Method and system for determining exploration success rate of trap to be drilled

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of geological research, and discloses a to-be-drilled trap exploration success rate determination method and system, and the method comprises the steps: determining an oil source coefficient, a reservoir coefficient, a cover layer coefficient and a trap coefficient; and calculating the exploration success rate of the to-be-drilled trap based on the oil source coefficient, the reservoir coefficient, the cover layer coefficient and the trap coefficient. According to the method, the exploration success rate of the to-be-drilled trap close to the real underground condition is comprehensively evaluated and quickly solved based on reservoir forming elements such as the hydrocarbon source rock, the reservoir stratum, the cover stratum and the trap, the risk assessment precision of the to-be-drilled trap is improved, and the effectiveness of an exploration deployment scheme is improved; and a scientific and effective method and system framework are provided for the calculation process of the exploration success rate of the to-be-drilled trap.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of geological research, and in particular relates to a method and a system for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled. Background Art

[0002] The exploration success rate of un-drilled traps is a direct parameter for predicting the exploration risk of traps and clarifying whether the un-drilled traps are worth drilling. The exploration success rate of un-drilled traps refers to the probability of oil and gas discovery in the traps predicted by comprehensive evaluation methods or expert scoring methods before actual drilling. How to calculate the exploration success rate of un-drilled traps has become the biggest bottleneck restricting the accuracy of trap queuing and exploration risk assessment.

[0003] At present, most researchers usually directly assign exploration success rates to traps to be drilled when predicting trap queuing and exploration risks based on personal experience or expert scoring methods, or ignore the impact of this parameter on trap queuing or risk assessment. The predicted exploration success rates of traps to be drilled cannot truly reflect the actual drilling risks of the traps to be drilled. There is an obvious error between the pre-drilling prediction results and the actual results after drilling, which directly affects the exploration potential evaluation and exploration deployment plan of the traps to be drilled. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to solve at least one problem in the background technology, the present invention provides a method and system for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled.

[0005] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0006] A method for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled, characterized in that it comprises the following steps:

[0007] Determine the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and trap coefficient;

[0008] The exploration success rate of the traps to be drilled is calculated based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and trap coefficient.

[0009] Preferably, determining the oil source coefficient includes:

[0010] O=O ex *O ef ;

[0011] Where, O is the oil source coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable oil source conditions; ex O is the existence of oil source, which indicates the probability of the existence of source rock in the basin or zone where the trap to be drilled is located; ef The oil source effectiveness indicates the probability that the location of the trap to be drilled has the ability to effectively supply hydrocarbons.

[0012] Preferably:

[0013] O ex =H o / H omax ;

[0014] In the formula, H o is the mudstone thickness of the potential source rock layer, H omax is the stratigraphic thickness of the potential source rock interval;

[0015]

[0016] Where, L oc Indicates the distance between the hydrocarbon supply center and the trap to be drilled; L ot It indicates the distance between the hydrocarbon supply center and the trap to be drilled and the hydrocarbon supply edge on the line connecting the hydrocarbon supply center and the trap to be drilled.

[0017] Preferably, determining the reservoir coefficient comprises:

[0018] R=R ex *R ef ;

[0019] Where R is the reservoir coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable reservoir conditions; R ex is the reservoir existence, indicating the probability that a reservoir facies belt exists at the location of the trap to be drilled; R ef Reservoir effectiveness, which indicates the probability that the reservoir where the trap to be drilled is located has effective storage capacity.

[0020] Preferably:

[0021]

[0022] Where, L r is the maximum reservoir facies length within the known reservoir facies range; Lrt is the minimum distance between the location of the trap to be drilled and the edge of the reservoir facies; when L rt ≥L r When R ex =0;

[0023] R ef =min{H r / H rmax ,P r / P rmax ,K r / K rmax};

[0024] In the formula, H r H is the reservoir thickness at the location of the trap to be drilled; rmax The maximum thickness of the reservoir in the reservoir facies where the trap to be drilled is located; P r is the reservoir porosity at the location of the trap to be drilled, P rmaxK is the maximum porosity of the reservoir in the reservoir facies where the trap to be drilled is located, r is the reservoir permeability at the trap to be drilled, K rmax It is the maximum permeability of the reservoir in the reservoir facies where the trap to be drilled is located.

[0025] Preferably, determining the cap layer coefficient includes:

[0026] C=C ex *C ef ;

[0027] Where C is the cap rock coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable cap rock conditions; C ex is the existence of caprock, indicating the probability of the existence of caprock at the location of the trap to be drilled; C ef The cap rock effectiveness indicates the probability that the cap rock at the location of the trap to be drilled has effective sealing capacity.

[0028] Preferably:

[0029]

[0030] Where, L c is the maximum length of the cap phase belt within the known cap phase belt; L cc It is the minimum distance between the location of the trap to be drilled and the edge of the caprock facies zone;

[0031] C ef =min{H c / H cmax ,P cmin / P c ,K cmin / K c};

[0032] In the formula, H c H is the cap rock thickness at the location of the trap to be drilled; cmax P is the maximum thickness of the cap rock in the cap rock phase where the trap to be drilled is located; c is the cap rock porosity at the location of the trap to be drilled; P cmin K is the minimum porosity of the cap rock in the cap rock phase where the trap to be drilled is located; c K is the cap rock permeability at the location of the trap to be drilled; cmin It is the minimum permeability of the cap rock in the cap rock phase zone where the trap to be drilled is located.

[0033] Preferably, determining the trap coefficient includes:

[0034] T=T ex *T ef ;

[0035] Where T is the trap coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable trap conditions; Tex is the existence of the trap, indicating the probability that a trap exists at the location of the trap to be drilled; T ef The effectiveness of the trap indicates the probability that the trap at the location of the trap to be drilled has effective trapping capacity.

[0036] Preferably:

[0037]

[0038] Where X1 is the minimum spacing of 2D seismic lines in the direction of the main survey line, and X2 is the minimum spacing of 2D seismic lines in the direction of the tie survey line;

[0039] T ef =min{H t / H tmax ,1 / (N t +1)};

[0040] In the formula, H t is the thickness of the lateral butt plugging layer at the location of the trap to be drilled, H tmax Closing height of the trap to be drilled, N t is the number of faults controlling the trap to be drilled, N t ≥0, N of anticline trap t =0.

[0041] Preferably, the exploration success rate of the trap to be drilled is calculated based on the oil source coefficient, the reservoir coefficient, the cap rock coefficient and the trap coefficient, including:

[0042] S = 25*(O+R+C+T);

[0043] Where S is the exploration success rate of the trap to be drilled; O is the oil source coefficient; R is the reservoir coefficient; C is the cap rock coefficient; and T is the trap coefficient.

[0044] A system for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled, comprising:

[0045] The first calculation unit is used to determine the oil source coefficient, the reservoir coefficient, the cap rock coefficient and the trap coefficient;

[0046] The second calculation unit is used to calculate the success rate of exploration of the trap to be drilled based on the oil source coefficient, the reservoir coefficient, the cap rock coefficient and the trap coefficient.

[0047] Beneficial effects of the present invention:

[0048] The present invention is based on hydrocarbon source rocks, reservoirs, cap rocks, traps and other reservoir-forming elements, comprehensively evaluates and quickly obtains the exploration success rate of traps to be drilled that is close to the actual underground situation, improves the accuracy of risk assessment of traps to be drilled, and enhances the effectiveness of exploration deployment plans, providing a scientific and effective method and system framework for the calculation process of the exploration success rate of traps to be drilled.

[0049] Other features and advantages of the present invention will be described in the following description, and partly become obvious from the description, or be understood by implementing the present invention. The purpose and other advantages of the present invention can be realized and obtained by the structures pointed out in the description and the drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0050] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0051] Figure 1 It is an implementation flow chart of the method for determining the success rate (S) of exploration of the trap to be drilled of the present invention;

[0052] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the method for determining the oil source coefficient (O) of the present invention;

[0053] Figure 3 Schematic diagram of the method for determining the reservoir coefficient (R) of the present invention;

[0054] Figure 4 Schematic diagram of a method for determining a cap layer coefficient (C) of the present invention;

[0055] Figure 5 It is a schematic diagram of the method for determining the closure coefficient (T) of the present invention.

[0056] Figure 6 It is a schematic diagram of the exploration success rate quantification chart of the trap to be drilled (abbreviated as ORCT chart) of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 7 1 is a system structure diagram for determining the exploration success rate (S) of a trap to be drilled provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0058] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0059] A method for determining the success rate of exploration of traps to be drilled, such as Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0060] S1: Determine the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and trap coefficient;

[0061] S2: Calculate the exploration success rate of the trap to be drilled based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and trap coefficient.

[0062] It should be noted that the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and trap coefficient of the present invention all need to be calculated, and there is no order in the calculation process. The specific calculation process is described below:

[0063] In S1, the oil source coefficient depends on the existence of oil source (O ex ) and oil source effectiveness (O ef ) two parameters, so when determining the oil source coefficient, the relationship between the oil source existence and the oil source effectiveness is shown in formula (1):

[0064] O=O ex *O ef ; (1)

[0065] Where, O is the oil source coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable oil source conditions; ex O is the existence of oil source, which indicates the probability of the existence of source rock in the basin or zone where the trap to be drilled is located; ef The oil source effectiveness indicates the probability that the location of the trap to be drilled has the ability to effectively supply hydrocarbons.

[0066] Further:

[0067] O ex =H o / H omax ; (2)

[0068] In the formula, H o is the mudstone thickness of the potential source rock layer, H omax is the stratigraphic thickness of the potential source rock interval;

[0069]

[0070] Where, L oc Indicates the distance between the hydrocarbon supply center and the trap to be drilled; L ot It indicates the distance between the hydrocarbon supply center and the trap to be drilled and the hydrocarbon supply edge on the line connecting the hydrocarbon supply center and the trap to be drilled.

[0071] like Figure 2 As shown, in this embodiment, the ellipse in the figure represents the hydrocarbon supply range of the known source rock, the hydrocarbon supply center is at the center of the ellipse, and A represents the trap to be drilled. Figure 2 It can be seen that H omax Including the entire thickness of mudstone and sandstone, H ois the thickness of mudstone. After consulting the well logging and mud logging data of the zone where the trap A to be drilled is located, the mudstone thickness H of the potential source rock layer is o The thickness of the potential source rock layer is 65m. omax , then O ex =H o / H omax =65m / 85m=0.76. After consulting the known source rock hydrocarbon supply range map, the trap A to be drilled in this example is located outside the known source rock hydrocarbon supply range, where the distance L between the hydrocarbon supply center and the trap A to be drilled is oc The minimum distance L between the location of the trap A to be drilled and the hydrocarbon supply edge is 10 km. ot is 5 km, so O ef =(L oc -L ot ) / L oc =1-L ot / L oc =0.5. Oil source coefficient O = O ex *O ef =0.76*0.5=0.38.

[0072] Furthermore, the size of the reservoir coefficient depends on two parameters: reservoir existence (Rex) and reservoir effectiveness (Ref). The formula (4) for calculating the reservoir coefficient is as follows:

[0073] R=R ex *R ef ; (4)

[0074] Where R is the reservoir coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable reservoir conditions; R ex is the reservoir existence, indicating the probability that a reservoir facies belt exists at the location of the trap to be drilled; R ef Reservoir effectiveness, which indicates the probability that the reservoir where the trap to be drilled is located has effective storage capacity.

[0075] Further:

[0076]

[0077] Where, L r is the maximum reservoir facies length within the known reservoir facies range; Lrt is the minimum distance between the location of the trap to be drilled and the edge of the reservoir facies;

[0078] R ef =min{H r / H rmax ,P r / P rmax ,K r / K rmax}; (6)

[0079] In the formula, H r H is the reservoir thickness at the location of the trap to be drilled; rmax The maximum thickness of the reservoir in the reservoir facies where the trap to be drilled is located; P r is the reservoir porosity at the location of the trap to be drilled, P rmax K is the maximum porosity of the reservoir in the reservoir facies where the trap to be drilled is located, r is the reservoir permeability at the trap to be drilled, K rmax It is the maximum permeability of the reservoir in the reservoir facies where the trap to be drilled is located.

[0080] like Figure 3 As shown in the figure, in this example, after consulting the reservoir facies map of the area where the study example is located, the trap A to be drilled is outside the known reservoir facies range, and the maximum reservoir facies length L within the known reservoir facies range is r is 10 km, and the minimum distance L between the location of the trap A to be drilled and the edge of the reservoir facies belt is rt 2km, the trap to be drilled is located outside the known reservoir facies and L rt <L r , so R ex =(L r -L rt ) / L r =1-L rt / L r =1-2 / 10=0.8. By consulting the reservoir thickness distribution curve, porosity distribution curve, and permeability distribution curve in the area where the research example is located, it can be known that the reservoir thickness H at the position of the trap A to be drilled is r is 22 m, and the maximum reservoir thickness H of the reservoir facies belt where the trap to be drilled is located rmax is 45m, and the reservoir porosity P at the position of the trap A to be drilled is r is 0.29, and the maximum reservoir porosity P of the reservoir facies where the trap to be drilled is located rmax is 0.44, and the reservoir permeability K at the position of the trap A to be drilled r is 0.31md, and the maximum permeability K of the reservoir facies where the trap to be drilled is located rmax is 0.41md, so R ef =min{22 / 45,0.29 / 0.44,0.31 / 0.44}=min{0.49,0.66,0.76}, so R ef =0.49. Reservoir coefficient R = R ex *R ef =0.8*0.49=0.4.

[0081] Furthermore, the size of the cap layer coefficient depends on the existence of the cap layer (C ex ) and cover effectiveness (Cef ) two parameters to determine the capping coefficient, including:

[0082] C=C ex *C ef ;

[0083] Where C is the cap rock coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable cap rock conditions; C ex is the existence of caprock, indicating the probability of the existence of caprock at the location of the trap to be drilled; C ef The cap rock effectiveness indicates the probability that the cap rock at the location of the trap to be drilled has effective sealing capacity.

[0084] Further:

[0085]

[0086] Where, L c is the maximum length of the cap phase belt within the known cap phase belt; L cc It is the minimum distance between the location of the trap to be drilled and the edge of the caprock facies zone;

[0087] C ef =min{H c / H cmax ,P cmin / P c ,K cmin / K c};

[0088] In the formula, H c H is the cap rock thickness at the location of the trap to be drilled; cmax P is the maximum thickness of the cap rock in the cap rock phase where the trap to be drilled is located; c is the cap rock porosity at the location of the trap to be drilled; P cmin K is the minimum porosity of the cap rock in the cap rock phase where the trap to be drilled is located; c K is the cap rock permeability at the location of the trap to be drilled; cmin It is the minimum permeability of the cap rock in the cap rock phase zone where the trap to be drilled is located.

[0089] like Figure 4 As shown in the figure, in this example, after consulting the cap rock phase belt map of the area where the study example is located, the trap A to be drilled is located outside the known cap rock phase belt range, and the maximum cap rock phase belt length L within the known cap rock phase belt range is c The minimum distance L between the location of the trap A to be drilled and the edge of the caprock facies is 11 km. cc The trap to be drilled is located outside the known reservoir facies belt and L cc <L c , so C ex =(L c -Lcc ) / L c =1-L cc / L c =1-2.5 / 11=0.77. After consulting the cap rock thickness curve, porosity curve, and permeability curve of the research example, the cap rock thickness H at the position of the trap A to be drilled is c The maximum thickness of the cap rock in the cap rock phase zone where the trap to be drilled is located is H cmax The cap rock porosity at the position of the trap A to be drilled is P c is 0.09, and the minimum porosity P of the caprock phase belt where the trap to be drilled is located cmin is 0.05, and the cap rock permeability K at the position of the trap A to be drilled c is 0.1md, and the minimum permeability K of the caprock phase belt where the trap to be drilled is located cmin is 0.07md. Therefore, C ef =min{H c / H cmax ,P cmin / P c ,K cmin / K c}=min{45 / 45,0.05 / 0.09,0.07 / 0.1}=min{1,0.56,0.7}, so C ef =0.56. Cover coefficient C = C ex *C ef =0.77*0.56=0.43.

[0090] Further, determining the trap coefficient includes:

[0091] T=T ex *T ef ;

[0092] Where T is the trap coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable trap conditions; T ex is the existence of the trap, indicating the probability that a trap exists at the location of the trap to be drilled; T ef The effectiveness of the trap indicates the probability that the trap at the location of the trap to be drilled has effective trapping capacity.

[0093] Further:

[0094]

[0095] Where X1 is the minimum spacing of 2D seismic lines in the direction of the main survey line, and X2 is the minimum spacing of 2D seismic lines in the direction of the tie survey line;

[0096] T ef =min{H t / H tmax,1 / (N t +1)};

[0097] In the formula, H t is the thickness of the lateral butt plugging layer at the location of the trap to be drilled, H tmax Closing height of the trap to be drilled, N t is the number of faults controlling the trap to be drilled, Nt≥0, and Nt=0 for anticline trap.

[0098] like Figure 5 As shown in the figure, in this example, after consulting the seismic data of the area where the study example is located, the trap A to be drilled is located in the coverage area of ​​2D seismic survey, the minimum spacing X1 of the 2D seismic survey lines in the main survey line direction is 1 km, and the minimum spacing X2 of the 2D seismic survey lines in the connecting survey line direction is 1.2 km, then T ex =min{1 / X1,1 / X2}=min{1 / 1,1 / 1.2}=min{1,0.83}, so T ex =0.83. After checking the lateral docking conditions on the trap map and the reservoir inversion section, the thickness of the lateral docking plugging layer H at the position of the trap A to be drilled is t is 23m, and the closing height H of the trap A to be drilled tmax is 49m, the number of faults controlling the trap to be drilled is N t is 1, then T ef =min{H t / H tmax ,1 / (N t +1)}=min{23 / 49,1 / (1+1)}=min{0.47,0.5}, so T ef =0.47. Enclosure coefficient T = T ex *T ef =0.24.

[0099] Furthermore, the exploration success rate of the trap to be drilled is calculated based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and trap coefficient, including:

[0100] S = 25*(O+R+C+T);

[0101] Where S is the exploration success rate of the trap to be drilled; O is the oil source coefficient; R is the reservoir coefficient; C is the cap rock coefficient; and T is the trap coefficient.

[0102] like Figure 6As shown, in this embodiment, a quantitative chart of the exploration success rate of the trap to be drilled (abbreviated as ORCT chart) is established. The X-axis of the quantitative chart is the existence axis, the Y-axis is the effectiveness axis, the X-axis and the Y-axis are divided into 10 equal parts, and the 5-point intersection of the X-axis and the Y-axis is 0. The values ​​of the left and right directions of the X-axis are 0-5, respectively, and the values ​​of the upward and downward directions of the Y-axis are 0-5, respectively, which is equivalent to dividing the quantitative chart of the exploration success rate of the trap to be drilled into 4 areas, each with an area of ​​25 and a total area of ​​100. The upper right corner area is the oil source coefficient (O) area, where the X-axis value is 0. ex *5, Y-axis value is 0 ef *5, then the area of ​​zone O is O ex *O ef *25. The upper left corner is the reservoir coefficient (R) area, where the X-axis value is R ex *5, Y-axis value is R ef *5, then the area of ​​zone O is R ex *R ef *25. The lower left corner is the cap coefficient (C) area, where the X-axis value is C ex *5, Y-axis value is C ef *5, then the area of ​​zone O is C ex *C ef *25. The lower right corner is the trap coefficient (T) area, where the X-axis value is T ex *5, Y-axis value is T ef *5, then the area of ​​zone O is T ex *T ef *25. The success rate of exploration of traps to be drilled, S, is expressed as the sum of the areas of the oil source coefficient area, the reservoir coefficient area, the cap rock coefficient area, and the trap coefficient area, that is, S = (O ex *O ef *25+R ex *R ef *25+C ex *C ef *25+T ex *T ef *25) / 100=25*(O ex *O ef +R ex *R ef +C ex *C ef +T ex *T ef )=25*(O+R+C+T). In this embodiment, the exploration success rate S of the trap A to be drilled is expressed as the sum of the areas of the oil source coefficient area, the reservoir coefficient area, the cap rock coefficient area, and the trap coefficient area, that is, S=(O ex *O ef *25+R ex *R ef *25+Cex *C ef *25+T ex *T ef *25) / 100=25*(O ex *O ef +R ex *R ef +C ex *C ef +T ex *T ef )=25*(O+R+C+T)=25*(0.38+0.4+0.43+0.24)=36.25( Figure 6 Therefore, the exploration success rate S of the un-drilled trap A is 36.25%.

[0103] A system for determining the success rate of exploration of traps to be drilled, such as Figure 7 As shown, it includes a first calculation unit and a second calculation unit, wherein the first calculation unit is used to determine the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and closure coefficient; the second calculation unit is used to calculate the success rate of exploration of the closure to be drilled based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and closure coefficient.

[0104] It should be noted that, for the system embodiment, since it basically corresponds to the method embodiment, the relevant parts can refer to the partial description of the method embodiment. The various units and modules of the system for determining the success rate of exploration of closures to be drilled are only divided according to functional logic, but are not limited to the above divisions, as long as the corresponding functions can be achieved; in addition, the specific names of the units are only for the convenience of distinguishing each other, and are not used to limit the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0105] Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent substitutions for some of the technical features therein; and these modifications or substitutions do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Determine the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and trap coefficient; The exploration success rate of the traps to be drilled is calculated based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and trap coefficient.

2. The method for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled according to claim 1, characterized in that: Determining the oil source coefficient includes: O=O ex *O ef ; Where, O is the oil source coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable oil source conditions; ex O is the existence of oil source, which indicates the probability of the existence of source rock in the basin or zone where the trap to be drilled is located; ef The oil source effectiveness indicates the probability that the location of the trap to be drilled has the ability to effectively supply hydrocarbons.

3. A method for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled according to claim 2, characterized in that: O ex =H o / H omax ; In the formula, H o is the mudstone thickness of the potential source rock layer, H omax is the stratigraphic thickness of the potential source rock interval; Where, L oc Indicates the distance between the hydrocarbon supply center and the trap to be drilled; L ot It indicates the distance between the hydrocarbon supply center and the trap to be drilled and the hydrocarbon supply edge on the line connecting the hydrocarbon supply center and the trap to be drilled.

4. The method for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled according to claim 1, characterized in that: Determining the reservoir coefficient includes: R=R ex *R ef ; Where R is the reservoir coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable reservoir conditions; R ex is the reservoir existence, indicating the probability that a reservoir facies belt exists at the location of the trap to be drilled; R ef Reservoir effectiveness, which indicates the probability that the reservoir where the trap to be drilled is located has effective storage capacity.

5. A method for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled according to claim 4, characterized in that: Where, L r is the maximum reservoir facies length within the known reservoir facies range; Lrt is the minimum distance between the location of the trap to be drilled and the edge of the reservoir facies; when L rt ≥L r When R ex =0; R ef =min{H r / H rmax ,P r / P rmax ,K r / K rmax }; In the formula, H r H is the reservoir thickness at the location of the trap to be drilled; rmax The maximum thickness of the reservoir in the reservoir facies where the trap to be drilled is located; P r is the reservoir porosity at the location of the trap to be drilled, P rmax K is the maximum porosity of the reservoir in the reservoir facies where the trap to be drilled is located, r is the reservoir permeability at the trap to be drilled, K rmax It is the maximum permeability of the reservoir in the reservoir facies where the trap to be drilled is located.

6. The method for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled according to claim 1, characterized in that: Determining the cap layer coefficient includes: C=C ex *C ef ; Where C is the cap rock coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable cap rock conditions; C ex is the existence of caprock, indicating the probability of the existence of caprock at the location of the trap to be drilled; C ef The cap rock effectiveness indicates the probability that the cap rock at the location of the trap to be drilled has effective sealing capacity.

7. A method for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled according to claim 6, characterized in that: Where, L c is the maximum length of the cap phase belt within the known cap phase belt; L cc It is the minimum distance between the location of the trap to be drilled and the edge of the caprock facies zone; C ef =min{H c / H cmax ,P cmin / P c ,K cmin / K c }; In the formula, H c H is the cap rock thickness at the location of the trap to be drilled; cmax P is the maximum thickness of the cap rock in the cap rock phase where the trap to be drilled is located; c P is the cap rock porosity at the location of the trap to be drilled; cmin K is the minimum porosity of the cap rock in the cap rock phase where the trap to be drilled is located; c K is the cap rock permeability at the location of the trap to be drilled; cmin It is the minimum permeability of the cap rock in the cap rock phase zone where the trap to be drilled is located.

8. The method for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled according to claim 1, characterized in that: Determining the trap coefficient includes: T=T ex *T ef ; Where T is the trap coefficient, which indicates the probability that the trap to be drilled has favorable trap conditions; T ex is the existence of the trap, indicating the probability that a trap exists at the location of the trap to be drilled; T ef The effectiveness of the trap indicates the probability that the trap at the location of the trap to be drilled has effective trapping capacity.

9. A method for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled according to claim 8, characterized in that: Where X1 is the minimum spacing of 2D seismic lines in the direction of the main survey line, and X2 is the minimum spacing of 2D seismic lines in the direction of the tie survey line; T ef =min{H t / H tmax ,1 / (N t +1)}; In the formula, H t is the thickness of the lateral butt plugging layer at the location of the trap to be drilled, H tmax Closing height of the trap to be drilled, N t is the number of faults controlling the trap to be drilled, N t ≥0, N of anticline trap t =0.

10. A method for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled according to any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized in that: The exploration success rate of the trap to be drilled is calculated based on the oil source coefficient, reservoir coefficient, cap rock coefficient and trap coefficient, including: S = 25*(O+R+C+T); Where S is the exploration success rate of the trap to be drilled; O is the oil source coefficient; R is the reservoir coefficient; C is the cap rock coefficient; and T is the trap coefficient.

11. A system for determining the success rate of exploration of a trap to be drilled, characterized in that: include: The first calculation unit is used to determine the oil source coefficient, the reservoir coefficient, the cap rock coefficient and the trap coefficient; The second calculation unit is used to calculate the success rate of exploration of the trap to be drilled based on the oil source coefficient, the reservoir coefficient, the cap rock coefficient and the trap coefficient.

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