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A photovoltaic prediction accuracy evaluation method and device considering the sun position

A technology for predicting accuracy and the position of the sun, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, system integration technology, etc., can solve problems such as the inability to effectively compare the pros and cons of different prediction results, and the general preference of evaluation results, so as to achieve objective evaluation and simple method effective effect

Active Publication Date: 2021-03-02
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +3
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Problems solved by technology

However, since the photovoltaic power generation curve has the typical "steamed bread" characteristics, if the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is used as the denominator in all time periods, the relative error of the prediction results of photovoltaic power generation will be calculated, and the evaluation results obtained by calculation will generally be biased and cannot be effectively compared. The pros and cons of different prediction results

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  • A photovoltaic prediction accuracy evaluation method and device considering the sun position
  • A photovoltaic prediction accuracy evaluation method and device considering the sun position
  • A photovoltaic prediction accuracy evaluation method and device considering the sun position

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[0028]The specific embodiments of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0029]Such asfigure 1As shown, a photovoltaic prediction accuracy evaluation method that considers the position of the sun includes:

[0030](1) Define the threshold p of the proportion of installed capacity at the moment of exemption from evaluation;

[0031](2) Calculate the maximum theoretical output of photovoltaic power generation; step (2) includes calculating the maximum theoretical output of photovoltaic power generation at time t based on the photovoltaic capacity C, conversion efficiency, inclination, latitude and longitude, and the solar position at the time to be evaluatedThe calculation process is: a. Calculate the solar radiation intensity outside the atmosphere; b. Calculate the solar radiation intensity reaching the ground; c. Calculate the maximum theoretical output of photovoltaic power generation through the photoelectric conver...

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Abstract

The present invention relates to a photovoltaic prediction accuracy evaluation method and device considering the position of the sun, including: defining the installed capacity ratio threshold p at the evaluation-free time; calculating the maximum theoretical output of photovoltaic power generation; The product of the proportional threshold p is used to judge the relative error of the prediction; the evaluation index of the photovoltaic power prediction accuracy is obtained; and the evaluation of the evaluation index of the photovoltaic prediction accuracy is completed by comparison. This method can effectively reflect the size of photovoltaic power generation prediction errors in different time periods, and can realize the classification of different prediction results, so as to obtain objective prediction accuracy evaluation results; effectively improve the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power generation power.

Description

Technical field[0001]The invention relates to the technical field of energy power generation, and in particular to a method and device for evaluating the accuracy of photovoltaic prediction considering the position of the sun.Background technique[0002]Photovoltaic power generation is different from conventional power sources, and it needs to make power predictions in advance to guide the dispatch and operation of the power system. At present, domestic and foreign scholars have proposed a variety of photovoltaic power generation power prediction methods, and multiple photovoltaic power generation power prediction systems developed by many companies are in operation. However, due to cloud cover and other reasons, photovoltaic power generation is characterized by randomness and difficult to predict. The results of each photovoltaic power prediction system are not the same. Therefore, it is necessary to objectively evaluate the accuracy of photovoltaic power generation power prediction ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY02E40/70Y04S10/50
Inventor 刘德伟黄越辉王跃峰董存范高锋张节潭张楠礼晓飞高云峰马烁董凌李驰许晓艳张勋潘霄锋李丽王江元
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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