Environmental health risk judgment method based on emission list dynamic management system

Abstract

The invention provides an environmental health risk judgment method based on an emission list dynamic management system, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, analyzing the pollution source emission characteristics of a target region, and building a region key risk source emission information base according to an emission list; s2, calculating the discharge amount of the key risk source specific pollutants; s3, simulating the regional characteristic pollutant exposure concentration by using an atmospheric diffusion model CALPUFF; s4, risk source grading judgment and regional atmospheric environment health risk grading judgment. According to the invention, necessary information for judging the environmental health risk is obtained based on the dynamic emission list database of the atmospheric pollution source, so that integration of management and control services of the atmospheric pollution source and the ecological environmental health risk can be realized; the method has very strong support to environmental health risk whole-process prevention and control policy guidance of heavy metals, volatile organic compounds, new pollutants and other toxic and harmful chemical substances.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of regional atmospheric environmental health risk management, and in particular to an environmental health risk determination method based on an emission inventory dynamic management system. Background Art

[0002] At present, the dynamic emission inventory data of air pollution sources are mostly used to carry out ozone and particulate matter pollution prediction and tracing, and are less used in the environmental health risk assessment of air pollutants. They fail to fully release the value of existing air pollution source data and realize the integrated application of air pollution source and ecological environmental health risk management business. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide an environmental health risk determination method based on an emission inventory dynamic management system to solve the problems raised in the above technical background.

[0004] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0005] A method for determining environmental health risks based on an emission inventory dynamic management system comprises the following steps:

[0006] Step S1: Analyze the emission characteristics of pollution sources in the target area and establish an emission information database of key risk sources in the region based on the emission inventory;

[0007] Step S2: Calculation of characteristic pollutant emissions from key risk sources;

[0008] Step S3: Use the atmospheric diffusion model CALPUFF to simulate the regional target pollutant exposure concentration;

[0009] Step S4: Risk source classification and regional atmospheric environmental health risk classification.

[0010] Preferably, steps S1, S2 and S3 are all based on analysis operations of the emission inventory dynamic management system, and the necessary information for determining environmental health risks is directly output by the system.

[0011] Preferably, the dynamic management system of the emission inventory can be combined with environmental big data mining technology to clean and integrate pollution source data such as pollution source census, annual environmental statistics, pollution discharge declaration, total amount verification and online monitoring of key pollution sources. At the same time, the system's embedded work log dynamic management module will feedback the changes in pollution sources such as point sources, surface sources and mobile sources involved in air pollution prevention and control work to the dynamic management system of the emission inventory step by step, dynamically adjust the basic information, activity level and pollutant emissions of relevant pollution sources, and realize dynamic updating of pollution source information.

[0012] Preferably, in step S1, according to the emission inventory source classification system, the management system statistical analysis function module is used to analyze the emission characteristics of pollution sources in the target area, identify key emission industries and pollutants in the area, and establish an emission information database for key risk sources.

[0013] Preferably, in step S2, the emission amount of characteristic pollutants from key risk sources is calculated, and the emission amount of characteristic pollutants from key risk sources can be calculated on an annual, monthly and hourly basis based on the dynamic management system of the emission inventory.

[0014] Preferably, in step S2, the emission inventory dynamic management system provides the following two methods for calculating the emission of characteristic pollutants from key risk sources:

[0015] (1) Exhaust gas pollutant emission data directly obtained based on survey / monitoring results;

[0016] Based on the key risk source emission information database, the industrial enterprise waste gas pollutant emission data is directly obtained, including waste gas emission port information, waste gas emission volume, and the emission volume of pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, ammonia, arsenic, lead, cadmium, chromium, and mercury. The enterprise waste gas emission port information includes the emission port location (latitude and longitude), emission port number, and emission port height (meters); the pollutant emission data includes the industrial enterprise waste gas emission volume (10,000 cubic meters), volatile organic compound emission (kilograms), toxic heavy metal emission (kilograms), and single organic emission (kilograms).

[0017] (2) Exhaust gas pollutant emission data obtained based on emission coefficient calculation.

[0018] 1) Screening of target pollutants. Use the statistical analysis function module of the emission inventory management system to analyze and select pollutants with large emissions and high health hazards as target pollutants based on the characteristic pollutants emitted by the industries to which the key risk sources belong and their toxic effects.

[0019] 2) Determine the target pollutant emission coefficient. Use the emission inventory management system inventory compilation function module to match the target pollutant emission coefficient. For target pollutants whose exhaust gas pollutant emission data cannot be directly obtained through the emission coefficient library of the emission inventory management system, the emission coefficient can be determined by the following two methods, and the constructed emission coefficient can be organized into the emission coefficient library of the emission inventory management system for archiving management:

[0020] First, a target pollutant fingerprint library is established based on the height of the risk source exhaust chimney, the monitored pollution factors, the geographical information of the monitoring sites, and the distribution of surrounding sensitive points in the key risk source emission information database; and the emission coefficients of target pollutants from risk sources are constructed by combining the material balance method and field investigation and monitoring.

[0021] Second, based on literature research and compilation methods, determine the industry emission coefficient and related information, including pollutant name, CAS number, industry, coefficient type, process, product, coefficient, unit, number of samples, deviation and location, etc. The unit of emission coefficient is Or wt%.

[0022] 3) Calculation of target pollutant emission data. According to the industry type, process, product and other information of different enterprises, select the appropriate emission coefficient, and calculate the target pollutant emissions of different industries and different types of enterprises through waste gas emissions, total VOCs emissions and emission coefficients:

[0023] Exhaust emissions are calculated using the following formula:

[0024]

[0025] Where:

[0026] is the emission of pollution factor k produced by enterprise j in industry i, mg;

[0027] is the emission coefficient of pollution factor k of industry i, ;

[0028] is the VOCs waste gas emission volume of enterprise j in the industry i, .

[0029] The total VOCs emissions are calculated according to the following formula:

[0030]

[0031] Where:

[0032] is the emission of pollution factor k produced by enterprise j in industry i, mg;

[0033] is the emission coefficient of pollution factor k of a certain industry i, wt%;

[0034] is the VOCs emission of enterprise j in industry i, mg.

[0035] Preferably, in step S3, the atmospheric diffusion model CALPUFF is used to simulate the regional characteristic pollutant exposure concentration, and the emission inventory processing system embedded in the management system is used for operation. The method steps include:

[0036] (1) Based on the regional key risk source emission information database, obtain the basic data of risk sources and the unit time exhaust gas emission data of the specified period.

[0037] (2) Screen and filter invalid and falsified data from the waste gas emission data of the risk source; convert the waste gas emission data into the measurement units required by the CALPUFF model; and generate a unit time waste gas emission inventory based on the basic data of the risk source and the processed unit data waste gas emission data.

[0038] (3) Based on the CALPUFF model, the air quality of pollution sources is simulated using the exhaust gas emission inventory per unit time. Pollution prediction is carried out based on the simulation results to evaluate the exposure concentration of regional characteristic pollutants.

[0039] Preferably, in step S3, based on the regional key risk source emission information database, the risk source basic data and the unit time exhaust gas emission data of the specified period are obtained:

[0040] (1) Basic data of risk sources include: chimney number, longitude, latitude, inner diameter of chimney outlet, height of chimney from the ground, chimney outlet temperature, chimney outlet speed, chimney flow rate, production status, and industry.

[0041] (2) Waste gas emission data include: VOCs emissions per unit time, smoke temperature and flow rate.

[0042] Preferably, in step S4, the risk source classification determination method and the regional atmospheric environment health risk classification determination method include: a risk source classification method and a regional atmospheric environment health classification method.

[0043] Preferably, in step S4, the steps of the risk source classification method include:

[0044] Step 1: Calculation and classification of risk source hazard intensity

[0045] The hazard intensity of risk sources is mainly calculated semi-quantitatively for enterprises in the region based on the degree of possible carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic hazards of pollutants in waste gas emissions from industrial enterprises.

[0046] Among them, the formula for the intensity of carcinogenic hazard of risk source is:

[0047]

[0048] Where:

[0049] is the pollution factor emission of the enterprise, g;

[0050] is the volume of waste gas emitted by the enterprise, ;

[0051] Inhalation carcinogenicity slope factor .

[0052] The formula for the non-carcinogenic hazard intensity of risk sources is:

[0053]

[0054] Where:

[0055] Non-carcinogenic reference dose for pollutants .

[0056] Based on the calculation of the hazard intensity of risk sources, industrial enterprises of the same industry category in the evaluation area are ranked from small to large according to the hazard intensity of risk sources of different enterprises. According to the relative position of the ranking, the hazard intensity is graded into three levels, P1~P3, among which the hazard intensity value is 0 (no exhaust gas emission) and does not participate in the ranking. Enterprises in the top 1 / 3 of the hazard intensity ranking are P1 level, enterprises in the middle 1 / 3 are P2 level, and the 1 / 3 enterprises with the greatest hazard intensity are P3 level.

[0057] Step 2: Sensitivity grading

[0058] Sensitivity refers to the size of the population in the surrounding area of ​​the enterprise that may be harmed by the emission of toxic air pollutants by the enterprise. Among them, those with a population of more than 50,000 within a 5km radius are classified as E3, those with a population of 10,000 to 50,000 are classified as E2, and those with a population of less than 10,000 are classified as E1.

[0059] Step 3: Risk Source Classification

[0060] Considering the two factors of pollution source hazard intensity (P) and risk source receptor sensitivity (E), the risk source level is divided. Enterprises with the highest sensitivity and hazard intensity are classified as extremely high risk sources, with level IV; enterprises with one of the hazard intensity or sensitivity being the highest level and the other being the second highest level are classified as high risk sources, with level III; enterprises with one of the hazard intensity or sensitivity being the highest level and the other being the lowest level, or both being the second highest level are classified as medium risk sources, with level II; enterprises with one of the hazard intensity or sensitivity being the second highest level and the other being the lowest level, or both being the lowest level are classified as low risk sources, with level I. The specific classification method is shown in the table below.

[0061] Table 1 Risk source classification matrix

[0062] Preferably, in step S4, the steps of the regional atmospheric environment health classification method include:

[0063] Step 1: Regional Atmospheric Environmental Health Risk Assessment

[0064] Based on the exposure concentration of regional characteristic pollutants simulated by the atmospheric diffusion model CALPUFF, the exposure assessment and environmental health risk assessment models are used to calculate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of different toxic pollutants in the evaluation area one by one.

[0065] Calculate the exposure concentration of pollutant i , calculation formula reference:

[0066]

[0067] In the formula,

[0068] : Pollutant concentration in the air, ;

[0069] : Exposure time, h / d; 24h / d;

[0070] : Exposure frequency, d / a; generally taken as 365d / a;

[0071] : Exposure duration, a; 70a;

[0072] : Average exposure time through respiratory inhalation, 70×365d / a×24h;

[0073] Right now .

[0074] Reference for carcinogenic risk calculation formula:

[0075]

[0076] In the formula,

[0077] : carcinogenic risk of pollutant exposure pathway i, dimensionless;

[0078] : Exposure concentration of pollutant i ECinh;

[0079] : Inhalation unit cancer risk, ;

[0080] Non-carcinogenic risk calculation formula reference:

[0081]

[0082] In the formula,

[0083] : Hazard quotient of pollutants through inhalation, dimensionless;

[0084] : Exposure concentration of pollutant i ;

[0085] : Reference concentration of inhalation exposure to pollutants, ;

[0086] Reference for the calculation formula of maximum cancer risk and total risk:

[0087]

[0088]

[0089] Reference for the calculation formula of maximum non-carcinogenic risk and total risk:

[0090]

[0091]

[0092] Step 2: Regional Health Atmospheric Environmental Risk Classification

[0093] According to the results of regional atmospheric environmental health risk assessment, non-carcinogenic risk and carcinogenic risk are graded separately. For non-carcinogenic risk, the maximum value of the hazard quotient of a single target pollutant is considered at the same time. , and multiple target pollutants hazard quotient , divided into 4 levels from large to small. Very high risk; For high risk, for high risk; or Medium risk; , which is a low risk. For carcinogenic risk, the carcinogenic risk of a single target pollutant is considered at the same time and multiple target pollutants , divided into 4 levels from large to small. or Very high risk; or , which is high risk; or , which is medium risk; or , which is low risk.

[0094] Table 2 Regional atmospheric environmental health risk classification

[0095] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0096] The present invention uses the dynamic management system of emission inventory to deeply mine emission inventory data resources, dynamically obtain risk source information, and realize dynamic assessment and management of environmental health risks, thereby building an environmental health risk dynamic database. It can realize the integration of air pollution sources and ecological environmental health risk management and control business, and has strong support for the policy guidance of the whole process of environmental health risk prevention and control of toxic and harmful chemical substances such as heavy metals, volatile organic compounds and new pollutants. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0097] Figure 1 Flowchart of the present invention DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0098] In order to facilitate the understanding of the present invention, the present invention is described in more detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. However, the present invention can be implemented in many different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described in this specification. On the contrary, the purpose of providing these embodiments is to make the understanding of the disclosure of the present invention more thorough and comprehensive.

[0099] It should be noted that, unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used in this specification have the same meaning as those commonly understood by those skilled in the art of the present invention. The terms used in the specification of the present invention are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. The term "and / or" used in this specification includes any and all combinations of one or more related listed items.

[0100] As a scientific, practical and reliable support tool for dynamic management of pollution source information, the dynamic management system of emission inventory can realize functions such as online entry and management of air pollution source information, automatic verification of reported data, dynamic source classification management, automatic analysis and accounting of emission inventory, intelligent analysis of activity level data, and visual display of multi-dimensional analysis results.

[0101] like Figure 1 As shown, it is a flow chart of an implementation method of an environmental health risk determination method based on an emission inventory dynamic management system of the present invention. The specific method of the present invention is described below using a certain area in southern my country as an example. The method comprises the steps of:

[0102] Step S1: Analyze the emission characteristics of pollution sources in the target area and establish an emission information database of key risk sources in the region based on the emission inventory;

[0103] First, enter the emission inventory analysis module of the emission inventory dynamic management system, select the emission inventory project in the region, analyze the distribution of major emission industries and the characteristics of major emission pollutants, and identify key risk sources in combination with the characteristics of the industries to which key characteristic pollutants belong. This embodiment focuses on volatile organic compounds, and then identifies the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry, and rubber and plastic products industry with large VOCs emissions in the region, and includes enterprises in these industries as key risk sources and into the key risk source emission information database.

[0104] Step S2: Calculation of characteristic pollutant emissions from key risk sources;

[0105] This example uses the exhaust gas pollutant emission data obtained by calculating the emission coefficient using the second method provided by the emission inventory management system as an illustration of the specific method of the present invention:

[0106] First, enter the emission factor management module of the dynamic management system of the emission inventory, and select the emission factor list of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry, and rubber and plastic products industry with large VOCs emissions in the region. In this example, the VOCs emission factor (part) of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry is shown in the following table:

[0107] Table 3 VOCs emission coefficients of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry (partial)

[0108] According to the toxic effects of pollutants, characteristic pollutants of key concern are identified and screened as target pollutants. In this example, the target pollutants of key concern in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industries and their emission coefficients (partially) are shown in the following table:

[0109] Table 4 Target pollutant emission coefficients for chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry (partial)

[0110] Secondly, calculate the emission amount based on the determined target pollutants. In this example, two chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing companies are selected to calculate the target pollutants. The industries belong to coating manufacturing (2641) and chemical pesticide manufacturing (2631) respectively. The annual emission of target pollutants is calculated based on the emission coefficients in Table 4.

[0111] The calculation method for target pollutant emissions is as follows:

[0112] In this embodiment, the target pollutant emission calculation process is performed using the atmospheric pollutant dynamic emission inventory management system, which can realize batch calculation. Here, only the target pollutant emission calculation process for a specific period of time is shown. The specific implementation is as follows. Enter the emission inventory compilation page, select two chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing companies in the region, and obtain the specific VOCs emission information of the two companies in a certain hour in January 2022 as shown in the following table:

[0113] Table 5 VOCs emissions from two chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing enterprises in this example

[0114] According to the method of calculating target pollutants based on total VOCs emissions provided by the inventory compilation system, the target pollutant emissions are calculated for each enterprise.

[0115] Company 1:

[0116] Table 6 Target pollutant emissions of paint manufacturing enterprises in this example

[0117] Enterprise 2:

[0118] Table 7 Target pollutant emissions of chemical pesticide manufacturing enterprises in this example

[0119] Step S3: Use the atmospheric diffusion model CALPUFF to simulate the regional characteristic pollutant exposure concentration;

[0120] This embodiment provides an environmental health risk assessment method based on an emission inventory dynamic management system. According to the real-time exhaust gas emission data obtained from the key risk source emission information library established in step 1, a unit time exhaust gas emission inventory is generated, and the air quality of the pollution source is simulated based on the real-time unit time exhaust gas emission inventory, and then pollution prediction is performed. This solution uses an embedded emission inventory processing system to directly use the unit time emission data in the key risk source emission information library to create a pollution source emission inventory that meets the needs of the CALPUFF model, which can improve the data quality of the CALPUFF air quality model. The method steps for simulating regional characteristic pollutant exposure concentrations using the atmospheric diffusion model CALPUFF include:

[0121] (1) Based on the regional key risk source emission information database, obtain the basic data of risk sources and the unit time exhaust gas emission data of the specified period.

[0122] The basic data of risk sources include: chimney number, longitude, latitude, inner diameter of chimney outlet, height of chimney from the ground, chimney outlet temperature, chimney outlet speed, chimney flow rate, production status, and industry.

[0123] Waste gas emission data include: VOCs emissions per unit time, smoke temperature and flow rate.

[0124] (2) Screen and filter invalid and falsified data from the waste gas emission data of the risk source; convert the waste gas emission data into the measurement units required by the CALPUFF model; and generate a unit time waste gas emission inventory based on the basic data of the risk source and the processed unit data waste gas emission data.

[0125] (3) The exhaust gas emission inventory per unit time is an ASCII format file, which includes two parts: the file header and the file body. The file header includes the basic information of the pollution source: point source number, chimney bottom altitude, chimney height, outlet diameter, longitude and latitude, value affected by building downwash, pollutant list and relative molecular weight. The file body includes the emission information of each pollution source per hour: the emission amount, flow rate, smoke temperature, etc. of each pollutant.

[0126] (4) Based on the CALPUFF model, the air quality of pollution sources is simulated using the exhaust gas emission inventory per unit time. Pollution prediction is carried out based on the simulation results to evaluate the exposure concentration of regional characteristic pollutants.

[0127] This embodiment uses the parallel version of the CALPUFF diffusion model and the WRF meteorological model based on a high-performance computing server to predict the impact of target pollutants on surrounding sensitive areas. Both models use UTM projection, and the WRF meteorological model parameter settings are shown in the following table.

[0128] Table 8 WRF meteorological model parameter settings in this embodiment

[0129] The ground meteorological data selected in this embodiment comes from the ground meteorological data of all stations in the region throughout 2022.

[0130] In this embodiment, the three-dimensional hourly meteorological field is generated by running the CALMET model, which can predict the impact of atmospheric characteristic pollutants on surrounding sensitive points under normal operating conditions of the waste incineration facility. The CALMET model contains 10 layers in the vertical direction, with the top layer heights of 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1200, 2000, 3000 and 4000m respectively, the horizontal grid resolution is 3km, 263 grid points in the east-west direction, and 263 grid points in the north-south direction.

[0131] Step S4: Risk source classification and regional atmospheric environmental health risk classification.

[0132] In this embodiment, the steps of risk source classification determination are as follows:

[0133] Step S411: Calculation and classification of risk source hazard intensity

[0134] In this embodiment, the calculation and classification of risk source hazard intensity are based on the two chemical raw material and chemical manufacturing enterprises listed in step 2. The target pollutant emission information of the two enterprises is as follows:

[0135] Table 9 Target pollutant emissions of two chemical raw materials and chemical products enterprises in this example

[0136] Table 10 Target pollutant risk factors for two chemical raw materials and chemical products companies in this example (partial)

[0137] Note: IRIS stands for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Risk System; RSL stands for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regional Screening Level.

[0138] (1) Calculation of risk source hazard intensity:

[0139] The calculation table for the carcinogenic hazard intensity and non-carcinogenic hazard intensity of the target pollutants of Enterprise 1 is as follows:

[0140] Table 11 Hazard intensity calculation table for a certain environmental protection coating technology company (coating manufacturing)

[0141] The calculation table for the carcinogenic hazard intensity and non-carcinogenic hazard intensity of the target pollutants of Enterprise 2 is as follows:

[0142] Table 12 Hazard intensity calculation table for XXXX Chemical Co., Ltd. (chemical pesticide manufacturing)

[0143] (2) Risk source hazard intensity classification:

[0144] In this embodiment, based on the calculation of the hazard intensity of risk sources, industrial enterprises of the same industry category in the evaluation area are ranked from small to large according to the hazard intensity of risk sources of different enterprises.

[0145] In this embodiment, the ranking results of the hazard intensity of all paint manufacturing and chemical pesticide manufacturing enterprises in the region are not displayed here. According to the relative position of the ranking, the hazard intensity is divided into three levels, P1 to P3. Among them, the hazard intensity value of 0 (no exhaust gas emissions) does not participate in the ranking. Enterprises in the top 1 / 3 of the hazard intensity ranking are P1 level, enterprises in the middle 1 / 3 are P2 level, and the 1 / 3 of enterprises with the greatest hazard intensity are P3 level.

[0146] Enterprise 1 (XXX Environmental Protection Paint Technology Co., Ltd., paint manufacturing industry) has a carcinogenic hazard intensity classification of P3 and a non-carcinogenic hazard intensity classification of P2, so the hazard intensity classification is P3.

[0147] The carcinogenic hazard intensity classification of Enterprise 2 (XX Chemical Co., Ltd., chemical pesticide manufacturing industry) is P1, and the non-carcinogenic hazard intensity classification is P2, so the hazard intensity classification is P2.

[0148] Step S412: Risk source sensitivity grading

[0149] Sensitivity refers to the size of the population in the surrounding area of ​​the enterprise that may be harmed by the emission of toxic air pollutants by the enterprise. Among them, those with a population of more than 50,000 within a 5km radius are classified as E3, those with a population of 10,000 to 50,000 are classified as E2, and those with a population of less than 10,000 are classified as E1.

[0150] In this embodiment, the risk source sensitivity classification takes the two chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing enterprises listed in step 2 as examples. The method for obtaining the population situation around these two enterprises is based on the dynamic management system of the emission inventory, and the geographical location of the two enterprises is obtained. The system's built-in map tool is used to obtain the population within a circular area with a radius of 5km with the enterprise as the center.

[0151] The population situation and sensitivity level in the areas surrounding the two companies are as follows:

[0152] Table 13 Population situation around two chemical raw materials and chemical products enterprises in this example

[0153] Step S413: Risk source classification

[0154] Considering the two factors of pollution source hazard intensity (P) and risk source receptor sensitivity (E), the risk source level is divided. Enterprises with the highest sensitivity and hazard intensity are classified as extremely high risk sources, with level IV; enterprises with one of the hazard intensity or sensitivity being the highest level and the other being the second highest level are classified as high risk sources, with level III; enterprises with one of the hazard intensity or sensitivity being the highest level and the other being the lowest level, or both being the second highest level are classified as medium risk sources, with level II; enterprises with one of the hazard intensity or sensitivity being the second highest level and the other being the lowest level, or both being the lowest level are classified as low risk sources, with level I. The specific classification method is shown in the table below.

[0155] Table 14 Risk source classification matrix

[0156] In this embodiment, the hazard intensity classification of Enterprise 1 (XXX Environmental Protection Paint Technology Co., Ltd., paint manufacturing industry) is P3, and the sensitivity classification is E2, so the risk source classification of Enterprise 1 is III; the hazard intensity classification of Enterprise 2 (XXX Chemical Co., Ltd., chemical pesticide manufacturing industry) is P2, and the sensitivity classification is E1, so the risk source classification of Enterprise 2 is I.

[0157] In this embodiment, the regional atmospheric environmental health risk classification is determined as follows:

[0158] In this embodiment, the atmospheric diffusion model CALPUFF is used in step S3 to simulate the exposure concentration of regional characteristic pollutants, and the NO.7076 unit grid is selected to perform atmospheric environmental health risk assessment and classification description.

[0159] Step S421: Regional atmospheric environmental health risk assessment

[0160] In this embodiment, the concentrations of some target pollutants simulated by step S3 for the NO.7076 unit grid are shown in the following table:

[0161] Table 15 Target pollutant concentrations of some NO.7076 grid cells

[0162] The toxicity parameters related to the concentration of some target pollutants in the NO.7076 unit grid are shown in the following table:

[0163] Table 16 Toxicity parameters of some target pollutants in NO.7076 unit grid

[0164] Note: IRIS stands for the US Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Risk System; RSL stands for the US Environmental Protection Agency Regional Screening Value; S stands for the US Soil Screening Guideline Value

[0165] In this embodiment, the exposure concentration of the target pollutant i is Calculation formula reference:

[0166]

[0167] In the formula, : Pollutant concentration in the air, , : Exposure time, h / d; 24h / d, : Exposure frequency, d / a; generally taken as 365d / a, : Exposure duration, a; 70a, : Average exposure time through respiratory inhalation, 70×365d / a×24h, that is .

[0168] Reference for carcinogenic risk calculation formula:

[0169]

[0170] In the formula, : carcinogenic risk of pollutant exposure pathway i, dimensionless; : Exposure concentration of pollutant i ; IUR: Inhalation Unit Cancer Risk, ;

[0171] Non-carcinogenic risk calculation formula reference:

[0172]

[0173] In the formula, : Hazard quotient of pollutants through inhalation, dimensionless; : Exposure concentration of pollutant i ; : Reference concentration of inhalation exposure to pollutants, ;

[0174] Reference for the calculation formula of maximum cancer risk and total risk:

[0175]

[0176]

[0177] Reference for the calculation formula of maximum non-carcinogenic risk and total risk:

[0178]

[0179]

[0180] The NO.7076 unit grid risk calculation table is as follows:

[0181] Table 17 Risk calculation table of some target pollutants in NO.7076 unit grid

[0182] In this embodiment, the maximum carcinogenic risk of the NO.7076 unit grid is 1.31E-03, and the total carcinogenic risk is 1.44E-03; the maximum non-carcinogenic risk is 2.18E+01, and the total and non-carcinogenic risks are 2.23E+01.

[0183] Step S422: Regional healthy atmospheric environment risk classification

[0184] According to the atmospheric environmental health risk assessment result of the NO.7076 unit grid in step S421, the non-carcinogenic risk and the carcinogenic risk are graded respectively.

[0185] For non-carcinogenic risks, the maximum hazard quotient of a single target pollutant is considered simultaneously , and multiple target pollutants hazard quotient , divided into 4 levels from large to small. Very high risk; or For high risk, for high risk; or Medium risk; , which is a low risk. The atmospheric environmental health risk assessment result of the NO.7076 unit grid is that the maximum non-carcinogenic risk is 2.18E+01, and the total and non-carcinogenic risk is 2.23E+01. Therefore, the non-carcinogenic risk level of this unit grid is high risk.

[0186] For carcinogenic risk, both the carcinogenic risk of a single target pollutant (Rmax) and the carcinogenic risk of multiple target pollutants (Rsum) are considered, and divided into four levels from large to small. Very high risk; or , which is high risk; or , which is medium risk; , which is a low risk. The atmospheric environmental health risk assessment result of the NO.7076 unit grid is that the maximum cancer risk is 1.31E-03 and the total cancer risk is 1.44E-03. Therefore, the cancer risk level of this unit grid is extremely high risk.

[0187] The above disclosure is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the present invention is not limited thereto. Any non-creative changes that can be thought of by a person skilled in the art, as well as several improvements and modifications made without departing from the principle of the present invention, should fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining environmental health risks based on a dynamic management system for emission inventories, characterized in that The following steps are involved: Step S1: Analyze the emission characteristics of pollution sources in the target area and establish an emission information database of key risk sources in the region based on the emission inventory; Step S2: Calculation of characteristic pollutant emissions from key risk sources; Step S3: Use the atmospheric diffusion model CALPUFF to simulate the regional characteristic pollutant exposure concentration; Step S4: Risk source classification and regional atmospheric environmental health risk classification.

2. According to claim 1, a method for determining environmental health risks based on an emission inventory dynamic management system is characterized by: The steps S1, S2 and S3 are all based on the analysis operation of the emission inventory dynamic management system, and the necessary information for determining environmental health risks is directly output by the system.

3. The environmental health risk determination method based on the emission inventory dynamic management system according to claim 1 is characterized by: The dynamic management system of the emission inventory can be combined with environmental big data mining technology to clean and integrate pollution source data such as pollution source census, annual environmental statistics, pollution discharge declaration, total amount verification and online monitoring of key pollution sources. At the same time, the system's embedded work log dynamic management module will feedback the changes in pollution sources such as point sources, surface sources and mobile sources involved in air pollution prevention and control work to the dynamic management system of the emission inventory step by step, dynamically adjust the basic information, activity level and pollutant emissions of relevant pollution sources, and realize dynamic updating of pollution source information.

4. The environmental health risk determination method based on the emission inventory dynamic management system according to claim 1 is characterized by: In step S1, according to the emission inventory source classification system, the statistical analysis function module of the emission inventory dynamic management system is used to analyze the emission characteristics of pollution sources in the target area, identify key emission industries and pollutants in the area, and establish an emission information database for key risk sources.

5. The environmental health risk determination method based on the emission inventory dynamic management system according to claim 1 is characterized by: In step S2, the emission amount of characteristic pollutants from key risk sources is calculated, and based on the dynamic management system of the emission inventory, the emission amount of characteristic pollutants from key risk sources can be calculated yearly, monthly and hourly.

6. The environmental health risk determination method based on the emission inventory dynamic management system according to claim 1 is characterized by: In step S2, the emission amount of characteristic pollutants from key risk sources is calculated, and the emission inventory dynamic management system provides the following two methods: (1) Exhaust gas pollutant emission data directly obtained based on survey / monitoring results; The exhaust gas pollutant emission data directly obtained based on the survey / monitoring results include: Based on the key risk source emission information database, the industrial enterprise waste gas pollutant emission data is directly obtained, including waste gas emission port information, waste gas emission volume, and the emission volume of pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, ammonia, arsenic, lead, cadmium, chromium, and mercury. The enterprise waste gas emission port information includes the emission port location (latitude and longitude), emission port number, and emission port height (meters); the pollutant emission data includes the industrial enterprise waste gas emission volume (10,000 cubic meters), volatile organic compound emission (kilograms), toxic heavy metal emission (kilograms), and single organic emission (kilograms). (2) Exhaust gas pollutant emission data obtained based on emission coefficient calculation. 1) Screening of target pollutants. Use the statistical analysis function module of the emission inventory dynamic management system to analyze and select pollutants with large emissions and high health hazards as target pollutants based on the characteristic pollutants emitted by the industries to which the key risk sources belong and their toxic effects. 2) Determine the target pollutant emission coefficient. Use the inventory compilation function module of the emission inventory dynamic management system to match the target pollutant emission coefficient. For target pollutants whose exhaust gas pollutant emission data cannot be directly obtained through the emission coefficient library of the emission inventory management system, the emission coefficient can be determined by the following two methods, and the constructed emission coefficient is organized into the emission coefficient library of the emission inventory management system for archiving management: First, a target pollutant fingerprint library is established based on the height of the risk source exhaust chimney, the monitored pollution factors, the geographical information of the monitoring sites, and the distribution of surrounding sensitive points in the key risk source emission information database; and the emission coefficients of target pollutants from risk sources are constructed by combining the material balance method and field investigation and monitoring. Second, based on literature research and compilation methods, determine the industry emission coefficient and related information, including pollutant name, CAS number, industry, coefficient type, process, product, coefficient, unit, number of samples, deviation and location, etc. The unit of emission coefficient is mg / m 3 Or wt%. 3) Calculation of target pollutant emission data. According to the industry type, process, product and other information of different enterprises, select appropriate emission coefficients, and calculate the target pollutant emissions of different industries and different types of enterprises through waste gas emissions, total VOCs emissions and emission coefficients.

7. The environmental health risk determination method based on the emission inventory dynamic management system according to claim 1 is characterized by: In step S3, the atmospheric diffusion model CALPUFF is used to simulate the regional characteristic pollutant exposure concentration, and the emission inventory processing system embedded in the management system is used for operation. The method steps include: (1) Based on the regional key risk source emission information database, obtain the basic data of risk sources and the unit time exhaust gas emission data of the specified period. (2) Screen and filter invalid and falsified data from the waste gas emission data of the risk source; convert the waste gas emission data into the measurement units required by the CALPUFF model; and generate a unit time waste gas emission inventory based on the basic data of the risk source and the processed unit data waste gas emission data. (3) Based on the CALPUFF model, the air quality of pollution sources is simulated using the exhaust gas emission inventory per unit time. Pollution prediction is carried out based on the simulation results to evaluate the exposure concentration of regional characteristic pollutants.

8. The method for determining environmental health risks based on the dynamic management system of emission inventory according to claim 7 is characterized by: (1) Basic data of risk sources include: chimney number, longitude, latitude, inner diameter of chimney outlet, height of chimney from the ground, chimney outlet temperature, chimney outlet speed, chimney flow rate, production status, and industry. (2) The exhaust gas emission data per unit time in a specified period of time include: VOCs emission per unit time, smoke temperature and flow rate.

9. The method for determining environmental health risks based on the dynamic management system of emission inventory according to claim 1 is characterized by: In step S4, the risk source classification determination method and the regional atmospheric environment health risk classification determination method include a risk source classification method and a regional atmospheric environment health classification method. (1) The steps of the risk source classification method include: Step 1: Calculation and classification of risk source hazard intensity The hazard intensity of risk sources is mainly calculated semi-quantitatively for enterprises in the region based on the degree of possible carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic hazards of pollutants emitted by industrial enterprises' waste gas. Based on the calculation of the hazard intensity of risk sources, industrial enterprises of the same industry category in the evaluation area are ranked from small to large according to the hazard intensity of risk sources of different enterprises. According to the relative position of the ranking, the hazard intensity is graded into three levels, P1~P3, among which the hazard intensity value is 0 (no exhaust gas emission) and does not participate in the ranking. Enterprises in the top 1 / 3 of the hazard intensity ranking are P1 level, enterprises in the middle 1 / 3 are P2 level, and the 1 / 3 enterprises with the greatest hazard intensity are P3 level. Step 2: Sensitivity grading Sensitivity refers to the size of the population in the surrounding area of ​​the enterprise that may be harmed by the emission of toxic air pollutants by the enterprise. Among them, those with a population of more than 50,000 within a 5km radius are classified as E3, those with a population of 10,000 to 50,000 are classified as E2, and those with a population of less than 10,000 are classified as E1. Step 3: Risk Source Classification Considering the two factors of pollution source hazard intensity (P) and risk source receptor sensitivity (E), the risk source level is divided. Enterprises with the highest sensitivity and hazard intensity are classified as extremely high risk sources, with level IV; enterprises with one of the hazard intensity or sensitivity being the highest level and the other being the second highest level are classified as high risk sources, with level III; enterprises with one of the hazard intensity or sensitivity being the highest level and the other being the lowest level, or both being the second highest level, are classified as medium risk sources, with level II; enterprises with one of the hazard intensity or sensitivity being the second highest level and the other being the lowest level, or both being the lowest level, are classified as low risk sources, with level I. (2) The steps of regional atmospheric environmental health classification include: Step 1: Regional Atmospheric Environmental Health Risk Assessment Based on the exposure concentration of regional characteristic pollutants simulated by the atmospheric diffusion model CALPUFF, the exposure assessment and environmental health risk assessment models are used to calculate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of different toxic pollutants in the evaluation area one by one. Step 2: Regional Health Atmospheric Environmental Risk Classification According to the results of the regional atmospheric environmental health risk assessment, non-carcinogenic risks and carcinogenic risks are graded separately. For non-carcinogenic risks, the maximum hazard quotient of a single target pollutant (HQmax) and the hazard quotient of multiple target pollutants (HQsum) are considered at the same time, and are divided into 4 levels from large to small. Among them, HQmax>3 or HQsum>30 is an extremely high risk; 2<HQmax≤3 or 20<HQsum≤30 is a high risk; 1<HQmax≤2 or 10<HQsum≤20 is a medium risk; HQmax<1 or HQsum≤10 is a low risk. For carcinogenic risks, the carcinogenic risk of a single target pollutant (Rmax) and the carcinogenic risk of multiple target pollutants (Rsum) are considered at the same time, and are divided into 4 levels from large to small. Among them, Rmax>10 -4 or Rsum>10 -3 Very high risk; 10 -5 <Rmax≤10 -4 or 10 -4 <Rsum≤10 -3 , high risk; 10 -6 <Rmax≤10 -5 or 10 -5 <Rsum≤10 -4 , medium risk; Rmax≤10 -6 or Rsum≤10 -5 , which is low risk.

Images