Geological disaster forecasting method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a geological disaster forecasting method and device, electronic equipment and a storage medium, which are applied to the technical field of disaster forecasting, and can obtain a first historical rainfall and a first predicted rainfall of a target area; according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, performing weighted summation on the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall to obtain a rainfall value; and determining a predicted geological disaster grade of the target area according to the rainfall value and preset geological disaster grades corresponding to different rainfall values. Therefore, different rainfall weights can be set according to geological conditions of different areas, weighted summation is carried out on the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to the rainfall weights, a rainfall value is obtained, and the predicted geological disaster grade of the target area is determined. Therefore, the method can adapt to specific geological conditions of different areas, and improves the accuracy of geological disaster forecasting.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of disaster prediction, and in particular to a method, device, electronic equipment and storage medium for predicting geological disasters. Background Art

[0002] At present, some common geological disasters such as landslides, mud-rock flows, mountain torrents, etc. often cause huge losses to people's production and life. How to forecast these geological disasters and take preventive measures has become very important and urgent. Since the occurrence of these geological disasters is often related to rainfall, the existing geological disaster forecasting methods often predict the level of geological disasters by the amount of recent rainfall. However, due to the different geological structures in different regions, the accuracy of forecasting by this method is often low, and the warning level is inaccurate. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the embodiments of the present invention is to provide a geological disaster prediction method, device, electronic device and storage medium to solve the problem of inaccurate warning level. The specific technical solution is as follows:

[0004] The purpose of the embodiments of the present invention is to provide a geological disaster prediction method, device, electronic device and storage medium to improve the accuracy of geological disaster prediction. The specific technical solution is as follows:

[0005] In a first aspect of an embodiment of the present invention, a method for predicting geological disasters is first provided, the method comprising:

[0006] Obtain the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall in the target area;

[0007] According to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, weighted summing the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall is performed to obtain a rainfall value;

[0008] The predicted geological disaster level of the target area is determined according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different preset rainfall values.

[0009] In a possible implementation manner, before performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value, the method further includes:

[0010] Determining the risk level corresponding to the target area according to the position corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different positions;

[0011] The predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area is determined according to the risk level corresponding to the target area and the predicted rainfall weights corresponding to different risk levels.

[0012] In a possible implementation manner, the first predicted rainfall includes rainfall in one or more future time periods;

[0013] The step of performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value includes:

[0014] According to the preset weights of the predicted rainfall in one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area, weighted summing the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall is performed to obtain rainfall values ​​in one or more future time periods;

[0015] Determining the predicted geological disaster level of the target area according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different preset rainfall values ​​includes:

[0016] According to the rainfall values ​​of the one or more future time periods, the future time periods and the geological disaster levels corresponding to the pre-set different rainfall values, the predicted geological disaster levels of the one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area are determined.

[0017] In a possible implementation manner, performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to the preset predicted rainfall weights for one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area to obtain rainfall values ​​for one or more future time periods includes:

[0018] Determining the risk level corresponding to the target area according to the position corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different positions;

[0019] According to the risk level corresponding to the target area and one or more future time periods corresponding to the first predicted rainfall, the predicted rainfall weights corresponding to different risk levels and different time periods are used to determine the predicted rainfall weights for one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area.

[0020] In a possible implementation manner, the first historical rainfall includes historical rainfall in multiple historical periods;

[0021] The step of performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value includes:

[0022] According to preset weights corresponding to different historical periods, weighted summation is performed on the rainfall in the multiple historical periods to obtain a second predicted rainfall;

[0023] According to the preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, the historical rainfall value and the second predicted rainfall are weightedly summed to obtain a rainfall value.

[0024] In a possible implementation manner, performing weighted summation on the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value includes:

[0025] According to the preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, the preset formula is:

[0026] ,

[0027] The first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall are weighted and summed to obtain the rainfall value, wherein y is the rainfall value, t is the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, and m p is the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, a n It is the first historical rainfall of the previous n days.

[0028] A second aspect of an embodiment of the present invention provides a geological disaster prediction device, the device comprising:

[0029] A rainfall acquisition module, used to acquire a first historical rainfall and a first predicted rainfall in a target area;

[0030] A rainfall value calculation module, configured to perform weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, to obtain a rainfall value;

[0031] The disaster prediction module is used to determine the predicted geological disaster level of the target area according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different pre-set rainfall values.

[0032] In a possible implementation, the device further includes:

[0033] A risk level determination module, used to determine the risk level corresponding to the target area according to the position corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different positions;

[0034] The rainfall weight determination module is used to determine the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area according to the risk level corresponding to the target area and the predicted rainfall weights corresponding to different risk levels.

[0035] In a possible implementation manner, the first predicted rainfall includes rainfall in one or more future time periods;

[0036] The rainfall value calculation module comprises:

[0037] A future rainfall value calculation submodule is used to perform weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to the preset predicted rainfall weights of one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area, so as to obtain rainfall values ​​of one or more future time periods;

[0038] The disaster prediction module comprises:

[0039] The future disaster prediction submodule is used to determine the predicted geological disaster level of one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area based on the rainfall values ​​of the one or more future time periods, the future time periods and the geological disaster levels corresponding to the pre-set different rainfall values.

[0040] In a possible implementation, the future rainfall value calculation submodule is specifically used to determine the risk level corresponding to the target area based on the location corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different locations; based on the risk level corresponding to the target area and one or more future time periods corresponding to the first predicted rainfall, the predicted rainfall weights corresponding to different risk levels and different time periods are used to determine the predicted rainfall weights for one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area.

[0041] In a possible implementation manner, the first historical rainfall includes historical rainfall in multiple historical periods;

[0042] The rainfall value calculation module is specifically used to perform weighted summation of the rainfall in the multiple historical periods according to the preset weights corresponding to different historical periods to obtain a second predicted rainfall; and perform weighted summation of the historical rainfall value and the second predicted rainfall according to the pre-set predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value.

[0043] In a possible implementation manner, the rainfall value calculation module is specifically configured to calculate the rainfall value according to a preset weight of the predicted rainfall corresponding to the target area by a preset formula:

[0044] ,

[0045] The first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall are weighted and summed to obtain the rainfall value, wherein y is the rainfall value, t is the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, and m p is the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, an It is the first historical rainfall of the previous n days.

[0046] An embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, comprising a processor, a communication interface, a memory and a communication bus, wherein the processor, the communication interface and the memory communicate with each other via the communication bus;

[0047] Memory, used to store computer programs;

[0048] The processor is used to implement any of the above-mentioned geological disaster prediction methods when executing the program stored in the memory.

[0049] An embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, any of the above-mentioned geological disaster prediction methods is implemented.

[0050] An embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer program product comprising instructions, which, when executed on a computer, enables the computer to execute any of the above-mentioned geological disaster prediction methods.

[0051] Beneficial effects of the embodiments of the present invention:

[0052] A geological disaster prediction method, device, electronic device and storage medium provided by an embodiment of the present invention can obtain a first historical rainfall and a first predicted rainfall in a target area; perform weighted summation on the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value; determine the predicted geological disaster level of the target area according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different preset rainfall values. This facilitates setting different rainfall weights according to the geological conditions of different regions, performing weighted summation on the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to the rainfall weight to obtain a rainfall value, and then only needs to determine the predicted geological disaster level of the target area according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different preset rainfall values. This can adapt to the specific geological conditions of different regions and improve the accuracy of geological disaster forecasting. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0053] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other embodiments can also be obtained based on these drawings.

[0054] Figure 1A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a geological disaster prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0055] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a method for determining a predicted rainfall weight provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0056] Figure 3 Another schematic diagram of a flow chart of a geological disaster prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a method for calculating rainfall value provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 5 An example diagram of a geological disaster prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 6 A schematic diagram of the structure of a geological disaster prediction device provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0060] Figure 7 A schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0061] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field based on the present invention belong to the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0062] In a first aspect of an embodiment of the present invention, a geological disaster prediction method is first provided. Figure 1 , Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a geological disaster prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present invention, the method comprising:

[0063] Step S11, obtaining a first historical rainfall and a first predicted rainfall in a target area;

[0064] Step S12, performing weighted summation on the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value;

[0065] Step S13, determining the predicted geological disaster level of the target area according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different preset rainfall values.

[0066] Corresponding to the above step S11, when obtaining the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall of the target area, the target area indicated in the embodiment of the present invention may be an area of ​​a range determined according to administrative divisions, such as a city, or an area delineated according to geological conditions, such as a mountainous area. Among them, the first historical rainfall may refer to the rainfall of the target area in the past period of time, specifically, it may be the total rainfall in the past period of time, or it may be the rainfall in multiple time periods in the past period of time. For example, it may refer to the total rainfall of the target area in the past 10 days, or it may refer to the rainfall of each day in the past 10 days. Among them, the first predicted rainfall may be the rainfall of the target area in the future period of time obtained according to meteorological forecasts. Specifically, it may be the rainfall of the target area in the future period of time obtained by a variety of prediction methods, for example, through an autoregressive moving average model, the time series data is decomposed into autoregression and moving average, and the future rainfall is predicted using the historical rainfall. For another example, through a regression model, by establishing the relationship between rainfall and other influencing factors, the rainfall is predicted through a regression equation.

[0067] Corresponding to the above step S12, the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area may be pre-set, specifically, may be set according to the risk level corresponding to the area, for example, if the risk level corresponding to the area is higher, the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the area is set to be larger, and vice versa, if the risk level corresponding to the area is lower, the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the area is set to be smaller. When the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall are weighted and summed according to the pre-set predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area may be multiplied by the first predicted rainfall, and then the multiplication result and the first historical rainfall are summed to obtain the rainfall value.

[0068] Corresponding to the above-mentioned step S13, when determining the predicted geological disaster level of the target area based on the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different pre-set rainfall values, different disaster levels can correspond to different rainfall value ranges. By comparing the calculated rainfall value to which range it belongs, the geological disaster level corresponding to the current rainfall value can be determined, that is, the predicted geological disaster level of the target area can be determined.

[0069] It can be seen that, through the method of the embodiment of the present invention, different rainfall weights can be set according to the geological conditions of different regions, and the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall are weighted and summed according to the rainfall weight to obtain a rainfall value, and then the predicted geological disaster level of the target area can be determined based on the rainfall value and the geological disaster level corresponding to the different pre-set rainfall values. In this way, it is possible to adapt to the specific geological conditions of different regions and improve the accuracy of geological disaster forecasting.

[0070] In one possible implementation, see Figure 2 , Figure 2 A flow chart of a method for determining a predicted rainfall weight provided by an embodiment of the present invention, wherein before performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to the preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value, the method further includes:

[0071] Step S21, determining the risk level corresponding to the target area according to the position corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different positions;

[0072] Step S22, determining the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area according to the risk level corresponding to the target area and the predicted rainfall weights corresponding to different risk levels.

[0073] In an embodiment of the present invention, different risk levels can be set for different areas, specifically, low risk areas, medium risk areas, high risk areas and extremely high risk areas. Among them, the higher the risk level, the greater the corresponding weight. Before determining the risk level corresponding to the target area, the risk levels corresponding to different locations can be pre-set, so that the locations corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different locations can be compared to determine the risk level corresponding to the target area. In one case, when setting the risk level corresponding to different locations, the size of the location can be the same as the size of the target area. For example, the target area is a city, and the risk levels corresponding to different cities are pre-set, so that the risk level corresponding to the target area can be found by directly searching; in another case, when setting the risk level corresponding to different locations, the size of the location can be larger than the size of the target area. For example, the target area is a city, and the risk level corresponding to each province or an area is pre-set, so that when determining the risk level corresponding to the target area, it is necessary to identify the location of the target area and identify the corresponding risk level according to the province or area corresponding to the location.

[0074] In a possible implementation manner, the first predicted rainfall includes rainfall in one or more future time periods; see Figure 3 , Figure 3 Another flow chart of the geological disaster prediction method provided by the embodiment of the present invention, step S12 performs weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to the preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value, including:

[0075] Step S121, according to the preset weights of the predicted rainfall in one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area, weighted summing the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall to obtain rainfall values ​​in one or more future time periods;

[0076] Step S13 determines the predicted geological disaster level of the target area according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different preset rainfall values, including:

[0077] Step S131, determining the predicted geological disaster level of one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area according to the rainfall values ​​of the one or more future time periods, the future time periods and the geological disaster levels corresponding to the pre-set different rainfall values.

[0078] Wherein, the first predicted rainfall includes rainfall in one or more future time periods. When weighted summing the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall is performed according to the preset weights of the predicted rainfall in one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area, different weights can be set for different target areas and different future time periods. Thus, the corresponding predicted rainfall weight is determined according to the location of the target area and the future time period, and then the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall are weighted summed according to the predicted rainfall weight to obtain rainfall values ​​in one or more future time periods. Wherein, see Table 1.

[0079] Table 1 is an example table of 2-hour rainfall values ​​and corresponding predicted geological disaster levels provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0080] Specifically, the warning levels can include red, orange, yellow, and blue. The corresponding relationship between the risk level, warning level, and rainfall value of the target area can be set for different time periods or future periods. In an example, if the risk level corresponding to the target area is a low-risk area, the risk level for the next two hours needs to be determined based on the calculated rainfall value. See Table 1. If the rainfall value is greater than 200, the warning level is red. If the rainfall value is greater than 150 and less than or equal to 200, the warning level is orange.

[0081] In a possible implementation, the weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to the pre-set predicted rainfall weights of one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area to obtain the rainfall values ​​of one or more future time periods includes: determining the risk level corresponding to the target area according to the location corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different locations; determining the predicted rainfall weights of one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area according to the risk level corresponding to the target area and the one or more future time periods corresponding to the first predicted rainfall using the predicted rainfall weights corresponding to different risk levels and different time periods. See Table 2, in which the forecast time includes multiple future time periods: 2h (2 hours), 6h (6 hours), 12h (12 hours), 24h (24 hours), 3D (3 days), 4D (4 days), 5D (5 days), 6D (6 days), and 7D (7 days). For multiple future time periods in the forecast time, the closer to the current time, the greater the weight, and for the risk area, the higher the risk level, the greater the weight. In an example, if the risk level of the target area is an extremely high risk area, the corresponding predicted rainfall weight in the next 2 hours is 80%, the corresponding predicted rainfall weight in the next 6 hours is 75%, and the corresponding predicted rainfall weight in the next 12 hours is 75%.

[0082] Table 2 is an example table of weights of forecast time effectiveness in risk areas provided by an embodiment of the present invention

[0083] In a possible implementation manner, the first historical rainfall includes historical rainfall in multiple historical periods; see Figure 4 , Figure 4 A flow chart of a method for calculating rainfall value provided in an embodiment of the present invention, step S12 performs weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value, including:

[0084] Step S41, performing weighted summation on the rainfall in the plurality of historical periods according to preset weights corresponding to different historical periods, to obtain a second predicted rainfall;

[0085] Step S42, according to the preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, weighted sum is performed on the historical rainfall value and the second predicted rainfall to obtain a rainfall value.

[0086] The first historical rainfall may include historical rainfall in multiple historical periods. Different weights may be set for different historical periods. Specifically, the closer the distance to the current time is, the greater the corresponding weight is, and the farther the distance is, the smaller the weight is. Then, the rainfall in multiple historical periods is weighted and summed to obtain the second predicted rainfall. Finally, according to the preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, the historical rainfall value and the second predicted rainfall are weighted and summed to obtain the rainfall value.

[0087] In a possible implementation, performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value includes: performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area by a preset formula:

[0088] ,

[0089] The first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall are weighted and summed to obtain the rainfall value, wherein y is the rainfall value, t is the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, and m p is the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, a n It is the first historical rainfall of the previous n days.

[0090] In order to illustrate the solution of the embodiment of the present invention, a specific embodiment is described below. Figure 5 , Figure 5 An example diagram of a geological disaster prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present invention includes:

[0091] 1. Obtain forecast data and historical data regularly;

[0092] 2. Determine if the forecast rainfall is greater than 0. If not, end the task directly.

[0093] 3. When the judgment result is yes, that is, if the predicted rainfall is greater than 0, the warning level is calculated by the warning model corresponding to the geological disaster forecasting method provided by the embodiment of the present invention, and then it is determined whether a warning information is generated. If so, a warning is sent, otherwise the process ends;

[0094] 4. When the judgment result is no, end.

[0095] In the actual calculation process, the method of the embodiment of the present invention can adopt a 1:50,000 geological disaster risk zoning map (low, medium, high, and extremely high), superimpose the historical rainfall for 1 to 10 days, and the forecast rainfall for the next 2h, 6h, 12h, 24h, 2d...7d, assign different weights, and generate warning results through the early warning model.

[0096] In order to illustrate the superiority of the scheme of the embodiment of the present invention, the inventor has conducted a large number of verifications, and the results show that the early warning model of the embodiment of the present invention is 40% more accurate than the traditional model, and is more flexible than the currently used model. It greatly protects the safety of people's lives and property. For details, please refer to Tables 3 and 4. In Table 3, the traditional model has a total of 20 groups of data in the early warning results generated, and the warning levels include: red warning, orange warning, yellow warning, blue warning and no warning. The model times are 1, 2, 3...20, respectively. The corresponding times P are calculated, among which the number of natural disasters generated in areas with high warning levels is smaller than the number of natural disasters generated in areas with low warning levels. There are 12 groups, and the number of natural disasters generated in areas without warning is 8 groups. In Table 4, the model of the present invention has a total of 20 groups of data in the early warning results generated, and the warning levels include: red warning, orange warning, yellow warning, blue warning and no warning. The model times are 1, 2, 3...20, respectively. The corresponding times P are calculated, among which the number of natural disasters generated in areas with high warning levels is smaller than the number of natural disasters generated in areas with low warning levels. There are 5 groups, and the number of natural disasters generated in areas without warning is 0. By comparison, it can be seen that the warning accuracy corresponding to the model of the embodiment of the present invention is higher.

[0097] Table 3 is a statistical table of the number of natural disasters caused by traditional model warnings

[0098] Table 4 is a statistical table of the model warning of the present invention and the number of natural disasters generated accordingly

[0099] A second aspect of the present invention provides a geological disaster prediction device. Figure 6 , the device comprises:

[0100] A rainfall acquisition module 601 is used to acquire a first historical rainfall and a first predicted rainfall in a target area;

[0101] A rainfall value calculation module 602 is used to perform weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value;

[0102] The disaster prediction module 603 is used to determine the predicted geological disaster level of the target area according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different pre-set rainfall values.

[0103] In a possible implementation, the device further includes:

[0104] A risk level determination module, used to determine the risk level corresponding to the target area according to the position corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different positions;

[0105] The rainfall weight determination module is used to determine the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area according to the risk level corresponding to the target area and the predicted rainfall weights corresponding to different risk levels.

[0106] In a possible implementation manner, the first predicted rainfall includes rainfall in one or more future time periods;

[0107] The rainfall value calculation module comprises:

[0108] A future rainfall value calculation submodule is used to perform weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to the preset predicted rainfall weights of one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area, so as to obtain rainfall values ​​of one or more future time periods;

[0109] The disaster prediction module comprises:

[0110] The future disaster prediction submodule is used to determine the predicted geological disaster level of one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area based on the rainfall values ​​of the one or more future time periods, the future time periods and the geological disaster levels corresponding to the pre-set different rainfall values.

[0111] In a possible implementation, the future rainfall value calculation submodule is specifically used to determine the risk level corresponding to the target area based on the location corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different locations; based on the risk level corresponding to the target area and one or more future time periods corresponding to the first predicted rainfall, the predicted rainfall weights corresponding to different risk levels and different time periods are used to determine the predicted rainfall weights for one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area.

[0112] In a possible implementation manner, the first historical rainfall includes historical rainfall in multiple historical periods;

[0113] The rainfall value calculation module is specifically used to perform weighted summation of the rainfall in the multiple historical periods according to the preset weights corresponding to different historical periods to obtain a second predicted rainfall; and perform weighted summation of the historical rainfall value and the second predicted rainfall according to the pre-set predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value.

[0114] In a possible implementation manner, the rainfall value calculation module is specifically configured to calculate the rainfall value according to a preset weight of the predicted rainfall corresponding to the target area by a preset formula:

[0115] ,

[0116] The first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall are weighted and summed to obtain the rainfall value, wherein y is the rainfall value, t is the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, and m p is the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, a n It is the first historical rainfall of the previous n days.

[0117] It can be seen that, through the device of the embodiment of the present invention, different rainfall weights can be set according to the geological conditions of different regions, and the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall are weighted and summed according to the rainfall weight to obtain a rainfall value, and then the predicted geological disaster level of the target area can be determined based on the rainfall value and the geological disaster level corresponding to the different pre-set rainfall values. In this way, it is possible to adapt to the specific geological conditions of different regions and improve the accuracy of geological disaster forecasting.

[0118] The embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, such as Figure 7 As shown, it includes a processor 701 , a communication interface 702 , a memory 703 and a communication bus 704 , wherein the processor 701 , the communication interface 702 , and the memory 703 communicate with each other via the communication bus 704 .

[0119] Memory 703, used for storing computer programs;

[0120] The processor 701 is used to execute the program stored in the memory 703 to implement the following steps:

[0121] Obtain the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall in the target area;

[0122] According to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, weighted summing the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall is performed to obtain a rainfall value;

[0123] The predicted geological disaster level of the target area is determined according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different preset rainfall values.

[0124] The communication bus mentioned in the above electronic device can be a Peripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus or an Extended Industry Standard Architecture (EISA) bus, etc. The communication bus can be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc. For ease of representation, only one thick line is used in the figure, but it does not mean that there is only one bus or one type of bus.

[0125] The communication interface is used for communication between the above electronic device and other devices.

[0126] The memory may include a random access memory (RAM) or a non-volatile memory (NVM), such as at least one disk memory. Optionally, the memory may also be at least one storage device located away from the aforementioned processor.

[0127] The above-mentioned processor can be a general-purpose processor, including a central processing unit (CPU), a network processor (NP), etc.; it can also be a digital signal processor (DSP), an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a field programmable gate array (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components.

[0128] In another embodiment provided by the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium is also provided, in which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of any of the above-mentioned geological disaster prediction methods are implemented.

[0129] In another embodiment provided by the present invention, a computer program product including instructions is also provided, which, when executed on a computer, enables the computer to execute any of the geological disaster prediction methods described in the above embodiments.

[0130] In the above embodiments, it can be implemented in whole or in part by software, hardware, firmware or any combination thereof. When implemented by software, it can be implemented in whole or in part in the form of a computer program product. The computer program product includes one or more computer instructions. When the computer program instructions are loaded and executed on a computer, the process or function described in the embodiment of the present invention is generated in whole or in part. The computer may be a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, a computer network, or other programmable device. The computer instructions may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, or transmitted from one computer-readable storage medium to another computer-readable storage medium. For example, the computer instructions may be transmitted from one website site, computer, server or data center to another website site, computer, server or data center by wired (e.g., coaxial cable, optical fiber, digital subscriber line (DSL)) or wireless (e.g., infrared, wireless, microwave, etc.) means. The computer-readable storage medium may be any available medium that a computer can access or a data storage device such as a server or data center that includes one or more available media integrated. The available medium may be a magnetic medium (e.g., a floppy disk, a hard disk, a tape), an optical medium (e.g., a DVD), or a semiconductor medium (e.g., a solid-state drive Solid State Disk (SSD)), etc.

[0131] It should be noted that, in this article, relational terms such as first and second, etc. are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or any other variants thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. In the absence of further restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "comprise a ..." do not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the elements.

[0132] Each embodiment in this specification is described in a related manner, and the same or similar parts between the embodiments can be referred to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. In particular, for the electronic device, storage medium and computer program product embodiments, since they are basically similar to the method embodiments, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the partial description of the method embodiments.

[0133] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the protection scope of the present invention. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention are included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A geological disaster prediction method, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtain the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall in the target area; According to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, weighted summing the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall is performed to obtain a rainfall value; The predicted geological disaster level of the target area is determined according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different preset rainfall values.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Before performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to the preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain the rainfall value, the method further includes: Determining the risk level corresponding to the target area according to the position corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different positions; The predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area is determined according to the risk level corresponding to the target area and the predicted rainfall weights corresponding to different risk levels.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The first predicted rainfall includes rainfall in one or more future periods; The step of performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value includes: According to the preset weights of the predicted rainfall in one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area, weighted summing the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall is performed to obtain rainfall values ​​in one or more future time periods; Determining the predicted geological disaster level of the target area according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different preset rainfall values ​​includes: According to the rainfall values ​​of the one or more future time periods, the future time periods and the geological disaster levels corresponding to the pre-set different rainfall values, the predicted geological disaster levels of the one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area are determined.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The step of performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to the preset predicted rainfall weights for one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area to obtain rainfall values ​​for one or more future time periods includes: Determining the risk level corresponding to the target area according to the position corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different positions; According to the risk level corresponding to the target area and one or more future time periods corresponding to the first predicted rainfall, the predicted rainfall weights corresponding to different risk levels and different time periods are used to determine the predicted rainfall weights for one or more future time periods corresponding to the target area.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The first historical rainfall includes historical rainfall in multiple historical periods; The step of performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value includes: According to preset weights corresponding to different historical periods, weighted summation is performed on the rainfall in the multiple historical periods to obtain a second predicted rainfall; According to the preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, the historical rainfall value and the second predicted rainfall are weightedly summed to obtain a rainfall value.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step of performing weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area to obtain a rainfall value includes: According to the preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, the preset formula is: , The first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall are weighted and summed to obtain the rainfall value, wherein y is the rainfall value, t is the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, and m p is the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, a n It is the first historical rainfall of the previous n days.

7. A geological disaster prediction device, characterized in that: The device comprises: A rainfall acquisition module, used to acquire a first historical rainfall and a first predicted rainfall in a target area; A rainfall value calculation module, configured to perform weighted summation of the first historical rainfall and the first predicted rainfall according to a preset predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area, to obtain a rainfall value; The disaster prediction module is used to determine the predicted geological disaster level of the target area according to the rainfall value and the geological disaster levels corresponding to different pre-set rainfall values.

8. The device according to claim 7, characterized in that The device also includes: A risk level determination module, used to determine the risk level corresponding to the target area according to the position corresponding to the target area and the risk levels corresponding to different positions; The rainfall weight determination module is used to determine the predicted rainfall weight corresponding to the target area according to the risk level corresponding to the target area and the predicted rainfall weights corresponding to different risk levels.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: It includes a processor, a communication interface, a memory and a communication bus, wherein the processor, the communication interface and the memory communicate with each other through the communication bus; Memory, used to store computer programs; A processor, for implementing the method steps described in any one of claims 1 to 6 when executing a program stored in a memory.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the method steps described in any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

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