Method for evaluating coupling coordination degree of peak-reaching carbon neutralization and ecological environment quality

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating the coupling coordination degree of carbon neutralization and ecological environment quality when carbon reaches a peak. Comprising the following steps: (1) constructing a comprehensive index evaluation system for realizing the goal of carbon reaching the peak and carbon neutralization as well as first-level indexes and second-level indexes of the comprehensive index evaluation system; (2) constructing a comprehensive index evaluation system for improving the ecological environment quality target and first-level indexes and second-level indexes of the comprehensive index evaluation system; (3) collecting original data; (4) determining the weight of each secondary index, and determining the comprehensive weight of the secondary indexes in a manner of combining a critic weight method and an entropy weight method; (5) determining the indexes of the first-level indexes; and (6) evaluating the coupling coordination degree between the carbon neutralization and the ecological environment quality when the carbon reaches the peak: evaluating the coupling coordination degree between the two by utilizing a coupling coordination degree model. The method provided by the invention can provide a thought for realizing the synergistic development between the goal of reaching the peak carbon neutralization and the goal of improving the ecological environment quality, and provides a technical support for effectively promoting the synergistic interaction of pollution reduction and carbon reduction and promoting the continuous improvement of the ecological environment quality.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of evaluation technology for achieving the coordinated promotion of development between the goals of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" and improving the quality of the ecological environment, and in particular to an evaluation system for evaluating the degree of coupling and coordination between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and the quality of the ecological environment. Background Art

[0002] With the rapid development of the economy, especially in the rapid development of industrial enterprises, the use of a large amount of fossil energy has caused increasingly serious environmental pollution and greatly increased carbon dioxide emissions. At present, my country's ecological civilization construction has entered a strategic direction focusing on carbon reduction; incorporating the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goal into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction is of great significance to promoting the synergistic efficiency of pollution reduction and carbon reduction and promoting the continuous improvement of ecological environment quality. Establishing and improving a green, low-carbon, circular development economic system and promoting the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development are the basic strategies for solving my country's ecological and environmental problems. Therefore, it is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of the economy and society while improving the quality of the ecological environment to achieve the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goal as soon as possible. Research on the coupling and coordination relationship between achieving the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goal and improving the ecological environment quality goal can provide technical support for the coordinated promotion of development between the two and provide a theoretical basis for promoting the sustainable development of the economy and society. Summary of the invention

[0003] This invention constructs a comprehensive indicator evaluation system for achieving the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goals and a comprehensive indicator evaluation system for improving the ecological environment quality goals. Based on relevant data such as energy consumption, industrial structure, ambient air quality conditions, and wastewater pollutant emissions, an evaluation method is established to evaluate the degree of coupling and coordination between the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and the goal of improving the ecological environment quality.

[0004] The technical solution of the present invention:

[0005] A method for evaluating the coupling coordination degree between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality, the steps are as follows:

[0006] 1) Establish a comprehensive indicator evaluation system for achieving the goals of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality", and determine the first-level and second-level indicators under the comprehensive evaluation indicators.

[0007] By studying the favorable and unfavorable factors that affect the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goals, three indicators, namely energy structure, industrial structure, and ecological carbon sink, are selected as the first-level indicators of the comprehensive indicator evaluation system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality; for energy structure indicators, three indicators, namely wind power generation, solar power generation, and thermal power generation, are selected as second-level indicators; for industrial structure indicators, three indicators, namely unit GDP carbon dioxide emissions, unit GDP energy consumption, and the proportion of secondary industry, are selected as second-level indicators; for ecological carbon sink indicators, three indicators, namely forest coverage, grassland vegetation coverage, and total surface water resources, are selected as second-level indicators. See Table 1 below for specific first-level and second-level indicators.

[0008] Table 1 The first and second level indicators of the comprehensive indicator evaluation system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality

[0009]

[0010] 2) Establish a comprehensive indicator evaluation system for improving the quality of the ecological environment.

[0011] By studying the main factors that affect the quality of the ecological environment, three indicators, namely, atmospheric environmental quality, wastewater pollutant emissions, and solid waste generation and disposal, were selected as the primary indicators under the comprehensive indicator system. For the atmospheric environmental quality indicator, sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) annual average mass concentration, annual average mass concentration of nitrogen oxides, and inhalable particulate matter (PM 10 ) Annual average mass concentration, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) annual average mass concentration and annual ratio of days with good air quality are selected as secondary indicators; for wastewater pollutant discharge indicators, annual chemical oxygen demand (COD), annual ammonia nitrogen, annual total phosphorus and annual total nitrogen are selected as secondary indicators; for solid waste generation and disposal indicators, annual solid waste disposal and annual solid waste generation are selected as secondary indicators. See Table 2 for specific primary and secondary indicators.

[0012] Table 2 First-level and second-level indicators of comprehensive indicator evaluation system of ecological environment quality

[0013]

[0014] 3) Collect raw data of each indicator

[0015] Collect original data related to the above-mentioned secondary evaluation indicators in relevant regions.

[0016] 4) Dimensionless normalization of raw data

[0017] Here are the steps:

[0018] ①Classify the secondary indicators

[0019] If the secondary indicator has a favorable impact on the comprehensive indicator, it is marked as a positive indicator. Conversely, if it is an unfavorable impact, it is marked as a negative indicator. The specific indicator classification results are detailed in Table 3 below.

[0020] Table 3. Classification results of secondary indicators

[0021]

[0022]

[0023] ② Dimensionless normalization of positive indicators:

[0024]

[0025] ③ Dimensionless normalization of negative indicators:

[0026]

[0027] Where X i represents the original data, X i ' represents the value after normalization of the original data, i represents the secondary index number, X max Represents the secondary index X i The maximum value, X min Represents the secondary index X i The minimum value of .

[0028] 5) Determine the weight of secondary indicators

[0029] The weights of each secondary indicator are determined by combining the critic weight method with the entropy weight method. The steps for determining the indicator weights by combining the "comprehensive critic-entropy weight method" are as follows:

[0030] ①Critic weight method determines the weight value calculation process:

[0031] Calculate indicator variability:

[0032]

[0033] Calculation indicator conflict:

[0034]

[0035] Calculate the amount of information:

[0036] C j =S j *R j

[0037] Finally, calculate the weight value:

[0038]

[0039] In the above formulas, X ij is the value of the original data of each secondary index after dimensionless normalization according to the above step 4), n represents the number of data columns, i=1…n; k represents the number of secondary indicators, j=1…k; Represents X ij The average value, S j represents the standard deviation of the j-th secondary index, γ ij It represents the correlation coefficient between the indicators, R j represents the total correlation coefficient of the j-th secondary index, C j represents the information content of the j-th secondary index, w j Represents the ciritic weight value of the j-th secondary indicator.

[0040] ② Entropy weight method determines the weight value calculation process:

[0041] Compute the entropy of each dimension:

[0042]

[0043] Calculate redundancy:

[0044] d j =1-E j

[0045] Finally, calculate the weight value:

[0046]

[0047] In the above formulas, n represents the number of data columns, i = 1…n, m represents the number of secondary indicators, j = 1…m, E j represents the entropy of the j-th secondary index, d j represents the redundancy of the jth secondary index, w j Represents the weight value of the j-th secondary indicator.

[0048] ③ Determine the weight value by combining the “critic-entropy weight method”:

[0049] w' j综合 =αw j1 +βw j2

[0050]

[0051] In the above formula, w j1 represents the weight value of the j-th secondary indicator determined by the critic weight method, w j2represents the weight value of the j-th secondary indicator determined by the entropy weight method, and α is w j1 The weight coefficient, β is w j2 The weight coefficient of W j综合 It is the comprehensive “critic-entropy weight method” weight value of the j-th secondary indicator.

[0052] 6) Determine the primary indicator index

[0053] The steps for determining the weight of the first-level indicators are as follows:

[0054] Primary indicator index = ∑ i,j x ij *w j综合

[0055] In the above formula, x ij is the dimensionless normalized secondary index value, w j综合 It is the weight value of the comprehensive “critic-entropy weight method” for the secondary indicators.

[0056] 7) Evaluate the degree of coupling and coordination between achieving the “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” goals and improving the quality of the ecological environment. The specific steps are as follows:

[0057] ① Calculate the comprehensive index

[0058] Carbon peak and carbon neutrality comprehensive index = ∑ first-level indicator index

[0059] The first-level indicator index in the above formula is the energy structure, industrial structure, and ecological carbon sink indicator index.

[0060] Comprehensive index of ecological environment quality = ∑ first-level indicator index

[0061] The first-level indicator index in the above formula is the air environment quality, wastewater pollutant emissions, and solid waste generation and disposal index.

[0062] ② Calculate the coupling coordination degree. The specific steps are as follows:

[0063] The first step is to calculate the coupling degree:

[0064]

[0065] The second step is to calculate the coordination degree:

[0066] T=α*U+β*E

[0067] Finally, the coupling coordination degree is calculated:

[0068]

[0069] In the above formulas: U is the comprehensive index of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, E is the comprehensive index of ecological environment quality, α represents the influence of carbon peak and carbon neutrality on the results, β represents the ecological environment quality, and α=β=0.5 is taken here. C represents the coupling degree, T represents the coordination degree, and D represents the coupling coordination degree. The higher the D value, the more coordinated the coupling relationship between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality.

[0070] The technical effect of the present invention is: the present invention evaluates the degree of coupling and coordination between the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and the ecological environment quality goals through data analysis and the use of coupling coordination models, which can provide ideas for achieving the coordinated promotion of development between the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and the improvement of ecological environment quality goals, and provide technical support for effectively promoting the synergistic efficiency of pollution reduction and carbon reduction and promoting the continuous improvement of ecological environment quality. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0071] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of a method for evaluating the coupling coordination degree of carbon peak and carbon neutrality with ecological environment quality in the present invention.

[0072] Figure 2 This chart shows how the coupling coordination degree between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality changes in different years. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0073] In the following embodiments, the relevant indicator data of an industrial city in the northwest region from 2018 to 2023 are used as an example.

[0074] Figure 1 The method flow of the present invention for evaluating the coupling coordination degree of carbon peak and carbon neutrality with ecological environment quality is demonstrated. The implementation method of the present invention is further explained through examples in combination with the accompanying drawings.

[0075] Example 1

[0076] 1) Establish a comprehensive indicator evaluation system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality and a comprehensive indicator evaluation system for ecological environment quality.

[0077] By studying the favorable and unfavorable factors that affect the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goals, as well as the main factors reflecting the ecological environment quality status and impact, a comprehensive indicator evaluation system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality and a comprehensive indicator evaluation system for ecological environment quality are constructed. Specific primary and secondary indicators are shown in Table 4 below.

[0078] Table 4 Comprehensive evaluation index system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality and comprehensive evaluation index system for ecological environment quality

[0079]

[0080] 2) Raw data collection

[0081] The original data related to the above secondary indicators of an industrial city in Northwest China from 2018 to 2023 are collected. The specific data are shown in Table 5 below.

[0082] Table 5 Original data table of each secondary index

[0083]

[0084]

[0085] 3) Data dimensionless normalization processing The dimensionless normalization processing process of positive indicators:

[0086]

[0087] The dimensionless normalization process of negative indicators:

[0088]

[0089] In the above two formulas, Xi represents the original data, Xi' represents the value after normalization of the original data, i represents the secondary index number, Xmax represents the maximum value of the secondary index Xi, and Xmin represents the secondary index X i The minimum value of .

[0090] The results of dimensionless normalization of the original data related to the secondary indicators are shown in Table 6 below.

[0091] Table 6 Result table after dimensionless normalization of original data

[0092]

[0093]

[0094] 4) Determine the weight of secondary indicators

[0095] ①The first step is to calculate the critic weight value:

[0096] Calculate indicator variability:

[0097]

[0098] Calculation indicator conflict:

[0099]

[0100] Calculate the amount of information:

[0101] C j =S j *R j

[0102] Finally, calculate the weight value:

[0103]

[0104] In the above formulas, X ij It is the value after dimensionless normalization of the original data; n represents the number of data columns, i = 1…n; k represents the number of secondary indicators, j = 1…k; Represents X ij The average value, S j represents the standard deviation of the j-th secondary index, γ ij It represents the correlation coefficient between the indicators, R j represents the total correlation coefficient of the j-th secondary index, C j represents the information content of the j-th secondary index, w j Represents the ciritic weight value of the j-th secondary indicator.

[0105] ②The second step is to determine the weight value according to the entropy weight method:

[0106] Compute the entropy of each dimension:

[0107]

[0108] Calculate redundancy:

[0109] d j =1-E j

[0110] Finally, calculate the weight value:

[0111]

[0112] In the above formulas, n represents the number of data columns, i = 1…n, m represents the number of secondary indicators, j = 1…m, E j represents the entropy of the j-th secondary index, d j represents the redundancy of the jth secondary index, w j Represents the weight value of the j-th secondary indicator.

[0113] ③The third step is to determine the comprehensive weight value of the "critic-entropy weight method":

[0114] w' j综合 =αw j1 +βw j2

[0115]

[0116] In the above formula, w j1 represents the weight value of the j-th secondary indicator determined by the critic weight method, w j2represents the weight value of the j-th secondary indicator determined by the entropy weight method, and α is w j1 The weight coefficient, β is w j2 The weight coefficient of W j综合 It is the comprehensive weight value of the “critic-entropy weight method” of the j-th secondary indicator.

[0117] Substituting the relevant data into the above formulas, the weight values ​​of the secondary indicators are obtained and the results are shown in Tables 7 and 8 below.

[0118] Table 7. Secondary indicator weight results under the comprehensive indicator system of carbon peak and carbon neutrality

[0119]

[0120]

[0121] Table 8 Secondary index weight results under the comprehensive index system of ecological environment quality

[0122]

[0123] 5) Determine the primary indicator index

[0124] Primary indicator index = ∑ i,j x ij *w j综合

[0125] In the above formula, x ij is the result of dimensionless normalization of the secondary index value, w j综合 It is the comprehensive weight value of the “critic-entropy weight method” of the secondary indicator.

[0126] Substituting relevant data and comprehensive weight values ​​into the above formula, we can obtain the primary indicator index values ​​as shown in Tables 9 and 10 below.

[0127] Table 9 Index values ​​of the next level indicators in the comprehensive indicator system of carbon peak and carbon neutrality

[0128]

[0129]

[0130] Table 10 Index values ​​of the next level indicators in the comprehensive indicator system of ecological environment quality

[0131]

[0132] 6) Evaluate the degree of coupling and coordination between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality

[0133] ① Calculate the comprehensive index:

[0134] Comprehensive index = ∑ primary indicator index

[0135] ② Calculate coupling coordination:

[0136] The first step is to calculate the coupling degree:

[0137]

[0138] The second step is to calculate the coordination degree:

[0139] T=α*U+β*E

[0140] Finally, the coupling coordination degree is calculated:

[0141]

[0142] In the above formulas: U is the comprehensive index of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, E is the comprehensive index of ecological environment quality, α represents the influence of carbon peak and carbon neutrality on the results, β represents the influence of ecological environment quality on the results, α=β=0.5, C represents coupling degree, T represents coordination degree, and D represents coupling coordination degree. The higher the D value, the more coordinated the coupling relationship between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality.

[0143] The comprehensive index, coupling degree, coordination degree, and coupling coordination degree calculated using the above formulas are shown in Table 11 below.

[0144] Table 11 Results of comprehensive index, coupling degree, coordination degree and coupling coordination degree

[0145]

[0146] The evaluation of the degree of coupling and coordination between the comprehensive indicators of carbon peak and carbon neutrality and the comprehensive indicators of ecological environment quality in different years is as follows:

[0147] The changes in the coupling coordination degree between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality in different years are as follows: Figure 2 As shown in the figure, it can be seen that during the period from 2018 to 2023, the coupling coordination degree between the two first increased, then slightly decreased, and then increased again, and basically showed an upward trend as a whole; it shows that in recent years, the degree of coordinated development of this city in achieving the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" path and improving the quality of the ecological environment has basically shown an increasing trend year by year, which is of great significance to the synergistic increase of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, the early realization of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, and the promotion of the comprehensive improvement of the ecological environment quality.

[0148] It should be further explained that the above implementation modes are only used for understanding the technical solutions of the present invention, and are not used to limit the protection scope of the present invention. Any obvious adjustments and modifications made to the technical solutions within the technical concept of the present invention should also fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the coupling coordination degree between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality, characterized in that: Here are the steps: 1) Construct a comprehensive indicator evaluation system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, including primary indicators and a series of secondary indicators for industrial structure, energy structure, and ecological carbon sink; 2) Establish a comprehensive indicator evaluation system for ecological environment quality, including primary indicators and a series of secondary indicators for atmospheric environment quality, wastewater pollutant emissions, and solid waste generation and disposal; 3) Collect raw data; 4) Determine the weight of secondary indicators; 5) Determine the primary indicator index; 6) Evaluate the degree of coupling and coordination between achieving the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goals and improving the quality of the ecological environment.

2. According to claim 1, a method for evaluating the coupling coordination degree between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality is characterized by: In step 1), under the comprehensive indicator evaluation system of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the first-level indicator energy structure includes three second-level indicators: wind power generation, solar power generation, and thermal power generation; the industrial structure indicators include three second-level indicators: carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP, energy consumption per unit GDP, and the proportion of secondary industry; the ecological carbon sink indicators include three second-level indicators: forest coverage rate, grassland vegetation coverage, and total surface water resources.

3. According to claim 1, a method for evaluating the coupling coordination degree between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality is characterized by: In step 2), under the comprehensive indicator evaluation system of ecological environment quality, the first-level indicator of atmospheric environment quality includes the annual average mass concentration of sulfur dioxide SO2, nitrogen oxides NO x Annual average mass concentration, inhalable particulate matter PM 10 Annual average mass concentration, fine particulate matter PM 2.5 The wastewater pollutant emission indicators include four secondary indicators: annual chemical oxygen demand (COD), annual ammonia nitrogen, annual total phosphorus and annual total nitrogen; the solid waste generation and disposal indicators include two secondary indicators: annual solid waste disposal and annual solid waste generation.

4. According to claim 1, a method for evaluating the coupling coordination degree between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality is characterized by: In step 3), the collected raw data are data related to the secondary indicators under each comprehensive indicator system in claim 2 or 3.

5. According to claim 1, a method for evaluating the coupling coordination degree between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality is characterized by: In step 4), when determining the weight of the secondary indicator, the original data related to the secondary indicator is first dimensionally normalized. The specific steps of the normalization method are as follows: 1) Classify the original data of each secondary indicator. If the indicator value is positively correlated with the comprehensive indicator target, it is marked as a positive indicator. If the indicator value is negatively correlated with the comprehensive indicator target, it is marked as a negative indicator. 2) Dimensionless normalization process of positive indicators: The dimensionless normalization process of negative indicators: In the above two formulas, X i Represents the original data, X i ' represents the value of the normalized original data, i represents the secondary index number, and Xmax represents the secondary index X i The maximum value of Xmin represents the secondary index X i The minimum value of .

6. A method for evaluating the coupling coordination degree between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 4), the weights of each secondary indicator are determined by combining the critic weight method with the entropy weight method. The specific steps are as follows: 1) The first step is to determine the critic weight value: ①Calculate the variability of indicators: ②Calculation index conflict: ③Calculate the amount of information: C j =S i *R j ④Calculate critic weight value: In the above formulas, X ij is the value of the original data of each secondary index after dimensionless normalization processing according to claim 5, n represents the number of data columns, i=1...n; k represents the number of secondary indicators, j=1...k; Represents X ij The average value, S j represents the standard deviation of the j-th secondary index, γ ij It represents the correlation coefficient between the indicators, R j represents the total correlation coefficient of the j-th secondary index, C j represents the information content of the j-th secondary index, w j Represents the ciritic weight value of the jth secondary indicator; 2) The second step is to use the entropy weight method to determine the weight value: ① Calculate the entropy of each dimension: ② Calculate redundancy: d j =1-E j ③Calculate the weight value: In the above formulas, n represents the number of data columns, i = 1…n, m represents the number of secondary indicators, j = 1…m, E j represents the entropy of the jth secondary index, d j represents the redundancy of the jth secondary index, w j Represents the weight value of the j-th secondary indicator; 3) The third step is to determine the comprehensive "critic-entropy weight method" weight value: w' j综合 =αw j1 +βw j2 In the above formulas, w j1 represents the weight value of the j-th secondary index determined by the critic weight method, w j2 represents the weight value of the j-th secondary indicator determined by the entropy weight method, and α is w j1 The weight coefficient, β is w j2 The weight coefficient of W j综合 is the comprehensive "critic-entropy weight method" weight value of the j-th secondary indicator.

7. A method for evaluating the coupling coordination degree between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 5), the calculation process of the primary indicator index is as follows: Primary indicator index = ∑ i,j x ij *w j综合 In the above formula, x ij is the dimensionless normalized value of the secondary indicator data, w j综合 It is the weight value of the comprehensive "critic-entropy weight method" of the secondary indicators.

8. According to claim 1, a method for evaluating the coupling coordination degree between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality is characterized by: In step 6), the specific steps for evaluating the degree of coupling and coordination between achieving the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goals and improving the quality of the ecological environment are as follows: ① Calculate the comprehensive index: Comprehensive index = ∑ primary indicator index ② Calculate the coupling coordination degree between the comprehensive indicator system of carbon peak and carbon neutrality and the comprehensive indicator system of ecological environment quality. The specific calculation steps are as follows: First calculate the coupling degree: Then calculate the coordination degree: T=α*U+β*E Finally, the coupling coordination degree is calculated: In the above formulas: U is the comprehensive index of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, E is the comprehensive index of ecological environment quality, α represents the influence of carbon peak and carbon neutrality on the results, β represents the ecological environment quality, and α=β=0.5 is set here. C represents the coupling degree, T represents the coordination degree, and D represents the coupling coordination degree. The higher the D value, the more coordinated the coupling relationship between carbon peak and carbon neutrality and ecological environment quality.

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