A forecasting and analysis method for power grid operation indicators

Abstract

The present invention relates to the field of forecasting and analysis technology, and in particular to a forecasting and analysis method for power grid operating indicators. The present invention solves the problem that a power grid company is unable to correctly interpret phased operating indicators according to changes in project progress. To solve the above problem, the present invention provides a forecasting and analysis method, including: obtaining a power sales indicator of a power grid company, obtaining new projects and completed projects in the current year, recording the start time of the new project as a new node, and recording the end time of the completed project as a completed node; dividing the current year into multiple accounting cycles according to the same time interval, and calculating the periodic power sales corresponding to each accounting cycle according to the new nodes and the completed nodes; when the current power sales are less than the periodic power sales, obtaining the project progress of the new projects and the completed projects; when the current power sales are greater than or equal to the periodic power sales, the power sales plan of the power grid company does not need to be changed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of forecasting and analysis, and in particular to a forecasting and analysis method for power grid operation indicators. Background Art

[0002] As the management of power grid companies gradually develops in the direction of standardization and refinement, the operating indicators provided each year have become clearer. Electricity sales are one of the data that can directly reflect the operating conditions of power grid companies. Electricity sales are mainly composed of residential electricity consumption and industrial electricity consumption. For industrial electricity consumption, power grid companies also have a large number of projects to complete every year. When power grid companies formulate annual electricity sales indicators, they estimate the start time and completion time of the project based on the expected time. However, during the construction process, the progress of the project is often different from the expected progress. Although the power grid company can understand the progress of each project in real time, it will not revise the phased operating indicators according to changes in project progress, resulting in the power grid company being misled by the phased operating indicators, affecting the subsequent completion plan for the electricity sales indicators. Summary of the invention

[0003] The problem solved by the present invention is that the power grid company is unable to correctly interpret the phased operating indicators according to the changes in the project progress.

[0004] To solve the above problems, an embodiment of the present invention provides a forecasting and analysis method for power grid operating indicators, the analysis method comprising: establishing an operating management platform, obtaining the power sales indicators that the power grid company needs to complete in the current year, and recording them as target power sales; obtaining new projects and completed projects in the current year, recording the start time of the new projects as the new nodes, and recording the end time of the completed projects as the completed nodes; dividing the current year into multiple accounting cycles according to the same time interval, and calculating the periodic power sales corresponding to each accounting cycle according to the new nodes and the completed nodes; obtaining the current power sales of the current year in each accounting cycle, and comparing the current power sales with the periodic power sales; when the current power sales are less than the periodic power sales, When measuring, obtain the project progress of the newly added projects and the completed projects; filter out the newly added projects whose start time is different from the newly added node, record them as the first fluctuating projects, filter out the completed projects whose end time is different from the completed node, record them as the second fluctuating projects; calculate the fluctuating electricity sales within the accounting period according to the first fluctuating projects and the second fluctuating projects, correct the current electricity sales according to the fluctuating electricity sales, and obtain the expected electricity sales; judge whether the target electricity sales can be completed within the current year according to the expected electricity sales; if so, the power sales plan of the power grid company does not need to be changed; if not, adjust the power sales plan according to the expected electricity sales and the target electricity sales; when the current electricity sales is greater than or equal to the periodic electricity sales, the power sales plan of the power grid company does not need to be changed.

[0005] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effects achieved by adopting this technical solution are as follows: the setting of the business management platform is convenient for statistics of data on business indicators of the power grid company, the acquisition of new nodes and completion nodes enables the power grid company to count the electricity consumption of the projects it is responsible for, the calculation of periodic power sales can obtain the estimated power consumption of each engineering project, and the target power sales formulated based on the estimated power consumption, the acquisition of current power sales can obtain the actual business situation of the power grid company in each accounting cycle, the screening of the first fluctuation project and the second fluctuation project can obtain the time changes of the actual execution of the project in the current year, the calculation of the estimated power sales can obtain the impact of the time changes of the project on the power sales in the accounting cycle, and obtain power sales that are more in line with the actual business situation, so as to avoid the power grid company being misled by the phased business indicators and formulating unreasonable plans for the subsequent work of the current year.

[0006] In one embodiment of the present invention, the current year is divided into multiple accounting cycles according to the same time intervals, and the periodic electricity sales corresponding to each accounting cycle is calculated according to the newly added nodes and the completed nodes, specifically including: predicting the first working days of the newly added projects in each accounting cycle, and the first electricity consumption corresponding to each first working day; predicting the second working days of the completed projects in each accounting cycle, and the second electricity consumption corresponding to each second working day; obtaining the proportion of engineering electricity consumption in each accounting cycle according to the first electricity consumption and the second electricity consumption; obtaining the historical cycle corresponding to each accounting cycle and the historical electricity sales for each historical cycle from the operation and management platform, and calculating the periodic electricity sales for each accounting cycle according to the historical electricity sales and the proportion of engineering electricity consumption.

[0007] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effects achieved by adopting this technical solution are as follows: the calculation of the first power consumption and the second power consumption can obtain the estimated power consumption of the project in each accounting period, and the calculation of the proportion of project power consumption can set a reasonable periodic power sales amount according to the project power consumption. The acquisition of historical power sales can make the periodic power sales amount more in line with the power grid company's operating conditions over the years.

[0008] In one embodiment of the present invention, the historical period corresponding to each accounting period and the historical electricity sales volume of each historical period are obtained from the operation and management platform, and the periodic electricity sales volume of each accounting period is calculated based on the historical electricity sales volume and the proportion of engineering power consumption, specifically including: calculating the historical proportion of each historical period based on the historical electricity sales volume, correcting the historical proportion based on the proportion of engineering power consumption to obtain the predicted proportion; and calculating the periodic electricity sales volume of each accounting period based on the predicted proportion and the target electricity sales volume.

[0009] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: by obtaining historical electricity sales, the power consumption proportion corresponding to the accounting period of the power grid company in previous years can be obtained, and then combined with the engineering power consumption proportion of the current year, the predicted proportion that conforms to the power grid company's own operating conditions can be obtained, so that the power grid company's periodic indicators are more accurate, and the periodic electricity sales can more intuitively reflect the power grid company's operating conditions in the current year, which is convenient for timely adjustments.

[0010] In one embodiment of the present invention, the historical proportion of each historical period is calculated according to the historical electricity sales volume, and the historical proportion is corrected according to the engineering power consumption proportion to obtain the predicted proportion, which specifically includes: screening the historical periods to obtain the electricity sales volume of non-engineering projects in the historical periods, which is recorded as the adjusted electricity volume; judging the electricity volume change trend of the accounting period according to the adjusted electricity volume of previous years, and predicting the electricity sales change in each accounting period according to the electricity sales change trend; correcting the historical proportion according to the electricity sales change to obtain the changed proportion, and correcting the changed proportion according to the engineering power consumption proportion to obtain the predicted proportion.

[0011] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: by screening the historical periods, the electricity consumption of non-engineering projects of the power grid company in the same accounting period over the years can be obtained; the comparison of the same accounting periods can better reflect the changing trend of the power grid company's electricity sales over the years in the same accounting period, making the current year's indicator forecast more accurate and the prediction of the power grid company's operating indicators more convenient.

[0012] In one embodiment of the present invention, the electricity quantity change trend of the accounting period is determined according to the adjusted electricity quantity of previous years, and the change in electricity sales in each accounting period is predicted according to the electricity quantity change trend, specifically including: when the electricity quantity change trend is an upward trend, the adjusted electricity quantity corresponding to the historical period that meets the upward trend is selected to calculate the load change coefficient, and the change in electricity sales is predicted according to the load change coefficient; when the electricity quantity change trend is a downward trend, the adjusted electricity quantity corresponding to the most recent two historical periods is selected to calculate the load change coefficient, and the change in electricity sales is predicted according to the load change coefficient; when the electricity quantity change trend is a fluctuating trend, a target number of adjusted electricity quantities are selected to calculate the electricity quantity fluctuation rate of the adjusted electricity quantity, the load change coefficient is calculated according to the electricity quantity fluctuation rate, and the change in electricity sales is predicted according to the load change coefficient.

[0013] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: the electricity quantity change pattern of the power grid company in each accounting period over the years is obtained through the adjustment of electricity quantity over the years, and the load change coefficient of the power grid company is obtained through the change pattern, so that the load change coefficient is more consistent with the power sales situation of the power grid company, and the power sales change amount is obtained by calculating the load change coefficient, so that the power sales change amount is more consistent with the power sales situation of the power grid company, and the prediction of the power sales change amount is more accurate.

[0014] In one embodiment of the present invention, the fluctuating electricity sales within the accounting period is calculated according to the first fluctuating item and the second fluctuating item, and the current electricity sales are corrected according to the fluctuating electricity sales to obtain the expected electricity sales, specifically including: the start time of the first fluctuating item is recorded as the first fluctuating node, and the end node of the second fluctuating item is recorded as the second fluctuating node; the time length between the first fluctuating node and the newly added node is calculated, recorded as the first time difference, and the first impact duration of the newly added item in the current year is calculated according to the first time difference; the time length between the second fluctuating node and the end node is calculated, recorded as the second time difference, and the second impact duration of the newly added item in the current year is calculated according to the first time difference; the fluctuating electricity sales are calculated according to the first impact duration and the second impact duration.

[0015] Compared with the prior art, the technical effects achieved by adopting the technical scheme are as follows: the calculation of the first time difference and the second time difference can obtain the progress of the first fluctuating project and the second fluctuating project in actual work, the calculation of the first time difference and the second time difference can obtain the impact of the time fluctuation of the project on the total electricity sales of the power grid company, the calculation of the first impact duration and the second impact duration can further obtain the impact of the time fluctuation of the project on the electricity sales of the power grid company in the current year, and provide correction indicators for the electricity sales in the accounting period.

[0016] In one embodiment of the present invention, the time length between the first fluctuation node and the newly added node is calculated, recorded as the first time difference, and the first impact duration of the newly added project in the current year is calculated based on the first time difference. The time length between the second fluctuation node and the completion node is calculated, recorded as the second time difference, and the second impact duration of the newly added project in the current year is calculated based on the first time difference, specifically including: obtaining the first expected working time of the newly added project in the current year, calculating the first actual working time of the newly added project in the current year based on the first time difference; calculating the first impact time based on the first expected working time and the first actual working time; obtaining the second expected working time of the completed project in the current year, calculating the second actual working time of the completed project in the current year based on the second time difference; calculating the second impact time based on the second expected working time and the second actual working time.

[0017] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: the calculation of the expected working hours and the actual working hours can intuitively obtain the impact of the project progress on the current annual electricity sales of the power grid company.

[0018] In one embodiment of the present invention, the fluctuating electricity sales volume is calculated based on the first impact duration and the second impact duration, specifically including: calculating the fluctuation amount of the newly added project based on the first impact duration and the first electricity consumption, and calculating the fluctuation amount of the completed project based on the second impact duration and the second electricity consumption; calculating the fluctuating electricity sales volume based on the fluctuation amount of the newly added project and the fluctuation amount of the completed project.

[0019] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: by calculating the fluctuation amount of the newly added project, the power sales amount corresponding to the first fluctuation project is calculated according to the expected new node or end time, and the corresponding fluctuation amount of the newly added project is compensated according to the first impact duration; by calculating the fluctuation amount of the completed project, the power sales amount corresponding to the second fluctuation project is calculated according to the expected completion node, and the corresponding fluctuation amount of the completed project is compensated according to the second impact duration; finally, the current power sales amount is corrected by the power sales fluctuation amount, and the expected power sales amount that can reflect the operating conditions of the power grid company in the current accounting period is obtained, so that the prediction and analysis method of the power grid operating indicators is more accurate.

[0020] In one embodiment of the present invention, it is determined whether the target electricity sales volume can be completed within the current year based on the expected electricity sales volume, specifically including: when the expected electricity sales volume is greater than or equal to the periodic electricity sales volume, the target electricity sales volume can be completed within the current year; when the expected electricity sales volume is less than the periodic electricity sales volume, the increase rate of the periodic electricity sales volume is calculated based on the time length of the remaining accounting cycle of the current year.

[0021] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: the comparison between the expected electricity sales and the periodic electricity sales allows the operating status of the power grid company to be more intuitively reflected, and the calculation of the periodic electricity sales increase rate can link the changes in the electricity sales plan with the remaining time of the current year. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0022] Figure 1 This is one of the flow charts of the forecasting and analyzing method of power grid operation indicators of the present invention;

[0023] Figure 2 This is the second flow chart of the forecasting and analyzing method of power grid operation indicators of the present invention;

[0024] Figure 3 This is the third flow chart of the forecasting and analyzing method of power grid operation indicators of the present invention;

[0025] Figure 4 This is the fourth flow chart of the forecasting and analyzing method of power grid operation indicators of the present invention;

[0026] Figure 5 This is the fifth flow chart of the forecasting and analysis method for power grid operation indicators of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0027] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, specific embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0028] [First embodiment]

[0029] See also Figure 1 and Figure 2 In a specific embodiment, the present invention provides a method for predicting and analyzing power grid operation indicators, the method comprising:

[0030] S100, establish an operation and management platform to obtain the electricity sales indicators that the power grid company needs to complete in the current year, which are recorded as the target electricity sales;

[0031] S200, obtaining new projects and completed projects in the current year, recording the start time of the new project as the new node, and recording the end time of the completed project as the completed node;

[0032] S300, dividing the current year into multiple accounting cycles according to the same time interval, and calculating the periodic electricity sales corresponding to each accounting cycle according to the newly added nodes and the completed nodes;

[0033] S400, obtaining the current electricity sales amount of the current year in each accounting period, and comparing the current electricity sales amount with the periodic electricity sales amount;

[0034] S500, when the current electricity sales volume is less than the periodic electricity sales volume, obtaining the project progress of the newly added project and the completed project;

[0035] S510, filter out the newly added items whose start time is different from the newly added node, record them as the first fluctuation items, filter out the completed items whose end time is different from the completed node, record them as the second fluctuation items;

[0036] S520, calculating the fluctuating power sales within the accounting period according to the first fluctuating item and the second fluctuating item, and correcting the current power sales according to the fluctuating power sales to obtain the estimated power sales;

[0037] S530, judging whether the target power sales volume can be completed within the current year based on the estimated power sales volume; if so, the power sales plan of the power grid company does not need to be changed; if not, adjusting the power sales plan based on the estimated power sales volume and the target power sales volume;

[0038] S600: When the current electricity sales amount is greater than or equal to the periodic electricity sales amount, the power grid company's electricity sales plan does not need to be changed.

[0039] In step S100, the electricity sales index to be completed in the current year is usually calculated at the beginning of the year or at the end of the previous year based on the electricity sales situation in the previous year.

[0040] In step S200, a newly added project refers to a project that was not carried out in the previous year but will be started in the current year, and a completed project refers to a project that was started in the previous year but was not completed in the previous year.

[0041] In step S300, the same time interval is usually divided according to months, and each accounting cycle is usually one month. When estimating the electricity sales in the current year, the new nodes and the completed nodes are calculated according to the planned time. The periodic electricity sales corresponding to the accounting cycle is calculated through the working time of the new projects and the completed projects within the accounting cycle.

[0042] In step S400, in the current year, after each accounting cycle, the current electricity sales of the power grid company are counted, and by comparing the periodic electricity sales with the current electricity sales, the completion status of the power grid company's operating indicators during the accounting cycle can be obtained.

[0043] In step S500, in each accounting cycle, there may be new nodes and completion nodes, but in the actual process, the time of the new nodes and the completion nodes will change, which will cause fluctuations in electricity sales. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain the project progress of the new projects and the completed projects, and calculate the periodic electricity sales according to the changes in the new nodes and the completion nodes.

[0044] In step S510 to step S530, if the progress of the project does not match the expected time, it is necessary to calculate the power sales volume according to the time changes of the project, and calculate the impact of the changes in the newly added nodes and the completed nodes on the current power sales volume based on the fluctuating power sales volume to obtain the expected power sales volume.

[0045] The estimated electricity sales volume is used to determine whether the power grid company's operating conditions in the current accounting cycle meet the expected standards for the current year. If the estimated electricity sales volume meets the expected standards, it means that the target electricity sales volume can be achieved in the current year according to the current operating method. If the estimated electricity sales volume does not meet the expected standards, it is necessary to adjust the electricity sales method based on the specific values ​​of the estimated electricity sales volume and the target electricity sales volume. The adjustment plan for the electricity sales method includes but is not limited to: adjusting the electricity price and increasing the maximum electricity sales volume per unit time.

[0046] In step S600, if the current electricity sales amount is directly greater than the periodic electricity sales amount, it means that the operation of the power grid company is good and the electricity sales plan does not need to be changed.

[0047] The setting of the operation and management platform facilitates the statistics of data related to the operation indicators of the power grid company. The acquisition of new nodes and completion nodes enables the power grid company to count the electricity consumption of the projects it is responsible for. The calculation of periodic power sales can obtain the estimated power consumption of each engineering project, and formulate the target power sales based on the estimated power consumption. The acquisition of current power sales can obtain the actual operation of the power grid company in each accounting cycle. The screening of the first and second fluctuation projects can obtain the time changes of the actual execution of the project in the current year. The calculation of the estimated power sales can obtain the impact of the time changes of the project on the power sales in the accounting period, and obtain the power sales that are more in line with the actual operation situation, so as to avoid the power grid company being misled by the periodic operation indicators and making unreasonable plans for the subsequent work of the current year.

[0048] [Second embodiment]

[0049] See also Figure 3 In a specific embodiment, the current year is divided into multiple accounting cycles according to the same time interval, and the periodic electricity sales corresponding to each accounting cycle is calculated according to the newly added nodes and the completed nodes, specifically including:

[0050] S310, predicting the first working days of the newly added projects in each accounting cycle, and the first power consumption corresponding to each first working day, predicting the second working days of the completed projects in each accounting cycle, and the second power consumption corresponding to each second working day;

[0051] S320, obtaining a proportion of engineering power consumption in each calculation cycle according to the first power consumption and the second power consumption;

[0052] S330. Obtain the historical period corresponding to each accounting period and the historical electricity sales amount of each historical period from the operation and management platform. Calculate the period electricity sales amount based on the historical electricity sales amount and the proportion of engineering electricity consumption in each accounting period.

[0053] In step S310, when formulating the target electricity sales volume, the first working day of each new project and the second day of each completed project will be counted, and the first power consumption and the second power consumption will be calculated using the power-consuming equipment used in the project and the average power consumption of various types of projects stored in the business management platform.

[0054] In step S320, after obtaining the first power consumption and the second power consumption of each accounting cycle, the first power consumption and the second power consumption of each accounting cycle are added together to obtain the total power consumption of new projects and completed projects in the current year, and then the power consumption proportion of each accounting cycle is calculated based on the first power consumption and the second power consumption of each accounting cycle.

[0055] For example, the accounting cycle is divided into quarters, that is, the current year is divided into four accounting cycles, the sum of the first and second power consumption in the first quarter is a1, the sum of the first and second power consumption in the second quarter is a2, the sum of the first and second power consumption in the third quarter is a3, and the sum of the first and second power consumption in the fourth quarter is a4. The proportion of engineering power consumption in the first quarter is d1, then d1=a1÷(a1+a2+a3+a4).

[0056] In step S330, the corresponding historical period refers to a historical period that is different from the year of the current year but has the same corresponding time span. For example, if the accounting period is the first quarter of the current year, then the historical period is the power sales situation of the power grid company in the first quarter of previous years. If the accounting period changes, the historical period can be adjusted according to the specific changes. That is, the accounting period is the first quarter of the current year, but the historical period is divided according to months. At this time, it is necessary to integrate the power sales situation from January to March of previous years.

[0057] After the historical electricity sales are obtained, the periodic electricity sales are calculated based on the historical electricity sales and the proportion of engineering electricity consumption. When setting the operating indicators of electricity sales, we cannot only consider the time aspect. We must set reasonable phased indicators based on the electricity consumption of the engineering projects to make the prediction of the power grid operating indicators more reasonable. Taking the accounting cycle divided into quarters as an example, if the indicators are set in stages, that is, 25% of the target electricity sales are completed each quarter, but summer is often the peak season for electricity consumption. Therefore, the electricity sales in the third quarter are often the highest in all the years. Therefore, even if the power grid company did not complete 50% of the target electricity sales at the end of the second quarter, it does not mean that the power grid’s operating indicators at this stage have not been met. On the contrary, at the end of the third quarter, the power grid company has just completed 75% of the target electricity sales, which does not necessarily mean that the power grid company’s operating indicators in the first three quarters have been met.

[0058] The calculation of the first power consumption and the second power consumption can obtain the estimated power consumption of the project in each accounting period. The calculation of the proportion of project power consumption can set a reasonable periodic power sales amount according to the project power consumption. The acquisition of historical power sales amount can make the periodic power sales amount more in line with the power grid company's operating conditions over the years.

[0059] [Third embodiment]

[0060] In a specific embodiment, the historical period corresponding to each accounting period and the historical electricity sales of each historical period are obtained from the business management platform. The period electricity sales are calculated according to the historical electricity sales and the proportion of engineering power consumption in each accounting period, specifically including:

[0061] S331. Calculate the historical proportion of each historical period based on the historical electricity sales, and correct the historical proportion based on the engineering power consumption proportion to obtain the predicted proportion;

[0062] S332. Calculate the periodic electricity sales volume for each accounting period based on the predicted proportion and the target electricity sales volume.

[0063] In step S331 to step S332, when calculating the historical proportion, the electricity sales volume of non-engineering projects is used for calculation. The engineering power consumption proportion can obtain the electricity sales volume of engineering projects in the current year, and the changes in the electricity sales volume of non-engineering projects in previous years can be obtained through the historical electricity sales volume, and the changes in the electricity sales volume of non-engineering projects in each accounting period can be further inferred.

[0064] It should be noted that the electricity sales of new projects and completed projects can be predicted based on the annual plan before the beginning of the current year, but the electricity sales of non-engineering projects can only be estimated based on historical data. Usually, residential areas will add more electrical equipment and industrial areas will introduce more automated equipment to replace manual labor, which will lead to an increase in electricity sales.

[0065] By obtaining historical electricity sales, we can obtain the proportion of electricity consumption corresponding to the accounting cycles of previous years of the power grid company. Combined with the proportion of engineering electricity consumption in the current year, we can get the predicted proportion that conforms to the power grid company's own operating conditions, making the power grid company's periodic indicators more accurate, and allowing the periodic electricity sales to more intuitively reflect the power grid company's operating conditions in the current year, facilitating timely adjustments.

[0066] [Fourth embodiment]

[0067] See also Figure 4 In a specific embodiment, the historical proportion of each historical period is calculated according to the historical electricity sales, and the historical proportion is corrected according to the engineering power consumption proportion to obtain the predicted proportion, which specifically includes:

[0068] S331a, screening the historical period to obtain the electricity sales of non-engineering projects in the historical period, and recording it as the adjusted electricity;

[0069] S331b, judging the electricity quantity change trend of the accounting period according to the adjusted electricity quantity of previous years, and predicting the change of electricity sales in each accounting period according to the electricity quantity change trend;

[0070] S331c. Correct the historical proportion according to the change in electricity sales to obtain the change proportion, and correct the change proportion according to the engineering power consumption proportion to obtain the predicted proportion.

[0071] In step S331a to step S331b, the adjusted electricity is also obtained in accordance with the accounting cycle. If the time interval of the accounting cycle is one month, there are 12 accounting cycles in the current year. When predicting the non-engineering electricity sales in January of the current year, it is necessary to refer to the adjusted electricity in January of previous years to predict the change in electricity sales in January of the current year relative to the previous year.

[0072] In step S331c, after the predicted change in electricity sales for each accounting period of the current year is obtained, the change proportion of each accounting period is calculated based on the change in electricity sales for each period and the historical proportion. The predicted proportion of each accounting period is obtained by combining the change proportion with the engineering power consumption proportion.

[0073] By screening historical periods, we can obtain the non-engineering electricity consumption of power grid companies in the same accounting period over the years. The comparison of the same accounting periods can better reflect the changing trend of power grid companies' electricity sales over the years in the same accounting period, making the current year's indicator forecast more accurate and the prediction of power grid companies' operating indicators more convenient.

[0074] [Fifth embodiment]

[0075] In a specific embodiment, judging the power change trend of the accounting period according to the adjusted power in previous years, and predicting the change amount of power sold in each accounting period according to the power change trend, specifically includes:

[0076] S331b1. When the power consumption change trend is upward, the adjusted power consumption corresponding to the historical period that meets the upward trend is selected to calculate the load change coefficient, and the change in power sales is predicted based on the load change coefficient;

[0077] S331b2. When the power consumption change trend is downward, the adjusted power consumption corresponding to the last two historical periods is selected to calculate the load change coefficient, and the change in power sales is predicted based on the load change coefficient;

[0078] S331b3. When the electricity quantity change trend is fluctuating, select the target number of adjusted electricity quantities to calculate the electricity quantity fluctuation rate of the adjusted electricity quantity, calculate the load change coefficient based on the electricity quantity fluctuation rate, and predict the change in electricity sales based on the load change coefficient.

[0079] In step S331b1, when judging the trend, the changes in the past four years are usually used as a reference. When the electricity change trend in the most recent four years shows an upward trend, it means that the power grid company's electricity sales in this accounting period are increasing year by year. At this time, it is necessary to obtain a continuous upward historical period. For example, the power grid company's electricity sales in January of each year in the past five years have shown an upward trend. When judging the change trend, only the most recent four years are selected as reference data. When calculating the load change coefficient, only the adjusted electricity in the past four years is also referred to.

[0080] The change rates of electricity sales between two consecutive years are calculated from the earliest to the latest time, and are recorded as F1, F2 and F3 respectively. The load change coefficient is recorded as C. The load change coefficient and the change rate of electricity sales satisfy the following relationship:

[0081] When F3≤F2≤F1, C=F3×(1+F3-F2);

[0082] When F1≤F2≤F3, C=F3;

[0083] When F1, F2, and F3 do not satisfy the above two conditions, C takes the maximum value among F1, F2, and F3.

[0084] Let the adjusted electricity volume of the previous year be F0, and the change in electricity sales be △F, △F= (1 + C) × F0.

[0085] In step S331b2, when the electricity consumption change trend is downward, it means that the power grid company's electricity sales in this accounting period is decreasing year by year. At this time, the electricity sales change rate is directly calculated based on the adjusted electricity consumption in the past two years, and then the electricity sales change amount is calculated based on the electricity sales change rate.

[0086] In step S331b3, when the load shows a fluctuating trend, it indicates that the power consumption of the power grid company has become relatively stable. When the load fluctuation rate of the adjacent second load result is obtained, the average load fluctuation rate of the second load result is calculated to obtain the load variation coefficient, and then the change in power sales is calculated based on the power sales change rate, that is, C=(F1+F2+F3)÷3.

[0087] Taking the current year's quarterly accounting cycle as an example, the corresponding changes in electricity sales from the first quarter to the fourth quarter are △F1 to △F4. The corresponding non-engineering project electricity sales from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of the previous year are B1 to B4. The historical proportions are corrected according to the calculated changes in electricity sales to obtain the change proportions. For example, the sum of B1 to B4 is 200 billion kWh, B1 = 40 billion kWh, B2 = 50 billion kWh, B3 = 60 billion kWh, B4 = 50 billion kWh, and the corresponding historical proportions of each quarter of the previous year are e1, e2, e3 and e4 respectively. At this time, e1 = 20%, e2 = 25%, e3 = 30%, and e4 = 25%. △F1 to △F4 are 1 billion kWh, 4 billion kWh, 3 billion kWh and 2 billion kWh respectively. After correction, the change proportions are b1, b2, b3 and b4 respectively. At this time, b1=19.52%, b2=25.72%, b3=30% and b4=24.76%.

[0088] Then the predicted proportion is calculated based on the change proportion. The specific calculation method is as follows:

[0089] The proportion of engineering power consumption from the first quarter to the fourth quarter is d1, d2, d3 and d4 respectively, and the predicted proportion from the first quarter to the fourth quarter is c1, c2, c3 and c4 respectively. Let d1 + d2 + d3 + d4 = S1, b1 + b2 + b3 + b4 = S2. The historical proportion, predicted proportion and engineering power consumption proportion satisfy the following relationship:

[0090] c1=(b1+d1)÷(S1+S2);

[0091] c2=(b2+d2)÷(S1+S2);

[0092] c3=(b3+d3)÷(S1+S2);

[0093] c4=(b4+d4)÷(S1+S2).

[0094] The target power sales volume is V0, and the periodic power sales volume from the first quarter to the fourth quarter are V1 to V4 respectively. The target power sales volume and the periodic power sales volume satisfy the following relationship:

[0095] V1=V0×c1;

[0096] V2=V0×c2;

[0097] V3=V0×c3;

[0098] V4=V0×c4.

[0099] For example, d1 to d4 are 20%, 25%, 30% and 25% respectively, b1 to b4 are 18%, 26%, 32% and 24% respectively, then c1 to c4 are 19%, 25.5%, 31% and 24.5% respectively. If V=200 billion kWh, then V1=38 billion kWh, then V2=51 billion kWh, then V1=62 billion kWh, then V1=49 billion kWh.

[0100] By adjusting the electricity volume over the years, we can obtain the electricity volume change pattern of the power grid company in each accounting period over the years. Through the change pattern, we can obtain the load change coefficient of the power grid company, so that the load change coefficient is more consistent with the power sales situation of the power grid company. By calculating the change in electricity sales through the load change coefficient, we can make the change in electricity sales more consistent with the power sales situation of the power grid company and make the prediction of the change in electricity sales more accurate.

[0101] [Sixth embodiment]

[0102] See also Figure 5In a specific embodiment, the fluctuating power sales amount within the accounting period is calculated according to the first fluctuating item and the second fluctuating item, and the current power sales amount is corrected according to the fluctuating power sales amount to obtain the estimated power sales amount, which specifically includes:

[0103] S521, the start time of the first wave project is recorded as the first wave node, and the end time of the second wave project is recorded as the second wave node;

[0104] S522, calculating the time length between the first fluctuation node and the newly added node, recording it as the first time difference, and calculating the first impact time length of the newly added project in the current year based on the first time difference; calculating the time length between the second fluctuation node and the completion node, recording it as the second time difference, and calculating the second impact time length of the newly added project in the current year based on the first time difference;

[0105] S523. Calculate the fluctuating power sales volume according to the first impact duration and the second impact duration.

[0106] In step S522 and step S523, when the start time of the newly added project changes, when calculating the electricity sales in the current year, it is first necessary to consider whether the execution time of the newly added project in the current year will change.

[0107] When calculating the second impact duration, the second impact duration can be directly calculated based on the second time difference. When the second fluctuation node is located in the current year, the second time difference is equal to the second impact duration. When the second fluctuation node is located in the next year, the second impact duration is the time difference between the completion node and the last day of the current year.

[0108] The influence of the first fluctuation item on the electricity sales in the accounting period is calculated by the first impact duration and the first electricity consumption, and the influence of the second fluctuation item on the electricity sales in the accounting period is calculated by the second impact duration and the second electricity consumption.

[0109] The calculation of the first time difference and the second time difference can obtain the progress of the first fluctuating project and the second fluctuating project in actual work, the calculation of the first time difference and the second time difference can obtain the impact of the time fluctuation of the project on the total electricity sales of the power grid company, the calculation of the first impact duration and the second impact duration can further obtain the impact of the time fluctuation of the project on the electricity sales of the power grid company in the current year, and provide correction indicators for the electricity sales in the accounting period.

[0110] [Seventh embodiment]

[0111] In a specific embodiment, the time length between the first fluctuation node and the newly added node is calculated, recorded as the first time difference, and the first impact time of the newly added project in the current year is calculated according to the first time difference. The time length between the second fluctuation node and the completion node is calculated, recorded as the second time difference, and the second impact time of the newly added project in the current year is calculated according to the first time difference, which specifically includes:

[0112] S522a, obtaining a first estimated working time of the newly added project in the current year, calculating a first actual working time of the newly added project in the current year according to the first time difference, and calculating a first impact time according to the first estimated working time and the first actual working time;

[0113] S522b, obtaining the second estimated working time of the completed project in the current year, calculating the second actual working time of the completed project in the current year according to the second time difference, and calculating the second impact time according to the second estimated working time and the second actual working time.

[0114] In step S522a and step S522b, the first estimated working time is the total duration between the start node of the first fluctuation project and the estimated end time of the first fluctuation project in the current year. If the start node of the first fluctuation project is March 1, and the estimated end time of the first fluctuation project is March 10, the first estimated working time is 10 days. If the start node of the first fluctuation project is December 1, and the estimated end time of the first fluctuation project is March 10 of the following year, the first estimated working time is 31 days. The first actual working time is the time interval between the first fluctuation node and the start node of the first fluctuation project.

[0115] The second estimated working time is the time interval between the completion node and January 1 of the current year, and the second actual working time is the time interval between the second fluctuation node and January 1 of the current year.

[0116] The newly added node corresponding to the first fluctuation project is May 1st of the current year, and the estimated end time of the first fluctuation project is August 1st of the current year. In actual work, the first fluctuation node was postponed to May 10th, and the estimated end time was also postponed by 10 days accordingly. At this time, the first time difference is 10 days. The first impact duration calculates the total working time of the first fluctuation project in the current year, and the estimated end time is still within the current year. Therefore, the first fluctuation project has no impact on the electricity sales volume in the current year, that is, the first impact duration is 0.

[0117] The calculation of expected working hours and actual working hours can intuitively show the impact of the project progress on the power grid company's current annual electricity sales.

[0118] [Eighth embodiment]

[0119] In a specific embodiment, calculating the fluctuating power sales amount according to the first impact duration and the second impact duration specifically includes:

[0120] S523a, calculating the fluctuation amount of the newly added project according to the first impact duration and the first power consumption, and calculating the fluctuation amount of the completed project according to the second impact duration and the second power consumption;

[0121] S523b. Calculate the fluctuating electricity sales amount based on the fluctuating amount of the newly added projects and the fluctuating amount of the completed projects.

[0122] In step S523a and step S523b, when calculating the fluctuation amount of the newly added project, when the first impact duration is 0, it is only necessary to calculate the fluctuation amount of the newly added project in the accounting period according to the number of days of the change of the newly added project, the date of early start and the first power consumption. If the newly added project starts in advance, the fluctuation amount of the newly added project needs to be subtracted when calculating the fluctuating power sales. If the newly added project is delayed, the fluctuation amount of the newly added project needs to be added when calculating the fluctuating power sales. When the first impact duration is not equal to 0, after calculating the fluctuation amount of the newly added project, the power sales loss caused by the first impact duration must be additionally subtracted, and then the fluctuation amount of the completed project of the second fluctuating project mediastinum is calculated according to the second impact duration and the second power consumption, and the fluctuating power sales can be obtained.

[0123] For example, taking the data of step S331b3 as an example, the current electricity sales of the power grid company in the first quarter is 37 billion kWh, the fluctuating electricity sales is 1.5 billion kWh, and the periodic electricity sales is 38 billion kWh. If the impact of changes in the progress of engineering projects is not considered, the power grid company's electricity sales in the first quarter did not meet the operating indicators. However, after converting the fluctuating electricity sales, the power grid company's estimated electricity sales in the first quarter are 38.5 billion, which exceeds the periodic electricity sales of 38 billion. The failure to meet the periodic electricity sales indicators does not mean that there are problems with the operating methods, but is caused by changes in the progress of engineering projects. Therefore, the operating status of the power grid company cannot be judged simply by the current electricity sales.

[0124] It should be noted that for the first fluctuating item and the second fluctuating item calculated after the fluctuating electricity sales volume, when the construction period of the project has not changed again, there is no need to perform multiple calculations. It is only necessary to perform the calculations according to the data when the periodic electricity sales volume was set. When the construction period changes again, it is necessary to substitute the first data when calculating the first impact duration and the second impact duration to avoid repeated calculations, which will lead to incorrect estimated electricity sales volume data.

[0125] By calculating the fluctuation amount of the newly added projects, the electricity sales corresponding to the first fluctuation project is calculated according to the expected new nodes or end time, and the corresponding fluctuation amount of the newly added projects is compensated according to the first impact duration. By calculating the fluctuation amount of the completed projects, the electricity sales corresponding to the second fluctuation project is calculated according to the expected completion node, and the corresponding fluctuation amount of the completed project is compensated according to the second impact duration. Finally, the current electricity sales are corrected by the electricity sales fluctuation amount to obtain the expected electricity sales that can reflect the operating conditions of the power grid company in the current accounting period, making the forecasting and analysis method of the power grid operating indicators more accurate.

[0126] [Ninth embodiment]

[0127] In a specific embodiment, judging whether the target power sales volume can be completed within the current year according to the estimated power sales volume specifically includes:

[0128] S531. When the estimated electricity sales volume is greater than or equal to the periodic electricity sales volume, the target electricity sales volume can be completed within the current year;

[0129] S532. When the estimated electricity sales volume is less than the periodic electricity sales volume, the increase rate of the periodic electricity sales volume is calculated according to the length of the remaining accounting cycle of the current year.

[0130] In step S531 to step S532, the estimated electricity sales volume is greater than the periodic electricity sales volume, indicating that the current electricity sales volume is lower than the periodic electricity sales volume only due to the change in the construction period of the engineering project. The power grid can achieve the target electricity sales volume index according to the current operation mode. The estimated electricity sales volume is less than the periodic electricity sales volume, indicating that there are problems in the operation of the power grid company, which need to be corrected in time. The more accounting cycles remaining, the longer the operating model can be adjusted. According to the difference between the estimated electricity sales volume and the periodic electricity sales volume, the electricity sales volume ratio that should be increased in each accounting cycle is calculated, and a corresponding electricity sales plan is formulated.

[0131] The comparison between the expected electricity sales and the periodic electricity sales provides a more intuitive picture of the grid company's operating status, and the calculation of the periodic electricity sales increase rate enables changes in the electricity sales plan to be linked to the remainder of the current year.

[0132] Although the present invention is disclosed as above, the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art can make various changes and modifications without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the scope defined by the claims.

Claims

1. A method for predicting and analyzing power grid operation indicators, characterized in that: The analysis method comprises: Establish an operation and management platform to obtain the electricity sales indicators that the power grid company needs to complete in the current year and record them as target electricity sales; Acquire the newly added projects and completed projects in the current year, record the start time of the newly added project as the added node, and record the end time of the completed project as the completed node; Divide the current year into multiple accounting cycles according to the same time intervals, and calculate the periodic electricity sales corresponding to each accounting cycle according to the newly added nodes and the completed nodes; Acquire the current electricity sales volume of the current year in each accounting period, and compare the current electricity sales volume with the periodic electricity sales volume; When the current electricity sales amount is less than the periodic electricity sales amount, obtaining the project progress of the newly added project and the completed project; Filter out the newly added items whose start time is different from the newly added node and record them as first fluctuation items, and filter out the completed items whose end time is different from the completed node and record them as second fluctuation items; Calculate the fluctuating power sales volume within the calculation period according to the first fluctuating item and the second fluctuating item, and correct the current power sales volume according to the fluctuating power sales volume to obtain the estimated power sales volume; Determining whether the target electricity sales volume can be achieved within the current year based on the estimated electricity sales volume; If so, the power sales plan of the power grid company does not need to be changed; If not, adjusting the electricity sales plan according to the estimated electricity sales amount and the target electricity sales amount; When the current power sales volume is greater than or equal to the periodic power sales volume, the power sales plan of the power grid company does not need to be changed; The step of dividing the current year into a plurality of accounting cycles according to the same time intervals, and calculating the periodic electricity sales corresponding to each accounting cycle according to the newly added nodes and the completed nodes specifically includes: Predicting the first working days of the newly added project in each of the accounting cycles, and the first power consumption corresponding to each of the first working days; Predicting the second working days of the completed project in each of the accounting cycles, and the second power consumption corresponding to each of the second working days; Obtaining a proportion of engineering power consumption in each calculation period according to the first power consumption and the second power consumption; Obtaining from the business management platform the historical period corresponding to each accounting period and the historical electricity sales of each historical period, and calculating the period electricity sales according to the historical electricity sales and the proportion of the project electricity consumption in each accounting period; The obtaining of the historical period corresponding to each accounting period and the historical electricity sales of each historical period from the operation and management platform, and the calculation of the periodic electricity sales according to the historical electricity sales and the proportion of the project electricity consumption in each accounting period, specifically includes: Calculate the historical proportion of each historical period according to the historical electricity sales, and correct the historical proportion according to the engineering power consumption proportion to obtain the predicted proportion; Calculate the periodic electricity sales volume of each calculation period according to the predicted proportion and the target electricity sales volume; The calculating of the historical proportion of each historical period according to the historical power sales, and correcting the historical proportion according to the engineering power consumption proportion to obtain the predicted proportion specifically includes: The historical period is screened to obtain the electricity sales of non-engineering projects in the historical period, which is recorded as the adjusted electricity; Determine the electricity quantity change trend of the accounting period according to the adjusted electricity quantity of previous years, and predict the change in electricity sales in each accounting period according to the electricity quantity change trend; The historical proportion is corrected according to the change in electricity sales to obtain the change proportion, and the change proportion is corrected according to the engineering power consumption proportion to obtain the predicted proportion; The calculating the fluctuating power sales volume within the calculation period according to the first fluctuating item and the second fluctuating item, and correcting the current power sales volume according to the fluctuating power sales volume to obtain the estimated power sales volume specifically includes: The start time of the first wave project is recorded as the first wave node, and the end time of the second wave project is recorded as the second wave node; Calculate the time length between the first fluctuation node and the newly added node, record it as a first time difference, and calculate the first impact duration of the newly added project in the current year according to the first time difference; Calculate the time length between the second fluctuation node and the completion node, record it as the second time difference, and calculate the second impact time length of the new project in the current year according to the first time difference; Calculating the fluctuating power sales volume according to the first impact duration and the second impact duration specifically includes: Calculate the fluctuation amount of the newly added project according to the first impact duration and the first power consumption, and calculate the fluctuation amount of the completed project according to the second impact duration and the second power consumption; The fluctuating electricity sales amount is calculated according to the fluctuating amount of the newly added project and the fluctuating amount of the completed project.

2. The method for predicting and analyzing power grid operating indicators according to claim 1, characterized in that: The determining of the electricity quantity change trend of the accounting period according to the adjusted electricity quantity of previous years, and predicting the change in electricity sales in each accounting period according to the electricity quantity change trend specifically includes: When the power change trend is an upward trend, the adjusted power corresponding to the historical period that meets the upward trend is selected to calculate the load change coefficient, and the power sales change is predicted according to the load change coefficient; When the power consumption change trend is a downward trend, the adjusted power consumption corresponding to the two most recent historical periods is selected to calculate the load change coefficient, and the power sales change amount is predicted according to the load change coefficient; When the power consumption change trend is a fluctuating trend, a target number of the adjusted power consumption is selected to calculate the power consumption fluctuation rate of the adjusted power consumption, the load change coefficient is calculated according to the power consumption fluctuation rate, and the power sales change amount is predicted according to the load change coefficient.

3. The method for predicting and analyzing power grid operating indicators according to claim 2, characterized in that: The calculating of the time length between the first fluctuation node and the newly added node is recorded as a first time difference, and calculating the first impact time length of the newly added project in the current year according to the first time difference, and calculating the time length between the second fluctuation node and the completion node is recorded as a second time difference, and calculating the second impact time length of the newly added project in the current year according to the first time difference specifically includes: Obtaining a first estimated working time of the newly added project in the current year, and calculating a first actual working time of the newly added project in the current year according to the first time difference; Calculate the first impact duration according to the first estimated working duration and the first actual working duration; Obtaining a second estimated working time of the completed project in the current year, and calculating a second actual working time of the completed project in the current year according to the second time difference; The second impact duration is calculated according to the second estimated working duration and the second actual working duration.

4. The method for predicting and analyzing power grid operating indicators according to claim 3, characterized in that: The determining, based on the estimated power sales volume, whether the target power sales volume can be completed within the current year specifically includes: When the estimated electricity sales volume is greater than or equal to the periodic electricity sales volume, the target electricity sales volume can be completed within the current year; When the estimated electricity sales amount is less than the periodic electricity sales amount, the increase rate of the periodic electricity sales amount is calculated according to the time length of the accounting cycle remaining in the current year.

Images