Line tripping risk assessment method, device, equipment and medium

Abstract

The present invention discloses a line tripping risk assessment method, device, equipment and medium. Considering two conditions for the occurrence of a wildfire tripping accident of a transmission line, one is that the wildfire spreads to the bottom of the transmission line. Therefore, the wildfire spread factor is further calculated by calculating the distance and speed influence factors of the target tower and combining the precipitation coefficient and the vegetation coefficient. The second is that under the premise that condition one is met, the wildfire causes the air insulation of the conductor to the ground or the air insulation between phases to decrease until it cannot withstand the operating voltage of the line. Therefore, under the premise that the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0, the line flashover tripping factor of the target tower is calculated according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels. The line flashover tripping factor indicates the probability that the insulation performance of the air gap at the target tower is reduced to the point where it cannot withstand the operating pressure of the line. Finally, the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor are combined to calculate the tripping probability of the target tower at the preset next monitoring moment.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of disaster prevention and mitigation of power grids, and in particular to a line tripping risk assessment method, device, equipment and medium. Background Art

[0002] my country's energy distribution is extremely uneven. Energy centers are mainly concentrated in the west and southwest of my country, while load centers are concentrated in the east. This determines that my country must adopt long-distance, large-capacity transmission methods. With the rapid growth of the scale of transmission lines, the transmission line corridors need to cross a large area of ​​mountains and ridges. When encountering continuous dry weather, large-scale wildfire disasters are prone to break out. At the same time, due to the prosperity of fire-using customs such as burning wasteland and sacrificial offerings, large-scale chain tripping accidents are often caused by human-caused wildfire disasters. According to statistical data, from 2016 to 2021, there have been more than a hundred tripping accidents due to wildfires in the overhead transmission lines of the Southern Power Grid of 110kV and above, and the trend is increasing year by year. Therefore, how to assess the risk of line tripping caused by wildfires is of great significance to the safe and reliable operation of large power grids. Summary of the invention

[0003] Based on this, it is necessary to provide line tripping risk assessment methods, devices, equipment and media to solve the problem of difficulty in assessing the risk of line tripping caused by wildfires.

[0004] A line tripping risk assessment method, the method comprising:

[0005] At a preset current monitoring moment, the current coordinates of the current fire point are obtained, and the target tower distance between the current fire point and the target tower is determined according to the current coordinates; wherein the target tower is the tower closest to the current fire point among all the towers within the preset range of the current fire point;

[0006] Obtaining a speed influence factor between the current fire point and the target tower, and calculating a wildfire spreading speed according to the speed influence factor;

[0007] Obtaining the precipitation coefficient and vegetation coefficient between the current fire point and the target pole tower, and calculating the wildfire spread factor according to the target pole tower distance, the wildfire spread speed, the precipitation coefficient and the vegetation coefficient; wherein the wildfire spread factor is used to indicate the probability that the current fire point spreads to the target pole tower at the next preset monitoring moment;

[0008] On the premise that the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0, the line flashover tripping factor of the target tower is calculated according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels; wherein the line flashover tripping factor is used to indicate the probability that the insulation performance of the air gap at the target tower is reduced to the point where it cannot withstand the line operation pressure;

[0009] The tripping probability of the target tower at the next preset monitoring moment is calculated according to the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor.

[0010] In one embodiment, determining the target tower distance between the current fire point and the target tower according to the current coordinates includes:

[0011] In two-dimensional coordinates, the coordinates of the current fire point and the coordinates of all the poles are sorted based on a first dimension to obtain a first coordinate set, and the coordinates of the current fire point and the coordinates of all the poles are sorted based on a second dimension to obtain a second coordinate set; wherein the first dimension and the second dimension are perpendicular to each other;

[0012] Divide the coordinates of the current fire point and the coordinates of all towers into a first subset and a second subset; wherein, in a first dimension, all coordinates in the first subset are smaller than all coordinates in the second subset;

[0013] In the target subset, a first target point is determined by a recursive algorithm, and a first target distance between the current fire point and the first target point is calculated; wherein the target subset is the first subset or the second subset, the current fire point is located in the target subset, and the first target point is the point in the target subset that is closest to the current fire point;

[0014] A circle is constructed at the center point with the first target distance as the radius, and a second target point is determined within the intersection range of the circle and the non-target subset, and a second target distance between the current fire point and the second target point is calculated; wherein the coordinates of the center point are the median point of the first coordinate set and the median point of the second coordinate set, the non-target subset is the first subset or the second subset, and is different from the subset of the target subset, and the second target point is the point within the intersection range of the circle and the non-target subset that is closest to the current fire point;

[0015] The smaller value between the first target distance and the second target distance is used as the target tower distance.

[0016] In one embodiment, the formula for calculating the wildfire spread rate is:

[0017]

[0018] In the above formula, R is the speed of wildfire spread, R0, K s , K v and is the speed influence factor, where R0 is the initial spread speed of the current fire point, K s is the adjustment coefficient of combustibles between the current fire point and the target tower, Kv is the adjustment coefficient of the wind speed between the current fire point and the target tower, is the adjustment coefficient of the slope between the current fire point and the target tower.

[0019] In one embodiment, the formula for calculating the wildfire spread factor is:

[0020]

[0021] In the above formula, D F is the wildfire spread factor, P B is the vegetation coefficient, P R is the precipitation coefficient, L is the distance to the target tower, V is the speed of wildfire spread, and Δt is the time interval between two monitoring moments.

[0022] In one embodiment, the formula for calculating the line flashover tripping factor of the target tower according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels is:

[0023]

[0024]

[0025] U 99 =0.756U g (U v )

[0026] In the above formula, P V is the line flashover tripping factor; P g is the phase-to-ground tripping probability; P v is the phase-to-phase tripping probability; () indicates or; U is the voltage level of the transmission line; U99 is the 99% withstand breakdown voltage; U g is the phase-to-ground air gap withstand voltage; U v It is the air gap withstand voltage between phases.

[0027] In one embodiment, the method further comprises:

[0028] The phase-to-ground air gap withstand voltage and the phase-to-phase air gap withstand voltage are calculated based on the breakdown voltage of the flame zone, the breakdown voltage of the ion zone and the breakdown voltage of the smoke zone.

[0029] In one embodiment, the calculating the tripping probability of the target tower at the preset next monitoring moment according to the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor includes:

[0030] The product of the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor is used as the tripping probability of the target tower at the next preset monitoring moment.

[0031] A line tripping risk assessment device, comprising:

[0032] A wildfire spread factor calculation module is used to obtain the current coordinates of the current fire point at a preset current monitoring moment, and determine the target tower distance between the current fire point and the target tower according to the current coordinates; wherein the target tower is the tower closest to the current fire point among all towers within the preset range of the current fire point; obtain the speed influence factor between the current fire point and the target tower, and calculate the wildfire spread speed according to the speed influence factor; obtain the precipitation coefficient and vegetation coefficient between the current fire point and the target tower, and calculate the wildfire spread factor according to the target tower distance, the wildfire spread speed, the precipitation coefficient and the vegetation coefficient; wherein the wildfire spread factor is used to indicate the probability that the current fire point will spread to the target tower at the preset next monitoring moment;

[0033] A line flashover tripping factor calculation module is used to calculate the line flashover tripping factor of the target tower according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels, under the premise that the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0; wherein the line flashover tripping factor is used to indicate the probability that the insulation performance of the air gap at the target tower is reduced to the point where it cannot withstand the line operation pressure;

[0034] The tripping probability calculation module is used to calculate the tripping probability of the target tower at the next preset monitoring moment according to the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor.

[0035] A computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the processor executes the steps of the above-mentioned line tripping risk assessment method.

[0036] A line tripping risk assessment device comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor executes the steps of the line tripping risk assessment method.

[0037] The present invention provides a line tripping risk assessment method, device, equipment and medium. The present invention takes into account two conditions for the occurrence of a wildfire tripping accident on a transmission line. The first condition is that the wildfire spreads to the bottom of the transmission line. Therefore, by calculating the distance and speed influence factors of the target tower, and combining the precipitation coefficient and the vegetation coefficient to further calculate the wildfire spread factor, the wildfire spread factor indicates the probability that the current fire point spreads to the target tower at the preset next monitoring moment. The second condition is that under the premise that condition one is met, the wildfire causes the air insulation of the conductor to the ground or the air insulation between phases to decrease until it cannot withstand the operating voltage of the line. Therefore, under the premise that the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0, the line flashover tripping factor of the target tower is calculated according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels. The line flashover tripping factor indicates the probability that the insulation performance of the air gap at the target tower is reduced to the point where it cannot withstand the operating pressure of the line. Finally, the comprehensive wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor can calculate the tripping probability of the target tower at the preset next monitoring moment in real time. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0038] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0039] in:

[0040] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a process flow of a line tripping risk assessment method in one embodiment;

[0041] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a process flow of a target tower distance in one embodiment;

[0042] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the search target tower distance;

[0043] Figure 4 Schematic diagram of the phase-to-ground gap distribution when the flame is not bridged

[0044] Figure 5 Schematic diagram of the distribution of the interphase gap area when the flame is not bridged;

[0045] Figure 6 2 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a line tripping risk assessment device in one embodiment;

[0046] Figure 7 It is a structural block diagram of a line tripping risk assessment device in one embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0047] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0048] like Figure 1 As shown, Figure 1 : is a flow chart of a line tripping risk assessment method in one embodiment. The steps provided by the line tripping risk assessment method in this embodiment include:

[0049] s101, at a preset current monitoring time, obtaining the current coordinates of the current fire point, and determining the target tower distance between the current fire point and the target tower according to the current coordinates.

[0050] Specifically, this embodiment can use the remote sensing data of the Himawari-8 satellite to observe the current coordinates of the current fire point at a high frequency, for example, setting the time interval Δt=10min between each two monitoring moments. Here, the determined target tower is the tower closest to the current fire point among all the towers within the preset range of the current fire point.

[0051] Optional, such as Figure 2 As shown, the target tower distance between the current fire point and the target tower is determined according to the current coordinates through the following steps:

[0052] s1011, in two-dimensional coordinates, sort the coordinates of the current fire point and the coordinates of all towers based on the first dimension to obtain a first coordinate set, and sort the coordinates of the current fire point and the coordinates of all towers based on the second dimension to obtain a second coordinate set.

[0053] See also Figure 3 , set the first dimension x and the second dimension y to be perpendicular to each other. Here, there are 10 points in total. The first coordinate set [x1, x2…x 10 ], and similarly, the second coordinate set [y1, y2…y 10 ].

[0054] s1012, dividing the coordinates of the current fire point and the coordinates of all towers into a first subset and a second subset.

[0055] In the first dimension, all coordinates in the first subset are smaller than all coordinates in the second subset. Figure 3As shown, the total set Z(S+f∈Z) of fire points and towers is divided into a first subset R and a second subset W, and all coordinates in the first subset R are smaller than all coordinates in the second subset W.

[0056] s1013, within the target subset, determine the first target point through a recursive algorithm, and calculate the first target distance between the current fire point and the first target point.

[0057] The target subset is the first subset or the second subset, the current fire point is located in the target subset, and the first target point is the point in the target subset that is closest to the current fire point.

[0058] like Figure 3 As shown, the current fire point f(x, y) is located in the first subset R, so the first subset R is the target subset. In the first subset R, the distances are calculated and sorted in sequence using the Pythagorean theorem to determine the first target point r(x, y), and the first target distance d1(f, r) is obtained.

[0059] s1014, construct a circle at the center point with the first target distance as the radius, determine the second target point within the intersection range of the circle and the non-target subset, and calculate the second target distance between the current fire point and the second target point.

[0060] Among them, the coordinates of the center point are the median point of the first coordinate set and the median point of the second coordinate set, the non-target subset is the first subset or the second subset, and is a subset different from the target subset, and the second target point is the point closest to the current fire point within the intersection range of the circle and the non-target subset.

[0061] like Figure 3 As shown, the coordinates of the center point in the first dimension are x=mid, that is, [x1, x2…x 10 ], and the same is true for the coordinate y of the center point in the second dimension, which is [y1,y2…y 10 ] is the median point. Since the first subset R is the target subset, the second subset W is the non-target subset. The intersection range of the circle and the non-target subset is Figure 3 The part of the oblique line area, in which w(x, y) is the second target point. The second target distance d2(f, w) between the current fire point and the second target point can be obtained through calculation.

[0062] s1015, taking the smaller value between the first target distance and the second target distance as the target tower distance.

[0063] That is, min{d1,d2} is taken as the target tower distance.

[0064] Based on the above specific embodiments, the distance to the target tower can be calculated quickly and effectively, thereby improving the overall computing efficiency.

[0065] s102, obtain the speed influence factor between the current fire point and the target tower, and calculate the wildfire spread speed based on the speed influence factor.

[0066] Optionally, the formula for calculating the wildfire spread rate is:

[0067]

[0068] In the above formula, R is the speed of wildfire spread, R0, K s , K v and is the speed influencing factor, where R0 is the initial spreading speed of the current fire point, K s K is the adjustment coefficient of combustibles between the current fire point and the target tower, v is the adjustment coefficient of the wind speed between the current fire point and the target tower, It is the adjustment coefficient of the slope between the current fire point and the target tower.

[0069] Furthermore, the initial spread speed is set as the spread speed of the wildfire when it occurs on a flat surface without wind. In this case, the air temperature and humidity have a greater impact on it, so the calculation expression of the initial spread speed is:

[0070] R0=0.03T+0.01H d -0.3

[0071] In the above formula, H d is the daily minimum humidity; T is the atmospheric temperature.

[0072] Furthermore, considering that different vegetation has different effects on the spread speed of wildfires, the combustible adjustment coefficient Ks is determined by the type of combustibles under the transmission line. When the combustible type is weeds or fallen leaves, a surface fire with a slower spread speed is likely to occur, and Ks = 0.5 at this time; when the combustible type is trees, a crown fire with a faster spread speed is likely to occur, and Ks = 1 at this time.

[0073] Furthermore, considering that changes in wind speed and direction will affect the speed of wildfire spread, the calculation expression of the wind speed adjustment coefficient Kv is:

[0074] K v =e 0.178vcosθ

[0075] In the above formula, v is the wind speed; θ is the angle between the line connecting the fire point and the tower and the wind speed direction.

[0076] Furthermore, considering that the slope direction and slope size will also affect the spread speed of wildfires, uphill will accelerate the spread of wildfires, and downhill will slow down the spread of wildfires, so the calculation expression of the slope adjustment coefficient Kφ is:

[0077]

[0078] In the above formula, g is the slope direction sign; when the slope direction is uphill, g = 0, when the slope direction is downhill, g = 1; φ is the slope angle.

[0079] s103, obtain the precipitation coefficient and vegetation coefficient between the current fire point and the target pole tower, and calculate the wildfire spread factor according to the target pole tower distance, wildfire spread speed, precipitation coefficient and vegetation coefficient.

[0080] Among them, the wildfire spread factor is used to indicate the probability of the current fire point spreading to the target tower at the next preset monitoring moment.

[0081] Optionally, the formula for calculating the wildfire spread factor is:

[0082]

[0083] In the above formula, D F is the wildfire spread factor, P B is the vegetation coefficient, P R is the precipitation coefficient, L is the distance to the target tower, V is the speed of wildfire spread, and Δt is the time interval between two monitoring moments.

[0084] Furthermore, the precipitation coefficient P R The correction formula is as follows:

[0085]

[0086] In the above formula, Rp is the rainfall in the past hour; Rf is the rainfall in the next hour.

[0087] Furthermore, PB is the correction factor for surface vegetation. Whether the fire can spread to the bottom of the transmission line depends on whether there are only combustibles during the spread. If there are only combustibles such as trees or grasslands during the spread, PB = 1. If there are non-combustible areas such as deserts and rivers, PB = 0.

[0088] s104, under the premise that the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0, the line flashover tripping factor of the target tower is calculated according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels.

[0089] This step is only executed when the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0. When the wildfire spread factor is equal to 0, the wildfire will not be able to spread to the tower, and no subsequent calculation is required.

[0090] The line flashover trip factor here is used to indicate the probability that the insulation performance of the air gap at the target tower is reduced to the point where it cannot withstand the line operation pressure. To calculate the line flashover trip factor, the line is divided into three gaps: flame zone, ion zone and smoke zone.

[0091] Among them, the breakdown voltage of the flame zone can be expressed as:

[0092]

[0093] H1=H f

[0094] In the above formula, E0 is the power frequency breakdown field strength when the gap distance is H (H is the line height) under standard atmospheric conditions. a is the ambient temperature; T f is the flame zone temperature; zd is the vegetation height; H1 is the flame zone gap distance.

[0095] The relationship between the breakdown voltage of the ion zone and the vegetation type parameters is as follows:

[0096]

[0097] H2=0.1H f

[0098] In the above formula, H2 is the gap distance of the ion zone; C is the vegetation correction factor of the ion zone breakdown field strength. The values ​​of C under different vegetation are shown in Table 1.

[0099] Table 1:

[0100] Vegetation Type Coniferous forest Broadleaf forest Mixed coniferous and broad-leaved forest shrub Thatch C 4 3 3.5 4 2

[0101] The breakdown voltage of the smoke region can be expressed as:

[0102] K p =1 / (14Q+1)

[0103] U s =K p E0H3

[0104] H3=H-H1-H2-z d

[0105] In the above formula, Kp is the smoke correction coefficient, Q is the smoke concentration, Q=0% means no smoke, Q=100% means full of smoke; H3 is the gap distance of the smoke zone.

[0106] To calculate the line flashover trip factor, first calculate the phase-to-ground air gap withstand voltage U according to the breakdown voltage of the flame zone, the breakdown voltage of the ion zone and the breakdown voltage of the smoke zone. g The air gap withstand voltage U between the phases v .

[0107] When calculating the phase-to-ground air gap withstand voltage Ug, if the flame is lower than the conductor height when the vegetation is burning, the gap below the transmission line is composed of three parts: the smoke zone, the ion zone and the flame zone, or the ion zone and the flame zone. If the flame is higher than the conductor height when the vegetation is burning, the gap below the transmission line is only composed of the flame zone. Therefore, the phase-to-ground air gap withstand voltage Ug is:

[0108] It consists of flame zone, ion zone and smoke zone:

[0109]

[0110]

[0111] It is composed of flame zone and ion zone:

[0112]

[0113] Consists of flame zone only:

[0114]

[0115] In calculating the phase-to-phase air gap withstand voltage U v When the flame of vegetation is lower than the conductor height, the phase gap of the transmission line is composed of the smoke zone, the ion zone or the two zones. When the flame of vegetation is higher than the conductor height, the phase gap of the transmission line is only composed of the flame zone. Therefore, the phase-to-phase air gap withstand voltage Uv is:

[0116] It is composed of ion area and smoke area:

[0117]

[0118] Consists of ionic regions only:

[0119]

[0120] Only the smoke and dust area consists of:

[0121] U v =U s =K p E0H l

[0122] Consists of flame zone only:

[0123]

[0124] Optionally, the formula for calculating the line flashover tripping factor of the target tower according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels is:

[0125]

[0126]

[0127] U 99 =0.756U g (U v )

[0128] In the above formula, P V is the line flashover tripping factor; P g is the phase-to-ground tripping probability; P v is the phase-to-phase tripping probability; () indicates or; U is the voltage level of the transmission line; U99 is the 99% withstand breakdown voltage; U g is the phase-to-ground air gap withstand voltage; U v It is the air gap withstand voltage between phases.

[0129] s105, calculate the tripping probability of the target tower at the preset next monitoring time according to the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor.

[0130] Optionally, the product of the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor is used as the tripping probability of the target tower at the next preset monitoring time, that is, the tripping probability of the target tower at the next preset monitoring time is expressed as:

[0131] P=D F P V

[0132] In the above formula, D F is the wildfire spread factor; P V is the line flashover tripping factor.

[0133] It can be seen that the above-mentioned line tripping risk assessment method takes into account two conditions for the occurrence of wildfire tripping accidents on transmission lines. The first is that the wildfire spreads to the bottom of the transmission line. Therefore, by calculating the distance and speed influence factors of the target tower, and combining the precipitation coefficient and the vegetation coefficient to further calculate the wildfire spread factor, the wildfire spread factor indicates the probability of the current fire point spreading to the target tower at the preset next monitoring time. The second is that under the premise that condition one is met, the wildfire causes the air insulation of the conductor to the ground or the air insulation between phases to decrease until it cannot withstand the operating voltage of the line. Therefore, under the premise that the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0, the line flashover trip factor of the target tower is calculated according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels. The line flashover trip factor indicates the probability that the insulation performance of the air gap at the target tower is reduced to the point where it cannot withstand the operating pressure of the line. Finally, the comprehensive wildfire spread factor and the line flashover trip factor can calculate the trip probability of the target tower at the preset next monitoring time in real time.

[0134] To facilitate understanding of the scheme, the following is a specific example to further illustrate the calculation method of the probability of wildfires on power transmission lines:

[0135] Example 1: On May 9, 2022, the Himawari-8 satellite detected a forest fire at 241m on the south side of a 110kV transmission line. The daily minimum humidity in the area is 12.6%, the atmospheric temperature is 28°C, the vegetation type is pine, the slope is 55°, the wildfire spread mode is upward fire, the wind direction is north wind, and the wind speed is 6.4m / s. The calculated wildfire spread speed is 85m / s. In addition, the rainfall in the area in the past hour and the next hour is 0mm, and there is no desert or river during the spread of the wildfire. Therefore, the wildfire will spread to the bottom of the transmission line, and the wildfire spread factor DF=1. The line height is 18m, the phase-to-phase distance is 4m, the vegetation height under the line is 13m, and the flame height is 5.6m. At this time, the phase-to-ground gap is only composed of the flame area. Figure 4 As shown, the line flashover trip factor PV = 100% is obtained through the flame zone breakdown voltage calculation formula. Based on the calculation results of each factor, the line wildfire trip probability P = 100% is calculated. In fact, a wildfire tripping accident occurred on the line, and the tripping type was phase-to-ground tripping, which is consistent with the results calculated by this model.

[0136] Example 2: On May 10, 2022, the Himawari-8 satellite detected a forest fire at 867m west of a 220kV transmission line. The daily minimum humidity in the area is 10%, the atmospheric temperature is 32°C, the vegetation type is pine, the slope is 60°, the wildfire spread mode is upward fire, the wind direction is north wind, and the wind speed is 10m / s. The calculated wildfire spread speed is 30m / s. In addition, the rainfall in the area in the past hour and the next hour is 0mm, and there is no desert or river during the spread of the wildfire. Therefore, the wildfire will spread to the bottom of the transmission line, and the wildfire spread factor DF=1. The line height is 26m, the phase distance is 5.7m, the vegetation height under the line is 5m, and the flame height is 8.35m. At this time, the phase gap is only composed of smoke and dust areas. Figure 5 As shown, the line flashover trip factor PV = 100% is obtained through the calculation formula of the breakdown voltage in the smoke area. Based on the calculation results of each factor, the probability of the line tripping due to wildfire P = 100% is calculated. In fact, a wildfire tripping accident occurred on the line, and the tripping type was phase-to-phase tripping, which is consistent with the results calculated by this model.

[0137] It can be seen that this line tripping risk assessment method has extremely high assessment accuracy.

[0138] In one embodiment, Figure 6 As shown, a line tripping risk assessment device is proposed, the device comprising:

[0139] The wildfire spread factor calculation module 601 is used to obtain the current coordinates of the current fire point at the preset current monitoring time, and determine the target pole tower distance between the current fire point and the target pole tower according to the current coordinates; wherein the target pole tower is the pole tower closest to the current fire point among all the pole towers within the preset range of the current fire point; obtain the speed influence factor between the current fire point and the target pole tower, and calculate the wildfire spread speed according to the speed influence factor; obtain the precipitation coefficient and vegetation coefficient between the current fire point and the target pole tower, and calculate the wildfire spread factor according to the target pole tower distance, the wildfire spread speed, the precipitation coefficient and the vegetation coefficient; wherein the wildfire spread factor is used to indicate the probability of the current fire point spreading to the target pole tower at the preset next monitoring time;

[0140] The line flashover tripping factor calculation module 602 is used to calculate the line flashover tripping factor of the target tower according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels, provided that the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0; wherein the line flashover tripping factor is used to indicate the probability that the insulation performance of the air gap at the target tower is reduced to the point where it cannot withstand the line operation pressure;

[0141] The trip probability calculation module 603 is used to calculate the trip probability of the target tower at the next preset monitoring time according to the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover trip factor.

[0142] Figure 7 FIG. 2 shows an internal structure diagram of a line trip risk assessment device in one embodiment. Figure 7 As shown, the line tripping risk assessment device includes a processor, a memory and a network interface connected via a system bus. Among them, the memory includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium of the line tripping risk assessment device stores an operating system and may also store a computer program. When the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor can implement the line tripping risk assessment method. The internal memory may also store a computer program. When the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor can execute the line tripping risk assessment method. Those skilled in the art can understand that Figure 7 The structure shown in the figure is only a block diagram of a partial structure related to the scheme of the present application, and does not constitute a limitation on the line tripping risk assessment device to which the scheme of the present application is applied. The specific line tripping risk assessment device may include more or fewer components than those shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components.

[0143] A line tripping risk assessment device comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the following steps when executing the computer program: at a preset current monitoring moment, obtaining the current coordinates of a current fire point, determining the target pole tower distance between the current fire point and the target pole tower according to the current coordinates; obtaining the speed influence factor between the current fire point and the target pole tower, and calculating the wildfire spread speed according to the speed influence factor; obtaining the precipitation coefficient and the vegetation coefficient between the current fire point and the target pole tower, and calculating the wildfire spread factor according to the target pole tower distance, the wildfire spread speed, the precipitation coefficient and the vegetation coefficient; under the premise that the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0, calculating the line flashover tripping factor of the target pole tower according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities under different voltage levels; and calculating the tripping probability of the target pole tower at the preset next monitoring moment according to the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor.

[0144] A computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, which implements the following steps when executed by a processor: at a preset current monitoring moment, obtain the current coordinates of a current fire point, determine the target pole tower distance between the current fire point and the target pole tower according to the current coordinates; obtain the speed influence factor between the current fire point and the target pole tower, and calculate the wildfire spread speed according to the speed influence factor; obtain the precipitation coefficient and vegetation coefficient between the current fire point and the target pole tower, and calculate the wildfire spread factor according to the target pole tower distance, the wildfire spread speed, the precipitation coefficient and the vegetation coefficient; under the premise that the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0, calculate the line flashover tripping factor of the target pole tower according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities under different voltage levels; calculate the tripping probability of the target pole tower at the preset next monitoring moment according to the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor.

[0145] It should be noted that the above-mentioned line tripping risk assessment method, device, equipment and computer-readable storage medium belong to a general inventive concept, and the contents in the embodiments of the line tripping risk assessment method, device, equipment and computer-readable storage medium are applicable to each other.

[0146] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a computer program, and the program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. When the program is executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the above-mentioned methods. Among them, any reference to memory, storage, database or other media used in the embodiments provided in this application can include non-volatile and / or volatile memory. Non-volatile memory may include read-only memory (ROM), programmable ROM (PROM), electrically programmable ROM (EPROM), electrically erasable programmable ROM (EEPROM) or flash memory. Volatile memory may include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory. As an illustration and not limitation, RAM is available in many forms, such as static RAM (SRAM), dynamic RAM (DRAM), synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), double data rate SDRAM (DDRSDRAM), enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), synchronous link (Synchlink) DRAM (SLDRAM), memory bus (Rambus) direct RAM (RDRAM), direct memory bus dynamic RAM (DRDRAM), and memory bus dynamic RAM (RDRAM).

[0147] The technical features of the above embodiments may be arbitrarily combined. To make the description concise, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this specification.

[0148] The above embodiments only express several implementation methods of the present application, and the descriptions thereof are relatively specific and detailed, but they cannot be understood as limiting the scope of the present application. It should be pointed out that, for a person of ordinary skill in the art, several modifications and improvements can be made without departing from the concept of the present application, and these all belong to the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the attached claims.

Claims

1. A line tripping risk assessment method, characterized in that: The method comprises: At a preset current monitoring moment, the current coordinates of the current fire point are obtained, and the target tower distance between the current fire point and the target tower is determined according to the current coordinates; wherein the target tower is the tower closest to the current fire point among all the towers within the preset range of the current fire point; Obtaining a speed influence factor between the current fire point and the target tower, and calculating a wildfire spreading speed according to the speed influence factor; Obtaining the precipitation coefficient and vegetation coefficient between the current fire point and the target pole tower, and calculating the wildfire spread factor according to the target pole tower distance, the wildfire spread speed, the precipitation coefficient and the vegetation coefficient; wherein the wildfire spread factor is used to indicate the probability that the current fire point spreads to the target pole tower at the next preset monitoring moment; On the premise that the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0, the line flashover tripping factor of the target tower is calculated according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels; wherein the line flashover tripping factor is used to indicate the probability that the insulation performance of the air gap at the target tower is reduced to the point where it cannot withstand the line operation pressure; The tripping probability of the target tower at the next preset monitoring moment is calculated according to the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step of determining the target pole tower distance between the current fire point and the target pole tower according to the current coordinates includes: In two-dimensional coordinates, the coordinates of the current fire point and the coordinates of all the poles are sorted based on a first dimension to obtain a first coordinate set, and the coordinates of the current fire point and the coordinates of all the poles are sorted based on a second dimension to obtain a second coordinate set; wherein the first dimension and the second dimension are perpendicular to each other; Divide the coordinates of the current fire point and the coordinates of all towers into a first subset and a second subset; wherein, in a first dimension, all coordinates in the first subset are smaller than all coordinates in the second subset; In the target subset, a first target point is determined by a recursive algorithm, and a first target distance between the current fire point and the first target point is calculated; wherein the target subset is the first subset or the second subset, the current fire point is located in the target subset, and the first target point is the point in the target subset that is closest to the current fire point; A circle is constructed at the center point with the first target distance as the radius, and a second target point is determined within the intersection range of the circle and the non-target subset, and a second target distance between the current fire point and the second target point is calculated; wherein the coordinates of the center point are the median point of the first coordinate set and the median point of the second coordinate set, the non-target subset is the first subset or the second subset, and is different from the subset of the target subset, and the second target point is the point within the intersection range of the circle and the non-target subset that is closest to the current fire point; The smaller value between the first target distance and the second target distance is used as the target tower distance.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The formula for calculating the speed of wildfire spread is: In the above formula, R is the speed of wildfire spread, R0, K s , K v and is the speed influence factor, where R0 is the initial spread speed of the current fire point, K s is the adjustment coefficient of combustibles between the current fire point and the target tower, K v is the adjustment coefficient of the wind speed between the current fire point and the target tower, is the adjustment coefficient of the slope between the current fire point and the target tower.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The formula for calculating the wildfire spread factor is: In the above formula, D F is the wildfire spread factor, P B is the vegetation coefficient, P R is the precipitation coefficient, L is the distance to the target tower, V is the speed of wildfire spread, and Δt is the time interval between two monitoring moments.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The formula for calculating the line flashover tripping factor of the target tower according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels is: YOU 99 =0.756U g (YOU v ) In the above formula, P V is the line flashover tripping factor; P g is the phase-to-ground tripping probability; P v is the phase-to-phase tripping probability; () indicates or; U is the voltage level of the transmission line; U99 is the 99% withstand breakdown voltage; U g is the phase-to-ground air gap withstand voltage; U v It is the air gap withstand voltage between phases.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The method further comprises: The phase-to-ground air gap withstand voltage and the phase-to-phase air gap withstand voltage are calculated based on the breakdown voltage of the flame zone, the breakdown voltage of the ion zone and the breakdown voltage of the smoke zone.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The calculating the tripping probability of the target tower at the preset next monitoring moment according to the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor includes: The product of the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor is used as the tripping probability of the target tower at the next preset monitoring moment.

8. A line tripping risk assessment device, characterized in that: The device comprises: A wildfire spread factor calculation module is used to obtain the current coordinates of the current fire point at a preset current monitoring moment, and determine the target tower distance between the current fire point and the target tower according to the current coordinates; wherein the target tower is the tower closest to the current fire point among all towers within the preset range of the current fire point; obtain the speed influence factor between the current fire point and the target tower, and calculate the wildfire spread speed according to the speed influence factor; obtain the precipitation coefficient and vegetation coefficient between the current fire point and the target tower, and calculate the wildfire spread factor according to the target tower distance, the wildfire spread speed, the precipitation coefficient and the vegetation coefficient; wherein the wildfire spread factor is used to indicate the probability that the current fire point will spread to the target tower at the preset next monitoring moment; A line flashover tripping factor calculation module is used to calculate the line flashover tripping factor of the target tower according to the phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase tripping probabilities at different voltage levels, under the premise that the wildfire spread factor is greater than 0; wherein the line flashover tripping factor is used to indicate the probability that the insulation performance of the air gap at the target tower is reduced to the point where it cannot withstand the line operation pressure; The tripping probability calculation module is used to calculate the tripping probability of the target tower at the next preset monitoring moment according to the wildfire spread factor and the line flashover tripping factor.

9. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the processor is caused to perform the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A line trip risk assessment device, comprising a memory and a processor, characterized in that: The memory stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor is caused to perform the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

Images