Trade-energy model construction method based on global carbon tax

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tax, and the method comprises the following steps: taking a GTAP-E model as a model skeleton, carrying out the region division and industry division of the data of a GTAP database, and taking the data as a data source of the GTAP-E model; a national carbon market is incorporated into a foreign carbon tax calculation system, and a plurality of collection scenes are set; using a GTAP-E model to analyze the variation of the national carbon tax and the carbon emission scale transfer index under different collection scenarios; and the carbon leakage rate is reflected by taking the carbon emission scale transfer index as an index. The method has the beneficial effects that the influence on each region and department caused by incorporation into different industry ranges is simulated by using the global trade-energy model GTAP-E simulation under the condition of considering the global carbon tax, each tax collection and incorporation into the carbon market industry are considered to the greatest extent in a targeted manner, and the industry repetition or omission is avoided; and the carbon emission transfer scale and direction of each country under different scenes are simulated, so that the carbon leakage condition of each country is reflected.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of energy management, and in particular to a method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tariffs. Background Art

[0002] The Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) is a mainstream analytical tool used by academia and the government to design and formulate environmental policies. Since it has been used in the field of environment and resources, it has shown special advantages over other methods. The CGE model is derived from the general equilibrium theory and is a macroeconomic analysis model based on neoclassical microeconomics. Its system modeling idea enables it to simulate the general and local impact of policy changes on the economic system. Therefore, when it comes to analyzing the overall economic costs of environmental policies, the methods and derivation analysis of the CGE model are more in line with the actual situation compared with econometrics and partial equilibrium models. In addition, since environmental policies usually have certain long-term goals, their equilibrium results can be predicted by static CGE analysis, while dynamic CGE analysis can describe the changing pattern of the impact of environmental policies on the economic system. In addition, the overlap of multiple policies in a certain field has become an inevitable problem in environmental policy analysis, and the CGE model can effectively analyze the economic costs under such conditions. In addition to the above advantages, the CGE model also has the advantages of fast and convenient simulation and calculation, providing researchers and policymakers with a practical and operational policy effect simulation method.

[0003] Although the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) policies of many countries have given relatively clear plans, some details have not yet been finalized, and governments have left some room for carbon tariff adjustments. The introduction of international trade policies in the name of climate will have a far-reaching impact on all countries. Even changes in bilateral trade will inevitably benefit or harm the interests of third countries. The spillover effects between different industries interact with each other and have an impact on the entire trade and production structure. How to think about the changes brought about by unilateral policies to the global economy and environment from the perspective of general equilibrium is an important issue that needs to be studied. However, the CGE model cannot analyze all corporate data and can only calculate the average carbon intensity of imported goods through macro data, so there will be a certain gap with the actual data. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the above problems, the present invention proposes a method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tariffs, which mainly solves the problem of insufficient versatility of the CGE model.

[0005] In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution of the present invention is as follows:

[0006] A method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tariffs includes the following steps:

[0007] Step 1, using the GTAP-E model as the model skeleton, dividing the data of the GTAP database into regions and industries, and using them as the data source of the GTAP-E model;

[0008] Step 2: Incorporate the domestic carbon market into the foreign carbon tariff calculation system and set up multiple collection scenarios;

[0009] Step 3, using the GTAP-E model to analyze the change in the country's carbon tariffs and the carbon emission scale transfer index under different collection scenarios;

[0010] Step 4: Using the carbon emission scale transfer index as an indicator to reflect the carbon leakage rate.

[0011] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: by using the global trade-energy model GTAP-E to simulate the impact of incorporating different industry scopes on various regions and sectors under the condition of considering global carbon tariffs, the various taxation and inclusion of carbon market industries are considered in a targeted manner to the greatest extent possible to avoid industry duplication or omissions, and finally the carbon emission scale transfer coefficient is calculated according to the ratio of each country's carbon emission reduction rate to the world's emission reduction rate, the scale and direction of carbon emission transfer in various countries under different scenarios are simulated, and the carbon leakage situation of various countries is reflected accordingly. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0012] Figure 1 is the flow diagram of the standard GTAP model;

[0013] Figure 2 Produce module structure diagrams for GTAP-E;

[0014] Figure 3 Schematic diagram for the GTAP-E carbon border adjustment mechanism and China's ETS industry expansion scenario. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0015] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer and more specific, the content of the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific implementation methods. It is understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention, rather than to limit the present invention. It should also be noted that, for the convenience of description, only the parts related to the present invention are shown in the accompanying drawings, rather than all the contents.

[0016] This embodiment proposes a method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tariffs, including the following steps 1-4:

[0017] Step 1: Using the GTAP-E model as the model skeleton, the data of the GTAP database is divided into regions and industries, and used as the data source of the GTAP-E model.

[0018] The Global Trading Analysis Project (GTAP) was founded in 1992 by Thomas W. Hertel, a professor at Purdue University in the United States. This project builds a static global multi-sector general equilibrium model, which is implemented using the GEMPACK economic modeling software suite. The model follows the principle of general equilibrium in principle. Unlike the partial equilibrium model, it is not limited to one sector or a small group of sectors, and does not regard all production and consumption as a single commodity, or a very small amount of a specific commodity. Instead, it represents an economy with a variety of commodities produced by many sectors. GTAP simulations are not changes over time, but the difference between different states of the global economy (base case and policy case) at a fixed time point or relative to two time points (base period and future forecast period). GTAP has been widely used in simulation analysis and quantitative research on trade policies.

[0019] The standard GTAP model is a multi-regional, multi-sector, computable general equilibrium model designed based on neoclassical economic theory. Its flow diagram is shown in Figure 1 As shown, with perfect competition and constant returns to scale, bilateral trade is set up according to the Armington assumptions. Specifically, the income generated by production in the GTAP is accumulated into endowments, which are returned to households in the region and then used for three sources of final demand: private expenditure, government expenditure, and savings, which are then converted into investment expenditure. Each source of expenditure, as well as the purchase of intermediate goods, includes domestic purchases and import purchases, resulting in domestic and export sales of the firm.

[0020] GTAP-E (Energy) is an extended version of the GTAP model that incorporates energy substitution, which is not included in the standard GTAP model. Its production module structure is as follows: Figure 2 As shown in Figure 2. In addition, carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and the international trading mechanism for these emissions are also included. Therefore, this top-down model is widely used in the analysis of environmental trade policy issues.

[0021] In the production module, the first layer is based on the Leontief production function structure, and the total output is composed of the value-added bundle and intermediate inputs. The GTAP-E model takes energy from the intermediate input as a production factor and puts it into the value-added bundle. It includes five types: coal, oil, natural gas, petroleum and electricity. The energy factor forms the value-added bundle with land, capital energy and natural resources according to the constant elasticity of substitution production function (CES) structure. The capital energy bundle is further divided into two components: capital and energy. The energy factor is divided into electricity and non-electricity. The two are also elastically substituted for each other according to the CES structure. Coal and non-coal constitute the non-electricity part, and the non-electricity is composed of three raw materials: heat, oil, and petroleum products. All branches and intermediate inputs under the energy bundle are composed of the CES structure, which is divided into two markets: domestic and foreign. According to regional divisions, the foreign market is further divided into n regions.

[0022] In the consumption module, GTAP assumes three accounts: government, private, and savings. All government consumption expenditures are set as Cobb-Douglas functions, and energy commodities are separated from non-energy commodities in a nested CES structure. Private household consumption is constructed based on the Constant-Difference of Elasticities (CDE) function. The model aggregates energy commodities into a composite product retained in the CDE structure, and the CDE parameter values ​​expressing each energy commodity are the same.

[0023] In addition, GTAP-E adds CO2 emission data to the model file based on region, industry and use, which allows the model to calculate carbon emissions from different industries with different uses in different regions. Carbon emission tracking in the GTAP-E model considers the carbon emissions generated during the use of products, which depends on energy consumption, rather than directly tracking carbon emissions caused by primary fossil energy consumption. The model was first released in 2002 and a revised version was released in 2007. The new version adds modules such as carbon trading, carbon tax and regional carbon income by region.

[0024] Step 1.1, data selection:

[0025] The GTAP model has an extremely complete data set, including input-output data, bilateral trade data, trade protection and energy consumption data, and is a super set of social accounting matrices (SAM). Compared with general multi-regional CGE models, the GTAP model is more complete in quantitative data simulation. The construction of the GTAP database is mainly selected from the input-output tables of various countries, among which energy data also comes from official reports such as the IEA, the United Nations American Petroleum Corporation and the European Statistical Office, making the trade performance between major energy exporters and importers more consistent. Carbon emission data is based on the IPCC guidelines, adding data from institutions such as the Global Atmospheric Research Emission Database and the IEA, and correcting emission coefficients and other data. Based on this model and its supporting large and complete database, it is increasingly used for policy simulation analysis such as international trade negotiations, and for research on various issues such as international trade, environmental protection, energy, climate change, and economic growth.

[0026] This methodology uses the latest version of the GTAP 11 database, which expands its geographical coverage to 141 individual countries and 19 regions to capture global economic activities, including countries accounting for 99.1% of the world's Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and 96.4% of the world's population. Each country / region distinguishes 65 products and services, and classifies agriculture, food, resource extraction, manufacturing and service activities to describe all economic sectors in each country. The 11th edition updates the historical reference years (2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014) with the latest methodology and adds data for 2017. This methodology selects a more sustainable scenario based on future world economic forecasts given by the EconMap database of the French Research and Expertise on the World Economy (CEPII): a world that makes relatively good progress in sustainability, continues to strive to achieve development goals, and reduces resource intensity and dependence on fossil fuels. The model will impact and update the 2017 data of GTAP, and update the GDP, population, labor force and capital of each country to 2026. The updated changes of each factor in the GTAP database from 2017 to 2026 are shown in Table 1 below.

[0027] Table 1 Update changes of various elements in the GTAP database from 2017 to 2026

[0028]

[0029] Step 1.2: Area division:

[0030] Based on the GTAP 11 database, the current international economic situation, carbon tariff documents and trade patterns of various countries, the world is divided into the European Union (EU), China (CHN), the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Japan (JAP), South Korea (KOR), Mexico (MEX), Russia (RUS), Australia (AUS) and the rest of the world (ROW); the EU CBAM mechanism exemption area includes the 27 EU countries and other countries included in the EU ETS, including Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, which are analyzed together in the EU region. According to the WTO's 2022 export data of various countries in the world, 9 major exporting countries are selected and divided into 10 regions, as shown in Table 2 below.

[0031] Table 2 Regional classification of GTAP11 database

[0032]

[0033] Note: GTAP 11 data is divided by the software GTAPAgg2

[0034] Step 1.3: Industry classification:

[0035] The eight major industries are matched in turn according to the basic sectors of the GTAP11 database: steel is classified as mining and ferrous metals; power generation is classified as the power industry; aluminum is regarded as non-ferrous metals and metal products, and is classified as metal products in GTAP; chemicals are classified as chemical products; petrochemicals are classified as petroleum and coal products. For the EU, the UK and the US, some of the taxable goods lists are repeated with the industries included in my country, and some are not included in the industry list. They are divided according to the GTAP11 database: fertilizers, hydrogen, and ethanol are classified as chemical products; ceramics and glass are classified as mineral products; papermaking is classified as wood products and paper products; in accordance with policy requirements, the 65 sectors in the GTAP 11 database are divided into 15 industries, as shown in Tables 3 and 4 below.

[0036] Table 3 GTAP11 database department classification

[0037]

[0038]

[0039] Table 4: The corresponding sectors of the EU, US and UK carbon tariff levied industries and the industries covered by China's carbon market

[0040]

[0041] Step 2: Incorporate the domestic carbon market into the foreign carbon tariff calculation system and set up multiple collection scenarios.

[0042] With the EU, UK and US carbon tariff-related bills and carbon markets as the background, this paper analyzes the differences brought about by the inclusion of different industries in my country's carbon market. Although the EU carbon market broke through the 100EUR / t mark in early 2023, the subsequent continuous decline resulted in an average price of only 85EUR / t (about 89USD / t) in 2023. Some institutions predict that the bearish trend will continue until 2024 and fall below 60EUR. The UK carbon market fell 22% in 2023 compared with last year, with an average price of 65USD / t. The US CCA Act sets the starting price of carbon tariffs at 55USD / t in 2024, rising by 5% each year. China's carbon market hit a record high of 80CNY / t in October 2023, reaching 68CNY / t in 2023, and the price increase is relatively stable, and is expected to reach 150CNY / t (about 20USD / t) in 2025. China's carbon market hit a record high of 80 yuan in October 2023, reaching CNY / t in 2023. The price increase is relatively stable and is expected to reach 150CNY / t (about 20USD / t) in 2026.

[0043] Regarding the inclusion of my country's carbon market in the industry scope, combined with the current status of the carbon markets in Europe, the United States and the United Kingdom and the CBAM collection method, the scenario shown in Table 5 below is set with 2026 as the reference year:

[0044] Table 5 GTAP-E carbon border adjustment mechanism and China's ETS industry expansion scenario setting

[0045]

[0046]

[0047] Specifically:

[0048] Base1: Regulation (EU) 2023 / 956 of the European Parliament and of the Council, the EU began to impose carbon tariffs on imported commodities such as cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminum at a price of 60USD / t, while the UK and the US did not impose carbon tariffs for the time being. China's national carbon market only includes the power industry at this time, and the carbon price is 20USD / t.

[0049] Base2: Regulation (EU) 2023 / 956 of the European Parliament and of the Council, the EU began to impose carbon tariffs on imported commodities such as cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminum at a price of 100 USD / t, while the UK and the US did not impose carbon tariffs for the time being. China's national carbon market only includes the power industry at this time, and the carbon price is 20 USD / t.

[0050] A1: The EU began to impose carbon tariffs on imported commodities such as cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminum at a price of 60USD / t. The UK imposed carbon tariffs on aluminum, cement, ceramics, fertilizers, glass, hydrogen and steel at a price of 60USD / t. The United States imposed carbon tariffs on imported fossil fuels, refined petroleum products, petrochemical products, fertilizers, hydrogen, adipic acid, cement, iron and steel, aluminum, glass, pulp and paper, and ethanol at a price of 60USD / t. At this time, China's national carbon market only includes the power industry, and the carbon price is 20USD / t.

[0051] A2: The EU began to impose carbon tariffs on imported commodities such as cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminum at a price of 60USD / t. The UK imposed carbon tariffs on aluminum, cement, ceramics, fertilizers, glass, hydrogen and steel at a price of 60USD / t. The United States imposed carbon tariffs on imported fossil fuels, refined petroleum products, petrochemical products, fertilizers, hydrogen, adipic acid, cement, iron and steel, aluminum, glass, pulp and paper, and ethanol at a price of 60USD / t. China's national carbon market includes the electricity, cement and electrolytic aluminum industries, and the carbon price is 20USD / t.

[0052] A3: The EU began to impose carbon tariffs on imported commodities such as cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminum at a price of 60USD / t. The UK imposed carbon tariffs on aluminum, cement, ceramics, fertilizers, glass, hydrogen and steel at a price of 60USD / t. The United States imposed carbon tariffs on imported fossil fuels, refined petroleum products, petrochemical products, fertilizers, hydrogen, adipic acid, cement, iron and steel, aluminum, glass, pulp and paper, and ethanol at a price of 60USD / t. China's national carbon market includes electricity, cement, electrolytic aluminum, steel, glass, and paper industries, with a carbon price of 20 USD / ton.

[0053] A4: The EU began to impose carbon tariffs on imported commodities such as cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminum at a price of 60USD / t. The UK imposed carbon tariffs on aluminum, cement, ceramics, fertilizers, glass, hydrogen and steel at a price of 60USD / t. The United States imposed carbon tariffs on imported fossil fuels, refined petroleum products, petrochemical products, fertilizers, hydrogen, adipic acid, cement, iron and steel, aluminum, glass, pulp and paper, and ethanol at a price of 60USD / t. China's national carbon market includes electricity, cement, electrolytic aluminum, steel, glass, paper, petrochemical and chemical industries, with a carbon price of 20USD / t.

[0054] B1: The EU began to impose carbon tariffs on imported goods such as cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminum at a price of 100USD / t. The UK imposed carbon tariffs on aluminum, cement, ceramics, fertilizers, glass, hydrogen and steel at a price of 60USD / t. The United States imposed carbon tariffs on imported fossil fuels, refined petroleum products, petrochemical products, fertilizers, hydrogen, adipic acid, cement, iron and steel, aluminum, glass, pulp and paper, and ethanol at a price of 60USD / t. At this time, China's national carbon market only includes the power industry, and the carbon price is 20USD / t.

[0055] B2: The EU began to impose carbon tariffs on imported goods such as cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminum at a price of 100 USD / t. The UK imposed carbon tariffs on aluminum, cement, ceramics, fertilizers, glass, hydrogen and steel at a price of 60 USD / t. The United States imposed carbon tariffs on imported fossil fuels, refined petroleum products, petrochemical products, fertilizers, hydrogen, adipic acid, cement, iron and steel, aluminum, glass, pulp and paper, and ethanol at a price of 60 USD / t. China's national carbon market includes the electricity, cement and electrolytic aluminum industries, and the carbon price is 20 USD / t.

[0056] B3: The EU began to impose carbon tariffs on imported goods such as cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminum at a price of 100USD / t. The UK imposed carbon tariffs on aluminum, cement, ceramics, fertilizers, glass, hydrogen and steel at a price of 60USD / t. The United States imposed carbon tariffs on imported fossil fuels, refined petroleum products, petrochemical products, fertilizers, hydrogen, adipic acid, cement, iron and steel, aluminum, glass, pulp and paper, and ethanol at a price of 60USD / t. China's national carbon market includes electricity, cement, electrolytic aluminum, steel, glass, and paper industries, with a carbon price of 20USD / t.

[0057] B4: The EU began to impose carbon tariffs on imported goods such as cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminum at a price of 100USD / t. The UK imposed carbon tariffs on aluminum, cement, ceramics, fertilizers, glass, hydrogen and steel at a price of 60USD / t. The United States imposed carbon tariffs on imported fossil fuels, refined petroleum products, petrochemical products, fertilizers, hydrogen, adipic acid, cement, iron and steel, aluminum, glass, pulp and paper, and ethanol at a price of 60USD / t. China's national carbon market includes electricity, cement, electrolytic aluminum, steel, glass, paper, petrochemical and chemical industries, with a carbon price of 20USD / t.

[0058] Since the civil aviation transportation sector is not involved in foreign trade, this industry is not considered in the analysis of included industries.

[0059] GTAP-E carbon border adjustment mechanism and China's ETS industry expansion scenario setting Figure 3 shown.

[0060] Step 3: Use the GTAP-E model to analyze the change in the country's carbon tariffs and the carbon emission scale transfer index under different collection scenarios.

[0061] The calculation steps of the domestic carbon tariff include:

[0062] Step 301, counting carbon emissions of basic sectors of global economic activities.

[0063] The basic sectors include enterprises, governments and households. Emissions are calculated based on the energy consumption of enterprises, governments and households. Emissions are proportional to consumption. The calculation method of carbon emissions of enterprises is:

[0064] gco2fd(i,j,r)=qfd(i,j,r) (1);

[0065] Where gco2fd is the change in emissions from domestic energy consumption of enterprises, qfd is the change in domestic energy consumption of enterprises, i represents the five energy types considered in GTAP-E, j represents the sector, and r represents the country or region.

[0066] Step 302: Count the carbon emissions of global commodities.

[0067] Carbon emissions are calculated by region and commodity by adding up all uses, then emissions by region are calculated by similarly summing commodities, and then world emissions are calculated by summing across regions.

[0068] The mechanism proposed in Regulation (EU) 2023 / 956 of the European Parliament and of the Council will calculate direct emissions for the three industries of steel, aluminum and hydrogen, while fertilizers, cement and electricity will need to calculate direct and indirect emissions. The UK CBAM includes aluminum, cement, ceramics, fertilizers, glass, hydrogen and steel, taking into account the scope 1 and scope 2 emissions of imported products, and will calculate carbon emissions for UK imported goods in the same way as the EU CBAM. According to the CCA Act of the United States, the carbon intensity of goods can be calculated based on the known GTAP energy emissions data, rather than the average carbon intensity data of various countries and industries.

[0069] For commodity carbon emissions calculation method, the carbon emissions of EU-UK commodities are calculated as follows:

[0070]

[0071] Among them, EI dirt,r is the direct emission intensity vector of region r, C r is the fossil energy sector emission vector, in units of 10 6 tCO2eq;VOM r is the total sector output value vector of region r, in M ​​USD; EIemb，r is the sum of direct and indirect emission intensities of region r, VDFM power，r is the electricity consumption of each department in region r, in M ​​USD; c power，r and vom power，r is the carbon emissions of the power sector in region r and the total output of the power sector, in M ​​USD, c power，r / vom powerr The electricity emission coefficient of region r can be obtained.

[0072] Step 303, calculate the carbon emission intensity of each industry, and then convert the export value of each industry's goods from a specific tax to an ad valorem tax according to the carbon emission, and add it to the GTAP model.

[0073] In the GTAP model, RunGTAP3.75 software is used to perform data updates and simulate policy changes. Carbon tariffs are added to the policy shock in the form of tariff percentage changes. First, the emission intensity of each industry is calculated, and then the export value of each industry's goods is converted from specific tax to ad valorem tax based on CO2 emissions. Taking the European Union as an example, the calculation method for converting specific tax to ad valorem tax is:

[0074] VXCO2 i，r，EU =(p CBAM -p r )*e i，r *VCIF i，r (4);

[0075]

[0076]

[0077] In formula (4), VOXCO2 i,r,EU represents the value of carbon tariffs paid for exporting product i from region r to the EU, in M ​​USD; VCIF i,r represents the landed value of product i exported from region r to the EU, in MUSD; p CBAM and p r Represent the CBAM price and the carbon price of production region r, in USD / CO2eq; e i,r Represents the carbon intensity of product i produced in region r, in t CO2eq / USD;

[0078] In formula (5), tms i,r VPM represents the original tariff intensity of product i produced in region r. i,r and VCIF i,r Represents the market value and world value of product i exported from region r to the EU, in MUSD;

[0079] In formula (6), tms′ i,r represents the tariff intensity of product i produced in region r after the addition of carbon tariffs, Δtms i,r It represents the rate of change of tariff intensity, which is also a variable that needs to be added to the model shock. The carbon prices in each region of the GTAP11 database are shown in Table 6 below.

[0080] Table 6 Carbon prices in each region of the GTAP11 database

[0081]

[0082] Data reference: "State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2023" by the World Bank, "Emissions Trading Worldwide Status Report 2023" by the International Carbon Action Partnership

[0083] Unlike the EU, the US only imposes punitive charges for carbon emissions above the industry average, and does not exempt imported products from the carbon price already borne in their countries of origin. Therefore, the US carbon emissions calculation method is:

[0084] EIemb,r,CCA=EI emb ,USA-EI emb,r (7);

[0085] VXCO2 i,r =P CCA *e i,r *VCIF i,r (8);

[0086]

[0087] In formula (7), EI emb,r,CCA represents the implicit carbon emission intensity of the carbon tariffs imposed on imported goods from region r under the US CCA Act, EI emb,USA Represents the carbon emission intensity of products from the United States, which is used to represent the average level of the U.S. industry. The unit is t CO2eq / USD, P CCA Represents the US carbon tariff rate, in t CO2eq / USD.

[0088] Step 4: Using the carbon emission scale transfer index as an indicator to reflect the carbon leakage rate.

[0089] Carbon leakage is one of the main reasons for countries to introduce carbon tariff policies. Under the influence of the additional carbon costs caused by domestic climate policies, more and more companies choose to produce in areas without carbon prices. Although domestic carbon emissions have decreased, this has led to no reduction in global carbon emissions because the production process has been transferred to other regions. Here, carbon emission scale transfer is used as an indicator to reflect carbon leakage. The calculation method of the carbon emission scale transfer index is as follows:

[0090]

[0091] Among them, K r represents the carbon emission scale transfer index of region r, ΔE dirt,r Refers to the carbon emission change rate in region r, ΔE dirt Refers to the rate of change of global carbon emissions, |K r The value of | reflects the speed of carbon emission transfer, ΔE dirt,r and |K r |The size relative to 1 reflects the direction of carbon emission transfer.

[0092] In this embodiment, the global trade-energy model GTAP-E is used to simulate the impact of the inclusion of different industry scopes on various regions and sectors under the consideration of global carbon tariffs. Based on the latest GTAP 11 database released in 2023, the latest 2017 base year data is used as the basis, and the GTAP 11 database is updated to 2026 according to the forecast data of CEPII. According to the export volume ranking of countries in the world given by the World Bank, considering the analyzed carbon tariff policies of the United Kingdom, the United States and Europe, the world is divided into a total of 10 regions, the main exporting countries are listed as a separate region, and the remaining regions are uniformly classified as other regions in the world. According to the plan of China's carbon market inclusion industry and the taxable industries given by the carbon tariff bills of the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States, and at the same time, according to the GTAP database, it is divided into a total of 15 sectors, and each taxation and inclusion of carbon market industries are considered to the greatest extent possible to avoid industry duplication or omission.

[0093] At the same time, the two settings of the EU CBAM tariff rate of 60USD / t and 100USD / t were considered, and the scenarios were set without considering the UK and US carbon tariffs, and considering the UK and US carbon tariffs and considering 4 different industry coverage scenarios. A total of 10 scenarios were set to simulate the comprehensive impact of different industries in the Chinese carbon market under the consideration of carbon tariffs. According to the UK, the United States and the European carbon tariff policy, the local carbon tariff covers carbon emissions, industries and actual carbon prices of various countries, and the carbon tariff fees to be paid by each commodity exporting country are calculated. It is converted into a specific tax form and added to the RunGTAP software to simulate the changes in data under different impact scenarios. Finally, the carbon emission scale transfer coefficient is calculated based on the ratio of each country's carbon emission reduction rate to the world emission reduction rate, and the scale and direction of carbon emission transfer in various countries under different scenarios are simulated to reflect the carbon leakage of various countries.

[0094] The above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical concept and features of the present invention, and their purpose is to enable ordinary technicians in the field to understand the content of the present invention and implement it accordingly, and they cannot be used to limit the protection scope of the present invention. Any equivalent changes or modifications made based on the essence of the content of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tariffs, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1, using the GTAP-E model as the model skeleton, dividing the data of the GTAP database into regions and industries, and using them as the data source of the GTAP-E model; Step 2: Incorporate the domestic carbon market into the foreign carbon tariff calculation system and set up multiple collection scenarios; Step 3, using the GTAP-E model to analyze the change in the country's carbon tariffs and the carbon emission scale transfer index under different collection scenarios; Step 4: Using the carbon emission scale transfer index as an indicator to reflect the carbon leakage rate.

2. The method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tariffs as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation steps of the domestic carbon tariff include: Count carbon emissions from basic sectors of global economic activity; Counting carbon emissions from global commodities; The carbon emission intensity of each industry is calculated, and then the export value of each industry's goods is converted from a specific tax to an ad valorem tax based on the carbon emissions, and added to the GTAP model.

3. The method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tariffs as claimed in claim 2, characterized in that: The basic sectors include enterprises, governments and households, wherein the carbon emissions of the enterprises are calculated as follows: gco2fd(I,j,r)=qfd(i,j,r) (1); Where gco2fd is the change in emissions from domestic energy consumption of enterprises, qfd is the change in domestic energy consumption of enterprises, i represents the five energy types considered in GTAP-E, j represents the sector, and r represents the country or region.

4. The method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tariffs as claimed in claim 3, characterized in that: The carbon emissions of goods from the EU to the UK are calculated as follows: Among them, EI dirt,r is the direct emission intensity vector of region r, C r is the fossil energy sector emission vector, in units of 10 6 tCO2eq;VOM r is the total output value vector of the sector in region r, in MUSD; EI emb,r is the sum of direct and indirect emission intensities of region r, VDFM power,r is the electricity consumption of each department in region r, in M ​​USD; c power,r and vom power,r is the carbon emissions of the power sector in region r and the total output of the power sector, in MUSD, c power,r / vom power,r The electricity emission coefficient of region r can be obtained.

5. The method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tariffs according to claim 4, characterized in that: The calculation method for converting the specific tax into the ad valorem tax is: VXCO2 i，r,EU =(p CBAM -p r )*e i，r *VCIF i，r (4); In formula (4), VOXCO2 i,r,EU Represents the value of carbon tariffs paid for exporting product i from region r to the EU, in MUSD; VCIF i,r represents the landed value of product i exported from region r to the EU, in MUSD; p CBAM and p r Represent the CBAM price and the carbon price of production region r, in USD / CO2eq; e i,r Represents the carbon intensity of product i produced in region r, in t CO2eq / USD; In formula (5), tms i,r VPM represents the original tariff intensity of product i produced in region r. i,r and VCIF i,r Represents the market value and world value of product i exported from region r to the EU, in MUSD; In formula (6), tms′ i,r represents the tariff intensity of product i produced in region r after the addition of carbon tariffs, Δtms i,r It represents the rate of change of tariff intensity, which is also a variable that needs to be added to the model shock.

6. The method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tariffs as claimed in claim 5, characterized in that: The calculation method for carbon emissions in the United States is: EIemb,r,CCA=EIemb,USA-EIemb,r (7); VXCO2 i,r =P CCA *And i,r *VCIF i,r (8); In formula (7), EI emb,r,CCA represents the implicit carbon emission intensity of the carbon tariffs imposed on imported goods from region r under the US CCA Act, EI emb,USA Represents the carbon emission intensity of products from the United States, which is used to represent the average level of the U.S. industry. The unit is t CO2eq / USD, P CCA Represents the US carbon tariff rate, in t CO2eq / USD.

7. The method for constructing a trade-energy model based on global carbon tariffs according to claim 6, characterized in that: The carbon emission scale transfer index is calculated as follows: Among them, K r represents the carbon emission scale transfer index of region r, ΔE dirt,r Refers to the carbon emission change rate in region r, ΔE dirt Refers to the rate of change of global carbon emissions, |K r The value of | reflects the speed of carbon emission transfer, ΔE dirt,r and |K r |The size relative to 1 reflects the direction of carbon emission transfer.

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