Method, device and storage medium for determining transmission line fault probability based on natural coupling characteristics of environmental information

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method, device and storage medium for determining the probability of transmission line failure based on the natural coupling characteristics of environmental information, and belongs to the technical field of transmission line failure analysis. The method includes: obtaining environmental factor data of the environment in which each line segment of the transmission line is located; for each line segment, based on the obtained environmental factor data, calculating the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data; decoupling the power system environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data; calculating the reliability of each line segment of the transmission line according to the independent environmental factor data; calculating the failure probability of the entire transmission line under the influence of the comprehensive environment according to the reliability of each line segment of the transmission line. The present invention can realize the failure probability determination of the transmission line in a short time scale, and the result is more in line with the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of external natural disasters, so the accuracy is higher.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of safe and stable operation of power systems and disaster prevention and mitigation, and in particular to a method, device and storage medium for determining the fault probability of a power transmission line based on the natural coupling characteristics of environmental information. Background Art

[0002] It is inevitable that external disasters will cause power component and system failures. In order to reduce the impact of power system failures and avoid major blackouts, the existing research on external disaster defense methods mainly focuses on the research on power system safety and stability defense methods. Based on the analysis of the evolution law of major blackouts, my country's power workers have summarized three lines of defense methods and built a safety and stability defense system. However, the failure rate of expected failures in this system is an offline, fixed average failure rate (monthly / annual average, etc.) obtained based on the statistical analysis of historical data. Since external natural disasters have significant spatiotemporal distribution characteristics, the intensity of disasters suffered by power components at different times varies greatly. The failure rate of power components is a variable related to the intensity of external disasters and will seriously deviate from the long-term statistical average. Traditional safety and stability control cannot effectively reflect the impact of future short-term (min / h) operating state changes on system operation risks, making the fault risk assessment results too optimistic and potential serious faults not receiving timely attention, resulting in deviations in the focus of system safety and stability defense, and the possibility of being unable to defend against major blackouts. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, device and storage medium for determining the fault probability of a power transmission line based on the natural coupling characteristics of environmental information, which can realize the fault probability determination of power components in a short time scale, and the result is more consistent with the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of external natural disasters, so the accuracy is higher. The technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows.

[0004] In one aspect, the present invention provides a method for determining a transmission line fault probability, comprising:

[0005] Obtain the environmental factor data of the environment in which each line section of the transmission line is located;

[0006] For each line file, based on the environmental factor data within a specified period, the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data is calculated;

[0007] Decoupling the environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data;

[0008] Calculating the reliability of each line level of the transmission line based on the independent data of the environmental factors;

[0009] According to the reliability of each line section of the transmission line, the failure probability of the entire transmission line under the influence of the comprehensive environment is calculated.

[0010] Optionally, the environmental factor data includes at least one or more of the number of lightning strikes, rainfall, ice thickness, distance from the fire scene, and wind speed data.

[0011] Various types of data in the environmental factor data can be stored in a specified data format, and the specified data format can be: [data occurrence time, data occurrence location, data type, attribute value].

[0012] Optionally, the method further includes: normalizing the attribute values ​​in the acquired environmental factor data;

[0013] The calculating of the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data comprises: calculating the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data based on the normalized power system environmental factor data;

[0014] Among them, the normalization formula is: i.p.u. =x i / x i_max , x i.p.u. represents the standard value after normalization, x i represents the data attribute value of the i-th environmental factor, x i_max Represents the risk threshold value of the data attribute value of the i-th environmental factor.

[0015] Optionally, the calculating coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data includes:

[0016] For any two types of environmental factor data, the attribute value X j and X i , calculate the degree of mutual influence between the two ij :

[0017] ρ ij =ΔX i / ΔX j

[0018] In the formula, ρ ij Indicates the degree to which the change of the i-th environmental factor data causes the change of the j-th environmental factor data, ρ ij ∈[-1,1]; ΔX i and ΔX j They represent the change in the data of the i-th environmental factor and the j-th environmental factor respectively;

[0019] According to the degree of mutual influence of all different types of environmental factors, the environmental factor data association matrix is ​​expressed as:

[0020]

[0021] In the formula, n represents the number of environmental factor types. This step achieves the quantification of the coupling relationship between environmental factors.

[0022] Optionally, decoupling the environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data includes:

[0023] According to the environmental factor data association matrix, the environmental factor independent data vector X′ after the environmental factor data is decoupled is calculated according to the following formula:

[0024] X′=ρ u X p.u.

[0025] In the formula, X p.u. is the standard value x after normalization of the environmental factor data x p.u. The environmental factor independent data vector is a single environmental factor data without the influence of other environmental factors.

[0026] Optionally, the reliability of each line level is calculated according to the independent data of the environmental factors, including:

[0027] According to the environmental factors of the line file environment, the independent data vector X′=[X 1 ′,X 2 ′,X 3 ′,…,X n ′], the reliability of the line file is calculated according to the following formula:

[0028] P r_e (X′) = F(X 1 ′)×F(X 2 ′)×F(X 3 ′)×…×F(X n ′)

[0029] Where P r_e (X′) represents the reliability of the e-th line file under the influence of the environmental independent vector X′, F(X i ′) represents the independent data variable X of the line file in the environmental factor i Reliability function under ′. There are related prior arts for reliability calculation of power transmission lines under different environments, which will not be described here.

[0030] Optionally, the calculation of the failure probability of the entire transmission line under the influence of the comprehensive environment according to the reliability of each line file includes:

[0031] According to the reliability of each line level of the transmission line, the reliability of the entire transmission line under the influence of the comprehensive environment is calculated. The formula is:

[0032]

[0033] In the formula, E represents the line profile set of the transmission line;

[0034] According to the reliability of the entire transmission line, the failure probability of the transmission line under the influence of comprehensive environment is calculated as:

[0035]

[0036] In the above scheme, when calculating the reliability of the entire transmission line, the entire transmission line is regarded as a series system of all line files.

[0037] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a device for determining a transmission line fault probability, comprising:

[0038] An environmental data acquisition module is configured to acquire environmental factor data of the environment in which each line section of the transmission line is located;

[0039] A coupling relationship calculation module is configured to calculate coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data based on environmental factor data within a specified period for each line file;

[0040] An environmental factor decoupling module is configured to decouple the environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data;

[0041] A reliability calculation module is configured to calculate the reliability of each line level of the transmission line according to the independent data of the environmental factors;

[0042] And, the failure probability determination module is configured to calculate the failure probability of the entire transmission line under the influence of the comprehensive environment according to the reliability of each line level of the transmission line.

[0043] Optionally, the coupling relationship calculation module calculates the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data, including:

[0044] For any two types of environmental factor data, the attribute value X j and X i , calculate the degree of mutual influence between the two ij :

[0045] ρ ij =ΔX i / ΔX j

[0046] In the formula, ρ ij Indicates the degree to which the change of the i-th environmental factor data causes the change of the j-th environmental factor data, ρ ij ∈[-1,1]; ΔX i and ΔX jThey represent the change in the data of the i-th environmental factor and the j-th environmental factor respectively;

[0047] According to the degree of mutual influence of all different types of environmental factors, the environmental factor data association matrix is ​​expressed as:

[0048]

[0049] Where n represents the number of environmental factor types.

[0050] Optionally, the environmental factor decoupling module decouples the environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data, including:

[0051] According to the environmental factor data association matrix, the environmental factor independent data vector X′ after the environmental factor data is decoupled is calculated according to the following formula:

[0052] X′=ρ u X p.u.

[0053] Where, X p.u. is the standard value x after normalization of the environmental factor data x p.u. The environmental factor data vector.

[0054] Optionally, the reliability calculation module calculates the reliability of each line level according to the independent data of environmental factors, including:

[0055] According to the environmental factors of the line file environment, the independent data vector X′=[X 1 ′,X 2 ′,X 3 ′,…,X n ′], the reliability of the line file is calculated according to the following formula:

[0056] P r_e (X′) = F(X 1 ′)×F(X 2 ′)×F(X 3 ′)×…×F(X n ′)

[0057] Where P r_e (X′) represents the reliability of the e-th line file under the influence of the environmental independent vector X′, F(X i ′) represents the line file in the independent environmental factor variable X i The reliability function of .

[0058] In a third aspect, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the method for determining the transmission line fault probability as described in the first aspect.

[0059] Beneficial Effects

[0060] The method for determining the fault probability of a power transmission line of the present invention takes into account the fact that the transmission line is long and the environments of the different line sections are inevitably quite different. The environmental factors of the environment of each line section of the transmission line are analyzed separately, and then the fault probability of the entire transmission line is obtained by integrated calculation, which can improve the accuracy of the results of the fault probability analysis of the transmission line.

[0061] At the same time, the present invention takes into account the correlation between disasters, regards the attributes of the external environment in which the transmission line is located as a whole, quantifies the changing relationship between various types of environmental factor data, decouples different types of environmental factor data according to the quantified relationship, and performs reliability calculations under various environmental factors based on the decoupled environmental factor data, and then integrates and calculates the reliability of each line file, and finally obtains the failure probability of the entire transmission line, further improving the accuracy of the failure probability assessment results, realizing the comprehensive failure probability assessment of the transmission line under the influence of various external environments, and being able to provide reliable decision-making support for disaster prevention and mitigation of the power system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0062] Figure 1 The figure is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of a method for determining a power transmission line fault probability according to the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0063] The technical concept of the present invention is: first, according to the change relationship between different types of environmental factor data, the coupling relationship between environmental factor data is explored and quantified, and then the environmental factor data of the environment in which each line segment of the transmission line is located is decoupled according to the quantified coupling relationship to obtain a comprehensive environmental factor vector, and according to the influence of each element in the comprehensive environmental factor vector on the reliability of the line segment, the reliability of a single line segment is calculated, and then the failure probability of the entire transmission line is obtained by integration and inference, thereby improving the accuracy of the transmission line failure probability analysis results.

[0064] The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0065] Example 1

[0066] This embodiment introduces a method for determining a transmission line fault probability, including:

[0067] Obtain the environmental factor data of the environment in which each line section of the transmission line is located;

[0068] For each line file, based on the environmental factor data within a specified period, the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data is calculated;

[0069] Decoupling the environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data;

[0070] Calculating the reliability of each line level of the transmission line based on the independent data of the environmental factors;

[0071] According to the reliability of each line section of the transmission line, the failure probability of the entire transmission line under the influence of the comprehensive environment is calculated.

[0072] For the specific implementation process of this embodiment, please refer to Figure 1 As shown, including the following.

[0073] 1. Obtain the comprehensive external environment vector X of each line file of the transmission line

[0074] For transmission lines, environmental factors, especially natural disasters, are the main influencing factors of their failures. Taking natural disasters such as lightning, heavy rain, ice cover, wildfires, and strong winds as examples, the relevant environmental factor data include the number of lightning strikes, rainfall, ice cover thickness, distance from the fire site, wind speed data, etc.

[0075] The comprehensive external environmental factor measurement values ​​of each line of any transmission line can be obtained from the meteorological disaster warning system of the power department, forming an n-dimensional comprehensive external environment vector X = [X 1 ,X 2 ,X 3 ,…,X n ], each element in the vector includes multiple data and related attribute values ​​of different time periods. Each data x in each type of environmental factor data can be stored in a specified data format, which can be: [data occurrence time, data occurrence location, data type, attribute value], which is convenient for subsequent analysis.

[0076] 2. Calculate the normalized vector X of the comprehensive external environment p.u.

[0077] In order to unify the dimensions between different types of data and facilitate decoupling processing, this embodiment normalizes the attribute values ​​in the acquired environmental factor data, and then calculates the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data based on the normalized power system environmental factor data; wherein the normalization processing formula is:

[0078] x i.p.u. =x i / x i_max ,

[0079] x i.p.u.represents the standard value after normalization, x i Represents the data attribute value of the i-th environmental factor, which is the element X in the vector X i The lower level element of x i_max Represents the risk threshold value of the data attribute value of the i-th environmental factor.

[0080] Therefore, the normalized vector of the comprehensive external environment is expressed as: X p.u. =[X 1.p.u. ,X 2.p.u. ,…,X n.p.u. ], where the normalized vector element X corresponding to the i-th environmental factor i.p.u. =[x ik.p.u. ], k∈[1,K], K is the number of data obtained under the i-th type of environmental factors.

[0081] 3. Calculation of the comprehensive external environment independent vector X′

[0082] This step requires first quantifying the coupling relationship between different types of environmental factor data, and then decoupling them based on the coupling relationship. The specific steps are as follows.

[0083] 3.1 Calculate the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data, including:

[0084] For any two types of environmental factor data, the attribute value X j and X i , calculate the degree of mutual influence between the two ij :

[0085] ρ ij =ΔX i / ΔX j

[0086] In the formula, ρ ij Indicates the degree to which the change of the i-th environmental factor data causes the change of the j-th environmental factor data, ρ ij ∈[-1,1]; ΔX i and ΔX j They respectively represent the change in the i-th type of environmental factor data and the change in the j-th type of environmental factor data; the change can be calculated by calculating the data change within a specified period of time, and the method for calculating the change can adopt existing technology.

[0087] At this point, according to the degree of mutual influence of all different types of environmental factors, the environmental factor data association matrix ρ can be obtained u , expressed as:

[0088]

[0089] In the formula, n represents the number of environmental factor types. It can be seen that ρ u is an upper triangular matrix describing the relationship between different external environmental elements, ρ ij ∈[-1,1], and when i=j, ρ ij = 1. That is, the coupling relationship between environmental factors is quantified.

[0090] 3.2 Based on the coupling relationship information, that is, the environmental factor data correlation matrix ρ u , decouple the environmental factor data to obtain the independent data of environmental factors, that is, the decoupled independent data vector X′ of environmental factors, and the formula is:

[0091] X′=ρ u X p.u.

[0092] In the formula, X p.u. is the standard value x after normalization of the environmental factor data x p.u. The environmental factor data vector composed of each type of environmental factor data can be calculated by the above formula to obtain the normalized data x p.u. The decoupled data x′ p.u. The independent data vector of environmental factors is the single environmental factor data without the influence of other environmental factors, that is, the decoupling of the environmental factor data from each other is realized at this time.

[0093] 4. Calculate the reliability of each line file based on the independent vector X′

[0094] According to the environmental factors of the line file environment, the independent data vector X′=[X 1 ′,X 2 ′,X 3 ′,…,X n ′], where the environmental factor independent data X i ′, the reliability of the line profile can be calculated according to the following formula:

[0095] P r_e (X′) = F(X 1 ′)×F(X 2 ′)×F(X 3 ′)×…×F(X n ′)

[0096] Where P r_e (X′) represents the reliability of the e-th line file under the influence of the environmental independent vector X′, F(X i ′) represents the independent data variable X of the line file in the environmental factor i Reliability function under ′. There are related prior arts for reliability calculation of power transmission lines under different environments, which will not be described here.

[0097] 5. Calculate the failure probability of the entire transmission line

[0098] To obtain the failure probability of the entire transmission line, this embodiment first calculates the reliability of the entire transmission line. The specific steps are as follows.

[0099] 5.1 According to the reliability of each line section of the transmission line, the reliability of the entire transmission line under the influence of the comprehensive environment is calculated. The formula is:

[0100]

[0101] In the formula, E represents the line file set of the transmission line.

[0102] 5.2 According to the reliability of the entire transmission line, the failure probability formula of the transmission line under the comprehensive environmental influence is:

[0103]

[0104] In the above scheme, when calculating the reliability of the entire transmission line, the entire transmission line is regarded as a series system of all line files.

[0105] The above process completely realizes the process of determining the probability of transmission line failure, taking into account the different environments of different sections within the length of the transmission line, and the relationship between different types of environmental factors, which can improve the accuracy of the transmission line fault analysis results.

[0106] Example 2

[0107] Based on the same inventive concept as that of Embodiment 1, this embodiment introduces a device for determining a transmission line fault probability, comprising:

[0108] An environmental data acquisition module is configured to acquire environmental factor data of the environment in which each line section of the transmission line is located;

[0109] A coupling relationship calculation module is configured to calculate coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data based on environmental factor data within a specified period for each line file;

[0110] An environmental factor decoupling module is configured to decouple the environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data;

[0111] A reliability calculation module is configured to calculate the reliability of each line level of the transmission line according to the independent data of the environmental factors;

[0112] And, the failure probability determination module is configured to calculate the failure probability of the entire transmission line under the influence of the comprehensive environment according to the reliability of each line level of the transmission line.

[0113] The specific functional implementation of each of the above functional modules refers to the corresponding method process in Example 1, and is particularly pointed out as follows.

[0114] The coupling relationship calculation module calculates the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data, including:

[0115] For any two types of environmental factor data, the attribute value X j and X i , calculate the degree of mutual influence between the two ij :

[0116] ρ ij =ΔX i / ΔX j

[0117] In the formula, ρ ij Indicates the degree to which the change of the i-th environmental factor data causes the change of the j-th environmental factor data, ρ ij ∈[-1,1]; ΔX i and ΔX j They represent the change in the data of the i-th environmental factor and the j-th environmental factor respectively;

[0118] According to the degree of mutual influence of all different types of environmental factors, the environmental factor data association matrix is ​​expressed as:

[0119]

[0120] Where n represents the number of environmental factor types.

[0121] The environmental factor decoupling module decouples the environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data, including:

[0122] According to the environmental factor data association matrix, the environmental factor independent data vector X′ after the environmental factor data is decoupled is calculated according to the following formula:

[0123] X′=ρ u X p.u.

[0124] In the formula, X p.u. is the standard value x after normalization of the environmental factor data x p.u. The environmental factor data vector.

[0125] The reliability calculation module calculates the reliability of each line level according to the independent data of the environmental factors, including:

[0126] According to the environmental factors of the line file environment, the independent data vector X′=[X 1 ′,X 2′,X 3 ′,…,X n ′], the reliability of the line file is calculated according to the following formula:

[0127] P r_e (X′) = F(X 1 ′)×F(X 2 ′)×F(X 3 ′)×…×F(X n ′)

[0128] Where P r_e (X′) represents the reliability of the e-th line file under the influence of the environmental independent vector X′, F(X i ′) represents the line file in the independent environmental factor variable X i The reliability function of .

[0129] Example 3

[0130] This embodiment introduces a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for determining the fault probability of a power transmission line as described in Embodiment 1 is implemented.

[0131] In summary, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may be in the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Furthermore, the present invention may be in the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0132] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0133] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0134] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0135] The embodiments of the present invention are described above in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, but the present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned specific implementation methods. The above-mentioned specific implementation methods are merely illustrative and not restrictive. Under the enlightenment of the present invention, ordinary technicians in this field can also make many forms without departing from the scope of protection of the purpose of the present invention and the claims, which all fall within the protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining the probability of a transmission line failure, characterized in that: include: Obtain the environmental factor data of the environment in which each line section of the transmission line is located; For each line file, based on the acquired environmental factor data, the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data is calculated; Decoupling the environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data; Calculating the reliability of each line level of the transmission line based on the independent data of the environmental factors; According to the reliability of each line section of the transmission line, calculate the failure probability of the entire transmission line under the influence of comprehensive environment; The calculation of coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data includes: For any two types of environmental factor data, the attribute values and , calculate the degree of mutual influence between the two : ， In the formula, Indicates The change of environmental factor data causes The degree of change in the environmental factor data, ; and Respectively represent The change of environmental factor data and The amount of change in the environmental factor data; According to the degree of mutual influence of all different types of environmental factors, the environmental factor data association matrix is ​​expressed as: ， In the formula, Indicates the number of environmental factor types.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The environmental factor data includes at least one or more of the number of lightning strikes, rainfall, ice thickness, distance from the fire scene, and wind speed data.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that include: Normalize the attribute values ​​in the acquired environmental factor data; The calculating of the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data comprises: calculating the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data based on the normalized power system environmental factor data; Among them, the normalization formula is: , represents the standard value after normalization. Representative Class environment factor data attribute value, Representative The risk threshold value of the data attribute value of the environmental factor class.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Decoupling the environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data includes: According to the environmental factor data association matrix, the environmental factor independent data vector after decoupling the environmental factor data is calculated according to the following formula: : ， In the formula, Environmental factors data Standard value after normalization The environmental factor data vector.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that: Based on the independent data of the environmental factors, the reliability of each line level is calculated, including: Independent data vector based on environmental factors of the line file environment , the reliability of the line file is calculated according to the following formula: ， In the formula, Indicates Environment Independent Vector Reliability under influence, Indicates that the line file has independent data variables in environmental factors The reliability function of .

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that: The above-mentioned calculation of the failure probability of the entire transmission line under the comprehensive environmental influence according to the reliability of each line file includes: According to the reliability of each line level of the transmission line, the reliability of the entire transmission line under the influence of the comprehensive environment is calculated. The formula is: ， In the formula, A line file collection representing a transmission line; According to the reliability of the entire transmission line, the formula for calculating the failure probability of the transmission line under the influence of comprehensive environment is: 。 7. A device for determining the probability of a transmission line failure, characterized in that: include: An environmental data acquisition module is configured to acquire environmental factor data of the environment in which each line section of the transmission line is located; A coupling relationship calculation module is configured to calculate coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data for each line file based on the acquired environmental factor data; An environmental factor decoupling module is configured to decouple the environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data; A reliability calculation module is configured to calculate the reliability of each line level of the transmission line according to the independent data of the environmental factors; and, a failure probability determination module configured to calculate the failure probability of the entire transmission line under the influence of the comprehensive environment according to the reliability of each line level of the transmission line; The coupling relationship calculation module calculates the coupling relationship information between different types of environmental factor data, including: For any two types of environmental factor data, the attribute values and , calculate the degree of mutual influence between the two : ， In the formula, Indicates The change of environmental factor data causes The degree of change in the environmental factor data, ; and Respectively represent The change of environmental factor data and The amount of change in the environmental factor data; According to the degree of mutual influence of all different types of environmental factors, the environmental factor data association matrix is ​​expressed as: ， In the formula, Indicates the number of environmental factor types.

8. The device for determining the fault probability of a power transmission line according to claim 7, characterized in that: The environmental factor decoupling module decouples the environmental factor data according to the coupling relationship information to obtain independent environmental factor data, including: According to the environmental factor data association matrix, the environmental factor independent data vector after decoupling the environmental factor data is calculated according to the following formula: : ， In the formula, Environmental factors data Standard value after normalization The environmental factor data vector.

9. The device for determining the probability of transmission line failure according to claim 8, characterized in that: The reliability calculation module calculates the reliability of each line level according to the independent data of environmental factors, including: Independent data vector based on environmental factors of the environment where the line file is located , the reliability of the line file is calculated according to the following formula: ， In the formula, Indicates Environment Independent Vector Reliability under influence, Indicates that the line file has independent data variables in environmental factors The reliability function of .

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for determining the fault probability of a power transmission line as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

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