Land utilization type carbon emission influence factor decomposition method

Abstract

The invention provides a land utilization type carbon emission influence factor decomposition method, and belongs to the technical field of carbon emission influence factor decomposition, and the method comprises the steps: determining factors influencing the land utilization type in a research region according to the data of a land research region, obtaining key influence factors, and calculating the carbon emission influence factors according to the key influence factors; obtaining related data of the key influence factors of each time period; constructing a land utilization type carbon emission influence factor decomposition model by using an improved Kara equation, and constructing each decomposed land utilization type carbon emission influence factor change model in combination with a logarithmic average Dirse index method; utilizing the land utilization type carbon emission influence factor decomposition model and the land utilization type carbon emission influence factor change model to obtain the action degree of decomposed influence factors on the land utilization carbon emission in each time period, and completing decomposition of the carbon emission influence factors; the problems that in the prior art, land utilization carbon emission influence factors are difficult to accurately recognize and quantify, and universality is not achieved are solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of decomposition of carbon emission influencing factors, and in particular relates to a method for decomposing carbon emission influencing factors of land use types. Background Art

[0002] The factors affecting carbon emissions from land use types are complex. Affected by land management and policy intervention, socioeconomic factors such as population, economic growth, urbanization process, and technological development play different roles in different land use types. How to accurately identify and quantify the impact of these factors is a difficult problem. In addition, the influencing factors of land use types at different spatial scales are also different, and the conclusions may be different. A model that performs well in a certain region or period may not be suitable for other regions or periods. How to improve the universality of the model and effectively calibrate the carbon emission impacts in different regions and time periods is also a technical problem. The existing technology has the following shortcomings: when constructing a decomposition model of factors affecting carbon emissions from land use types, it does not consider accurate identification and quantification of influencing factors, and cannot meet the universality requirements of the decomposition model. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of the above-mentioned deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a method for decomposing factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type, which solves the problem that the prior art is difficult to accurately identify and quantify the factors affecting carbon emissions by land use and is not universal.

[0004] In order to achieve the above purpose, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is: a method for decomposing factors affecting carbon emissions of land use types, comprising the following steps: S1. According to the survey data and literature data of the land study area, determine the factors affecting the land use type in the study area, obtain the key influencing factors, and obtain the relevant data of the key influencing factors in each period according to the preset time period based on the key influencing factors; S2. Use the improved Kaya equation to construct a decomposition model of carbon emission influencing factors of land use types, and combine the logarithmic mean Dirichlet index method to construct a change model of carbon emission influencing factors of each decomposed land use type; S3. Use the decomposition model of carbon emission influencing factors of land use type to decompose the relevant data of key influencing factors in each time period, and use the change model of carbon emission influencing factors of each decomposed land use type to obtain the degree of influence of the decomposed influencing factors on land use carbon emissions in each time period, and complete the decomposition of carbon emission influencing factors.

[0005] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: the present invention solves the problem that the existing technology is difficult to accurately identify and quantify the influencing factors of carbon emissions from land use and is not universal by constructing a decomposition model of the influencing factors of carbon emissions from land use types; while effectively decomposing the influencing factors of carbon emissions, the present invention improves the depth and breadth of the influencing factor analysis from the perspective of land use types by integrating multi-source data.

[0006] Further, the S2 comprises the following steps: S201. Using the improved Kaya equation, a decomposition model of factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type was constructed; S202. Constructing a calculation model for carbon emissions by land use type based on direct carbon emissions and indirect carbon emissions from land use; S203, according to the preset time period, using the calculation model of carbon emissions by land use type, calculate the total carbon emissions by land use type in the initial period and the total carbon emissions by land use type in the preset period; S204, using the difference between the total carbon emissions of land use types in the initial period and the total carbon emissions of land use types in the preset period, and combining the decomposition model of factors affecting carbon emissions of land use types, a total carbon emissions change model of land use types is constructed; S205. According to the total amount of carbon emission change model of land use type, the change of carbon emission influencing factors of decomposed land use type is obtained, and combined with the logarithmic mean Dirichlet index method, a change model of carbon emission influencing factors of each decomposed land use type is constructed.

[0007] Furthermore, the land use type carbon emission influencing factor decomposition model decomposes the key influencing factors into: land use carbon emission intensity factors, land use structure factors, land use efficiency factors, population size factors, economic efficiency factors and energy structure factors.

[0008] Furthermore, the expression of the decomposition model of the factors affecting carbon emissions of land use types is as follows: ; in, represents the total carbon emission of land use type, Indicates i Carbon emissions from land use Indicates i Planting land area, represents the total land area, represents energy consumption, represents the gross domestic product, represents the population of the region, represents the carbon emission intensity factor of land use, represents the land use structure factor, represents the land use efficiency factor, represents the economic efficiency factor, represents the energy structure factor, represents the population size factor, Indicates i Carbon emission intensity factors of land use types, Indicates i The land use structure factors of the land use types are represents the land use efficiency factor, represents the economic efficiency factor, represents the energy structure factor, Represents the population size factor.

[0009] Furthermore, the calculation model of carbon emissions of land use types is as follows: ; in, represents the total carbon emission of land use type, is the direct carbon emission from land use, represents indirect carbon emissions from land use; Indicates i The area of ​​land use type, Indicates i Carbon emission coefficient of land use type, Indicates j The consumption of fossil energy, Indicates j Standard coal conversion parameters for various fossil energy sources, Indicates j Carbon emission coefficient of fossil energy.

[0010] Furthermore, the expression of the total amount of carbon emission change model of land use type is as follows: ; in, represents the total carbon emission change of land use type, represents the total carbon emission of initial land use type, express t Total carbon emissions by land use type during the period, express t Period i Land use carbon emission intensity factors for cultivated land; express t Period i The factors that indicate the land use structure of the land; expresst Land use efficiency factors during the period; express t Economic efficiency factors of the period; express t Energy structure factors of the period, express t Population size factors during the period, Indicates the initial i Land use carbon emission intensity factors for cultivated land; Indicates the initial i The factors that indicate the land use structure of the land; represents the initial land use efficiency factor; represents the initial economic efficiency factor; represents the initial energy structure factor, represents the initial population size factor, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by the carbon emission intensity of land use types, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by land use structure, represents the change in carbon emissions caused by land use efficiency, Indicates the change in carbon emissions caused by economic efficiency, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by the energy structure, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by population size.

[0011] Furthermore, the expression of the change model of carbon emission influencing factors of each decomposed land use type is as follows: ; ; ; ; ; ; in, Represents a logarithmic function.

[0012] The beneficial effects of the above further scheme are as follows: in constructing the decomposition model of factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type, the present invention uses land type as a variable and uses the improved Kaya equation to improve the accuracy of the model; in constructing the change model of factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type, the logarithmic mean Dirichlet index method is used to enable the model to have the ability to process zero and negative data, thereby enhancing its applicability, so that the present invention can be adjusted according to the specific needs of the actual region, adapt to the characteristics of factors affecting carbon emissions by land use in different regions and different time periods, and improve the adaptability of the method of the present invention. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0013] Figure 1 The present invention is a flow chart of the method. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0014] The specific implementation modes of the present invention are described below so that those skilled in the art can understand the present invention. However, it should be clear that the present invention is not limited to the scope of the specific implementation modes. For those of ordinary skill in the art, as long as various changes are within the spirit and scope of the present invention as defined and determined by the attached claims, these changes are obvious, and all inventions and creations utilizing the concept of the present invention are protected.

[0015] Before describing this embodiment, the following terms are explained: Kaya equation: Kaya equation; LMDI method: Logarithmic mean Dirichlet index method.

[0016] Example like Figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a method for decomposing factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type, and the implementation method is as follows: S1. According to the survey data and literature data of the land study area, determine the factors affecting the land use type in the study area, obtain the key influencing factors, and obtain the relevant data of the key influencing factors for each period according to the preset time period based on the key influencing factors.

[0017] In this embodiment, based on the acquisition of land use remote sensing data, the preset time period is divided into 5 years. The factors affecting the land use type in the study area include: the number of permanent residents in the region over the years, GDP, energy consumption of various industries, land use type remote sensing data, carbon emission coefficient of each land type and carbon emission coefficient of each type of energy. The integration of multi-source data makes the present invention convenient for in-depth discussion in various land use scenarios.

[0018] S2. Use the improved Kaya equation to construct a decomposition model of carbon emission influencing factors of land use types, and combine it with the logarithmic mean Dirichlet index method to construct a change model of carbon emission influencing factors of each decomposed land use type. The specific steps are as follows: S201. Using the improved Kaya equation, a decomposition model of factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type was constructed; S202. Constructing a calculation model for carbon emissions by land use type based on direct carbon emissions and indirect carbon emissions from land use; S203, according to the preset time period, using the calculation model of carbon emissions by land use type, calculate the total carbon emissions by land use type in the initial period and the total carbon emissions by land use type in the preset period; S204, using the difference between the total carbon emissions of land use types in the initial period and the total carbon emissions of land use types in the preset period, and combining the decomposition model of factors affecting carbon emissions of land use types, a total carbon emissions change model of land use types is constructed; S205. According to the total amount of carbon emission change model of land use type, the change of carbon emission influencing factors of decomposed land use type is obtained, and combined with the logarithmic mean Dirichlet index method, a change model of carbon emission influencing factors of each decomposed land use type is constructed.

[0019] In this embodiment, a decomposition model of carbon emission influencing factors of land use type is constructed, which is decomposed into six influencing factors: land use carbon emission intensity influencing factors, land use structure influencing factors, land use efficiency influencing factors, population size influencing factors, economic efficiency influencing factors and energy structure influencing factors.

[0020] In this embodiment, the improved Kaya equation is used to decompose the carbon emission factors affecting the land use type, and a decomposition model of the factors affecting the carbon emission of land use type is constructed; the expression of the decomposition model of the factors affecting the carbon emission of land use type is as follows: ; ; in, represents the total carbon emission of land use type, Indicates i Carbon emissions from land use (this embodiment calculates carbon emissions according to the types of land, including cultivated land, forest land, grassland, water area, unused land and construction land), Indicates i land area (in this embodiment, the land area is divided into cultivated land, forest land, grassland, water area, unused land and construction land), represents the total land area, represents energy consumption, represents the gross domestic product, represents the population of the region, It represents the carbon emission intensity factor of land use, which is the carbon emission per unit area of ​​different land types; It represents the land use structure factor, which is the ratio of different land types to the total land area; It represents the land use efficiency factor, which is the ratio of unit economy to total land area; It represents the economic efficiency factor, which is the energy consumption per unit of GDP; It represents the energy structure factor, which is the ratio of energy consumption to permanent population; represents the population size factor, which is the permanent population, Indicates i Carbon emission intensity factors of land use types, Indicates i The land use structure factors of the land use types are represents the land use efficiency factor, represents the economic efficiency factor, represents the energy structure factor, represents the population size factor; Using direct carbon emissions and indirect carbon emissions from land use, a calculation model for carbon emissions by land use type is constructed; the calculation model for carbon emissions by land use type is as follows: ; in, represents the total carbon emission of land use type, is the direct carbon emission from land use, Indicates indirect carbon emissions from land use; the land use types for direct carbon emissions from land use include: cultivated land, forest land, grassland, water area and unused land; the land use type for indirect carbon emissions from land use is construction land, and fossil energy is consumed by construction land; in the calculation of direct carbon emissions from land use: Indicates i The area of ​​land use type, Indicates i Carbon emission coefficient of land use type, in the calculation of indirect carbon emissions from land use: Indicates j The consumption of fossil energy, Indicates j Standard coal conversion parameters for various fossil energy sources, Indicates j Carbon emission coefficients of various fossil energy sources, where fossil energy is divided into the following seven types: raw coal, coke, crude oil, diesel, fuel oil, heat and electricity; According to the survey data and literature data of the land study area, combined with the land use type, the land use direct carbon emission coefficient table shown in Table 1 is obtained. It can be known that the land use direct carbon emission coefficient ; Combined with the fossil energy type, the standard coal conversion parameters and carbon emission coefficient table of fossil energy consumption related to indirect carbon emissions from land use are obtained as shown in Table 2. It can be known that the standard coal conversion parameters of fossil energy are and carbon emission coefficient of fossil energy .

[0021] Table 1

[0022] Table 2

[0023] In this embodiment, the decomposition model of land use type carbon emission influencing factors is constructed mainly by using the preset period t For the difference in the initial carbon emission changes, a land use type carbon emission change total amount model is constructed; the expression of the land use type carbon emission change total amount model is as follows: ; in, represents the total carbon emission change of land use type, represents the total carbon emission of initial land use type, express t Total carbon emissions by land use type during the period, express t Period i Land use carbon emission intensity factors for cultivated land; express t Period i The factors that indicate the land use structure of the land; express t Land use efficiency factors during the period; express t Economic efficiency factors of the period; express t Energy structure factors of the period, express t Population size factors during the period, Indicates the initial i Land use carbon emission intensity factors for cultivated land; Indicates the initial i The factors that indicate the land use structure of the land; represents the initial land use efficiency factor; represents the initial economic efficiency factor; represents the initial energy structure factor, represents the initial population size factor, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by the carbon emission intensity of land use types, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by land use structure, represents the change in carbon emissions caused by land use efficiency, Indicates the change in carbon emissions caused by economic efficiency, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by the energy structure, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by population size; According to the constructed land use type carbon emission influencing factor decomposition model, the constructed land use type carbon emission influencing factors are quantified in combination with the LMDI model, and the influence of land use carbon emission intensity influencing factors, land use structure factors, land use efficiency factors, population size factors, energy structure factors and economic efficiency factors on land use carbon emission changes are obtained; the expressions of the decomposed six land use type carbon emission influencing factor change models are as follows: ; ; ; ; ; ; in, express t Period i The carbon emission intensity factor of land use in cropland is Indicates the initial i The carbon emission intensity factor of land use in cropland is express t Period i Land use structure factors of cultivated land, Indicates the initial i Land use structure factors of cultivated land, express t Land use efficiency factors during the period, represents the initial land use efficiency factor, express t Economic efficiency factors of the period, represents the initial economic efficiency factor, express t Energy structure factors of the period, represents the initial energy structure factor, express t Population size factors during the period, Represents the initial population size factor.

[0024] S3. Use the decomposition model of carbon emission influencing factors of land use type to decompose the relevant data of key influencing factors in each time period, and use the change model of carbon emission influencing factors of each decomposed land use type to obtain the degree of influence of the decomposed influencing factors on land use carbon emissions in each time period, and complete the decomposition of carbon emission influencing factors.

[0025] In this embodiment, the relevant data of the key influencing factors obtained are substituted into the constructed land use type carbon emission influencing factor decomposition model, and the land use carbon emission influencing factors are decomposed into: land use carbon emission intensity factor, land use structure factor, land use efficiency factor, population size factor, energy structure factor and economic efficiency factor through the decomposition model; and the change model of each decomposed land use type carbon emission influencing factor is used to calculate the change of each decomposition factor, and the degree of influence of land use carbon emission intensity factor, land use structure factor, land use efficiency factor, population size factor, energy structure factor and economic efficiency factor on regional land use carbon emissions is analyzed according to the calculation results to obtain the decomposition result of land use type carbon emission influencing factors.

[0026] In this embodiment, the factors affecting carbon emissions of land use types in Henan Province are decomposed to obtain the decomposition results shown in Table 3. Table 3 is the decomposition results of the factors affecting carbon emissions of land use types in Henan Province in different time periods.

[0027] Table 3

[0028] In this embodiment, among the influencing factors, if the contribution value is greater than zero, it promotes land use carbon emissions; otherwise, if the contribution value is less than zero, it inhibits land use carbon emissions. It can be seen from Table 1 that land use carbon emission intensity factors, land use structure factors and land use efficiency factors inhibit land use carbon emissions, while economic efficiency factors, energy structure factors and population size factors promote land use carbon emissions. Targeted policy recommendations can be put forward based on regional actual conditions.

Claims

1. A method for decomposing factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S1. According to the survey data and literature data of the land study area, determine the factors affecting the land use type in the study area, obtain the key influencing factors, and obtain the relevant data of the key influencing factors in each period according to the preset time period based on the key influencing factors; S2. Use the improved Kaya equation to construct a decomposition model of carbon emission influencing factors of land use types, and combine the logarithmic mean Dirichlet index method to construct a change model of carbon emission influencing factors of each decomposed land use type; S3. Use the decomposition model of carbon emission influencing factors of land use type to decompose the relevant data of key influencing factors in each time period, and use the change model of carbon emission influencing factors of each decomposed land use type to obtain the degree of influence of the decomposed influencing factors on land use carbon emissions in each time period, and complete the decomposition of carbon emission influencing factors.

2. The method for decomposing factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type according to claim 1, characterized in that: The S2 comprises the following steps: S201. Using the improved Kaya equation, a decomposition model of factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type was constructed; S202. Constructing a calculation model for carbon emissions by land use type based on direct carbon emissions and indirect carbon emissions from land use; S203, according to the preset time period, using the calculation model of carbon emissions by land use type, calculate the total carbon emissions of the initial land use type and the total carbon emissions of the land use type in the preset period; S204, using the difference between the total carbon emissions of land use types in the initial period and the total carbon emissions of land use types in the preset period, and combining the decomposition model of factors affecting carbon emissions of land use types, a total carbon emissions change model of land use types is constructed; S205. According to the total amount of carbon emission change model of land use type, the change of carbon emission influencing factors of decomposed land use type is obtained, and combined with the logarithmic mean Dirichlet index method, a change model of carbon emission influencing factors of each decomposed land use type is constructed.

3. The method for decomposing factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type according to claim 2, characterized in that: The land use type carbon emission influencing factor decomposition model decomposes the key influencing factors into: land use carbon emission intensity factors, land use structure factors, land use efficiency factors, population size factors, economic efficiency factors and energy structure factors.

4. The method for decomposing factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type according to claim 3, characterized in that: The expression of the decomposition model of factors affecting carbon emissions of land use types is as follows: in, represents the total carbon emission of land use type, Indicates i Carbon emissions from land use, Indicates i Planting land area, represents the total land area, represents energy consumption, represents the gross domestic product, represents the population of the region, represents the carbon emission intensity factor of land use, represents the land use structure factor, represents the land use efficiency factor, represents the economic efficiency factor, represents the energy structure factor, represents the population size factor, Indicates i Carbon emission intensity factors of land use types, Indicates i The land use structure factors of the land use types are represents the land use efficiency factor, represents the economic efficiency factor, represents the energy structure factor, Represents the population size factor.

5. The method for decomposing factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type according to claim 4, characterized in that: The calculation model of carbon emissions of the land use type is as follows: in, represents the total carbon emission of land use type, is the direct carbon emission from land use, represents indirect carbon emissions from land use; Indicates i The area of ​​each land use type, Indicates i Carbon emission coefficient of land use type, Indicates j The consumption of fossil energy, Indicates j Standard coal conversion parameters for various fossil energy sources, Indicates j Carbon emission coefficient of fossil energy.

6. The method for decomposing factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type according to claim 5, characterized in that: The expression of the total carbon emission change model of land use type is as follows: in, represents the total carbon emission change of land use type, represents the total carbon emission of initial land use type, express t Total carbon emissions by land use type during the period, express t Period i Land use carbon emission intensity factors for cultivated land; express t Period i The factors that indicate the land use structure of the land; express t Land use efficiency factors during the period; express t Economic efficiency factors of the period; express t Energy structure factors of the period, express t Population size factors during the period, Indicates the initial i Land use carbon emission intensity factors for cultivated land; Indicates the initial i The factors that indicate the land use structure of the land; represents the initial land use efficiency factor; represents the initial economic efficiency factor; represents the initial energy structure factor, represents the initial population size factor, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by the carbon emission intensity of land use types, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by land use structure, represents the change in carbon emissions caused by land use efficiency, Indicates the change in carbon emissions caused by economic efficiency, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by the energy structure, Indicates the changes in carbon emissions caused by population size.

7. The method for decomposing factors affecting carbon emissions by land use type according to claim 6, characterized in that: The expression of the change model of carbon emission influencing factors of each decomposed land use type is as follows: in, Represents a logarithmic function.

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