Explosion accident cause analysis method and system in dangerous chemical production link

Abstract

The invention provides a dangerous chemical production link explosion accident cause analysis method and system, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining historical dangerous chemical production link explosion accidents, and building a dangerous chemical production link explosion accident database; determining dangerous chemical production link explosion accident cause factors through a preset accident cause model based on the dangerous chemical production link explosion database; based on the explosion accident cause factors in the dangerous chemical production link, performing evaluation scoring through a preset evaluation scoring matrix, and performing clearness processing on the evaluation scoring matrix through a grey number theory; based on the evaluation scoring matrix after sharpening processing, calculating and obtaining a cause degree value and a centrality value of the cause factors of the explosion accidents in the dangerous chemical production link through a preset evaluation test method, and establishing a multi-level hierarchical structure model through a preset interpretation structure model to perform hierarchical division of the cause factors; and determining the key factors of the explosion accident in the dangerous chemical production link based on the cause degree numerical value, the centrality numerical value and the hierarchical division of the cause factors. The problem that an existing dangerous chemical explosion reason is difficult to accurately position is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of dangerous goods accident analysis, and in particular to a method and system for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of dangerous chemicals. Background Art

[0002] Dangerous chemicals have dangerous characteristics such as flammability, explosiveness, corrosiveness, toxicity and radioactivity. They can easily cause personal injury, property damage or environmental pollution during production, use and disposal.

[0003] Through the statistics of major and serious accidents involving hazardous chemicals, it is found that accidents mainly occur in the production link, and the main type of major and serious accidents are explosion accidents. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth analysis of the causes of explosion accidents in the production link of hazardous chemicals, find the characteristics and causes of hazardous chemical explosion accidents, and determine the key causal factors, so as to provide certain theoretical guidance for the prevention of explosion accidents in the production link of hazardous chemicals. Summary of the invention

[0004] The present invention provides a method and system for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, which are used to solve the problem that the causes of existing hazardous chemical explosions are difficult to accurately locate.

[0005] The present invention provides a method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, comprising:

[0006] Obtain historical explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals and establish a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals;

[0007] Determine the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset accident causation model based on the explosion database in the production of hazardous chemicals;

[0008] Based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, evaluation and scoring are performed using a preset evaluation and scoring matrix, and the evaluation and scoring matrix is ​​clarified using grey number theory;

[0009] Based on the evaluation score matrix after clarification, the causal degree value and centrality value of the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals are calculated through the preset evaluation test method, and a multi-level hierarchical structure model is established through the preset explanatory structure model to divide the causal factors into levels;

[0010] Based on the cause degree value, centrality value and hierarchical division of causal factors, the key factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals are determined.

[0011] According to a method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals provided by the present invention, the method of obtaining explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals that have occurred in the past and establishing a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals specifically includes:

[0012] Collect accident data from emergency management bureaus at all levels, the Chemical Registration Center of the Ministry of Emergency Management, and the official websites of the Chemical Safety Association;

[0013] The collected accident data are sorted according to accident types, and a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals is established.

[0014] According to a method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals provided by the present invention, the method of determining the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals by using a preset accident cause model based on the explosion database of the production of hazardous chemicals specifically includes:

[0015] Based on the explosion database of hazardous chemicals production links, the preset accident causation model is used to analyze the various dimensions of the accident from five levels: regulatory agencies and associations, relevant enterprise management, technology and operation management, accident process and personnel activities, equipment and environment. The accident causation factors are obtained by statistical analysis according to the framework level classification.

[0016] According to a method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals provided by the present invention, the method evaluates and scores the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset evaluation and scoring matrix, and clarifies the evaluation and scoring matrix through grey number theory, specifically including:

[0017] Based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, the preset evaluation and scoring matrix is ​​used to evaluate and score the degree of mutual influence of the causal factors according to the five-level scale method;

[0018] The upper and lower limits of the gray number interval are determined according to the gray number semantic variables of the evaluation scale through the gray number theory, and the expert scoring is standardized.

[0019] Based on the standardized processing results of expert scores, the clarity processing is performed and the clarity numerical calculation is performed to represent each element of the direct impact matrix after processing.

[0020] According to a method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals provided by the present invention, the evaluation scoring matrix after clarification is used to calculate the cause degree value and centrality value of the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset evaluation test method, specifically including:

[0021] The evaluation score matrix after the clarification process is used as an initial direct correlation matrix, and the initial direct correlation matrix is ​​normalized to obtain a direct correlation matrix;

[0022] Calculate a comprehensive correlation matrix describing direct and indirect relationships between factors through the direct correlation matrix;

[0023] Based on the comprehensive correlation matrix, the influencing factors are analyzed, the overall influence matrix and threshold are calculated, and the cause degree value and the centrality value are obtained.

[0024] According to a method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals provided by the present invention, the method establishes a multi-level hierarchical structure model through a preset explanatory structure model to perform hierarchical division of the causal factors, specifically including:

[0025] The overall influence matrix is ​​compared and calculated according to the calculated threshold value to obtain the reachable matrix;

[0026] Based on the reachable matrix, a multi-level hierarchical structure model is established through a preset explanatory structure model to perform hierarchical division of causal factors.

[0027] The present invention also provides a system for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, the system comprising:

[0028] A data acquisition module is used to obtain historical explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals and establish a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals;

[0029] A causal factor determination module, used to determine the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset accident causal model based on the explosion database of the production of hazardous chemicals;

[0030] An evaluation module, used to evaluate and score based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset evaluation and scoring matrix, and to clarify the evaluation and scoring matrix through grey number theory;

[0031] The causal factor processing module is used to calculate the cause degree value and centrality value of the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals based on the evaluation and scoring matrix after clarification through the preset evaluation test method, and to establish a multi-level hierarchical structure model through the preset explanatory structure model to divide the causal factors into levels;

[0032] The key factor determination module is used to determine the key factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals based on the cause degree value, centrality value and hierarchical division of causal factors.

[0033] The present invention also provides an electronic device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the method for analyzing the cause of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals as described in any one of the above-mentioned methods is implemented.

[0034] The present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements any of the above-described methods for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals.

[0035] The present invention also provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements any of the above-mentioned methods for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals.

[0036] The present invention provides a method and system for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals. Based on official accident investigation reports and using accident cause models, the causes of accidents are analyzed from five levels: regulatory agencies and associations, relevant enterprise management, technology and operation management, accident process and personnel activities, equipment and environment, ensuring the comprehensiveness, accuracy and scientificity of the causes of accidents. At the same time, in view of the shortcomings of the traditional evaluation test-explanation structural model method that is highly subjective, the evaluation test-explanation structural model method is optimized through gray theory to make up for the shortcomings of strong subjectivity, obtain more objective values ​​of cause degree and centrality of accident cause factors, and establish a multi-level hierarchical structural model through the explanatory structural model method to divide the levels of each cause factor, determine the key cause factors affecting the explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, accurately locate the causes of the explosion of hazardous chemicals, and provide theoretical support for preventing the occurrence of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0037] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present invention or the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0038] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for analyzing causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals provided by the present invention.

[0039] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of module connection of the explosion accident cause analysis system in the production link of hazardous chemicals provided by the present invention.

[0040] Figure 3 It is a structural schematic diagram of the electronic device provided by the present invention.

[0041] Reference numerals: 110: data acquisition module; 120: causal factor determination module; 130: evaluation module; 140: causal factor processing module; 150: key factor determination module; 310: processor; 320: communication interface; 330: memory; 340: communication bus. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0042] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0043] Combine the following Figure 1 The present invention describes a method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, including: step 100, obtaining historical explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, and establishing a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals.

[0044] In the present invention, based on the emergency management bureaus of governments at all levels, the Chemical Registration Center of the Ministry of Emergency Management, the official website of the Chemical Safety Association, etc. as the main sources of accident data collection, explosion accidents in the production links of hazardous chemicals are collected and sorted out, and a database of explosion accidents in the production links of hazardous chemicals is established.

[0045] Step 200: determining the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset accident causation model based on the explosion database in the production of hazardous chemicals.

[0046] Specifically, it includes: based on the explosion database of hazardous chemicals production links, the preset accident causation model (Accimap model) is used to analyze the various dimensions of the accident from five levels: regulatory agencies and associations, relevant enterprise management, technology and operation management, accident process and personnel activities, equipment and environment, and the accident causation factors are obtained by statistical analysis according to the framework level classification.

[0047] In the present invention, based on the national emergency management bureaus at all levels of governments, the Chemical Registration Center of the Ministry of Emergency Management, and the official website of the China Chemical Safety Association as the main source of accident data collection, the hazardous chemical storage accidents that occurred in my country from 2016 to 2020 were collected and sorted, and supplemented by data from other websites. A total of 31 hazardous chemical production explosion accidents with complete accident investigation reports were collected.

[0048] Based on the Accimap model, the above accidents were analyzed in various dimensions, and the causes were classified and statistically analyzed according to the framework level. The specific manifestations of the determined accident causative factors are shown in Table 1.

[0049] Table 1

[0050]

[0051]

[0052] Step 300: Based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, evaluation and scoring are performed using a preset evaluation and scoring matrix, and the evaluation and scoring matrix is ​​clarified using grey number theory.

[0053] Specifically, it includes: based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, the preset evaluation and scoring matrix is ​​used to evaluate and score the mutual influence of the causal factors according to the five-level scale method;

[0054] The upper and lower limits of the gray number interval are determined according to the gray number semantic variables of the evaluation scale through the gray number theory, and the expert scoring is standardized.

[0055] Based on the standardized processing results of expert scores, the clarity processing is performed and the clarity numerical calculation is performed to represent each element of the direct impact matrix after processing.

[0056] In this invention, a five-level scale method of "no influence, weak influence, general influence, relatively strong influence, and strong influence" is adopted, and 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are used to digitally represent the degree of mutual influence of causal factors. The upper and lower limits of the gray interval number are determined according to the evaluation scale gray number semantic variables, as shown in Table 2. Interval gray in gray theory in yes The lower limit of yes The upper limit of

[0057] Table 2

[0058]

[0059] The expert scoring is standardized, refer to formula (1).

[0060]

[0061] Where: and Represents the normalized upper and lower limits.

[0062] For clarification processing, refer to formula (2).

[0063]

[0064] Where: Indicates the result of the clarity processing.

[0065] Clarify the numerical calculations and represent the elements of the direct impact matrix after processing.

[0066]

[0067] Step 400: Based on the clarified evaluation scoring matrix, the causal degree value and centrality value of the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals are calculated through a preset evaluation test method, and a multi-level hierarchical structure model is established through a preset explanatory structure model to perform a hierarchical division of the causal factors.

[0068] Specifically, the method includes: taking the evaluation score matrix after the clarification process as the initial direct correlation matrix, and normalizing the initial direct correlation matrix to obtain the direct correlation matrix;

[0069] Calculate a comprehensive correlation matrix describing direct and indirect relationships between factors through the direct correlation matrix;

[0070] Based on the comprehensive correlation matrix, the influencing factors are analyzed, the overall influence matrix and the threshold are calculated, and the cause degree value and the centrality value are obtained.

[0071] The overall influence matrix is ​​compared and calculated according to the calculated threshold value to obtain the reachable matrix;

[0072] Based on the reachable matrix, a multi-level hierarchical structure model is established through a preset explanatory structure model to perform hierarchical division of causal factors.

[0073] In the present invention, the evaluation score matrix obtained by grey theory processing is used as the initial direct correlation matrix A.

[0074]

[0075] The direct correlation matrix is ​​normalized to obtain the matrix Z.

[0076]

[0077] Calculate the comprehensive correlation matrix: Using the normalized direct correlation matrix Z, we can calculate the comprehensive correlation matrix T that describes the direct and indirect relationships between factors.

[0078] T=Z(IZ) -1 =t ij (6).

[0079] Analysis of influencing factors, influence degree Tr.

[0080] T r =(T r (1),T r (2),...,T r (n)) T (7).

[0081] The degree of influence is Tc.

[0082] T c =(T c (1),T c (2),...,T c (n)) T (8).

[0083] The centrality Mi of factor Fi.

[0084] M i =T r (i)+T c (i) (9).

[0085] The cause degree Ri of factor Fi.

[0086] R i =T r (i)-T c (i) (10).

[0087] Calculate the overall influence matrix H.

[0088] H=T+I (11).

[0089] Where I is the unit matrix.

[0090] Determine the threshold λ.

[0091]

[0092] Where: is the mean of all values ​​in the comprehensive correlation matrix T; σ is the standard deviation of the comprehensive correlation matrix T.

[0093] Calculate the reachable matrix K. According to the given threshold λ, the overall influence matrix H is compared and calculated to obtain the reachable matrix K.

[0094]

[0095] According to the reachable set R(S i ), the preceding set Q(S i ) and the intersection R(S i )∩Q(S i ) and draw the ISM diagram.

[0096] Step 500: Determine the key factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals based on the cause degree value, centrality value and hierarchical classification of causal factors.

[0097] In the present invention, according to the centrality of each influencing factor, the numerical value of the causal degree and the hierarchical division of each causal factor, the key factors affecting explosion accidents in the production link of hazardous chemicals are determined, so as to take targeted preventive measures to effectively prevent the occurrence of explosion accidents in the production link of hazardous chemicals.

[0098] Based on the method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals provided by the present invention, the cause of the accident is analyzed from five levels: regulatory agencies and associations, relevant enterprise management, technology and operation management, accident process and personnel activities, equipment and environment, based on the official accident investigation report. The cause of the accident is ensured to be comprehensive, accurate and scientific. At the same time, in view of the shortcomings of the traditional evaluation test-explanatory structural model method that is highly subjective, the evaluation test-explanatory structural model method is optimized through gray theory to make up for the shortcomings of strong subjectivity, and obtain more objective cause degree and centrality values ​​of accident causal factors. A multi-level hierarchical structural model is established through the explanatory structural model method to divide the levels of each causal factor, determine the key causal factors affecting the explosion accident in the production of hazardous chemicals, accurately locate the cause of the explosion of hazardous chemicals, and provide theoretical support for preventing the occurrence of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals.

[0099] refer to Figure 2 The present invention also discloses a system for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, the system comprising:

[0100] The data acquisition module 110 is used to acquire explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals in the past and establish a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals;

[0101] A causal factor determination module 120 is used to determine the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset accident causal model based on the explosion database of the production of hazardous chemicals;

[0102] An evaluation module 130 is used to evaluate and score based on the causal factors of the explosion accident in the production of hazardous chemicals using a preset evaluation and scoring matrix, and to clarify the evaluation and scoring matrix using grey number theory;

[0103] The causal factor processing module 140 is used to calculate the cause degree value and centrality value of the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals based on the evaluation score matrix after the clarification process through a preset evaluation test method, and establish a multi-level hierarchical structure model through a preset explanatory structure model to perform hierarchical division of the causal factors;

[0104] The key factor determination module 150 is used to determine the key factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals based on the cause degree value, centrality value and hierarchical division of causal factors.

[0105] The acquisition of historical explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals and the establishment of a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals specifically include:

[0106] Collect accident data from emergency management bureaus at all levels, the Chemical Registration Center of the Ministry of Emergency Management, and the official websites of the Chemical Safety Association;

[0107] The collected accident data are sorted according to accident types, and a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals is established.

[0108] Based on the explosion database of hazardous chemicals production links, the causal factors of explosion accidents in hazardous chemicals production links are determined through a preset accident causal model, specifically including:

[0109] Based on the explosion database of hazardous chemicals production links, the preset accident causation model is used to analyze the various dimensions of the accident from five levels: regulatory agencies and associations, relevant enterprise management, technology and operation management, accident process and personnel activities, equipment and environment. The accident causation factors are obtained by statistical analysis according to the framework level classification.

[0110] Based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, the evaluation and scoring are performed through a preset evaluation and scoring matrix, and the evaluation and scoring matrix is ​​clarified through the grey number theory, specifically including:

[0111] Based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, the preset evaluation and scoring matrix is ​​used to evaluate and score the degree of mutual influence of the causal factors according to the five-level scale method;

[0112] The upper and lower limits of the gray number interval are determined according to the gray number semantic variables of the evaluation scale through the gray number theory, and the expert scoring is standardized.

[0113] Based on the standardized processing results of expert scores, the clarity processing is performed and the clarity numerical calculation is performed to represent each element of the direct impact matrix after processing.

[0114] Based on the evaluation scoring matrix after clarification, the cause degree value and centrality value of the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals are calculated through the preset evaluation test method, including:

[0115] The evaluation score matrix after the clarification process is used as an initial direct correlation matrix, and the initial direct correlation matrix is ​​normalized to obtain a direct correlation matrix;

[0116] Calculate a comprehensive correlation matrix describing direct and indirect relationships between factors through the direct correlation matrix;

[0117] Based on the comprehensive correlation matrix, the influencing factors are analyzed, the overall influence matrix and the threshold are calculated, and the cause degree value and the centrality value are obtained.

[0118] A multi-level hierarchical structure model is established through the preset explanatory structure model to divide the causal factors into different levels, including:

[0119] The overall influence matrix is ​​compared and calculated according to the calculated threshold value to obtain the reachable matrix;

[0120] Based on the reachable matrix, a multi-level hierarchical structure model is established through a preset explanatory structure model to perform hierarchical division of causal factors.

[0121] Based on the cause analysis system of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals provided by the present invention, the cause of the accident is analyzed from five levels: regulatory agencies and associations, relevant enterprise management, technology and operation management, accident process and personnel activities, equipment and environment, based on the official accident investigation report, to ensure the comprehensiveness, accuracy and scientificity of the cause of the accident. At the same time, in view of the shortcomings of the traditional evaluation test-explanation structural model method that is highly subjective, the evaluation test-explanation structural model method is optimized through gray theory to make up for the shortcomings of strong subjectivity, and obtain more objective cause degree and centrality values ​​of accident causal factors. A multi-level hierarchical structural model is established through the explanatory structural model method to divide the levels of each causal factor, determine the key causal factors affecting the explosion accident in the production of hazardous chemicals, accurately locate the cause of the explosion of hazardous chemicals, and provide theoretical support for preventing the occurrence of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals.

[0122] Figure 3 An example of a physical structure diagram of an electronic device is shown in FIG. Figure 3As shown, the electronic device may include: a processor (processor) 310, a communication interface (Communications Interface) 320, a memory (memory) 330 and a communication bus 340, wherein the processor 310, the communication interface 320, and the memory 330 communicate with each other through the communication bus 340. The processor 310 can call the logic instructions in the memory 330 to execute a method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, the method comprising: obtaining historical explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals and establishing a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals; determining the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset accident causal model based on the explosion database of the production of hazardous chemicals; evaluating and scoring the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset evaluation and scoring matrix based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, and clarifying the evaluation and scoring matrix through grey number theory; calculating the causal degree value and centrality value of the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset evaluation test method based on the clarified evaluation and scoring matrix, and establishing a multi-level hierarchical structure model through a preset explanatory structure model to perform a hierarchical division of the causal factors; determining the key factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals based on the causal degree value, centrality value and hierarchical division of the causal factors.

[0123] In addition, the logic instructions in the above-mentioned memory 330 can be implemented in the form of a software functional unit and can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium when it is sold or used as an independent product. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), disk or optical disk and other media that can store program codes.

[0124] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a computer program product, which includes a computer program. The computer program can be stored on a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the computer can execute a method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals provided by the above methods. The method includes: obtaining historical explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals and establishing a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals; determining the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset accident causal model based on the explosion database of the production of hazardous chemicals; evaluating and scoring the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset evaluation and scoring matrix based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, and clarifying the evaluation and scoring matrix through grey number theory; calculating the causal degree value and centrality value of the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset evaluation test method based on the clarified evaluation and scoring matrix, and establishing a multi-level hierarchical structure model through a preset explanatory structure model to perform hierarchical division of the causal factors; determining the key factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals based on the causal degree value, centrality value and hierarchical division of the causal factors.

[0125] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, is implemented to execute a method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals provided by the above-mentioned methods, the method comprising: obtaining historical explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, and establishing a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals; determining the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset accident causal model based on the explosion database of the production of hazardous chemicals; evaluating and scoring the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset evaluation and scoring matrix based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, and clarifying the evaluation and scoring matrix through grey number theory; calculating the causal degree values ​​and centrality values ​​of the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset evaluation test method based on the clarified evaluation and scoring matrix, and establishing a multi-level hierarchical structure model through a preset explanatory structure model to perform hierarchical division of the causal factors; determining the key factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals based on the causal degree values, centrality values ​​and hierarchical division of the causal factors.

[0126] The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the scheme of this embodiment. Those of ordinary skill in the art may understand and implement it without creative effort.

[0127] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that each implementation method can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and of course, it can also be implemented by hardware. Based on this understanding, the above technical solution is essentially or the part that contributes to the prior art can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as ROM / RAM, a disk, an optical disk, etc., including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in each embodiment or some parts of the embodiments.

[0128] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, characterized in that: include: Obtain historical explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals and establish a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals; Determine the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset accident causation model based on the explosion database in the production of hazardous chemicals; Based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, evaluation and scoring are performed using a preset evaluation and scoring matrix, and the evaluation and scoring matrix is ​​clarified using grey number theory; Based on the evaluation score matrix after clarification, the causal degree value and centrality value of the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals are calculated through the preset evaluation test method, and a multi-level hierarchical structure model is established through the preset explanatory structure model to divide the causal factors into levels; Based on the cause degree value, centrality value and hierarchical division of causal factors, the key factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals are determined.

2. The method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals according to claim 1, characterized in that: The acquisition of historical explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals and the establishment of a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals specifically include: Collect accident data from emergency management bureaus at all levels, the Chemical Registration Center of the Ministry of Emergency Management, and the official websites of the Chemical Safety Association; The collected accident data are sorted according to accident types, and a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals is established.

3. The method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method of determining the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals based on the explosion database of the production of hazardous chemicals by using a preset accident causal model specifically includes: Based on the explosion database of hazardous chemicals production links, the preset accident causation model is used to analyze the various dimensions of the accident from five levels: regulatory agencies and associations, relevant enterprise management, technology and operation management, accident process and personnel activities, equipment and environment. The accident causation factors are obtained by statistical analysis according to the framework level classification.

4. The method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals according to claim 1, characterized in that: The evaluation and scoring of the causal factors of the explosion accident in the production link of hazardous chemicals is performed through a preset evaluation and scoring matrix, and the evaluation and scoring matrix is ​​clarified through the grey number theory, specifically including: Based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, the preset evaluation and scoring matrix is ​​used to evaluate and score the degree of mutual influence of the causal factors according to the five-level scale method; The upper and lower limits of the gray number interval are determined according to the gray number semantic variables of the evaluation scale through the gray number theory, and the expert scoring is standardized. Based on the standardized processing results of expert scores, the clarity processing is performed and the clarity numerical calculation is performed to represent each element of the direct impact matrix after processing.

5. The method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals according to claim 1, characterized in that: The evaluation scoring matrix after clarification is calculated by a preset evaluation test method to obtain the cause degree value and centrality value of the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, which specifically include: The evaluation score matrix after the clarification process is used as an initial direct correlation matrix, and the initial direct correlation matrix is ​​normalized to obtain a direct correlation matrix; Calculate a comprehensive correlation matrix describing direct and indirect relationships between factors through the direct correlation matrix; Based on the comprehensive correlation matrix, the influencing factors are analyzed, the overall influence matrix and the threshold are calculated, and the cause degree value and the centrality value are obtained.

6. The method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals according to claim 1, characterized in that: The multi-level hierarchical structure model is established through the preset explanatory structure model to divide the causal factors into levels, which specifically includes: The overall influence matrix is ​​compared and calculated according to the calculated threshold value to obtain the reachable matrix; Based on the reachable matrix, a multi-level hierarchical structure model is established through a preset explanatory structure model to perform hierarchical division of causal factors.

7. A system for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals, characterized in that: The system comprises: A data acquisition module is used to obtain historical explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals and establish a database of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals; A causal factor determination module, used to determine the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset accident causal model based on the explosion database of the production of hazardous chemicals; An evaluation module, used to evaluate and score based on the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals through a preset evaluation and scoring matrix, and to clarify the evaluation and scoring matrix through grey number theory; The causal factor processing module is used to calculate the cause degree value and centrality value of the causal factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals based on the evaluation and scoring matrix after clarification through the preset evaluation test method, and to establish a multi-level hierarchical structure model through the preset explanatory structure model to divide the causal factors into levels; The key factor determination module is used to determine the key factors of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals based on the cause degree value, centrality value and hierarchical division of causal factors.

8. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

9. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

10. A computer program product, comprising a computer program, characterized in that When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for analyzing the causes of explosion accidents in the production of hazardous chemicals as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

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