Substation flood inundation risk early warning method and system based on different impact types

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method and system for early warning of substation flood inundation risk based on different impact types, which obtains the longitude and latitude, elevation, site layout map, surrounding geographic information map, river information, and historical flood information of the substation in the area to be warned; determines the impact type of the substation; performs rainfall extraction calculation according to the impact type of the substation; obtains the critical rainfall value of the critical warning of each period of heavy rain in the substation determined in advance; and issues a corresponding level of heavy rain warning when it is determined according to the result of rainfall extraction calculation that the critical rainfall value of the critical warning of a certain period of heavy rain in the substation exceeds the critical rainfall value of the critical warning of a certain period of heavy rain in the substation. Advantages: The present invention classifies the impact of heavy rain and flood, and realizes graded early warning of waterlogging disasters in substations caused by heavy rain by organically combining multiple technologies such as meteorological numerical weather forecast, real-time monitoring of watersheds, earth geographic information, and hydrological analysis and calculation.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a method and system for early warning of substation flood inundation risk based on different impact types, belonging to the technical field of safety risk management and control of power equipment and facilities. Background Art

[0002] With the transformation and upgrading of my country's economic and social development, my country's industrial and civil electricity load has gradually increased. This requires strengthening power construction to ensure that my country's power supply needs are met. At present, in some low-lying areas, substations are prone to flood attacks during safe operation, so substation waterlogging disaster prevention is very urgent. China's southeastern coastal provinces are in the subtropical monsoon climate zone, with rain and heat in the same season, abundant rainfall in summer, and frequent heavy rains. Especially when typhoons come, continuous heavy rains can easily turn the substation site into a swamp. In recent years, the problem of waterlogging in substations in coastal areas and heavy rainfall areas has been prominent. Once waterlogging disasters occur, a large number of electrical equipment in the substation will be damaged, seriously threatening the safe operation of the substation. Modern life is inseparable from electricity all the time. If power outages occur on a large scale, it will lead to the collapse of the urban system, causing large-scale losses and unpredictable damage to all aspects of human life. Due to the lack of early warning of substation waterlogging disasters, it can only be dealt with by making up for the loss. After the danger occurs, the common solution is to rush to rescue, carry sandbags to build waterproof walls, and mobilize multiple pumping trucks to drain water. This consumes a lot of manpower and materials, and the losses caused are irreversible. Summary of the invention

[0003] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to overcome the defects of the prior art and provide a method and system for early warning of substation flood inundation risk based on different impact types.

[0004] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a substation flood risk early warning method based on different impact types, including:

[0005] Obtain the longitude and latitude, elevation, site layout map, surrounding geographic information map, river information, and historical flood information of the substation in the area to be warned;

[0006] Determine the substation impact type based on the substation latitude and longitude, elevation, site layout map, surrounding geographic information map, river information, and historical flood information in the area to be warned;

[0007] Rainfall extraction calculations based on substation impact type;

[0008] Obtain the critical rainfall value for critical warning of heavy rain in each period of substation determined in advance based on the historical data of the area to be warned;

[0009] When the result of rainfall extraction calculation is determined to exceed the critical rainfall value of the critical warning of heavy rain in a certain period of time of the substation, a heavy rain warning warning of the corresponding level is issued.

[0010] Furthermore, the substation impact types include:

[0011] The flood-inundation type substation is subject to the risk of flooding from local rivers and ditches;

[0012] Localized rainstorm waterlogging substations are located in hills, mountain depressions, urban low-lying areas, and plain low-lying areas;

[0013] The basin comprehensive impact type substation is located in the plain area of ​​the middle and lower reaches of large rivers or in the plain area of ​​small and medium-sized rivers. The flooding of the substation is affected by the rising water level of nearby rivers.

[0014] Furthermore, the rainfall extraction calculation is performed according to the substation impact type, including:

[0015] Determine the substation impact type as a local rainstorm waterlogging type substation;

[0016] Extract and calculate rainfall at substation sites with local torrential rain and waterlogging, including:

[0017] Collect numerical weather forecast model data from multiple sources, integrate geographic elevation information and climate distribution information, and use the MOSS statistical forecast method to correct the forecast model data error based on the historical real-time meteorological data series and the numerical weather forecast results at that time to obtain a refined grid rainfall forecast product;

[0018] According to the refined grid rainfall forecast product, the rainfall forecast at the substation point is carried out by using any one of the following methods: bilinear interpolation method, cross sample test method, logistic regression method or statistical downscaling correction method;

[0019] According to the rainfall forecast of the substation point, the forecast rainfall values ​​of the substation in different periods are extracted.

[0020] Furthermore, the rainfall extraction calculation is performed according to the substation impact type, including:

[0021] Determine the substation impact type as a flash flood substation;

[0022] Extract and calculate the rainfall in the catchment area where the flash flood substation is located, including:

[0023] Collect numerical weather forecast model data from multiple sources, integrate geographic elevation information and climate distribution information, and use the MOSS statistical forecast method to correct the forecast model data error based on the historical real-time meteorological data series and the numerical weather forecast results at that time to obtain a refined grid rainfall forecast product;

[0024] Determine the location of the substation in the watershed, and use the DEM digital elevation model and hydrological confluence analysis algorithm to generate the substation's catchment area layer;

[0025] GIS spatial analysis is used to overlay the catchment area layer and the refined grid rainfall forecast product to obtain the grid points within the catchment area, and the rainfall values ​​of the grid points within the catchment area are weighted averaged to obtain the regional hourly average rainfall value.

[0026] The regional forecast rainfall values ​​for different periods of time of the substation are extracted based on the regional hourly average rainfall value.

[0027] Furthermore, the step of determining the critical rainfall value for critical warning of heavy rain in each period of the substation according to the historical data of the area to be warned includes:

[0028] Determine the substation impact type as a local rainstorm waterlogging substation, and obtain the preset rainstorm frequency;

[0029] Obtain the maximum 24-hour rainfall contour map and the maximum 24-hour coefficient of variation contour map according to the area corresponding to the substation;

[0030] Determine the maximum 1-hour, 6-hour or 24-hour rainfall value P1, P6 or P6 in the corresponding area according to the maximum 1-hour, 6-hour or 24-hour rainfall contour map and the maximum 1-hour, 6-hour or 24-hour coefficient of variation contour map. 24 and maximum 1 hour, 6 hours or 24 hours coefficient of variation CV1, CV6 or CV 24 ; According to P1 and CV1 and the pre-acquired Pearson III curve modulus ratio coefficient value table, the corresponding modulus ratio coefficient KP1 is determined; according to P6 and CV6 and the pre-acquired Pearson III curve modulus ratio coefficient value table, the corresponding modulus ratio coefficient KP6 is determined; according to P 24 and CV 24 The corresponding modulus ratio coefficient KP is determined by pre-obtaining the modulus ratio coefficient value table of the Pearson III curve 24 , respectively according to KP1, KP6, and KP 24 And the rainstorm intensity formula calculates the point rainfall value H of 1 hour, 6 hours and 24 hours under the corresponding rainstorm frequency 点1 , H 点6 and H 点24 ;

[0031] According to the 1-hour, 6-hour and 24-hour point rainfall values ​​of the substation area and the corresponding point-to-surface rainfall conversion coefficients obtained in advance, the 1-hour surface rainfall H is calculated. 面1 , 6-hour surface rainfall H 面6 and 24-hour surface rainfall H 面24 ;

[0032] According to the 1-hour surface rainfall H 面1 , 6-hour surface rainfall H 面6 and 24-hour surface rainfall H 面24 Determine the critical rainfall value for critical warning in each period under the set rainstorm frequency.

[0033] Furthermore, it also includes: if the actual rainfall at the substation in history exceeds the critical rainfall value but no corresponding flood risk occurs, the critical rainfall value is adjusted to the actual rainfall value this time.

[0034] Furthermore, the step of determining the critical rainfall value for critical warning of heavy rain in each period of the substation according to the historical data of the area to be warned includes:

[0035] Determine the substation impact type as a flash flood substation;

[0036] Obtain the substation's critical flooding water level, safe operation water level, and water level of flooded power facilities;

[0037] Measure or obtain the large section where the substation is located, and use the Manning formula and the corresponding relationship between the distance from the starting point of the large section and the elevation to calculate the cross-section water level-flow relationship curve;

[0038] According to the water level-flow relationship curve, the corresponding characteristic flow is calculated using the characteristic water level;

[0039] Obtain and calculate the catchment area of ​​the flash flood substation. Obtain the catchment area, main stream length, and main stream slope parameters of the area. Use the trial algorithm to calculate the critical rainfall value for the period corresponding to the characteristic flow, thereby calculating the critical rainfall corresponding to each characteristic critical water level.

[0040] Furthermore, the step of determining the critical rainfall value for critical warning of heavy rain in each period of the substation according to the historical data of the area to be warned includes:

[0041] Determined as a substation with comprehensive impact on the watershed;

[0042] According to the historical water level of the river and the water level of the hydrological station, the characteristic water level of different risk levels of substation flooding is established. The characteristic water level refers to the elevation of the flooding risk different from the location of the substation;

[0043] According to the characteristic water level of different risk levels of flooding in the current substation and the water level-flow relationship curve, the corresponding characteristic flow is inferred;

[0044] According to the characteristic flow and real-time future forecast rainfall, the rainfall-runoff correlation method is used to determine the critical rainfall value for critical warning of substation rainstorms in each period.

[0045] A substation flood inundation risk early warning system based on different impact types, including:

[0046] The first acquisition module is used to obtain the longitude and latitude, elevation, site layout map, surrounding geographic information map, river information, and historical flood information of the substation in the area to be warned;

[0047] A type determination module is used to determine the substation impact type based on the longitude and latitude, elevation, site layout diagram, surrounding geographic information map, river information, and historical flood information of the substation in the area to be warned;

[0048] A calculation module for performing rainfall extraction calculations based on the substation impact type;

[0049] The second acquisition module is used to obtain the critical rainfall value for critical warning of heavy rain in each period of the substation determined in advance based on the historical data of the area to be warned;

[0050] The early warning module is used to issue a rainstorm warning of the corresponding level when it is determined that the critical rainfall value of the critical warning of a certain period of rainstorm in the substation is exceeded according to the result of rainfall extraction calculation.

[0051] A computer-readable storage medium storing one or more programs, the one or more programs comprising instructions, which when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform any of the methods described.

[0052] A computing device comprising:

[0053] One or more processors, a memory, and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, and the one or more programs include instructions for executing any of the methods described.

[0054] The beneficial effects achieved by the present invention are:

[0055] The present invention statistically analyzes the actual rainfall and substation rainstorm waterlogging disaster data to obtain the relationship between the corresponding previous effective rainfall and the triggering rainfall, thereby drawing a rainfall threshold curve. The method has high accuracy, but requires very rich and long-term rainfall series data and disaster data. For areas lacking precipitation and disaster data, when the geography, geology, ecology, etc. of these places are similar to those of the areas with determined critical thresholds for disasters, it can be approximately considered that the critical rainfall for disasters is also similar, and can be appropriately adjusted according to actual conditions. Based on the determined critical rainfall, combined with refined precipitation forecasts and radar quantitative precipitation estimation data, disaster monitoring and early warning can be performed for substations. The present invention divides substations affected by rainstorms and floods into three categories: mountain torrent inundation type, local rainstorm waterlogging type, and basin comprehensive impact type. By organically combining multiple technologies such as meteorological numerical weather forecasts, basin real-time monitoring, geography information, and hydrological analysis and calculation, a substation flood inundation risk early warning method based on different impact types is realized, and a graded early warning of substation waterlogging disasters caused by rainstorms is realized. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0056] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the process of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0057] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The following embodiments are only used to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and cannot be used to limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0058] like Figure 1 As shown, a substation flood inundation risk early warning method based on different impact types includes the following steps:

[0059] 1) Collection of substation and related historical data.

[0060] 2) Classification of substation impact types.

[0061] 3) Calculation of rainfall extraction at substation sites.

[0062] 4) Calculation of rainfall extraction in substation area.

[0063] 5) Calculate critical rainfall using the design rainstorm method

[0064] 6) Calculate critical rainfall using the design flood method.

[0065] 7) Calculate critical rainfall using the rainfall-runoff relationship method.

[0066] 8) Real-time assessment of substation flooding risks.

[0067] The step 1) includes the collection of substation and related historical data, and the specific data to be collected are as follows:

[0068] (1) Collect information on the longitude and latitude, elevation, site layout, surrounding geographic information maps, river information, historical flood information, etc. of 220kV and above and some 110kV key substations in Hainan Province;

[0069] (2) Conduct on-site investigation and review the data collected in the early stage to compile a data compilation.

[0070] 11) Collect information such as the longitude and latitude, elevation, site layout map, surrounding geographic information map, river information, historical flood information, etc. of substations at different voltage levels within the warning area.

[0071] 12) Collect flood control design data for substations of different voltage levels.

[0072] 13) Conduct on-site surveys to review the data collected in the early stages, compile a data compilation, and determine how the substation will be affected by floods based on topography and watershed surveys.

[0073] 14) The main purpose of collecting historical data and on-site investigation is to confirm the impact type of substation flooding and the critical rainfall index of flooding risk level determined by relevant historical data.

[0074] The specific implementation method of the substation impact type classification in step 2) is as follows:

[0075] 21) Flash flood substation. When the substation is located on a large mountain river, if a hydropower project has been built upstream, when it reaches a certain flood control design standard and has a certain flood control storage capacity, the hydropower project can play a certain protective role in flood control of the downstream substation and reduce the probability of the substation being threatened by floods. The site is selected on a higher terrain to avoid being affected by upstream floods. The flood risk of this type of substation is mainly the convergence of local river floods, which is called flash flood substation.

[0076] 22) Localized rainstorm waterlogging. When the UHV substation is located on a hill, a depression between mountains, a low-lying area in a city, or a low-lying area in a plain, the site will be attacked by floods and waterlogging in the site area. In other words, when the substation is located on a hill, a depression between mountains, a low-lying area in a city, or a low-lying area in a plain, the flood control of the site depends entirely on the drainage ditches and drainage ditches designed according to the design standards. Once a rainstorm that exceeds the design frequency occurs, water will accumulate quickly, which will affect the safe operation of the substation. This is called the localized rainstorm waterlogging.

[0077] (3) Comprehensive impact of the watershed. When the UHV substation is located in the plain area of ​​the middle and lower reaches of a large river, since the flood control of the middle and lower reaches of the large river is guaranteed by various comprehensive flood control measures (flood forecast, reservoir flood control, embankment engineering, flood diversion measures, etc.), when the substation is located in such an area, its flood control design is inseparable from the flood control system of the entire region. When the regional flood control safety is guaranteed, the flood control safety of the station site is guaranteed. When the substation is located in a small or medium-sized plain river area, the flood control of the station site must rely on the flood control measures of the station site itself, such as the station site elevation is higher than the design flood level. In this case, when the river flood exceeds the design standard, the station site will be threatened by floods. This type is the most difficult and requires comprehensive consideration. If there are flood control facilities nearby, the flood control facilities shall prevail, or the water level and flow of the upstream and nearby rivers shall be used as the basis for risk judgment. It is called the comprehensive impact of the watershed.

[0078] The specific implementation method of the substation site rainfall extraction calculation in step 3) is as follows:

[0079] 31) According to the flood inundation impact type of the substation, the local rainstorm waterlogging type, it is necessary to extract the rainfall information at the location of the substation.

[0080] 32) Integrate numerical weather forecast model data from multiple sources such as China's CMA, Europe's EC, and the United States' GFS, and fuse geographic information, climate distribution and other information, dynamically adjust parameters based on previous samples, correct model errors, incorporate forecast experience, and form a refined grid rainfall forecast product.

[0081] 33) Relying on refined grid rainfall forecasts, using advanced statistical analysis techniques such as machine learning, spatial downscaling is achieved to achieve rainfall forecasts at substations. The specific methods of spatial downscaling are mainly the following:

[0082] 33A) Bilinear interpolation: Bilinear interpolation is an extension of linear interpolation with two variables. The core idea is to perform linear interpolation in two directions. Using bilinear interpolation, the low-resolution numerical forecast results are first interpolated to a more refined substation.

[0083] 33B) Cross-sample test: The test sequence is divided into two sections, including a "training period" and a "forecast period". First, the observations and forecasts in the "training period" are used to calculate and establish a suitable correction model. The model is used to correct the forecasts in the "forecast period". Finally, the observations in the "forecast period" are used as the standard to evaluate the corrected forecasts in the "forecast period" to test the effectiveness of the correction model.

[0084] 33C) Logistic regression method: The application range of logistic regression model is very wide. It is not only applicable to non-normal matrix, but also to factors that are both discrete and continuous variables. Logistic regression model is often used to standardize factor variables. Then, the regression equation is composed of these converted factors to make probability forecasts of the presence or absence or classification of forecast variables such as precipitation.

[0085] 33D) Statistical downscaling correction method: using univariate linear regression, selecting a certain length of training period, and establishing a statistical relationship between the model forecast value and the “observation value” to predict the model precipitation in the forecast period.

[0086] 34) Based on the downscaling method, the forecast rainfall values ​​of each substation in different time periods are extracted. The different time periods generally include 1 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours and 48 hours.

[0087] 35) The calculation of actual rainfall at substations needs to be divided into two situations. For substations that have deployed rain gauges, the rainfall information of the relevant time period can be directly obtained. For substations that have not deployed rain gauges, it is necessary to combine multi-source real-time observation data such as radar, satellite, and ground observations to produce real-time grid rainfall products. A method similar to downscaling of forecast rainfall is used to extract rainfall information at the substation point. The acquired time periods generally include 1 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours, and 48 hours.

[0088] The specific implementation method of the substation area rainfall extraction calculation in step 4) is as follows:

[0089] 41) According to the flood inundation impact type of the substation, the mountain torrent inundation type, it is necessary to extract the rainfall information of the catchment area where the substation is located.

[0090] 42) is similar to 32) to form a refined hourly grid rainfall forecast product.

[0091] 43) Determine the location of the substation in the watershed, use the DEM digital elevation model, and use the hydrological confluence analysis algorithm to generate the substation's catchment area layer.

[0092] 44) Use GIS spatial analysis to overlay the catchment area layer with the hourly grid rainfall forecast product to obtain which grid points are within the catchment area, and perform weighted average of the rainfall values ​​of the grid points within the catchment area to obtain the regional hourly average rainfall value.

[0093] 45) Based on the hourly average rainfall process, the regional forecast rainfall values ​​for each substation in different time periods are extracted. The different time periods generally include 1 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours and 48 hours.

[0094] 45) The calculation of actual rainfall in the water collection area of ​​the substation needs to combine multi-source actual observation data such as radar, satellite, and ground observation to produce actual grid rainfall products. The regional hourly rainfall information of the substation is extracted in a similar way to the calculation of regional forecast rainfall. The regional rainfall in the period is obtained by statistical calculation based on the extracted regional hourly rainfall process. The obtained period generally includes 1 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours, and 48 hours.

[0095] The substation in step 5) is designed to calculate the critical rainfall using the rainstorm method, and the specific implementation method is as follows:

[0096] 51) For local waterlogging-prone substations, each substation will have flood control standard requirements when it is designed. Based on its flood control design standard frequency, the frequency of heavy rain and flood is set to the same frequency, and the frequency of waterlogging rainfall in the substation period is determined. For example, if the substation is built according to the standard of once in 50 years, then its heavy rain frequency is 2%.

[0097] 52) Each province in China has a "Calculation Manual" for heavy rain results. Based on the "Calculation Manual", check the maximum 24-hour rainfall contour map and the maximum 24-hour coefficient of variation contour map, and calculate the maximum 24-hour rainfall value P of the corresponding area. 24 and the maximum 24-hour coefficient of variation CV 24 According to P 24 and CV 24 , check the Pearson III curve modulus ratio coefficient value table, and calculate the corresponding modulus ratio coefficient KP 24 , according to the rainstorm intensity formula, calculate the 24-hour point rainfall value H at the corresponding frequency 点24 .

[0098] 53) Use similar steps as 52) to calculate the 6-hour and 1-hour rainfall H at the corresponding frequency. 点6 Value and H 点1 .

[0099] 54) Check the "Zone-Line Relationship Diagram" in the "Calculation Manual" to obtain the 1, 6, and 24-hour point-to-surface rainfall conversion coefficients for each calculation unit, and perform point-to-surface rainfall conversion calculations based on them. t ~F line relationship diagram, check the 1 / 6 / 24-hour point-surface rainfall conversion coefficients α1, α6, α 24 . Check n2~H t ~F and n3~H t ~F relationship diagram, calculate the 1 / 6 / 24 hour rainfall conversion coefficients n2 and n3 for the area corresponding to the substation.

[0100] 55) According to the 1 / 6 / 24-hour point rainfall value of the substation area and the corresponding point-surface rainfall conversion coefficient, the 1-hour surface rainfall H is calculated. 面1 , 6-hour surface rainfall H 面6 and 24-hour surface rainfall H 面24 On this basis, the surface rainfall formula for each period within 1 to 24 hours is deduced as follows:

[0101] 1 to 6 hours using the formula:

[0102] 6 to 24 hours using the formula:

[0103] 56) The heavy rain value based on the design frequency calculated based on the heavy rain formula has a certain degree of experience and can be used as the initial value of the critical heavy rain warning for the substation. It can be further revised according to the actual heavy rain process. According to the actual rainfall process calculated in step 3, if the actual rainfall of the substation in history exceeds the critical heavy rain warning value but there is no corresponding flood risk, the critical heavy rain warning value can be adjusted to the actual rainfall value this time.

[0104] The substation in step 6) calculates the critical rainfall using the design flood method, and the specific implementation method is as follows:

[0105] 61) For substations flooded by mountain torrents, it is necessary to calculate the water level based on the design rainstorm flood calculation, and reverse the water level value through the rainfall value. According to the flood control standard of the substation design and the flood critical water level and the wind level affecting safe operation given by the field survey, it can be reversed to determine how much rainfall will reach a certain critical water level. The relationship between critical rainfall and critical water level is established through the design rainstorm flood calculation. When conducting specific warnings, it is only necessary to calculate and determine whether the rainfall has reached the critical rainfall value.

[0106] 62) Substation determines water level values ​​such as critical flooding level, safe operation level, and flooding level for power facilities;

[0107] 63) Measure or obtain the large section at the location of the substation, and use the Manning formula and the corresponding relationship between the starting distance and elevation of the large section to calculate the section water level (elevation)-flow relationship curve.

[0108] 64) Based on the water level-flow relationship curve, use the characteristic water level to calculate the corresponding characteristic flow.

[0109] 65) Obtain and calculate the catchment area of ​​the flash flood substation. Obtain the catchment area, main stream length, main stream slope and other parameters of the area. Use the inference formula and trial algorithm to calculate the critical rainfall value of the time period corresponding to the characteristic flow, so as to calculate the critical rainfall value corresponding to each characteristic critical water level.

[0110] The rainfall-runoff relationship method in step 7) is used to calculate the critical rainfall, and its specific implementation method is as follows:

[0111] 71) For most areas located in large rivers, the flooding of substations is affected by the comprehensive conditions of meteorology, runoff and terrain. The flooding mechanism is relatively complex and needs to consider the influence of multiple factors, even human factors. However, there is still the problem of different flooding risk levels under different rainfall levels. The only difference is that the rainfall is no longer the rainfall near the substation, but the rainfall in the basin where the substation is located. The flooding is caused by the flood process formed by the rainfall in the basin. This belongs to the basin comprehensive impact type. This type requires the establishment of a relationship between the water level of the nearby river and the substation.

[0112] 72) Establish characteristic water levels of different risk levels of substation flooding based on river water levels and hydrological stations. This water level refers to the elevation of flooding risks that are different from the location of the substation, such as the elevation of the substation entrance and the elevation that affects the normal operation of the station equipment. For power facilities in flood storage areas and embankment areas on both sides of the river, it is necessary to establish associated overbank water levels, embankment collapse water levels, riverbank elevation water levels, etc.

[0113] 73) Based on the established nearby water levels and characteristic water levels of hydrological stations, the corresponding characteristic flow is inferred using the water level-flow relationship curve.

[0114] 74) According to the current real-time water level of the river, relevant substation flood risk warning is realized; according to the current water level (flow) and future forecast rainfall, the rainfall-runoff correlation method is used to calculate the maximum flow (highest water level) that will be reached in the future, and the water level value is predicted to realize the risk warning of flooding of different levels.

[0115] The specific implementation method of the real-time assessment of the substation flood risk in step 8) is as follows:

[0116] 81) Select the substation for flood risk assessment and determine the type of flood impact on the substation.

[0117] 82) If it is a rainstorm waterlogging type substation, use the rainfall process of the substation extracted in step 3) and the critical rainfall of the corresponding period determined in step 5) to regularly check whether the accumulated rainfall in the current period exceeds the critical rainfall value. If it exceeds, a risk warning prompt is issued.

[0118] 83) If it is a mountain torrent inundation type and a basin comprehensive impact type, use the step 4) to extract and calculate the surface rainfall process affecting the substation and the critical rainfall value of the corresponding time period determined by steps 6) and 7), and regularly check whether the accumulated rainfall in the current period exceeds the critical rainfall. If it exceeds, a risk warning prompt will be issued.

[0119] 84) If it is a comprehensive impact type of the watershed, in addition to the critical rainfall warning prompt in step 83), it is also necessary to combine the water levels of the hydrological stations and water level stations in the watershed where the substation is located to issue risk warning prompts.

[0120] Correspondingly, the present invention also provides a substation flood inundation risk early warning system based on different impact types, including:

[0121] The first acquisition module is used to obtain the longitude and latitude, elevation, site layout map, surrounding geographic information map, river information, and historical flood information of the substation in the area to be warned;

[0122] A type determination module is used to determine the substation impact type based on the longitude and latitude, elevation, site layout diagram, surrounding geographic information map, river information, and historical flood information of the substation in the area to be warned;

[0123] A calculation module for performing rainfall extraction calculations based on the substation impact type;

[0124] The second acquisition module is used to obtain the critical rainfall value for critical warning of heavy rain in each period of the substation determined in advance based on the historical data of the area to be warned;

[0125] The early warning module is used to issue a rainstorm warning of the corresponding level when it is determined that the critical rainfall value of the critical warning of a certain period of rainstorm in the substation is exceeded according to the result of rainfall extraction calculation.

[0126] The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs include instructions, and when the instructions are executed by a computing device, the computing device performs any of the methods described.

[0127] The present invention also provides a computing device, comprising:

[0128] One or more processors, a memory, and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, and the one or more programs include instructions for executing any of the methods described.

[0129] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that contain computer-usable program code.

[0130] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0131] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0132] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, so that the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable device provide for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0133] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the technical principles of the present invention. These improvements and modifications should also be regarded as the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A substation flood inundation risk early warning method based on different impact types, characterized in that: include: Obtain the longitude and latitude, elevation, site layout map, surrounding geographic information map, river information, and historical flood information of the substation in the area to be warned; Determine the substation impact type based on the substation latitude and longitude, elevation, site layout map, surrounding geographic information map, river information, and historical flood information of the area to be warned; Rainfall extraction calculations based on substation impact type; Obtain the critical rainfall value for critical warning of heavy rain in each period of substation determined in advance based on the historical data of the area to be warned; When the rainfall extraction calculation result determines that the critical rainfall value of the critical warning of a certain period of heavy rain in the substation is exceeded, a heavy rain warning of the corresponding level is issued; The substation impact types include: The flood-inundation type substation is subject to the risk of flooding from local rivers and ditches; Localized rainstorm waterlogging substations are located in hills, mountain depressions, urban low-lying areas, and plain low-lying areas; The substation with comprehensive river basin impact is located in the plain area in the middle and lower reaches of a large river or in the plain area of ​​a small or medium-sized river. The substation is flooded by the rising water of the nearby river. The rainfall extraction calculation according to the substation impact type includes: When the substation impact type is a local rainstorm waterlogging substation, the rainfall of the local rainstorm waterlogging substation site is extracted and calculated, including: Collect numerical weather forecast model data from multiple sources, integrate geographic elevation information and climate distribution information, and use the MOSS statistical forecast method to correct the forecast model data error based on the historical real-time meteorological data series and the numerical weather forecast results at that time to obtain a refined grid rainfall forecast product; According to the refined grid rainfall forecast product, the rainfall forecast at the substation point is carried out by using any one of the following methods: bilinear interpolation method, cross sample test method, logistic regression method or statistical downscaling correction method; Extract the forecast rainfall values ​​of the substation at different periods according to the rainfall forecast of the substation point; When the substation impact type is a mountain torrent substation or a river basin comprehensive impact substation; Extract and calculate the rainfall in the catchment area where the mountain torrent substation or basin comprehensive impact substation is located, including: Collect numerical weather forecast model data from multiple sources, integrate geographic elevation information and climate distribution information, and use the MOSS statistical forecast method to correct the forecast model data error based on the historical real-time meteorological data series and the numerical weather forecast results at that time to obtain a refined grid rainfall forecast product; Determine the location of the substation in the watershed, and use the DEM digital elevation model and hydrological confluence analysis algorithm to generate the substation's catchment area layer; GIS spatial analysis is used to overlay the catchment area layer and the refined grid rainfall forecast product to obtain the grid points within the catchment area, and the rainfall values ​​of the grid points within the catchment area are weighted averaged to obtain the regional hourly average rainfall value. The regional forecast rainfall values ​​for different periods of time of the substation are extracted based on the regional hourly average rainfall value.

2. The substation flood risk early warning method based on different impact types according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Determining the critical rainfall value for critical warning of heavy rain in each period of the substation according to the historical data of the area to be warned includes: Determine the substation impact type as a local rainstorm waterlogging substation, and obtain the preset rainstorm frequency; Obtain the maximum 24-hour rainfall contour map and the maximum 24-hour coefficient of variation contour map according to the area corresponding to the substation; Determine the maximum 1-hour, 6-hour or 24-hour rainfall value P1, P6 or P6 in the corresponding area according to the maximum 1-hour, 6-hour or 24-hour rainfall contour map and the maximum 1-hour, 6-hour or 24-hour coefficient of variation contour map. 24 and maximum 1-hour, 6-hour or 24-hour coefficient of variation CV 1. CV 6 or CV 24 ; According to P1 and CV 1 and the Pearson III curve modulus ratio coefficient value table obtained in advance to determine the corresponding modulus ratio coefficient KP 1. According to P6 and CV 6 and the Pearson III curve modulus ratio coefficient value table obtained in advance to determine the corresponding modulus ratio coefficient KP 6 According to P 24 and CV 24 The corresponding modulus ratio coefficient is determined by the modulus ratio coefficient value table of the Pearson III curve obtained in advance KP 24 , respectively according to KP 1. KP 6 and KP 24 And the rainstorm intensity formula calculates the point rainfall values ​​of 1 hour, 6 hours and 24 hours under the corresponding rainstorm frequency H 点1 , H 点6 and H 点24 ; The 1-hour surface rainfall is calculated based on the 1-hour, 6-hour and 24-hour point rainfall values ​​in the substation area and the corresponding point-surface rainfall conversion coefficients obtained in advance. H 面1 , 6-hour surface rainfall H 面6 and 24-hour surface rainfall H 面24 ; Based on 1-hour surface rainfall H 面1 , 6-hour surface rainfall H 面6 and 24-hour surface rainfall H 面24 Determine the critical rainfall value for critical warning in each period under the set rainstorm frequency.

3. The method for early warning of substation flood risk based on different impact types according to claim 2 is characterized in that: Also includes: If the actual rainfall at the substation exceeds the critical rainfall value in history but there is no corresponding flood risk, the critical rainfall value will be adjusted to the actual rainfall value this time.

4. The method for early warning of substation flood risk based on different impact types according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Determining the critical rainfall value for critical warning of heavy rain in each period of the substation according to the historical data of the area to be warned includes: Determine the substation impact type as a flash flood substation; Obtain the substation's critical flooding water level, safe operation water level, and water level of flooded power facilities; Measure or obtain the large section where the substation is located, and use the Manning formula and the corresponding relationship between the distance from the starting point of the large section and the elevation to calculate the cross-section water level-flow relationship curve; According to the water level-flow relationship curve, the corresponding characteristic flow is calculated using the characteristic water level; Obtain and calculate the catchment area of ​​the flash flood substation. Obtain the catchment area, main stream length, and main stream slope parameters of the area. Use the trial algorithm to calculate the critical rainfall value for the period corresponding to the characteristic flow, thereby calculating the critical rainfall corresponding to each characteristic critical water level.

5. The method for early warning of substation flood risk based on different impact types according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Determining the critical rainfall value for critical warning of heavy rain in each period of the substation according to the historical data of the area to be warned includes: Determined as a basin comprehensive impact substation; According to the historical water level of the river and the water level of the hydrological station, the characteristic water level of different risk levels of substation flooding is established. The characteristic water level refers to the elevation of the flooding risk different from the location of the substation; According to the characteristic water level of different risk levels of flooding in the current substation and the water level-flow relationship curve, the corresponding characteristic flow is inferred; According to the characteristic flow and real-time future forecast rainfall, the rainfall-runoff correlation method is used to determine the critical rainfall value for critical warning of substation rainstorms in each period.

6. A system based on the substation flood risk early warning method based on different impact types according to any one of claims 1 to 5, characterized in that: The first acquisition module is used to obtain the longitude and latitude, elevation, site layout map, surrounding geographic information map, river information, and historical flood information of the substation in the area to be warned; The type determination module is used to determine the substation impact type based on the longitude and latitude, elevation, site layout map, surrounding geographic information map, river information, and historical flood information of the substation in the area to be warned; A calculation module for performing rainfall extraction calculations based on the substation impact type; The second acquisition module is used to obtain the critical rainfall value for critical warning of heavy rain in each period of the substation determined in advance based on the historical data of the area to be warned; The early warning module is used to issue a rainstorm warning of the corresponding level when it is determined that the critical rainfall value of the critical warning of a certain period of rainstorm in the substation is exceeded according to the result of rainfall extraction calculation.

7. A computer-readable storage medium storing one or more programs, characterized in that: The one or more programs include instructions which, when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform any one of the methods according to claims 1 to 5 .

8. A computing device, characterized in that include, One or more processors, a memory, and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, and the one or more programs include instructions for executing any one of the methods according to claims 1 to 5.

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