Reliability determination method, device, equipment and medium for energy storage distribution system

Abstract

The embodiment of the present invention discloses a reliability determination method, device, equipment and medium for an energy storage distribution system. The method determines the expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply for each system load point in the target energy storage distribution system, and determines the load point outage duration of the system load point according to the expected outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage device, and then determines the reliability index of the target energy storage distribution system according to the load point outage duration of each system load point, so as to quantify the reliability of the distribution system containing the energy storage device, realize the determination of the reliability of the distribution system, and thus facilitate the analysis and improve the reliability of the distribution system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] Embodiments of the present invention relate to the technical field of power distribution networks, and in particular to a reliability determination method, device, equipment and medium for an energy storage power distribution system. Background Art

[0002] The distribution network is located at the end of the power grid, close to the end of power transmission. It has many components and a complex structure, which directly affects the power supply status of users. At present, the reliability level of the distribution network is mainly improved by formulating distribution network construction standards, increasing investment in power grid construction, optimizing reliability algorithm models, and developing reliability analysis software. The average annual power outage time in developed cities in the world is less than 1 hour. Among them, Singapore's reliability level ranks first in the world. In 2011, it had reached an average annual power outage time of less than 1 minute for users; the average power outage time for users in Munich was about 15 minutes, and the average annual power outage time for users in New York City was less than 1 hour in 2017. The average annual power outage time in urban areas of my country from 2015 to 2019 was between 4.08 and 5.20 hours per household, which is still far behind the reliability level of developed countries and regions. However, the average annual power outage in some cities such as Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Xiamen, etc. is less than 1 hour, reaching the world's leading level. Therefore, the level of reliability varies greatly, and there is still great potential for improvement.

[0003] Therefore, in order to improve the reliability of the distribution network, it is necessary to quantify the reliability first and propose a method to determine the system reliability. Then, based on the determined reliability index, the system can be analyzed to improve the system reliability. Summary of the invention

[0004] Embodiments of the present invention provide a method, device, equipment and medium for determining the reliability of an energy storage distribution system, so as to quantify the reliability of the distribution system containing energy storage equipment and determine the reliability of the distribution system.

[0005] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a reliability determination method for an energy storage distribution system, the method comprising:

[0006] Determine each system load point of the target energy storage and distribution system, wherein the target energy storage and distribution system includes system load points, a main power supply, and energy storage equipment;

[0007] Determining an expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the primary power supply;

[0008] Determine the load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point, and the capacity of the energy storage device;

[0009] Based on the load point power outage duration of each of the system load points, a reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system is determined.

[0010] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a reliability determination device for an energy storage distribution system, the device comprising:

[0011] A load point determination module, used to determine each system load point of a target energy storage and distribution system, wherein the target energy storage and distribution system includes system load points, a main power supply and energy storage equipment;

[0012] An outage duration determination module, used to determine an estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply;

[0013] A power outage duration determination module, used to determine the load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage device;

[0014] The reliability determination module is used to determine the reliability index of the target energy storage distribution system based on the load point power outage duration of each system load point.

[0015] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, the electronic device comprising:

[0016] one or more processors;

[0017] a storage device for storing one or more programs,

[0018] When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors implement the reliability determination method of the energy storage distribution system provided in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0019] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements a reliability determination method for an energy storage distribution system as provided in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0020] The embodiments of the above invention have the following advantages or beneficial effects:

[0021] By determining the expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply for each system load point in the target energy storage distribution system, and determining the load point outage duration of the system load point based on the expected outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage equipment, and then determining the reliability index of the target energy storage distribution system based on the load point outage duration of each system load point, the reliability of the distribution system containing the energy storage equipment is quantified, and the reliability of the distribution system is determined, thereby facilitating the analysis and improvement of the reliability of the distribution system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0022] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the exemplary embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required to describe the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings introduced are only drawings of a part of the embodiments to be described in the present invention, rather than all the drawings. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0023] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a reliability determination method for an energy storage distribution system provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0024] Figure 2A A schematic flow chart of a reliability determination method for an energy storage distribution system provided in Embodiment 2 of the present invention;

[0025] Figure 2B A flow chart of a method for determining a load point power outage duration provided in a second embodiment of the present invention;

[0026] Figure 2C A system reliability simulation curve of full access of energy storage devices of different capacities provided in the second embodiment of the present invention;

[0027] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the structure of a reliability determination device for an energy storage and distribution system provided in Embodiment 3 of the present invention;

[0028] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided in Embodiment 4 of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0029] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It is to be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention, rather than to limit the present invention. It should also be noted that, for ease of description, only parts related to the present invention, rather than all structures, are shown in the accompanying drawings.

[0030] Embodiment 1

[0031] Figure 1 A flow chart of a reliability determination method for an energy storage distribution system provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention is provided. This embodiment is applicable to the case of determining the reliability index of a distribution system including an energy storage device. The method can be performed by a reliability determination device for an energy storage distribution system, which can be implemented by hardware and / or software. The method specifically includes the following steps:

[0032] S110. Determine each system load point of a target energy storage and distribution system, wherein the target energy storage and distribution system includes system load points, a main power supply, and energy storage equipment.

[0033] The target energy storage and distribution system may be a distribution system that needs to predict reliability indicators. In this embodiment, the target energy storage and distribution system includes a main power supply, an energy storage device, and a plurality of system load points.

[0034] Specifically, the system load point may be a point in the target energy storage and distribution system where a user is connected to supply power to the user; the main power supply may be the default power supply of the target energy storage and distribution system; the energy storage device may be an alternative power supply of the target energy storage and distribution system. Exemplarily, the energy storage device may be a battery energy storage system.

[0035] In this embodiment, each system load point is powered by the main power supply by default. When a circuit breaker failure or switch failure occurs at a system load point, the energy storage device can be used to supply power. It should be noted that the various system load points of the target energy storage and distribution system include system load points connected to the energy storage device and system load points not connected to the energy storage device. Specifically, this embodiment first determines the various system load points of the target energy storage and distribution system, and then predicts the power outage duration of each system load point.

[0036] S120. Determine an estimated outage duration of a system load point relative to a main power supply.

[0037] Among them, when the target energy storage distribution system does not have access to the transfer power supply line, the estimated outage duration can be the repair duration when the system load point fails; when the target energy storage distribution system has access to the transfer power supply line and the transfer power supply line access is successful, the estimated outage duration can be the transfer power supply duration of the system load point; when the target energy storage distribution system has access to the transfer power supply line and the transfer power supply line access fails, the estimated outage duration can be the repair duration of the system load point. Exemplarily, the repair duration of the system load point can be the estimated duration of repairing the system load point fault, such as the repair duration can be the circuit breaker repair duration, or the repair duration can be the switch repair duration, etc., or the repair duration can be the sum of the circuit breaker repair duration and the switch repair duration.

[0038] Optionally, determining the expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply includes: determining the expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply based on the failure rate of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the repair time of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the transfer success rate of the system load point and the transfer time of the system load point.

[0039] In this optional implementation, the target energy storage and distribution system has access to the transfer power supply line, and each system load point can access the energy storage equipment of the target energy storage and distribution system by accessing the transfer power supply line. Considering that each system load point has successful access and failed access when actually accessing the transfer power supply line, and in the stage of predicting the expected downtime of the system load point, it is impossible to accurately know whether the system load point can successfully access the transfer power supply line. Therefore, the expected downtime of the system load point can be determined by the failure rate of the system load point, the transfer success rate of the system load point, the repair time of the system load point, the transfer success rate of the system load point, and the transfer time of the system load point.

[0040] Among them, the power transfer success rate of the system load point can be the average power transfer success rate obtained by statistics of historical data; or, it can also be the power transfer success rate corresponding to the load obtained by statistics of historical data of each system load point with a load amount similar to that of the system load point. Of course, the power transfer failure rate of the system load point can be determined according to the power transfer success rate of the system load point. The power transfer duration of the system load point can be the time required for the system load point to access the power transfer line. The power transfer duration can be the average access duration obtained by statistics of historical data, or it can be the access duration corresponding to the load amount of the system load point obtained by statistics of historical data.

[0041] Specifically, considering that when the transfer fails, the estimated outage duration of the system load point can be the repair duration of the system load point, and when the transfer is successful, the estimated outage duration of the system load point can be the transfer duration of the system load point, therefore, the transfer failure rate of the system load point can be multiplied by the repair duration of the system load point, the transfer success rate of the system load point can be multiplied by the transfer duration of the system load point, and the results of the two multiplications can be summed as the estimated outage duration of the system load point. Through this optional method, it is possible to accurately predict the estimated outage duration of the load point relative to the main power supply in combination with the actual transfer situation of the load point, thereby improving the accuracy of the estimated outage duration, and further improving the accuracy of the reliability index determined in this embodiment.

[0042] Further, in a specific implementation manner, the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply is determined based on the failure rate of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the repair time of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the transfer success rate of the system load point, and the transfer time of the system load point, satisfying the following formula:

[0043] t stop (n) = (1-r trans )r fail (n)t repair (n)+r trans r fail (n)t trans

[0044] Among them, t stop (n) is the expected outage duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, r trans is the transfer success rate, r fail (n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, t repair (n) is the repair time of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, t trans The transfer duration.

[0045] The above formula can be used to calculate the expected outage duration of each system load point in the target energy storage distribution system to determine the expected outage duration of each system load point. Specifically, in the above formula, 1-r trans represents the transfer failure rate, (1-r trans )r fail (n)t repair (n) is the product of the power transfer failure rate, the system load point failure rate, and the repair time when a failure occurs, indicating the probability of downtime corresponding to the power transfer failure; r trans r fail (n)t trans It is the product of the transfer success rate, the system load point failure rate, and the transfer duration, which represents the probability of downtime corresponding to a successful transfer. By adding the probability of downtime corresponding to a failed transfer to the probability of a successful transfer, we can get the estimated downtime of the system load point relative to the main power supply under both the transfer failure and the transfer success.

[0046] Through this formula, it is possible to combine the successful and failed transfer situations of the load point to accurately predict the expected outage duration of the load point relative to the main power supply, thereby improving the accuracy of the expected outage duration and further improving the accuracy of the reliability index determined in this embodiment.

[0047] In this embodiment, before determining the expected outage duration of each system load point relative to the main power supply, the repair duration of each system load point relative to the main power supply can also be determined. That is, the reliability determination method of the energy storage distribution system provided in this embodiment also includes: determining the repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply; the repair duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply satisfies the following formula,

[0048]

[0049] Among them, t repair (n) is the repair time of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, L(n) is the cable length of the nth system load point, r L is the cable failure rate at the system load point, t L is the cable power recovery time, n s (n) is the sum of the number of circuit breakers and switches at the nth system load point, r s is the failure rate of circuit breakers and switches, t s is the time it takes for the switch to restore power, r T is the failure rate of distribution transformer, t T is the transformer power recovery time, r fail (n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply. fail (n) = L(n)r L +n s (n)r s +r T .

[0050] Specifically, combined with the actual engineering data of the distribution network, the failure rates of circuit breakers and switches in the distribution system are similar. Therefore, the failures of circuit breakers and switches can be analyzed uniformly. s Expressed as the failure rate of circuit breakers and switches, n s (n) is the sum of the number of circuit breakers and switches at the nth system load point. In the above formula, the cable length L(n) can be expressed in kilometers (km), and the cable failure rate r L The unit can be times / kilometer·year (times / km·year), the failure rate of circuit breakers and switches r s The unit can be times / 100 units / year, and the failure rate of distribution transformers is r T The unit can be times / 100 units / year, and the system load point failure rate r fail The unit of (n) can be times / 100 units / year, and the repair time of the system load point is t repair The unit of (n) can be hour / time, and the cable power recovery time t L , Switch power recovery time t s, Transformer power recovery time t T The unit can be hour / time.

[0051] The above formula can be used to calculate the repair time of each system load point in the target energy storage distribution system to determine the repair time of each system load point, and then determine the expected outage time of each system load point based on the repair time of each system load point. L t L is the product of the cable length, cable failure rate and cable power-recovery time, indicating the probability of repair time corresponding to the cable failure; n s (n)r s t s It is the product of the sum of the number of circuit breakers and switches, the failure rate of circuit breakers and switches, and the time it takes to restore power to the switch, indicating the probability of repair time corresponding to the failure of circuit breakers and switches; r T t T It is the product of the failure rate of distribution transformers and the time it takes to restore power to the transformer, indicating the probability of repair time corresponding to transformer failure. Specifically, the probability of repair time corresponding to cable failure, the probability of repair time corresponding to circuit breaker and switch failure, and the probability of repair time corresponding to transformer failure are added together, and the result of the addition is divided by the failure rate of the main power supply to obtain the repair time of the system load point.

[0052] Through this formula, it is possible to accurately predict the repair time of the load point relative to the main power supply based on the actual situation of cable, switch or transformer failure at the load point, thereby improving the accuracy of the repair time and further improving the accuracy of the reliability index determined in this embodiment.

[0053] It should be noted that, considering that there are system load points with the same load, cable length, and number of switches or transformers in the target energy storage and distribution system, this embodiment can also determine the repair time and / or load point outage time of other system load points with the same load, cable length, and number of switches or transformers by calculating the repair time and / or load point outage time of one of the system load points, so as to reduce the amount of calculation of the repair time and / or load point outage time of each system load point and improve the efficiency of determining the reliability index of the energy storage and distribution system.

[0054] S130: Determine the load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the expected outage duration, the load point information of the system load point, and the capacity of the energy storage device.

[0055] The load point information of the system load point may include whether the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device, and the power outage missing amount of the system load point. In one embodiment, based on the expected outage duration, the load point information of the system load point, and the capacity of the energy storage device, the load point power outage duration of the system load point is determined, which may be: judging whether the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device according to the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage device; when the system load point cannot be connected to the energy storage device, the expected outage duration is used as the load point power outage time; when the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device, further judging whether the capacity of the energy storage device can cover the power outage missing amount of the system load point; if so, the load point power outage duration is zero; if not, the expected outage duration is used as the load point power outage duration.

[0056] In another embodiment, taking into account the situations of successful switching and failed switching when switching to the energy storage device for power supply, when the capacity of the energy storage device can cover the power outage missing electricity, if the target energy storage distribution system successfully switches to the energy storage device for power supply, the target energy storage distribution system will not be shut down. When the target energy storage distribution system fails to switch to the energy storage device for power supply, the load point power outage duration of the system load point needs to consider the transfer power supply system. When the capacity of the energy storage device cannot cover the power outage missing electricity, even if the power supply is successfully switched to the energy storage device for power supply, the system load point will still be shut down. However, whether the energy storage device is successfully connected will affect the power outage time of the target energy storage distribution system. Therefore, optionally, the load point information includes whether the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device and the power outage missing electricity of the system load point. The load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the expected outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage device is determined, including at least one of the following:

[0057] If the system load point cannot be connected to the energy storage device, the expected outage duration is determined as the load point power outage duration of the system load point;

[0058] If the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device, and the capacity of the energy storage device is greater than or equal to the power outage loss of the system load point, then the power outage duration of the load point of the system load point is determined based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device and the expected outage duration;

[0059] If the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device, and the capacity of the energy storage device is less than the power loss of the system load point, the power outage duration of the load point of the system load point is determined based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device, the power outage duration when the energy storage device fails to switch, and the power outage duration when the energy storage device successfully switches.

[0060] Among them, the switching success rate of the energy storage device can be expressed by the reliability of the energy storage device. Specifically, when the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device, and the capacity of the energy storage device is greater than or equal to the power outage missing power at the system load point, the switching failure rate of the energy storage device is determined based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device, and the switching failure rate of the energy storage device is multiplied by the expected outage duration, and the load point power outage duration is obtained based on the multiplication result. For example, based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device and the expected outage duration, the load point power outage duration of the system load point is determined to satisfy the following formula:

[0061] t lp (n) = (1-r ESS )t stop (n)

[0062] Where, t lp (n) is the load point outage duration of the nth system load point, r ESS is the switching success rate of the energy storage device, t stop (n) is the expected outage duration of the nth system load point.

[0063] Specifically, when the system load point cannot be connected to the energy storage device, and the capacity of the energy storage device is less than the power outage missing power at the system load point, the switching failure rate of the energy storage device can be multiplied by the power outage duration of the energy storage device switching failure, and the switching success rate of the energy storage device can be multiplied by the power outage duration of the energy storage device switching success, and the sum of the two multiplication results is used as the load point power outage duration of the system load point. For example, based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device, the power outage duration of the energy storage device switching failure, and the power outage duration of the energy storage device switching success, the load point power outage duration of the system load point is determined to meet the following formula:

[0064] t lp (n) = (1-r ESS )t fail (n)+r ESS t suc (n)

[0065] Where, t lp (n) is the load point outage duration of the nth system load point, r ESs is the switching success rate of the energy storage device, t fail (n) is the power outage duration of the energy storage device switching failure corresponding to the nth system load point, t suc (n) is the power outage duration when the energy storage device corresponding to the nth system load point is successfully switched.

[0066] In this optional implementation, by combining the capacity of the energy storage device and the actual amount of power lost due to a power outage at the system load point, the power outage duration of the system load point is accurately determined, thereby improving the accuracy of the power outage duration of the load point and further improving the accuracy of the system reliability index.

[0067] It should be noted that the power outage duration when the energy storage device fails to switch can be equal to the expected outage duration of the system load point, and the power outage duration when the energy storage device successfully switches can be determined based on the repair time of the system load point, the transfer success rate, and the failure rate of the system load point.

[0068] Exemplarily, the reliability determination method of the energy storage distribution system provided in this embodiment further includes: calculating the power outage duration of successful switching of the energy storage device based on the following formula:

[0069]

[0070] Among them, t suc (n) The power outage duration when the energy storage device corresponding to the nth system load point is successfully switched, r fail (n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, r trans is the transfer success rate, t repair (n) is the repair time of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, E B (n) is the dischargeable amount of energy storage at the nth system load point, and P is the load point power.

[0071] In the above formula, 1-r trans represents the transfer failure rate, It can indicate the discharge time of the energy storage that can be discharged. It represents the difference between the repair time of the system load point and the discharge time of the dischargeable energy storage. By multiplying the transfer failure rate, the failure rate of the system load point, the repair time of the system load point and the discharge time of the dischargeable energy storage, we can get the power outage duration when the energy storage device is successfully switched.

[0072] S140. Determine the reliability index of the target energy storage distribution system based on the load point power outage duration of each system load point.

[0073] The reliability index may include an expected value of system power outage time, which may be based on an average value of load point power outage durations of each system load point.

[0074] Exemplarily, based on the load point outage duration of each system load point, the expected value of the system outage time of the target energy storage distribution system is determined to satisfy the following formula:

[0075]

[0076] Among them, N load is the number of system load points of the target energy storage distribution system, t lp (n) is the load point outage duration of the nth system load point, It is the expected value of system power outage time. The unit of the expected value of system power outage time can be hour / time.

[0077] Optionally, the reliability index includes an expected value of system power outage time and a system reliability value, and the reliability index of the target energy storage distribution system is determined based on the load point power outage duration of each system load point, including: determining the expected value of system power outage time of the target energy storage distribution system based on the load point power outage duration of each system load point; determining the system reliability value of the target energy storage distribution system based on the expected value of system power outage time.

[0078] Exemplarily, the system reliability value of the target energy storage distribution system is determined based on the expected value of the system power outage time, which can satisfy the following formula:

[0079]

[0080] in, is the expected value of system power outage time, R0 is the system reliability value, and 8760 represents the number of hours in a year.

[0081] Optionally, the reliability index may also include an expected frequency of system power outages, which may be determined based on the failure rate of each system load point, for example:

[0082]

[0083] in, is the expected frequency of power outages in the system, the unit can be times / 100 units / year, N load is the number of system load points of the target energy storage distribution system, r fail (n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point.

[0084] The technical solution of this embodiment determines the expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply for each system load point in the target energy storage distribution system, and determines the load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the expected outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage device. Then, based on the load point power outage duration of each system load point, the reliability index of the target energy storage distribution system is determined to quantify the reliability of the distribution system containing the energy storage device, thereby realizing the determination of the reliability of the distribution system, thereby facilitating the analysis and improving the reliability of the distribution system.

[0085] Embodiment 2

[0086] Figure 2A This is a flow chart of a reliability determination method for an energy storage distribution system provided in the second embodiment of the present invention, wherein the explanations of the terms that are the same or corresponding to the above embodiments are not repeated here. Figure 2A The reliability determination method of the energy storage distribution system provided in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0087] S210, determining each system load point of the target energy storage distribution system, and determining the failure rate of each system load point relative to the main power supply.

[0088] Specifically, the failure rate of each system load point relative to the main power supply can be calculated using the following formula:

[0089] r fail (n) = L(n)r L +n s (n)r s +r T (1)

[0090] S220: Based on the failure rate of each system load point, determine the repair time of each system load point relative to the main power supply.

[0091] Specifically, the following formula can be used to calculate the repair time of each system load point relative to the main power supply:

[0092]

[0093] S230. Based on the repair time of each system load point, determine the expected outage time of each system load point relative to the main power supply.

[0094] Specifically, the following formula can be used to calculate the expected outage duration of each system load point relative to the main power supply:

[0095] t stop (n) = (1-r trans )r fail (n)t repair (n)+r trans r fail (n)t trans (3)

[0096] S240, determining whether the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device. If not, determining the expected outage duration as the load point power outage duration of the system load point. If so, determining whether the capacity of the energy storage device can cover the power outage missing power of the system load point.

[0097] S250. If the capacity of the energy storage device can cover the power outage loss of the system load point, the power outage duration of the load point is determined based on the estimated outage duration of the system load point. If the capacity of the energy storage device cannot cover the power outage loss of the system load point, the power outage duration of the load point is determined based on the power outage duration of the failed switching of the energy storage device, the power outage duration of the successful switching of the energy storage device, and the switching success rate of the energy storage device.

[0098] Specifically, the load point power outage duration of the system load point can be calculated using the following formula:

[0099]

[0100] Where E(n) is the power outage loss of the nth system load point, E ENS (n) is the capacity of the energy storage device, or the amount of energy that can be discharged by the energy storage device at the nth system load point.

[0101] For example, the power outage duration t when the energy storage device fails to switch fail (n) Power outage duration t when energy storage equipment is successfully switched suc (n) can be calculated based on the following formula:

[0102]

[0103] Specifically, in combination with the above formula, this embodiment also provides a method for determining the power outage duration of a load point, such as Figure 2B As shown in FIG. 1 , a flow chart of a method for determining the duration of a load point power outage is shown. Figure 2B As shown, the method comprises the following steps:

[0104] Step 1: determine whether the system load point is connected to the energy storage system. If so, execute step 2. If not, calculate the expected outage duration of the load point based on formula (3), determine it as the power outage duration of the load point, and jump to step 8.

[0105] Step 2: determine whether the energy storage device can cover the power shortage. If yes, proceed to step 3; if no, proceed to step 4.

[0106] Step 3: Determine whether the energy storage device is successfully connected. If not, execute step 7; if yes, execute step 8;

[0107] Step 4: Determine whether the energy storage device is successfully connected. If not, execute step 5; if yes, execute step 6;

[0108] Step 5: Calculate the power outage duration t when the energy storage device fails to switch based on formula (5): fail (n);

[0109] Step 6: Calculate the power outage duration t when the energy storage device is successfully switched based on formula (5): suc (n);

[0110] Step 7: Calculate the power outage duration of the load point based on formula (4);

[0111] Step 8: Go to the next system load point n=n+1;

[0112] Step 9: Determine whether the termination condition n>N is met load If yes, then end the process; if no, then return to step 1.

[0113] S260. Determine the expected system outage frequency, expected system outage time, and system reliability value of the target energy storage distribution system according to the load point outage duration of each system load point.

[0114] Specifically, the expected system power outage frequency can be calculated based on the following formula:

[0115]

[0116] Alternatively, the expected system power outage time can be calculated based on the following formula:

[0117]

[0118] And, the system reliability value can also be calculated based on the following formula:

[0119]

[0120] In this embodiment, the reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system can be calculated in the above manner to adjust the reliability of the target energy storage and distribution system. Specifically, the target energy storage and distribution system can be adjusted to improve the reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system, for example, the position of each system load point of the target energy storage and distribution system is adjusted to increase the system reliability value of the target energy storage and distribution system; or, the capacity of the energy storage device of the target energy storage and distribution system is adjusted to increase the system reliability value of the target energy storage and distribution system. When adjusting the capacity of the energy storage device, the system reliability value of the corresponding target energy storage and distribution system can be calculated for each adjusted capacity of the energy storage device.

[0121] The above energy storage distribution system model is established by taking the power distribution system of a certain industrial park in the south as an example. The system has a total of 1266 load points. The system parameter values ​​are shown in Table 1. In this example, it is assumed that the power consumption of each load point is the expected value of the power of 1266 load points, referring to the industry standard. Since some load points in this example are not equipped with transfer points, the upper limit of the energy storage capacity for these load points is set to E(i) max1, the upper limit of energy storage capacity at other load points is set to E(i) max2 .

[0122] Table 1 Parameters of energy storage distribution system

[0123]

[0124] Assuming that all load points have energy storage devices connected, the economic cost of full access to energy storage devices of different capacities and their impact on system reliability are calculated on Matlab. The simulation results are shown in Table 2 and Figure 2C shown. Figure 2C The simulation curve of system reliability of fully connected energy storage devices of different capacities is shown. It can be seen that when the capacity of the energy storage device is between 50MWh and 60MWh, the system reliability is significantly improved; when the capacity exceeds 60MWh, the capacity of the energy storage device has no obvious effect on improving the system reliability.

[0125] Table 2 System reliability simulation results of full access to energy storage devices with different capacities

[0126]

[0127] The technical solution of this embodiment can predict the load point power outage duration of each system load point, and then determine the reliability index of the target energy storage distribution system according to the load point power outage duration of each system load point, so as to quantify the reliability of the distribution system containing energy storage equipment, thereby realizing the determination of the reliability of the distribution system, thereby facilitating the analysis and improving the reliability of the distribution system.

[0128] Embodiment 3

[0129] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a reliability determination device for an energy storage distribution system provided in Example 3 of the present invention. This embodiment can be applied to the case of determining the reliability index of a distribution system including energy storage equipment. The device specifically includes: a load point determination module 310, an outage duration determination module 320, a power outage duration determination module 330 and a reliability determination module 340.

[0130] A load point determination module 310 is used to determine each system load point of a target energy storage and distribution system, wherein the target energy storage and distribution system includes system load points, a main power supply, and energy storage equipment;

[0131] An outage duration determination module 320, configured to determine an estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply;

[0132] A power outage duration determination module 330, configured to determine a load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point, and the capacity of the energy storage device;

[0133] The reliability determination module 340 is used to determine the reliability index of the target energy storage distribution system based on the load point power outage duration of each load point of the system.

[0134] Optionally, the outage duration determination module 320 includes a first determination unit, which is used to determine the expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply based on the failure rate of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the repair time of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the transfer success rate of the system load point and the transfer time of the system load point.

[0135] Optionally, the first determining unit is specifically configured to determine the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply according to the following formula:

[0136] t stop (n) = (1-r trans )r fail (n)t repair (n)+r trans r fail (n)t trans ,

[0137] Among them, t stop (n) is the expected outage duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, r trans is the transfer success rate, r fail (n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, t repair (n) is the repair time of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, t trans The transfer duration.

[0138] Optionally, the reliability determination device of the energy storage distribution system further includes a repair time determination module, the repair time determination module is used to determine the repair time of the system load point relative to the main power supply, and the repair time determination module is specifically used to determine the repair time of the system load point relative to the main power supply according to the following formula:

[0139]

[0140] Among them, t repair (n) is the repair time of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, L(n) is the cable length of the nth system load point, rL is the cable failure rate at the system load point, t L is the cable power recovery time, n s (n) is the sum of the number of circuit breakers and switches at the nth system load point, r s is the failure rate of circuit breakers and switches, t s is the time it takes for the switch to restore power, r T is the failure rate of distribution transformer, t T is the transformer power recovery time, r fail (n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply.

[0141] Optionally, the load point information includes whether the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device and the power outage missing amount of the system load point. The power outage duration determination module 330 is specifically used to perform at least one of the following operations:

[0142] If the system load point cannot be connected to the energy storage device, the estimated outage duration is determined as the load point power outage duration of the system load point;

[0143] If the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device, and the capacity of the energy storage device is greater than or equal to the power outage missing amount of the system load point, then based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device and the estimated outage duration, determine the power outage duration of the load point of the system load point;

[0144] If the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device, and the capacity of the energy storage device is less than the power shortage of the system load point, the power outage duration of the load point of the system load point is determined based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device, the power outage duration when the energy storage device fails to switch, and the power outage duration when the energy storage device successfully switches.

[0145] Optionally, the reliability determination device of the energy storage distribution system further includes an energy storage duration determination module, wherein the energy storage duration determination module is used to calculate the power outage duration of a successful energy storage device switching based on the following formula:

[0146]

[0147] Among them, t suc (n) The power outage duration when the energy storage device corresponding to the nth system load point is successfully switched, r fail (n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, r trans is the transfer success rate, t repair (n) is the repair time of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, E B(n) is the dischargeable amount of energy storage at the nth system load point, and P is the load point power.

[0148] Optionally, the reliability index includes an expected value of the system power outage time and a system reliability value. The reliability determination module 340 is specifically used to determine the expected value of the system power outage time of the target energy storage and distribution system based on the load point power outage duration of each of the system load points; and determine the system reliability value of the target energy storage and distribution system based on the expected value of the system power outage time.

[0149] In this embodiment, each system load point of the target energy storage distribution system is determined through the load point determination module, and the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply is determined for each system load point in the target energy storage distribution system through the outage duration determination module. The load point outage duration of the system load point is determined according to the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage device through the outage duration determination module. Then, the reliability index of the target energy storage distribution system is determined according to the load point outage duration of each system load point through the reliability determination module, so as to quantify the reliability of the distribution system containing the energy storage device, thereby realizing the determination of the reliability of the distribution system, thereby facilitating the analysis and improving the reliability of the distribution system.

[0150] The reliability determination device of the energy storage and distribution system provided in the embodiment of the present invention can execute the reliability determination method of the energy storage and distribution system provided in any embodiment of the present invention, and has the corresponding functional modules and beneficial effects of the execution method.

[0151] It is worth noting that the various units and modules included in the above system are only divided according to functional logic, but are not limited to the above division, as long as the corresponding functions can be achieved; in addition, the specific names of the functional units are only for the convenience of distinguishing each other, and are not used to limit the protection scope of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0152] Embodiment 4

[0153] Figure 4 It is a structural schematic diagram of an electronic device provided in Embodiment 4 of the present invention. Figure 4 A block diagram of an exemplary electronic device 12 suitable for use in implementing embodiments of the present invention is shown. Figure 4 The electronic device 12 shown is only an example and should not bring any limitation to the functions and scope of use of the embodiments of the present invention. The device 12 is typically an electronic device that is responsible for determining the reliability of the energy storage distribution system.

[0154] like Figure 4As shown, the electronic device 12 is in the form of a general purpose computing device. The components of the electronic device 12 may include, but are not limited to: one or more processors or processing units 16, a memory 28, and a bus 18 connecting the various components (including the memory 28 and the processing unit 16).

[0155] Bus 18 represents one or more of several types of bus structures, including a memory bus or memory controller, a peripheral bus, an accelerated graphics port, a processor, or a local bus using any of a variety of bus architectures. For example, these architectures include, but are not limited to, Industry Standard Architecture (ISA) bus, Micro Channel Architecture (MCA) bus, Enhanced ISA bus, Video Electronics Standards Association (VESA) local bus, and Peripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus.

[0156] The electronic device 12 typically includes a variety of computer readable media. These media can be any available media that can be accessed by the electronic device 12, including volatile and non-volatile media, removable and non-removable media.

[0157] The memory 28 may include computer device readable media in the form of volatile memory, such as random access memory (RAM) 30 and / or cache memory 32. The electronic device 12 may further include other removable / non-removable, volatile / non-volatile computer storage media. By way of example only, the storage device 34 may be used to read and write non-removable, non-volatile magnetic media ( Figure 4 not shown, usually called a "hard drive"). Although Figure 4Not shown, a disk drive for reading and writing to a removable non-volatile disk (e.g., a "floppy disk"), and an optical disk drive for reading and writing to a removable non-volatile optical disk (e.g., a read-only optical disk (Compact Disc-Read Only Memory, CD-ROM), a digital video disk (Digital Video Disc-Read Only Memory, DVD-ROM) or other optical media) may be provided. In these cases, each drive may be connected to the bus 18 via one or more data medium interfaces. The memory 28 may include at least one program product 40, which has a set of program modules 42, which are configured to perform the functions of various embodiments of the present invention. The program product 40 may be stored in, for example, the memory 28, and such program modules 42 include, but are not limited to, one or more application programs, other program modules, and program data, each of which or some combination may include the implementation of a network environment. The program module 42 generally performs the functions and / or methods in the embodiments described in the present invention.

[0158] The electronic device 12 may also communicate with one or more external devices 14 (e.g., keyboard, mouse, camera, etc., and display), may also communicate with one or more devices that enable a user to interact with the electronic device 12, and / or communicate with any device that enables the electronic device 12 to communicate with one or more other computing devices (e.g., network card, modem, etc.). Such communication may be performed through an input / output (I / O) interface 22. In addition, the electronic device 12 may also communicate with one or more networks (e.g., a local area network (LAN), a wide area network (WAN) and / or a public network, such as the Internet) through a network adapter 20. As shown, the network adapter 20 communicates with other modules of the electronic device 12 through a bus 18. It should be understood that, although not shown in the figure, other hardware and / or software modules may be used in conjunction with the electronic device 12, including but not limited to: microcode, device drivers, redundant processing units, external disk drive arrays, disk arrays (Redundant Arrays of Independent Disks, RAID) devices, tape drives, and data backup storage devices.

[0159] The processor 16 executes various functional applications and data processing by running the program stored in the memory 28, for example, implementing the reliability determination method of the energy storage distribution system provided in the above embodiment of the present invention, including:

[0160] Determine each system load point of the target energy storage and distribution system, wherein the target energy storage and distribution system includes system load points, a main power supply, and energy storage equipment;

[0161] Determining an expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the primary power supply;

[0162] Determine the load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point, and the capacity of the energy storage device;

[0163] Based on the load point power outage duration of each of the system load points, a reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system is determined.

[0164] Of course, those skilled in the art can understand that the processor can also implement the technical solution of the reliability determination method of the energy storage distribution system provided by any embodiment of the present invention.

[0165] Embodiment 5

[0166] Embodiment 5 of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the steps of the reliability determination method of the energy storage distribution system provided in any embodiment of the present invention are implemented. The method includes:

[0167] Determine each system load point of the target energy storage and distribution system, wherein the target energy storage and distribution system includes system load points, a main power supply, and energy storage equipment;

[0168] Determining an expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the primary power supply;

[0169] Determine the load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point, and the capacity of the energy storage device;

[0170] Based on the load point power outage duration of each of the system load points, a reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system is determined.

[0171] The computer storage medium of the embodiment of the present invention can adopt any combination of one or more computer-readable media. The computer-readable medium can be a computer-readable signal medium or a computer-readable storage medium. The computer-readable storage medium can be, for example, but not limited to, an electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, device or device, or any combination of the above. More specific examples (non-exhaustive list) of computer-readable storage media include: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above. In this document, a computer-readable storage medium can be any tangible medium containing or storing a program, which can be used by an instruction execution system, device or device or used in combination with it.

[0172] Computer-readable signal media may include data signals propagated in baseband or as part of a carrier wave, which carry computer-readable program code. Such propagated data signals may take a variety of forms, including but not limited to electromagnetic signals, optical signals, or any suitable combination of the above. Computer-readable signal media may also be any computer-readable medium other than a computer-readable storage medium, which may send, propagate, or transmit a program for use by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.

[0173] Program code embodied on a computer readable medium may be transmitted using any appropriate medium, including but not limited to wireless, wireline, optical fiber cable, RF, etc., or any suitable combination of the foregoing.

[0174] Computer program code for performing the operation of embodiments of the present invention may be written in one or more programming languages ​​or a combination thereof, including object-oriented programming languages, such as Java, Smalltalk, C++, and conventional procedural programming languages, such as "C" or similar programming languages. The program code may be executed entirely on a user's computer, partially on a user's computer, as an independent software package, partially on a user's computer and partially on a remote computer, or entirely on a remote computer or server. In the case of a remote computer, the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer via any type of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or may be connected to an external computer (e.g., via the Internet using an Internet service provider).

[0175] Note that the above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention and the technical principles used. Those skilled in the art will understand that the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments described herein, and that various obvious changes, readjustments and substitutions can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the scope of protection of the present invention. Therefore, although the present invention has been described in more detail through the above embodiments, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and may include more other equivalent embodiments without departing from the concept of the present invention, and the scope of the present invention is determined by the scope of the appended claims.

Claims

1. A reliability determination method for an energy storage distribution system, characterized in that: The method comprises: Determine each system load point of the target energy storage and distribution system, wherein the target energy storage and distribution system includes system load points, a main power supply, and energy storage equipment; Determining an expected outage duration of the system load point relative to the primary power supply; Determining the load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point, and the capacity of the energy storage device, includes the following steps: if the system load point cannot be connected to the energy storage device, determining the estimated outage duration as the load point power outage duration of the system load point; if the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device, and the capacity of the energy storage device is greater than or equal to the power outage missing power of the system load point, then determining the load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device and the estimated outage duration; if the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device, and the capacity of the energy storage device is less than the power outage missing power of the system load point, then determining the load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device, the power outage duration of the failed switching of the energy storage device, and the power outage duration of the successful switching of the energy storage device; The load point information includes whether the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device and the power outage missing amount of the system load point; Based on the load point power outage duration of each of the system load points, a reliability index of the target energy storage and distribution system is determined.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Determining the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply includes: Based on the failure rate of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the repair time of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the transfer success rate of the system load point and the transfer time of the system load point, the expected outage time of the system load point relative to the main power supply is determined.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply is determined based on the failure rate of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the repair time of the system load point relative to the main power supply, the transfer success rate of the system load point and the transfer time of the system load point, satisfying the following formula: t stop (n)=(1-T trans )r fail (n)t repair (n)+r trans r fail (n)t trans , Among them, t stop (n) is the expected outage duration of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, r trans is the transfer success rate, r fail (n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, t repair (n) is the repair time of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, t trans The transfer duration.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The method further comprises: Determining the repair time of the system load point relative to the main power supply; The determination of the repair time of the system load point relative to the main power supply satisfies the following formula: Among them, t repair (n) is the repair time of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, L(n) is the cable length of the nth system load point, r L is the cable failure rate at the system load point, t L is the cable power recovery time, n s (n) is the sum of the number of circuit breakers and switches at the nth system load point, r s is the failure rate of circuit breakers and switches, t s is the time it takes for the switch to restore power, r T is the failure rate of distribution transformer, t T is the transformer power recovery time, r fail (n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The method further comprises: The power outage duration of successful energy storage device switching is calculated based on the following formula: Among them, t suc (n) The power outage duration when the energy storage device corresponding to the nth system load point is successfully switched, r fail (n) is the failure rate of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, r trans is the transfer success rate, t repair (n) is the repair time of the nth system load point relative to the main power supply, E B (n) is the dischargeable amount of energy storage at the nth system load point, and P is the load point power.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The reliability index includes an expected value of system power outage time and a system reliability value. The reliability index of the target energy storage distribution system is determined based on the load point power outage duration of each system load point, including: Determining an expected value of the system power outage time of the target energy storage and distribution system based on the load point power outage duration of each of the system load points; A system reliability value of the target energy storage and distribution system is determined based on the expected value of the system power outage time.

7. A reliability determination device for an energy storage distribution system, characterized in that: The device comprises: A load point determination module, used to determine each system load point of a target energy storage and distribution system, wherein the target energy storage and distribution system includes system load points, a main power supply and energy storage equipment; An outage duration determination module is used to determine the estimated outage duration of the system load point relative to the main power supply; a power outage duration determination module is used to determine the load point power outage duration of the system load point based on the estimated outage duration, the load point information of the system load point and the capacity of the energy storage device, including the following steps: if the system load point cannot be connected to the energy storage device, the estimated outage duration is determined as the load point power outage duration of the system load point; if the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device, and the capacity of the energy storage device is greater than or equal to the power outage missing power of the system load point, the load point power outage duration of the system load point is determined based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device and the estimated outage duration; if the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device, and the capacity of the energy storage device is less than the power outage missing power of the system load point, the load point power outage duration of the system load point is determined based on the switching success rate of the energy storage device, the power outage duration of the failed switching of the energy storage device and the power outage duration of the successful switching of the energy storage device; The load point information includes whether the system load point can be connected to the energy storage device and the power outage missing amount of the system load point; The reliability determination module is used to determine the reliability index of the target energy storage distribution system based on the load point power outage duration of each system load point.

8. An electronic device, characterized in that: The electronic device comprises: one or more processors; a storage device for storing one or more programs, When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors implement the reliability determination method of the energy storage distribution system as described in any one of claims 1-6.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the program is executed by a processor, the reliability determination method of the energy storage distribution system as described in any one of claims 1-6 is implemented.

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