Method and system for determining climate state simulation capability of forecasting system

Abstract

The invention provides a forecasting system climate state simulation capability determination method and system. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring marine climate state data simulated by a forecasting system within a preset duration and a pre-constructed marine climate state data set; determining a deviation value of the marine climate state data simulated by the forecasting system within the preset time length according to the marine climate state data simulated by the forecasting system within the preset time length and a pre-constructed marine climate state data set; and determining the climate state simulation capability value of the forecasting system according to the deviation value of the marine climate state data simulated by the forecasting system within the preset duration. According to the technical scheme provided by the invention, the climate state simulation capability of the forecasting system can be accurately evaluated, and a guarantee is provided for subsequent business operation.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of forecast system evaluation, and in particular to a method and system for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecast system. Background Art

[0002] The ocean forecast system LICOM (abbreviated as: forecast system) is an important tool for simulating and studying the long-term ocean circulation change mechanism. Its essence can be attributed to the use of discrete time and space differences to solve a set of partial differential equations, mainly including momentum equations, thermodynamic equations, salinity equations, salt water state equations and a series of parameterized processes such as solar radiation and long-wave radiation. With the development of scientific research and the demand for business applications, the forecast system that simulates and studies the ocean circulation change mechanism needs to develop towards more physical processes, higher resolution, shorter time scales and faster computing speeds, which means that the code of the forecast system is becoming more and more complex, and the amount of calculation and storage space required to run the forecast system will also increase dramatically, which will reduce the accuracy of the climate state simulation of the forecast system and cannot provide guarantees for subsequent business operations. Therefore, it is urgent to evaluate the simulation accuracy of the forecast system. Summary of the invention

[0003] The present application provides a method and system for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecasting system, so as to at least solve the technical problem of inaccurate climate state simulation capability of a forecasting system in the prior art.

[0004] The first embodiment of the present application provides a method for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecasting system, the method comprising:

[0005] Obtain ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set;

[0006] Determining a deviation value of the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system according to the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set;

[0007] The climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system is determined according to the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

[0008] Preferably, the ocean climate data include: flow field, thermocline and mixing layer depth, and strait flow.

[0009] Further, the determining of the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system according to the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set includes:

[0010] Determine the difference between the flow field in the ocean climate state data within the preset time length simulated by the forecast system and the flow field in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set to obtain the flow field deviation value within the preset time length simulated by the forecast system;

[0011] Determine the difference between the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain the deviation value of the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system;

[0012] The difference between the strait flow in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the strait flow in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set is determined to obtain the strait flow deviation value within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

[0013] Furthermore, the step of determining the climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system according to the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system includes:

[0014] Based on the expert scoring method, the weight of the flow field, the weight of the depth of the thermocline and mixed layer, and the weight of the channel flow are determined respectively;

[0015] The climatic state simulation capability value of the forecasting system is determined according to the weight of each climatic state data, the flow field deviation value, the thermocline and mixing layer depth deviation value and the strait flow deviation value.

[0016] Furthermore, the calculation formula of the climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system is as follows:

[0017]

[0018] Where A is the climate simulation capability of the forecast system, a1 is the weight of the flow field, l is the flow field deviation value, L is the flow field value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set, a2 is the weight of the thermocline and mixed layer depth, w is the deviation value of the thermocline and mixed layer depth, W is the thermocline and mixed layer depth value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set, a3 is the weight of the strait flow, f is the strait flow deviation value, and F is the strait flow value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set.

[0019] The second embodiment of the present application provides a system for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecast system, comprising:

[0020] An acquisition module is used to acquire ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set;

[0021] A first determination module is used to determine the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system according to the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set;

[0022] The second determination module is used to determine the climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system according to the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

[0023] Preferably, the ocean climate data include: flow field, thermocline and mixing layer depth, and strait flow.

[0024] Furthermore, the first determining module includes:

[0025] A first determination unit is used to determine the difference between the flow field in the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the flow field in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain a flow field deviation value within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system;

[0026] A second determination unit is used to determine the difference between the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain a deviation value of the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system;

[0027] The third determination unit is used to determine the difference between the strait flow in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the strait flow in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain the strait flow deviation value within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

[0028] The third aspect of the present application provides an electronic device, comprising: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the program, the method described in the first aspect is implemented.

[0029] A fourth aspect of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the method described in the first aspect of the present application.

[0030] The technical solution provided by the embodiments of the present application brings at least the following beneficial effects:

[0031] The present application proposes a method and system for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecast system, the method comprising: obtaining ocean climate state data within a preset duration simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set; determining the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within the preset duration simulated by the forecast system based on the ocean climate state data within the preset duration simulated by the forecast system and the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set; determining the climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system based on the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within the preset duration simulated by the forecast system. The technical solution proposed in the present application can accurately evaluate the climate state simulation capability of the forecast system and provide guarantee for subsequent business operation.

[0032] Additional aspects and advantages of the present application will be given in part in the description below, and in part will become apparent from the description below, or will be learned through the practice of the present application. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0033] The above and / or additional aspects and advantages of the present application will become apparent and easily understood from the following description of the embodiments in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, in which:

[0034] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecasting system provided according to an embodiment of the present application;

[0035] Figure 2 A structural diagram of a system for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecast system provided according to an embodiment of the present application;

[0036] Figure 3 A structural diagram of a first determination module provided according to an embodiment of the present application;

[0037] Figure 4 It is a structural diagram of a second determination module provided according to an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0038] Embodiments of the present application are described in detail below, and examples of the embodiments are shown in the accompanying drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals throughout represent the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions. The embodiments described below with reference to the accompanying drawings are exemplary and are intended to be used to explain the present application, and should not be construed as limiting the present application.

[0039] The present application proposes a method and system for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecast system, the method comprising: obtaining ocean climate state data within a preset duration simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set; determining the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within the preset duration simulated by the forecast system based on the ocean climate state data within the preset duration simulated by the forecast system and the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set; determining the climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system based on the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within the preset duration simulated by the forecast system. The technical solution proposed in the present application can accurately evaluate the climate state simulation capability of the forecast system and provide guarantee for subsequent business operation.

[0040] A method and system for determining the climate simulation capability of a forecasting system according to an embodiment of the present application will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0041] Embodiment 1

[0042] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecasting system according to an embodiment of the present application is shown in FIG. Figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0043] Step 1: Obtain the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the pre-constructed ocean climate state dataset.

[0044] It should be noted that the preset duration may be 10 years;

[0045] The pre-constructed ocean climate state data set may be a climate state result of an international ocean climate state data set (such as WOA13, HYCOM, SODA, etc.).

[0046] The ocean climate data include: flow field, thermocline and mixed layer depth, and strait flow.

[0047] Flow field: mainly examines the forecast system's ability to simulate the main flow systems, including flow system flow, flow axis position, flow radius and its seasonal changes.

[0048] Thermocline and mixed layer depth: mainly examines the forecast system's ability to simulate thermocline distribution.

[0049] Strait flow: mainly examines the forecast system's ability to simulate strait flow.

[0050] Step 2: Determine the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system according to the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set.

[0051] In the embodiment of the present disclosure, step 2 specifically includes:

[0052] Determine the difference between the flow field in the ocean climate state data within the preset time length simulated by the forecast system and the flow field in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set to obtain the flow field deviation value within the preset time length simulated by the forecast system;

[0053] Determine the difference between the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain the deviation value of the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system;

[0054] The difference between the strait flow in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the strait flow in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set is determined to obtain the strait flow deviation value within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

[0055] Step 3: Determine the climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system according to the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

[0056] In the embodiment of the present disclosure, step 3 specifically includes:

[0057] Based on the expert scoring method, the weight of the flow field, the weight of the depth of the thermocline and mixed layer, and the weight of the channel flow are determined respectively;

[0058] The climatic state simulation capability value of the forecasting system is determined according to the weight of each climatic state data, the flow field deviation value, the thermocline and mixing layer depth deviation value and the strait flow deviation value.

[0059] Furthermore, the calculation formula of the climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system is as follows:

[0060]

[0061] Where A is the climate simulation capability of the forecast system, a1 is the weight of the flow field, l is the flow field deviation value, L is the flow field value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set, a2 is the weight of the thermocline and mixed layer depth, w is the deviation value of the thermocline and mixed layer depth, W is the thermocline and mixed layer depth value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set, a3 is the weight of the strait flow, f is the strait flow deviation value, and F is the strait flow value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set.

[0062] In summary, the method for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecast system proposed in this embodiment can accurately evaluate the climate state simulation capability of the forecast system and provide guarantee for subsequent business operations.

[0063] Embodiment 2

[0064] Figure 2 A structural diagram of a system for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecast system provided according to an embodiment of the present application is shown in FIG. Figure 2 As shown, the system comprises:

[0065] An acquisition module 100 is used to acquire ocean climate state data and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set within a preset time period simulated by a forecasting system;

[0066] The ocean climate data include: flow field, thermocline and mixing layer depth, and strait flow.

[0067] A first determination module 200, for determining a deviation value of the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system according to the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set;

[0068] The second determination module 300 is used to determine the climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system according to the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

[0069] In the embodiments of the present disclosure, Figure 3 As shown, the first determination module 200 includes:

[0070] The first determination unit 201 is used to determine the difference between the flow field in the ocean climate state data within the preset time length simulated by the forecast system and the flow field in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain the flow field deviation value within the preset time length simulated by the forecast system;

[0071] The second determination unit 202 is used to determine the difference between the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain the deviation value of the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system;

[0072] The third determination unit 203 is used to determine the difference between the strait flow in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the strait flow in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain the strait flow deviation value within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

[0073] In the embodiments of the present disclosure, Figure 4 As shown, the second determination module 300 includes:

[0074] The fourth determination unit 301 is used to determine the weight of the flow field, the weight of the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer, and the weight of the channel flow based on the expert scoring method;

[0075] The fifth determination unit 302 is used to determine the climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system according to the weight of each climate state data, the flow field deviation value, the thermocline and mixing layer depth deviation value and the strait flow deviation value.

[0076] The calculation formula of the climate simulation capability value of the forecast system is as follows:

[0077]

[0078] Where A is the climate simulation capability of the forecast system, a1 is the weight of the flow field, l is the flow field deviation value, L is the flow field value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set, a2 is the weight of the thermocline and mixed layer depth, w is the deviation value of the thermocline and mixed layer depth, W is the thermocline and mixed layer depth value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set, a3 is the weight of the strait flow, f is the strait flow deviation value, and F is the strait flow value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set.

[0079] In summary, the climate simulation capability determination system of a forecast system proposed in this embodiment can accurately evaluate the climate simulation capability of the forecast system and provide guarantee for subsequent business operation.

[0080] Embodiment 3

[0081] In order to implement the above embodiments, the present disclosure further proposes an electronic device, including: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the program, the method described in Embodiment 1 is implemented.

[0082] Embodiment 4

[0083] In order to implement the above embodiments, the present disclosure further proposes a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the method described in the first embodiment is implemented.

[0084] In the description of this specification, the description with reference to the terms "one embodiment", "some embodiments", "example", "specific example", or "some examples" etc. means that the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described in conjunction with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present application. In this specification, the schematic representations of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described may be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner. In addition, those skilled in the art may combine and combine the different embodiments or examples described in this specification and the features of the different embodiments or examples, without contradiction.

[0085] Any process or method description in a flowchart or otherwise described herein may be understood to represent a module, fragment or portion of code comprising one or more executable instructions for implementing the steps of a custom logical function or process, and the scope of the preferred embodiments of the present application includes alternative implementations in which functions may not be performed in the order shown or discussed, including performing functions in a substantially simultaneous manner or in the reverse order depending on the functions involved, which should be understood by technicians in the technical field to which the embodiments of the present application belong.

[0086] Although the embodiments of the present application have been shown and described above, it can be understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and cannot be understood as limitations on the present application. Ordinary technicians in this field can change, modify, replace and modify the above embodiments within the scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecasting system, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtain ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set; Determining a deviation value of the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system according to the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set; The climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system is determined according to the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The ocean climate data include: flow field, thermocline and mixed layer depth, and strait flow.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The determining of the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system according to the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set includes: Determine the difference between the flow field in the ocean climate state data within the preset time length simulated by the forecast system and the flow field in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set to obtain the flow field deviation value within the preset time length simulated by the forecast system; Determine the difference between the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain the deviation value of the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system; The difference between the strait flow in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the strait flow in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set is determined to obtain the strait flow deviation value within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that Determining the climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system according to the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system includes: Based on the expert scoring method, the weight of the flow field, the weight of the depth of the thermocline and mixed layer, and the weight of the channel flow are determined respectively; The climatic state simulation capability value of the forecasting system is determined according to the weight of each climatic state data, the flow field deviation value, the thermocline and mixing layer depth deviation value and the strait flow deviation value.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that The calculation formula of the climate simulation capability value of the forecast system is as follows: Where A is the climate simulation capability of the forecast system, a1 is the weight of the flow field, l is the flow field deviation value, L is the flow field value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set, a2 is the weight of the thermocline and mixed layer depth, w is the deviation value of the thermocline and mixed layer depth, W is the thermocline and mixed layer depth value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set, a3 is the weight of the strait flow, f is the strait flow deviation value, and F is the strait flow value in the pre-constructed ocean climate data set.

6. A system for determining the climate state simulation capability of a forecast system, characterized in that: The system comprises: An acquisition module is used to acquire ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set; A first determination module is used to determine the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system according to the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and a pre-constructed ocean climate state data set; The second determination module is used to determine the climate state simulation capability value of the forecast system according to the deviation value of the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

7. The system according to claim 6, characterized in that The ocean climate data include: flow field, thermocline and mixed layer depth, and strait flow.

8. The system according to claim 7, characterized in that The first determining module includes: A first determination unit is used to determine the difference between the flow field in the ocean climate state data within a preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the flow field in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain a flow field deviation value within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system; A second determination unit is used to determine the difference between the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain a deviation value of the depth of the thermocline and the mixed layer within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system; The third determination unit is used to determine the difference between the strait flow in the ocean climate state data within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system and the strait flow in the pre-constructed ocean climate state data set, and obtain the strait flow deviation value within the preset time period simulated by the forecast system.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: A memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the program, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 5 is implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the program is executed by a processor, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 5 is implemented.

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