Management coordination method and system based on labor demand analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a management coordination method and system based on labor demand analysis, and relates to the technical field of management coordination, and the method comprises the steps: carrying out the analysis based on historical labor demand information, and outputting a first labor prediction result; performing analysis based on the technical change information of the labor personnel, and outputting a technical change prediction result of the labor personnel; performing analysis based on the enterprise development information, and outputting an enterprise development prediction result; performing analysis based on the market demand change information, and outputting a market demand change prediction result; and in combination with the first labor force prediction result, the labor personnel technology change prediction result, the enterprise development prediction result and the market demand change prediction result, outputting a comprehensive labor force demand prediction result of each prediction stage, further outputting a management coordination scheme, and performing adjustment response on the labor force demand change of each stage. Accurate prediction and flexible management coordination of enterprise labor demands are realized, and enterprise operation efficiency and resource utilization efficiency are significantly improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of management and coordination technology, and in particular to a management and coordination method and system based on labor demand analysis. Background Art

[0002] As the scale of enterprises continues to expand, managing a large number of employees has become extremely complex. In the current labor market, the supply and demand of labor and the skill level are constantly changing. At the same time, competition between enterprises is becoming increasingly fierce, and they need to continuously improve their competitiveness and adaptability. With the continuous development of computer technology and information technology, enterprises have an increasing demand for information management.

[0003] However, existing technologies often rely solely on historical data when forecasting labor demand, and ignore the comprehensive consideration of multi-dimensional factors, such as technological changes, corporate development plans, and changes in market demand, which makes it easy for forecast results to be out of touch with actual conditions; and existing systems often fail to achieve dynamic response to changes in labor demand. In actual applications, companies need to respond quickly to changes in the market and technological environment, but existing methods lack the ability to process and adjust real-time data.

[0004] Therefore, in response to the above problems, there is an urgent need for a management and coordination method and system based on labor demand analysis. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a management and coordination method and system based on labor demand analysis, which solves the problems of inaccurate forecasting of enterprise labor demand and inflexible management and coordination, and improves resource allocation efficiency and enterprise adaptability.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention is implemented through the following technical solutions: a management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis, comprising the following steps: obtaining historical labor demand information, labor personnel technical change information, enterprise development information and market demand change information; analyzing based on historical labor demand information, identifying the labor demand change trend, and outputting a first labor forecast result; analyzing based on labor personnel technical change information, identifying the labor personnel technical change trend, and outputting a labor personnel technical change forecast result; analyzing based on enterprise development information, identifying the enterprise development trend, and outputting an enterprise development forecast result; analyzing based on market demand change information, identifying the market demand change trend, and outputting a market demand change forecast result; comprehensively analyzing the first labor forecast result, the labor personnel technical change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result and the market demand change forecast result, and outputting a comprehensive labor demand forecast result for each forecast stage; outputting a management and coordination plan based on the comprehensive labor demand forecast result, and adjusting and responding to the changes in labor demand at each stage.

[0007] Furthermore, a comprehensive analysis is performed in combination with the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result and the market demand change forecast result to output the comprehensive labor demand forecast result of each forecast stage. The specific analysis is as follows: obtaining the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result, the market demand change forecast result and the actual labor demand value of each stage in each historical stage; aligning the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result, the market demand change forecast result and the comprehensive labor demand value of each actual historical stage according to the time stage, and then outputting the relationship between the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result, the market demand change forecast result and the comprehensive labor demand value; substituting the relationship between the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result and the market demand change forecast result and the comprehensive labor demand value into the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result and the market demand change forecast result of each forecast stage to obtain the comprehensive labor demand forecast result of each forecast stage.

[0008] Furthermore, the relationship between the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technical change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result, the market demand change forecast result and the comprehensive labor demand value is specifically expressed based on linear programming, and the specific relationship is:

[0009] y ZH =c1*y DY +c2*y RY +c3*y QY +c4*y SC , where y ZH represents the comprehensive labor demand value, y DY represents the first labor force prediction result, y RY represents the prediction result of labor force technical change, y QY Represents the enterprise development forecast result, y SC It represents the forecast result of market demand change, c1 represents the linear coefficient of the first labor force forecast result, c2 represents the linear coefficient of the forecast result of labor technical change, c3 represents the linear coefficient of the enterprise development forecast result, and c4 represents the linear coefficient of the forecast result of market demand change.

[0010] Furthermore, based on the analysis of historical labor demand information, the trend of changes in labor demand is identified, and the specific analysis of outputting the first labor forecast result is as follows: the historical labor demand information specifically includes the labor demand quantity at each historical stage, the seasonal fluctuation of the enterprise's labor force, and the changes in labor demand during enterprise labor holidays; the trend part of the first labor forecast result is obtained based on the labor demand quantity at each historical stage, the seasonal part of the first labor forecast result is obtained based on the seasonal fluctuation of the enterprise's labor force, and the holiday effect part of the first labor forecast result is obtained based on the changes in labor demand during enterprise labor holidays; the trend part, seasonal part and holiday effect part of the first labor forecast result are combined to obtain the first labor forecast result for each forecast stage.

[0011] Furthermore, based on the information on technical changes of the workforce, analysis is performed to identify the trend of technical changes of the workforce, and the specific analysis of outputting the prediction results of technical changes of the workforce is as follows: the information on technical changes of the workforce is specifically the skill levels of the workforce at each historical stage; the skill levels of the workforce at each historical stage are sorted according to time to obtain a time series of skill levels, and the trend of technical changes of the workforce is identified; based on the time series of skill levels, the prediction results of technical changes of the workforce at each prediction stage are output, that is, the prediction results of the skill levels of the workforce at each prediction stage.

[0012] Furthermore, based on the enterprise development information, analysis is performed to identify enterprise development trends and output the specific analysis of enterprise development forecast results: the enterprise development information is specifically the R&D investment intensity of the enterprise at each historical stage; the R&D investment intensity at each historical stage is sorted according to time to obtain a time series of R&D investment intensity, and the enterprise development trend is identified; based on the time series of R&D investment intensity, the enterprise development forecast results for each forecast stage are output, that is, the R&D investment intensity forecast results for each forecast stage.

[0013] Furthermore, based on the market demand change information, analysis is performed to identify the market demand change trend, and the specific analysis of the market demand change forecast result is output as follows: the market demand change information is specifically the market share of enterprises at each historical stage; the market share of enterprises at each historical stage is sorted according to time to obtain a time series of market share, and the market demand change trend is identified; based on the time series of market share, the market demand change forecast results for each forecast stage, that is, the market share forecast results for each forecast stage, are output.

[0014] Furthermore, based on the output management and coordination plan of the comprehensive labor demand forecast results, the specific analysis of adjusting and responding to the changes in labor demand at each stage is as follows: adjusting the allocation and deployment of labor resources at each forecast stage based on the comprehensive labor demand forecast results at each forecast stage. The specific allocation and deployment include the implementation personnel recruitment plan, employee skills training plan, personnel deployment and work allocation at each forecast stage; setting a monitoring period for the comprehensive labor demand forecast results, obtaining the comprehensive labor demand forecast results and the actual labor demand at each forecast stage within the monitoring period, and then obtaining the average difference between the comprehensive labor demand forecast results and the actual labor demand, comparing the average difference with the deviation threshold, and when the average difference exceeds the deviation threshold, triggering the comprehensive labor demand forecast adjustment mechanism, obtaining the labor demand information, labor personnel technology change information, enterprise development information and market demand change information within the monitoring period, and updating and optimizing the relationship between the first labor forecast result, the labor personnel technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result, the market demand change forecast result and the comprehensive labor demand value.

[0015] A management and coordination system based on labor demand analysis, applying the above-mentioned management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis, includes: a data acquisition module, used to acquire historical labor demand information, labor personnel technology change information, enterprise development information and market demand change information; a first labor forecasting module, used to analyze based on historical labor demand information, identify the labor demand change trend, and output the first labor forecast result; a personnel technology forecasting module, used to analyze based on labor personnel technology change information, identify the labor personnel technology change trend, and output the labor personnel technology change forecast result; an enterprise development forecasting module, used to analyze based on enterprise development information, identify the enterprise development trend, and output the enterprise development forecast result; a market demand forecasting module, used to analyze based on market demand change information, identify the market demand change trend, and output the market demand change forecast result; a comprehensive labor forecasting module, used to combine the first labor forecast result, the labor personnel technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result and the market demand change forecast result for comprehensive analysis, and output the comprehensive labor demand forecast result of each stage; a management and coordination module, used to output a management and coordination plan based on the comprehensive labor demand forecast result, and adjust and respond to the labor demand changes at each stage.

[0016] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0017] This management and coordination method and system based on labor demand analysis can more accurately predict the labor demand in each stage of the future by analyzing data from multiple dimensions such as historical labor demand, technical changes of labor personnel, enterprise development trends and market demand changes. This prediction can help enterprises accurately allocate labor resources, ensure a high degree of match between labor supply and demand, and avoid waste of resources or labor shortages; by timely understanding changes in market demand, technical progress of labor personnel and enterprise development, enterprises can respond to market and technological changes more flexibly, and the adjustment response of labor resources can be carried out quickly according to these prediction results, avoiding the problem of unreasonable internal labor resource allocation due to external changes; by comprehensively analyzing different information sources, enterprises can make predictions based on the prediction results of labor demand, technological changes, market development and internal development trends of enterprises. The results can help companies make more scientific strategic decisions, gain an advantage in competition, respond to possible challenges and changes in advance, and reduce decision-making errors and strategy lags; analysis based on information on technical changes in labor can identify future changes in market demand for labor with different skills, thereby helping companies prepare for labor training and recruitment, ensuring that employee skills are closely aligned with market demand, improving employee market competitiveness, and also enhancing companies' ability to adapt to the market in new technologies; in the face of corporate development and market changes, by predicting changes in labor demand at different stages, companies can better adjust their operating strategies and take flexible response measures to avoid getting into trouble when there is an imbalance between labor supply and demand; by reasonably adjusting labor resources and technical skill allocation, companies can better adapt to future business development needs and promote sustainable development. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0018] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis of the present invention.

[0019] Figure 2 This is a structural diagram of a management and coordination system based on labor demand analysis of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0020] The embodiment of the present application realizes accurate prediction and flexible management and coordination of enterprise labor demand through a management and coordination method and system based on labor demand analysis, thereby significantly improving enterprise operation efficiency and resource utilization efficiency.

[0021] The overall idea of ​​the problem in the embodiment of this application is as follows:

[0022] First, the comprehensive acquisition and analysis of historical labor demand information, labor technical change information, enterprise development information and market demand change information constitutes the basis for labor demand forecasting. Then, through comprehensive analysis of this information, the comprehensive labor demand forecast results for each forecasting stage are output. Finally, based on this comprehensive forecast result, a management and coordination plan is formulated to flexibly adjust the changes in labor demand at each stage.

[0023] See also Figure 1 The embodiment of the present invention provides a technical solution: a management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis, comprising the following steps: obtaining historical labor demand information, labor technical change information, enterprise development information and market demand change information; analyzing based on the historical labor demand information, identifying the labor demand change trend, and outputting a first labor forecast result; analyzing based on the labor technical change information, identifying the labor technical change trend, and outputting the labor technical change forecast result; analyzing based on the enterprise development information, identifying the enterprise development trend, and outputting the enterprise development forecast result; analyzing based on the market demand change information, identifying the market demand change trend, and outputting the market demand change forecast result; comprehensively analyzing the first labor forecast result, the labor technical change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result and the market demand change forecast result, and outputting the comprehensive labor demand forecast result of each forecast stage; outputting a management and coordination plan based on the comprehensive labor demand forecast result, and adjusting and responding to the changes in labor demand at each stage.

[0024] Specifically, a comprehensive analysis is performed on the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result and the market demand change forecast result to output the comprehensive labor demand forecast result of each forecast stage. The specific analysis is as follows: obtain the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result, the market demand change forecast result and the actual labor demand value of each stage in each historical stage; align the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result, the market demand change forecast result and the comprehensive labor demand value of each actual historical stage according to the time stage, and then output the relationship between the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result, the market demand change forecast result and the comprehensive labor demand value; substitute the relationship between the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result and the market demand change forecast result of each forecast stage into the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result and the market demand change forecast result of each forecast stage to obtain the comprehensive labor demand forecast result of each forecast stage.

[0025] In this implementation scheme, the relationship between the first labor force forecast result, the labor force technical change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result, the market demand change forecast result and the comprehensive labor demand value is specifically expressed based on linear programming, and the specific relationship is:

[0026] y ZH =c1*y DY +c2*y RY +c3*y QY +c4*y SC , where y ZH represents the comprehensive labor demand value, y DY represents the first labor force prediction result, y RY represents the prediction result of labor force technical change, y QY Represents the enterprise development forecast result, y SC It represents the forecast result of market demand change, c1 represents the linear coefficient of the first labor force forecast result, c2 represents the linear coefficient of the forecast result of labor technical change, c3 represents the linear coefficient of the enterprise development forecast result, and c4 represents the linear coefficient of the forecast result of market demand change.

[0027] First, the linear coefficient in the relationship between the labor force forecast results, the labor force technology change forecast results, the enterprise development forecast results, the market demand change forecast results and the comprehensive labor demand value is obtained by multivariate linear regression analysis using historical data, and is specifically estimated by the least squares method, that is, it is calculated by minimizing the sum of squares of errors between the predicted value and the actual value; the sign of the linear coefficient reflects the positive and negative impact, a positive value indicates a positive impact, and a negative value indicates a negative impact, and the absolute size of the value reflects the intensity of the impact. Specifically, the labor force technology change forecast result is directionally related to the comprehensive labor demand value, so the linear coefficient of the labor force technology change forecast result takes a negative value.

[0028] Through comprehensive analysis of the first labor force forecast results, the labor force technology change forecast results, the enterprise development forecast results and the market demand change forecast results, the forecast deviation caused by a single factor is avoided, thereby improving the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the labor demand forecast; linear programming is used to establish a clear mathematical relationship to quantitatively describe the contribution of each forecast result to the comprehensive labor demand value, so that enterprises can understand the impact of each factor; by adjusting the model input and relationship according to the forecast results at different stages, the comprehensive labor demand forecast can be updated in real time to adapt to the rapidly changing market and technological environment.

[0029] Specifically, based on the analysis of historical labor demand information, the trend of labor demand changes is identified, and the specific analysis of outputting the first labor forecast result is as follows: the historical labor demand information specifically includes the labor demand in each historical stage, the seasonal fluctuation of the enterprise labor force, and the change of the labor demand during the enterprise labor holidays; the trend part of the first labor forecast result is obtained based on the labor demand in each historical stage, the seasonal part of the first labor forecast result is obtained based on the seasonal fluctuation of the enterprise labor force, and the holiday effect part of the first labor forecast result is obtained based on the change of the labor demand during the enterprise labor holidays; the trend part, seasonal part and holiday effect part of the first labor forecast result are combined to obtain the first labor forecast result of each forecast stage. The specific expression for obtaining the first labor forecast result is: y DY(t) =T (t) +S (t) +H (t) , where y DY(t) represents the first labor force forecast result at time period t, T (t) Indicates the trend part, S (t) represents the seasonal part, H (t) represents the holiday effect portion.

[0030] In this implementation, the trend part reflects the long-term trend of labor demand, that is, how labor demand increases or decreases over time. The long-term trend of demand is identified through time series analysis methods (such as moving average method, exponential smoothing method, linear regression). The specific expression for obtaining the trend part is as follows: T( t )=β0+β1*t, where β0 represents the labor demand in the initial stage, β1 represents the rate of change of labor demand, and t represents the time period.

[0031] The seasonal part reflects the cyclical fluctuations in labor demand due to seasonal factors (such as peak season and off-season). The seasonal fluctuation pattern is extracted by performing a cyclical analysis on historical labor demand data using seasonal decomposition methods (such as STL decomposition). Fourier series can also be used for simulation. The specific expression for obtaining the seasonal part is as follows:

[0032] In the formula, a and b represent the coefficients of the Fourier series, which are used to adjust the amplitude and phase of seasonal fluctuations. P represents the seasonal cycle. For example, when the demand for labor decreases after the Spring Festival (February) and increases at the end of the year (December), P is 12.

[0033] The holiday effect part reflects the change in labor demand caused by special periods such as holidays. By analyzing the changes in demand before and after holidays in historical data, the specific impact of holidays on demand is identified, and regression analysis or anomaly detection technology is used to quantify the holiday effect. The specific holiday effect part is obtained by expression example: Where I(t,holiday j ) represents the indicator function. When t is on vacation, the indicator function is 1, otherwise it is 0. j represents the vacation number, M represents the total number of vacations, and σ j Indicates the extent to which holidays affect labor demand.

[0034] The labor demand in the initial stage is determined by collecting and analyzing historical labor demand data; the rate of change of labor demand reflects the speed of change of labor demand over time, which is estimated by time series analysis of historical data. For example, the linear regression method can be used to fit the trend line of labor demand over time to obtain the slope, that is, the rate of change; in the seasonal part, the amplitude represents the maximum deviation value of seasonal fluctuations, that is, the maximum impact of seasonal fluctuations on labor demand, and the phase represents the starting time point of seasonal fluctuations in a year, that is, when the peak season or off-season begins, which is obtained through seasonal decomposition methods (such as STL decomposition) or Fourier series analysis. The indicator function inside is used to identify whether a certain time period is a holiday. When it is a holiday, the function value is 1; otherwise it is 0. It is specifically constructed based on the known holiday arrangements. The impact of holidays on labor demand represents the percentage or absolute value of the increase or decrease in labor demand caused by holidays, which is quantified through regression analysis or anomaly detection technology. The labor demand data before and after holidays in historical data can be collected and analyzed to identify the specific impact of holidays on demand. For example, linear regression can be used to fit the changing trend of labor demand before and after holidays, and the regression coefficient can be calculated as the impact of the holiday. Anomaly detection technology can also be used to identify abnormal demand fluctuations during holidays and estimate the impact accordingly.

[0035] The historical labor demand indicates the amount of labor actually used or needed by the enterprise in a certain period of time in the past. It can be obtained by counting the actual number of employees on the job in each time period through the enterprise's attendance records, or by estimating the labor usage in each stage through salary payment records. The required labor quantity can also be estimated based on historical business volume (such as order volume, production volume); the seasonal fluctuation of the enterprise's labor force indicates the change in the enterprise's labor demand due to seasonal changes in business or market (such as peak and off-peak seasons). It can be obtained and identified by analyzing the seasonal changes in sales volume or order volume and establishing a relationship with labor demand. The historical seasonal fluctuations can also be reflected through the quarterly human resource planning or deployment records formulated by the enterprise; the change in the enterprise's labor demand during holidays indicates the fluctuation in labor demand due to holidays (such as Spring Festival, National Day, etc.). It can be identified by extracting the attendance data during holidays from the attendance system and comparing it with the usual data to identify labor changes. It can also analyze the production task arrangement or operation plan during the holidays and estimate the impact of holidays on labor demand.

[0036] By combining trends, seasonal fluctuations and holiday effects, a more comprehensive and detailed labor demand forecast is provided, which avoids the errors that may be caused by single-factor forecasts and improves the accuracy of forecasts. By decomposing and reconstructing the fluctuation characteristics of historical data, it can more accurately capture the changing patterns of labor demand, thereby making more accurate forecasts of future demand. It can also adapt to demand fluctuations caused by specific factors such as seasonality and holidays, helping companies to better plan and deploy human resources.

[0037] Specifically, the analysis is performed based on the information of technical changes of the labor force, the trend of technical changes of the labor force is identified, and the specific analysis of the prediction results of technical changes of the labor force is output as follows: the information of technical changes of the labor force is specifically the skill level of the labor force at each historical stage; the skill level of the labor force at each historical stage is sorted according to time to obtain the time series of the skill level, and the trend of technical changes of the labor force is identified; based on the time series of the skill level, the prediction results of technical changes of the labor force at each prediction stage are output, that is, the prediction results of the skill level of the labor force at each prediction stage. The specific skill level prediction expression example is: y RY(t) =η1*ι t-1 +(1-η1)*ι t-1 ', where η1 represents the smoothing coefficient, which determines the impact of historical observations on the current forecast. The smoothing coefficient can be directly selected based on the analysis of historical time series data and past experience. The smoothing coefficient can also be directly selected by setting the parameter space and the objective function, bringing different smoothing coefficient values ​​into the model for verification to find the smoothing coefficient value that makes the objective function optimal, such as the mean square error, the mean absolute percentage error, or by observing the actual change level of the sequence. t-1represents the observed value at time t-1, specifically the actual skill level of the workers, ι t-1 ' represents the predicted value at time t-1, specifically the predicted skill level of the workforce.

[0038] In this implementation plan, skill level indicates the skill proficiency or ability level of the laborer, and can specifically indicate skill score or skill level or work performance, wherein skill level is obtained through standardized testing or assessment, skill level is obtained through qualification certificates, work experience or actual skill assessment classification (such as primary, intermediate, and advanced), and work performance is reflected by the efficiency and quality of the laborer's completion of technical tasks. When the skill level is a skill score, it is specifically quantified as: ranging from 0 to 100; when the skill level is a skill level, it is specifically quantified as: using 1, 2, 3 and other values ​​to represent primary, intermediate, and advanced; when the skill level is a performance indicator, it is specifically quantified as: the percentage of task completion rate or quality.

[0039] By analyzing the time series of historical skill levels, we can capture the changing trends in the skill levels of workers over time, and provide support for companies to predict future technology needs and plan training resources; time series analysis of skill levels enables the prediction model to adapt to the trends of technological progress and personnel skill upgrades, and helps companies to rationally allocate labor resources; by predicting changes in future skill levels, companies can carry out targeted technical training, formulate talent development plans, and promote technology upgrades.

[0040] Specifically, the specific analysis based on the enterprise development information is to identify the enterprise development trend and output the enterprise development forecast result: the enterprise development information is specifically the R&D investment intensity of the enterprise at each historical stage; the R&D investment intensity of each historical stage is sorted according to time to obtain the time series of R&D investment intensity and identify the enterprise development trend; based on the time series of R&D investment intensity, the enterprise development forecast result of each forecast stage is output, that is, the R&D investment intensity forecast result of each forecast stage. The specific R&D investment intensity forecast expression example is: y QY(t) =η2*φ t-1 +(1-η2)*φ t-1 ', where η2 represents the smoothing coefficient, which determines the impact of historical observations on the current forecast. The optimal smoothing coefficient is selected by calculating the forecast error and the sum of squares of the forecast error under different smoothing coefficients, φ t-1 represents the observed value at time t-1, specifically the actual R&D investment intensity, φ t-1 ' represents the predicted value at time t-1, specifically the predicted R&D investment intensity.

[0041] In this implementation plan, the R&D investment intensity of an enterprise is expressed as the ratio of the total R&D investment of the enterprise to the enterprise's operating income or total assets, which reflects the degree of importance the enterprise attaches to and the intensity of its investment in R&D activities. A high R&D investment intensity means that the enterprise pays more attention to technological innovation and product development, which helps to enhance the core competitiveness and market position of the enterprise. It can be obtained through the internal financial department or R&D department to obtain key data such as total R&D investment, operating income and total assets. It can also be obtained by consulting industry reports and statistical data to understand the R&D investment intensity of other enterprises in the same industry.

[0042] Through time series analysis, the historical changing trends of an enterprise's R&D investment intensity can be scientifically identified, thereby predicting future R&D investment intensity, which will help enterprises formulate long-term strategic plans and resource allocation strategies to ensure that R&D investment matches corporate development goals; the forecast results can guide enterprises to reasonably allocate R&D resources at different forecasting stages to avoid excessive or insufficient resource concentration, which will help enterprises maintain the continuity and stability of R&D activities and improve R&D efficiency; by understanding the changing trends of future R&D investment intensity, enterprises can more accurately grasp market opportunities and challenges and make more informed decisions.

[0043] Specifically, the specific analysis of analyzing the market demand change information, identifying the market demand change trend, and outputting the market demand change forecast result is as follows: the market demand change information is specifically the market share of enterprises in each historical stage; the market share of enterprises in each historical stage is sorted according to time to obtain the time series of market share and identify the market demand change trend; based on the time series of market share, the market demand change forecast result of each forecast stage is output, that is, the market share forecast result of each forecast stage. The specific market share forecast expression example is: Where η3 represents the smoothing coefficient, which determines the impact of historical observations on the current forecast. The smoothing coefficient is directly selected based on the analysis of historical time series data and past experience. It can also be verified by setting the parameter space and objective function, bringing different smoothing coefficient values ​​into the model to find the smoothing coefficient value that makes the objective function optimal, such as mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, or by observing the actual change level of the sequence to select the smoothing coefficient. represents the observed value at time t-1, specifically the actual market share, Represents the predicted value at time t-1, specifically the predicted market share.

[0044] In this implementation plan, the market share of an enterprise is expressed as the proportion of the enterprise's sales revenue or sales volume to the total market sales revenue or sales volume, reflecting the position and influence of the enterprise in the market. A high market share means that the enterprise has strong competitiveness and brand influence in the market, and can provide customers with more choices and better services. It can be obtained through the internal sales department or marketing department to obtain key information such as historical sales data and market share, or through market research to understand the sales revenue or sales volume of the entire market, as well as the sales revenue or sales volume of competitors, thereby identifying the enterprise's market share and analyzing the changing trend of market demand.

[0045] By analyzing market share through time series, companies can more accurately predict future market demand trends, which helps them adjust their market strategies in advance to meet customer needs and seize market share. Companies can flexibly adjust their product portfolios, pricing strategies, promotional activities, etc. according to market demand trends to adapt to market changes. Accurate market demand forecasts help companies identify market opportunities and potential threats in a timely manner, develop targeted market strategies, improve market competitiveness, and maintain their leading position in the market. By predicting changes in market demand, companies can foresee potential market risks and take appropriate measures to prevent and respond, which helps reduce their market risks and ensure their steady development.

[0046] Specifically, based on the output management and coordination plan of the comprehensive labor demand forecast results, the specific analysis of adjusting and responding to the changes in labor demand at each stage is as follows: based on the comprehensive labor demand forecast results of each forecast stage, adjust the allocation and deployment of labor resources at each forecast stage. The specific allocation and deployment include the implementation personnel recruitment plan, employee skills training plan, personnel deployment and work allocation at each forecast stage; set a monitoring period for the comprehensive labor demand forecast results, obtain the comprehensive labor demand forecast results and actual labor demand at each forecast stage within the monitoring period, and then obtain the average difference between the comprehensive labor demand forecast results and the actual labor demand, compare the average difference with the deviation threshold, and when the average difference exceeds the deviation threshold, trigger the comprehensive labor demand forecast adjustment mechanism to obtain the labor demand information, labor personnel technology change information, enterprise development information and market demand change information within the monitoring period, and update and optimize the relationship between the first labor forecast result, the labor personnel technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result, the market demand change forecast result and the comprehensive labor demand value.

[0047] In this implementation plan, by predicting labor demand and allocating resources in advance, waste and shortage of labor resources can be avoided and utilization efficiency can be improved; by adjusting and implementing personnel recruitment plans, employee skills training plans and personnel deployment according to the forecast results, it can ensure that the company has the right number and skills of labor to meet business needs; when there is a deviation between the actual labor demand and the forecast results, the adjustment mechanism is triggered, and the company can respond quickly and adjust its strategy to adapt to market changes; by accurately predicting and reasonably deploying labor resources, the company can avoid unnecessary recruitment and training costs and reduce overall labor costs; reasonable labor demand prediction and deployment can reduce employees' work pressure and dissatisfaction and improve employee satisfaction and loyalty.

[0048] The monitoring period of the comprehensive labor demand forecast results can be determined based on the actual situation and business needs of the enterprise. Specifically, if business demand changes rapidly, the monitoring period should be shortened accordingly to capture demand changes and make adjustments in a timely manner. If labor resources are relatively stable, the monitoring period can be appropriately extended. Conversely, if labor resources fluctuate greatly, the monitoring period should be shortened accordingly.

[0049] The specific methods for obtaining the deviation threshold include: analyzing the difference between the labor demand forecast results and the actual labor demand over a period of time, determining a reasonable deviation range as the threshold, or inviting industry experts or internal senior employees to evaluate the forecast results, and determining the deviation threshold based on their experience and judgment. Statistical methods (such as standard deviation, confidence interval, etc.) can also be used to determine the deviation threshold.

[0050] A specific example of adjusting and responding to changes in labor demand at each stage is: suppose an enterprise predicts that the labor demand in a certain department will increase significantly in the next three months, so it formulates a corresponding recruitment plan and employee skills training plan. However, during the monitoring period, it is found that there is a large deviation between the actual labor demand and the forecast result, and the actual demand is far lower than the forecast value. At this time, the enterprise can take the following adjustment response measures: suspend the recruitment plan, transfer the training resources originally planned for new employees to the skills improvement of existing employees, improve the comprehensive quality and business capabilities of employees, and reasonably deploy and assign work to existing employees according to actual needs to ensure that each employee can give full play to his or her abilities and advantages.

[0051] See also Figure 2, a management and coordination system based on labor demand analysis, applying the above-mentioned management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis, including: a data acquisition module, used to acquire historical labor demand information, labor personnel technology change information, enterprise development information and market demand change information; a first labor forecasting module, used to analyze based on historical labor demand information, identify the labor demand change trend, and output the first labor forecast result; a personnel technology forecasting module, used to analyze based on labor personnel technology change information, identify the labor personnel technology change trend, and output the labor personnel technology change forecast result; an enterprise development forecasting module, used to analyze based on enterprise development information, identify the enterprise development trend, and output the enterprise development forecast result; a market demand forecasting module, used to analyze based on market demand change information, identify the market demand change trend, and output the market demand change forecast result; a comprehensive labor forecasting module, used to combine the first labor forecast result, the labor personnel technology change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result and the market demand change forecast result for comprehensive analysis, and output the comprehensive labor demand forecast result of each stage; a management and coordination module, used to output a management and coordination plan based on the comprehensive labor demand forecast result, and adjust and respond to the changes in labor demand at each stage.

[0052] In summary, this application has at least the following effects:

[0053] By acquiring and analyzing historical labor demand information, information on changes in labor skills, enterprise development information, and market demand changes, we can have a more comprehensive understanding of the multiple dimensions and influencing factors of labor demand. By combining multiple information sources for comprehensive analysis, we can improve the accuracy and reliability of labor demand forecasts and provide a more solid basis for enterprises to formulate management and coordination plans. Based on the comprehensive labor demand forecast results, enterprises can more accurately formulate recruitment plans, training plans, internal deployment plans, etc. to ensure the rational allocation of labor resources, help avoid labor surplus or shortage, improve resource utilization efficiency, and reduce labor costs. Identifying the changing trends of labor demand, labor skills, enterprise development, and market demand enables enterprises to foresee and respond to potential risks and opportunities in advance, which helps enterprises enhance market adaptability and adjust strategies and business models in a timely manner to cope with the ever-changing market environment. By outputting management and coordination plans and adjusting and responding to changes in labor demand at each stage, enterprises can manage labor resources more efficiently, which helps improve the operational efficiency and management level of enterprises and provide strong support for the sustainable development of enterprises.

[0054] It should be understood by those skilled in the art that the embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods and systems. Therefore, the present invention may take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Moreover, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program codes.

[0055] The present invention is described with reference to the flowcharts and structure diagrams of the methods and systems according to the embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and combination of modules in the flowcharts and structure diagrams can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowcharts. Figure 1 process or processes and structures Figure 1 A device that specifies functionality in a module or multiple modules.

[0056] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 process or processes and structures Figure 1 A function specified in a module or multiple modules.

[0057] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 process or processes and structures Figure 1 Steps to specify functionality in a module or multiple modules.

[0058] Although the preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described, those skilled in the art may make other changes and modifications to these embodiments once they have learned the basic creative concept. Therefore, the appended claims are intended to be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications that fall within the scope of the present invention.

[0059] Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various changes and modifications to the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Thus, if these modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalents, the present invention is also intended to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Obtain historical labor demand information, labor force technology change information, enterprise development information and market demand change information; Analyze historical labor demand information, identify labor demand change trends, and output the first labor forecast results; Analyze the information on the technical changes of the workforce, identify the trend of technical changes of the workforce, and output the forecast results of technical changes of the workforce; Analyze enterprise development information, identify enterprise development trends, and output enterprise development forecast results; Analyze market demand change information, identify market demand change trends, and output market demand change forecast results; Combine the first labor force forecast results, the labor force technology change forecast results, the enterprise development forecast results and the market demand change forecast results to conduct a comprehensive analysis and output the comprehensive labor demand forecast results for each forecast stage; Based on the comprehensive labor demand forecast results, a management coordination plan is output to adjust and respond to changes in labor demand at each stage.

2. A management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis according to claim 1, characterized in that: Combined with the first labor force forecast results, labor force technology change forecast results, enterprise development forecast results and market demand change forecast results, a comprehensive analysis is conducted to output the comprehensive labor demand forecast results for each forecast stage as follows: Obtain the first labor force forecast results, labor force technology change forecast results, enterprise development forecast results, market demand change forecast results and actual labor demand values ​​at each stage of history; Align the first labor force forecast results, labor force technology change forecast results, enterprise development forecast results, market demand change forecast results and comprehensive labor demand values ​​of each historical stage according to the time stage, and then output the relationship between the first labor force forecast results, labor force technology change forecast results, enterprise development forecast results, market demand change forecast results and comprehensive labor demand values; Based on the relationship between the first labor force forecast results, the labor force technical change forecast results, the enterprise development forecast results, the market demand change forecast results and the comprehensive labor demand value, the first labor force forecast results, the labor force technical change forecast results, the enterprise development forecast results and the market demand change forecast results of each forecast stage are substituted to obtain the comprehensive labor demand forecast results of each forecast stage.

3. According to the management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis of claim 2, the relationship between the first labor forecast result, the labor technical change forecast result, the enterprise development forecast result, the market demand change forecast result and the comprehensive labor demand value is specifically expressed based on linear programming, and the specific relationship is: y ZH =c1*y DY +c2*y RY +c3*y QY +c4*y SC , where y ZH represents the comprehensive labor demand value, y DY represents the first labor force prediction result, y RY represents the prediction result of labor force technical change, y QY Represents the enterprise development forecast result, y SC It represents the forecast result of market demand change, c1 represents the linear coefficient of the first labor force forecast result, c2 represents the linear coefficient of the forecast result of labor technical change, c3 represents the linear coefficient of the enterprise development forecast result, and c4 represents the linear coefficient of the forecast result of market demand change.

4. According to the management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis of claim 1, the specific analysis of analyzing the historical labor demand information, identifying the labor demand change trend, and outputting the first labor forecast result is: The historical labor demand information specifically includes the labor demand in each historical stage, seasonal fluctuations of the enterprise's labor force, and changes in the enterprise's labor demand during holidays; The trend part of the first labor force forecast result is obtained based on the labor demand in each historical stage, the seasonal part of the first labor force forecast result is obtained based on the seasonal fluctuation of the enterprise labor force, and the holiday effect part of the first labor force forecast result is obtained based on the change of labor demand during the enterprise labor holidays; The trend part, seasonal part and holiday effect part of the first labor force forecast result are combined to obtain the first labor force forecast result for each forecast stage.

5. According to the management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis in claim 1, the specific analysis of analyzing the labor technical change information, identifying the labor technical change trend, and outputting the labor technical change prediction results is: The information on changes in the skills of the workforce specifically refers to the skill levels of the workforce at various historical stages; The skill levels of workers at different stages of history are sorted by time to obtain a time series of skill levels and identify the trend of technical changes of workers; The prediction results of technical changes of labor force in each prediction stage are output based on the time series of skill level, that is, the prediction results of skill level of labor force in each prediction stage.

6. According to the management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis in claim 1, the specific analysis of analyzing based on enterprise development information, identifying enterprise development trends, and outputting enterprise development forecast results is: The enterprise development information specifically refers to the R&D investment intensity of the enterprise at each historical stage; Sort the R&D investment intensity at each historical stage by time to obtain the time series of R&D investment intensity and identify the development trend of the enterprise; The enterprise development forecast results of each forecast stage are output based on the time series of R&D investment intensity, that is, the R&D investment intensity forecast results of each forecast stage.

7. According to the management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis in claim 1, the specific analysis of analyzing market demand change information, identifying market demand change trends, and outputting market demand change forecast results is as follows: The market demand change information specifically refers to the market share of enterprises at various historical stages; Sort the market share of enterprises in each historical stage by time, obtain the time series of market share, and identify the trend of market demand changes; The market demand change forecast results for each forecast stage are output based on the time series of market share, that is, the market share forecast results for each forecast stage.

8. According to the management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis in claim 2, a management and coordination plan is output based on the comprehensive labor demand forecast results, and the specific analysis of adjusting and responding to changes in labor demand at each stage is as follows: Adjust the allocation and deployment of labor resources in each forecast stage based on the comprehensive labor demand forecast results in each forecast stage. The specific allocation and deployment includes the implementation of personnel recruitment plans, employee skills training plans, personnel deployment and work allocation in each forecast stage; Set a monitoring period for the comprehensive labor demand forecast results, obtain the comprehensive labor demand forecast results and actual labor demand at each forecast stage within the monitoring period, and then obtain the average difference between the comprehensive labor demand forecast results and the actual labor demand, compare the average difference with the deviation threshold, and when the average difference exceeds the deviation threshold, trigger the comprehensive labor demand forecast adjustment mechanism to obtain the labor demand information, labor personnel technology change information, enterprise development information and market demand change information within the monitoring period, and update and optimize the relationship between the first labor forecast result, labor personnel technology change forecast result, enterprise development forecast result, market demand change forecast result and the comprehensive labor demand value.

9. A management and coordination system based on labor demand analysis, applying a management and coordination method based on labor demand analysis as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 8, characterized in that: include: Data acquisition module, used to obtain historical labor demand information, labor technical change information, enterprise development information and market demand change information; A first labor force forecasting module, used to analyze based on historical labor demand information, identify labor demand change trends, and output a first labor force forecasting result; The personnel technology prediction module is used to analyze the technology change information of the labor force, identify the trend of the technology change of the labor force, and output the prediction results of the technology change of the labor force; The enterprise development forecast module is used to analyze enterprise development information, identify enterprise development trends, and output enterprise development forecast results; The market demand forecasting module is used to analyze market demand change information, identify market demand change trends, and output market demand change forecast results; The comprehensive labor force forecasting module is used to conduct a comprehensive analysis based on the first labor force forecasting results, the labor force technical change forecasting results, the enterprise development forecasting results and the market demand change forecasting results, and output the comprehensive labor force demand forecasting results at each stage; The management and coordination module is used to output management and coordination plans based on the comprehensive labor demand forecast results and to adjust and respond to changes in labor demand at each stage.

Images