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Photovoltaic prediction precision assessment method and device giving consideration to sun position

A technology for predicting accuracy and the position of the sun, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of general preference of evaluation results and the inability to effectively compare the pros and cons of different prediction results, and achieve the goal of simple and effective methods and objective evaluation Effect

Active Publication Date: 2017-05-10
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +3
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Problems solved by technology

However, since the photovoltaic power generation curve has the typical "steamed bread" characteristics, if the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is used as the denominator in all time periods, the relative error of the prediction results of photovoltaic power generation will be calculated, and the evaluation results obtained by calculation will generally be biased and cannot be effectively compared. The pros and cons of different prediction results

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  • Photovoltaic prediction precision assessment method and device giving consideration to sun position

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Embodiment Construction

[0028] The specific implementation manners of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0029] Such as figure 1 As shown, a photovoltaic forecasting accuracy evaluation method considering the sun position, including:

[0030] (1) Define the installed capacity ratio threshold p at the time of exemption from evaluation;

[0031] (2) Calculate the maximum theoretical output of photovoltaic power generation; step (2) includes, according to the photovoltaic capacity C, conversion efficiency, inclination angle, longitude and latitude, and the position of the sun at the moment to be evaluated, calculate the maximum theoretical output of photovoltaic power generation at time t The calculation process is: a. Calculate the solar radiation intensity outside the atmosphere; b. Calculate the solar radiation intensity reaching the ground; c. Calculate the maximum theoretical output of photovoltaic power generation thro...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a photovoltaic prediction precision assessment method and device giving consideration to the sun position, and the method comprises the steps: defining an installed capacity proportion threshold value p at an evaluation-free moment; calculating the maximum theoretical output of photovoltaic power generation; judging a relative error of prediction through the product of the maximum theoretical output of photovoltaic power generation and the installed capacity proportion threshold value p; obtaining prediction precision evaluation index of photovoltaic power; and completing the evaluation of the photovoltaic prediction precision evaluation index through comparison. The method can effectively reflect the sizes of photovoltaic power generation prediction errors in different time segments, can grade the quality of different prediction results, and obtains the objective prediction precision evaluation result. The method effectively improves the prediction precision of photovoltaic power.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of energy power generation, in particular to a photovoltaic prediction accuracy evaluation method and device considering the position of the sun. Background technique [0002] Photovoltaic power generation is different from conventional power sources, and its power generation needs to be predicted in advance to guide the dispatching operation of the power system. At present, scholars at home and abroad have proposed a variety of photovoltaic power prediction methods, and several photovoltaic power prediction systems developed by many companies are in operation. However, due to cloud cover and other reasons, photovoltaic power generation has the characteristics of randomness, and it is difficult to predict. The results of various photovoltaic power prediction systems are not the same. Therefore, it is necessary to objectively evaluate the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power generation to achieve surviva...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY02E40/70Y04S10/50
Inventor 刘德伟黄越辉王跃峰董存范高峰张节潭张楠礼晓飞高云峰马烁董凌李驰许晓艳张勋潘霄锋李丽王江元
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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