The matrix analysis method is used to evaluate the geological disaster risk, estimate the direct economic losses, and classify the indirect losses, including using the matrix analysis method to evaluate the substation collapse geological disaster risk based on the hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment results; based on the assessment results, the direct economic losses are estimated and the indirect economic losses are classified, which includes the following steps: Based on the results of hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment, matrix analysis method is used to evaluate the risk of substation collapse geological disasters; Based on the evaluation results, estimate the direct economic losses and classify the indirect economic losses; Among them, the matrix analysis method is used to conduct substation collapse geological disaster risk assessment based on the hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment results, which includes the following steps: The risk assessment of power station collapse geological disasters is based on the evaluation results of hazard and vulnerability, which is a concentrated reflection of the natural and social attributes of collapse. The specific expression is as follows: R=H×V Among them, R is the risk of substation collapse; H is the danger of collapse; V is the vulnerability of substation; According to the results of hazard and vulnerability, matrix analysis is carried out to obtain the risk of substation collapse geological disaster; Using ArcGIS overlay analysis, we obtained the risk assessment zoning; The direct economic losses are estimated based on the evaluation results, and the indirect economic losses are classified, which includes the following steps: According to the standards and on-site conditions, the economic value of each electrical facility is calculated, and combined with the results of vulnerability calculation, the direct economic loss of the substation under the collapse is estimated. The specific expression is as follows: F=∑(V i ×F i ) Among them, F is the total direct economic loss of the substation under the collapse disaster; Vi is the structural vulnerability value of a single device; Fi is the economic value of a single device; The vulnerability and social attributes of collapse require consideration of not only the economic losses of the substation itself, but also its indirect impact on the power grid system; With reference to the power grid system specifications and standards, the factors affecting the importance of substations are divided into: single power supply line substations, first and second level power event equipment classification, important user power supply substations, guaranteed power grid, and key important substations. The important user power supply substations include industrial power supply substations and railway power supply substations; Using the AHP method, the important weights of the influencing factors are calculated, and the specific weights and rankings can be used to construct a comprehensive weight calculation table for substations; The importance of substations is graded according to their weights to indicate their indirect impact on the economy and society. The specific classification can be constructed by constructing a substation importance classification table.

8. A collapse geological disaster risk assessment system for a substation structural damage model, based on a collapse geological disaster risk assessment method for a substation structural damage model according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: Also includes, The data survey module uses the stereographic projection method to evaluate the stability of dangerous rock masses through surveying the collapsed dangerous rock masses, and uses the Monte Carlo method to calculate the probability of instability; The simulation module uses FLAC3D and PFC3D to couple and simulate the collapse process, obtain the movement parameters and distribution characteristics of the collapsed rocks, and complete the hazard assessment in combination with ArcGIS; The construction module establishes the physical model of the substation electrical facilities and the structural damage model through summarizing, classifying and simulating calculations, and analyzes the impact of rockfall and collapse; The classification module establishes a vulnerability assessment model based on the impact strength of rockfall and the structural resistance of electrical facilities to complete the substation vulnerability assessment; The evaluation module uses matrix analysis to evaluate geological disaster risks, estimate direct economic losses, and classify indirect losses.

9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of a substation structure damage model according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for assessing the risk of collapse geological disasters of a substation structure damage model according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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