Method and device for analyzing influence of policy on economy based on CGE model

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a method and device for analyzing the influence of policies on economy based on a CGE model, and the method comprises the steps: setting model parameters of the CGE model and the policy scene of each region in a domestic region set through constructing the CGE model and a solving equation set of the CGE model; and according to the model parameters and the policy scenario of each region in the domestic region set, solving the equation set through the CGE model to obtain the economic condition of the target region. Quantitative evaluation of regional economic and environmental benefits by green power development of a target region is realized, and comprehensive benefits of power structure adjustment, carbon emission reduction target realization and industrial optimization and upgrading under different policy scenarios can be accurately quantified, so that an enterprise is assisted in accurately identifying a green power value; and the government is assisted to scientifically formulate policies for promoting industrial green development and economic structure transformation.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The embodiments of the present application relate to the technical field of environmental economics, and in particular to a method and device for analyzing the impact of policies on the economy based on a CGE model. Background Art

[0002] The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is a quantitative tool that simulates the interactions between various sectors, markets and economic behaviors within an economic system. By constructing a multi-sector, multi-market economic system, the CGE model can accurately describe the impact of changes in economic policies (such as carbon taxes, energy policies, trade policies, etc.) on various sectors and markets. The advantage of the CGE model is that it can fully reflect the impact of policy interventions on the overall economy, including resource allocation, industrial development, price changes, etc.

[0003] In environmental economic modeling, CGE models are widely used to evaluate the economic impact of policies such as carbon pricing and green power development, and provide decision-making support for policymakers on the dual goals of economy and environment. For example, in green power development, CGE models are often used to analyze the impact of policy tools such as carbon tax and renewable energy subsidies on the energy industry, manufacturing industry, service industry and the entire macro-economy.

[0004] However, most of the current CGE models are single-region models. They adopt a single national or overall regional perspective when constructing them, rely on overall data and economic indicators, ignore the diversity of economic and environmental differences between regions, and do not consider the economic linkage and resource complementarity between regions. Therefore, it is difficult to fully reflect the specific needs and challenges faced by different regions in the development of green electricity, which reduces the accuracy of the CGE model's analysis results on development trends such as industrial structure and economy. Summary of the invention

[0005] The embodiments of the present application provide a method and device for analyzing the impact of policies on the economy based on a CGE model, so as to solve the technical problems mentioned in the background technology section.

[0006] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for analyzing the impact of a policy on the economy based on a CGE model, characterized by comprising:

[0007] Constructing a CGE model and a set of equations for solving the CGE model, wherein the CGE model is used to describe the impact of a policy scenario of a target region on the economic conditions of the target region, the impact of a policy scenario of at least one region in a domestic region set other than the target region on the economic conditions of the target region, and the impact of a policy scenario of the target region on the economic conditions of the at least one region, wherein the set of equations for solving the CGE model determines the relationship between product cost and selling price, between consumer subject utility cost and selling price, between product output value and consumer demand, between total labor force and labor force demand, between total capital and capital demand, between total consumer subject utility and total income of consumer subject, and between consumer subject utility selling price;

[0008] Setting model parameters of the CGE model and policy scenarios for each region in the domestic regional set;

[0009] The economic status of the target region is obtained by solving the equation group through the CGE model according to the model parameters and the policy scenarios of each region in the domestic region set.

[0010] Optionally, the CGE model includes: a production module, a power module, a expenditure module, an environmental policy module, a trade module, and a dynamic module.

[0011] Optionally, for the production module, the constructing of the CGE model includes:

[0012] Constructing a three-layer nested first constant substitution elasticity production function CES and a unit production cost function of conventional products, wherein the conventional products do not include electricity products;

[0013] According to the first CES and the unit production cost function of the conventional product, the relationship between the output value of the conventional product and the labor, capital, and various energy inputs is obtained.

[0014] Optionally, the power module includes eight power generation modes: coal-fired power generation, gas-fired power generation, oil-fired power generation, biomass power generation, hydropower generation, nuclear power generation, wind power generation, and photovoltaic power generation;

[0015] For the power module, the CGE model is constructed, including:

[0016] Construct a four-layer nested second constant substitution elasticity production function CES and a unit production cost function for power products, and set policy scenarios for the installed capacity of various types of generators;

[0017] According to the second CES and the unit production cost function of the power product, the relationship between the output value of the power product and labor, capital, various energy inputs, and the installed capacity of various generators is obtained to simulate the impact of the installed capacity of various generators on the economic situation.

[0018] Optionally, for the expenditure module, the constructing of the CGE model includes:

[0019] Construct a nested third CES and a unit cost function of the consumer's utility;

[0020] According to the third CES and the unit cost function of the consumer's utility, a relationship between the consumer's utility and the consumer's demand for products and investment goods is established.

[0021] Optionally, for the environmental policy module, the constructing of the CGE model includes:

[0022] Construct a four-layer nested fourth CES to set policy scenarios for carbon emission tax and production tax rates and subsidy rates;

[0023] According to the fourth CES, the relationship between product output value and labor, capital, various energy inputs, carbon emissions of various fossil energy sources, the carbon emission tax, the production tax, and subsidies is established to simulate the impact of the carbon emission tax and the production tax rate and subsidy rate on the economic situation.

[0024] Optionally, for the trade module, the constructing of the CGE model includes:

[0025] Constructing a three-layer nested fifth CES;

[0026] According to the fifth CES and the products of each region in the domestic region set except the target region, obtaining an inter-regional composite product of the products of each region in the domestic region set except the target region;

[0027] Obtaining a domestic composite product according to the fifth CES, the product of the target region, and the inter-regional composite product;

[0028] According to the fifth CES, as well as the domestic composite products and international imported goods, Armington composite goods are obtained.

[0029] Optionally, for the dynamic module, the constructing of the CGE model includes:

[0030] Time series data is added to the CGE model, and model parameters in the CGE model are updated according to the time series data.

[0031] Optionally, the economic conditions include at least one of the following: GDP, output value, energy consumption, total power generation and green power generation, carbon emissions, GDP structure, output value structure, power structure, energy consumption per unit of GDP, and carbon emissions per unit of GDP.

[0032] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a device for analyzing the impact of a policy on the economy based on a CGE model, comprising:

[0033] A construction unit is used to construct a CGE model and a set of equations for solving the CGE model, wherein the CGE model is used to describe the impact of a policy scenario of a target area on the economic status of the target area, and the impact of a policy scenario of at least one area in a domestic area set other than the target area on the economic status of the target area, and the impact of the policy scenario of the target area on the economic status of the at least one area, and the set of equations is solved to determine the relationship between product cost and selling price, between consumer subject utility cost and selling price, between product output value and consumer demand, between total labor force and labor demand, between total capital and capital demand, between total utility of consumer subject and total income of consumer subject, and between utility selling price of consumer subject;

[0034] Data units, which are used to set the model parameters of the CGE model and the policy scenarios for each region in the domestic regional set;

[0035] The simulation unit is used to solve the equations through the CGE model according to the model parameters and the policy scenarios of each region in the domestic regional set to obtain the economic status of the target region.

[0036] Optionally, the CGE model includes: production module, power module, expenditure module, environmental policy module, trade module, and dynamic module.

[0037] Optionally, for the production module, when the construction unit constructs the CGE model, it is specifically used to:

[0038] Construct a three-layer nested first constant substitution elasticity production function CES and a unit production cost function of conventional products, where conventional products do not include electricity products;

[0039] According to the first CES and the unit production cost function of conventional products, the relationship between the output value of conventional products and labor, capital, and various energy inputs is obtained.

[0040] Optional, the power module includes eight power generation modes: coal-fired power generation, gas-fired power generation, oil-fired power generation, biomass power generation, hydropower generation, nuclear power generation, wind power generation, and photovoltaic power generation;

[0041] For the power module, the construction unit is used to build the CGE model, specifically for:

[0042] Construct a four-layer nested second constant substitution elasticity production function CES and a unit production cost function for power products, and set policy scenarios for the installed capacity of various types of generators;

[0043] According to the second CES and the unit production cost function of power products, the relationship between the output value of power products and labor, capital, various energy inputs, and the installed capacity of various generators is obtained to simulate the impact of the installed capacity of various generators on the economic situation.

[0044] Optionally, for the expenditure module, the construction unit is used to build the CGE model, specifically for:

[0045] Construct a nested third CES and a unit cost function of the consumer's utility;

[0046] According to the third CES and the unit cost function of the consumer's utility, the relationship between the consumer's utility and the consumer's demand for products and investment goods is established.

[0047] Optionally, for the environmental policy module, the construction unit builds the CGE model, specifically for:

[0048] Construct a four-layer nested fourth CES to set policy scenarios for carbon emission tax and production tax rates and subsidy rates;

[0049] According to the fourth CES, the relationship between product output value and labor, capital, various energy inputs, carbon emissions of various fossil energy sources, carbon emission taxes, production taxes, and subsidies is established to simulate the impact of carbon emission taxes and production tax rates and subsidy rates on economic conditions.

[0050] Optionally, for the trade module, when constructing a CGE model, the construction unit is used to:

[0051] Constructing a three-layer nested fifth CES;

[0052] According to the fifth CES and the products of each region in the domestic region set except the target region, obtain the inter-regional composite product of the products of each region in the domestic region set except the target region;

[0053] According to the fifth CES, as well as the products of the target region and the inter-regional composite products, domestic composite products are obtained;

[0054] According to the fifth CES, as well as domestic composite products and international imported goods, Armington composite goods are obtained.

[0055] Optionally, for dynamic modules, the construction unit is used to build a CGE model, specifically for:

[0056] Add time series data to the CGE model and update the model parameters in the CGE model based on the time series data.

[0057] Optionally, the economic conditions include at least one of the following: GDP, output value, energy consumption, total power generation and green power generation, carbon emissions, GDP structure, output value structure, power structure, energy consumption per unit of GDP, and carbon emissions per unit of GDP.

[0058] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides an electronic device, including: a processor and a memory;

[0059] Memory stores computer-executable instructions;

[0060] The processor executes the computer-executable instructions stored in the memory, so that the processor performs any method of the first aspect.

[0061] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a readable storage medium, including a program or an instruction. When the program or the instruction runs on a computer, any method of the above-mentioned first aspect is executed.

[0062] In a fifth aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a program product, including a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the method described in any one of the first aspects.

[0063] The embodiment of the present application provides a method and device for analyzing the impact of policies on the economy based on the CGE model. By constructing a CGE model and a set of equations for solving the CGE model, the model parameters of the CGE model and the policy scenarios of each region in the domestic regional set are set; according to the model parameters and the policy scenarios of each region in the domestic regional set, the set of equations is solved by the CGE model to obtain the economic conditions of the target region. A quantitative evaluation of the economic and environmental benefits of green electricity development in the target region is achieved, and the comprehensive benefits of power structure adjustment, carbon emission reduction target achievement and industrial optimization and upgrading under different policy scenarios can be accurately quantified, so as to assist enterprises in accurately identifying the value of green electricity and assist the government in scientifically formulating policies and strategies to promote green industrial development and economic structural transformation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0064] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative labor.

[0065] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for analyzing the impact of policies on the economy based on a CGE model provided in one embodiment of the present application;

[0066] Figure 2 A structural block diagram of a CGE model provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0067] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the structure of a CES corresponding to a production module provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0068] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the structure of a CES corresponding to a power module provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0069] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of the structure of the CES corresponding to the environmental policy module provided in one embodiment of the present application;

[0070] Figure 6 A schematic diagram of the structure of a CES corresponding to a trade module provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0071] Figure 7 A schematic diagram of the structure of an apparatus for analyzing the impact of policies on the economy based on a CGE model provided in one embodiment of the present application;

[0072] Figure 8 A schematic diagram of the hardware structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0073] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0074] The CGE model is a quantitative economics analysis tool based on neoclassical economics theory and is widely used to evaluate the impact of policy changes on the economic system.

[0075] In the existing technology, on the one hand, most of the existing CGE models are single-region models, which take countries or large regions as analysis units, rely on overall data and economic indicators, and ignore the diversity of economic and environmental differences among regions. In addition, most of the existing CGE models do not take into account the economic linkage and resource complementarity among regions, which leads to poor accuracy of the policy evaluation results on industrial structure and economy obtained based on the existing CGE models.

[0076] On the other hand, existing CGE models mainly focus on resource allocation and policy effects at the macroeconomic level, and usually describe the power industry through a simplified energy sector model. This simplification makes it difficult to reflect the complex power technology and energy structure, especially in the process of global energy transformation and low-carbonization of the power sector. The profound impact of power system changes on economic development, industrial structure, carbon emissions and energy consumption has not been fully captured, making it difficult to accurately simulate the low-carbon transformation process of the power system.

[0077] In order to solve at least one of the above technical problems, the present application provides a method and device for analyzing the impact of policies on the economy based on a CGE model, constructs a multi-region CGE model, introduces a refined regional input-output table, divides China into multiple provincial regions, namely, first-level regions, and for one of the target regions, its trade includes domestic trade and international trade, and establishes a connection between all regions concentrated in the first-level region through a trade network, and establishes a connection between the first-level region and the international (i.e., second-level region) through a trade network, so that the mutual influence of policies in different regions on the economy can be obtained, which is convenient for the government to accurately formulate economic policies according to the economic development level, resource endowment and policy background of different regions. Further, the power sector is further decomposed into different power generation technologies (such as fossil energy power generation, wind power, solar energy and other renewable energy power generation), and a transformation process model between these technologies is constructed. By carefully simulating the technological transformation of the power sector, the impact of low-carbon transformation on the power market, energy supply and carbon emissions can be fully reflected, especially in the context of the gradual increase in the proportion of renewable energy, the low-carbon transformation process of the power system can be accurately simulated.

[0078] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for analyzing the impact of policies on the economy based on a CGE model provided in one embodiment of the present application. Figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0079] S101, constructing a CGE model and solving a set of equations for the CGE model.

[0080] Among them, the CGE model is used to describe the impact of policy scenarios of each region in the domestic regional set except the target region on the economic conditions of the target region. Solving the equation group determines the relationship between product cost and selling price, between consumer subject utility cost and selling price, between product output value and consumer demand, between total labor force and labor demand, between total capital and capital demand, between total consumer subject utility and total income of consumer subject, and between consumer subject utility selling price;

[0081] Specifically, for the CGE model provided in this application, a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) is constructed to solve it. Among them, the MCP equation group consists of three sets of complementary relaxation conditions, namely: zero profit condition, market clearing condition, and income balance condition. The zero profit constraint ensures that all profits of the production department are used for production, which is composed of formula (1) and formula (2). The market clearing constraint ensures the balance of supply and demand in the commodity market and factor market, which is composed of formula (3) to formula (6). The income balance constraint ensures that all income of consumers is used for investment or consumption to obtain utility, which is composed of formula (7):

[0082] f i c (ω,v,P j )≥P i ⊥Q i ≥0 formula (1)

[0083] f w (P i )≥P w ⊥W≥0 Formula (2)

[0084]

[0085] ωL+vK≥I⊥I≥0 Formula (7)

[0086] Among them, P i and P j are the product prices of industry sectors i and j;

[0087] ω, v are the prices of labor and capital respectively;

[0088] Q i is the product supply of industrial sector i, i.e., output value;

[0089] W is the utility of the representative consumer subject;

[0090] L is the total labor supply;

[0091] K is the total capital supply;

[0092] I is the total income of the representative consumer entity;

[0093] f i c (ω,v,P j ) is the unit cost function of product i in industry sector;

[0094] f w (P i ) is the unit cost function of the consumer’s utility.

[0095] like Figure 2 As shown, the CGE model includes: production module, power module, expenditure module, environmental policy module, trade module and dynamic module.

[0096] Optionally, an implementation of S101 is:

[0097] S11. Construct a three-layer nested first constant substitution elasticity production function CES and a unit production cost function of conventional products, where conventional products do not include electricity products;

[0098] In this embodiment, the production technology of each industrial sector is described by a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function. In the production module, the unit cost function of industrial sector i is obtained by minimizing the cost of the industrial sector under the constraints of the production function. It should be noted that industrial sector i in the production module does not include the power sector.

[0099] The unit cost function of industry sector i is expressed by formula (8):

[0100]

[0101] S21. Based on the first CES and the unit production cost function of conventional products, obtain the relationship between the output value of conventional products and labor, capital, and various energy inputs.

[0102] Specifically, the CES function is used as a constraint for the above cost optimization problem, such as Figure 3 As shown in Figure 1, it is a three-layer nested form. The first layer of nested CES production function combines labor and capital into value-added bundles QVA i , combining various energy inputs (including coal, oil and gas, refined fossil fuels, and electricity) into energy bundles QE i .

[0103]

[0104] enec∈{COAL,ONG,REFN,ELE}

[0105] Among them, α L , α K , α enec are the share parameters of labor input, capital input, and energy input respectively;

[0106] A VA，i , A E，i are the scale parameters of value added and energy input respectively;

[0107] σ VA, σ E are the substitution elasticities between labor-capital and various energy inputs;

[0108] L i , K i , X i，enec They are the labor input, capital input, and energy input required for unit output respectively;

[0109] QVA i , QE i They are the value-added bundle and energy bundle required for unit output respectively.

[0110] The second nested CES production function combines the value-added bundle and the energy bundle into a value-added-energy bundle (QVAE i ).

[0111]

[0112] in:

[0113] α VA , α E are the share parameters of the value-added bundle and the energy bundle respectively.

[0114] A VAE，i The scale parameter for the added value-energy bundle.

[0115] σ VAE is the elasticity of substitution between value-added bundles and energy bundles.

[0116] QVAE i The added value required for unit output - energy bundle input.

[0117] The third nested CES production function combines the value-added-energy bundle and other intermediate inputs into the final product (Q i ).

[0118]

[0119] in:

[0120] X ij is the input of product j to product i, excluding the energy already invested.

[0121] α QVAE , α j They are the value added-energy bundle and the share parameters of each intermediate input.

[0122] A Q，i Scale parameters for final product production.

[0123] σ Qis the elasticity of substitution between the value added-energy bundle and the various intermediate inputs.

[0124] Q i is the output of product i.

[0125] Optionally, for the power module, the CGE of this embodiment divides the power module into eight different power technologies, namely coal-fired power generation, gas-fired power generation, oil-fired power generation, biomass power generation, hydropower generation, nuclear power generation, wind power generation, and photovoltaic power generation.

[0126] That is, ele∈{col, gas, ofu, bio, hyd, nuc, wnd, slr}, where col, gas, ofu, bio, hyd, nuc, wnd, and slr represent coal-fired power generation, gas-fired power generation, oil-fired power generation, biomass power generation, hydropower generation, nuclear power generation, wind power generation, and photovoltaic power generation respectively.

[0127] Accordingly, one implementation of S101 is:

[0128] S21. Construct a four-layer nested second constant substitution elasticity production function CES and a unit production cost function for electricity products, and set policy scenarios for the installed capacity of various types of generators.

[0129] Specifically, Figure 4 As shown in the figure, the power sector is characterized by a four-layer nested CES production function. On the basis of the general production sector, a fourth layer of CES production function is added to the top layer, and the installed capacity of generators with different power generation technologies is FF. ele As a constraint, the total power generation of each power technology is limited, thereby achieving the effect of exogenously controlling the power structure and the transformation process of the power system.

[0130] S22. Based on the second CES and the unit production cost function of power products, obtain the relationship between the output value of power products and labor, capital, various energy inputs, and the installed capacity of various generators to simulate the impact of the installed capacity of various generators on the economic situation.

[0131] Specifically, QVA ele , QE ele 、QVAE ele 、QVAEX ele The calculation formula of can refer to formula (9)-formula (12), which will not be repeated here. Since the installed capacity of generators with different power technologies FF is ele As a constraint, in this case, the product of the original third-level CES production function becomes the value added-energy-intermediate input bundle (QVAEX ele ), and is combined with the installed capacity constraint at the fourth level as the final product for the power sector.

[0132]

[0133] Among them, α VAEX , α FF are the share parameters of the value added-energy-intermediate input bundle and installed capacity input, respectively.

[0134] A ELE，ele is the scale parameter of the final product production function of the electricity sector.

[0135] σ VAEX is the elasticity of substitution between the value added-energy-intermediate input bundle and the installed capacity input.

[0136] QVAEX ele is the bundle of value added-energy-intermediate inputs required to produce a unit of output.

[0137] FF ele The installed capacity required for unit output.

[0138] Q ele is the output of final products in the electricity sector.

[0139] It should be noted that formula (13) is constructed based on the amount of money (10,000 yuan). ele Converted to physical quantity, i.e. kilowatt-hour.

[0140] Therefore, this model can calculate the power generation of different power technologies separately through the output of the above eight power sectors.

[0141] POW ele =f POW Q ele Formula (14)

[0142] Among them, POW ele is the electricity generated from the electric power technology ele.

[0143] f POW It is the conversion coefficient of currency quantity to electricity quantity.

[0144] In the power module, by carefully simulating the technological transformation of the power sector, it is possible to fully reflect the impact of the low-carbon transformation on the power market, energy supply and carbon emissions, especially in the context of the gradual increase in the proportion of renewable energy. The fourth layer of CES production function is added to the top layer, and the installed capacity of generators with different power generation technologies is combined into FF. ele As a constraint, the low-carbon transformation process of the power system can be accurately simulated, making it easier for policymakers to specify green power development strategies.

[0145] Optionally, for the expenditure module, one implementation of S101 is:

[0146] S31, construct a nested third CES and a unit cost function of the consumer's utility;

[0147] Specifically, the unit cost function of the consumer's utility is expressed by formula (15):

[0148]

[0149] Among them, X W，i , X INV，i It represents the demand of consumer for commodity i and investment product i, and INV represents investment product.

[0150] S32. Based on the third CES and the unit cost function of the consumer’s utility, establish the relationship between the consumer’s utility and the consumer’s demand for products and investment goods.

[0151] Specifically, the CES function serves as a constraint for the above cost minimization problem.

[0152]

[0153] Among them, X W，j , X INV，j It is the demand of consumer entities for various commodities j and investment products j.

[0154] α W，j , α INV，j is the share parameter of consumer demand for various types of commodity j and investment product j.

[0155] A w is the scale parameter of the consumer’s utility function.

[0156] σ W It is the elasticity of substitution between the demands for various products by consumers.

[0157] W is the utility of the representative consumer.

[0158] Optionally, the energy consumption of the economic system can be further calculated from the above variables through conversion coefficients between monetary quantities and physical quantities.

[0159]

[0160] ene∈PCOAL,ONG,REFN,ELE}

[0161] Among them, ENi, EN W is the energy consumption of production sector i and consumer entity.

[0162] f EN，eneis the currency-energy consumption conversion coefficient;

[0163] COAL, ONG, REFN, and ELE represent coal, petroleum and natural gas, refined fossil fuels, and electricity, respectively.

[0164] Optionally, the electrification rate of production sector i is expressed as the share of electricity in total energy input.

[0165]

[0166] Among them, ELCF i Electrification rate of production sector i.

[0167] By setting ELCF i , setting the electrification rate of industrial sector i can change the terminal energy consumption structure and increase the demand for green electricity.

[0168] Optionally, for the environmental policy module, one implementation of S101 is:

[0169] S41. Construct a four-layer nested fourth CES and set policy scenarios for carbon emission tax, production tax rate and subsidy rate.

[0170] S42. According to the fourth CES, establish the relationship between product output value and labor, capital, various energy inputs, carbon emissions of various fossil energy sources, carbon emission taxes, production taxes, and subsidies to simulate the impact of carbon emission taxes and production tax rates and subsidy rates on economic conditions.

[0171] Specifically, the environmental policy module supports carbon emission pricing. Carbon emission pricing is achieved through carbon emission trading. When the carbon emission trading policy is enabled, the CGE model uses the fossil energy (i.e. coal, oil and gas, refined fossil fuels) input of the corresponding production sector, such as Figure 5 As shown, a nested Leontief production function (i.e., a fixed ratio production function) is added to the bottom layer of the CES function, and fossil energy and corresponding carbon emissions are respectively combined into fossil energy-carbon emission bundles. The production function is shown in formula (20)-formula (22). Indirect carbon emissions caused by electricity input in the CGE model of this embodiment are not included in carbon emission pricing. The income generated by carbon emission pricing is transferred to the consumer entity after being collected by the government and becomes the income of the consumer entity.

[0172] QCOAL i =min(P COAL ·COAL, P carb ·EM i，COAL ) Formula (20)

[0173] QONG i =min(P ONGONG, P carb ·EM i，ONG ) Formula (21)

[0174] QREFN i =min(P REFN REFN, P carb ·EM i，REFN ) Formula (22)

[0175] Among them, QCOAL i ,QONG i ,QREFN i They are the input amounts of three types of fossil energy-carbon emission bundles: coal, oil and natural gas, and refined fossil fuels required for product i.

[0176] P carb The price of carbon emissions.

[0177] EM i，COAL , E.M. i，ONG , E.M. i，REFN They are the carbon emissions generated by product i consuming three types of fossil energy: coal, oil and natural gas, and refined fossil fuels.

[0178] Carbon emissions are calculated through fossil energy input and the corresponding carbon emission coefficient.

[0179] EM i，ene =f ene X i，ene Formula (23)

[0180] ene∈{COAL,ONG,REFN}

[0181] Among them, f ene is the carbon emission coefficient of fossil energy ene.

[0182] The environmental policy module supports production taxes and subsidies. Production taxes are levied by the government and transferred to consumers, becoming their income; on the contrary, subsidies are deducted from their income.

[0183]

[0184] Among them, τ i A positive value indicates a production tax rate, and a negative value indicates a subsidy rate.

[0185] The GDP of a region is calculated using the following formula.

[0186]

[0187] In the environmental policy module, two policy scenarios are set: the carbon pricing scenario and the green electricity subsidy scenario. The carbon pricing scenario serves as the benchmark for other scenarios, and the green electricity subsidy scenario is used to evaluate the impact of subsidy policies on green electricity investment and economic returns.

[0188] It should be noted that this model is a multi-region dynamic model, so in the actual operation of the model, it is necessary to add two dimensions, region r and time t. In order to simplify the expression of the above formula, these two dimensions are omitted. The following is an explanation of the multi-region trade module and the dynamic module in the model.

[0189] Optionally, for the trade module, an implementation of S101 is:

[0190] S51. Construct a three-layer nested fifth CES.

[0191] Specifically, in the trade module, the CGE model of this application divides China according to provinces, cities, and autonomous regions, with each province (city, autonomous region) being a region.

[0192] like Figure 1 As shown in the figure, the description of inter-regional trade in the CGE model is divided into inter-provincial trade and international trade. Local products and imported products (including inter-provincial trade imports and international trade imports) are not complete substitutes. Their substitution relationship is also described by the CES function. Specifically, the CES function of the trade module is as follows: Figure 6 shown.

[0193] S52. Obtain inter-regional composite products of the products of the regions other than the target region in the domestic region set based on the fifth CES and the products of the regions other than the target region in the domestic region set.

[0194] S53. According to the fifth CES, the products of the target area and the inter-regional composite products, obtain the domestic composite products.

[0195] S54. According to the fifth CES, as well as domestic composite products and international imported goods, obtain Armington composite goods.

[0196] Specifically, the implementation process of S52-S54 is:

[0197] Taking any province k as an example, the first-level CES nested relationship describes the substitution relationship between products imported from other provinces in the country, as shown in formula (26):

[0198]

[0199] Among them, R and r represent the domestic region (domestic province) set and other domestic provinces respectively;

[0200] QDIM rIt indicates the quantity of composite products composed of imported products from other provinces.

[0201] A QDIM，r，i Represents the scale parameter of inter-provincial trade imports of composite commodities.

[0202] α QDIM，k，i It represents the share parameter of inter-provincial trade imports of composite commodities.

[0203] σ QDIM，i It represents the elasticity of substitution between imported composite commodities in inter-provincial trade.

[0204] DIM k，i represents the quantity of product i imported from region k through inter-provincial trade.

[0205] The second layer of CES nested relationship describes the substitution relationship between inter-provincial trade imported composite commodities and locally produced commodities.

[0206]

[0207] Among them, DM r，i It refers to domestic composite commodities, which are composed of composite commodities imported from inter-provincial trade and locally produced commodities.

[0208] A DM，r，i Represents the scale parameter of domestic composite commodities.

[0209] α DM，r，i Represents the share parameter of the domestic composite commodity.

[0210] σ DM，i represents the elasticity of substitution between imported composite goods and locally produced goods in inter-provincial trade.

[0211] The third layer of nested relationships describes the substitution relationship between domestic composite commodities and international imported commodities. The CES function combines domestic composite commodities and international imported commodities into Armington composite commodities.

[0212]

[0213] Among them, AM r，i It represents Armington composite goods, which are a combination of domestic composite goods and international imported goods.

[0214] A AM，r，i Represents the scale parameter of the Armington composite commodity.

[0215] α AM，r，i Represents the share parameter of the Armington composite commodity.

[0216] σ AM，i It represents the elasticity of substitution between domestic composite goods and international imported goods.

[0217] The total amount of Armington composite goods in any region r is equal to the sum of the goods required for intermediate inputs and final consumption in that region.

[0218]

[0219] Among them, X r，j，i represents the demand for product i by industry sector j in region r;

[0220] X W，r，i It represents the demand for product i by consumer utility w in region r;

[0221] X INV，r，i It represents the demand of investment product INV for product i in region r.

[0222] Among them, formula (28) defines the total amount of Armington composite commodities in any region r from the perspective of product production, and formula (29) defines the total amount of Armington composite commodities in any region r from the perspective of the practicality of product i.

[0223] From the above, it can be seen that through the trade module, China is divided into multiple provincial regions to achieve the simulation of environmental and economic policies in different regions. For example, for the four regions of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shandong, and Beijing, the policy scenario of Inner Mongolia will affect the economic situation of Inner Mongolia itself, and the policy scenario of Inner Mongolia will also affect the economic situation of the three regions of Shaanxi, Shandong, and Beijing. The policy scenarios of the three regions of Shaanxi, Shandong, and Beijing will affect the economic situation of Inner Mongolia. Therefore, the CGE model of this application can determine the impact between the political scenarios of various regions, so that local governments can formulate green power development strategies that are in line with local realities based on the characteristics of different regions, and take regional differences into account in policy formulation to avoid the "one-size-fits-all" policy implementation effect. In addition, the model can simulate the industrial adjustment, technological progress and market response of different regions in the process of green power promotion, and provide more accurate prediction and evaluation for green power policies.

[0224] Optionally, for a dynamic module, an implementation of S101 is:

[0225] S61. Add time series data to the CGE model, and update model parameters in the CGE model according to the time series data.

[0226] Specifically, the CGE model of this application is an iterative dynamic model, and economic growth is driven by productivity improvement and production factor improvement. Among them, the improvement of productivity is achieved by exogenously setting the scale parameter in the above formula, and the improvement of production factors is divided into changes in the total labor force and capital accumulation. The change in labor force is determined by the population change rate and is calculated by formula (30).

[0227]

[0228] Among them, POP t is the population in year t.

[0229] Capital accumulation is calculated using formula (31) based on the investment and capital stock in the previous year in the model.

[0230]

[0231] Among them, δ is the depreciation rate.

[0232] S102. Set the model parameters of the CGE model and the policy scenarios for each region in the domestic regional set.

[0233] Specifically, the model parameters of the CGE model are shown in formula (1)-formula (31). These model parameters can be obtained through input-output tables, official statistical yearbooks, government and industry reports, for example, regional socio-economic data, including population, GDP, industrial distribution, labor productivity, etc.; energy and emission inventory data, including information on electricity production, consumption, carbon emissions, etc.; green power installed capacity, production capacity and actual operation data.

[0234] The updating of model parameters is performed through dynamic modules.

[0235] For the setting of policy scenarios, please refer to the relevant description in S101, which will not be repeated here.

[0236] S103. Based on the model parameters and the policy scenarios of each region in the domestic regional set, the CGE model is used to solve the equation group to obtain the economic status of the target region.

[0237] Specifically, through the modules in S101, the relationship between the model parameters and the policy scenarios is established, so that the relationship between the model parameters and the policy scenarios is brought into formula (1)-formula (7) for solution.

[0238] According to the solution results of formula (1)-formula (7), the total power generation and green power generation of the target area are obtained according to formula (14), the energy consumption of the target area is obtained according to formula (17) and formula (18), the carbon emissions of the target area are obtained according to formula (23), the output value of the target area is obtained according to formula (24), and the GDP of the target area is obtained according to formula (25).

[0239] Based on GDP, output value, energy consumption, total power generation, green electricity generation and carbon emissions, we can further obtain results such as GDP structure, output value structure, power structure, energy consumption per unit of GDP and carbon emissions per unit of GDP.

[0240] In this embodiment, by constructing a CGE model and a set of equations for solving the CGE model, the model parameters of the CGE model and the policy scenarios of each region in the domestic regional set are set; according to the model parameters and the policy scenarios of each region in the domestic regional set, the CGE model is used to solve the set of equations to obtain the economic conditions of the target region. This achieves a quantitative assessment of the economic and environmental benefits of green power development in the target region, and can accurately quantify the comprehensive benefits of power structure adjustment, carbon emission reduction target achievement, and industrial optimization and upgrading under different policy scenarios, thereby assisting enterprises to accurately identify the value of green power and assisting the government in scientifically formulating policies and strategies to promote green industrial development and economic structural transformation.

[0241] Figure 7 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an apparatus for analyzing the impact of policies on the economy based on a CGE model provided in one embodiment of the present application. Figure 7 As shown, the device includes: a construction unit 710, a data unit 720 and a simulation unit 730

[0242] A construction unit 710 is used to construct a CGE model and a set of equations for solving the CGE model. The CGE model is used to describe the impact of policy scenarios of various regions in the domestic region set except the target region on the economic conditions of the target region. The set of equations is solved to determine the relationship between product cost and selling price, between consumer subject utility cost and selling price, between product output value and consumer demand, between total labor force and labor demand, between total capital and capital demand, between total utility of consumer subject and total income of consumer subject, and between utility selling price of consumer subject;

[0243] Data unit 720, used to set model parameters of the CGE model and policy scenarios for each region in the domestic region set;

[0244] The simulation unit 730 is used to solve the equation group through the CGE model according to the model parameters and the policy scenarios of each region in the domestic region set to obtain the economic status of the target region.

[0245] Optionally, the CGE model includes: a production module, a power module, a expenditure module, an environmental policy module, a trade module, and a dynamic module.

[0246] Optionally, for the production module, when the construction unit 710 constructs the CGE model, it is specifically used to:

[0247] Constructing a three-layer nested first constant substitution elasticity production function CES and a unit production cost function of conventional products, wherein the conventional products do not include electricity products;

[0248] According to the first CES and the unit production cost function of the conventional product, the relationship between the output value of the conventional product and the labor, capital, and various energy inputs is obtained.

[0249] Optionally, the power module includes eight power generation modes: coal-fired power generation, gas-fired power generation, oil-fired power generation, biomass power generation, hydropower generation, nuclear power generation, wind power generation, and photovoltaic power generation;

[0250] For the power module, when the construction unit 710 constructs the CGE model, it is specifically used to:

[0251] Construct a four-layer nested second constant substitution elasticity production function CES and a unit production cost function for power products, and set policy scenarios for the installed capacity of various types of generators;

[0252] According to the second CES and the unit production cost function of the power product, the relationship between the output value of the power product and labor, capital, various energy inputs, and the installed capacity of various generators is obtained to simulate the impact of the installed capacity of various generators on the economic situation.

[0253] Optionally, for the expenditure module, when the construction unit 710 constructs the CGE model, it is specifically used to:

[0254] Construct a nested third CES and a unit cost function of the consumer's utility;

[0255] According to the third CES and the unit cost function of the consumer's utility, a relationship between the consumer's utility and the consumer's demand for products and investment goods is established.

[0256] Optionally, for the environmental policy module, when the construction unit 710 constructs the CGE model, it is specifically used to:

[0257] Construct a four-layer nested fourth CES to set policy scenarios for carbon emission tax and production tax rates and subsidy rates;

[0258] According to the fourth CES, the relationship between product output value and labor, capital, various energy inputs, carbon emissions of various fossil energy sources, the carbon emission tax, the production tax, and subsidies is established to simulate the impact of the carbon emission tax and the production tax rate and subsidy rate on the economic situation.

[0259] Optionally, for the trade module, when the construction unit 710 constructs the CGE model, it is specifically used to:

[0260] Constructing a three-layer nested fifth CES;

[0261] According to the fifth CES and the products of each region in the domestic region set except the target region, obtaining an inter-regional composite product of the products of each region in the domestic region set except the target region;

[0262] Obtaining a domestic composite product according to the fifth CES, the product of the target region, and the inter-regional composite product;

[0263] According to the fifth CES, as well as the domestic composite products and international imported goods, Armington composite goods are obtained.

[0264] Optionally, for the dynamic module, when the construction unit 710 constructs the CGE model, it is specifically used to:

[0265] Time series data is added to the CGE model, and model parameters in the CGE model are updated according to the time series data.

[0266] Optionally, the economic conditions include at least one of the following: GDP, output value, energy consumption, total power generation and green power generation, carbon emissions, GDP structure, output value structure, power structure, energy consumption per unit of GDP, and carbon emissions per unit of GDP.

[0267] The device for analyzing the impact of policies on the economy based on the CGE model provided in the embodiment of the present application can execute the technical solution shown in the above method embodiment. Its implementation principles and beneficial effects are similar and will not be repeated here.

[0268] Figure 8 The hardware structure diagram of the electronic device provided in the embodiment of the present application is shown in FIG. Figure 8 As shown, the terminal device 800 includes: a processor 801 and a memory 802,

[0269] The processor 801 and the memory 802 are connected via a bus 803 .

[0270] In a specific implementation process, the processor 801 executes the computer execution instructions stored in the memory 802, so that the processor 801 executes the above method.

[0271] The specific implementation process of the processor 801 can be found in the above method embodiment, and its implementation principle and technical effect are similar, so this embodiment will not be repeated here.

[0272] In the above Figure 8In the illustrated embodiment, it should be understood that the processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), etc. The general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor, etc. The steps of the method disclosed in the application may be directly embodied as being executed by a hardware processor, or may be executed by a combination of hardware and software modules in the processor.

[0273] The memory may include high-speed RAM memory and may also include non-volatile storage NVM, such as disk storage.

[0274] The bus may be an Industry Standard Architecture (ISA) bus, a Peripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus, or an Extended Industry Standard Architecture (EISA) bus, etc. The bus may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc. For ease of representation, the bus in the drawings of the present application is not limited to only one bus or one type of bus.

[0275] The present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, in which computer-executable instructions are stored. When a processor executes the computer-executable instructions, the above method .

[0276] The computer-readable storage medium mentioned above can be implemented by any type of volatile or non-volatile storage device or a combination thereof, such as static random access memory (SRAM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM), programmable read-only memory (PROM), read-only memory (ROM), magnetic memory, flash memory, magnetic disk or optical disk. The readable storage medium can be any available medium that can be accessed by a general or special-purpose computer.

[0277] An exemplary readable storage medium is coupled to a processor so that the processor can read information from the readable storage medium and write information to the readable storage medium. Of course, the readable storage medium can also be a component of the processor. The processor and the readable storage medium can be located in an application specific integrated circuit (Application Specific Integrated Circuits, referred to as: ASIC). Of course, the processor and the readable storage medium can also exist in the device as discrete components.

[0278] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the steps of implementing the above-mentioned method embodiments can be completed by hardware related to program instructions. The aforementioned program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. When the program is executed, the steps of the above-mentioned method embodiments are executed; and the aforementioned storage medium includes: ROM, RAM, disk or optical disk and other media that can store program codes.

[0279] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than to limit it. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or replace some or all of the technical features therein with equivalents. However, these modifications or replacements do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing the impact of policies on the economy based on the CGE model, characterized in that: include: Constructing a CGE model and a set of equations for solving the CGE model, wherein the CGE model is used to describe the impact of a policy scenario of a target region on the economic conditions of the target region, the impact of a policy scenario of at least one region in a domestic region set other than the target region on the economic conditions of the target region, and the impact of a policy scenario of the target region on the economic conditions of the at least one region, wherein the set of equations for solving the CGE model determines the relationship between product cost and selling price, between consumer subject utility cost and selling price, between product output value and consumer demand, between total labor force and labor force demand, between total capital and capital demand, between total consumer subject utility and total income of consumer subject, and between consumer subject utility selling price; Setting model parameters of the CGE model and policy scenarios for each region in the domestic regional set; The economic status of the target region is obtained by solving the equation group through the CGE model according to the model parameters and the policy scenarios of each region in the domestic region set.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The CGE model includes: a production module, a power module, a expenditure module, an environmental policy module, a trade module, and a dynamic module.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that For the production module, the construction of the CGE model includes: Constructing a three-layer nested first constant substitution elasticity production function CES and a unit production cost function of conventional products, wherein the conventional products do not include electricity products; According to the first CES and the unit production cost function of the conventional product, the relationship between the output value of the conventional product and the labor, capital, and various energy inputs is obtained.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The power module includes eight power generation modes: coal-fired power generation, gas-fired power generation, oil-fired power generation, biomass power generation, hydropower generation, nuclear power generation, wind power generation, and photovoltaic power generation; For the power module, the CGE model is constructed, including: Construct a four-layer nested second constant substitution elasticity production function CES and a unit production cost function for power products, and set policy scenarios for the installed capacity of various types of generators; According to the second CES and the unit production cost function of the power product, the relationship between the output value of the power product and labor, capital, various energy inputs, and the installed capacity of various generators is obtained to simulate the impact of the installed capacity of various generators on the economic situation.

5. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that: For the expenditure module, the construction of the CGE model includes: Construct a nested third CES and a unit cost function of the consumer's utility; According to the third CES and the unit cost function of the consumer's utility, a relationship between the consumer's utility and the consumer's demand for products and investment goods is established.

6. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that For the environmental policy module, the construction of the CGE model includes: Construct a four-layer nested fourth CES to set policy scenarios for carbon emission tax and production tax rates and subsidy rates; According to the fourth CES, the relationship between product output value and labor, capital, various energy inputs, carbon emissions of various fossil energy sources, the carbon emission tax, the production tax, and subsidies is established to simulate the impact of the carbon emission tax and the production tax rate and subsidy rate on the economic situation.

7. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that For the trade module, the construction of the CGE model includes: Constructing a three-layer nested fifth CES; According to the fifth CES and the products of each region in the domestic region set except the target region, obtaining an inter-regional composite product of the products of each region in the domestic region set except the target region; Obtaining a domestic composite product based on the fifth CES, the product of the target region, and the inter-regional composite product; According to the fifth CES, as well as the domestic composite products and international imported goods, Armington composite goods are obtained.

8. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that: For the dynamic module, the construction of the CGE model includes: Time series data is added to the CGE model, and model parameters in the CGE model are updated according to the time series data.

9. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 8, characterized in that: The economic conditions include at least one of the following: GDP, output value, energy consumption, total power generation and green power generation, carbon emissions, GDP structure, output value structure, power structure, energy consumption per unit of GDP, and carbon emissions per unit of GDP.

10. A device for analyzing the impact of policies on the economy based on a CGE model, characterized in that: include: A construction unit, used for constructing a CGE model and a set of equations for solving the CGE model, wherein the CGE model is used to describe the impact of a policy scenario of a target area on the economic conditions of the target area, the impact of a policy scenario of at least one area in a domestic area set other than the target area on the economic conditions of the target area, and the impact of a policy scenario of the target area on the economic conditions of the at least one area, wherein the set of equations for solving the CGE model determines the relationship between product cost and selling price, between consumer subject utility cost and selling price, between product output value and consumer demand, between total labor force and labor force demand, between total capital and capital demand, between total utility of consumer subject and total income of consumer subject, and between utility selling price of consumer subject; A data unit, used to set model parameters of the CGE model and policy scenarios for each region in the domestic region set; The simulation unit is used to solve the equation group through the CGE model according to the model parameters and the policy scenarios of each region in the domestic region set to obtain the economic status of the target region.

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