Method and device for determining acceptable risk standard of oil and gas pipeline
By determining the acceptable risk standards for oil and gas pipelines based on the mortality rate and working hours proportion based on historical data, the problem of lack of reasonable risk standards in the oil and gas pipeline field is solved, providing scientific risk management basis, and improving the accuracy and safety of risk decisions are improved. sex.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202310829596.5
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2023-07-07
- Publication Date
- 2025-01-07
AI Technical Summary
The lack of reasonable acceptable risk standards in the oil and gas pipeline field has led to errors in risk management and decision-making, affecting safety and efficiency.
By determining individual acceptable risk standards based on the mortality rate of the oil industry and the proportion of working hours in historical data, we will then determine the acceptable and tolerant risk lines in the F-N curve, and formulate oil and gas pipelines in combination with socially acceptable risk standards. acceptable risk criteria.
It provides scientific and reasonable risk management basis, helps to formulate reasonable risk decisions, reduces wrong decision-making behaviors in risk management, and improves the accuracy of risk management and evaluation in the oil and gas pipeline field.
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Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of oil and gas pipelines, and in particular to a method and device for determining acceptable risk standards for oil and gas pipelines. Background Art
[0002] At present, the evaluation standard of risk management in my country has not been established, which limits the application and development of risk management. Reasonable acceptable risk standard is one of the key issues of risk assessment and an important basis for quantitative risk assessment. When formulating acceptable risk standard, once the determined standard value exceeds the actual acceptable risk value, it will directly lead to wrong decision-making by managers and cause a series of serious consequences.
[0003] Among the relevant technologies, a set of reasonable and feasible acceptable risk standards has not yet been formulated in the field of oil and gas pipeline technology, and it is extremely necessary to control the risk within a certain range, which can provide a basis for risk management and risk decision-making in the field of oil and gas pipelines and provide reference criteria for risk assessment. Summary of the invention
[0004] In view of this, the present application provides a method and device for determining acceptable risk standards for oil and gas pipelines, which can provide a basis for risk management and risk decision-making in the field of oil and gas pipelines and provide a reference criterion for risk assessment.
[0005] Specifically, the following technical solutions are included:
[0006] On the one hand, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for determining an acceptable risk standard for an oil and gas pipeline, the method comprising:
[0007] Determine the individual acceptable risk standard based on the annual oil industry mortality rate in historical data and the proportion of oil industry employees working each year;
[0008] Based on the personal acceptable risk standard, determine the acceptable risk line and the tolerable risk line in the FN curve;
[0009] Based on the acceptable risk line and tolerable risk line in the FN curve, determine the socially acceptable risk standard;
[0010] Based on the individual acceptable risk standard and the social acceptable risk standard, an acceptable risk standard for the oil and gas pipeline is determined.
[0011] In some embodiments, the determination of an individual acceptable risk standard based on the annual mortality rate of the petroleum industry and the annual working time ratio of petroleum practitioners in historical data includes:
[0012] Based on the mortality rate of the petroleum industry in each year in the preset time period in the historical materials, determining the median mortality rate in the preset time period;
[0013] Based on the median mortality rate in the preset time period and the proportion of working time of petroleum practitioners each year, an acceptable risk benchmark value for individuals in the preset time period is obtained;
[0014] The personal acceptable risk standard is obtained based on the personal acceptable risk benchmark value within the preset time period.
[0015] In some embodiments, the personal acceptable risk baseline value within the preset time period is obtained according to the following calculation formula:
[0016]
[0017] Where: AIR represents the individual acceptable risk benchmark value within the preset time period, R represents the median mortality rate within the preset time period, It represents the proportion of working time of oil practitioners each year.
[0018] In some embodiments, obtaining the personal acceptable risk standard based on the personal acceptable risk baseline value within the preset time period includes:
[0019] The product of the personal acceptable risk baseline value within the preset time period and the first preset value is used as the lower limit of the personal acceptable risk;
[0020] The product of the personal acceptable risk baseline value within the preset time period and the second preset value is used as the upper limit of the personal acceptable risk;
[0021] The personal acceptable risk standard is obtained based on the upper limit of the personal acceptable risk and the lower limit of the personal acceptable risk.
[0022] In some embodiments, determining the acceptable risk line and the tolerable risk line in the FN curve based on the personal acceptable risk standard includes:
[0023] Based on the individual acceptable risk criteria, determining an acceptable risk line in the FN curve;
[0024] Based on the acceptable risk line in the FN curve and the preset order of magnitude, the tolerable risk line in the FN curve is determined.
[0025] On the other hand, an embodiment of the present application further provides a device for determining an acceptable risk standard of an oil and gas pipeline, the device comprising:
[0026] The individual risk determination module is used to determine the individual acceptable risk standard based on the annual mortality rate of the oil industry and the annual working time proportion of oil practitioners in historical data;
[0027] A risk line determination module, used to determine an acceptable risk line and a tolerable risk line in the FN curve based on the individual acceptable risk standard;
[0028] A social risk determination module is used to determine the socially acceptable risk standard based on the acceptable risk line and the tolerable risk line in the FN curve;
[0029] The oil and gas pipeline risk determination module is used to determine the acceptable risk standard of the oil and gas pipeline based on the individual acceptable risk standard and the social acceptable risk standard.
[0030] In some embodiments, the personal risk determination module specifically includes:
[0031] A median determination submodule, for determining the median of the mortality rate in the preset time period based on the mortality rate of the petroleum industry in each year in the preset time period in the historical material;
[0032] A submodule for obtaining a benchmark value is used to obtain an acceptable risk benchmark value for an individual within a preset time period based on the median mortality rate within the preset time period and the proportion of the annual working time of petroleum practitioners;
[0033] The personal risk obtaining submodule is used to obtain the personal acceptable risk standard based on the personal acceptable risk benchmark value within the preset time period.
[0034] In some embodiments, the personal acceptable risk baseline value within the preset time period is obtained according to the following calculation formula:
[0035]
[0036] Where: AIR represents the individual acceptable risk benchmark value within the preset time period, R represents the median mortality rate within the preset time period, It represents the proportion of working time of oil practitioners each year.
[0037] In some embodiments, the personal risk obtaining submodule specifically includes:
[0038] A lower limit determination unit, used to take the product of the personal acceptable risk reference value and the first preset value within the preset time period as the lower limit of the personal acceptable risk;
[0039] An upper limit determination unit, used to take the product of the personal acceptable risk baseline value and the second preset value within the preset time period as the upper limit of the personal acceptable risk;
[0040] The personal risk obtaining unit is used to obtain the personal acceptable risk standard based on the upper limit of the personal acceptable risk and the lower limit of the personal acceptable risk.
[0041] In some embodiments, the risk line determination module includes:
[0042] An acceptable risk line determination submodule, used to determine an acceptable risk line in the FN curve based on the individual acceptable risk standard;
[0043] The tolerable risk line determination submodule is used to determine the tolerable risk line in the FN curve based on the acceptable risk line and a preset order of magnitude in the FN curve.
[0044] The method for determining the acceptable risk standard of oil and gas pipelines provided in the embodiment of the present application can determine the individual acceptable risk standard by using the annual mortality rate of the oil industry in a preset time period in historical data and the annual working time ratio of oil practitioners, and then based on the individual acceptable risk standard, the social acceptable risk standard can be obtained, and the individual acceptable risk standard and the social acceptable risk standard can jointly determine the acceptable risk standard of oil and gas pipelines. The determination of the acceptable risk standard of oil and gas pipelines can provide a basis for risk management and risk decision-making in the field of oil and gas pipelines and provide a reference criterion for risk evaluation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0045] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application, the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.
[0046] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for determining an acceptable risk standard for an oil and gas pipeline provided in an embodiment of the present application;
[0047] Figure 2 A flow chart of determining an individual acceptable risk standard in a method for determining an acceptable risk standard for an oil and gas pipeline provided in an embodiment of the present application based on the annual mortality rate of the oil industry and the annual working time ratio of oil practitioners in historical data;
[0048] Figure 3 A flow chart of obtaining an individual acceptable risk standard based on an individual acceptable risk reference value within a preset time period in a method for determining an acceptable risk standard for an oil and gas pipeline provided in an embodiment of the present application;
[0049] Figure 4A flow chart of determining an acceptable risk line and a tolerable risk line in an FN curve based on an individual acceptable risk standard in a method for determining an acceptable risk standard for an oil and gas pipeline provided in an embodiment of the present application;
[0050] Figure 5 The socially acceptable risk standard FN curve for the oil industry provided in the embodiment of the present application;
[0051] Figure 6 A structural block diagram of a device for determining acceptable risk standards for an oil and gas pipeline provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0052] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.
[0053] In order to make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the present application clearer, the implementation methods of the present application will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
[0054] The embodiments of the present application provide a method for determining acceptable risk standards for oil and gas pipelines, which can provide a basis for risk management and risk decision-making in the field of oil and gas pipelines and provide a reference criterion for risk assessment.
[0055] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for determining an acceptable risk standard for an oil and gas pipeline provided in an embodiment of the present application, see Figure 1 , the method comprises the following steps.
[0056] Step 101, based on the annual mortality rate of the oil industry and the annual working time ratio of oil practitioners in historical data, determine the individual acceptable risk standard.
[0057] The historical data may include the number of deaths in accidents in the country and the oil industry, the total population of the country, and the number of employees in the oil industry in the past 15 years. See Table 1 below for details.
[0058] Table 1 Summary of national and petroleum industry data
[0059]
[0060]
[0061] It is understandable that the mortality rate in the above table is the ratio of deaths to the total population.
[0062] In some embodiments, see Figure 2 , this step may specifically include the following sub-steps.
[0063] Step 1011, based on the mortality rate of the petroleum industry in each year in the preset time period in the historical materials, determine the median mortality rate in the preset time period.
[0064] Among them, in order to reflect the dynamic principle, the preset time period can be regarded as a development stage.
[0065] It is understandable that when there are extreme values distributed in a set of series, the method of using the median and mode as representatives of the statistical population sequence is more appropriate than other methods. The mode algorithm only considers the variable values that appear most frequently in the overall distribution, ignores the impact of extreme values, and cannot comprehensively consider situations involving the risk of loss of life caused by extreme events; the median can reflect the average of the benchmark values of the acceptable risk benchmark. By adopting the median calculation method, it can not only avoid the abnormal data of a certain year or even a few years from affecting the entire standard, but also maximize the stability of the data. Therefore, this application uses the median to calculate the individual acceptable risk standard.
[0066] In the embodiment of the present application, the preset time period may be 5 years, that is, this step is to determine the median mortality rate of the oil industry within 5 years.
[0067] For the calculation of the median, the mortality rate can be arranged in a series from small to large, where the series term is n. When the series term is an odd number, the first The item is the median; when the number of items in the sequence is even, the The median of the two corresponding items is the arithmetic mean.
[0068] In the embodiment of the present application, taking the data in Table 1 as an example, the median mortality rate in the petroleum industry from 2006 to 2010 was 2.91E-05, the median mortality rate in the petroleum industry from 2011 to 2015 was 1.37E-05, and the median mortality rate in the petroleum industry from 2016 to 2020 was 7.30E-06.
[0069] Step 1012, based on the median mortality rate in the preset time period and the annual working time ratio of petroleum practitioners, obtain an individual acceptable risk benchmark value in the preset time period.
[0070] The acceptable risk benchmark value for an individual within a preset time period is obtained according to the following calculation formula:
[0071]
[0072] In the formula: AIR represents the individual acceptable risk benchmark value within the preset time period, R represents the median mortality rate within the preset time period, It represents the proportion of working time of oil practitioners each year.
[0073] Here, the proportion of working time of oil practitioners per year can be calculated according to the following formula: :
[0074]
[0075] Where: t w It represents the actual working time of employees each year, t a It represents the total time of employees per year.
[0076] In the embodiment of the present application, according to 52 weeks per year and 8 working hours per day, it can be obtained that t w =2080h, t a = 8760h. In other words, the proportion of working time of oil workers in each year is The value of is 0.2374.
[0077] In the embodiment of the present application, based on the data in Table 1, the individual acceptable risk benchmark value every 5 years in the historical data can be calculated, as shown in Table 2 below.
[0078] Table 2 Individual acceptable risk benchmark values
[0079]
[0080] According to Table 2 above, the personal acceptable risk benchmark value for the petroleum industry from 2006 to 2010 was 1.23E-04, the personal acceptable risk benchmark value for the petroleum industry from 2011 to 2015 was 5.77E-05, and the personal acceptable risk benchmark value for the petroleum industry from 2016 to 2020 was 3.07E-05.
[0081] Step 1013, based on the personal acceptable risk baseline value within the preset time period, obtain the personal acceptable risk standard.
[0082] In the examples of this application, see Figure 3 , this step may specifically include the following sub-steps.
[0083] Step 10131, taking the product of the personal acceptable risk baseline value within the preset time period and the first preset value as the lower limit of the personal acceptable risk.
[0084] The first preset value can be This value can be an empirical value. Of course, the first preset value can also be other values, which will not be described in detail here.
[0085] In the embodiment of the present application, the calculation formula for the lower limit of the acceptable risk for an individual can be expressed as:
[0086]
[0087] Where: R 下 It represents the lower limit of an individual's acceptable risk, R 基 It represents the individual's acceptable risk benchmark value.
[0088] Step 10132: The product of the personal acceptable risk baseline value within the preset time period and the second preset value is used as the upper limit of the personal acceptable risk.
[0089] The second preset value may be the same as the first preset value, both of which are The second preset value may be an empirical value. Of course, the second preset value may also be other values, which will not be described in detail here.
[0090] In the embodiment of the present application, the calculation formula of the upper limit of the acceptable risk for an individual can be expressed as:
[0091]
[0092] Where: R 上 It represents the upper limit of an individual’s acceptable risk, R 基 It represents the individual's acceptable risk benchmark value.
[0093] Step 10133, based on the upper limit of personal acceptable risk and the lower limit of personal acceptable risk, obtain the personal acceptable risk standard.
[0094] Combining the upper limit and lower limit of personal acceptable risk, we can get a risk value range, which is the personal acceptable risk standard.
[0095] In the embodiment of the present application, based on the data in Table 2, the acceptable risk standard for individuals every 5 years in the historical data can be calculated, as shown in Table 3 below.
[0096] Table 3 Individual acceptable risk standards
[0097]
[0098] Step 102: Determine the acceptable risk line and the tolerable risk line in the FN curve based on the personal acceptable risk standard.
[0099] Among them, the FN curve method is a commonly used method for studying socially acceptable risk benchmarks at home and abroad, and its application is relatively mature.
[0100] In some embodiments, see Figure 4 , this step specifically includes the following sub-steps.
[0101] Step 1021, based on the personal acceptable risk standard, determine the acceptable risk line in the FN curve.
[0102] In the embodiment of the present application, the personal acceptable risk reference value can be used as the intersection point of the acceptable risk line and the vertical axis in the FN curve, and the slope of the acceptable risk line is defaulted to -1.
[0103] Taking the personal acceptable risk benchmark value of the oil industry from 2016 to 2020 in Table 3 as an example, the intersection of the acceptable risk line and the vertical axis can be 3E-05.
[0104] Step 1022: Determine a tolerable risk line in the FN curve based on the acceptable risk line in the FN curve and a preset order of magnitude.
[0105] In the embodiment of the present application, the preset order of magnitude may be 2. That is, when the intersection of the acceptable risk line and the vertical axis is 3E-05, based on the preset order of magnitude, the intersection of the tolerable risk line and the vertical axis may be 3E-03, which may be approximately 1E-03.
[0106] Step 103: Determine a socially acceptable risk standard based on the acceptable risk line and the tolerable risk line in the FN curve.
[0107] Among them, the socially acceptable risk standard is characterized by the area divided by the acceptable risk line and the tolerable risk line in the FN curve.
[0108] Figure 5 The FN curve of socially acceptable risk standards for the petroleum industry provided in the embodiment of the present application, wherein the number of deaths N is the horizontal axis and the cumulative probability of accidents F is the vertical axis. Figure 5 The area between the acceptable risk line and the tolerable risk line is the area of minimization, the area below the acceptable risk line is the acceptable area, and the area above the tolerable risk line is the unacceptable area. Among them, the area of minimization, also known as the ALARP area, belongs to the basic acceptable area, and the degree of acceptability needs to be further judged in combination with economic indicators. Therefore, Figure 5 In the paper, the acceptable zone and the minimized zone are used to characterize the socially acceptable risk standards.
[0109] In addition, see Figure 5When the FN curve is used to represent the socially acceptable risk standard, the curve will be truncated at N=1000, which means that when there is a risk of the number of deaths equal to or exceeding 1000, in principle, it is not accepted regardless of the probability of occurrence.
[0110] Step 104, based on the personal acceptable risk standard and the social acceptable risk standard, determine the acceptable risk standard of the oil and gas pipeline.
[0111] Through the individual acceptable risk standard and the social acceptable risk standard, the acceptable risk standard of oil and gas pipelines can be determined.
[0112] Therefore, the method for determining the acceptable risk standard of oil and gas pipelines provided in the embodiment of the present application can determine the individual acceptable risk standard by using the annual mortality rate of the oil industry in a preset time period in historical data and the annual working time ratio of oil practitioners, and then based on the individual acceptable risk standard, the social acceptable risk standard can be obtained, and the individual acceptable risk standard and the social acceptable risk standard can jointly determine the acceptable risk standard of oil and gas pipelines. The determination of the acceptable risk standard of oil and gas pipelines can provide a basis for risk management and risk decision-making in the field of oil and gas pipelines, and provide a reference criterion for risk evaluation.
[0113] On the other hand, the present application also provides a device for determining an acceptable risk standard for an oil and gas pipeline. Figure 6 , the device 600 comprises:
[0114] The individual risk determination module 601 is used to determine the individual acceptable risk standard based on the annual mortality rate of the oil industry and the annual working time ratio of oil practitioners in historical data;
[0115] The risk line determination module 602 is used to determine the acceptable risk line and the tolerable risk line in the FN curve based on the personal acceptable risk standard;
[0116] A social risk determination module 603, for determining a socially acceptable risk standard based on an acceptable risk line and a tolerable risk line in the FN curve;
[0117] The oil and gas pipeline risk determination module 604 is used to determine the acceptable risk standard of the oil and gas pipeline based on the personal acceptable risk standard and the social acceptable risk standard.
[0118] In some embodiments, the personal risk determination module specifically includes:
[0119] A median determination submodule, used to determine the median mortality rate within a preset time period based on the mortality rate of the petroleum industry in each year within the preset time period in historical materials;
[0120] The submodule for obtaining the benchmark value is used to obtain the individual acceptable risk benchmark value within the preset time period based on the median mortality rate within the preset time period and the proportion of the annual working time of the oil practitioners;
[0121] The personal risk obtaining submodule is used to obtain the personal acceptable risk standard based on the personal acceptable risk baseline value within a preset time period.
[0122] In some embodiments, the acceptable risk baseline value for an individual within a preset time period is obtained according to the following calculation formula:
[0123]
[0124] In the formula: AIR represents the individual acceptable risk benchmark value within the preset time period, R represents the median mortality rate within the preset time period, It represents the proportion of working time of oil practitioners each year.
[0125] In some embodiments, the personal risk obtaining submodule specifically includes:
[0126] A lower limit determination unit, used to take the product of the personal acceptable risk reference value and the first preset value within the preset time period as the lower limit of the personal acceptable risk;
[0127] An upper limit determination unit, used to take the product of the personal acceptable risk baseline value and the second preset value within the preset time period as the upper limit of the personal acceptable risk;
[0128] The personal risk obtaining unit is used to obtain a personal acceptable risk standard based on an upper limit of the personal acceptable risk and a lower limit of the personal acceptable risk.
[0129] In some embodiments, the risk line determination module includes:
[0130] An acceptable risk line determination submodule is used to determine the acceptable risk line in the FN curve based on the individual acceptable risk standard;
[0131] The tolerable risk line determination submodule is used to determine the tolerable risk line in the FN curve based on the acceptable risk line and a preset order of magnitude in the FN curve.
[0132] Therefore, the device for determining the acceptable risk standard of oil and gas pipelines provided in the embodiment of the present application can determine the individual acceptable risk standard by using the annual mortality rate of the oil industry in a preset time period in historical data and the annual working time ratio of oil practitioners, and then based on the individual acceptable risk standard, the social acceptable risk standard can be obtained, and the individual acceptable risk standard and the social acceptable risk standard can jointly determine the acceptable risk standard of oil and gas pipelines. The determination of the acceptable risk standard of oil and gas pipelines can provide a basis for risk management and risk decision-making in the field of oil and gas pipelines, and provide a reference criterion for risk evaluation.
[0133] In an exemplary embodiment, a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium is also provided, such as a memory including a program code, and the program code can be executed by a processor in an electronic device to complete the method for determining the acceptable risk standard of the oil and gas pipeline in the above embodiment. For example, the non-volatile computer-readable storage medium can be a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), a magnetic tape, a floppy disk, an optical data storage device, etc.
[0134] A person skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the steps of implementing the above embodiments can be completed by hardware or by instructing related hardware through a program. The above program can be stored in a computer non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. The above-mentioned storage medium can be a read-only memory, a disk or an optical disk, etc.
[0135] In the present application, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be understood as indicating or implying relative importance. The term "plurality" refers to two or more than two, unless otherwise clearly defined.
[0136] Those skilled in the art will readily appreciate other embodiments of the present application after considering the specification and practicing the present application disclosed herein. The present application is intended to cover any variations, uses or adaptations of the present application, which follow the general principles of the present application and include common knowledge or customary techniques in the art that are not disclosed in the present application. The specification and examples are intended to be exemplary only.
[0137] It should be understood that the present application is not limited to the precise structures that have been described above and shown in the drawings, and that various modifications and changes may be made without departing from the scope thereof. The scope of the present application is limited only by the appended claims.
Claims
1. A method for determining acceptable risk standards for oil and gas pipelines, characterized in that: The method comprises: Determine the individual acceptable risk standard based on the annual oil industry mortality rate in historical data and the proportion of oil industry employees working each year; Based on the personal acceptable risk standard, determine the acceptable risk line and the tolerable risk line in the FN curve; Based on the acceptable risk line and tolerable risk line in the FN curve, determine the socially acceptable risk standard; Based on the individual acceptable risk standard and the social acceptable risk standard, an acceptable risk standard for the oil and gas pipeline is determined.
2. The method for determining the acceptable risk standard of an oil and gas pipeline according to claim 1, characterized in that: Based on the annual mortality rate of the oil industry in historical data and the proportion of working time of oil practitioners each year, the individual acceptable risk standards are determined as follows: Based on the mortality rate of the petroleum industry in each year in the preset time period in the historical materials, determining the median mortality rate in the preset time period; Based on the median mortality rate in the preset time period and the proportion of working time of petroleum practitioners each year, an acceptable risk benchmark value for individuals in the preset time period is obtained; The personal acceptable risk standard is obtained based on the personal acceptable risk benchmark value within the preset time period.
3. The method for determining the acceptable risk standard of an oil and gas pipeline according to claim 2, characterized in that: The acceptable risk benchmark value for an individual within the preset time period is obtained according to the following calculation formula: Where: AIR represents the individual acceptable risk benchmark value within the preset time period, R represents the median mortality rate within the preset time period, It represents the proportion of working time of oil practitioners each year.
4. The method for determining the acceptable risk standard of an oil and gas pipeline according to claim 2, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the personal acceptable risk standard based on the personal acceptable risk benchmark value within the preset time period includes: The product of the personal acceptable risk baseline value within the preset time period and the first preset value is used as the lower limit of the personal acceptable risk; The product of the personal acceptable risk baseline value within the preset time period and the second preset value is used as the upper limit of the personal acceptable risk; The personal acceptable risk standard is obtained based on the upper limit of the personal acceptable risk and the lower limit of the personal acceptable risk.
5. The method for determining the acceptable risk standard of an oil and gas pipeline according to claim 1, characterized in that: Determining the acceptable risk line and the tolerable risk line in the FN curve based on the personal acceptable risk standard includes: Based on the individual acceptable risk criteria, determining an acceptable risk line in the FN curve; Based on the acceptable risk line in the FN curve and the preset order of magnitude, the tolerable risk line in the FN curve is determined.
6. A device for determining acceptable risk standards for oil and gas pipelines, characterized in that: The device comprises: The individual risk determination module is used to determine the individual acceptable risk standard based on the annual mortality rate of the oil industry and the annual working time proportion of oil practitioners in historical data; A risk line determination module, used to determine an acceptable risk line and a tolerable risk line in the FN curve based on the individual acceptable risk standard; A social risk determination module is used to determine the socially acceptable risk standard based on the acceptable risk line and the tolerable risk line in the FN curve; The oil and gas pipeline risk determination module is used to determine the acceptable risk standard of the oil and gas pipeline based on the individual acceptable risk standard and the social acceptable risk standard.
7. The device for determining the acceptable risk standard of an oil and gas pipeline according to claim 6, characterized in that: The personal risk determination module specifically includes: A median determination submodule, for determining the median of the mortality rate in the preset time period based on the mortality rate of the petroleum industry in each year in the preset time period in the historical material; A submodule for obtaining a benchmark value is used to obtain an acceptable risk benchmark value for an individual within a preset time period based on the median mortality rate within the preset time period and the proportion of the annual working time of petroleum practitioners; The personal risk obtaining submodule is used to obtain the personal acceptable risk standard based on the personal acceptable risk baseline value within the preset time period.
8. The device for determining the acceptable risk standard of an oil and gas pipeline according to claim 7, characterized in that: The acceptable risk benchmark value for an individual within the preset time period is obtained according to the following calculation formula: Where: AIR represents the individual acceptable risk benchmark value within the preset time period, R represents the median mortality rate within the preset time period, It represents the proportion of working time of oil practitioners each year.
9. The device for determining the acceptable risk standard of an oil and gas pipeline according to claim 7, characterized in that: The personal risk obtaining submodule specifically includes: A lower limit determination unit, configured to use the product of the personal acceptable risk reference value and the first preset value within the preset time period as the lower limit of the personal acceptable risk; An upper limit determination unit, used to take the product of the personal acceptable risk baseline value and the second preset value within the preset time period as the upper limit of the personal acceptable risk; The personal risk obtaining unit is used to obtain the personal acceptable risk standard based on the upper limit of the personal acceptable risk and the lower limit of the personal acceptable risk.
10. The device for determining the acceptable risk standard of an oil and gas pipeline according to claim 1, characterized in that: The risk line determination module includes: An acceptable risk line determination submodule, used to determine an acceptable risk line in the FN curve based on the individual acceptable risk standard; The tolerable risk line determination submodule is used to determine the tolerable risk line in the FN curve based on the acceptable risk line and a preset order of magnitude in the FN curve.