Airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division method and device

Abstract

The invention provides an airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division method and device, and the method comprises the steps: calculating the collaboration degree of an airport supply and demand compound system according to a predefined demand index and a supply index in the airport supply and demand compound system; fitting the collaboration degree of the airport supply and demand compound system by using a time-phased logistic model to obtain the maximum environment capacity and the collaboration degree fitting value of the collaboration evolution of the airport supply and demand compound system; calculating the saturation degree of co-evolution of the airport supply-demand compound system according to the fitting value of the co-evolution degree of the airport supply-demand compound system and the maximum environmental capacity of co-evolution of the airport supply-demand compound system; and dividing the co-evolution stage of the airport supply-demand composite system according to the saturation degree of the co-evolution of the airport supply-demand composite system to obtain an airport supply-demand co-evolution stage division result. According to the method, accurate division of the airport supply and demand co-evolution stage can be realized through accurate fitting of the collaboration degree of the airport supply and demand composite system, and the problem of unbalanced sustainable development of the airport can be solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a method and a device for dividing airport supply and demand co-evolution stages, and belongs to the technical field of machine learning and data analysis. Background Art

[0002] With the rapid development of the civil aviation industry, while airports promote trade exchanges and economic prosperity, the air pollution and noise pollution caused by their operation also pose a huge threat to the environment. The root cause of these problems is that the limited supply of airport development cannot meet the sustainable development needs of air transportation. Therefore, solving the imbalance of airport sustainable development from the perspective of supply and demand has become an urgent problem to be solved.

[0003] In-depth research on the supply and demand theory of airports in the process of sustainable development and their interaction, analysis of the coordinated process of airport supply and demand and division of its evolution stages are one of the important means to solve the problem of unbalanced sustainable development of airports. However, most of the current research on the supply and demand relationship of airports focuses on airport terminal area traffic management, and research on the supply and demand relationship of airports based on sustainable development is still vacant.

[0004] At present, there are some stage division methods based on traditional logistic models on the market, but this method has high requirements on the feasibility of airport data fitting, and the division results are relatively simple, which cannot characterize the time period, multi-parameter and dynamic evolution characteristics of the airport supply and demand complex system. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the impact of the dynamic cycle of the co-evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system and study a more suitable co-evolution stage division method. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and device for dividing the stages of airport supply and demand co-evolution, which can accurately divide the stages of airport supply and demand co-evolution by accurately fitting the synergy of the airport supply and demand composite system through an improved time-segmented logistic model, and is conducive to solving the problem of unbalanced sustainable development of airports.

[0006] In order to achieve the above purpose / solve the above technical problems, the present invention is implemented by adopting the following technical solutions:

[0007] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for dividing airport supply and demand co-evolution stages, comprising:

[0008] According to the predefined demand index and supply index in the airport supply and demand complex system, the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system is calculated;

[0009] The time-divided logistic model is used to fit the coordination degree of the airport supply-demand complex system, and the fitting value of the coordination degree of the airport supply-demand complex system and the maximum environmental capacity of its coordinated evolution are obtained.

[0010] According to the synergy fitting value of the airport supply-demand complex system and the maximum environmental capacity of its co-evolution, the saturation of the co-evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system is calculated.

[0011] According to the saturation of the co-evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system, the co-evolution stages of the airport supply and demand complex system are divided, and the results of the airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division are obtained.

[0012] In combination with the first aspect, further, the calculation of the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand composite system according to the predefined demand index and supply index in the airport supply and demand composite system includes:

[0013] According to the predefined demand index and supply index in the airport supply and demand complex system, the order degree of the airport supply subsystem and the airport demand subsystem are calculated respectively. The calculation formula is as follows: ; ; in, is the order degree of the airport demand subsystem in year t, is the orderliness of the airport supply subsystem in year t, For the The entropy weight of a demand indicator, For the Year The standard value of the demand indicator, is the entropy weight of the ith supply indicator, For the The standard value of the supply indicator in year i, , n is the total number of demand indicators, , h is the total number of supply indicators, t represents the year, and m is the total number of years;

[0014] According to the orderliness of the airport supply subsystem and the airport demand subsystem, the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system is calculated. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0015] ;

[0016] in, represents the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system in year t, is the order degree change rate of the airport demand subsystem in year t, is the order degree change rate of the airport supply subsystem in year t, , are the weights of the subsystem order and the subsystem order change rate in affecting the overall coordinated development level of the airport supply and demand complex system, is the discrimination coefficient.

[0017] Combined with the first aspect, further, the entropy weight of the demand index or supply index is calculated by the entropy weight method. Entropy weight of demand indicators The calculation formula is as follows:

[0018] ;

[0019] Among them, k is the weight coefficient, , For the Year The characteristic weight of each demand indicator, ;

[0020] No. Year Standard value of demand index The calculation formula is as follows:

[0021] ;

[0022] in, For the Year The original value of the demand indicator, For the Year The maximum value of the original value of the demand index, For the Year The minimum value of the original value of the demand indicator.

[0023] In combination with the first aspect, further, the method for constructing a time-divided logistic model includes:

[0024] Divide the airport supply-demand co-evolution process into multiple time periods on an annual basis;

[0025] In the period T ∈ [ t , t + 1 ] The evolution curve of the airport supply and demand complex system is expressed as:

[0026] SD dt = r 1 SD ( t )[ 1 − SD ( t ) K t + 1 ] ;

[0027] Among them, SD is the degree of coordination, is the intrinsic growth rate, is the maximum environmental capacity in time period T, where t represents the year;

[0028] The rate of change of the synergy of the computer field supply and demand complex system in time period T:

[0029] Δ SD t + 1 = r 1 averSD t + 1 [ 1 − averSD t + 1 K t + 1 ] ;

[0030] in, The coordination degree of airport supply and demand complex system The change value in time period T, The coordination degree of airport supply and demand complex system The average value over time period T;

[0031] ;

[0032] ;

[0033] in, It represents the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system in year t+1.

[0034] Combined with the first aspect, further, the iterative formula of the maximum environmental capacity of the airport supply and demand complex system co-evolution is obtained according to the time-divided logistic model:

[0035] ;

[0036] Since the maximum environmental capacity is always a positive number, we have .

[0037] Combined with the first aspect, the time-divided logistic model is further used to fit the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system, and the fitting value of the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system and the maximum environmental capacity of its coordinated evolution are obtained, including:

[0038] Integrate the time-divided logistic model to obtain the time-divided superimposed logistic model:

[0039] ;

[0040] Given an estimate of the intrinsic growth rate ,according to Get the maximum environmental capacity estimate for each period ;

[0041] The intrinsic growth rate estimate and the estimated maximum environmental capacity Substituting into the logistic model with time-phase superposition, we get the estimated value of synergy ;

[0042] According to the estimated value of , calculate the sum of squares of the variance of the estimated value of the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system in m years:

[0043] ;

[0044] Sum of squared variance The decreasing direction changes the intrinsic growth rate estimate , until No longer decreases, the corresponding intrinsic growth rate estimate is This is the intrinsic growth rate required for the coordinated evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system. ;

[0045] According to the intrinsic growth rate The maximum environmental capacity of the coordinated evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system in each year is calculated, and the maximum environmental capacity is substituted into the logistic model with time period superposition to obtain the fitting value of the coordination degree of the airport supply-demand complex system.

[0046] In combination with the first aspect, further, the calculation formula of the saturation of the coordinated evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is as follows:

[0047] ;

[0048] in, represents the saturation of the co-evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system in year t+1, represents the synergy fitting value of the airport supply and demand complex system in year t+1, It represents the maximum environmental capacity of the co-evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system in year t+1.

[0049] In combination with the first aspect, further, the airport supply and demand composite system collaborative evolution stages are divided according to the saturation of the airport supply and demand composite system collaborative evolution, and the airport supply and demand collaborative evolution stage division results are obtained, including:

[0050] When the saturation is in the interval [0,20%), the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the formation stage; when the saturation is in the interval [20%,60%), the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the growth stage; when the saturation is in the interval [60%,90%), the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the maturity stage; when the saturation is greater than 90%, the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the decline or renewal stage.

[0051] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a device for dividing airport supply and demand co-evolution stages, comprising:

[0052] A coordination degree calculation module is used to calculate the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system according to the predefined demand index and supply index in the airport supply and demand complex system;

[0053] The synergy fitting module is used to fit the synergy of the airport supply and demand complex system using the time-divided logistic model to obtain the synergy fitting value of the airport supply and demand complex system and the maximum environmental capacity of its synergy evolution;

[0054] The saturation calculation module is used to calculate the saturation of the airport supply and demand complex system co-evolution according to the airport supply and demand complex system co-evolution fitting value and the maximum environmental capacity of the co-evolution;

[0055] The stage division module is used to divide the airport supply and demand co-evolution stages according to the saturation of the airport supply and demand co-evolution system, and obtain the airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division results.

[0056] In a third aspect, the present invention provides a computer program product, comprising a computer program / instruction, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for dividing the stages of the collaborative evolution of supply and demand of airports described in the first aspect.

[0057] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0058] The present invention proposes a method and device for dividing the stages of airport supply and demand co-evolution. Based on the improved time-divided logistic model, the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand composite system is fitted, and the evolution process of the airport maximum environmental capacity and the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand composite system is analyzed, so as to divide the airport supply and demand co-evolution stages. The method of the present invention is more feasible, and the stage division results are detailed, which can provide favorable support for the designation of airport sustainable development measures and solve the problem of unbalanced sustainable development of airports.

[0059] The invention considers the maximum environmental capacity of the airport as a time variable on the basis of the traditional logistic model, constructs a time-divided logistic model, combines the idea of ​​differentiation to derive the iterative formula of the maximum environmental capacity of the co-evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system, and calculates the maximum environmental capacity of the airport in each year by fitting, thereby achieving a more accurate fitting of the coordination degree of the airport supply-demand complex system. The invention divides the stages of the co-evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system based on saturation, fills the technical gap in the stage division of the multi-period co-evolution process, and realizes a more accurate and complete co-evolution stage division function. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0060] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the steps of a method for dividing the airport supply and demand co-evolution stages proposed by the present invention;

[0061] Figure 2 The figure shows a schematic diagram of the co-evolution stage of the supply-demand composite system in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0062] Figure 3 The figure shows the development trend of the orderliness of the supply and demand subsystem and the coordination degree of the supply and demand composite system of a certain airport sustainable development in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0063] Figure 4 The figure shows a schematic diagram of the coordination degree fitting of a sustainable development supply and demand composite system of an airport in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0064] Figure 5 Shown is a schematic structural diagram of an airport supply-demand co-evolution stage division device proposed by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0065] The technical solution of the present invention is described in detail below through the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be understood that the embodiments of the present invention and the specific features in the embodiments are detailed descriptions of the technical solution of the present invention, rather than limitations on the technical solution of the present invention. The embodiments of the present invention and the technical features in the embodiments may be combined with each other unless there is a conflict.

[0066] Example 1

[0067] This embodiment introduces a method for dividing the stages of airport supply and demand co-evolution, such as Figure 1 As shown, the specific steps include:

[0068] Step A: Calculate the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system according to the predefined demand index and supply index in the airport supply and demand complex system.

[0069] In the present invention, the airport supply and demand complex system includes the airport supply subsystem and the airport demand subsystem. The airport supply subsystem includes the runway and taxiway management system, the terminal management system, the information management system, the ground service system, etc. The airport demand system includes the passenger service system, the airline operation system, the air traffic management system, etc. It is an indicator to measure the level of co-evolution between the airport supply subsystem and the demand subsystem. Its calculation formula is as follows:

[0070] (1)

[0071] in, represents the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system in year t, , are the weights of the subsystem order and the subsystem order change rate in affecting the overall coordinated development level of the airport supply and demand complex system, is the order degree of the airport demand subsystem in year t, The orderliness of the airport supply subsystem in year t; is the order degree change rate of the airport demand subsystem in year t, is the order degree change rate of the airport supply subsystem in year t; is the discriminant coefficient. When the development directions of the two subsystems are opposite or one of the subsystems is in a stagnant state, the product of the order degree change rates of the two subsystems is less than or equal to 0, and the synergistic effect is weakened. is 0; on the contrary, when the development directions of the two subsystems are the same, the product of the order change rates of the two subsystems is greater than 0, and the synergistic effect is enhanced. is 1.

[0072] The order degree change rate is the difference between the order degree of the subsystem in the current year and the previous year, that is, , , unless there are special circumstances and Take 0.5.

[0073] In the embodiment of the present invention, the order degree of the airport demand subsystem is calculated using a linear weighting method according to the demand index and supply index of the airport supply and demand complex system. and the orderliness of the airport supply subsystem According to different evaluation criteria, demand indicators include economic, environmental, operational and social aspects. In terms of economy, demand indicators include total asset turnover rate, pre-tax profit rate, operating income, operating cost, etc. In terms of environment, demand indicators include annual carbon dioxide emissions, annual CO emissions, annual average unit passenger comprehensive water consumption, noise, etc. In terms of operation, demand indicators include annual passenger throughput, annual cargo and mail throughput, annual flight take-offs and landings, etc. In terms of society, demand indicators include airport employment, passenger satisfaction, complaint rate, etc. Supply indicators include supply pressure, supply status and supply response based on PSR (Pressure-State-Response) model. In terms of supply pressure, supply indicators include urban population density, urban per capita GDP, urbanization rate, unit passenger increase and energy consumption, etc. In terms of supply status, supply indicators include airport runway capacity, normal release increase rate, unit GDP energy consumption reduction, per passenger energy consumption reduction rate, etc. In terms of supply response, supply indicators include urban aviation transportation investment, environmental protection investment, airport green space area, airport per capita profit contribution, etc. The values ​​of demand indicators and supply indicators can be set manually according to actual conditions or directly obtained from systems such as the airport supply and demand complex system.

[0074] Orderliness of Airport Demand Subsystem and the orderliness of the airport supply subsystem The calculation method is basically the same. In the embodiment of the present invention, the order degree of the airport demand subsystem is As an example, the expression is as follows:

[0075] (2)

[0076] in, For the The entropy weight of a demand indicator, For the Year The standard value of the demand indicator, , n is the total number of demand indicators, t represents the year, and m is the total number of years.

[0077] Determined by the entropy weight method, the specific formula is as follows:

[0078] (3)

[0079] Among them, k is the weight coefficient, , For the Year The characteristic weight of each demand indicator, .

[0080] The calculation formula is as follows:

[0081] (4)

[0082] in, For the Year The original value of a demand indicator, when When it can produce positive effects or benefits for the airport, As the efficiency indicator, When resources need to be invested or consumption occurs, Cost-based indicators, such as operating income, which is a benefit-based indicator, and operating costs, which are cost-based indicators; For the Year The maximum value of the original value of the demand index, For the Year The minimum value of the original value of the demand indicator.

[0083] like is a benefit-type indicator, then the orderliness of the airport demand subsystem increases with its value, and the airport's sustainable development capacity improves accordingly: If it is a cost-type indicator, the orderliness of the airport demand subsystem decreases as its value increases, and the airport's sustainable development capacity decreases accordingly.

[0084] Step B: In order to adapt to the time-divided, multi-parameter and dynamically compound logistic curve change characteristics presented in the collaborative evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system, the present invention improves the traditional logistic model and constructs a time-divided logistic model.

[0085] Based on the maximum environmental capacity being regarded as a time-related variable, the present invention divides the evolution process into several time periods on an annual basis. Then, the evolution curve of the airport supply-demand complex system can be approximately regarded as the logistic curves of each section connected together, and in a very small time period, T ∈ [ t , t + 1 ] The traditional logistic model satisfies the maximum environmental capacity as a constant.

[0086] In the period T, the evolution curve of the airport supply and demand complex system can be expressed as:

[0087] SD dt = r 1 SD ( t )[ 1 − SD ( t ) K t + 1 ] (5)

[0088] Among them, SD is the degree of coordination, is the intrinsic growth rate, is the maximum environmental capacity in time period T.

[0089] Due to the coordination degree of airport supply and demand complex system In the period T ∈ [ t , t + 1 ] The curvature of the evolution curve (logistic curve) on the time period does not change much, and can be approximately reflected as the slope of the straight line connecting the end points of the time period, then:

[0090] Δ SD t + 1 = r 1 averSD t + 1 [ 1 − averSD t + 1 K t + 1 ] (6)

[0091] in, The coordination degree of airport supply and demand complex system In the period T ∈ [ t , t + 1 ] The change in value, The coordination degree of airport supply and demand complex system In the period T ∈ [ t , t + 1 ] The average value on .

[0092] (7)

[0093] (8)

[0094] in, It represents the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system in year t+1.

[0095] According to the above time-divided logistic model (Formulas (5), (6), (7), (8)), the iterative formula for the maximum environmental capacity of the airport supply-demand complex system co-evolution can be obtained as follows:

[0096] (9)

[0097] According to formula (9), since the maximum environmental capacity is always a positive number, we have .

[0098] Step C: Use the time-divided logistic model to fit the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system, and obtain the maximum environmental capacity and coordination degree fitting value of the coordinated evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system.

[0099] Step C01, integrate the time-divided logistic model to obtain the time-divided superimposed logistic model, the expression is as follows:

[0100] (10)

[0101] Step C02: Given the intrinsic growth rate An estimated value of ,according to Get the maximum environmental capacity in each period Estimated value of .

[0102] Step C03: Estimated intrinsic growth rate and the estimated maximum environmental capacity Substituting into the logistic model with time-phase superposition, we get the estimated value of synergy .

[0103] Step C04: Estimated value based on the coordination degree , calculate the sum of squares of the variance of the estimated value of the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system in the observation year:

[0104] (11)

[0105] Step C05, repeat steps C02 to C04, and continue to calculate the sum of squared variances. The decreasing direction changes the intrinsic growth rate estimate , until No longer decreases, the corresponding intrinsic growth rate estimate is This is the intrinsic growth rate required for the coordinated evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system. .

[0106] Step C06: Intrinsic growth rate obtained in step C05 , substitute into formula (9) to calculate the maximum environmental capacity of the coordinated evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system in each year, and then substitute the maximum environmental capacity into the time-phase superimposed logistic model (formula (10)) to obtain the fitting value of the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system.

[0107] Step D: Calculate the saturation of the airport supply and demand complex system's coordinated evolution based on the fitting value of the airport supply and demand complex system's coordinated evolution and the maximum environmental capacity of its coordinated evolution:

[0108] (12)

[0109] in, It represents the saturation of the co-evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system in year t+1.

[0110] Step E: dividing the coordinated evolution stages of the airport supply and demand complex system according to the saturation of the coordinated evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system, and obtaining the results of the division of the airport supply and demand coordinated evolution stages.

[0111] By dividing the evolution stages of airport supply and demand systems, we can identify the key nodes and important trends in the evolution of airport supply and demand complex systems, so as to analyze the characteristics and challenges of airports at each stage in a targeted manner, allocate resources more effectively, solve the problem of unbalanced sustainable development of airports from the perspective of supply and demand, and promote further sustainable development of airports.

[0112] When the saturation is in the interval [0,20%), the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the formation stage; when the saturation is in the interval [20%,60%), the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the growth stage; when the saturation is in the interval [60%,90%), the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the maturity stage; when the saturation is greater than 90%, the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the decline or renewal stage.

[0113] The airport supply and demand complex system in different stages of co-evolution is as follows: Figure 2 As shown, the horizontal axis is time, the vertical axis is the maximum environmental capacity, and the horizontal axis is Represent different time periods, i.e. different stages of co-evolution, and the vertical axis The time periods The maximum environmental capacity corresponding to the airport supply and demand complex system.

[0114] The present invention takes the data of a certain airport as an example to provide the actual application process of the method of the present invention:

[0115] As shown in Tables 1 and 2, the indicator system of the supply and demand subsystem of an airport and its entropy weight calculation results are shown. The data of the entropy weight results are derived from the annual data of the airport and its region from 2008 to 2019.

[0116] Table 1

[0117]

[0118] Table 2

[0119]

[0120] MATLAB is used to calculate the order of the airport supply and demand subsystem in each year, and the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand composite system in each year is further calculated based on the entropy weight linear weighting method, and its development trend is plotted. Figure 3 shown.

[0121] According to the calculation results of the synergy degree of the airport's sustainable development supply and demand composite system in each year, the time-divided logistic model is used to fit it. The fitting curve is shown in the figure below. Figure 4 shown.

[0122] According to the fitting results of the time-divided logistic model, the maximum environmental capacity of the co-evolution of the airport's supply-demand complex system in each year was iterated, and the saturation of the co-evolution of the airport's supply-demand complex system in each year was further calculated. The co-evolution process of the airport's supply-demand complex system was divided into stages, as shown in Table 3.

[0123] Table 3

[0124]

[0125] According to the calculation results in Table 3, combined with Figure 2 From the schematic diagram of the co-evolution stages of the supply-demand complex system shown, it can be seen that the co-evolution of the airport's supply-demand complex system was in the decline / renewal stage most of the time, and was in the mature stage in 2012 and 2016-2017.

[0126] Example 2

[0127] Based on the same inventive concept as Example 1, this example introduces a device for dividing the stages of airport supply and demand co-evolution, such as Figure 5 As shown, it includes a synergy calculation module, a synergy fitting module, a saturation calculation module and a stage division module.

[0128] The coordination degree calculation module is used to calculate the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system according to the predefined demand indicators and supply indicators in the airport supply and demand complex system.

[0129] The synergy fitting module is used to fit the synergy of the airport supply and demand complex system using the time-divided logistic model, and obtain the maximum environmental capacity and synergy fitting value of the coordinated evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system.

[0130] The saturation calculation module is used to calculate the saturation of the coordinated evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system based on the fitting value of the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system and the maximum environmental capacity of its coordinated evolution.

[0131] The stage division module is used to divide the airport supply and demand co-evolution stages according to the saturation of the airport supply and demand co-evolution system, and obtain the airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division results.

[0132] The specific functional implementation of each of the above modules can be found in the relevant contents of the method in Example 1 and will not be elaborated here.

[0133] Example 3

[0134] Based on the same inventive concept as other embodiments, this embodiment introduces a computer program product, including a computer program / instruction, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division method introduced in Embodiment 1.

[0135] In summary, the present invention fits the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system based on the improved time-segment logistic model, analyzes the evolution process of the airport's maximum environmental capacity and the coordination degree of the airport's supply and demand complex system, and thus divides the airport's supply and demand coordination evolution stages. The method of the present invention is more feasible, and the stage division results are detailed, which can provide favorable support for the designation of airport sustainable development measures and solve the problem of unbalanced airport sustainable development.

[0136] On the basis of the traditional logistic model, the present invention considers the maximum environmental capacity of the airport as a time variable, constructs a time-divided logistic model, combines the idea of ​​differentiation to derive the iterative formula of the maximum environmental capacity of the coordinated evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system, and calculates the maximum environmental capacity of the airport in each year through fitting, thus achieving a more accurate fitting of the coordination degree of the airport supply-demand complex system.

[0137] Based on the construction of a logistic model with superposition of time periods, the present invention defines a method for calculating the saturation of the co-evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system, and divides the stages of the co-evolution of the supply-demand complex system based on saturation, filling the technical gap in the stage division of the multi-period co-evolution process, and evaluates the airport co-evolution stage, thereby providing feasible suggestions for the sustainable development of the airport.

[0138] It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0139] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0140] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0141] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0142] The embodiments of the present invention are described above in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, but the present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned specific implementation methods. The above-mentioned specific implementation methods are merely illustrative and not restrictive. Under the enlightenment of the present invention, ordinary technicians in this field can also make many forms without departing from the scope of protection of the purpose of the present invention and the claims, which all fall within the protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for dividing the stages of airport supply and demand co-evolution, characterized in that: include: According to the predefined demand index and supply index in the airport supply and demand complex system, the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system is calculated; The time-divided logistic model is used to fit the coordination degree of the airport supply-demand complex system, and the fitting value of the coordination degree of the airport supply-demand complex system and the maximum environmental capacity of its coordinated evolution are obtained. According to the synergy fitting value of the airport supply-demand complex system and the maximum environmental capacity of its co-evolution, the saturation of the co-evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system is calculated. According to the saturation of the co-evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system, the co-evolution stages of the airport supply and demand complex system are divided, and the results of the airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division are obtained.

2. The airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculation of the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand composite system according to the predefined demand index and supply index in the airport supply and demand composite system includes: According to the predefined demand index and supply index in the airport supply and demand complex system, the order degree of the airport supply subsystem and the airport demand subsystem are calculated respectively. The calculation formula is as follows: ； ； in, is the order degree of the airport demand subsystem in year t, is the orderliness of the airport supply subsystem in year t, For the The entropy weight of a demand indicator, For the Year The standard value of the demand indicator, is the entropy weight of the ith supply indicator, For the The standard value of the supply indicator in year i, , n is the total number of demand indicators, , h is the total number of supply indicators, t represents the year, and m is the total number of years; According to the orderliness of the airport supply subsystem and the airport demand subsystem, the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system is calculated. The calculation formula is as follows: ； in, represents the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system in year t, is the order degree change rate of the airport demand subsystem in year t, is the order degree change rate of the airport supply subsystem in year t, , are the weights of the subsystem order and the subsystem order change rate in affecting the overall coordinated development level of the airport supply and demand complex system, is the discrimination coefficient.

3. The airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division method according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The entropy weight of the demand index or supply index is calculated by the entropy weight method. Entropy weight of demand indicators The calculation formula is as follows: ； Among them, k is the weight coefficient, , For the Year The characteristic weight of each demand indicator, ; No. Year Standard value of demand index The calculation formula is as follows: ； in, For the Year The original value of the demand indicator, For the Year The maximum value of the original value of the demand index, For the Year The minimum value of the original value of the demand indicator.

4. The airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The methods for constructing time-division logistic models include: Divide the airport supply-demand co-evolution process into multiple time periods on an annual basis; In the period The evolution curve of the airport supply and demand complex system is expressed as: ； Among them, SD is the degree of coordination, represents the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system in year t, is the intrinsic growth rate, is the maximum environmental capacity in time period T, where t represents the year; The rate of change of the synergy of the computer field supply and demand complex system in time period T: ； in, The coordination degree of airport supply and demand complex system The change value in time period T, The coordination degree of airport supply and demand complex system The average value over time period T; ； ； in, It represents the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system in year t+1.

5. The airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division method according to claim 4 is characterized in that: According to the time-divided logistic model, the iterative formula for the maximum environmental capacity of the airport supply-demand complex system co-evolution is obtained: ； Since the maximum environmental capacity is always a positive number, we have .

6. The airport supply-demand co-evolution stage division method according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The time-divided logistic model is used to fit the coordination degree of the airport supply-demand composite system, and the fitting value of the coordination degree of the airport supply-demand composite system and the maximum environmental capacity of its coordinated evolution are obtained, including: Integrate the time-divided logistic model to obtain the time-divided superimposed logistic model: ； Given an estimate of the intrinsic growth rate ,according to Get the maximum environmental capacity estimate for each period ; The intrinsic growth rate estimate and the estimated maximum environmental capacity Substituting into the logistic model with time-phase superposition, we get the estimated value of synergy ; According to the estimated value of , calculate the sum of squares of the variance of the estimated value of the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system in m years: ； Sum of squared variance The decreasing direction changes the intrinsic growth rate estimate , until the sum of squared variance No longer decreases, the corresponding intrinsic growth rate estimate is This is the intrinsic growth rate required for the coordinated evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system. ; According to the intrinsic growth rate The maximum environmental capacity of the coordinated evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system in each year is calculated, and the maximum environmental capacity is substituted into the logistic model with time period superposition to obtain the fitting value of the coordination degree of the airport supply-demand complex system.

7. The airport supply-demand co-evolution stage division method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculation formula of the saturation of the airport supply and demand complex system co-evolution is as follows: ； in, represents the saturation of the co-evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system in year t+1, represents the synergy fitting value of the airport supply and demand complex system in year t+1, It represents the maximum environmental capacity of the co-evolution of the airport supply-demand complex system in year t+1.

8. The airport supply-demand co-evolution stage division method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The airport supply and demand composite system co-evolution stages are divided according to the saturation of the airport supply and demand composite system co-evolution, and the airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division results are obtained, including: When the saturation is in the interval [0,20%), the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the formation stage; when the saturation is in the interval [20%,60%), the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the growth stage; when the saturation is in the interval [60%,90%), the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the maturity stage; when the saturation is greater than 90%, the evolution of the airport supply and demand complex system is in the decline or renewal stage.

9. An airport supply-demand co-evolution stage division device, characterized in that: include: A coordination degree calculation module is used to calculate the coordination degree of the airport supply and demand complex system according to the predefined demand index and supply index in the airport supply and demand complex system; The synergy fitting module is used to fit the synergy of the airport supply and demand complex system using the time-divided logistic model to obtain the synergy fitting value of the airport supply and demand complex system and the maximum environmental capacity of its synergy evolution; The saturation calculation module is used to calculate the saturation of the airport supply and demand complex system co-evolution according to the airport supply and demand complex system co-evolution fitting value and the maximum environmental capacity of the co-evolution; The stage division module is used to divide the airport supply and demand co-evolution stages according to the saturation of the airport supply and demand co-evolution system, and obtain the airport supply and demand co-evolution stage division results.

10. A computer program product comprising a computer program / instructions, characterized in that When the computer program / instructions are executed by a processor, the steps of the method for dividing the stages of the coordinated evolution of supply and demand of an airport as described in any one of claims 1-8 are implemented.

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