Power grid electricity purchase transaction method and system based on risk decision

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of data analysis, in particular to a power grid electricity purchase transaction method based on risk decision, which comprises the following steps: determining the project equipment category of each electric device according to the frequency difference reference value and the estimated time length reference value of each electric device; determining a prediction processing mode according to the project equipment category of the electric equipment; if the electric equipment is one type of electric equipment, determining a prediction strategy according to whether the electric equipment has associated project equipment or not; if the electric equipment is the second type of electric equipment, determining the predicted electricity consumption according to the electricity consumption reference value of the corresponding electric equipment and the number of the corresponding electric equipment in the target project; adjusting the secondary predicted electric quantity according to the power consumption influence parameter of the target project; determining whether to carry out prediction risk prompt according to the project prediction electric quantity difference value; according to the invention, the accuracy of the electric quantity prediction result is improved, and the risk of the electricity purchase transaction decision result is reduced.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of data analysis, and in particular to a risk decision-based power grid electricity purchase transaction method and system. Background Art

[0002] Electricity forecasting is an important basis for making electricity trading decisions. The low accuracy of electricity forecast results will lead to the fact that the electricity trading decisions made cannot guarantee the balance of electricity supply and demand of power grid enterprises and cannot effectively respond to electricity price fluctuations. In the electricity consumption forecasting process of the existing risk-based decision-making power grid power purchase trading methods, the forecasting method often estimates electricity based on historical experience and fixed forecasting models. However, there are many influencing factors in the actual forecasting process. For example, the production link of the power-consuming equipment and the environmental factors of the project will affect the actual electricity consumption, resulting in low accuracy of the electricity consumption forecast results for the target project, which in turn leads to a high risk in the decision-making results of the power grid power purchase trading process. Therefore, how to effectively improve the accuracy of electricity consumption forecasting is an urgent problem to be solved by technical personnel in this field. Summary of the invention

[0003] To this end, the present invention provides a power grid electricity purchase transaction method and system based on risk decision-making, so as to overcome the problem that the prior art fails to adjust the predicted electricity consumption of the power-consuming equipment according to the changes in the electricity consumption of the associated project equipment, resulting in low accuracy of the electricity consumption prediction results for the target project, and further resulting in the decision results of the power grid enterprises in the electricity purchase transaction process still have a high risk.

[0004] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a risk decision-making-based power grid electricity purchase transaction method, comprising:

[0005] Obtain frequency difference reference values ​​and estimated duration reference values ​​of each electrical equipment in the target project, and determine the project equipment category of each electrical equipment according to the frequency difference reference values ​​and estimated duration reference values ​​of each electrical equipment;

[0006] For power-consuming equipment of a single project equipment category, the forecasting processing method is determined according to the project equipment category of the power-consuming equipment;

[0007] If the electric equipment is a type of electric equipment, a prediction strategy is determined based on whether the electric equipment has associated project equipment. The prediction strategy includes determining the predicted power consumption based on the reference value of the power consumption of the electric equipment and the number of the electric equipment in the target project, or determining the associated adjustment method based on the associated relationship between each associated project equipment and the electric equipment.

[0008] If the power-consuming equipment is a Class II power-consuming equipment, its predicted power consumption shall be determined based on the reference value of the power consumption of the power-consuming equipment and the number of power-consuming equipment in the target project;

[0009] The associated adjustment method includes determining the production impact coefficient according to the proportion of a type of associated project equipment with which the electrical equipment has a production association relationship and the planned output of the target project, or determining the transportation impact coefficient of the corresponding associated project equipment according to the transportation difference coefficient of the working scene of the target project and the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment;

[0010] Determine the secondary predicted power consumption according to the predicted power consumption of each power-consuming device, and adjust the secondary predicted power consumption according to the power consumption influencing parameters of the target project;

[0011] Determine whether to issue a forecast risk warning based on the project's forecast electricity quantity difference value.

[0012] Furthermore, the frequency difference reference value and the estimated duration reference value of each electrical equipment in the target project are collected, and the project equipment category is determined according to the frequency difference reference value and the estimated duration reference value of each electrical equipment. The project equipment category includes:

[0013] A type of electrical equipment whose frequency difference reference value is greater than a preset frequency difference reference value or whose estimated duration reference value is less than or equal to a preset estimated duration reference value;

[0014] Class II electrical equipment whose frequency difference reference value is less than or equal to the preset frequency difference reference value and whose estimated duration reference value is greater than the preset estimated duration reference value.

[0015] Furthermore, for the electric equipment of a single project equipment category, the prediction processing method is determined according to the project equipment category of the electric equipment, and the prediction processing method includes:

[0016] If the project equipment category of the electric equipment is a type of electric equipment, the prediction strategy is determined based on whether the electric equipment has associated project equipment;

[0017] If the project equipment category of the power-consuming equipment is Class II power-consuming equipment, its predicted power consumption shall be determined based on the power consumption reference value of the power-consuming equipment and the number of power-consuming equipment in the target project;

[0018] The power consumption reference value is an average value of the total power consumption of the same type of power-consuming equipment in each reference historical project, and the reference historical project is determined according to the similarity of project features between each historical project and the target project.

[0019] Furthermore, if the electrical equipment is a Class I electrical equipment, it is detected whether the electrical equipment has associated project equipment, and a prediction strategy is determined according to whether the electrical equipment has associated project equipment. The prediction strategy includes:

[0020] If there is no associated project equipment for the power-consuming equipment, the predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment shall be determined based on the usage reference value of the power-consuming equipment and the average power consumption reference value;

[0021] If there are associated project equipments for the electric equipment, the associated adjustment method is determined according to the associated relationship between each associated project equipment and the electric equipment.

[0022] Furthermore, if there are associated project equipments in the power-consuming equipment, the associated adjustment method is determined according to the associated relationship between the power-consuming equipment and each associated project equipment, and the associated adjustment method includes determining the production impact coefficient according to the proportion of a type of power-consuming equipment of the associated project equipments with which the power-consuming equipments have a production associated relationship and the planned output of the target project, or determining the transportation impact coefficient of the corresponding associated project equipment according to the transportation difference coefficient of the working scene of the target project and the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment;

[0023] The association relationship of the associated project equipment includes a production association relationship and a transportation association relationship.

[0024] Furthermore, if the associated project equipment of the electric equipment is in a production-associated relationship, the production impact coefficient is determined according to the proportion of a type of electric equipment of the associated project equipment with which the electric equipment has a production-associated relationship and the planned output of the target project, and an increase adjustment is made for the initial predicted power consumption of the electric equipment according to the production impact coefficient;

[0025] The increase in the initial predicted electricity consumption is positively correlated with the production impact coefficient of the associated project equipment.

[0026] Furthermore, if the associated project equipment of the electric equipment is in a transportation association relationship, the transportation impact coefficient of the corresponding associated project equipment is determined according to the transportation difference coefficient of the working scene of the target project and the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment;

[0027] If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is not 0, the transportation impact coefficient is determined according to formula (1):

[0028]

[0029] In formula (1), is the transportation difference coefficient of the working scenario of the target project, is the absolute value of the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment, and is the impact coefficient corresponding to the transportation difference coefficient and the quantity change value respectively;

[0030] According to the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment, the predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment is increased and adjusted. If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is greater than 0, the increase value of the predicted power consumption is positively correlated with the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment. If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is less than 0, the increase value of the predicted power consumption is negatively correlated with the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment.

[0031] If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is 0, the transportation impact coefficient is positively correlated with the transportation difference coefficient of the work scenario of the target project;

[0032] An increase adjustment is performed on the initial predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment according to the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment, and the increase value of the initial predicted power consumption is positively correlated with the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment.

[0033] Further, the secondary predicted power is determined according to the predicted power consumption of each power-consuming device, and the secondary predicted power is increased and adjusted according to the power consumption influencing parameters of the target project;

[0034] The increase value of the secondary predicted electricity quantity is positively correlated with the power consumption influencing parameter of the target project.

[0035] Furthermore, whether to issue a forecast risk warning is determined based on the project forecast power difference value;

[0036] If the project's predicted electricity difference value is greater than the preset electricity difference value, the project user will be given a prediction risk warning and the predicted electricity will be corrected;

[0037] The project predicted electricity quantity difference value is the absolute value of the difference between the project predicted electricity quantity and the secondary predicted electricity quantity.

[0038] The present invention also provides a risk decision-making-based power grid electricity purchase transaction system, comprising:

[0039] A project storage module, which is used to store the project information of the target project and each historical project;

[0040] A data analysis module, which is connected to the history storage module, and is used to obtain the frequency difference reference value and the estimated duration reference value of each electrical equipment, determine the project equipment category of the electrical equipment according to the frequency difference reference value and the estimated duration reference value of each electrical equipment, and determine the prediction processing method according to the project equipment category of the electrical equipment;

[0041] A first processing module, which is connected to the data analysis module, and is used to determine the predicted power consumption according to the reference value of the power consumption of the power-applying equipment and the number of the power-applying equipment in the target project;

[0042] A second processing module is connected to the data analysis module and is used to detect whether the power-consuming device has associated project equipment, determine a prediction strategy based on whether the power-consuming device has associated project equipment, and determine predicted power consumption of the power-consuming device based on the prediction strategy;

[0043] an association analysis module, which is connected to the second processing module, and is used to detect the association relationship between each associated project device and the electric device, determine the association adjustment method of the electric device according to the association relationship between each associated project device and the electric device, and adjust the initial predicted power consumption of the electric device according to the association adjustment method to obtain the predicted power consumption of the electric device;

[0044] The risk warning module is connected to the first processing module and the second processing module respectively, and is used to determine whether to issue a forecast risk warning according to the difference value of the project forecast electricity quantity.

[0045] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effect of the present invention lies in that the technical scheme of the present invention determines the prediction strategy according to whether there is any associated project equipment with the power-consuming equipment, and determines the associated adjustment method according to the associated relationship between the associated project equipment and the power-consuming equipment, so that the prediction process for the power consumption of the power-consuming equipment takes into account the production link of the power-consuming equipment in the actual scenario and the influence of project environmental factors on the power consumption prediction results. The present invention improves the accuracy of the power consumption prediction results, thereby reducing the risks of the power purchase transaction decision results.

[0046] Furthermore, the present invention determines the project equipment category based on the frequency difference reference value and the estimated duration reference value of each power consumer, and determines the prediction processing method based on the project equipment category of the power consumer. When faced with power consumers of different project equipment categories, the prediction processing method is selected in a targeted manner. If the project equipment category of the power consumer is a type of power consumer, its associated project equipment is analyzed. If the project equipment category of the power consumer is a type of power consumer, its predicted power consumption is determined only based on the power consumption reference value of the power consumer and the number of power consumers. This ensures the accuracy of the power prediction results while taking into account the processing efficiency of the power estimation process.

[0047] Furthermore, the present invention determines the association adjustment method according to the association relationship between the power-consuming equipment and each associated project equipment. Different association relationships involve different influencing factors. The association adjustment method is selected in a targeted manner according to the association relationship, thereby further improving the accuracy of the electricity forecast results. The present invention reduces the risks of the power purchase transaction decision results.

[0048] Furthermore, the present invention determines the transportation impact coefficient of the corresponding associated project equipment according to the transportation difference coefficient of the working scenario of the target project and the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment for the associated project equipment with a transportation association relationship, and adjusts the power forecast result according to the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment, thereby ensuring that the impact of the working environment difference on the associated project equipment is taken into account in the power forecast process, avoiding the impact of the working conditions of the associated project equipment on the power-consuming equipment. The present invention improves the accuracy of the power forecast result, thereby reducing the risk of the power purchase transaction decision result. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0049] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the power grid electricity purchasing transaction method based on risk decision-making of the present invention;

[0050] Figure 2 A flow chart of the present invention for determining a prediction processing method according to a project equipment category of an electrical equipment;

[0051] Figure 3 A flow chart of the present invention for determining an associated adjustment method of an electric device according to an associated relationship between the electric device and each associated project device;

[0052] Figure 4 This is a module connection diagram of the grid power purchasing transaction system based on risk decision-making of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0053] In order to make the objects and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described below in conjunction with embodiments; it should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the present invention.

[0054] The preferred embodiments of the present invention are described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood by those skilled in the art that these embodiments are only used to explain the technical principles of the present invention and are not intended to limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0055] It should be noted that, in the description of the present invention, terms such as "up", "down", "left", "right", "inside" and "outside" indicating directions or positional relationships are based on the directions or positional relationships shown in the drawings. This is merely for the convenience of description and does not indicate or imply that the device or element must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation. Therefore, it cannot be understood as a limitation on the present invention.

[0056] In addition, it should be noted that in the description of the present invention, unless otherwise clearly specified and limited, the terms "installed", "connected", and "connected" should be understood in a broad sense, for example, it can be a fixed connection, a detachable connection, or an integral connection; it can be a mechanical connection or an electrical connection; it can be a direct connection, or it can be indirectly connected through an intermediate medium, or it can be the internal communication of two components. For those skilled in the art, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood according to specific circumstances.

[0057] See also Figure 1 As shown, it is a schematic diagram of a power grid electricity purchase transaction method based on risk decision-making of the present invention. The present invention provides a power grid electricity purchase transaction method based on risk decision-making, including:

[0058] Obtain frequency difference reference values ​​and estimated duration reference values ​​of each electrical equipment in the target project, and determine the project equipment category of each electrical equipment according to the frequency difference reference values ​​and estimated duration reference values ​​of each electrical equipment;

[0059] For power-consuming equipment of a single project equipment category, the forecasting processing method is determined according to the project equipment category of the power-consuming equipment;

[0060] If the electric equipment is a type of electric equipment, a prediction strategy is determined based on whether the electric equipment has associated project equipment. The prediction strategy includes determining the predicted power consumption based on the reference value of the power consumption of the electric equipment and the number of the electric equipment in the target project, or determining the associated adjustment method based on the associated relationship between each associated project equipment and the electric equipment.

[0061] If the power-consuming equipment is a Class II power-consuming equipment, its predicted power consumption shall be determined based on the reference value of the power consumption of the power-consuming equipment and the number of power-consuming equipment in the target project;

[0062] The associated adjustment method includes determining the production impact coefficient according to the proportion of a type of associated project equipment with which the electrical equipment has a production association relationship and the planned output of the target project, or determining the transportation impact coefficient of the corresponding associated project equipment according to the transportation difference coefficient of the working scene of the target project and the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment;

[0063] Determine the secondary predicted power consumption according to the predicted power consumption of each power-consuming device, and adjust the secondary predicted power consumption according to the power consumption influencing parameters of the target project;

[0064] Determine whether to issue a forecast risk warning based on the project's forecast electricity quantity difference value.

[0065] The application scenario of the present invention is the electricity purchase transaction process between a mining site and a power grid company. The projects in the present invention include target projects and historical projects. The target projects are projects that are currently undergoing electricity forecasting. The power-consuming equipment in the present invention includes but is not limited to power transportation equipment, mining equipment, ventilation equipment, lighting equipment, and monitoring equipment. A single power-consuming equipment is a collection of equipment of the same model within the project that relies on electricity to drive or operate.

[0066] Specifically, the frequency difference reference value and estimated duration reference value of each electrical equipment in the target project are collected, and the project equipment category is determined according to the frequency difference reference value and estimated duration reference value of each electrical equipment. The project equipment category includes:

[0067] A type of electrical equipment whose frequency difference reference value is greater than a preset frequency difference reference value or whose estimated duration reference value is less than or equal to a preset estimated duration reference value;

[0068] Class II electrical equipment whose frequency difference reference value is less than or equal to the preset frequency difference reference value and whose estimated duration reference value is greater than the preset estimated duration reference value.

[0069] Among them, the frequency difference reference value fi is the frequency difference value of the ith device in the set of each electrical device, v is the number of devices in the set of each electrical device, b is the number of complete power consumption processes in the historical power consumption records of the ith device in the set of power-consuming devices, t a is the duration of the ath power consumption interval in the historical power consumption record of the ith device in the set of power-consuming devices, t0 is the average duration of each power consumption interval in the historical power consumption record of the ith device in the set of power-consuming devices, the power consumption interval duration is the duration between the completion of a complete power consumption process of the power-consuming device and the start of the next power consumption process, the estimated duration reference value is the average duration of each power consumption in the historical power consumption record of each power-consuming device, and the power consumption duration is the duration taken by the power-consuming device to complete a complete power consumption process. Users can set the preset frequency difference reference value and the preset estimated duration reference value according to actual needs and historical records, and users can accurately estimate the power consumption results of the equipment. The higher the accuracy requirement, the larger the value of the preset frequency difference reference value, and the larger the value of the preset estimated time reference value. A method for determining the preset frequency difference reference value is provided, and the minimum value of the frequency difference reference value of each type of electrical equipment in the historical records that meet the user's requirements for the accuracy of the equipment power consumption estimation results is recorded as the preset frequency difference reference value. A method for determining the preset estimated time reference value is provided, and the maximum value of the estimated time reference value of each type of electrical equipment in the historical records that meet the user's requirements for the accuracy of the equipment power consumption estimation results is recorded as the preset estimated time reference value. A value for the preset estimated time reference value is provided, and the value of the preset estimated time reference value is 5h.

[0070] Specifically, for power-consuming equipment of a single project equipment category, the forecast processing method is determined according to the project equipment category of the power-consuming equipment. The forecast processing methods include:

[0071] If the project equipment category of the electric equipment is a type of electric equipment, the prediction strategy is determined based on whether the electric equipment has associated project equipment;

[0072] If the project equipment category of the power-consuming equipment is Class II power-consuming equipment, its predicted power consumption shall be determined based on the power consumption reference value of the power-consuming equipment and the number of power-consuming equipment in the target project;

[0073] The power consumption reference value is an average value of the total power consumption of the same type of power-consuming equipment in each reference historical project, and the reference historical project is determined according to the similarity of project features between each historical project and the target project.

[0074] Among them, the project feature similarity is determined according to the project cycle difference value and the project planned output difference value of each historical project and the target project, and the project feature similarity S=Z×ρ1+P×ρ2, Z is the project cycle difference value of each historical project and the target project, the project cycle difference value is the absolute value of the difference in execution cycle length between each historical project and the target project, P is the project planned output difference value of each historical project and the target project, the project planned output difference value is the absolute value of the planned output difference between each historical project and the target project, ρ1 and ρ2 are the influence coefficients corresponding to the project cycle difference value and the project planned output difference value, respectively, and a value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the project cycle difference value is provided, and the value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the project cycle difference value is 0.5, and a value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the project planned output difference value is provided, and the value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the project planned output difference value is 0.5;

[0075] For the second category of electrical equipment, the predicted power consumption is the product of the reference value of each electrical equipment and the number of corresponding electrical equipment in the target project.

[0076] Specifically, if the electrical equipment is a Class I electrical equipment, it is detected whether the electrical equipment has associated project equipment, and a prediction strategy is determined based on whether the electrical equipment has associated project equipment. The prediction strategy includes:

[0077] If there is no associated project equipment for the power-consuming equipment, the predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment shall be determined based on the usage reference value of the power-consuming equipment and the average power consumption reference value;

[0078] If there are associated project equipments for the electric equipment, the associated adjustment method is determined according to the associated relationship between each associated project equipment and the electric equipment.

[0079] Among them, the usage reference value is the average of the number of times the electrical equipment is used in each reference historical project, the average power consumption reference value is the average of the power consumption of each time the electrical equipment is used in the reference historical project, and for electrical equipment that does not have any associated project equipment, the predicted power consumption is the product of the usage reference value of the electrical equipment and the average power consumption reference value.

[0080] Specifically, if there are associated project equipments in the power-consuming equipment, the associated adjustment method is determined according to the associated relationship between the power-consuming equipment and each associated project equipment, and the associated adjustment method includes determining the production impact coefficient according to the proportion of a type of power-consuming equipment of the associated project equipments with which the power-consuming equipments have a production associated relationship and the planned output of the target project, or determining the transportation impact coefficient of the corresponding associated project equipment according to the transportation difference coefficient of the working scenario of the target project and the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment;

[0081] The association relationship of the associated project equipment includes a production association relationship and a transportation association relationship.

[0082] Among them, the associated project equipment is other electrical equipment that is connected with the electrical equipment in the project execution process, and the association relationship is determined according to the task category undertaken by the associated project equipment. If the associated project equipment performs a transportation task, then the associated project equipment is a transportation association relationship; if the associated project equipment performs a production task, then the associated project equipment is a production association relationship.

[0083] Specifically, if the associated project equipment of the power-consuming equipment is in a production-associated relationship, the production impact coefficient is determined according to the proportion of a type of power-consuming equipment of the associated project equipment with which the power-consuming equipment has a production-associated relationship and the planned output of the target project, and the initial predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment is increased and adjusted according to the production impact coefficient;

[0084] The increase in the initial predicted electricity consumption is positively correlated with the production impact coefficient of the associated project equipment.

[0085] Among them, the production impact coefficient p m is the planned output of the target project, τ is the proportion of Class I power-consuming equipment, and the proportion of Class I power-consuming equipment = the number of Class I power-consuming equipment in the associated project equipment with which the power-consuming equipment has a production-related relationship / the number of associated project equipment with which the power-consuming equipment has a production-related relationship;

[0086] The initial predicted power consumption is the product of the usage reference value of the corresponding power-consuming equipment and the average power consumption reference value, and the initial predicted power consumption after the increase adjustment is recorded as the predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment.

[0087] Specifically, if the associated project equipment of the electric equipment is in a transportation association relationship, the transportation impact coefficient of the corresponding associated project equipment is determined according to the transportation difference coefficient of the working scenario of the target project and the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment;

[0088] If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is not 0, the transportation impact coefficient is determined according to formula (1):

[0089]

[0090] In formula (1), Y C is the transportation difference coefficient of the working scenario of the target project, |ΔV| is the absolute value of the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment, β1 and β2 are the influence coefficients corresponding to the transportation difference coefficient and the quantity change value respectively;

[0091] According to the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment, the predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment is increased and adjusted. If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is greater than 0, the increase value of the predicted power consumption is positively correlated with the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment. If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is less than 0, the increase value of the predicted power consumption is negatively correlated with the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment.

[0092] If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is 0, the transportation impact coefficient is positively correlated with the transportation difference coefficient of the work scenario of the target project;

[0093] An increase adjustment is performed on the initial predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment according to the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment, and the increase value of the initial predicted power consumption is positively correlated with the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment.

[0094] Among them, the initial predicted power consumption after the increase adjustment is recorded as the predicted power consumption of the power-using equipment, the quantity change value of the associated project equipment = the quantity of the corresponding associated project equipment in the target project - the average value of the quantity of the corresponding associated project equipment in each historical project, β1 and β2 are the influence coefficients corresponding to the transportation difference coefficient and the quantity change value, respectively. The values ​​of the influence coefficients corresponding to the transportation difference coefficient and the quantity change value can be set by the user according to actual needs. The greater the influence of the transportation difference coefficient on the transportation process of the power-using equipment, the greater the influence coefficient corresponding to the transportation difference coefficient, the greater the influence of the quantity change value on the transportation process of the power-using equipment, the greater the influence coefficient corresponding to the quantity change value, and a value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the transportation difference coefficient is provided, and the value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the transportation difference coefficient is 0.5. A value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the quantity change value is provided, and the value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the quantity change value is 0.5;

[0095] The transport variance coefficient Y y =e m·ε1 +e n·ε2, m is the site scale difference value of the working scenario of the target project, ε1 is the influence coefficient corresponding to the site scale difference value, n is the transportation difficulty difference value of the working scenario of the target project, ε2 is the influence coefficient corresponding to the transportation difficulty difference value, site scale difference value = total project site area of ​​the target project - average total project site area of ​​each historical project, transportation difficulty difference value = transportation difficulty reference value of the target project - average transportation difficulty reference value of each historical project, transportation difficulty reference value is the transportation distance of the transportation equipment per unit time, the site scale difference value and the influence coefficient corresponding to the transportation difficulty difference value can be set by the user according to actual needs, the greater the impact of the site scale difference value on the transportation process of the electrical equipment, the greater the impact coefficient corresponding to the site scale difference value, the greater the impact of the transportation difficulty difference value on the transportation process of the electrical equipment, the greater the impact coefficient corresponding to the transportation difficulty difference value, a value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the site scale difference value is provided, and the value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the site scale difference value is 0.45, a value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the transportation difficulty difference value is provided, and the value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the transportation difficulty difference value is 0.55.

[0096] Specifically, the secondary predicted power is determined according to the predicted power consumption of each power-consuming device, and the secondary predicted power is increased and adjusted according to the power consumption influencing parameters of the target project;

[0097] The increase value of the secondary predicted electricity quantity is positively correlated with the power consumption influencing parameter of the target project.

[0098] The secondary predicted power consumption is the sum of the predicted power consumption of each power-consuming device, and the power consumption influencing parameter O is the equipment aging difference value of the target project, α O is the influence coefficient corresponding to the equipment aging reference value, T is the average temperature change value of the target project, α Tis the influence coefficient corresponding to the average temperature change value, equipment aging difference value = equipment aging reference value of the target project - average value of equipment aging reference values ​​of each historical project, equipment aging reference value is the sum of the difference between the service life of each aged equipment in the target project or historical project and its optimal service life, aged equipment is an electrical equipment whose service life is greater than the optimal service life of the electrical equipment of this category, average temperature change value = average value of average temperatures of each historical project - estimated average temperature of the target project, average temperature = sum of average temperatures of each day in the project execution cycle of the historical project / number of days in the project execution cycle of the historical project, estimated average temperature = sum of estimated average temperatures of each day in the project execution cycle of the target project / number of days in the project execution cycle of the target project, how to set the optimal service life of each category of electrical equipment and how to obtain the estimated daily average temperature of each day in the project execution cycle of the target project are easy to understand for those skilled in the art and will not be elaborated here;

[0099] The values ​​of the influence coefficient corresponding to the equipment aging reference value and the average temperature change value can be set by the user according to actual needs. The greater the impact of the equipment aging reference value on the power consumption of the electrical equipment, the greater the influence coefficient corresponding to the equipment aging reference value. The greater the impact of the average temperature change value on the power consumption of the electrical equipment, the greater the influence coefficient corresponding to the average temperature change value. A value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the equipment aging reference value is provided, and the value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the equipment aging reference value is 0.3. A value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the average temperature change value is provided, and the value of the influence coefficient corresponding to the average temperature change value is 0.7.

[0100] Specifically, whether to issue a forecast risk warning is determined based on the project forecast power difference value;

[0101] If the project's predicted electricity difference value is greater than the preset electricity difference value, the project user will be given a prediction risk warning and the predicted electricity will be corrected;

[0102] The project predicted electricity quantity difference value is the absolute value of the difference between the project predicted electricity quantity and the secondary predicted electricity quantity.

[0103] Among them, during the electricity purchase transaction, the power supplier predicts the electricity consumption of the target project based on historical records, and the result obtained is the project predicted electricity. The user can set the value of the preset electricity difference value according to actual needs and historical records. The higher the risk requirement of the user for the decision result, the smaller the preset electricity difference value is. A preset electricity difference value is provided, and the preset electricity difference value is 2% of the project predicted electricity of the target project.

[0104] See also Figure 4As shown, it is a module connection diagram of the power grid electricity purchase transaction system based on risk decision-making of the present invention. The present invention also provides a power grid electricity purchase transaction system based on risk decision-making, including:

[0105] A project storage module, which is used to store the project information of the target project and each historical project;

[0106] A data analysis module, which is connected to the history storage module, and is used to obtain the frequency difference reference value and the estimated duration reference value of each electrical equipment, determine the project equipment category of the electrical equipment according to the frequency difference reference value and the estimated duration reference value of each electrical equipment, and determine the prediction processing method according to the project equipment category of the electrical equipment;

[0107] A first processing module, which is connected to the data analysis module, and is used to determine the predicted power consumption according to the reference value of the power consumption of the power-applying equipment and the number of the power-applying equipment in the target project;

[0108] A second processing module is connected to the data analysis module and is used to detect whether the power-consuming device has associated project equipment, determine a prediction strategy based on whether the power-consuming device has associated project equipment, and determine predicted power consumption of the power-consuming device based on the prediction strategy;

[0109] an association analysis module, which is connected to the second processing module, and is used to detect the association relationship between each associated project device and the electric device, determine the association adjustment method of the electric device according to the association relationship between each associated project device and the electric device, and adjust the initial predicted power consumption of the electric device according to the association adjustment method to obtain the predicted power consumption of the electric device;

[0110] The risk warning module is connected to the first processing module and the second processing module respectively, and is used to determine whether to issue a forecast risk warning according to the difference value of the project forecast electricity quantity.

[0111] Among them, the project information stored in the present invention includes the power consumption information of each power-consuming equipment in the target project and the historical project, the planned output of the project and the execution cycle of the project. The power consumption information includes the service life of each power-consuming equipment, the time of each power consumption and the power consumption of each power consumption.

[0112] So far, the technical solutions of the present invention have been described in conjunction with the preferred embodiments shown in the accompanying drawings. However, it is easy for those skilled in the art to understand that the protection scope of the present invention is obviously not limited to these specific embodiments. Without departing from the principle of the present invention, those skilled in the art can make equivalent changes or substitutions to the relevant technical features, and the technical solutions after these changes or substitutions will fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0113] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. For those skilled in the art, the present invention may have various modifications and variations. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A power grid electricity purchasing transaction method based on risk decision-making, characterized in that: include: Obtain frequency difference reference values ​​and estimated duration reference values ​​of each electrical equipment in the target project, and determine the project equipment category of each electrical equipment according to the frequency difference reference values ​​and estimated duration reference values ​​of each electrical equipment; For power-consuming equipment of a single project equipment category, the forecasting processing method is determined according to the project equipment category of the power-consuming equipment; If the electric equipment is a type of electric equipment, a prediction strategy is determined based on whether the electric equipment has associated project equipment. The prediction strategy includes determining the predicted power consumption based on the reference value of the power consumption of the electric equipment and the number of the electric equipment in the target project, or determining the associated adjustment method based on the associated relationship between each associated project equipment and the electric equipment. If the power-consuming equipment is a Class II power-consuming equipment, its predicted power consumption shall be determined based on the reference value of the power consumption of the power-consuming equipment and the number of power-consuming equipment in the target project; The associated adjustment method includes determining the production impact coefficient according to the proportion of a type of associated project equipment with which the electric equipment has a production association relationship and the planned output of the target project, or determining the transportation impact coefficient of the corresponding associated project equipment according to the transportation difference coefficient of the working scene of the target project and the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment; Determine the secondary predicted power according to the predicted power consumption of each power-consuming device, and adjust the secondary predicted power according to the power consumption influencing parameters of the target project; Determine whether to issue a forecast risk warning based on the project's forecast electricity quantity difference value.

2. The risk-based decision-making method for power grid electricity purchase transactions according to claim 1, characterized in that: Collect the frequency difference reference value and estimated duration reference value of each power-consuming equipment in the target project, and determine the project equipment category based on the frequency difference reference value and estimated duration reference value of each power-consuming equipment. The project equipment categories include: A type of electrical equipment whose frequency difference reference value is greater than a preset frequency difference reference value or whose estimated duration reference value is less than or equal to a preset estimated duration reference value; Class II electrical equipment whose frequency difference reference value is less than or equal to the preset frequency difference reference value and whose estimated duration reference value is greater than the preset estimated duration reference value.

3. The risk-based decision-making method for power grid electricity purchase transactions according to claim 2 is characterized in that: For power-consuming equipment of a single project equipment category, the forecast processing method is determined according to the project equipment category of the power-consuming equipment. The forecast processing methods include: If the project equipment category of the electric equipment is a type of electric equipment, the prediction strategy is determined based on whether the electric equipment has associated project equipment; If the project equipment category of the power-consuming equipment is Class II power-consuming equipment, its predicted power consumption shall be determined based on the power consumption reference value of the power-consuming equipment and the number of power-consuming equipment in the target project; The power consumption reference value is an average value of the total power consumption of the same type of power-consuming equipment in each reference historical project, and the reference historical project is determined according to the similarity of project features between each historical project and the target project.

4. The risk-based decision-making method for power grid electricity purchase transactions according to claim 3 is characterized in that: If the electrical equipment is a Class I electrical equipment, detect whether the electrical equipment has associated project equipment, and determine the prediction strategy based on whether the electrical equipment has associated project equipment. The prediction strategy includes: If there is no associated project equipment for the power-consuming equipment, the predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment shall be determined based on the usage reference value of the power-consuming equipment and the average power consumption reference value; If there are associated project equipments for the electric equipment, the associated adjustment method is determined according to the associated relationship between each associated project equipment and the electric equipment.

5. The risk-based decision-making method for power grid electricity purchase transactions according to claim 4 is characterized in that: If there are associated project equipments in the power-consuming equipment, the associated adjustment method is determined according to the associated relationship between the power-consuming equipment and each associated project equipment. The associated adjustment method includes determining the production impact coefficient according to the proportion of a type of power-consuming equipment of the associated project equipments with which the power-consuming equipments have a production associated relationship and the planned output of the target project, or determining the transportation impact coefficient of the corresponding associated project equipment according to the transportation difference coefficient of the working scene of the target project and the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment; The association relationship of the associated project equipment includes a production association relationship and a transportation association relationship.

6. The risk-based decision-making method for power grid electricity purchase transactions according to claim 5 is characterized in that: If the associated project equipment of the power-consuming equipment is in a production-associated relationship, the production impact coefficient is determined according to the proportion of a type of power-consuming equipment of the associated project equipment with which the power-consuming equipment has a production-associated relationship and the planned output of the target project, and the initial predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment is increased and adjusted according to the production impact coefficient; The increase in the initial predicted electricity consumption is positively correlated with the production impact coefficient of the associated project equipment.

7. The risk-based decision-making method for power grid electricity purchase transactions according to claim 6 is characterized in that: If the associated project equipment of the electric equipment is in a transportation association relationship, the transportation impact coefficient of the corresponding associated project equipment is determined according to the transportation difference coefficient of the working scenario of the target project and the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment; If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is not 0, the transportation impact coefficient is determined according to formula (1): In formula (1), Y C is the transportation difference coefficient of the working scenario of the target project, |ΔV| is the absolute value of the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment, β1 and β2 are the influence coefficients corresponding to the transportation difference coefficient and the quantity change value respectively; According to the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment, the predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment is increased and adjusted. If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is greater than 0, the increase value of the predicted power consumption is positively correlated with the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment. If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is less than 0, the increase value of the predicted power consumption is negatively correlated with the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment. If the quantity change value of the corresponding associated project equipment is 0, the transportation impact coefficient is positively correlated with the transportation difference coefficient of the work scenario of the target project; An increase adjustment is performed on the initial predicted power consumption of the power-consuming equipment according to the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment, and the increase value of the initial predicted power consumption is positively correlated with the transportation impact coefficient of the associated project equipment.

8. The risk-based decision-making method for power grid electricity purchase transactions according to claim 7 is characterized in that: Determine the secondary predicted power consumption according to the predicted power consumption of each power-consuming device, and increase and adjust the secondary predicted power consumption according to the power consumption influencing parameters of the target project; The increase value of the secondary predicted electricity quantity is positively correlated with the power consumption influencing parameter of the target project.

9. The risk-based decision-making method for power grid electricity purchase transactions according to claim 8, characterized in that: Determine whether to issue a forecast risk warning based on the project's forecast power difference value; If the project's predicted electricity difference value is greater than the preset electricity difference value, the project user will be given a prediction risk warning and the predicted electricity will be corrected; The project predicted electricity quantity difference value is the absolute value of the difference between the project predicted electricity quantity and the secondary predicted electricity quantity.

10. A risk-based decision-making power grid purchasing transaction system using the method described in any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized in that: include: A project storage module, which is used to store the project information of the target project and each historical project; A data analysis module, which is connected to the history storage module, and is used to obtain the frequency difference reference value and the estimated duration reference value of each electrical equipment, determine the project equipment category of the electrical equipment according to the frequency difference reference value and the estimated duration reference value of each electrical equipment, and determine the prediction processing method according to the project equipment category of the electrical equipment; A first processing module, which is connected to the data analysis module, and is used to determine the predicted power consumption according to the reference value of the power consumption of the power-applying equipment and the number of the power-applying equipment in the target project; A second processing module is connected to the data analysis module and is used to detect whether the power-consuming device has associated project equipment, determine a prediction strategy based on whether the power-consuming device has associated project equipment, and determine predicted power consumption of the power-consuming device based on the prediction strategy; an association analysis module, which is connected to the second processing module, and is used to detect the association relationship between each associated project device and the electric device, determine the association adjustment method of the electric device according to the association relationship between each associated project device and the electric device, and adjust the initial predicted power consumption of the electric device according to the association adjustment method to obtain the predicted power consumption of the electric device; The risk warning module is connected to the first processing module and the second processing module respectively, and is used to determine whether to issue a forecast risk warning according to the difference value of the project forecast electricity quantity.

Images