Method for evaluating toughness of social economic system under drought stress

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of natural disasters, and discloses a method for evaluating the toughness of a social economic system under drought stress. The method comprises the following steps: collecting monthly rainfall data and potential evapotranspiration data in a region, and calculating a meteorological drought index SPEI under the scale of three months; collecting social and economic data such as runoff data, crop evapotranspiration, industrial added value, population and the like of the region, estimating the available water amount of the region and the water demand in three aspects of agriculture, industry and life, and calculating a social and economic drought index; extracting the recovery time of the historical social economic drought event; calculating the cumulative intensity of meteorological drought during the historical social economic drought event; and fitting the drought recovery time and the accumulated drought intensity, and constructing a toughness curve of the social economic system under drought stress. According to the technical scheme, the drought toughness of the social economic system can be objectively and quantitatively evaluated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of natural disasters, and specifically relates to a method for assessing the resilience of a socio-economic system under drought stress. Background Art

[0002] Drought disasters are the most frequent, longest-lasting and most extensive meteorological disasters in the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report pointed out that as the trend of global warming becomes increasingly severe, the frequency of extreme climate events such as droughts continues to increase, and the degree of damage is becoming more serious. Drought events have become one of the main natural disasters affecting people's production and life, and have had a profound impact on a wide range of regions. How to accurately assess the ability of a region's socio-economic system to cope with drought has important theoretical and practical significance for drought risk assessment and early warning.

[0003] Drought resilience has become an important entry point for explaining the system's response to drought. Drought resilience refers to the ability of a system to reduce the impact of water shortage on system functions and quickly restore normal functions when facing drought events. At present, research on drought resilience mainly focuses on ecosystems, agricultural systems, water resources systems, etc. Researchers simulate the impact of drought events, evaluate the resilience level of the system, and propose corresponding adaptation strategies. However, drought events not only affect natural systems, but also have serious impacts on socio-economic systems. At present, research on the resilience of socio-economic systems under drought stress is relatively lacking.

[0004] In addition, most existing disaster resilience studies use a multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation method, in which the selection of indicators and the determination of weights are subjective. Moreover, this method lacks the support of physical mechanisms and is difficult to objectively and quantitatively describe the resilience of social and economic systems in different regions under drought stress.

[0005] Therefore, it is an urgent problem to provide a method to assess the resilience of socio-economic systems under drought stress in order to quantitatively and objectively evaluate the resilience of socio-economic systems under drought stress. Summary of the invention

[0006] In view of the above technical problems, the present invention provides a method for assessing the resilience of a socio-economic system under drought stress, the method comprising the following steps:

[0007] Step 1: Collect monthly rainfall data and potential evapotranspiration data in the region and calculate the meteorological drought index SPEI on a three-month scale;

[0008] Step 2: Collect regional socioeconomic data, estimate regional water availability and water requirements for agriculture, industry, and life, and calculate the socioeconomic drought index;

[0009] Step 3, extract drought recovery time of historical socioeconomic drought events;

[0010] Step 4, calculate the cumulative drought intensity of meteorological drought during historical socioeconomic drought events;

[0011] Step 5: Fit drought recovery time and cumulative drought intensity to construct the resilience curve of the socio-economic system under drought stress.

[0012] Specifically, step 1 includes:

[0013] Step 11, calculate the difference between the cumulative precipitation and the cumulative potential evapotranspiration on a three-month scale, perform normal distribution fitting on the difference, and obtain the probability density function of the difference;

[0014] Step 12: Convert the probability density function into a standard normal distribution to obtain a meteorological drought index SPEI on a three-month scale, where the value range of the meteorological drought index SPEI is from negative infinity to positive infinity, a positive value indicates moisture, and a negative value indicates drought.

[0015] Specifically, the socio-economic data include runoff data, crop reference evapotranspiration, industrial added value and population.

[0016] Specifically, step 2 includes:

[0017] Step 21, the runoff data includes surface runoff and underground runoff, and the available water volume of the region is the sum of the surface runoff and underground runoff;

[0018] Step 22: Use crop reference evapotranspiration and single crop coefficient method to estimate agricultural water demand, take the product of industrial added value and water consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial added value as industrial water demand, and take the product of population and per capita water quota as domestic water demand;

[0019] Step 23: Calculate the difference between the water supply and water demand in the region each month. The calculation formula is:

[0020] Q WSDD =Q s -Q d ,

[0021] Among them, Q WSDD is the water volume difference, Q s is the water supply, Q d is the water requirement;

[0022] Step 24: Use the three-parameter Log-Logistic distribution to calculate Q WSDD Perform fitting and find the cumulative function F(x);

[0023] Step 25: Perform normal standardization on the cumulative function to obtain the socioeconomic drought index, which is calculated as follows:

[0024]

[0025] Among them, I SWSDI is the socioeconomic drought index, W is the probability weighted distance, C0, C1, C2, d1, d2 and d3 are parameter weight coefficients, when P≤0.5, P=F(x), when P>0.5, P=1-F(x).

[0026] Specifically, step 3 includes:

[0027] Step 31, setting a preset threshold for the occurrence of socioeconomic drought according to the classification standard of the standardized drought index;

[0028] Step 32: Based on a preset threshold, the run theory is used to extract the number, start time and drought duration of historical socioeconomic drought events from the time series of the socioeconomic drought index, wherein the drought duration is the drought recovery time.

[0029] Specifically, the preset threshold is -1.

[0030] Specifically, in step 4, the cumulative drought intensity of any historical socio-economic drought event is the sum of the meteorological drought index SPEI on a 3-month scale within the starting time of any historical socio-economic drought event.

[0031] Specifically, in step 5, the drought recovery time of historical socio-economic drought events is used as the horizontal coordinate, and the cumulative drought intensity of meteorological drought is used as the vertical coordinate. The curve obtained by fitting multiple sample points is defined as the resilience curve of the regional socio-economic system under drought stress.

[0032] The present invention discloses a method for assessing socioeconomic drought resilience under drought stress, constructs a socioeconomic drought index SWDSI from the perspective of water supply and demand of agriculture, industry and life in the socioeconomic system, and uses the index and run theory to determine regional historical socioeconomic drought events and their drought recovery time, and then constructs a drought resilience curve of the socioeconomic system based on the socioeconomic drought recovery time and the corresponding meteorological drought cumulative intensity. The drought resilience curve of the socioeconomic system constructed by the present invention is constructed based on meteorological monitoring data, socioeconomic statistical data and a standardized drought index calculation method, and has the advantages of reliability, objectivity and quantitative analysis, and can provide reliable and powerful support for drought risk assessment, prevention and control, and even early warning and forecasting. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0033] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on the provided drawings without paying creative work.

[0034] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for assessing the resilience of a socio-economic system under drought stress according to the present invention;

[0035] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the first resilience curve of the social and economic systems of various prefectures and cities in Yunnan Province under drought stress in the present invention;

[0036] Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of the second resilience curve of the social and economic systems of various prefectures and cities in Yunnan Province under drought stress in the present invention;

[0037] Figure 4 It is a schematic diagram of the first resilience curve of the socio-economic system of each county in Chuxiong Prefecture under drought stress in the present invention;

[0038] Figure 5 It is a schematic diagram of the second resilience curve of the socio-economic system of each county in Chuxiong Prefecture under drought stress in the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0039] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. Obviously, the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative work belong to the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0040] It should be noted that if there are descriptions involving "first", "second", etc. in the embodiments of the present invention, the descriptions of "first", "second", etc. are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be understood as indicating or implying their relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of the indicated technical features. Therefore, the features defined as "first" and "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one of the features. In addition, the technical solutions between the various embodiments can be combined with each other, but they must be based on the ability of ordinary technicians in the field to implement them. When the combination of technical solutions is contradictory or cannot be implemented, it should be deemed that such a combination of technical solutions does not exist and is not within the scope of protection required by the present invention.

[0041] Figure 1FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of a method for assessing the resilience of a socio-economic system under drought stress provided by the present invention, and the flow chart specifically includes the following steps:

[0042] Step 1: Collect monthly rainfall data and potential evapotranspiration data in the region and calculate the meteorological drought index SPEI on a three-month scale.

[0043] Specifically, step 1 includes:

[0044] Step 11: Calculate the difference between the cumulative precipitation and the cumulative potential evapotranspiration on a three-month scale, fit the difference with a normal distribution, and obtain the probability density function of the difference.

[0045] Step 12: Convert the probability density function into a standard normal distribution to obtain a meteorological drought index SPEI on a three-month scale, where the value range of the meteorological drought index SPEI is from negative infinity to positive infinity, a positive value indicates moisture, and a negative value indicates drought.

[0046] When SPEI3 is less than -1, it is defined as drought.

[0047] Step 2: Collect regional socioeconomic data, estimate regional available water and water requirements for agriculture, industry, and life, and calculate the socioeconomic drought index.

[0048] Specifically, the socio-economic data include runoff data, crop reference evapotranspiration, industrial added value and population.

[0049] In addition to runoff data, crop reference evapotranspiration, industrial added value and population, other data can also be used to represent the socio-economic data, as long as they can be used to calculate the socio-economic drought index.

[0050] Specifically, step 2 includes:

[0051] Step 21: Runoff data includes surface runoff and groundwater runoff. The available water volume of a region is the sum of surface runoff and groundwater runoff.

[0052] Step 22: Use crop reference evapotranspiration and single crop coefficient method to estimate agricultural water demand, take the product of industrial added value and water consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial added value as industrial water demand, and take the product of population and per capita water quota as domestic water demand.

[0053] Step 23: Calculate the difference between the water supply and water demand in the region each month. The calculation formula is:

[0054] Q WSDD =Q s -Q d ,

[0055] Among them, QWSDD is the water volume difference, Q s is the water supply, Q d For water demand.

[0056] Step 24: Use the three-parameter Log-Logistic distribution to calculate Q WSDD Perform fitting and find the cumulative function F(x).

[0057] Step 25: Perform normal standardization on the cumulative function to obtain the socioeconomic drought index, which is calculated as follows:

[0058]

[0059] Among them, I SWSDI is the socioeconomic drought index, W is the probability weighted distance, C0, C1, C2, d1, d2 and d3 are parameter weight coefficients, when P≤0.5, P=F(x), when P>0.5, P=1-F(x).

[0060] Illustratively, C0=2.515517, C1=0.802853, C2=0.010328, d1=1.432788, d2=0.189269, d3=0.001308.

[0061] For example, agricultural water demand is estimated using the Penman-Monteith formula and the single crop coefficient method, where the Penman-Monteith formula is:

[0062]

[0063] Among them, ET0 is the reference evapotranspiration, mm / day; R n is the net radiation on the crop surface, MJ / (m2 day); G is the soil heat flux, MJ / (m2 day); T is the daily average temperature at a height of 2 meters, ℃; u2 is the wind speed at a height of 2 meters, m / s; e s is the saturated water vapor pressure, kPa; e a is the actual water vapor pressure, kPa; e s -e a is the saturated water vapor pressure difference, kPa; Δ is the slope of the saturated water vapor pressure curve; r is the hygrometer constant, kPa / ℃.

[0064] The formula for calculating crop water requirement using the single crop coefficient method is:

[0065] ET=K c ET0,

[0066] Among them, ET0 is the reference evapotranspiration, K c is the comprehensive crop coefficient, and ET is the crop water requirement.

[0067] Step 3: Extract drought recovery time of historical socioeconomic drought events.

[0068] Specifically, step 3 includes:

[0069] Step 31: According to the classification standard of the standardized drought index, a preset threshold for the occurrence of socioeconomic drought is set.

[0070] Step 32: Based on a preset threshold, the run theory is used to extract the number, start time and drought duration of historical socioeconomic drought events from the time series of the socioeconomic drought index, wherein the drought duration is the drought recovery time.

[0071] Specifically, the preset threshold is -1.

[0072] For all historical socioeconomic drought events, the drought recovery time of each historical socioeconomic drought event is extracted separately.

[0073] Step 4: Calculate the cumulative drought intensity of meteorological drought during historical socioeconomic drought events.

[0074] Specifically, in step 4, the cumulative drought intensity of any historical socio-economic drought event is the sum of the meteorological drought index SPEI on a 3-month scale within the starting time of any historical socio-economic drought event.

[0075] For all historical socioeconomic drought events, the cumulative drought intensity of meteorological drought during each historical socioeconomic drought event was calculated separately.

[0076] Step 5: Fit drought recovery time and cumulative drought intensity to construct the resilience curve of the socio-economic system under drought stress.

[0077] Specifically, in step 5, the drought recovery time of historical socio-economic drought events is used as the horizontal coordinate, and the cumulative drought intensity of meteorological drought is used as the vertical coordinate. The curve obtained by fitting multiple sample points is defined as the resilience curve of the regional socio-economic system under drought stress.

[0078] The resilience curve shows the maximum drought intensity that the socio-economic system can accept to return to normal within a given recovery time. The resilience value is the area under the resilience curve. The calculation formula of the resilience value Res is as follows:

[0079]

[0080] Among them, F fun is the exponential relationship between drought intensity and recovery time, and t is the recovery time.

[0081] The study area of ​​this invention is Yunnan and Chuxiong Prefecture of Yunnan. The rainfall data comes from the China 1km resolution monthly precipitation dataset (1901-2023) of the National Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Science Data Center, and the potential evapotranspiration data comes from the China 1km monthly potential evapotranspiration dataset (1901-2023). The runoff data comes from the China Natural Runoff Grid Dataset CNRDv1.0 (1961-2018). The data required for the calculation of crop reference evapotranspiration comes from the site monitoring of the National Meteorological Center, and the relevant socio-economic data comes from the Yunnan Statistical Yearbook and Water Resources Bulletin.

[0082] The resilience curves of the socio-economic systems of various prefectures and cities in Yunnan Province under drought stress are shown in the figure below: Figure 2 and Figure 3 shown.

[0083] The resilience curves of the socio-economic systems of the counties and districts of Chuxiong Prefecture under drought stress are shown in the figure below: Figure 4 and Figure 5 shown.

[0084] It should be understood that, although each step in the flow chart of each embodiment of the present invention is shown in sequence according to the indication of the arrow, these steps are not necessarily performed in sequence according to the order indicated by the arrow. Unless there is a clear explanation in this article, the execution of these steps does not have a strict order restriction, and these steps can be performed in other orders. Moreover, at least a portion of the steps in each embodiment may include a plurality of sub-steps or a plurality of stages, and these sub-steps or stages are not necessarily performed at the same time, but can be performed at different times, and the execution order of these sub-steps or stages is not necessarily performed in sequence, but can be performed in turn or alternately with at least a portion of other steps or sub-steps or stages of other steps.

[0085] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a computer program. The above-mentioned program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. When the program is executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the above-mentioned methods. Among them, any reference to memory, storage, database or other media used in the embodiments provided in this application can include non-volatile and / or volatile memory. Non-volatile memory may include read-only memory (ROM), programmable ROM (PROM), electrically programmable ROM (EPROM), electrically erasable programmable ROM (EEPROM) or flash memory. Volatile memory may include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory. As an illustration and not limitation, RAM is available in various forms, such as static RAM (SRAM), dynamic RAM (DRAM), synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), double data rate SDRAM (DDRSDRAM), enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), synchronous link (Synchlink) DRAM (SLDRAM), memory bus (Rambus) direct RAM (RDRAM), direct memory bus dynamic RAM (DRDRAM), and memory bus dynamic RAM (RDRAM).

[0086] The above embodiments only express the preferred implementation mode of the present invention, and the description is relatively specific and detailed, but it cannot be understood as limiting the scope of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this field, several modifications and improvements can be made without departing from the concept of the present invention, which all belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the resilience of a socio-economic system under drought stress, characterized in that: The steps include: Step 1: Collect monthly rainfall data and potential evapotranspiration data in the region and calculate the meteorological drought index SPEI on a three-month scale; Step 2: Collect regional socioeconomic data, estimate regional water availability and water requirements for agriculture, industry, and life, and calculate the socioeconomic drought index; Step 3, extract drought recovery time of historical socioeconomic drought events; Step 4, calculating the cumulative drought intensity of meteorological drought during the historical socio-economic drought event; Step 5: Fit the drought recovery time and the cumulative drought intensity to construct a resilience curve of the socio-economic system under drought stress.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step 1 comprises: Step 11, calculating the difference between the cumulative precipitation and the cumulative potential evapotranspiration on a three-month scale, performing normal distribution fitting on the difference, and obtaining a probability density function of the difference; Step 12: convert the probability density function into a standard normal distribution to obtain the meteorological drought index SPEI on a three-month scale, wherein the value range of the meteorological drought index SPEI is from negative infinity to positive infinity, a positive value indicates moisture, and a negative value indicates drought.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The socio-economic data include runoff data, crop reference evapotranspiration, industrial added value and population.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The step 2 comprises: Step 21, the runoff data includes surface runoff and underground runoff, and the available water volume of the area is the sum of the surface runoff and the underground runoff; Step 22: using the crop reference evapotranspiration and the single crop coefficient method to estimate agricultural water demand, taking the product of the industrial added value and the water consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial added value as the industrial water demand, and taking the product of the population and the per capita water quota as the living water demand; Step 23: Calculate the difference between the water supply and water demand in the region each month. The calculation formula is: Q WSDD =Q s -Q d , Among them, Q WSDD is the water volume difference, Q s is the water supply, Q d is the water demand; Step 24: Use the three-parameter Log-Logistic distribution to calculate Q WSDD Perform fitting and find the cumulative function F(x); Step 25, performing normal standardization processing on the cumulative function to obtain the socio-economic drought index, the calculation formula is: Among them, I SWSDI is the socioeconomic drought index, W is the probability weighted distance, C0, C1, C2, d1, d2 and d3 are parameter weight coefficients, when P≤0.5, P=F(x), when P>0.5, P=1-F(x).

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step 3 comprises: Step 31, setting a preset threshold for the occurrence of socioeconomic drought according to the classification standard of the standardized drought index; Step 32: Based on the preset threshold, the run theory is used to extract the number, start time and drought duration of the historical socioeconomic drought events from the time series of the socioeconomic drought index, wherein the drought duration is the drought recovery time.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The preset threshold is -1.

7. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that In step 4, the cumulative drought intensity of any historical socio-economic drought event is the sum of the meteorological drought index SPEI on a 3-month scale within the starting time of any historical socio-economic drought event.

8. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that In step 5, the drought recovery time of the historical socio-economic drought event is used as the horizontal coordinate, and the cumulative drought intensity of the meteorological drought is used as the vertical coordinate. The curve obtained by fitting multiple sample points is defined as the resilience curve of the regional socio-economic system under drought stress.

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