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Method for predicting natural demands on public bicycle rental spots

A technology for public bicycles and demand forecasting, applied in forecasting, buying/selling/lease transactions, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of potential user loss, aging, inconvenience in finding return points, etc., to reduce dispatching costs, reduce savings, and improve dispatching management. The effect of efficiency

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-02-18
ZHEJIANG UNIV OF TECH
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] (2) It is inconvenient to find a return point, the coverage of the public bicycle network is still limited, and the layout planning needs to be optimized
[0005] (3) Problems such as poor equipment maintenance and aging
[0006] It can be seen that the above reasons will lead to the loss of some potential users, and the public bicycle rental demand reflected by the current public bicycle system has not yet included the potential user demand

Method used

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  • Method for predicting natural demands on public bicycle rental spots
  • Method for predicting natural demands on public bicycle rental spots
  • Method for predicting natural demands on public bicycle rental spots

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
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Embodiment Construction

[0041] Refer to the attached picture:

[0042] The natural demand forecasting method for public bicycles, the specific steps include:

[0043] Step 1 Prediction of sharing rate of public bicycles

[0044] 11 Establish a sharing rate forecasting model

[0045] Assumption A n Select a set of plans for the travel mode of traveler n, V in The utility function of choosing transportation mode i for traveler n, then traveler n selects the travel option set A n The probability of choosing the i-th travel mode in is shown in formula (1).

[0046] P in = e V in Σ j = 1 A n e V jn -...

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Abstract

A method for predicting natural demands on public bicycle rental spots includes the steps of 1, predicting a share ratio of public bicycles, to be specific, establishing a share ratio prediction model, quantifying trip characteristic indexes, and establishing a utility function; 2, predicting the natural demands on public bicycles, to be specific, subjecting the share ratio of public bicycles, predicted in the step 1, and an actual share ratio to correlation analysis, and based on large-sample historical data of rental spots, predicting the natural demands on pubic bicycle rental spots by means of correlation coefficient.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting natural demand of public bicycle rental points. Background technique [0002] Since Hangzhou took the lead in launching the public bicycle system (PBS) in China on May 1, 2008, it has now reached nearly 3,000 rental points and a scale of 70,000 bicycles. Since 2010, the average daily rental volume of the system has reached 230,000 person-times, with a maximum daily rental volume of 365,500 person-times. With the gradual increase in the scale and frequency of use of the public bicycle system, a series of problems have also been brought to the management and service of the public bicycle system. Mainly manifested in: [0003] (1) The lock piles at some rental points are empty for too long, causing some users to be unable to borrow a car; the lock piles at some rental points are full for too long, and users cannot return bicycles in time. [0004] (2) It is inconvenient to find a return point, the covera...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q30/06
CPCG06Q10/06315G06Q10/06375
Inventor 董红召吴满金刘冬旭陈宁
Owner ZHEJIANG UNIV OF TECH
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