Highway construction project carbon emission accounting evaluation method and system

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of carbon emission management, in particular to an expressway construction project carbon emission accounting evaluation method and system, and the method comprises the steps: dividing a system boundary into stages of an expressway construction full life cycle; carbon emission sources are divided into direct emission and indirect emission, and a source list of carbon emission in each stage and corresponding activity data are obtained; selecting carbon emission factors of various emission sources, constructing a carbon emission accounting model, and calculating the carbon emission of each stage; performing uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis on various emission source carbon emission factors and activity data, and optimizing a carbon emission accounting model; and performing comprehensive evaluation on each stage of highway construction to obtain an evaluation result of each stage. According to the invention, the problems of lack of full life cycle coverage and insufficient accounting precision of the existing highway construction carbon emission accounting method are effectively solved, the data accuracy and the model reliability are improved, and the carbon emission management and low-carbon construction targets are comprehensively supported.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of carbon emission management, and in particular to a method and system for carbon emission accounting and evaluation of highway construction projects. Background Art

[0002] With the intensification of global climate change and the proposal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, the transportation industry, as a major energy consumer, faces huge challenges in carbon emission control. As an important part of transportation infrastructure, highway construction generates a large amount of carbon emissions in all links, such as material production, transportation, construction and maintenance. However, the existing carbon emission accounting methods are mostly concentrated in certain links, lacking a systematic method covering the entire life cycle of highway construction, and the uncertainty of data in the accounting process is high, resulting in insufficient accuracy of the results.

[0003] The information disclosed in this background technology section is only intended to deepen the understanding of the overall background technology of the present disclosure, and should not be regarded as acknowledging or suggesting in any form that the information constitutes the prior art known to those skilled in the art. Summary of the invention

[0004] The present invention provides a method and system for calculating and evaluating carbon emissions of highway construction projects, thereby effectively solving the problems pointed out in the background technology.

[0005] In order to achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:

[0006] A method for calculating and evaluating carbon emissions from highway construction projects, comprising:

[0007] Determine the system boundary of highway construction, divide the system boundary into stages of the entire life cycle of highway construction, and define the carbon emission sources and influencing factors corresponding to each stage;

[0008] Divide the carbon emission sources into direct emissions and indirect emissions, and obtain a list of carbon emission sources and corresponding activity data at each stage;

[0009] According to the list of sources of carbon emissions at each stage, select carbon emission factors for various emission sources;

[0010] Based on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, a carbon emission accounting model is constructed to calculate the carbon emissions at each stage and obtain the total carbon emissions of the entire highway construction process;

[0011] Conduct uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, and optimize the carbon emission accounting model by evaluating the impact of data and model inputs on the results;

[0012] Based on the calculated carbon emissions and total carbon emissions of each stage, a comprehensive evaluation is conducted on each stage of highway construction to obtain the evaluation results of each stage.

[0013] Furthermore, according to the list of sources of carbon emissions at each stage, carbon emission factors for various emission sources are selected, including:

[0014] Based on the carbon emission source list of each stage, the emission sources are classified into production source emissions, process source emissions and operation source emissions for each stage;

[0015] Integrate multi-source data based on international standards, regional databases, industry standards and actual engineering monitoring data, and select carbon emission factors corresponding to emission sources;

[0016] Adjust the emission factors in real time according to the specific energy consumption, fuel type, material usage and equipment operation time during the construction process;

[0017] Based on the emission contribution weight calculation method, the comprehensive emission factors for each stage are generated, and the emission factors are optimized based on the energy consumption and emissions measured during construction.

[0018] Furthermore, based on international standards, regional databases, industry standards and actual engineering monitoring data, multi-source data integration is carried out to select carbon emission factors corresponding to emission sources, including:

[0019] Based on the emission factor data in the carbon emission standard literature, the corresponding initial carbon emission factors are selected for each emission source in the entire life cycle of the highway construction project;

[0020] Refer to the regional carbon emission factor database of the project location and make local corrections to the initial carbon emission factor based on the local energy structure, material production process and transportation characteristics;

[0021] Based on transportation industry standards and construction industry specifications, further select carbon emission factors corresponding to specific materials, equipment and processes involved in highway construction;

[0022] The carbon emission factors optimized by international standards, regional databases and industry standards are verified through real-time engineering monitoring data during the construction process.

[0023] Furthermore, a carbon emission accounting model is constructed based on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, including:

[0024] Determine the input parameter set of the carbon emission accounting model according to each stage of the highway construction life cycle;

[0025] Construct a mathematical expression framework for the model to associate the input activity data with the corresponding carbon emission factors;

[0026] Sub-models are established for direct emissions and indirect emissions respectively, and the sub-models are integrated into a unified carbon emission accounting model.

[0027] Furthermore, the mathematical expression framework of the model is constructed to associate the input activity data with the corresponding carbon emission factors, and the basic accounting formula is generated as follows:

[0028] E i =AD i ×EF i

[0029] Among them, E i is the carbon emissions of each emission source, AD i is the activity data of the emission source, EF i is the corresponding carbon emission factor.

[0030] Furthermore, the indirect emission sub-model uses a fuzzy logic algorithm to estimate long-distance carbon emissions, including:

[0031] Determine the key carbon emission influencing factors in the long-distance transportation link of highway construction, and define the influencing factors as fuzzy variables;

[0032] Based on historical data and expert experience, fuzzy rules are established to describe the relationship between fuzzy variables and carbon emissions;

[0033] The fuzzy inference system is used to perform inference calculations on fuzzy variables, and the carbon emission range of each variable is calculated by combining the membership function of each input variable;

[0034] The fuzzy logic algorithm is used to perform defuzzification and obtain the specific value of carbon emissions in long-distance transportation in highway construction projects.

[0035] Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis includes:

[0036] Identify potential sources of uncertainty affecting carbon emission factors and activity data;

[0037] Quantify each source of uncertainty, assign probability distributions to carbon emission factors and activity data, and obtain possible ranges of variation;

[0038] Through the Monte Carlo simulation method, a large amount of random sample data is generated, and multiple iterations of input data are calculated to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on carbon emission results;

[0039] Analyze and quantify the overall impact of uncertainty on model outputs and determine the impact of changes in input parameters on the fluctuations of carbon emission results.

[0040] Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis includes:

[0041] Based on the uncertainty analysis results, identify the key variables that affect carbon emission results;

[0042] After determining the key variables, the value of each variable is systematically adjusted to obtain the change results of carbon emissions;

[0043] According to the designed sensitivity test, adjust the input variables and recalculate the carbon emissions, and analyze the impact of the changes in each of the input variables on the results;

[0044] Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, the importance of each input variable is ranked to identify the factors that are most sensitive to carbon emission results.

[0045] A highway construction project carbon emission accounting and evaluation system, the system comprising:

[0046] A system boundary determination module determines the system boundary of highway construction, divides the system boundary into stages of the entire life cycle of highway construction, and defines the carbon emission sources and influencing factors corresponding to each stage;

[0047] An emission source acquisition module divides the carbon emission sources into direct emissions and indirect emissions, and obtains a source list of carbon emissions at each stage and corresponding activity data;

[0048] An emission factor selection module, which selects carbon emission factors for various emission sources according to the list of sources of carbon emissions at each stage;

[0049] The total emission acquisition module builds a carbon emission accounting model based on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, calculates the carbon emissions at each stage, and obtains the total carbon emissions of the entire highway construction process;

[0050] The accounting model optimization module conducts uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, and optimizes the carbon emission accounting model by evaluating the impact of data and model inputs on the results;

[0051] The evaluation result acquisition module conducts a comprehensive evaluation of each stage of highway construction based on the calculated carbon emissions and total carbon emissions of each stage to obtain the evaluation results of each stage.

[0052] Furthermore, the emission factor selection module includes:

[0053] A detailed classification unit is used to classify the emission sources in each stage based on the list of carbon emission sources in each stage, wherein the detailed classification includes production source emission, process source emission and operation source emission;

[0054] The data integration unit integrates multi-source data based on international standards, regional databases, industry standards and actual engineering monitoring data, and selects carbon emission factors corresponding to emission sources;

[0055] A factor adjustment unit adjusts the emission factor in real time according to specific energy consumption, fuel type, material usage and equipment operation time during the construction process;

[0056] The factor optimization unit generates comprehensive emission factors for each stage based on the emission contribution weight calculation method, and optimizes the emission factors based on the energy consumption and emissions measured during the construction period.

[0057] The technical solution of the present invention can achieve the following technical effects:

[0058] It effectively solves the problems of lack of full life cycle coverage and insufficient accounting accuracy in existing highway construction carbon emission accounting methods, improves data accuracy and model reliability, and fully supports carbon emission management and low-carbon construction goals. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0059] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments recorded in the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0060] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a carbon emission accounting and evaluation method for highway construction projects;

[0061] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the process for selecting carbon emission factors for various emission sources;

[0062] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the process of selecting carbon emission factors corresponding to emission sources through multi-source data integration;

[0063] Figure 4 A flow chart for building a carbon emission accounting model;

[0064] Figure 5 Schematic diagram of the process for long-range carbon emission estimation;

[0065] Figure 6Schematic diagram of the uncertainty analysis process;

[0066] Figure 7 Schematic diagram of the sensitivity analysis process. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0067] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments.

[0068] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as those commonly understood by those skilled in the art of the present invention. The terms used in the specification of the present invention are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. The term "and / or" used herein includes any and all combinations of one or more related listed items.

[0069] Embodiment 1

[0070] like Figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a method for calculating and evaluating carbon emissions of highway construction projects, the method comprising:

[0071] S1: Determine the system boundary of highway construction, divide the system boundary into stages of the entire life cycle of highway construction, and define the carbon emission sources and influencing factors corresponding to each stage;

[0072] Specifically, the system boundary covers the main links in the process of highway construction, including five stages: material production, material transportation, construction, maintenance, and terminal disposal. In the material production stage, carbon emissions mainly come from the manufacturing process of building materials such as cement, steel, and asphalt. The carbon emissions involved are closely related to the energy consumed in the mining, processing, and production of materials; the material transportation stage includes the carbon emissions generated by transporting these building materials from the production site to the construction site, which is mainly caused by fuel consumption during transportation; in the construction stage, the operation of construction machinery and the consumption of fuel or electricity during the use of equipment constitute the main source of carbon emissions. Typical construction activities include roadbed paving and bridge construction; the maintenance stage involves daily maintenance and repair work after the operation of the highway. The relevant carbon emissions come from the use of maintenance machinery and equipment and the reinvestment of maintenance materials; the terminal disposal stage includes activities such as demolition, transformation, and material recycling at the end of the service life of the highway. The carbon emissions in this stage involve the processing and reuse of materials. To ensure the accuracy of the calculation, this embodiment further defines the influencing factors of each stage. The influencing factors refer to the key variables that may affect the carbon emissions. For example, material consumption determines the emissions in production and transportation, the transportation distance directly affects the vehicle fuel consumption, and the efficiency of the use of construction machinery determines the energy consumption of the equipment during operation. By defining and controlling these factors, the carbon emissions of each stage can be calculated more systematically and accurately.

[0073] S2: Divide the sources of carbon emissions into direct emissions and indirect emissions, and obtain the source list of carbon emissions at each stage and the corresponding activity data;

[0074] Specifically, direct emissions refer to carbon dioxide emissions directly generated by fuel combustion, mechanical equipment operation and other activities during highway construction. For example, emissions generated by fuel consumption by construction machinery during roadbed laying and bridge construction, as well as energy consumption of on-site power generation equipment; indirect emissions refer to carbon emissions indirectly generated during material production and transportation, or the use of external electricity. During the material production process, the energy consumed in the production of building materials such as cement and steel, as well as the fuel consumed during the transportation of these materials, are all indirect emissions. For each stage, a detailed list of carbon emission sources is formed based on direct and indirect emissions. For example, in the material production stage, indirect emissions come from energy consumption in cement plants and steel plants; while direct emissions during the construction stage come from fuel consumption of construction equipment.

[0075] S3: Select the carbon emission factors for each type of emission source based on the list of carbon emission sources at each stage;

[0076] Specifically, the carbon emission factor refers to the greenhouse gas emissions generated by each unit of activity data (such as fuel consumption and material usage), which is used to quantify the carbon emissions of various emission sources. This factor establishes a relationship between specific activity data and corresponding carbon emissions, providing a basis for carbon emission accounting.

[0077] In the material production stage, the carbon emission factor is selected based on the energy consumption in the construction material production process. For example, the production process of cement and steel requires a lot of energy, so their carbon emission factors are usually high. In the material transportation stage, the corresponding carbon emission factor is selected based on the type of fuel used by the transportation tool (such as diesel and gasoline). For example, the carbon emission factor of diesel transportation vehicles can be expressed as the carbon dioxide equivalent emitted for every liter of diesel consumed. In the construction stage, the carbon emission factor of the fuel during the operation of construction equipment is also crucial. For equipment that consumes diesel, the selected carbon emission factor will reflect the carbon dioxide emissions per liter of diesel. According to the fuel consumption of construction machinery, the carbon emission factor is combined with the specific fuel consumption data to accurately calculate the direct carbon emissions during the construction process.

[0078] S4: Based on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, a carbon emission accounting model is constructed to calculate the carbon emissions at each stage and obtain the total carbon emissions of the entire highway construction process;

[0079] Specifically, the carbon emission accounting model gradually calculates the carbon emissions of each link by combining the activity data of each stage with the carbon emission factor. The activity data includes material consumption, transportation distance, equipment operation time, fuel consumption, etc., and the carbon emission factor is selected based on the aforementioned emission source characteristics, such as fuel type and carbon emission factor of material production. In the material production stage, the model calculates the carbon emissions of this stage based on the consumption of building materials and the carbon emission factor of the materials. The consumption of each building material (such as cement, steel and asphalt) is multiplied by its corresponding carbon emission factor to obtain the carbon emissions of the material production stage; in the material transportation stage, the model uses the fuel type, transportation distance and load data of the transportation tool, combined with the carbon emission factor of the fuel, to calculate the carbon emissions generated during the transportation process. By multiplying the transportation distance with the fuel consumption of the transportation tool and introducing the carbon emission factor of the fuel, the carbon emissions of this link are obtained; the carbon emissions of the construction stage are calculated based on the operation time and fuel consumption data of the construction equipment. The model estimates the carbon emissions generated during the construction process based on the fuel consumption of each equipment and the carbon emission factor of the fuel. The fuel consumption during the operation of mechanical equipment directly determines the carbon emission level during the construction phase; the maintenance phase involves daily maintenance and repair work after the operation of the highway. The carbon emissions are calculated in a similar way to the construction phase. The carbon emissions of this phase are obtained by analyzing the frequency of use and fuel consumption of maintenance equipment and combining the carbon emission factor. Finally, the model adds up the carbon emissions of each stage to obtain the total carbon emissions of the entire life cycle of highway construction. This method ensures a comprehensive and systematic accounting of carbon emissions in various links such as material production, transportation, construction, and maintenance, thereby providing accurate data support for carbon emissions management throughout the life cycle.

[0080] S5: Conduct uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis on carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, and optimize the carbon emission accounting model by evaluating the impact of data and model inputs on the results;

[0081] Specifically, uncertainty analysis helps identify potential sources of error in carbon emission factors and activity data, assesses the impact of these uncertainties on the results, and reduces errors caused by data fluctuations; sensitivity analysis systematically adjusts key input variables, observes their impact on carbon emission results, determines which factors are most sensitive to the results, and thus identifies variables that need to be managed and optimized. The significance of this step is to improve the accuracy of the model, ensure that the accounting results are closer to reality, and provide reliable data support for low-carbon management of highway construction. In addition, the analysis results can help optimize resource inputs, give priority to controlling factors that have a greater impact on carbon emissions, and then formulate more reasonable carbon reduction strategies and technical adjustment plans.

[0082] S6: Based on the calculated carbon emissions and total carbon emissions of each stage, a comprehensive evaluation is conducted on each stage of highway construction to obtain the evaluation results of each stage.

[0083] Specifically, after calculating the carbon emissions in different stages such as material production, transportation, construction, maintenance and terminal disposal, the carbon emissions in these stages are compared and analyzed with the total carbon emissions results. In the comprehensive evaluation process, the carbon emissions of each stage are first evaluated based on the proportion of carbon emissions in the total carbon emissions. For example, if the proportion of carbon emissions in the material production and transportation stages is significantly higher than that in other stages, these links will be marked as key focus objects. In addition, the evaluation process also considers the carbon emission reduction potential of each stage. By analyzing factors such as construction technology, material selection, and transportation methods, optimization measures that can effectively reduce carbon emissions can be identified. After completing the comprehensive evaluation, the evaluation results of each stage are obtained, including the carbon emission contribution, emission reduction potential, and feasibility analysis of specific optimization measures of each stage. Through these comprehensive evaluations, project managers can formulate precise low-carbon strategies for each stage, optimize resource allocation, and ultimately achieve carbon emission control goals throughout the life cycle.

[0084] The present invention effectively solves the problems of lack of full life cycle coverage and insufficient accounting accuracy in existing highway construction carbon emission accounting methods, improves data accuracy and model reliability, and fully supports carbon emission management and low-carbon construction goals.

[0085] As a preferred embodiment of the above, Figure 2 As shown, step S3, according to the list of sources of carbon emissions at each stage, select the carbon emission factors of various emission sources, including:

[0086] S31: Based on the list of carbon emission sources at each stage, the emission sources are classified into production source emissions, process source emissions and operation source emissions for each stage;

[0087] S32: Integrate multi-source data based on international standards, regional databases, industry standards and actual engineering monitoring data, and select carbon emission factors corresponding to emission sources;

[0088] S33: Adjust emission factors in real time based on specific energy consumption, fuel type, material usage and equipment operation time during construction;

[0089] S34: Generate comprehensive emission factors for each stage based on the emission contribution weight calculation method, and optimize the emission factors based on the energy consumption and emissions measured during construction.

[0090] Specifically, first, based on the list of sources of carbon emissions at each stage, the emission sources at each stage are classified into production source emissions (such as emissions generated by energy consumption in the material production process), process source emissions (such as energy consumption during material transportation and construction) and operation source emissions (such as emissions generated during the use, maintenance and operation of construction equipment). Through this detailed classification, the sources of carbon emissions at each stage can be more clearly defined, providing a basis for selecting appropriate carbon emission factors; then, based on international standards, regional databases, industry standards and monitoring data from actual projects, an integrated analysis of multi-source data is conducted to select carbon emission factors corresponding to each emission source. For example, for the production of building materials such as cement and steel, the emission factors in the international carbon emission database can be referenced; for regional energy use, regionalized carbon emission factors can also be selected based on local energy structure and consumption patterns to ensure the accuracy and applicability of accounting data. During the construction process, as data such as energy consumption, fuel type, material usage and equipment operating hours change in real time, the emission factor needs to be adjusted dynamically. For example, changes in fuel consumption type (such as from diesel to natural gas) or changes in equipment working hours will have different impacts on carbon emissions. Therefore, the emission factor needs to be updated and adjusted in real time according to the actual construction situation to reflect the actual situation of on-site emissions; finally, the comprehensive emission factor of each stage is generated through the calculation method of emission contribution weights. The emission contribution weights are a calculation method that weights the degree of influence of each emission source on the total emissions. Combined with the energy consumption and specific emission data measured during construction, the emission factors of each stage are continuously optimized to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the final accounting results.

[0091] As a preferred embodiment of the above, Figure 3 As shown, step S32, based on international standards, regional databases, industry standards and actual engineering monitoring data, multi-source data integration is performed to select carbon emission factors corresponding to emission sources, including:

[0092] S321: Based on the emission factor data in the carbon emission standard literature, select the corresponding initial carbon emission factor for each emission source in the entire life cycle of the highway construction project;

[0093] S322: Refer to the regional carbon emission factor database of the project location and make local corrections to the initial carbon emission factor based on the local energy structure, material production process and transportation characteristics;

[0094] S323: Based on transportation industry standards and construction industry specifications, further select carbon emission factors corresponding to specific materials, equipment and processes involved in highway construction;

[0095] S324: Verify the carbon emission factors optimized by international standards, regional databases and industry standards through real-time engineering monitoring data during the construction process.

[0096] Specifically, first, based on the emission factor data in the carbon emission standard literature, select the initial carbon emission factors of each emission source in the entire life cycle of highway construction. The literature data usually comes from the carbon emission guidelines issued by authoritative international organizations (such as IPCC), covering emission factors in material production, transportation, construction and maintenance. For example, the production emission factors of cement and steel will be initially selected based on the standard data in these international literatures; refer to the regional carbon emission factor database of the project location, and make local corrections to the initial carbon emission factors based on the local energy structure, material production process and transportation characteristics. For example, if the project location mainly relies on coal-fired power generation, the carbon emission factors of electricity use must be adjusted accordingly according to the energy structure of the region. In addition, if the local material production process differs from the international standard, the emission factors of material production also need to be adjusted. Carry out regional corrections; based on transportation industry standards and construction industry specifications, further select carbon emission factors corresponding to specific materials, equipment and processes involved in the highway construction process. For example, some special construction equipment or materials (such as asphalt pavers, special concrete mixes) have clear energy consumption and emission specifications in industry standards. Therefore, when selecting carbon emission factors, it is necessary to adjust the emissions of these specific processes and equipment according to industry standards; verify the carbon emission factors optimized by international standards, regional databases and industry standards through real-time engineering monitoring data during the construction process. In actual construction, obtain data such as equipment operating time, fuel consumption, and material use in real time, and compare and verify them with the selected carbon emission factors. Through feedback from actual monitoring data, the carbon emission factors can be further optimized and corrected to ensure the accuracy of the final accounting model.

[0097] As a preferred embodiment of the above, Figure 4 As shown in the figure, a carbon emission accounting model is constructed based on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, including:

[0098] A10: Determine the input parameter set of the carbon emission accounting model based on the various stages of the highway construction life cycle;

[0099] A20: Construct the mathematical expression framework of the model to associate the input activity data with the corresponding carbon emission factors;

[0100] A30: Establish sub-models for direct emissions and indirect emissions respectively, and integrate the sub-models into a unified carbon emission accounting model.

[0101] Specifically, first, according to the various stages of the entire life cycle of highway construction, the input parameter set of the carbon emission accounting model is determined. The input parameter set includes key activity data required for stages such as material production, material transportation, construction, maintenance, and terminal disposal, such as material consumption, transportation distance, fuel consumption, equipment operating time, etc. In addition, each parameter must be associated with the corresponding carbon emission factor to ensure that the model can accurately reflect the actual emissions. For example, in the material production stage, the consumption of cement, steel, etc. will be used as the input parameter of the model; next, the mathematical expression framework of the carbon emission accounting model is constructed, the input activity data is associated with its corresponding carbon emission factor, and the carbon emissions of the activity are calculated. The carbon emission calculation formula for each stage is calculated by the activity of that stage. The model is composed of dynamic data and corresponding emission factors to ensure that the carbon emissions of each link can be accurately calculated through the model. For example, the carbon emissions during the construction phase can be determined by multiplying the fuel consumption of the construction equipment by the carbon emission factor of the fuel. In order to distinguish different emission types, sub-models are established for direct emissions and indirect emissions respectively. The direct emission sub-model mainly includes emissions generated during the operation of construction equipment and on-site energy consumption, while the indirect emission sub-model covers carbon emissions from indirect links such as material production and transportation. By establishing these two types of sub-models, the source and impact of each type of emission can be calculated more accurately. Finally, the direct emission and indirect emission sub-models are integrated into a unified carbon emission accounting model to achieve comprehensive accounting of carbon emissions over the entire life cycle of the entire highway construction.

[0102] As a preferred embodiment of the above, a mathematical expression framework of the model is constructed to associate the input activity data with the corresponding carbon emission factor to generate a basic accounting formula:

[0103] E i =AD i ×EF i

[0104] Among them, E i is the carbon emissions of each emission source, AD i is the activity data of the emission source, EF i is the corresponding carbon emission factor.

[0105] Specifically, the function of this basic formula is to combine specific activity data (such as fuel consumption, material usage, etc.) with standard carbon emission factors to calculate the carbon emissions generated by the activity. For example, in the material production stage, the carbon emissions of cement are E 水泥 The cement consumption AD 水泥 Its corresponding carbon emission factor EF 水泥 Multiplying together, we can get: Similarly, during the construction phase, the carbon emissions of construction machinery are E 设备 The amount of fuel AD consumed by the machine during operation燃料 The carbon emission factor EF of the fuel 燃料 The emission accounting of each link follows this mathematical expression framework to ensure that the emissions of each stage can be systematically calculated through the association of activity data with carbon emission factors. This formula is applicable to all types of emission sources, whether direct emissions (such as equipment operation, fuel consumption) or indirect emissions (such as material production, transportation). This basic accounting formula can be used for unified calculation, thus providing reliable data input for the overall carbon emission model.

[0106] As a preferred embodiment of the above, Figure 5 As shown in the figure, the fuzzy logic algorithm is used to estimate long-distance carbon emissions for the indirect emission sub-model, including:

[0107] B10: Determine the key carbon emission influencing factors in the long-distance transportation link of highway construction and define the influencing factors as fuzzy variables;

[0108] B20: Based on historical data and expert experience, fuzzy rules are established to describe the relationship between fuzzy variables and carbon emissions;

[0109] B30: Use the fuzzy inference system to perform inference calculations on fuzzy variables, and combine the membership functions of each input variable to calculate the carbon emission range of each variable;

[0110] B40: Defuzzification is performed through fuzzy logic algorithm to obtain specific values ​​of carbon emissions in long-distance transportation in highway construction projects.

[0111] Specifically, firstly, the key carbon emission influencing factors in the long-distance transportation link of highway construction are determined, and these factors are defined as fuzzy variables. The key carbon emission influencing factors include transportation distance, fuel efficiency of transportation tools, transportation load, road conditions, etc. These factors may not have precise values, so they are represented by fuzzy variables. Fuzzy variables can describe influencing factors such as "transportation distance" as "short", "medium", and "long", and fuel efficiency as "low", "medium", and "high", so as to describe and process the impacts in different situations; based on historical data and expert experience, fuzzy rules are established to describe the relationship between fuzzy variables and carbon emissions. Fuzzy rules are expressed in the form of "if-then", for example: "If the transportation distance is 'long' and the fuel efficiency is 'low', then the carbon emissions are 'high'". These rules are established through expert experience and existing historical data to associate the combination of different fuzzy variables with carbon emission results; using fuzzy inference system (Fuzzy Inference System) The system uses a fuzzy information system (FIS) to perform inference calculations on the input fuzzy variables. Based on fuzzy rules and membership functions (i.e., the probability distribution of the level to which each fuzzy variable belongs, such as "medium distance" may have a membership of 0.6), the system calculates the carbon emission range corresponding to each variable. By reasoning and combining multiple input variables, the carbon emission range in the overall transportation process is obtained. Finally, the fuzzy logic algorithm is used to perform defuzzification and convert the fuzzy reasoning results into specific carbon emission values. Commonly used defuzzification methods include weighted average method or centroid method, which are used to convert fuzzy values ​​(such as "medium to high carbon emissions") into accurate carbon emission values. The purpose of this step is to obtain the final quantitative carbon emission results from the interval or fuzzy value obtained by fuzzy reasoning, so as to provide accurate data support for the carbon emission accounting of long-distance transportation links in highway construction projects.

[0112] As a preferred embodiment of the above, Figure 6 As shown, uncertainty analysis includes:

[0113] C10: Identify potential sources of uncertainty affecting carbon emission factors and activity data;

[0114] C20: Quantitatively analyze each source of uncertainty, assign probability distributions to carbon emission factors and activity data, and obtain possible ranges of variation;

[0115] C30: Generate a large amount of random sample data through Monte Carlo simulation method, perform multiple iterations of input data, and evaluate the impact of uncertainty on carbon emission results;

[0116] C40: Analyze and quantify the overall impact of uncertainty on model outputs and determine the impact of changes in input parameters on the fluctuations of carbon emission results.

[0117] Specifically, first, in the process of carbon emission accounting, uncertainty may come from a variety of sources, such as data measurement errors, deviations in model assumptions, fluctuations in equipment efficiency, differences in energy consumption in the material production process, etc. These sources of uncertainty will affect the accuracy of carbon emission factors and activity data, and thus affect the accuracy of accounting results. Therefore, identifying all potential sources of uncertainty is the first step in quantitative analysis; then, quantitative analysis is performed on each source of uncertainty. The core of quantification is to assign appropriate probability distributions to each carbon emission factor and activity data to indicate its possible range of variation. Common probability distributions include normal distribution, uniform distribution, etc. For example, fuel consumption data may have a 5% measurement error, which can be represented by a normal distribution. Through this quantitative processing, the variable fluctuations caused by uncertainty can be considered in the model; then, the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate a large amount of random sample data. By performing multiple random sampling and iterative calculations on the input data, the impact of uncertainty on the carbon emission accounting results is simulated. Monte Carlo simulation allows multiple simulations through a large number of random samples, so that a more comprehensive prediction and evaluation of possible results can be made. This method can show how fluctuations in input data affect the range of output results; finally, the overall impact of uncertainty on the model output is analyzed and quantified. By analyzing the results of the Monte Carlo simulation, the impact of changes in input parameters on the fluctuations in carbon emission results can be evaluated. Finally, the most sensitive input parameters are determined, that is, the factors that have the greatest impact on the fluctuations in the results. These sensitive factors may need to be given priority control in subsequent optimizations to improve the accuracy and stability of the model.

[0118] As a preferred embodiment of the above, Figure 7 As shown, sensitivity analyses included:

[0119] D10: Based on the uncertainty analysis results, identify the key variables that affect carbon emissions results;

[0120] D20: After determining the key variables, systematically adjust the value of each variable to obtain the change results of carbon emissions;

[0121] D30: According to the designed sensitivity test, adjust the input variables and recalculate the carbon emissions, and analyze the impact of the changes in each input variable on the results;

[0122] D40: Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, rank the importance of each input variable and identify the factors that are most sensitive to carbon emission results.

[0123] Specifically, first, based on the results of uncertainty analysis, identify the key variables that have the most significant impact on carbon emission results. These variables may be the main factors causing fluctuations in model output results, such as fuel consumption, equipment usage time, material transportation distance, etc. By identifying these key variables, we can focus on in-depth analysis and optimization. After identifying the key variables, we systematically adjust the value of each variable to test the impact of these variable changes on carbon emissions. By increasing or decreasing the value of each variable (such as increasing or decreasing it by 10%), we can simulate the impact of these variables on carbon emissions under different conditions, thereby quantifying their role in overall carbon emission accounting. According to the designed sensitivity test, adjust the input variables one by one and recalculate the carbon emissions. Adjust one variable at a time while keeping other variables unchanged to observe the impact of the change in the variable on the carbon emission results. Through this single-factor analysis method, the sensitivity of each input variable can be accurately evaluated. This process can be repeated many times to ensure that the impact of all variables is fully evaluated. Finally, according to the results of the sensitivity analysis, the importance of each input variable is ranked. By comparing the impact of the adjustment of each input variable on the results, the factors that are most sensitive to the carbon emission results are identified. These sensitive factors may include fuel consumption, transportation distance or equipment utilization efficiency. Optimizing these highly sensitive variables can significantly improve the accuracy of carbon emission accounting.

[0124] Embodiment 2

[0125] Based on the same inventive concept as the carbon emission accounting and evaluation method for a highway construction project in the aforementioned embodiment, the present invention further provides a carbon emission accounting and evaluation system for a highway construction project, the system comprising:

[0126] The system boundary determination module determines the system boundary of highway construction, divides the system boundary into stages of the entire life cycle of highway construction, and defines the carbon emission sources and influencing factors corresponding to each stage;

[0127] The emission source acquisition module divides the carbon emission sources into direct emissions and indirect emissions, and obtains the source list of carbon emissions at each stage and the corresponding activity data;

[0128] The emission factor selection module selects the carbon emission factors of various emission sources according to the list of carbon emission sources at each stage;

[0129] The total emission acquisition module builds a carbon emission accounting model based on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, calculates the carbon emissions at each stage, and obtains the total carbon emissions of the entire highway construction process;

[0130] The accounting model optimization module conducts uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis on carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, and optimizes the carbon emission accounting model by evaluating the impact of data and model inputs on the results;

[0131] The evaluation result acquisition module conducts a comprehensive evaluation of each stage of highway construction based on the calculated carbon emissions and total carbon emissions of each stage to obtain the evaluation results of each stage.

[0132] The above-mentioned evaluation system in the present invention can effectively implement the carbon emission accounting evaluation method for highway construction projects, and the technical effects that can be achieved are as described in the above-mentioned embodiments, which will not be repeated here.

[0133] Furthermore, the emission factor selection module includes:

[0134] Refine the classification units. Based on the list of carbon emission sources at each stage, refine the emission sources for each stage into production source emissions, process source emissions and operation source emissions;

[0135] The data integration unit integrates multi-source data based on international standards, regional databases, industry standards and actual engineering monitoring data, and selects carbon emission factors corresponding to emission sources;

[0136] The factor adjustment unit adjusts the emission factor in real time according to the specific energy consumption, fuel type, material usage and equipment operation time during the construction process;

[0137] The factor optimization unit generates comprehensive emission factors for each stage based on the emission contribution weight calculation method, and optimizes the emission factors based on the energy consumption and emissions measured during the construction period.

[0138] Similarly, the above-mentioned optimization schemes for the system can also respectively achieve the optimization effects corresponding to the method in Example 1, which will not be repeated here.

[0139] Although the present application has been described in conjunction with specific features and embodiments thereof, it is obvious that various modifications and combinations may be made thereto without departing from the spirit and scope of the present application. Accordingly, this specification and the accompanying drawings are merely exemplary illustrations of the present application as defined therein, and are deemed to have covered any and all modifications, variations, combinations or equivalents within the scope of the present application. Obviously, a person skilled in the art may make various modifications and variations to the present application without departing from the scope of the present application. Thus, if these modifications and variations of the present application fall within the scope of the present application and its equivalents, the present application is intended to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A method for calculating and evaluating carbon emissions from highway construction projects, characterized in that: include: Determine the system boundary of highway construction, divide the system boundary into stages of the entire life cycle of highway construction, and define the carbon emission sources and influencing factors corresponding to each stage; Divide the carbon emission sources into direct emissions and indirect emissions, and obtain a list of carbon emission sources and corresponding activity data at each stage; According to the list of sources of carbon emissions at each stage, select carbon emission factors for various emission sources; Based on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, a carbon emission accounting model is constructed to calculate the carbon emissions at each stage and obtain the total carbon emissions of the entire highway construction process; Conduct uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, and optimize the carbon emission accounting model by evaluating the impact of data and model inputs on the results; Based on the calculated carbon emissions and total carbon emissions of each stage, a comprehensive evaluation is conducted on each stage of highway construction to obtain the evaluation results of each stage.

2. The highway construction project carbon emission accounting and evaluation method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: According to the list of sources of carbon emissions at each stage, select carbon emission factors for various emission sources, including: Based on the carbon emission source list of each stage, the emission sources are classified into production source emissions, process source emissions and operation source emissions for each stage; Integrate multi-source data based on international standards, regional databases, industry standards and actual engineering monitoring data, and select carbon emission factors corresponding to emission sources; Adjust the emission factors in real time according to the specific energy consumption, fuel type, material usage and equipment operation time during the construction process; Based on the emission contribution weight calculation method, the comprehensive emission factors for each stage are generated, and the emission factors are optimized based on the energy consumption and emissions measured during construction.

3. The highway construction project carbon emission accounting and evaluation method according to claim 2 is characterized in that: Based on international standards, regional databases, industry standards and actual engineering monitoring data, multi-source data integration is carried out to select carbon emission factors corresponding to emission sources, including: Based on the emission factor data in the carbon emission standard literature, the corresponding initial carbon emission factors are selected for each emission source in the entire life cycle of the highway construction project; Refer to the regional carbon emission factor database of the project location and make local corrections to the initial carbon emission factor based on the local energy structure, material production process and transportation characteristics; Based on transportation industry standards and construction industry specifications, further select carbon emission factors corresponding to specific materials, equipment and processes involved in highway construction; The carbon emission factors optimized by international standards, regional databases and industry standards are verified through real-time engineering monitoring data during the construction process.

4. The highway construction project carbon emission accounting and evaluation method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: A carbon emission accounting model is constructed based on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, including: Determine the input parameter set of the carbon emission accounting model according to each stage of the highway construction life cycle; Construct a mathematical expression framework for the model to associate the input activity data with the corresponding carbon emission factors; Sub-models are established for direct emissions and indirect emissions respectively, and the sub-models are integrated into a unified carbon emission accounting model.

5. The highway construction project carbon emission accounting and evaluation method according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The mathematical expression framework of the model is constructed, and the input activity data is associated with the corresponding carbon emission factors to generate the basic accounting formula: AND i =AD i ×EF i Among them, E i is the carbon emissions of each emission source, AD i is the activity data of the emission source, EF i is the corresponding carbon emission factor.

6. The highway construction project carbon emission accounting and evaluation method according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The indirect emission sub-model uses fuzzy logic algorithm to estimate long-distance carbon emissions, including: Determine the key carbon emission influencing factors in the long-distance transportation link of highway construction, and define the influencing factors as fuzzy variables; Based on historical data and expert experience, fuzzy rules are established to describe the relationship between fuzzy variables and carbon emissions; The fuzzy inference system is used to perform inference calculations on fuzzy variables, and the carbon emission range of each variable is calculated by combining the membership function of each input variable; The fuzzy logic algorithm is used to perform defuzzification and obtain the specific value of carbon emissions in long-distance transportation in highway construction projects.

7. The highway construction project carbon emission accounting and evaluation method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The uncertainty analysis includes: Identify potential sources of uncertainty affecting carbon emission factors and activity data; Quantify each source of uncertainty, assign probability distributions to carbon emission factors and activity data, and obtain possible ranges of variation; Through the Monte Carlo simulation method, a large amount of random sample data is generated, and multiple iterations of input data are calculated to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on carbon emission results; Analyze and quantify the overall impact of uncertainty on model outputs and determine the impact of changes in input parameters on the fluctuations of carbon emission results.

8. The highway construction project carbon emission accounting and evaluation method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The sensitivity analysis included: Based on the uncertainty analysis results, identify the key variables that affect carbon emission results; After determining the key variables, the value of each variable is systematically adjusted to obtain the change results of carbon emissions; According to the designed sensitivity test, adjust the input variables and recalculate the carbon emissions, and analyze the impact of the changes in each of the input variables on the results; Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, the importance of each input variable is ranked to identify the factors that are most sensitive to carbon emission results.

9. A highway construction project carbon emission accounting and evaluation system, characterized in that: The system comprises: A system boundary determination module determines the system boundary of highway construction, divides the system boundary into stages of the entire life cycle of highway construction, and defines the carbon emission sources and influencing factors corresponding to each stage; An emission source acquisition module divides the carbon emission sources into direct emissions and indirect emissions, and obtains a source list of carbon emissions at each stage and corresponding activity data; An emission factor selection module, which selects carbon emission factors for various emission sources according to the list of sources of carbon emissions at each stage; The total emission acquisition module builds a carbon emission accounting model based on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, calculates the carbon emissions at each stage, and obtains the total carbon emissions of the entire highway construction process; The accounting model optimization module conducts uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis on the carbon emission factors and activity data of various emission sources, and optimizes the carbon emission accounting model by evaluating the impact of data and model inputs on the results; The evaluation result acquisition module conducts a comprehensive evaluation of each stage of highway construction based on the calculated carbon emissions and total carbon emissions of each stage to obtain the evaluation results of each stage.

10. The highway construction project carbon emission accounting and evaluation system according to claim 9 is characterized in that: The emission factor selection module includes: A detailed classification unit is used to classify the emission sources in each stage based on the list of carbon emission sources in each stage, wherein the detailed classification includes production source emission, process source emission and operation source emission; The data integration unit integrates multi-source data based on international standards, regional databases, industry standards and actual engineering monitoring data, and selects carbon emission factors corresponding to emission sources; A factor adjustment unit adjusts the emission factor in real time according to specific energy consumption, fuel type, material usage and equipment operation time during the construction process; The factor optimization unit generates comprehensive emission factors for each stage based on the emission contribution weight calculation method, and optimizes the emission factors based on the energy consumption and emissions measured during the construction period.

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