Estimation device, estimation method, and program

Abstract

To provide a technique capable of accurately estimating heat energy consumption of a heat utilization facility without requiring an expensive flowmeter and without stopping a factory.SOLUTION: An estimation device (1) includes an estimation unit (11) configured to acquire a first measurement value from each of a plurality of heat utilization facilities (21 to 22) and calculate an estimation value of thermal energy consumption of each of the plurality of heat utilization facilities (21 to 22) from the first measurement value, a correction value calculation unit (12) configured to calculate a correction value from an analysis value of a drain flow rate of an entire plant (2) including the plurality of heat utilization facilities (21 to 22) calculated by a simulator (3) and an actual measurement value of the drain flow rate of the entire plant (2), and an estimation unit (13) configured to estimate the thermal energy consumption of each of the plurality of heat utilization facilities (21 to 22) by correcting the estimation value using the correction value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 4

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an estimation device, an estimation method, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] In general, determining the thermal energy consumed by heat utilization equipment is important from the perspective of energy reduction. Furthermore, to determine the energy, it is necessary to measure the temperature and flow rate of steam input to the heat utilization equipment. An invention disclosed in the following Patent Document 1 is a related technology.

[0003] Patent Document 1 discloses a measurement method in which the temperature of steam flowing into equipment is measured to determine the inlet steam enthalpy, the temperature of steam return water leaving the equipment is measured to determine the outlet steam enthalpy, the flow rate of the steam return water leaving the equipment is determined using a liquid ultrasonic flow meter attached to the surface of the pipe through which the steam return water flows, and the flow rate of the steam return water leaving the equipment is determined by subtracting the outlet steam enthalpy from the inlet steam enthalpy and multiplying the result by the flow rate of the steam return water to determine the steam energy input to the equipment. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2006-162380 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] When measuring steam energy using the invention described in Patent Document 1, the drain (steam return water) partially vaporizes and becomes a two-phase flow, making it impossible to measure the drain with an ultrasonic flow meter for liquids. Therefore, a flow meter capable of measuring drain containing steam is required, which is expensive. Furthermore, a condensing device must be installed, which can result in factory shutdowns and pipe breakage.

[0006] An object of one aspect of the present invention is to provide a technology that can accurately estimate the thermal energy consumed by heat utilization equipment without requiring an expensive flow meter and without shutting down a factory. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] In order to solve the above problem, an estimation device according to one embodiment of the present invention includes an estimation unit that acquires measurement values ​​including at least the temperature inside the equipment from each of a plurality of heat utilization equipment and calculates an estimated value of the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment from the measurement values; a correction value calculation unit that calculates a correction value from an analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the plurality of heat utilization equipment calculated by a simulator and an actual measured value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory; and an estimation unit that estimates the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment by correcting the estimated value using the correction value.

[0008] In order to solve the above problem, an estimation method according to one embodiment of the present invention includes the steps of acquiring measurement values ​​including at least the temperature inside the equipment from each of a plurality of heat utilization equipment, calculating an estimated value of the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment from the measurement values, calculating a correction value from an analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the plurality of heat utilization equipment calculated by a simulator and an actual measured value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory, and estimating the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment by correcting the estimated value using the correction value.

[0009] In order to solve the above problem, a program according to one embodiment of the present invention causes a computer to perform the following processes: acquiring measurement values ​​including at least the temperature inside the equipment from each of a plurality of heat utilization equipment; calculating an estimated value of the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment from the measurement values; calculating a correction value from an analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the plurality of heat utilization equipment calculated by a simulator and an actual measured value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory; and estimating the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment by correcting the estimated value using the correction value. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to accurately estimate the thermal energy consumed by heat utilization equipment without the need for an expensive flow meter and without shutting down the factory. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of the overall configuration of a factory to which an estimation device according to an embodiment of the present invention is applied; [Figure 2] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of a heating furnace, which is an example of heat utilization equipment. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining various temperatures used in the estimation device according to one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 4] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of an estimation device according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 5] 1 is a graph showing a change in temperature inside a heating furnace, which is an example of heat utilization equipment. [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the relationship between the drain flow rate before correction, the drain flow rate after correction, and the actually measured value of the drain flow rate. [Figure 7] 10 is a graph showing changes in consumed thermal energy before and after correction. [Figure 8] 4 is a flowchart illustrating a processing procedure of an estimation device according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0012] Fig. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the overall configuration of a factory to which an estimation device according to an embodiment of the present invention is applied. Fig. 1 shows an example of the configuration of a factory that utilizes heat, which is an example of a factory, and includes a heating furnace 21, a heating furnace 22, a boiler 23, piping 24, a flash tank 25, a drain flow meter 26, and a water supply tank 27.

[0013] The boiler 23 receives water stored in a water supply tank 27 and generates steam Qv by heating the water. The steam Qv generated by the boiler 23 is supplied to the heating furnaces 21 and 22, which are heat utilization facilities, via piping 24. Although only two heat utilization facilities are shown in FIG. 1, the factory may be configured to have more heat utilization facilities.

[0014] The heating furnaces 21 and 22 are heat utilization facilities that heat and harden resins such as epoxy resin. The heating furnaces 21 and 22 harden the resin poured into the mold using steam supplied from a boiler 23. Drain containing steam generated in the heating furnaces 21 and 22 (hereinafter referred to as steam drain) is discharged to a flash tank 25.

[0015] The flash tank 25 receives the high-pressure steam drain discharged from the heating furnaces 21 and 22, maintains the internal pressure at a lower level, and re-evaporates the sensible heat difference between the high-pressure steam drain and the low-pressure steam drain to produce low-pressure steam. The low-pressure steam drain is collected in a water supply tank 27 by a drain collection device.

[0016] The drain flow meter 26 measures the flow rate of the drain recovered from the flash tank 25 to the water supply tank 27. Note that since the drain recovered from the flash tank 25 to the water supply tank 27 does not contain steam, an inexpensive measuring instrument such as an ultrasonic flow meter for liquids can be used as the drain flow meter 26.

[0017] The water supply tank 27 collects drain from the flash tank 25 and supplies city water to store a predetermined amount of water, which is then supplied to the boiler 23. The flow rate of drain collected from the flash tank 25 may be calculated from the amount of water stored in the water supply tank 27, the amount of city water supplied, and the amount of water supplied to the boiler 23.

[0018] 2 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a heating furnace 21, which is an example of heat utilization equipment. Steam generated by a boiler 23 is supplied to the heating furnace 21 via a pressure regulating valve 34. Thermometers 31 and 32 are provided before and after the pressure regulating valve 34. Thermometers 31 and 32 measure the temperature of the steam supplied to the heating furnace 21.

[0019] Furthermore, the drain discharged from the heating furnace 21 is discharged to the flash tank 25 via a trap 35 that seals off steam. A thermometer 33 is provided between the heating furnace 21 and the trap 35. The thermometer 33 measures the temperature of the drain discharged from the heating furnace 21.

[0020] The heating furnace 21 is provided with a heat exchanger 211 and an object to be heated 212. The heat exchanger 211 exchanges heat with steam supplied from the boiler 23 to generate high-temperature circulating air and heat the object to be heated. The object to be heated 212 is a resin such as an epoxy resin that is to be heated, and may also include a mold and a cart.

[0021] Fig. 3 is a diagram for explaining various temperatures used in an estimation device according to one embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Fig. 3, the temperature of steam supplied from boiler 23 is a constant temperature of approximately 180°C. Pressure regulating valve 34 is adjusted so that the temperature of circulating air in heating furnace 21 is approximately 80°C to 150°C. The drain temperature in heating furnace 21 is also approximately 80°C to 150°C.

[0022] 3, the temperature of the object to be heated 212 is indicated by a dotted line, and the temperature of the object to be heated 212 rises as the temperature of the circulating air rises, but at a slower rate than the temperature of the circulating air. The temperature of the object to be heated 212 is approximately 80°C or less to 150°C.

[0023] The drain temperature measured by drain flow meter 26 is below 80°C to 100°C, and the drain temperature rises as the circulating air temperature rises. In addition, the surface temperature of heating furnace (heat utilization equipment) 21 is below 40°C, and the surface temperature of heating furnace 21 rises as the circulating air temperature rises.

[0024] <Configuration example of estimation system 100> 4 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of an estimation system 100 including the estimation device 1. The estimation system 100 includes the estimation device 1, a factory 2, and a simulator 3. The factory 2 includes the above-mentioned heating furnace (hereinafter also referred to as the first heat utilization facility) 21 and heating furnace (hereinafter also referred to as the second heat utilization facility) 22, and also includes the above-mentioned boiler 23, piping 24, flash tank 25, drain flow meter 26, feedwater tank 27, etc.

[0025] The heating furnace 21, which is the first heat utilization equipment, and the heating furnace 22, which is the second heat utilization equipment, output information such as temperature history data within the equipment, the weight of the object to be heated, the initial temperature of the object to be heated, the equipment outer shape, the surface area of ​​the object to be heated, etc. as first measurement values ​​to the estimation device 1.

[0026] For example, the temperature inside the equipment measured by the thermometers provided in the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 may be accumulated for one day and used as the temperature history data inside the equipment. It is also assumed that the weight of the object to be heated, the initial temperature of the object to be heated, the outer shape of the equipment, and the surface area of ​​the object to be heated have been measured in advance.

[0027] The estimation device 1 includes an estimation unit 11, a correction value calculation unit 12, and an estimation unit 13. The estimation unit 11 receives first measurement values ​​from each of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22, and calculates estimated values ​​of the thermal energy consumed by each of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 from the first measurement values.

[0028] The circulating air temperature of the heat utilization equipment is T air (K), the temperature of the heated object 212 is T object (K), the surface area of ​​the object to be heated 212 is A object (m 2 ), and the heat transfer coefficient between the circulating air and the object to be heated 212 is h air-object (W / (m 2 K), the estimation unit 11 calculates the thermal energy Q required to heat the object 212. air (W) is calculated using the following formula (1).

[0029]

number

[0030] In addition, the temperature of the object to be heated 212 at time t is T object t (K), the heat capacity of the heated object 212 is C object (J / K), the estimation unit 11 calculates the temperature T of the object to be heated 212 at a time Δt later. object t+Δt (K) is calculated using the above (Equation 1) and the following (Equation 2). object t+Δt Since the values ​​other than are known, the temperature T can be calculated by substituting the thermal energy calculated in (Equation 1) into (Equation 2). object t+Δt can be calculated.

[0031]

number

[0032] The heat capacity C of the object to be heated 212 object(J / K) is the specific heat of the object being heated, c p (J / (K·kg)) and the weight of the object to be heated 212 m object (kg) using the following formula (Formula 3):

[0033] C object =c p ×m object ...(Formula 3) In addition, the estimation unit 11 calculates the thermal energy Q required to heat the object 212. air (W) and the heat dissipation energy Q from the heat utilization equipment out Therefore, the estimated value of the consumed thermal energy of the heat utilization equipment, Q, is calculated using the following equation (Equation 4). load Calculate.

[0034] Q load =Q air +Q out ...(Formula 4) Also, the heat transfer coefficient between the heat utilization equipment and the indoor air is h furnace-room (W / (m 2 K), the surface area of ​​the heat utilization equipment is A furnace (m 2 ), and the surface temperature of the heat utilization equipment is T furnace , the indoor temperature is T room (K), the calculation unit 11 calculates the heat dissipation energy Q out (W) is calculated using the following formula (Formula 5).

[0035] Q out =h furnace-room ×A furnace ×(T furnace -T room )...(Formula 5) The estimation unit 11 outputs the calculated estimated values ​​of the thermal energy consumption of each of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 to the simulator 3 and the estimation unit 13.

[0036] Simulator 3 is a general dynamic process simulator that analyzes output process values ​​from input process values ​​based on a physical model that simulates the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22. More specifically, simulator 3 is a dynamic simulator that calculates the material balance, heat balance, vapor-liquid equilibrium, and reaction status of each unit that simulates a heating furnace, flash tank, etc., from theoretical formulas for each calculation cycle, and expresses the changes over time in the pressure, flow rate, and enthalpy of the heat medium flowing in each unit and piping.

[0037] Hereinafter, the output process value calculated by the simulator 3 will be referred to as the analytical value. Here, the analytical value of the drain flow rate is analyzed from the estimated values ​​of the thermal energy consumed by each of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22, and the analytical values ​​of the drain flow rate of each of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 are summed to obtain the analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory.

[0038] Figure 5 is a graph showing changes in furnace temperature in heating furnace 21, an example of heat utilization equipment. In the graph shown in Figure 5, the horizontal axis represents time and the vertical axis represents furnace temperature (temperature inside the equipment). Near the time 19:12:00 shown in Figure 5, the amount of steam supplied from boiler 23 to heating furnace 21 increases due to adjustment of pressure regulating valve 34, causing the furnace temperature to rise. Thereafter, a temperature rise period continues until just before 0:00:00, after which the temperature becomes stable.

[0039] The correction value calculation unit 12 calculates a correction value from the actual measured value (hereinafter also referred to as the second measured value) of the drain flow rate of the entire factory measured by the drain flow meter 26 shown in Figure 1 and the analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory calculated by the simulator 3.

[0040] For example, the correction value calculation unit 12 calculates the average value of the actual measured values ​​of the drain flow rate during the stable period of the furnace temperature shown in Fig. 5 and the average value of the analytical values ​​of the drain flow rate during the stable period. Then, the correction value calculation unit 12 determines the correction value for the stable period by dividing the average value of the actual measured values ​​of the drain flow rate during the stable period by the average value of the analytical values ​​of the drain flow rate. For example, as described below, the correction value for the stable period is 1.5.

[0041] That is, the correction value calculation unit 12 calculates a correction value to be used to correct the estimated value of the thermal energy consumed by each of the multiple heat utilization equipment from the statistical value of the analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the multiple heat utilization equipment within a specified period calculated by the simulator 3 and the statistical value of the actual measured value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory within a specified period.

[0042] The correction value may also be optimized by trial and error or Bayesian optimization so as to minimize the error between the measured value and the analytical value of the drain flow rate.

[0043] Similarly, the correction value calculation unit 12 calculates the average value of the actual measured values ​​of the drain flow rate during the rise period of the furnace temperature shown in Fig. 5 and the average value of the analytical values ​​of the drain flow rate during the rise period.The correction value calculation unit 12 then divides the average value of the actual measured values ​​of the drain flow rate during the rise period by the average value of the analytical values ​​of the drain flow rate, and sets the value as the correction value for the rise period.For example, as described below, the correction value for the rise period is 0.7.

[0044] The estimation unit 13 estimates the actual thermal energy consumed by each of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 by multiplying the estimated values ​​of the thermal energy consumed by each of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 calculated by the estimation unit 11 by the correction value calculated by the correction value calculation unit 12.

[0045] The error between the analytical value and the actual measured value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory correlates with the error between the estimated value and the actual value of the consumed thermal energy. Therefore, the estimation unit 13 can accurately estimate the consumed thermal energy of the heat utilization equipment by correcting the estimated value of each of the multiple heat utilization equipment using the correction value calculated by the correction value calculation unit 12.

[0046] 6 is a diagram showing the relationship between the drain flow rate before correction, the drain flow rate after correction, and the actual measured value of the drain flow rate. The drain flow rate before correction corresponds to the sum of the estimated values ​​of the drain flow rates of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 calculated by the estimation unit 11, and shows that the error between the estimated value and the actual measured value of the drain flow rate measured by the drain flow meter 26 is 22.6%.

[0047] The corrected drain flow rate corresponds to the sum of the estimated drain flow rates of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 multiplied by the correction value, which indicates that the error between the estimated drain flow rate measured by the drain flow meter 26 and the actual measured value has been reduced to 3.2%.

[0048] Fig. 7 is a graph showing the change in consumed heat energy before and after correction. In the graph shown in Fig. 7, the horizontal axis represents time and the vertical axis represents consumed heat energy, with the consumed heat energy before correction (estimated value of consumed heat energy) shown by a dotted line and the consumed heat energy after correction (estimated value of actual consumed heat energy) shown by a solid line.

[0049] 7, during the period from 0:00:00 to 19:12:00, during which the furnace temperature is stable, the estimation unit 13 estimates the actual consumed thermal energy using a correction value of 1.5. Furthermore, during the period from 19:12:00 to 23:40:00, during which the furnace temperature is rising, the estimation unit 13 estimates the actual consumed thermal energy using a correction value of 0.7. After 23:40:00, the estimation unit 13 again estimates the actual consumed thermal energy using the correction value of 1.5.

[0050] <Processing Procedure of Estimation Device 1> 8 is a flowchart illustrating the processing steps of an estimation device according to one embodiment of the present invention. First, the estimation unit 11 acquires first measurement values ​​from the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22. Then, the correction value calculation unit 12 acquires second measurement values, which are actual measurements of the drain flow rate of the entire factory measured by the drain flow meter 26 shown in FIG. 1 (S11).

[0051] Next, the estimation unit 11 calculates estimated values ​​of the consumed thermal energy of each of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 from the first measurement values ​​of each of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22, and outputs the calculated estimated values ​​of the consumed thermal energy to the simulator 3 and the estimation unit 13 (S12).

[0052] Next, the correction value calculation unit 12 calculates a correction value from the analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 calculated by the simulator 3 and the actual measured value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory measured by the drain flow meter 26 shown in Figure 1 (S14).

[0053] Finally, the estimation unit 13 estimates the actual thermal energy consumption of each of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 by multiplying the estimated values ​​of the thermal energy consumption of each of the first heat utilization equipment 21 and the second heat utilization equipment 22 calculated by the estimation unit 11 by the correction value calculated by the correction value calculation unit 12 (S15).

[0054] <Effects of the design method> As described above, according to the estimation device 1 of this embodiment, the estimation unit 11 acquires measured values ​​including at least the temperature inside the heat utilization equipment from each of the plurality of pieces of heat utilization equipment, and calculates an estimated value of the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of pieces of heat utilization equipment from the measured values. Because the measured values ​​do not include the steam flow rate, an expensive flow meter is not required, and the estimated value of the thermal energy consumed by the heat utilization equipment can be calculated without stopping the factory.

[0055] Furthermore, the correction value calculation unit 12 calculates a correction value from the analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the plurality of heat utilization facilities calculated by the simulator 3 and the actual measured value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory. The error between the analytical value and the actual measured value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory correlates with the error between the estimated value and the actual value of the consumed thermal energy. Therefore, the estimation unit 13 can accurately estimate the consumed thermal energy of the heat utilization facilities by correcting the estimated value of each of the plurality of heat utilization facilities using this correction value.

[0056] Furthermore, the correction value calculation unit 12 divides the period into one in which the temperature inside the heat utilization equipment is rising and one in which the temperature inside the heat utilization equipment is stable, and calculates a correction value for each period. Therefore, the correction value calculation unit 12 can calculate a correction value corresponding to the temperature change inside the heat utilization equipment, and the estimation unit 13 can correct the estimated value for each of the multiple heat utilization equipment using the correction value corresponding to the temperature change, thereby more accurately estimating the thermal energy consumption of the heat utilization equipment.

[0057] [Software implementation example] The control block of the estimation device 1 (particularly the estimation unit 11) may be realized by a logic circuit (hardware) formed on an integrated circuit (IC chip) or the like, or may be realized by software.

[0058] In the latter case, the estimation device 1 includes a computer that executes instructions of a program, which is software that realizes each function. The computer includes, for example, one or more processors and a computer-readable recording medium that stores the program. The object of the present invention is achieved by the processor reading and executing the program from the recording medium in the computer. The processor may be, for example, a central processing unit (CPU). The recording medium may be a "non-transitory tangible medium," such as a read-only memory (ROM), a tape, a disk, a card, a semiconductor memory, or a programmable logic circuit. The device may also include a random access memory (RAM) for loading the program. The program may be supplied to the computer via any transmission medium (such as a communication network or broadcast waves) capable of transmitting the program. One aspect of the present invention may also be realized in the form of a data signal embedded in a carrier wave, in which the program is embodied by electronic transmission.

[0059] 〔summary〕 The estimation device according to aspect 1 of the present invention includes an estimation unit that acquires measurement values ​​including at least the temperature inside the equipment from each of a plurality of heat utilization equipment and calculates an estimated value of the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment from the measurement values; a correction value calculation unit that calculates a correction value from an analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the plurality of heat utilization equipment calculated by a simulator and an actual measurement value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory; and an estimation unit that estimates the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment by correcting the estimated value using the correction value.

[0060] In the estimation device according to aspect 2 of the present invention, in the above aspect 1, the correction value calculation unit divides the period during which the temperature in the heat utilization equipment is rising into a period during which the temperature in the heat utilization equipment is stable, and calculates a correction value for each period.

[0061] In the estimation device according to a third aspect of the present invention, in the first or second aspect, the consumed thermal energy is the sum of the thermal energy required to heat the object to be heated and the heat radiation energy of the heat utilization facility.

[0062] The estimation device according to a fourth aspect of the present invention is the device according to the third aspect, wherein the temperature inside the heat utilization facility is T air , the temperature of the object to be heated is T object , the surface area of ​​the object to be heated is A object , the heat transfer coefficient between the circulating air and the object to be heated is h air-object Then, the calculation unit calculates the thermal energy Q required to heat the object to be heated. air is calculated using the following formula (1).

[0063]

number

[0064] The estimation device according to a fifth aspect of the present invention is the same as in the fourth aspect, in which the temperature of the object to be heated at time t is T object t , the heat capacity of the object to be heated is C objectThen, the estimation unit calculates the temperature T of the object to be heated at a time Δt later. object t+Δt is calculated using the above (Equation 1) and the following (Equation 2).

[0065]

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[0066] The estimation device according to a sixth aspect of the present invention is the device according to any one of the third to fifth aspects, wherein the heat transfer coefficient between the heat utilization equipment and the indoor air is h furnace-room , the surface area of ​​the heat utilization equipment is A furnace , the surface temperature of the heat utilization equipment is T furnace , the indoor temperature is T room Then, the calculation unit calculates the heat dissipation energy Q out 4. The estimation device according to claim 3, wherein the estimation device calculates the following equation (5):

[0067] Q out =h furnace-room ×A furnace ×(T furnace -T room )...(Formula 5) The estimation method according to aspect 7 of the present invention includes the steps of acquiring measurement values ​​including at least the temperature inside the equipment from each of a plurality of heat utilization equipment, calculating an estimated value of the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment from the measurement values, calculating a correction value from an analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the plurality of heat utilization equipment calculated by a simulator and an actual measured value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory, and estimating the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment by correcting the estimated value using the correction value.

[0068] A program according to aspect 8 of the present invention causes a computer to perform the following processes: acquiring measurement values ​​including at least the temperature inside the equipment from each of a plurality of heat utilization equipment; calculating an estimated value of the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment from the measurement values; calculating a correction value from an analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the plurality of heat utilization equipment calculated by a simulator and an actual measured value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory; and estimating the thermal energy consumed by each of the plurality of heat utilization equipment by correcting the estimated value using the correction value.

[0069] [Additional Notes] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the claims. Embodiments obtained by appropriately combining the technical means disclosed in different embodiments are also included in the technical scope of the present invention. [Explanation of symbols]

[0070] 1 Estimation device 2. Factory 3. Simulator 11 Estimation Department 12 Correction value calculation section 13 Estimation part 21 1st heat utilization equipment 22 Second heat utilization equipment 23 Boiler 24 Piping 25 Flash Tank 26 Drain flow meter 27 Water Tank 31~33 Thermometer 34 Pressure Regulating Valve 35 Trap 100 Estimation System 211 Heat exchanger 212 Heating object

Claims

1. an estimation unit that acquires, from each of a plurality of heat utilization facilities, measurement values ​​including at least the temperature inside the heat utilization facilities, and calculates an estimated value of the consumed thermal energy of each of the plurality of heat utilization facilities from the measurement values; a correction value calculation unit that calculates a correction value from an analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the plurality of heat utilization facilities calculated by a simulator and an actual measurement value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory; an estimation unit that estimates the thermal energy consumption of each of the plurality of heat utilization facilities by correcting the estimated value using the correction value.

2. The estimation device according to claim 1 , wherein the correction value calculation unit divides a period into a period in which the temperature in the heat utilization equipment is rising and a period in which the temperature in the heat utilization equipment is stable, and calculates a correction value for each period.

3. The estimation device according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the consumed thermal energy is a sum of thermal energy required to heat the object to be heated and heat radiation energy of the heat utilization equipment.

4. The temperature inside the heat utilization equipment is T ａｉｒ , the temperature of the object to be heated is T ｏｂｊｅｃｔ , the surface area of ​​the object to be heated is A ｏｂｊｅｃｔ , the heat transfer coefficient between the circulating air and the object to be heated is h ａｉｒ－ｏｂｊｅｃｔ Then, the calculation unit calculates the thermal energy Q required to heat the object to be heated. ａｉｒ 4. The estimation device according to claim 3, wherein the calculation is performed by the following (Equation 1): [Equation 1]

5. The temperature of the object to be heated at time t is T ｏｂｊｅｃｔ ｔ , the heat capacity of the object to be heated is C ｏｂｊｅｃｔ Then, the estimation unit calculates the temperature T of the object to be heated at a time Δt later. ｏｂｊｅｃｔ ｔ＋Δｔ The estimation device according to claim 4 , wherein the following equation (2) is used to calculate the following equation (2): [Equation 2]

6. The heat transfer coefficient between the heat utilization equipment and the indoor air is h ｆｕｒｎａｃｅ－ｒｏｏｍ , the surface area of ​​the heat utilization equipment is A ｆｕｒｎａｃｅ , the surface temperature of the heat utilization equipment is T ｆｕｒｎａｃｅ , the indoor temperature is T ｒｏｏｍ Then, the calculation unit calculates the heat dissipation energy Q ｏｕｔ The estimation device according to claim 3, wherein the estimation device calculates the following equation (3): Q ｏｕｔ =h ｆｕｒｎａｃｅ－ｒｏｏｍ ×A ｆｕｒｎａｃｅ ×(T) ｆｕｒｎａｃｅ -T ｒｏｏｍ ) ・・・(Formula 3)

7. acquiring, from each of a plurality of heat utilization facilities, a measurement value including at least an internal temperature of the heat utilization facility; calculating an estimated value of consumed thermal energy of each of the plurality of heat utilization facilities from the measured values; calculating a correction value from an analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the plurality of heat utilization facilities calculated by a simulator and an actual measurement value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory; and correcting the estimated value using the correction value to estimate the thermal energy consumption of each of the plurality of heat utilization facilities.

8. On the computer, A process of acquiring, from each of a plurality of heat utilization facilities, measurement values ​​including at least the temperature inside the heat utilization facilities; A process of calculating an estimated value of consumed thermal energy of each of the plurality of heat utilization facilities from the measured values; a process of calculating a correction value from an analytical value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory including the plurality of heat utilization facilities calculated by a simulator and an actual measurement value of the drain flow rate of the entire factory; and a program for executing a process of estimating the thermal energy consumption of each of the plurality of heat utilization facilities by correcting the estimated value using the correction value.

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