National / regional carbon emission stage judgment and carbon peak reaching analysis and prediction method
Through statistical methods, the country's carbon emission stage is determined by using amplified samples and normal distribution curves, which solves the problem of inaccurate judgment in the existing technology, and achieves more reliable carbon emission stage determination and carbon peak prediction. .
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411174392.3
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-08-26
- Publication Date
- 2025-02-14
- Estimated Expiration
- Not applicable · inactive patent
AI Technical Summary
It is difficult for the prior art to accurately determine the different stages of carbon emissions in countries/regions, and it is impossible to accurately predict the carbon peak time of countries/regions that have not reached peak.
Using a statistical method, the samples were amplified by obtaining the original samples of carbon emissions from peak countries, using the augmented sample statistical method to generate a normal distribution curve, calculate the mean and variance, and determine the 95% confidence interval. The annual carbon emission range within the range, and then determine the carbon emission stage. For countries that have not reached peak, peaked countries/regions with similar energy structures are used as the control group to analyze important indicator parameters of their carbon emission stages and predict carbon peak time and other related indicators.
Accurate quantitative judgment of different stages of national carbon emissions is achieved, which reduces the impact of subjectivity and improves the reliability and practicality of the analysis results.
Smart Images
Figure CN119443335A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of environmental energy conservation and emission reduction, and specifically relates to a method for determining a country / region's carbon emission stage and analyzing and predicting a carbon peak based on statistics. Background Art
[0002] Carbon emissions are the main cause of climate change. Currently, more than 130 countries in the world have proposed carbon emission reduction strategies. It is of great significance to formulate carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies in advance to predict the current carbon emission stage of a country (region), the future carbon emission peak time, the peak volume after the peak, and the decline trend after the peak.
[0003] At present, the carbon emission stages of countries (regions) are mainly divided into three stages: rising stage, peak stage and decline stage. There are two main existing standards for determining the above stages: Judgment criteria ① IPCC has declined for five consecutive years and the government has made a commitment; Judgment standard ② For example, the annual fluctuation range of less than 1% in the literature is regarded as the peak plateau period; if it has been declining for 5 consecutive years, the annual decline rate is greater than 2%, and the latter decline rate of 10% in 5 years is regarded as entering the decline period.
[0004] Among them, for most peak countries, judgment criterion ① belongs to qualitative analysis, and one of the conditions, the government's commitment, is highly subjective, which is not conducive to qualitative and precise analysis; when using judgment criterion ② to determine the carbon emissions decline period, except for countries where carbon emissions have suddenly dropped off a cliff, the decline slope of most countries cannot reach the standard of an annual decline of more than 2%, or a total decline of more than 10% in 5 years, so the decline period cannot be determined at all.
[0005] In addition, the current analysis and prediction of carbon peak in countries (regions) that have not yet reached their peak is usually based on data such as energy consumption, energy structure, population structure, economic data, and consumption capacity, and a carbon emission prediction model is established through the correlation between carbon emissions and the above factors. However, in actual operation, the independent variables of the model (energy, population, economy, consumption) need to be predicted for the future first, which may invisibly lead to the adverse impact of independent variable prediction bias on the final carbon emission prediction results.
[0006] From this, it can be seen that the currently used criteria for determining different stages of carbon emissions in countries (regions), as well as the analysis and prediction methods for carbon peaks in countries (regions), have the problem of low practicality. They cannot accurately and quantitatively determine the different stages of carbon emissions in countries (regions), nor can they predict the carbon peak in countries (regions) that have not yet reached their peak through the analysis of indicators of countries (regions) that have reached their peak. Summary of the invention
[0007] In response to the problems existing in the prior art, the present invention provides a method for determining the carbon emission stages of a country / region and analyzing and predicting its carbon peak, so as to achieve accurate quantitative determination of the different stages of carbon emissions in a country (region), and to predict the carbon peak for countries (regions) that have not yet reached their peak through indicator analysis of countries (regions) that have reached their peak.
[0008] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention is implemented through the following technical solutions: A method for determining a country / region's carbon emission stage, comprising the following steps: S101. Obtain the original sample of carbon emissions over the years of a country / region that has reached its peak target; S102, amplifying the original sample using an augmented sample statistical method to obtain a large number of amplified samples; S103, using the original sample and the amplified sample, generating a normal distribution curve, and calculating the mean μ and variance σ; S104. Calculate the maximum value of the annual carbon emission range that meets the 95% confidence interval using the mean μ and variance σ, and use this as a reference to determine the rising period, peak plateau period and declining period of the annual carbon emissions in the carbon emission stage of the country / region that has reached the peak target.
[0009] S105. Calculate the important indicative parameters of the carbon emission stage of countries / regions that have reached their peak targets, and provide a theoretical basis for the subsequent analysis and prediction of the carbon peak time of countries that have not yet reached their peak.
[0010] Furthermore, in step S102, the augmented sample statistical method adopts the Bootstrap method, and the original sample is bootstrapped by the Bootstrap method, so as to obtain a large number of bootstrap samples to achieve sample amplification.
[0011] Furthermore, the specific method of using the Bootstrap method to bootstrap the original sample is: 1) The original sample is randomly sampled at least 10,000 times, and the number of samples drawn in each random sampling is randomly generated and within the total number of the original sample; 2) Calculate the average value of each random sampling sample; 3) Save each calculated average and use it as a bootstrap sample for amplification.
[0012] Furthermore, in step S104, the specific method for determining the carbon emission stage is: First, using the mean μ and variance σ, we calculated the value of μ-1.96σ and the value of μ+1.96σ, respectively, and thus calculated the annual carbon emission range that met the 95% confidence interval; Then, the value of μ+1.96σ is taken as the lower limit of the annual carbon emission peak plateau period, and the maximum annual carbon emission value in the original sample is taken as the upper limit of the annual carbon emission peak plateau period; Finally, according to the lower limit of the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period, the criteria for determining the three stages of annual carbon emissions are determined. The specific criteria are as follows: 1) If the annual carbon emissions for five consecutive years from the Nth year are greater than the value of μ+1.96σ, it is considered that the annual carbon emissions have entered a peak plateau period since the Nth year, and the period before the Nth year is considered to be a rising period of annual carbon emissions; 2) If the annual carbon emissions for five consecutive years are less than the value of μ+1.96σ starting from the N'th year after entering the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period, it is considered that the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period has been left since the N'th year, that is, the period between N and N' is the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period, and the period after N'th year is considered to be the annual carbon emissions decline period.
[0013] Furthermore, in step S105, the important indicative parameters of the carbon emission stage of the countries / regions that have reached the peak target include: 1) Duration of the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period T last ; 2) Peak time after entering the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period T top ; 3) The ratio of the minimum and maximum carbon emissions during the annual carbon emission peak plateau period β; 4) Annual decline rate of carbon emissions during the period of annual carbon emissions decline γ 下 .
[0014] Preferably, the annual decline rate γ 下 It can be divided into 0-5 years, 5-10 years, and 10-15 years to improve the accuracy of carbon emissions forecasts in subsequent years.
[0015] A method for analyzing and predicting carbon peak in a country / region comprises the following steps: S201. Based on the energy structure of the countries / regions that have not reached the peak target, select the countries / regions that have reached the peak with similar energy structure as the control group; S202, using the above-mentioned national / regional carbon emission stage determination method to determine three different carbon emission stages of the control group, and calculating the corresponding important indicator parameters; S203. Based on the carbon peak commitment time made by the governments of countries / regions that have not reached the peak target, the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period will begin 2 to 3 years after the commitment time by default; S204. According to the important indicative parameters obtained by calculation, respectively predict the specific carbon peak time of the target countries / regions that have not reached the peak, the time to enter the annual carbon emissions decline period and the carbon emissions slope, and the maximum carbon emissions when the carbon peak is reached; S205. Based on the predicted specific carbon peak time of the countries / regions that have not reached the peak target, the time to enter the annual carbon emissions decline period and the carbon emissions slope, and the maximum carbon emissions at the carbon peak, fit the future annual carbon emissions of the countries / regions that have not reached the peak target.
[0016] Furthermore, the important indicator parameters of the carbon emission stage of the control group are: 1) Duration of the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions in the control group T last ; 2) The peak time T of the control group after entering the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions top ; 3) The ratio of the minimum and maximum carbon emissions during the peak plateau period of the control group’s annual carbon emissions, β; 4) The annual decline rate of carbon emissions during the decline period of the control group’s annual carbon emissions γ 下 .
[0017] Preferably, the annual decline rate γ 下 It can be divided into 0-5 years, 5-10 years, and 10-15 years to improve the accuracy of carbon emissions forecasts in subsequent years.
[0018] Furthermore, the peak time T of the control group after entering the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions was top , predict the specific carbon peak time for countries / regions that have not reached the peak target.
[0019] Furthermore, according to the duration of the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions in the control group, last , determine the time when countries / regions that have not reached their peak targets will enter a period of annual carbon emissions decline.
[0020] Furthermore, according to the annual carbon emission reduction rate γ of the control group during the period of annual carbon emission reduction 下 , determine the slope of carbon emissions during the annual carbon emissions decline period for countries / regions that have not reached their peak targets.
[0021] Furthermore, based on the ratio β of the minimum and maximum carbon emissions during the annual carbon emission peak plateau period of the control group, the maximum carbon emissions of the target countries / regions that have not reached the peak are predicted.
[0022] A computer device comprises: a processor, a memory, a communication interface and a communication bus, wherein the processor, the memory and the communication interface communicate with each other via the communication bus, and the memory is used to store at least one executable instruction, wherein the executable instruction enables the processor to execute operations corresponding to the above-mentioned method for determining the carbon emission stage of a country / region, and / or the above-mentioned method for analyzing and predicting the carbon peak of a country / region.
[0023] A computer-readable storage medium storing at least one executable instruction, wherein the executable instruction enables a processor to execute operations corresponding to the above-mentioned method for determining the carbon emission stage of a country / region, and / or the above-mentioned method for analyzing and predicting the carbon peak of a country / region.
[0024] The beneficial effects of the present invention are: The statistical-based judgment standard for different stages of carbon emissions proposed in the present invention not only conforms to the normal distribution law of mathematical statistics, but can also accurately determine the rising period, peak plateau period and declining period of carbon emissions, and completely avoids the subjective influence and inoperability of the prior art, and has been innovatively improved in the objectivity and practicability of the method.
[0025] The present invention proposes a statistically based method for determining the different stages of carbon emissions and analyzing and predicting the carbon peak. By adopting probability theory and mathematical statistics methods, the peak plateau period range of carbon emissions in the analyzed countries (regions) is reasonably obtained, and the analysis error is controlled within 5% (95% confidence interval), making the analysis results more reliable.
[0026] The above description is only an overview of the technical solution of the present invention. In order to more clearly understand the technical means of the invention and implement it according to the contents of the specification, the following is a detailed description of the preferred embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The specific implementation of the present invention is given in detail by the following embodiments and their accompanying drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0027] The drawings described herein are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention and constitute a part of this application. The exemplary embodiments of the present invention and their descriptions are used to explain the present invention and do not constitute an improper limitation of the present invention. In the drawings: Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the steps of the method for determining the country / region carbon emission stage and carbon peak analysis and prediction of the present invention.
[0028] Figure 2 This is the distribution map of the original sample + bootstrap sample of France's annual carbon emissions from 1970 to 2021 analyzed using the country / region carbon emission stage determination method of the present invention.
[0029] Figure 3This is the original sample distribution map of Russia's annual carbon emissions from 1970 to 2020 obtained in Example 1 of the present invention.
[0030] Figure 4 This is a distribution diagram of the three different carbon emission stages in Russia between 1970 and 2020 determined in Example 1 of the present invention.
[0031] Figure 5 This is a graph of China's annual per capita carbon emissions from 2020 to 2100 fitted under six control group modes in Example 2 of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0032] The preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings so that the purpose, features and advantages of the invention can be more clearly understood. It should be understood that the embodiments shown in the accompanying drawings are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, but are only intended to illustrate the essential spirit of the technical solution of the present invention.
[0033] In the following description, certain specific details are set forth for the purpose of illustrating various disclosed embodiments to provide a thorough understanding of the various disclosed embodiments. However, those skilled in the relevant art will recognize that the embodiments may be practiced without one or more of these specific details. In other cases, well-known devices, structures, and techniques associated with the present application may not be shown or described in detail to avoid unnecessarily obscuring the description of the embodiments.
[0034] Unless the context requires otherwise, throughout the specification and claims, the word "comprise" and variations such as "include" and "have" should be construed in an open, inclusive sense, ie, should be interpreted as "including, but not limited to."
[0035] References throughout the specification to "one embodiment" or "an embodiment" indicate that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment is included in at least one embodiment. Thus, the appearances of "in one embodiment" or "in an embodiment" in various places throughout the specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, or characteristics may be combined in any manner in one or more embodiments.
[0036] As used in this specification and the appended claims, the singular forms "a," "an," and "the" include plural referents unless the context clearly dictates otherwise. It should be noted that the term "or" is generally employed in its sense including "and / or" unless the context clearly dictates otherwise.
[0037] In addition, the technical features involved in the different embodiments of the present invention described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.
[0038] See also Figure 1 As shown, a method for determining the carbon emission stage of a country / region and analyzing and predicting its carbon peak mainly includes determining the carbon emission stage of countries / regions that have reached their peak and analyzing and predicting its carbon peak for countries / regions that have not yet reached their peak.
[0039] S100: The method for determining the carbon emission stage of a country / region that has reached its peak includes the following steps: S101. Determine a country / region that has reached its peak target and whose carbon emission stage needs to be determined, and obtain the original samples of the carbon emissions of the country / region that has reached its peak target over the years through official channels such as government statistical websites.
[0040] S102. Amplify the original sample using a statistical method such as an augmented sample method to obtain a large number of amplified samples.
[0041] Statistical inference refers to the statistical method in probability theory and mathematical statistics that infers the population through samples. It uses the basic assumptions of the problem and the information contained in the observed data to make the most accurate and reliable conclusions possible based on samples with a certain degree of randomness. It is widely used in inferring the height and weight of a group and the conclusions are reliable.
[0042] Bootstrap is a statistical method for augmenting samples, which can use repeated samples to make overall inferences. Therefore, the present invention can preferentially use the Bootstrap method to bootstrap the original sample, thereby obtaining a large number of bootstrap samples to achieve sample amplification. The specific method is as follows: 1) Start the sampling bootstrap cycle. The number of cycles is recommended to be greater than 10,000 to ensure that the sample size after expansion is large enough to carry out normal distribution characteristic analysis; 2) Based on the original sample size m, randomly generate the number of samples to be drawn each time m'=1~m; 3) Randomly select m' samples from the original sample and calculate the average value of all sampled data; 4) Save the calculated average as a new bootstrap sample; 5) Complete all bootstrap cycles to obtain augmented samples that conform to the distribution law of the original data.
[0043] See also Figure 2 As shown, taking France's carbon emissions (original samples) from 1970 to 2021 as an example, the Bootstrap method is used to randomly select n (n=1~51) original samples each time, and calculate the average value as the new sample number. After 20,000 bootstraps, a total of 20,051 French annual carbon emissions original samples + augmented samples are obtained.
[0044] The annual carbon emission samples obtained by bootstrapping with the Bootstrap method conform to the normal distribution of natural laws. The peak fluctuation range can be obtained by combining the characteristics of the normal distribution law and the definition of the confidence interval of carbon emissions in the IPCC.
[0045] S103. Generate a normal distribution curve using the original sample and the amplified sample, and calculate the mean μ and variance σ.
[0046] S104. Using the mean μ and variance σ, calculate the maximum value of the annual carbon emission range that meets the 95% confidence interval, and use this as a reference to determine the carbon emission stage of the country / region that has reached the peak target. The specific method is as follows: The present invention still divides the different stages of carbon emissions into three stages: an annual carbon emission rising period, an annual carbon emission peak plateau period and an annual carbon emission falling period.
[0047] First, the present invention combines the recommendations for the 95% confidence interval of annual carbon emissions given by the IPCC, and uses the mean μ and variance σ to calculate the annual carbon emissions range CS that meets the 95% confidence interval, as shown in the following formula: (1); Then, the value of μ+1.96σ is taken as the lower limit of the annual carbon emission peak plateau period, and the maximum annual carbon emission value in the original sample is taken as the upper limit of the annual carbon emission peak plateau period; Finally, according to the lower limit of the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period, the criteria for determining the three stages of annual carbon emissions are determined, which are: 1) If the annual carbon emissions for five consecutive years from the Nth year are greater than the value of μ+1.96σ, it is considered that the annual carbon emissions have entered a peak plateau period since the Nth year, and the period before the Nth year is considered to be a rising period of annual carbon emissions; 2) If the annual carbon emissions for five consecutive years are less than the value of μ+1.96σ starting from the N'th year after entering the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period, it is considered that the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period has been left since the N'th year, that is, the period between N and N' is the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period, and the period after N'th year is considered to be the annual carbon emissions decline period.
[0048] Therefore, by calculating the value of μ+1.96σ and then based on the above-mentioned criteria for determining different stages of carbon emissions, we can determine the rising period, peak plateau period and declining period of carbon emissions in the country / region that has reached its peak target.
[0049] S105. Calculate the important indicative parameters of the carbon emission stage of the countries / regions that have reached the peak target, including the duration of the annual carbon emission peak plateau period T last , the peak time after entering the annual carbon emission peak plateau period T top, the ratio of the minimum and maximum carbon emissions during the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions β and the annual decline rate of carbon emissions during the decline period of annual carbon emissions γ 下 (Annual decline rate γ 下 It can be divided into 0-5 years, 5-10 years, and 10-15 years to improve the accuracy of carbon emissions forecasts in subsequent years).
[0050] Obtaining the above-mentioned important indicative parameters will provide a theoretical basis for the subsequent analysis and prediction of the carbon peak time in countries that have not yet reached their peak.
[0051] S200: The carbon peak analysis and prediction method for countries / regions that have not reached the peak includes the following steps: S201. Based on the energy structure of countries / regions that have not yet reached their peak energy target, identify countries / regions that have already reached their peak energy target with similar energy structure and use them as the control group.
[0052] S202: Use the above-mentioned national / regional carbon emission stage determination method to determine the three different carbon emission stages of the control group, and calculate the duration T of the corresponding annual carbon emission peak plateau period. last , the peak time after entering the annual carbon emission peak plateau period T top , the ratio of the minimum and maximum carbon emissions during the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions β and the annual decline rate of carbon emissions during the decline period of annual carbon emissions γ 下 (Annual decline rate γ 下 It can be divided into 0-5 years, 5-10 years, and 10-15 years to improve the accuracy of carbon emissions forecasts in subsequent years).
[0053] S203. Based on the carbon peak commitment time made by the governments of countries / regions that have not yet reached the peak target, it is assumed that the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period will begin within 2 to 3 years after the commitment time.
[0054] S204, the peak time T after the control group enters the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions top , predict the specific carbon peak time of the target countries / regions that have not reached the peak; according to the duration of the annual carbon emission peak plateau period of the control group T last , determine the time when the countries / regions that have not reached the peak target enter the annual carbon emissions decline period; according to the annual carbon emissions decline rate γ of the control group during the annual carbon emissions decline period 下 , determine the slope of carbon emissions during the period of annual carbon emissions decline in countries / regions that have not reached their peak targets; based on the ratio β of the minimum and maximum carbon emissions during the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions in the control group, predict the maximum carbon emissions when the carbon peak is reached in countries / regions that have not reached their peak targets.
[0055] S205. Based on the predicted specific carbon peak time of the countries / regions that have not reached the peak target, the time to enter the annual carbon emissions decline period and the carbon emissions slope, and the maximum carbon emissions at the carbon peak, fit the future annual carbon emissions of the countries / regions that have not reached the peak target.
[0056] Taking Russia as an example, the method for determining the carbon emission stage of a country / region using the present invention is further described below. The specific implementation steps are as follows: Example 1 Analysis of Russia's carbon emissions at different stages; Step 1: Download the relevant statistical yearbooks through official channels such as the Russian National Statistics Website to obtain Figure 3 The original sample data of Russia's annual carbon emissions from 1970 to 2020 is shown.
[0057] Step 2: Use the Bootstrap method to obtain bootstrap samples and increase the amount of sample data. The specific method is: (1) Start the sampling bootstrap cycle, with a number of cycles of 20,000 to ensure that the sample size after expansion is large enough to carry out normal distribution characteristic analysis; (2) Based on the original sample size of 51, randomly generate the number of samples to be drawn each time m'=1~51; (3) Randomly select m' samples from the original sample and calculate the average value of all sampled data; (4) Save the calculated average value as a new bootstrap sample; (5) Complete all bootstrap cycles to obtain augmented samples that conform to the distribution law of the original data.
[0058] Step 3: Combine the original sample and the augmented sample to generate a normal distribution curve and calculate the mean μ=1789.41 and variance σ=65.37.
[0059] Step 4: Calculate the value of μ+1.96σ and determine the rising period, peak plateau period and declining period of Russia’s carbon emissions based on the above-mentioned criteria for determining different stages of carbon emissions.
[0060] See also Figure 4 As shown, the judgment result is that Russia's carbon emissions experienced an increasing period between 1970 and 1981, a peak plateau period between 1982 and 1993, and a decreasing period between 1994 and 2020.
[0061] Step 5: Calculate the annual growth rate of carbon emissions during the rising period γ 上 =2.1%, the duration of the peak plateau period is T last = 13 years, peak time after entering the peak plateau period T top = 10 years, annual decline rate of carbon emissions during the decline period γ下 = -1.6% (short term), γ 下 =-0.2% (long term).
[0062] Taking China as an example, the method for analyzing and predicting the per capita carbon peak in a country / region using the present invention is further described below. The specific implementation steps are as follows: Example 1 Analysis and prediction of China's per capita carbon peak; Step 1: Based on China’s energy structure, find countries with similar energy structures that have reached peak emissions as a control group. For example, Finland, Iceland, Portugal, Greece, Spain and Ireland are selected as the control group.
[0063] Step 2: Analyze the carbon emission stage determination method for a country / region proposed in the present invention to obtain the duration T of the annual carbon emission peak plateau period of each control group country. last , the peak time after entering the annual carbon emission peak plateau period T top , the ratio of the minimum and maximum carbon emissions during the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions β, the annual decline rate of carbon emissions during the decline period of annual carbon emissions γ 下 , the calculation results are shown in Table 1.
[0064] Table 1 Calculation results of important indicator parameters of carbon emission stages in each control group country
[0065] Step 3: Based on the Chinese government’s official commitment to reach carbon peak in 2019, it is assumed that the peak plateau period will begin in 2020.
[0066] Step 4: Based on the models of different control group countries, we start the future prediction of China's per capita carbon emissions peaking. We predict China's specific carbon peaking time, the time to enter the annual carbon emissions decline period and the carbon emissions slope, and the maximum carbon emissions at the carbon peak. We also fit the annual carbon emissions of target countries / regions that have not reached the peak. The calculation results are shown in Table 2.
[0067] Table 2 Calculation results of important indicator parameters for China's per capita carbon emissions peak under each control group country model
[0068] Step 5: Combine the calculated carbon peak time of China, the time of entering the decline phase, and the slope of the decline phase, see Figure 5 As shown, it fits China's annual per capita carbon emissions between 2020 and 2100.
[0069] The above two embodiments can further prove that the method for determining the national / regional carbon emission stage and analyzing and predicting the carbon peak provided by the present invention can not only realize the accurate quantitative determination of the different stages of national (regional) carbon emissions, but also realize the carbon peak prediction for countries (regions) that have not reached the peak through the indicator analysis of countries (regions) that have reached the peak, thereby improving the objectivity and practicality, and making the analysis results more reliable.
[0070] The present invention also provides a computer device, comprising: a processor, a memory, a communication interface and a communication bus, wherein the processor, the memory and the communication interface communicate with each other through the communication bus, and the memory is used to store at least one executable instruction, and the executable instruction enables the processor to execute the above-mentioned country / region carbon emission stage determination method, and / or the above-mentioned country / region carbon peak analysis and prediction method corresponding operations.
[0071] The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores at least one executable instruction, and the executable instruction enables a processor to execute operations corresponding to the above-mentioned national / regional carbon emission stage determination method and / or the above-mentioned national / regional carbon peak analysis and prediction method.
[0072] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. For those skilled in the art, the present invention may have various modifications and variations. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims
1. A method for determining a country / region's carbon emission stage, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S101. Obtain the original sample of carbon emissions over the years of a country / region that has reached its peak target; S102, amplifying the original sample using an augmented sample statistical method to obtain a large number of amplified samples; S103, using the original sample and the amplified sample, generating a normal distribution curve, and calculating the mean μ and variance σ; S104. Calculate the maximum value of the annual carbon emission range that meets the 95% confidence interval using the mean μ and variance σ, and use this as a reference to determine the rising period, peak plateau period, and declining period of the annual carbon emissions of the country / region that has reached the peak target; S105. Calculate the important indicative parameters of the carbon emission stage of countries / regions that have reached their peak targets, and provide a theoretical basis for the subsequent analysis and prediction of the carbon peak time of countries that have not yet reached their peak.
2. The method for determining the national / regional carbon emission stage according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S102, the augmented sample statistical method adopts the Bootstrap method, and the original sample is bootstrapped by the Bootstrap method, so as to obtain a large number of bootstrap samples to achieve sample amplification.
3. The method for determining the national / regional carbon emission stage according to claim 2, characterized in that: The specific method of using the Bootstrap method to bootstrap the original sample is: 1) The original sample is randomly sampled at least 10,000 times, and the number of samples drawn in each random sampling is randomly generated and within the total number of the original sample; 2) Calculate the average value of each random sampling sample; 3) Save each calculated average and use it as a bootstrap sample for amplification.
4. The method for determining the national / regional carbon emission stage according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S104, the specific method for determining the carbon emission stage is: First, using the mean μ and variance σ, we calculated the value of μ-1.96σ and the value of μ+1.96σ, respectively, and thus calculated the annual carbon emission range that met the 95% confidence interval; Then, the value of μ+1.96σ is taken as the lower limit of the annual carbon emission peak plateau period, and the maximum annual carbon emission value in the original sample is taken as the upper limit of the annual carbon emission peak plateau period; Finally, according to the lower limit of the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period, the judgment criteria for the three stages of annual carbon emissions are determined. The specific criteria are as follows: 1) If the annual carbon emissions for five consecutive years from the Nth year are greater than the value of μ+1.96σ, it is considered that the annual carbon emissions have entered a peak plateau period since the Nth year, and the period before the Nth year is considered to be a rising period of annual carbon emissions; 2) If the annual carbon emissions for five consecutive years are less than the value of μ+1.96σ starting from the N'th year after entering the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period, it is considered that the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period has been left since the N'th year, that is, the period between N and N' is the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period, and the period after N'th year is considered to be the annual carbon emissions decline period.
5. The method for determining the national / regional carbon emission stage according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S105, the important indicative parameters of the carbon emission stage of the countries / regions that have reached the peak target include: 1) Duration of the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period T last ; 2) Peak time after entering the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period T top ; 3) The ratio of the minimum and maximum carbon emissions during the annual carbon emission peak plateau period β; 4) Annual decline rate of carbon emissions during the period of annual carbon emissions decline γ 下 .
6. A method for analyzing and predicting carbon peak in a country / region, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S201. Based on the energy structure of the countries / regions that have not reached the peak target, select the countries / regions that have reached the peak with similar energy structure as the control group; S202, using the national / regional carbon emission stage determination method as described in any one of claims 1 to 5 to determine three different carbon emission stages of the control group, and calculating the corresponding important indicator parameters; S203. Based on the carbon peak commitment time made by the governments of countries / regions that have not reached the peak target, the annual carbon emissions peak plateau period will begin 2 to 3 years after the commitment time by default; S204. According to the important indicative parameters obtained by calculation, respectively predict the specific carbon peak time of the target countries / regions that have not reached the peak, the time to enter the annual carbon emissions decline period and the carbon emissions slope, and the maximum carbon emissions when the carbon peak is reached; S205. Based on the predicted specific carbon peak time of the countries / regions that have not reached the peak target, the time to enter the annual carbon emissions decline period and the carbon emissions slope, and the maximum carbon emissions at the carbon peak, fit the future annual carbon emissions of the countries / regions that have not reached the peak target.
7. The method for analyzing and predicting national / regional carbon peak according to claim 6, characterized in that: The important indicator parameters of the carbon emission stage of the control group are: 1) Duration of the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions in the control group T last ; 2) The peak time T of the control group after entering the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions top ; 3) The ratio of the minimum and maximum carbon emissions during the peak plateau period of the control group’s annual carbon emissions, β; 4) The annual decline rate of carbon emissions during the decline period of the control group’s annual carbon emissions γ 下 .
8. The method for analyzing and predicting national / regional carbon peak according to claim 7, characterized in that: The peak time T after the control group enters the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions top , predict the specific carbon peak time for countries / regions that have not reached the peak target; According to the duration of the peak plateau period of annual carbon emissions of the control group, T last , determine the time when countries / regions that have not reached their peak targets will enter a period of annual carbon emissions reduction; The annual decline rate of carbon emissions during the decline period according to the annual carbon emissions of the control group γ 下 , determine the slope of carbon emissions during the annual carbon emissions decline period for countries / regions that have not reached their peak targets; Based on the ratio β of the minimum and maximum carbon emissions in the annual carbon emission peak plateau period of the control group, the maximum carbon emissions of the target countries / regions that have not reached the peak when they reach the carbon peak are predicted.
9. A computer device, characterized in that: include: A processor, a memory, a communication interface and a communication bus, wherein the processor, the memory and the communication interface communicate with each other through the communication bus, and the memory is used to store at least one executable instruction, wherein the executable instruction enables the processor to execute operations corresponding to the national / regional carbon emission stage determination method as described in any one of claims 1 to 5, and / or the national / regional carbon peak analysis and prediction method as described in any one of claims 6 to 8.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer storage medium stores at least one executable instruction, which enables the processor to perform operations corresponding to the national / regional carbon emission stage determination method as described in any one of claims 1-5, and / or the national / regional carbon peak analysis and prediction method as described in any one of claims 6-8.