Water supply amount multi-stage dynamic distribution method based on feedback correction mechanism

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of water supply amount distribution, in particular to a water supply amount multi-stage dynamic distribution method based on a feedback correction mechanism. According to the method, the distribution stage division is further refined from seasons to months; through stage refinement, non-uniform distribution and uncertainty of water resources within a year can be represented more accurately, and the influence of the uncertainty on model calculation and water supply amount distribution is greatly reduced, so that the reliability and applicability of a model optimization calculation result are enhanced. According to the method disclosed by the invention, the distribution quantity value of the water supply quantity distribution scheme is dynamically corrected by using a feedback correction mechanism, and the distribution quantity value of the water supply quantity distribution scheme is timely corrected in the stage process of water supply quantity distribution, so that deviation correction and correction on the distribution quantity value of the distribution scheme are promoted; therefore, the scientific rationality and dynamics of the distribution scheme are enhanced, the water consumption efficiency of each sub-region is improved, and the problems that the prediction of the water supply amount and the water consumption amount in the existing water supply amount distribution research is uncertain, and the distribution model method cannot realize the multi-stage dynamic optimization and dynamic decision of the water supply amount are solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of water supply distribution, and in particular to a multi-stage dynamic distribution method of water supply based on a feedback correction mechanism. Background Art

[0002] Water supply allocation research mainly revolves around the theme of scientific and efficient use of water resources. Therefore, the pursuit of a balanced and harmonious multi-party interest and the maximization of multi-objective benefits are the core goals of water supply allocation. The main process of traditional water supply allocation research includes data collection, water supply forecasting, water consumption forecasting, allocation target extraction, allocation model construction, allocation model solution and allocation plan recommendation. This series of steps constitutes the cornerstone of water supply allocation research.

[0003] In the water industry, water supply refers to the amount of water supplied by water sources (such as reservoirs, groundwater wells, etc.) to water users; water consumption refers to the amount of water actually used by water users; water supply forecast refers to the forecast of the amount of water that can be allocated and utilized by water sources within a certain time range. Water consumption forecast refers to the forecast of water demand of water users within a certain period of time. The water supply allocation plan refers to the allocation of the amount of water that can be allocated and utilized by the water source to each water user, and the determination of the water consumption share of each water user. The allocation value of the water supply allocation plan refers to the amount of water consumption allocated by the water source to each water user in each water unit. Water resources refer to the total amount of water resources available in a region within a period of time, including surface water resources and groundwater resources.

[0004] However, current research on water supply allocation faces several core challenges. Among them, there is a lack of scientific and effective solutions to the uncertainty of water supply. This is because the uncertainty of water resources mainly comes from the dual impact of climate change and human activities. In addition, due to the uneven distribution of water resources throughout the year, it is difficult to accurately predict water supply and water consumption. The prediction results often deviate greatly from the actual water supply and water consumption. This uncertainty not only weakens the effectiveness of the model optimization solution, but also affects the actual application effect of the water supply allocation strategy. Therefore, the uncertainty of water supply and water consumption prediction is still the main problem that plagues the model optimization solution effect.

[0005] In addition, the traditional water supply allocation method places too much emphasis on the process of modeling, optimization and solving, and seeking the best solution, but ignores the fact that water supply allocation is essentially a multi-stage, dynamic optimization and decision-making process. The allocation value of the static water supply allocation scheme is often unable to be effectively applied in actual operations due to the uncertainty of water resources.

[0006] In summary, in order to cope with the uncertainty of water supply forecasting and water consumption forecasting and improve the dynamic adaptability of the allocation value of the water supply allocation scheme, it is still an urgent problem to be solved in the water supply allocation research. Summary of the invention

[0007] In order to solve the problems in existing water supply allocation research that there are uncertainties in water supply prediction and water consumption prediction, and that the allocation model method cannot achieve multi-stage dynamic optimization and dynamic decision-making of water supply, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a multi-stage dynamic allocation method of water supply based on a feedback correction mechanism to cope with the uncertainty problem in the water supply allocation process, and to be able to dynamically and timely correct the allocation value of the water supply allocation scheme in stages according to the actual water supply and water use conditions during the water supply allocation process, effectively improve the scientific rationality of the water supply allocation scheme, and strengthen the constraints of the water supply allocation scheme on actual water use through rewards and punishments, thereby improving the level of water resources management.

[0008] To achieve the above object, the technical solution of the present invention is as follows:

[0009] The present invention provides a multi-stage dynamic distribution method of water supply based on a feedback correction mechanism, comprising the following steps: Obtain the water quota of each water user in each water unit in the region and the corresponding industry scale, and predict the water demand of each water unit in the region; According to the historical water supply data of regional water sources, the water supply of water sources is predicted, and the water supply prediction results of each water source in the region are obtained; According to the historical water consumption data and economic benefit data of various water users in the region, regression model fitting is used to obtain the functional relationship between water benefits and water consumption of various water users in the region, as well as the functional relationship between water costs and water consumption of various water users in the region; Based on the water consumption forecast results of each water-using unit in the region, the water supply forecast results of each water source in the region, the functional relationship between the water use benefits and water consumption of various water users in the region, and the functional relationship between the water use costs and water consumption of various water users in the region, a water supply allocation model is constructed; The water supply allocation model is solved and analyzed to obtain the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan. The implementation of the water supply allocation plan is judged based on the evaluation of water supply forecast results and actual water use, and then the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan for the next month is feedback-corrected to obtain the allocation value of the multi-stage dynamic allocation of water supply.

[0010] The preferred method for feedback correction of the distribution value of the water supply distribution scheme is as follows: Solve the water supply allocation model to obtain the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan for each water use unit in the month. At the end of the month, the actual water supply data and actual water use data of the month can be obtained; According to the actual water supply data and water supply forecast value of each water-using unit in the current month, determine whether the actual water supply data of each water supply source matches the water supply forecast result; at the same time, calculate the difference between the actual water supply data of each water supply source and the water supply forecast value, and use the difference to correct the water supply forecast value of each water supply source in the next month; According to the actual water consumption data of each water consumption unit in the month and the allocated amount value of the water supply allocation plan, it is determined whether the actual water consumption data of each water consumption unit in the month matches the allocated amount value of the water supply allocation plan; When the actual water consumption data of each water-using unit in the current month is greater than the allocated value of the water supply allocation plan, determine whether the water consumption forecast value of each water-using unit matches the actual water consumption value; when the water consumption forecast value of each water-using unit is less than the actual water consumption value, and the water consumption forecast value is reasonable, an over-water consumption warning is issued to the corresponding water-using unit, and when predicting the water consumption for the next month, the excess water used in the previous month is deducted as a penalty; when the water consumption forecast value of each water-using unit is less than the actual water consumption value, and the water consumption forecast value is too small, the water consumption quota and industry scale for the next month are adjusted, and the water consumption forecast value is revised for the next month; When the actual water consumption data of each water-using unit in the month is less than or equal to the actual water supply data, the data difference between the actual water consumption data of each water-using unit and the actual water supply data is calculated to obtain the amount of water saved, and the amount of water saved is converted into financial rewards according to the water price; if it is judged that the water consumption forecast is unreasonable, the water consumption forecast value will be revised in the next month.

[0011] The preferred method for determining whether the actual water supply data of each water supply source matches the water supply forecast result is: Calculate the deviation between the actual water supply data of each water supply source and the water supply forecast result, and the deviation is within ±20%; The method to determine the matching between the actual water consumption data of each water user in the month and the allocated value of the water supply allocation plan is: Calculate the deviation between the actual water consumption data of each water-using unit in the month and the allocated value of the water supply allocation plan, and the deviation shall be within ±20%.

[0012] The conditions for feedback correction of the distribution value of the water supply distribution plan are: The deviation between the actual water supply data of each water supply source and the water supply forecast result exceeds ±20%; or, the deviation between the actual water use data of each water use unit in the month and the allocated value of the water supply allocation plan exceeds ±20%.

[0013] Preferred water supply sources include surface water sources, groundwater sources and unconventional water sources; surface water sources include water storage projects, water diversion projects and water extraction projects.

[0014] The method for predicting water supply for water storage projects is as follows: The water supply of large-scale water storage projects is calculated according to the following formula: ;in, is the total water supply of large reservoirs, 10,000 m³; is the water supply in period t, ten thousand m³; t is the water supply period; It is calculated by the following formula: ;in, is the storage capacity at the end of the (t+1) period, 10,000 m³; is the storage capacity at the beginning of period t, ten thousand m³; is the water storage capacity in period t, ten thousand m³; is the water surface evaporation in period t, ten thousand m³; is the leakage volume in period t, ten thousand m³; is the amount of water abandoned in period t, 10,000 m³; The water supply of a medium-sized water storage project is calculated according to the following formula: ;in, The water supply of a medium-sized reservoir is 10,000 m³; is the design water supply of the medium-sized reservoir, 10,000 m³; k is the design water supply utilization coefficient; The water supply of a small water storage project is calculated according to the following formula: ;in, is the water supply of the small reservoir or pond, 10,000 m³; n is the number of times the small reservoir or pond is recharged; V is the effective storage capacity of the small reservoir or pond, 10,000 m³; The method for predicting water supply for water diversion projects and water lifting projects is as follows: The water supply of the water diversion project is calculated according to the following formula: ;in, is the water supply of the water diversion project, 10,000 m³; c is the irrigation conservation coefficient; A is the effective irrigation area covered by the water diversion project; M is the gross irrigation quota of the water diversion project; is the canal utilization coefficient; The water supply of the water pumping project is calculated according to the following formula: ;in, The water supply of the water lifting project is 10,000 m³; Y is the minimum value of the water diversion flow, water lifting capacity, and user water demand data set in period t; t is the water diversion flow rate during period t; H t is the water extraction capacity in period t; X t is the user water demand in period t; t is the water supply period; T is the number of periods; Preferably, the method for predicting the water supply of groundwater sources is as follows: Calculate the water supply from groundwater sources according to the following formula: ;in, The water supply from groundwater source, 10,000 m³; is the minimum value of the water extraction capacity in period t, the exploitable amount of groundwater resources in period t, and the user water demand data set in period t; H t is the water extraction capacity in period t; W t is the exploitable amount of groundwater resources in period t; X t is the user's water demand in period t; t is the water supply period; T is the number of periods.

[0015] Preferably, the unconventional water source includes rainwater, brackish water, intermediate water and seawater; the method for predicting the water supply of unconventional water sources is as follows: According to the historical water supply data of regional water sources, statistical reports and analysis are conducted on unconventional water sources to estimate the water supply of unconventional water sources; Preferably, the functional relationship between the water use efficiency and water supply of various water users in the region is as follows: ; Among them, BENEFIT represents the water use benefit generated by water use; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; The functional relationship between water cost and water supply for various water users in the region is as follows: ; Among them, COST represents the water cost of various water users; represents the water cost generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; Preferably, the water supply allocation model includes an objective function of economic benefits, an objective function of allocation fairness, an objective function of water resource utilization efficiency, and an objective function of carbon reduction targets; The objective function of economic benefit is: ; Among them, EP represents economic benefit; max EP represents maximum economic benefit; represents the water loss rate of the ith sub-region during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; represents the water cost generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; The objective function of distribution fairness is: ; ; Wherein, min Gini represents the minimum Gini coefficient; represents the water use benefits of all water users in the ith sub-region during period t; represents the water use efficiency of the jth water user in the i-th sub-region during period t; i is a or b; represents the water use benefits of all water users in the ath sub-area during period t; represents the water use benefits of all water users in the bth sub-area during period t; represents the water loss rate of the a-th sub-area during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the a-th sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the a-th sub-region during period t; represents the water loss rate of the b-th sub-area during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the b-th sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the b-th sub-area during period t; The objective function of water resource utilization efficiency is: ; Among them, max AE represents the maximum utilization efficiency of water resources; It represents the total available water resources in period t; is the water storage capacity in period t; The objective function of the carbon reduction target is: ; Wherein, C represents the carbon reduction target; max C represents the maximum value of the carbon reduction target; represents the carbon sink generated by agricultural water use; It represents the carbon sink generated by water use in ecological environment; represents the carbon source generated by agricultural water withdrawal; represents the carbon sources generated by water withdrawal from other sectors; Indicates the carbon source produced by industrial and domestic water; Represents the carbon source produced by sewage treatment.

[0016] Preferably, the calculation formula for carbon sinks generated by agricultural water use is: ;in, represents the net irrigation quota of crops in the i-th sub-region u-th crop in period t, m³ / hm 2 ; Indicates the yield per unit area of ​​the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region, kg / / hm 2 ; represents the moisture content of the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region; represents the economic coefficient of the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region; represents the carbon absorption rate of the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region; The calculation formula for carbon sinks generated by ecological environment water use is: ;in, represents the carbon absorption per unit of water use by the ecological environment department of the i-th sub-region, kg / m³; The calculation formula for the carbon source generated by agricultural water withdrawal is: ;in, represents the net irrigation quota of crops in the i-th sub-region u-th crop in period t, m³ / hm 2 ; represents the carbon emission per unit area of ​​the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region, kg / hm 2 ; represents the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water in the i-th sub-region;

[0017] The calculation formula for carbon sources generated by water withdrawal from other departments is: ;in, represents the unit water consumption of other sectors (such as life, industry, and environment) in the i-th sub-region, (MW·h) / m³; represents the carbon emission factor per unit of electricity of the jth water user in the ith sub-region, kg / (MW·h); The calculation formula for the carbon source generated by industrial water and domestic water is: ;in, represents the carbon emissions per unit of water use for life and industry in the ith sub-region, kg / m³; The calculation formula for the carbon source generated by sewage treatment is: ;in, represents the unit sewage treatment power consumption of the jth water user in the ith sub-area, (MW·h) / m³; represents the carbon emission factor per unit of electricity of the jth water user in the ith sub-region, kg / (MW·h); represents the sewage discharge coefficient of the jth water user in the ith sub-area; represents the sewage collection rate of the jth water user in the ith sub-area; Preferably, the constraints of the water supply allocation model include: available water constraints, local water limit constraints at each stage of each sub-basin, economic efficiency loss constraints, minimum ecological water constraints, water demand constraints, state transfer equations and their constraints, and variable non-negative constraints; The available water constraints are: ,and ;in, represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to all water users in the i-th sub-area during period t; represents the available water resources of the river during period t represents the total amount of water resources from other water sources in the ith sub-region during period t; The local water quantity limit constraints for each sub-basin at each stage are: ;in, represents the initial water right of the ith sub-region in period t; It represents the ecological environment water consumption of the ith sub-region in period t.

[0018] The economic efficiency loss constraint is: ;in, represents the maximum flood benefit coefficient of the jth water user in the ith sub-region; represents the maximum economic benefit value of each industry's unit water consumption in the i-th sub-region; It indicates the total available amount of regional river water resources; The amount of water available from other water sources in the region; The minimum ecological water volume constraint is: ;in, represents the minimum ecological water demand of the ith sub-region in period t; The water demand constraints are: ;in, represents the minimum water demand of the jth water user in the ith sub-area during period t; represents the maximum water demand of the jth water user in the ith sub-area during period t; The state transfer equation and its constraints are: ,and , , ;in, represents the state variable during period t; Represents the state variable of the (t+1) period; represents the initial water right of the ith sub-region in period t; represents the total amount of water resources from other water sources in the ith sub-region during period t; The non-negative constraints on the variables are: , , .

[0019] Beneficial effects of the present invention:

[0020] 1. The method of the present invention mainly refines the allocation stage division from season to month. By refining the stage division, the influence of water resource uncertainty is reduced, the accuracy of water supply and water consumption forecasts is enhanced, and the dynamic performance of water supply allocation is enhanced; the present invention is conducive to more accurately characterizing the uneven distribution and uncertainty of water resources within the year through stage refinement, and greatly reduces the influence of uncertainty on model calculation and water supply allocation, thereby enhancing the reliability and applicability of the model optimization calculation results; 2. The method of the present invention dynamically corrects the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan by using a feedback correction mechanism, and timely corrects the allocation plan during the stage of water supply allocation, thereby promoting the correction and correction of the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan, thereby enhancing the scientific rationality and dynamics of the allocation plan and improving the water use efficiency of each sub-area; 3. The present invention calculates economic benefits by determining the functional relationship between water use efficiency and water consumption, and the functional relationship between water use cost and water consumption, thereby facilitating a more scientific and accurate measurement of the economic benefits generated by water use. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0021] Figure 1 It is a curve chart showing the relationship between economic benefits and water supply in actual production;

[0022] Figure 2 It is a curve chart showing the relationship between the unit price of water supply and the amount of water supply in actual production;

[0023] Figure 3 It is a framework diagram of a multi-stage dynamic allocation method of water supply based on a feedback correction mechanism provided by one embodiment of the present invention;

[0024] Figure 4 It is a framework diagram for performing feedback correction on a water supply distribution model provided by one embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0025] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the present invention.

[0026] Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making any creative work shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0027] Water supply allocation is a scientific study to maximize regional economic and social benefits, ensure balanced development of all stakeholders, and improve the efficiency of water resource utilization. There are still several problems in the existing water supply allocation research. Among them, there is uncertainty in the prediction of water resources due to climate change and the impact of human activities, which is mainly manifested in the difficulty of predicting water supply and water consumption to match the actual water supply and water consumption. In addition, the traditional water supply allocation model focuses on modeling and model optimization, but ignores that water supply allocation should be a multi-stage dynamic optimization and dynamic decision-making process.

[0028] Based on this, the present invention proposes a multi-stage dynamic allocation method of water supply based on a feedback correction mechanism to cope with the uncertainty problem in the water supply allocation process, and can dynamically and timely correct the allocation value of the water supply allocation scheme in stages according to the actual water supply and actual water consumption during the water supply allocation process, effectively improve the scientific rationality of the water supply allocation scheme, and strengthen the constraints of the water supply allocation scheme on actual water use, improve the level of water resources management, and solve the problems in the existing water supply allocation research that there is uncertainty in the prediction of water supply and water consumption, and the allocation model method cannot achieve multi-stage dynamic optimization and dynamic decision-making of water supply.

[0029] The present invention mainly couples the feedback correction mechanism with multi-stage dynamic optimization to form a multi-stage dynamic allocation method for water supply based on the feedback correction mechanism. The method of the present invention aims to enhance the scientific application of the uneven distribution of water resources within the year through procedural multi-stage optimization; by refining the allocation stage, shortening the time step of water supply and water consumption prediction, reducing the uncertainty of prediction, and enhancing the reliability of prediction, thereby enhancing the ability to cope with the uncertainty of water and water consumption; it proposes to use the feedback correction mechanism to dynamically correct the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan, obtain the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan that can adapt to changes, and constrain the water use process with the dynamic allocation plan, thereby improving the efficiency of water resource utilization.

[0030] The technical solution of the present invention is further described below by means of specific examples. In the following examples, the methods described are conventional methods unless otherwise specified; the reagents and materials described are commercially available unless otherwise specified.

[0031] like Figure 3 and Figure 4 , a multi-stage dynamic allocation method of water supply with a feedback correction mechanism, comprising the following steps: S1, divide the water supply into monthly stages, and optimize the allocation of water resources in the year in stages; Traditional water supply allocation research focuses on the total water consumption allocation of each unit industry, but ignores the large dynamic changes in water resources between months of the year, and cannot achieve the transformation from total allocation to process allocation within the year. In recent years, more and more water resources allocation research has focused on the seasonal differences in water resources, but the water supply and water consumption forecasts are still difficult to match the actual water supply and water consumption. Based on this, the embodiment of the present invention will further refine the time scale of water supply allocation, from the existing annual and seasonal scale water supply allocation to monthly water supply allocation; at the same time, based on the concept of dynamic management, the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan is dynamically corrected to ensure that the water supply allocation plan conforms to the actual situation. Therefore, the present invention proposes to divide the phases of dynamic water supply allocation by month, and optimize the water resources allocation in the year in stages.

[0032] S2, water consumption forecast; S2.1, collect water quotas of various water users in the region, determine the advanced value and general value of water quotas of various water users in the region; calculate the minimum water demand based on the advanced value of water quotas; calculate the maximum water demand based on the general value of water quotas; S2.2. Based on the existing statistical data, collect the current scale and future growth rate of various types of water users in the region; S2.3, based on the data collected in step S2.1 and step S2.2, the water consumption quota of each water user in the region is multiplied by the corresponding current scale to predict the water consumption demand of each type of water user in the region and the upper and lower limits of the water consumption demand; S3, water supply forecast; S3.1. Collect historical water supply data of regional water sources, and the length of the historical water supply data of regional water sources shall be ≥ 30 years; S3.2 Water supply forecast. Water supply sources mainly consist of surface water sources, groundwater sources, and unconventional water sources. Among them, surface water sources are divided into water storage projects, water diversion projects, and water lifting projects according to their types.

[0033] (1) Water supply forecast for water storage projects; For large and medium-sized water conservancy projects with multi-year regulation functions, long-series monthly regulation calculations are used. Medium-sized reservoirs use long-series monthly regulation calculations. Due to quantity and basic data issues, the ratio of actual annual water supply to designed annual water supply can also be calculated through mathematical statistics methods as the water supply utilization coefficient k. According to the formula, the water supply is calculated. The specific calculation formula is as follows: Without including dead storage capacity, the calculation formula for regulating storage capacity at the end of the (t+1) period is: ;in, is the storage capacity at the end of the (t+1) period, 10,000 m³; is the storage capacity at the beginning of period t, ten thousand m³; is the water storage capacity in period t, ten thousand m³; is the water surface evaporation in period t, ten thousand m³; is the leakage volume in period t, ten thousand m³; is the water supply in period t, 10,000 m³; is the amount of abandoned water in period t, ten thousand m³; t is the water supply period.

[0034] The calculation formula for the total water supply of a large reservoir in period t is: ;in, is the total water supply of large reservoirs, 10,000 m³; is the water supply in period t, ten thousand m³; t is the water supply period; The water supply of a medium-sized reservoir is calculated as follows: ;in, The water supply of a medium-sized reservoir is 10,000 m³; is the design water supply of the medium-sized reservoir, 10,000 m³; k is the design water supply utilization coefficient, and the value of k for different water inflow frequencies is different.

[0035] For small-scale water conservancy projects, ponds and dams, the typical year method or the repetition storage coefficient method is used for calculation.

[0036] The calculation formula for the water supply of small reservoirs or ponds is: ;in, is the water supply of the small reservoir or pond, 10,000 m³; n is the number of times the small reservoir or pond is recharged; V is the effective storage capacity of the small reservoir or pond, 10,000 m³; (2) Water supply forecast for water diversion and lifting projects; The water diversion project estimates the annual water supply based on the effective irrigation area; the water lifting project determines the annual water supply based on the water diversion flow at the water intake, the water lifting capacity, and the water consumption demand of users.

[0037] The calculation formula for the water supply of the water diversion project is: ;in, is the water supply of the water diversion project, 10,000 m³; c is the irrigation conservation coefficient; A is the effective irrigation area covered by the water diversion project; M is the gross irrigation quota of the water diversion project; is the canal utilization coefficient; The calculation formula for the water supply of the water lifting project is: ;in, The water supply of the water lifting project is 10,000 m³; is the minimum value of the water diversion flow rate in period t, the water lifting capacity in period t, and the user water demand data set in period t; Y t is the water diversion flow rate during period t; H t is the water extraction capacity in period t; X t is the user water demand in period t; t is the water supply period; T is the number of periods; (3) Forecast of water supply from groundwater sources; The calculation formula for the water supply from groundwater sources is: ;in, The water supply from groundwater source, 10,000 m³; is the minimum value of the water extraction capacity in period t, the exploitable amount of groundwater resources in period t, and the user water demand data set in period t; H t is the water extraction capacity in period t; W t is the exploitable amount of groundwater resources in period t; X t is the user water demand in period t; t is the water supply period; T is the number of periods; (4) Water supply forecast from unconventional water sources.

[0038] The water supply from unconventional water sources such as rainwater, brackish water, recycled water, seawater, etc. is estimated through statistical reports, investigation and analysis, and comprehensive evaluation.

[0039] S4, construction of characteristic function relationship; The traditional allocation model simplifies the measurement method of economic benefits during the construction process, assuming that there is a linear growth relationship between economic benefits and water supply. However, in actual production, there is a nonlinear relationship between economic benefits and water supply. The relationship curve between economic benefits and water supply in actual production is shown in Figure 2. Figure 1 The relationship curve between the water supply unit price and water supply volume in actual production is as follows: Figure 2 ; In order to accurately measure the economic benefits, the embodiment of the present invention proposes to use regression model fitting based on historical water use and economic benefit data, and determine the functional relationship between the water use benefits and water supply of various water users; The functional relationship between the water use efficiency and water supply of various water users is as follows: ; Among them, BENEFIT represents the water use benefit generated by water use; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t.

[0040] The functional relationship between water cost and water supply for various water users is as follows: ; Among them, COST represents the water cost of various water users; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the water cost generated by the water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t.

[0041] S5, construction of water supply allocation model; S5.1. Collection of parameters required for the allocation model; Among them, the main parameters include the number of sub-areas, the number of water users, the minimum ecological water demand, the water supply priority and other parameters.

[0042] S5.2, Construction of water supply allocation model;

[0043] The allocation of water supply should take into account both fairness and efficiency. In order to achieve efficient water supply allocation, it is necessary to describe these objectives mathematically and then solve them by using intelligent optimization algorithms. The objective function of the water supply allocation model is as follows: (1) The objective function of economic benefit is: ; Among them, EP represents economic benefit; max EP represents maximum economic benefit; Respectively represent the number of sub-regions; Respectively represent the number of water users in each sub-region; Respectively represent the number of time periods; Indicates the number of water sources; represents the water loss rate of the ith sub-region during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; represents the water cost generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; (2) The objective function of distribution fairness is: ; ; Where Gini represents the Gini coefficient; min Gini represents the minimum Gini coefficient; represents the water use benefits of all water users in the ith sub-region during period t; represents the water use benefit of the jth water user in the i-th sub-region during period t; Respectively represent the number of sub-regions; Respectively represent the number of water users in each sub-region; Indicates the number of water sources; represents the water loss rate of the ith sub-region during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the i-th sub-region during period t; i is a or b; represents the water use benefits of all water users in the ath sub-area during period t; represents the water use benefits of all water users in the bth sub-area during period t; represents the water loss rate of the a-th sub-area during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the a-th sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the a-th sub-region during period t; represents the water loss rate of the b-th sub-area during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the b-th sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the b-th sub-area during period t; (3) The objective function of water supply utilization efficiency is: ; Among them, AE represents the utilization efficiency of water supply; max AE represents the maximum utilization efficiency of water supply; Respectively represent the number of sub-regions; Respectively represent the number of water users in each sub-region; Indicates the number of water sources; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; It represents the total available water resources in period t; is the water storage capacity in period t.

[0044] (4) The carbon reduction target is essentially to increase carbon sinks and reduce carbon sources. The objective function of the carbon reduction target is:

[0045] ; Wherein, C represents the carbon reduction target; max C represents the maximum value of the carbon reduction target; represents the carbon sink generated by agricultural water use; It represents the carbon sink generated by water use in ecological environment; represents the carbon source generated by agricultural water withdrawal; represents the carbon sources generated by water withdrawal from other sectors; Indicates the carbon source produced by industrial and domestic water; Represents the carbon source produced by sewage treatment.

[0046] Specifically, the calculation formula for carbon sinks generated by agricultural water use is:

[0047] ;in, represents the carbon sink generated by agricultural water use; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; represents the net irrigation quota of crops in the i-th sub-region u-th crop in period t, m³ / hm 2 ; Indicates the yield per unit area of ​​the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region, kg / / hm 2 ; represents the moisture content of the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region; represents the economic coefficient of the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region; represents the carbon absorption rate of the u-th crop in the ith sub-region.

[0048] The calculation formula for carbon sinks generated by ecological environment water use is: ;in, It represents the carbon sink generated by water use in ecological environment; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the carbon absorption per unit of water use by the ecological environment department in the ith sub-region, kg / m³.

[0049] The calculation formula for the carbon source generated by agricultural water withdrawal is: ;in, represents the carbon source generated by agricultural water withdrawal; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; represents the net irrigation quota of crops in the i-th sub-region u-th crop in period t, m³ / hm 2 ; represents the carbon emission per unit area of ​​the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region, kg / hm 2 ; It represents the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water in the ith sub-region.

[0050] The calculation formula for carbon sources generated by water withdrawal from other departments is: ;in, represents the carbon sources generated by water withdrawal from other sectors; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; represents the unit water consumption of other sectors (such as life, industry, and environment) in the i-th sub-region, (MW·h) / m³; It represents the carbon emission factor per unit of electricity of the jth water user in the ith sub-region, kg / (MW·h).

[0051] The calculation formula for the carbon source generated by industrial water and domestic water is: ;in, Indicates the carbon source produced by industrial and domestic water; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the carbon emission per unit of water used in life and industry in the ith sub-region, kg / m³.

[0052] The calculation formula for the carbon source generated by sewage treatment is: ;in, represents the carbon source produced by sewage treatment; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; represents the unit sewage treatment power consumption of the jth water user in the ith sub-area, (MW·h) / m³; represents the carbon emission factor per unit of electricity of the jth water user in the ith sub-region, kg / (MW·h); represents the sewage discharge coefficient of the jth water user in the ith sub-area; represents the sewage collection rate of the jth water user in the ith sub-area.

[0053] The constraints of the water supply allocation model are as follows:

[0054] (1) The constraints on available water volume are: ,and ;in, represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to all water users in the i-th sub-area during period t; It represents the total available amount of river water resources in period t; represents the total amount of water resources from other water sources in the ith sub-region during period t; (2) The local water volume constraints for each sub-basin at each stage are: ;in, represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; represents the initial water right of the ith sub-region in period t; represents the ecological environment water consumption of the ith sub-region during period t; (3) The economic efficiency loss constraint condition is: ;in, represents the water loss rate of the ith sub-region during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the if-th sub-region during period t; represents the water cost generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; represents the maximum flood benefit coefficient of the jth water user in the ith sub-region; represents the maximum economic benefit value of each industry's unit water consumption in the i-th sub-region; It indicates the total available amount of regional river water resources; The amount of water available from other water sources in the region; represents the ecological environment water consumption of the ith sub-region during period t; (4) The minimum ecological water volume constraint is: ;in, represents the ecological environment water consumption of the ith sub-region during period t; represents the minimum ecological water demand of the ith sub-region in period t; (5) The water demand constraint is: ;in, represents the minimum water demand of the jth water user in the ith sub-area during period t; represents the maximum water demand of the jth water user in the ith sub-area during period t; (6) The state transfer equation is: ,and , , ;in, represents the state variable during period t; Represents the state variable of the (t+1) period; represents the initial water right of the ith sub-region in period t; represents the total amount of water resources from other water sources in the ith sub-region during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; represents the water cost generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; (7) The non-negative constraint condition of the variable is: , ,and ;in, represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; represents the water cost generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; represents the initial water right of the ith sub-region in period t.

[0055] S6, solution of water supply allocation model; According to the construction of the water supply distribution model, the intelligent optimization algorithm is selected to solve the model.

[0056] S6.1. Select an intelligent optimization algorithm. You can select an intelligent optimization algorithm based on the actual situation of the objective function of the allocation model and the advantages and disadvantages of the algorithm itself. Commonly used intelligent optimization algorithms include: genetic algorithm, particle swarm algorithm, Bayesian optimization algorithm, etc. S6.2. Combine the model parameters and set the basic parameters of the intelligent optimization algorithm. Use the intelligent optimization algorithm to solve the allocation model; S7, feedback correction of the distribution value of the water supply distribution plan; S7.1. Evaluation of water supply forecast results; Based on the actual water supply data of each water source at the end of the month and the water supply forecast value at the beginning of the month, it is determined whether each water supply source is supplying water according to the forecast value. At the same time, the difference between the actual water supply and the forecast value of each water source is calculated, and the difference is used to correct the water supply forecast value of the water source in the next month.

[0057] S7.2, actual water use evaluation; Based on the actual water consumption data of each water-using unit at the end of the month and the allocation plan for the month, it is determined whether each water-using unit uses water according to the allocation plan; for water-using units that exceed the water consumption quota, it is analyzed whether the reason is that the water consumption forecast value is too small or there is inefficient water use; for water-using units that use less water than the allocation plan, it is analyzed whether the quota and scale forecasts are reasonable.

[0058] S7.3, rewards and penalties for water use; According to the evaluation results of S7.2, for units that use excess water, if the quota and scale forecast are reasonable, an excess water warning should be issued to the water user in a timely manner, and the excess water used in the previous month should be deducted as a penalty when forecasting the water consumption in the next month; for units that use excess water, if the water consumption forecast is too small, the quota and industry scale should be adjusted in the next month to revise the water consumption forecast; Units that save water below the allocation plan should be rewarded in a timely manner, and the amount of water saved should be converted into financial rewards based on the water price.

[0059] S7.4. Modification of the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan; After the actual water supply and actual water consumption at the end of the month are known, if the actual water supply of each water source is within ±20% of the water supply forecast value and the actual water consumption of each water user is within ±20% of the allocation plan, the water supply and water consumption forecast is reasonable and the formulated allocation plan is reasonable, and there is no need to make corrections in the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan for the next stage. If the actual water supply deviates from the water supply forecast value by more than ±20%, or the actual water consumption of each water user deviates from the allocation plan by more than ±20%, the allocation plan for the next month will be corrected. The specific corrections are as follows: (1) Based on the comparison results between the actual water supply and the water supply forecast, if the comparison finds that the actual water supply is lower or higher than the water supply forecast by more than 20%, the water supply of the water source will be re-forecasted in the next month and the allocation plan will be recalculated; (2) Based on the comparison results of actual water consumption and allocation plan values, if the comparison finds that the actual water consumption is more than 20% lower than the allocation plan value, the water consumption should be re-forecasted in the next month and the allocation plan should be recalculated; if the actual water consumption is more than 20% higher than the allocation plan value, the reasons for the excess water consumption should be analyzed and found. If the excess water consumption is traced back to the waste of resources caused by unreasonable water use, timely warnings and penalties should be given. If the reason for the analysis is that the water consumption forecast result is objectively too small, the water consumption should be re-forecasted in the next month and the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan should be recalculated. The allocation value of the water supply allocation plan should be evaluated and revised on a monthly basis.

[0060] In summary, an embodiment of the present invention proposes a multi-stage dynamic allocation method for water supply based on a feedback correction mechanism, which extracts a water supply allocation target set, constructs a multi-target allocation model, and then performs multi-stage (monthly) optimization allocation to reduce the uncertainty of water supply and water consumption forecasts, so that the allocation plan can be more in line with the actual situation. In order to effectively improve the application performance of the allocation plan, the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan is dynamically corrected by designing a feedback correction mechanism, so as to improve the constraint control of the water supply allocation plan on actual water use, thereby improving the efficiency of water resource utilization.

[0061] The above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A multi-stage dynamic allocation method for water supply based on a feedback correction mechanism, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Obtain the water quotas of various water users in each water-using unit in the region and the corresponding industry scale, and predict the water demand of each water-using unit in the region; According to the historical water supply data of regional water sources, the water supply of water sources is predicted, and the water supply prediction results of each water source in the region are obtained; According to the water consumption data and economic benefit data of various water users in the region, regression model fitting is used to obtain the functional relationship between water benefits and water consumption of various water users in the region, as well as the functional relationship between water costs and water consumption of various water users in the region; Based on the water consumption forecast results of each water-using unit in the region, the water supply forecast results of each water source in the region, the functional relationship between the water use benefits and water consumption of various water users in the region, and the functional relationship between the water use costs and water consumption of various water users in the region, a water supply allocation model is constructed; Solve and analyze the water supply allocation model to obtain the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan; Based on the evaluation of water supply forecast results and actual water use, the implementation of the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan is judged, and then the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan for the next month is feedback and corrected to obtain the allocation value of the multi-stage dynamic allocation of water supply.

2. The multi-stage dynamic allocation method of water supply based on feedback correction mechanism according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The method for feedback correction of the distribution value of the water supply distribution plan is as follows: Solve the water supply allocation model to obtain the allocation value of the water supply allocation plan for each water user unit in the month. At the end of the month, the actual water consumption data of each water user unit and the actual water supply data of each water source can be obtained. According to the actual water supply data and water supply forecast value of each water-using unit in the current month, determine whether the actual water supply data of each water supply source matches the water supply forecast result; at the same time, calculate the difference between the actual water supply data of each water supply source and the water supply forecast value, and use the difference to correct the water supply forecast value of each water supply source in the next month; According to the actual water consumption data of each water-using unit in the current month and the allocated quantity value of the water supply allocation plan of this month, it is judged whether the actual water consumption data of each water-using unit in the current month matches the allocated quantity value data of the water supply allocation plan of this month; When the actual water consumption data of each water-using unit in the current month is greater than the allocated value of the water supply allocation plan, determine whether the water consumption forecast value of each water-using unit matches the actual water consumption value; when the water consumption forecast value of each water-using unit is less than the actual water consumption value, and the water consumption forecast value is reasonable, an over-water consumption warning is issued to the corresponding water-using unit, and when predicting the water consumption for the next month, the excess water used in the previous month is deducted as a penalty; when the water consumption forecast value of each water-using unit is less than the actual water consumption value, and the water consumption forecast value is too small, the water consumption quota and industry scale for the next month are adjusted, and the water consumption forecast value for the next month is corrected; When the actual water consumption data of each water user in the month is less than the allocated value of the water supply allocation plan, the data difference between the actual water consumption data of each water user in the month and the allocated value of the water supply allocation plan is calculated to obtain the amount of water saved and the amount of water saved is converted into financial rewards according to the water price; If it is judged that the water consumption forecast result is unreasonable, the water consumption quota and industry scale for the next month will be adjusted, and the water consumption forecast value for the next month will be revised.

3. The multi-stage dynamic water supply allocation method based on feedback correction mechanism according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The method to determine the actual water supply data of each water supply source matches the water supply forecast result is: Calculate the deviation between the actual water supply data of each water supply source and the water supply forecast result, and the deviation is within ±20%; The method to determine the matching between the actual water consumption data of each water user in the month and the allocated value of the water supply allocation plan is: Calculate the deviation between the actual water consumption data of each water-using unit in the month and the allocated value of the water supply allocation plan, and the deviation shall be within ±20%; The conditions for feedback correction of the distribution value of the water supply distribution plan are: The deviation between the actual water supply data of each water supply source and the water supply forecast result exceeds ±20%; or, the deviation between the actual water use data of each water use unit in the month and the allocated value of the water supply allocation plan exceeds ±20%.

4. The multi-stage dynamic water supply allocation method based on feedback correction mechanism according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Water supply sources include surface water sources, groundwater sources and unconventional water sources; surface water sources include water storage projects, water diversion projects and water extraction projects; The method for predicting water supply for water storage projects is as follows: The water supply of large-scale water storage projects is calculated according to the following formula: ;in, is the total water supply of large reservoirs, 10,000 m³; is the water supply in period t, ten thousand m³; t is the water supply period; It is calculated by the following formula: ;in, is the storage capacity at the end of the (t+1) period, 10,000 m³; is the storage capacity at the beginning of period t, ten thousand m³; is the water storage capacity in period t, ten thousand m³; is the water surface evaporation in period t, ten thousand m³; is the leakage volume in period t, ten thousand m³; is the amount of water abandoned in period t, 10,000 m³; The water supply of a medium-sized water storage project is calculated according to the following formula: ;in, The water supply of a medium-sized reservoir is 10,000 m³; is the design water supply of the medium-sized reservoir, 10,000 m³; k is the design water supply utilization coefficient; The water supply of a small water storage project is calculated according to the following formula: ;in, is the water supply of the small reservoir or pond, 10,000 m³; n is the number of times the small reservoir or pond is recharged; V is the effective storage capacity of the small reservoir or pond, 10,000 m³; The method for predicting water supply for water diversion projects and water lifting projects is as follows: The water supply of the water diversion project is calculated according to the following formula: ;in, is the water supply of the water diversion project, 10,000 m³; c is the irrigation conservation coefficient; A is the effective irrigation area covered by the water diversion project; M is the gross irrigation quota of the water diversion project; is the canal utilization coefficient; The water supply of the water pumping project is calculated according to the following formula: ;in, The water supply of the water lifting project is 10,000 m³; Y is the minimum value of the water diversion flow, water lifting capacity, and user water demand data set in period t; t is the water diversion flow rate during period t; H t is the water extraction capacity in period t; X t is the user's water demand in period t; t is the water supply period; T is the number of periods.

5. The multi-stage dynamic water supply allocation method based on feedback correction mechanism according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The method for predicting water supply from groundwater sources is as follows: Calculate the water supply from groundwater sources according to the following formula: ;in, The water supply from groundwater source, 10,000 m³; is the minimum value of the water extraction capacity in period t, the exploitable amount of groundwater resources in period t, and the user water demand data set in period t; H t is the water extraction capacity in period t; W t is the exploitable amount of groundwater resources in period t; X t is the user's water demand in period t; t is the water supply period; T is the number of periods.

6. The multi-stage dynamic water supply allocation method based on feedback correction mechanism according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The unconventional water sources include rainwater, brackish water, medium water and seawater. The method for predicting the water supply of unconventional water sources is as follows: Based on the historical water supply data of regional water sources, statistical report analysis is conducted on unconventional water sources to estimate the water supply of unconventional water sources.

7. The multi-stage dynamic water supply allocation method based on feedback correction mechanism according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The functional relationship between water use efficiency and water consumption of various water users in the region is as follows: ; Among them, BENEFIT represents the water use benefit generated by water use; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; The functional relationship between water cost and water consumption of various water users in the region is as follows: ; Among them, COST represents the water cost of various water users; It represents the water cost generated by the water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t.

8. The multi-stage dynamic water supply allocation method based on feedback correction mechanism according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The optimization objectives of the water supply allocation model include economic benefit objectives, allocation fairness objectives, water resource utilization efficiency objectives, and carbon reduction objectives; The objective function of economic benefit is: ; Among them, EP represents economic benefit; max EP represents maximum economic benefit; represents the water loss rate of the ith sub-region during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; represents the water cost generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the ith sub-region in period t; The objective function of distribution fairness is: ; ; Wherein, min Gini represents the minimum Gini coefficient; represents the water use benefits of all water users in the ith sub-region during period t; represents the water use efficiency of the jth water user in the i-th sub-region during period t; i is a or b; represents the water use benefits of all water users in the ath sub-area during period t; represents the water use benefits of all water users in the bth sub-area during period t; represents the water loss rate of the a-th sub-area during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the a-th sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the a-th sub-region during period t; represents the water loss rate of the b-th sub-area during period t; represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the b-th sub-area during period t; It represents the water use benefit generated by the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to the j-th water user in the b-th sub-area in period t; The objective function of water resource utilization efficiency is: ; Among them, max AE represents the maximum utilization efficiency of water resources; It represents the total available water resources in period t; is the water storage capacity in period t; The objective function of the carbon reduction target is: ; Wherein, C represents the carbon reduction target; max C represents the maximum value of the carbon reduction target; represents the carbon sink generated by agricultural water use; It represents the carbon sink generated by water use in ecological environment; represents the carbon source generated by agricultural water withdrawal; represents the carbon sources generated by water withdrawal from other sectors; Indicates the carbon source produced by industrial and domestic water; Represents the carbon source produced by sewage treatment.

9. The multi-stage dynamic water supply allocation method based on feedback correction mechanism according to claim 8 is characterized in that: The calculation formula for carbon sinks generated by agricultural water use is: ;in, represents the net irrigation quota of crops in the i-th sub-region u-th crop in period t, m³ / hm 2 ; Indicates the yield per unit area of ​​the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region, kg / / hm 2 ; represents the moisture content of the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region; represents the economic coefficient of the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region; represents the carbon absorption rate of the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region; The calculation formula for carbon sinks generated by ecological environment water use is: ;in, represents the carbon absorption per unit of water use by the ecological environment department of the i-th sub-region, kg / m³; The calculation formula for the carbon source generated by agricultural water withdrawal is: ;in, represents the net irrigation quota of crops in the i-th sub-region u-th crop in period t, m³ / hm 2 ; represents the carbon emission per unit area of ​​the u-th crop in the i-th sub-region, kg / hm 2 ; represents the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water in the i-th sub-region; The calculation formula for carbon sources generated by water withdrawal from other departments is: ;in, represents the unit water consumption of other sectors (such as life, industry, and environment) in the i-th sub-region, (MW·h) / m³; represents the carbon emission factor per unit of electricity of the jth water user in the ith sub-region, kg / (MW·h); The calculation formula for the carbon source generated by industrial water and domestic water is: ;in, represents the carbon emissions per unit of water use for life and industry in the ith sub-region, kg / m³; The calculation formula for the carbon source generated by sewage treatment is: ;in, represents the unit sewage treatment power consumption of the jth water user in the ith sub-area, (MW·h) / m³; represents the carbon emission factor per unit of electricity of the jth water user in the ith sub-region, kg / (MW·h); represents the sewage discharge coefficient of the jth water user in the ith sub-area; represents the sewage collection rate of the jth water user in the ith sub-area.

10. The multi-stage dynamic water supply allocation method based on feedback correction mechanism according to claim 9, characterized in that: The constraints of the water supply allocation model include: available water constraints, local water limit constraints at each stage of each sub-basin, economic efficiency loss constraints, minimum ecological water constraints, water demand constraints, state transfer equations and their constraints, and variable non-negativity constraints; The available water constraints are: ,and ;in, represents the amount of water supplied by the k-th water source to all water users in the i-th sub-area during period t; It represents the total available amount of river water resources in period t; represents the total amount of water resources from other water sources in the ith sub-region during period t; The local water quantity limit constraints for each sub-basin at each stage are: ;in, represents the initial water right of the ith sub-region in period t; represents the ecological environment water consumption of the ith sub-region during period t; The economic efficiency loss constraint is: ;in, represents the maximum flood benefit coefficient of the jth water user in the ith sub-region; represents the maximum economic benefit value of each industry's unit water consumption in the i-th sub-region; It indicates the total available amount of regional river water resources; The amount of water available from other water sources in the region; The minimum ecological water volume constraint is: ;in, represents the minimum ecological water demand of the ith sub-region in period t; The water demand constraints are: ;in, represents the minimum water demand of the jth water user in the ith sub-area during period t; represents the maximum water demand of the jth water user in the ith sub-area during period t; The state transfer equation and its constraints are: ,and , , ;in, represents the state variable during period t; Represents the state variable of the (t+1) period; represents the initial water right of the ith sub-region in period t; represents the total amount of water resources from other water sources in the ith sub-region during period t; The non-negative constraints on the variables are: ， ， 。

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