Urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method, device and electronic equipment

Abstract

The present invention provides a method, device and electronic equipment for assessing the operation risk of urban lifeline pipelines, wherein the method includes: based on the inherent properties of each lifeline pipeline in the lifeline system, the external disaster interference of the lifeline system and the coupling relationship between the pipelines in the lifeline system, analyzing the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline; based on the vulnerability factors related to the disaster-bearing body, performing vulnerability analysis on the disaster-bearing body to obtain the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body; analyzing the early prevention and preparation, monitoring and rescue disposal of the urban emergency management department for emergencies, and obtaining the emergency management level of the urban emergency management department; based on the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level, comprehensively calculating the analysis results; based on the analysis results, dividing the risk level, and proposing lifeline pipeline protection measures. The present invention can systematically analyze the risks of lifeline pipelines, which helps managers to formulate protection strategies for risky pipelines and avoid the waste of public safety resources.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of pipeline detection, and in particular to a method, device and electronic equipment for assessing the operation risk of urban lifeline pipelines. Background Art

[0002] Urban lifeline pipelines are network-like public works that guarantee the production and life of urban residents and maintain the basic functions of the city, mainly including electricity, gas, water supply and drainage, heat, communication pipelines, etc. However, under the interference of internal and external environmental factors, urban lifeline pipelines may cause many unsafe factors and cause damage to the entire lifeline system.

[0003] At present, there are few comprehensive studies on urban lifeline pipelines at the system level, and most of them are studies on specific pipelines and single disasters. Therefore, the existing analysis methods are difficult to truly reflect the risk size of urban lifeline pipelines in practical applications, and the accuracy is low. Summary of the invention

[0004] The present invention provides a method, device and electronic equipment for evaluating the operation risk of urban lifeline pipelines, which are used to solve the problem in the prior art that it is difficult to accurately evaluate the operation risk of urban lifeline pipelines, and achieve the goal of improving the accuracy of the results of urban lifeline pipeline operation risk evaluation.

[0005] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for assessing the operation risk of a city lifeline pipeline, comprising: analyzing and obtaining the possibility of failure of a lifeline pipeline based on the inherent properties of each lifeline pipeline in the lifeline system, external disaster interference of the lifeline system, and the coupling relationship between pipelines in the lifeline system;

[0006] Based on the vulnerability factors related to the disaster-susceptible body, performing vulnerability analysis on the disaster-susceptible body to obtain the vulnerability of the disaster-susceptible body;

[0007] Analyze the early prevention and preparation, monitoring and rescue and disposal of emergencies by the city's emergency management department to obtain the emergency management level of the city's emergency management department;

[0008] Based on the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level, comprehensively calculate and analyze the results;

[0009] Based on the analysis results, the operational risk of the lifeline pipeline is evaluated.

[0010] In a second aspect, the present invention further provides a device for evaluating the operation risk of a city lifeline pipeline, including: a failure analysis module for analyzing the possibility of failure of a lifeline pipeline based on the inherent properties of each lifeline pipeline in the lifeline system, external disaster interference of the lifeline system, and the coupling relationship between pipelines in the lifeline system;

[0011] A vulnerability indicator module is used to perform vulnerability analysis on the disaster-susceptible body based on a vulnerability factor related to the disaster-susceptible body to obtain the vulnerability of the disaster-susceptible body;

[0012] The emergency management module is used to analyze the early prevention and preparation, monitoring and rescue and disposal of emergencies by the city emergency management department, and obtain the emergency management level of the city emergency management department;

[0013] An analysis result module, used to comprehensively calculate the analysis result based on the failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level;

[0014] The protection measures module classifies risk levels based on the analysis results and proposes protection measures for lifeline pipelines.

[0015] In a third aspect, the present invention further provides an electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the program, the steps of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method as described in the first aspect above are implemented.

[0016] In a fourth aspect, the present invention further provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method as described in the first aspect above are implemented.

[0017] The method, device and electronic equipment for assessing the operation risk of urban lifeline pipelines provided by the present invention obtain the causes of failure of lifeline pipelines, analyze the possibility of failure of lifeline pipelines, conduct vulnerability analysis on disaster-bearing bodies, and reflect the emergency management level of urban emergency management departments for emergencies from three aspects: prevention and preparation, monitoring and rescue disposal. The operation risks of lifeline pipelines are assessed more systematically and accurately. The classification of high, medium and low risks in the assessment results helps managers to focus on protecting medium and high risk pipelines and avoid wasting public safety resources. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0018] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present invention or the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0019] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention;

[0020] Figure 2 It is an example diagram of the coupling relationship between external disturbance disasters in the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention;

[0021] Figure 3 It is an example diagram of the external disturbance-lifeline pipeline coupling relationship of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention;

[0022] Figure 4 It is a relationship diagram between pipe diameter and safety critical burial depth of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention;

[0023] Figure 5 It is a correction curve diagram of the spatial position on social impact of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention;

[0024] Figure 6 It is a schematic diagram of the analysis result model of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention;

[0025] Figure 7 It is a structural schematic diagram of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment device provided by the present invention;

[0026] Figure 8 It is a structural schematic diagram of the electronic device provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0027] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0028] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a process flow of a method for assessing the operation risk of urban lifeline pipelines provided by the present invention is shown in FIG. Figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a method for assessing the operation risk of urban lifeline pipelines, comprising:

[0029] Step S101, based on the inherent properties of each lifeline pipeline in the lifeline system, external disaster interference of the lifeline system and the coupling relationship between the pipelines in the lifeline system, the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline is analyzed;

[0030] Step S102, based on the vulnerability factors related to the disaster-susceptible body, performing vulnerability analysis on the disaster-susceptible body to obtain the vulnerability of the disaster-susceptible body;

[0031] Step S103, analyzing the early prevention preparation, monitoring and rescue disposal of the city emergency management department for the emergency, and obtaining the emergency management level of the city emergency management department;

[0032] Step S104, comprehensively calculating and analyzing results based on the failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level;

[0033] Step S105, based on the analysis results, risk levels are classified and lifeline pipeline protection measures are suggested.

[0034] The urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention obtains the possibility of lifeline pipeline failure by analyzing the cause of lifeline pipeline failure, and reflects the emergency management level of the urban emergency management department to emergencies from three aspects: prevention and preparation, monitoring and rescue disposal. It assesses the operation risk of lifeline pipelines more systematically and accurately. The classification of high, medium and low risks in the assessment results helps managers to focus on protecting medium and high risk pipelines and avoid wasting public safety resources.

[0035] The following further describes possible implementations of the above five steps in a specific embodiment.

[0036] Step S101, based on the inherent properties of each lifeline pipeline in the lifeline system, external disaster interference of the lifeline system and the coupling relationship between the pipelines in the lifeline system, the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline is analyzed.

[0037] Among them, the inherent attributes refer to the material, wall thickness, diameter, service life, laying method, equipment defects, pipeline corrosion, etc. of the pipeline. Lifeline pipelines include power, gas, water supply and drainage, heat, communication pipelines, etc. External disaster interference refers to the impact of common natural disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, ground subsidence, ground fissures, ground collapse, strong winds, heavy precipitation (rain or rain and snow), and low temperatures on lifeline pipelines.

[0038] A coupling relationship refers to an interaction and mutual influence between two things.

[0039] It can be understood that before conducting an overall analysis of the city's lifeline pipelines, the inherent properties of different types of lifeline pipelines in the lifeline system are first obtained through literature research, expert consultation, etc. At the same time, since external disasters and lifeline pipelines have a mutual influence relationship, and there is a mutual influence relationship between the pipelines of each system in the lifeline system, the external disaster interference of the lifeline system and the coupling relationship between the pipelines in the lifeline system are obtained through literature research and a large number of case analyses. Then, based on the acquired inherent properties, external disaster interference, and the coupling relationship between the pipelines in the lifeline system, the possibility of damage to the lifeline pipeline to be detected is comprehensively calculated.

[0040] Step S102: Based on the vulnerability factors related to the disaster-susceptible body, a vulnerability analysis is performed on the disaster-susceptible body to obtain the vulnerability of the disaster-susceptible body.

[0041] Among them, the disaster-prone objects include people, buildings, transportation and other lifeline pipelines. Vulnerability refers to the degree to which the disaster-prone objects are easily damaged when they are affected by disasters. Vulnerability factors refer to social vulnerability information. Different disaster-prone objects correspond to different vulnerability factors. For example, the social vulnerability information of people can be population density and population composition, and the social vulnerability information of buildings can be building structure, fire resistance grade and building use.

[0042] It can be understood that since the city's lifeline pipelines serve the safe operation of the city, when a disaster occurs, there is a mutual influence between the city's lifeline pipelines and the relevant disaster-bearing bodies. Therefore, in order to conduct an overall analysis of the city's lifeline pipelines, it is also necessary to analyze the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing bodies and obtain the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing bodies.

[0043] Step S103, analyzing the early prevention preparation, monitoring and rescue disposal of the city emergency management department for the emergency, and obtaining the emergency management level of the city emergency management department.

[0044] The purpose of emergency management is to prevent and reduce the harm caused by sudden accidents and to take various measures to optimize the solution of the incident. In general, managers need to analyze and judge the cause, process and consequences of the emergency in a timely manner. Then, based on the judgment, they deploy relevant resources for early warning, control and disposal.

[0045] In this embodiment, the city emergency management level is evaluated mainly from three aspects: early prevention and preparation, monitoring and rescue of emergencies by the city emergency management department. Based on fuzzy theory, the secondary indicators and their corresponding weights of emergency management level evaluation are determined through expert scoring and hierarchical analysis, as shown in Table 1. The formula for calculating the city emergency management level is:

[0046] T=t1v1+t2v2

[0047] Among them, T is the emergency management level of the city’s emergency management department; t1 is the first-level indicator of the emergency management level; v1 is the corresponding weight of the first-level indicator; t2 is the second-level indicator of the emergency management level; v2 is the corresponding weight of the second-level indicator.

[0048] Table 1. Evaluation indicators and weights of emergency management level

[0049]

[0050]

[0051]

[0052] Step S104, comprehensively calculating and analyzing results based on the failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level.

[0053] It can be understood that after obtaining the possibility of failure of lifeline pipelines, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, the emergency management level of urban emergency management departments, and social impact corrections, a comprehensive calculation is performed to obtain an analysis result that reflects the actual situation of the lifeline pipeline to be evaluated. The following formula includes:

[0054]

[0055] In the formula, R represents the analysis result, I i represents the inherent failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline, E i,j represents the failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance, C i represents the possibility of coupled failure between lifeline system pipelines resulting in the failure of the ith lifeline pipeline due to the interaction between lifeline system pipelines, V represents the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body, θ represents the social impact correction coefficient, and T represents the emergency management level of the city emergency management department.

[0056] Step S105, based on the analysis results, risk levels are classified and lifeline pipeline protection measures are suggested.

[0057] Among them, the operation risk refers to the operation risk of the equipment of the lifeline pipeline during the working process. It can be understood that after the analysis results are obtained through comprehensive calculation, the analysis results are classified into risk levels according to the risk level classification table, as shown in Table 2. And a risk response strategy is formulated to reasonably allocate public safety resources, and when facing the processed risk level, the corresponding response strategy can be matched to simplify the operation steps and reasonably allocate public safety resources.

[0058] Table 2, Risk level classification table

[0059] Risk Level Risk Score Low risk [0,40) Medium risk [40,60) Higher risk [60,80) High risk [80,100]

[0060] The present invention provides a method for assessing the operational risk of urban lifeline pipelines. By analyzing the possibility of failure of lifeline pipelines, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and the emergency management level of urban emergency management departments for emergencies, the operational risk of lifeline pipelines can be more accurately assessed. The classification of high, medium, and low risks in the assessment results helps managers focus on protecting medium and high risk pipelines and avoid wasting public safety resources.

[0061] Based on the content of the above embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the analysis to obtain the possibility of lifeline pipeline failure includes:

[0062] By analyzing the inherent properties of each of the lifeline pipelines and the operating conditions of the lifeline pipelines, an inherent failure possibility index of the lifeline pipelines is obtained;

[0063] By analyzing the coupling relationship between various disaster disturbances that affect the effective operation of the lifeline system and the coupling rules between the various disaster disturbances and the lifeline system, the possibility index of failure of the lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance is obtained;

[0064] By analyzing the coupling relationship between the pipelines of each system in the lifeline system, a coupling failure possibility index between the pipelines of the lifeline system is obtained;

[0065] The failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline is calculated based on the inherent failure possibility index of the lifeline pipeline, the external disturbance failure possibility index of the lifeline pipeline and the coupling failure possibility index between the lifeline system pipelines.

[0066] Among them, the possibility of lifeline pipeline failure needs to be analyzed from three aspects.

[0067] First, analyze the inherent failure of lifeline pipelines. Analyze the inherent failure factors of lifeline pipelines from the overall perspective of lifeline pipelines. The inherent failure possibility of lifeline pipelines mainly refers to the possibility of damage to the pipeline network caused by the pipeline's own properties and operating conditions.

[0068] Secondly, analyze the possibility of failure of lifeline pipelines due to external disturbances. There is a complex coupling relationship between disasters and between disasters and lifeline pipelines. For example, earthquakes, as a natural disaster with a wide range of effects and huge damage, will not only cause damage to urban lifeline pipelines, but may also trigger other derivative natural disasters such as ground subsidence and landslides. Derivative natural disasters may also cause damage to the pipelines of the lifeline system; earthquakes may also cause explosions of stored hazardous chemicals, affecting lifeline pipelines.

[0069] Third, analyze the possibility of coupling failure between pipelines in the lifeline system. The urban lifeline system has the characteristics of coupling and chain disasters, that is, the damage of any link in the lifeline system will affect the operation of part or all of the system functions. Therefore, there are also complex influences between pipelines in the urban lifeline system.

[0070] By analyzing the failure possibilities of the above three aspects and comprehensively calculating the three values, the failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline is obtained.

[0071] The present invention divides the failure possibility of lifeline pipelines into three aspects: inherent failure possibility of lifeline pipelines, external disturbance failure possibility of lifeline pipelines and coupling failure possibility between lifeline system pipelines. The failure possibility of lifeline pipelines is calculated more systematically and comprehensively, and the vulnerability of urban lifeline pipelines is more realistically reflected.

[0072] Based on the content of the above embodiment, as an optional embodiment, obtaining the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance specifically includes:

[0073] Based on the Markov property, the primary coupling relationship between the various disaster disturbances is analyzed to obtain the coupling relationship index value between the various disaster disturbances;

[0074] By analyzing the failure effects of the various disaster disturbances on different types of pipelines in the lifeline system, the coupling relationship index values ​​between the various disaster disturbances and the lifeline system are obtained;

[0075] Based on the coupling relationship index values ​​between the various disaster disturbances and the coupling relationship index values ​​between the various disaster disturbances and the lifeline system, the failure probability of the external disturbance of the lifeline pipeline is calculated according to the following formula, and the following formula includes:

[0076]

[0077] Among them, E i represents the failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance, L q is the probability of disaster q occurring, η q is the probability that disaster q will cause the failure of the i-th lifeline pipeline, β q,j is the probability that disaster q will cause disaster j to occur, η j The probability that disaster j will cause the failure of the i-th lifeline pipeline;

[0078] Preferably, the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance is determined by two factors: the coupling relationship between external disturbance disasters and the coupling relationship between external disturbances and various disaster disturbances and the lifeline system.

[0079] Through literature research and sample analysis, the coupling relationship between various disaster disturbances is summarized and sorted out. For example, Figure 2 This is an example diagram of the coupling relationship between external disturbance disasters in the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention. Figure 2 As shown in the figure, the coupling relationships between various external disturbance disasters related to earthquake disasters are as follows: earthquake-landslide, earthquake-ground collapse, earthquake-ground subsidence, earthquake-ground fissures, earthquake-hazardous chemical leakage, landslide-hazardous chemical accident, heavy rainfall-landslide, etc., among which strong wind and heavy rainfall are often accompanied.

[0080] Taking earthquake-triggered landslides as an example, the occurrence of landslides is not only related to earthquake disasters, but also depends on local topography, stratum lithology, seismic structure, hydrogeological conditions, etc. Therefore, the research on the triggering mechanism between disasters is simplified here, and the danger of the initial disaster and the susceptibility of the triggered disaster are directly considered. It is believed that when the danger of the initial disaster is high and the possibility of the triggered disaster is high, the triggering relationship between the two disasters is stronger, that is, the initial disaster is more likely to cause the occurrence of the triggered disaster.

[0081] Earthquake disasters have a wide impact range and serious consequences, and are very likely to trigger the occurrence of other disasters. Based on the triggering relationship between disasters summarized in the topic, the coupling rules between earthquakes, ground subsidence, ground fissures, ground collapse, landslides, and hazardous chemical accidents were sorted out.

[0082] Through literature research and sample analysis, the coupling rules between earthquakes and other disasters were determined: earthquake-triggered ground subsidence mainly considers five factors, namely, earthquake intensity, shallow groundwater level, stratum lithology, and land compressibility; earthquake-triggered ground collapse mainly considers three factors, namely, earthquake intensity, shallow groundwater level, and stratum lithology. The specific evaluation indicators and corresponding indicators are shown in Tables 3 to 6.

[0083] Table 3 Earthquake-ground settlement coupling rules

[0084]

[0085]

[0086] Table 4 Earthquake-ground collapse coupling rules

[0087]

[0088] Table 5 Earthquake-ground fissure coupling rules

[0089]

[0090] Table 6 Earthquake-landslide coupling rules

[0091]

[0092]

[0093] When analyzing the coupling relationship between earthquakes and other geological hazards, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of previous earthquakes on the geological conditions of the area. The 15 years after the earthquake is a period of strong activity for geological hazards. Therefore, it is necessary to consider whether there have been large earthquakes in the previous period. That is, if an earthquake with an intensity greater than 8 has occurred in the local area within 15 years, the possibility of the earthquake triggering other geological hazards will be increased by 1 level.

[0094] In addition, rainfall and landslides are closely related and are important factors in inducing landslides. However, there is also the possibility of landslides caused by snowfall. Continuous rain and snow will cause snowfall to melt quickly and seep into the soil, increasing the weight of the soil, reducing its strength, and causing deformation and damage. Therefore, the consideration of landslides caused by heavy rainfall is increased. The specific coupling rules are shown in Table 7.

[0095] Table 7 Heavy precipitation-landslide coupling rules

[0096]

[0097] It should be noted that hazardous chemical accidents mainly refer to fires and explosions of hazardous chemicals at gas stations, and leaks of toxic and harmful gases. In this embodiment, the situation where earthquakes and landslides trigger hazardous chemical accidents is mainly considered. The above situations are all considered from the perspective of the danger of earthquakes or landslides and the possibility of hazardous chemical accidents. However, the impact range of earthquakes is large, and landslide disasters have limited impact ranges, which need to be reflected in the coupling rules. Here, the quality of the protective measures taken by hazardous chemical companies for the storage of hazardous chemicals is used to characterize the possibility of hazardous chemical accidents. Specific coupling rules are shown in Tables 8 and 9.

[0098] Table 8, Earthquake-hazardous chemicals accident coupling rules

[0099]

[0100]

[0101] Table 9, Landslide-hazardous chemicals accident coupling rules

[0102]

[0103] In addition, through literature support and sample analysis, the coupling relationship index between external disturbance disasters and urban lifeline pipelines is formulated, that is, the possibility of external disturbance disasters leading to the failure of urban lifeline pipelines is analyzed. Figure 3 This is an example diagram of the external disturbance-lifeline pipeline coupling relationship of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention. Figure 3Among them, the possible situations in which external disturbances lead to failure of lifeline systems are: earthquake - buried pipelines, overhead pipeline towers; ground subsidence - buried pipelines, overhead pipeline towers; ground collapse - buried pipelines, overhead pipeline towers; landslides - buried pipelines, overhead pipeline towers; ground fissures - buried pipelines, overhead pipeline towers; low temperatures - buried pipelines, overhead pipeline towers; strong winds - overhead pipelines; heavy precipitation (snowfall) - overhead pipelines; hazardous chemical fires and explosions - buried pipelines, overhead pipeline poles.

[0104] For example, the impact of strong winds on lifeline pipelines is mainly reflected in the impact of strong winds on overhead pipelines. It can be seen that when the wind speed is 0.5-10m / s and acts vertically on the overhead line, the overhead line will produce low-frequency self-excited vibration with a large amplitude, which may cause fatigue damage to the overhead line and break the line. When the wind speed is too high, there is a possibility that the overhead line will be subjected to excessive impact and cause the tower to collapse. Therefore, the impact of strong winds on overhead pipelines mainly considers factors such as customs, protective measures for overhead cables, and the service life of the pipeline. The specific coupling rules are shown in Table 10.

[0105] Table 10, Strong Wind-Overhead Cable Coupling Rules

[0106]

[0107] Since overhead cables in high-latitude areas usually have measures to prevent low temperatures, low-temperature disasters mainly consider the impact of low-temperature icing on overhead pipelines. When strong winds and low temperatures are coupled, low-temperature icing is more likely to cause failure of overhead cables. When the temperature is between -5 and 0°C and the wind speed is between 1 and 15 m / s, if there is dense fog, rain, etc., and the air humidity exceeds 85%, low-temperature icing of overhead pipelines may occur. Therefore, an assessment is made from three perspectives: weather conditions, cable protection measures, and cable service life. The specific coupling rules are shown in Table 11.

[0108] Table 11, Low temperature - overhead pipeline coupling rules

[0109]

[0110] As the temperature drops, some areas will experience a frozen ground period. Therefore, the impact of low temperature disasters on buried pipelines is taken into consideration. The impact of low temperature on buried pipelines is mainly reflected in: under low temperature conditions, buried pipelines will experience frost heave and thaw sinking. Therefore, when assessing the possibility of failure of buried pipelines due to low temperature disasters, it is necessary to comprehensively consider factors such as climate temperature, pipeline insulation measures, pipeline material, and pipeline service life. The evaluation indicators refer to Table 12.

[0111] Table 12, Low temperature disaster-buried pipeline coupling rules

[0112]

[0113] Earthquakes can damage the support poles and signal towers of overhead cables, causing them to fail. Therefore, an assessment is conducted from three perspectives: earthquake intensity, the material of the support poles and signal towers, and the service life. The assessment details are shown in Figure 13.

[0114] Table 13, Earthquake-overhead cable coupling rules

[0115]

[0116] There are three possible forms of damage to buried pipelines at faults under earthquakes: tensile cracking, local buckling, and beam buckling. Consider the earthquake intensity, pipeline material, and pipeline service life. The rules are shown in Table 14.

[0117] Table 14, Earthquake-Buried Pipeline Coupling Rules

[0118]

[0119] Geological disasters such as ground collapse, ground subsidence, ground fissures, and landslides can cause the failure of lifeline pipelines. Similar to earthquake disasters, under the action of these geological disasters, the pipelines will deform under stress and fail. Therefore, the study of the mechanism can be simplified, and the possibility of geological disasters and the difficulty of pipeline failure can be directly considered. However, the impact range of earthquakes is relatively wide, which will affect the lifeline pipelines in the entire assessment area, but geological disasters such as ground collapse, ground subsidence, ground fissures and landslides need to consider the scope of the disaster. The rules are shown in Tables 15 to 21.

[0120] Table 15, Ground collapse-buried pipeline coupling rules

[0121]

[0122] Table 16, Ground collapse-overhead cable coupling rules

[0123]

[0124] Table 17, Landslide-Buried Pipeline Coupling Rules

[0125]

[0126]

[0127] Table 18, Landslide-Overhead Cable Coupling Rules

[0128]

[0129] Table 19, Ground fissure-buried pipeline coupling rules

[0130]

[0131] Table 20, Ground fissure-overhead cable coupling rules

[0132]

[0133] Table 21, Ground Subsidence-Buried Pipeline Coupling Rules

[0134]

[0135]

[0136] Hazardous chemical accidents mainly refer to fires and explosions of hazardous chemicals and leaks of toxic and hazardous gases. This embodiment considers the impact of fires and explosions of hazardous chemicals on buried lifeline pipelines and overhead cables. Fires and explosions of hazardous chemicals may damage the support poles and signal towers of overhead cables, which may cause the overhead cables to fail. There are overpressure injuries, vibration injuries, and thermal radiation injuries in hazardous chemical fires and explosions. Overpressure injuries have the largest destructive range. Therefore, the system calculates the overpressure injury range and grades it according to national standards. The calculation formula is:

[0137]

[0138] In the formula, ΔP represents the overpressure damage range; Q is the explosion TNT equivalent / kg, R represents the ratio of the explosion point to the cube root of the explosion TNT equivalent, and the level of ΔP can be divided into: ΔP takes 0.02MPa-R1, ΔP takes 0.05MPa-R2, ΔP takes 0.07MPa-R3, and ΔP takes 0.10MPa-R4.

[0139] Among them, the hazardous chemicals accident-overhead line coupling rules are shown in Table 22.

[0140] Table 22, Hazardous Chemicals Accidents - Overhead Cable Coupling Rules

[0141]

[0142]

[0143] The vibration damage caused by hazardous chemical fire and explosion is the main cause of buried pipeline failure. The critical safety vibration velocity of buried pipelines was obtained through literature research, and the critical safety distance R between buried pipelines and hazardous chemical explosions was calculated by combining the Sadovsky formula. S .

[0144]

[0145] V is the particle vibration velocity, cm / s; Rs is the critical safety distance between the buried pipeline and the explosion of hazardous chemicals, m is the charge, kg; K is a coefficient related to rock properties, blasting methods, geological and topographical conditions, etc., α is the blasting vibration attenuation coefficient, which is taken as 1.13.

[0146] Among them, the coupling rules for hazardous chemicals accidents and buried pipelines are shown in Table 23.

[0147] Table 23, Hazardous Chemicals Accidents - Buried Pipeline Coupling Rules

[0148]

[0149] By obtaining the coupling relationship between various disaster disturbances and the coupling relationship between various disaster disturbances and the lifeline system, the failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline external disturbance is calculated according to the following formula:

[0150]

[0151] Among them, E i represents the failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance, L q is the probability of disaster q occurring, η q is the probability that disaster q will cause the failure of the i-th lifeline pipeline, β q,j is the probability that disaster q will cause disaster j to occur, η j is the probability that disaster j will cause the i-th lifeline pipeline to fail.

[0152] The present invention obtains the possibility of failure of lifeline pipelines due to external disturbances by obtaining the coupling relationship between various disaster disturbances and the coupling relationship between various disaster disturbances and the lifeline system through detailed analysis of the interaction between various disaster disturbances and the failure impact of various disaster disturbances on different types of pipelines in the lifeline system. It comprehensively reflects the real vulnerability of urban lifeline pipelines.

[0153] Based on the content of the above embodiment, as an optional embodiment, obtaining the inherent failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline specifically includes:

[0154] According to the type, inherent properties and operating conditions of each of the lifeline pipelines, the inherent failure probability of each of the lifeline pipelines is determined, and based on the inherent failure index of the lifeline pipeline, the inherent failure probability of the lifeline pipeline is calculated according to the following formula:

[0155] I i =∑A ki w ki

[0156] In the formula, I irepresents the inherent failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline, A ki represents the inherent failure index of the i-th lifeline pipeline, w ki Represents the weight corresponding to the inherent failure index of the i-th lifeline pipeline.

[0157] Specifically, before evaluating the lifeline pipeline, first obtain the type of lifeline pipeline to be evaluated, such as gas pipeline, power pipeline, communication pipeline, heat pipeline, water supply and drainage pipeline, etc., and formulate the lifeline pipeline failure possibility index and corresponding weight according to the corresponding attributes of the pipeline, such as pipeline material, wall thickness, service life, laying method, equipment defects, pipeline corrosion, etc., according to the difficulty of obtaining the evaluation data, and calculate the inherent failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline through the above formula. Preferably, the method of obtaining the coupling failure possibility between lifeline system pipelines includes:

[0158] Determine a physical coupling failure index according to the physical coupling relationship between the pipelines in the lifeline system, and determine a functional coupling failure index according to the functional coupling relationship between the pipelines in the lifeline system;

[0159] Based on the physical coupling failure index and the functional coupling failure index, the coupling failure possibility between pipelines of the lifeline system is calculated as follows:

[0160]

[0161] In the formula, C i represents the possibility of coupling failure between pipelines in the lifeline system, which may lead to the failure of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to the interaction between pipelines in the lifeline system. f It represents the functional coupling failure index, C p Represents the physical coupling failure index, I r represents the inherent failure probability of the non-assessed pipeline r, E r represents the external disturbance failure possibility of the non-assessed pipeline r, ω represents the weight of the physical coupling relationship;

[0162] Since the urban lifeline system has the characteristics of coupling and chain disasters, that is, the damage of any link in the lifeline system may affect the operation of part or all of the system functions. Through a large number of sample analyses, the coupling relationship between the pipelines of the urban lifeline system is summarized into two categories: functional coupling relationship and physical coupling relationship.

[0163] The physical coupling relationship is mainly from the perspective of spatial distance and geographical association. The failure of one pipeline leads to the damage of another pipeline. For example, gas pipelines, water supply and drainage pipelines, heat pipelines, electricity, and communication pipelines are laid around the road, and there is a geographical connection between the pipelines. Once the underground pipeline breaks and leaks, it will cause uneven settlement of the soil and damage the pipelines under the adjacent roadbed. By using the national pipeline laying standards and existing distance standards as the basis for judgment, physical coupling failure indicators are formulated.

[0164] Functional coupling relationship refers to the existence of a functional supply relationship between pipelines, that is, there is a material output between two pipelines. For example, most of the heating in the north currently uses natural gas, and the natural gas pipeline network provides fuel supply for the thermal pipeline network to ensure the service quality of the thermal pipeline network. By determining the functional relationship between pipelines, the functional coupling failure index is formulated.

[0165] Based on the obtained physical coupling failure index and functional coupling failure index, the possibility of coupling failure between pipelines in the lifeline system is calculated according to the above formula.

[0166] The calculating of the failure probability of the lifeline pipeline includes:

[0167] Based on the inherent failure probability of the lifeline pipeline, the failure probability of the lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance, and the coupling failure probability between the lifeline system pipelines, the failure probability of the lifeline pipeline is calculated as follows:

[0168] P i =I i +E i +C i

[0169] Where P i represents the failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline, I i represents the inherent failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline, E i represents the failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance, C i It represents the possibility of coupling failure between pipelines in the lifeline system resulting in the failure of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to the interaction between pipelines in the lifeline system.

[0170] In this embodiment, the types of lifeline pipelines include gas pipelines, power pipelines, communication pipelines, heat pipelines, and water supply and drainage pipelines.

[0171] Below, the present invention is further described by way of examples:

[0172] (1) Gas pipeline

[0173] The present invention mainly analyzes the possibility of gas pipeline failure from aspects such as pipeline corrosion, pipeline properties, and laying methods, mainly considering indicators such as wall thickness, service life, pipe diameter, pipeline defects, pipeline covering anti-corrosion layer, and soil corrosiveness. The gas pipeline's own failure possibility indicators and weights are shown in Table 24.

[0174] Table 24, Gas pipeline failure probability index

[0175]

[0176]

[0177] (2) Power pipelines

[0178] The inherent failure possibility of power pipelines is mainly evaluated based on indicators such as failure rate, service life and anti-corrosion coating condition. The indicators are shown in Table 25.

[0179] Table 25, Power pipeline failure probability index

[0180]

[0181] (3) Communication pipeline

[0182] The inherent failure possibility of the communication pipeline mainly considers indicators such as service life, failure rate of communication optical cables and condition of the anti-corrosion layer. The communication pipeline's own failure possibility indicators and weights are shown in Table 26.

[0183] Table 26, Communication pipeline failure probability index

[0184]

[0185] (4) Thermal pipeline

[0186] The inherent failure possibility of thermal pipelines mainly takes into account indicators such as service life, the nature of the medium in the pipeline, the treatment of the pipeline anti-corrosion layer, and the soil corrosiveness of the area where the thermal pipeline is buried. The corresponding indicators and weights are shown in Table 27.

[0187] Table 27, Thermal pipeline failure probability index

[0188]

[0189] (5) Water supply and drainage pipelines

[0190] The main possible factors that may lead to the failure of water supply and drainage pipelines include: service life, pipe diameter, pipe type, pipe pressure, pipeline failure rate, pipeline burial depth, water flow rate and other factors. The summarized water supply and drainage pipeline failure possibility indicators and weights are shown in Table 28.

[0191] Table 28, Failure possibility index of water supply and drainage pipelines

[0192]

[0193]

[0194] The coupling rules between pipelines in the urban lifeline system are shown in Tables 29 to 37.

[0195] Table 29, Physical coupling rules for gas and other pipelines

[0196]

[0197]

[0198]

[0199]

[0200] S: Cross-sectional area of ​​adjacent underground space (independent manholes, rainwater and sewage pipelines, drainage culverts)

[0201] Table 30, Rules for coupling gas and other pipeline functions

[0202]

[0203]

[0204] Table 31, Thermal and other pipeline physical coupling rules

[0205]

[0206]

[0207]

[0208] Table 32, Coupling rules for thermal and other pipeline functions

[0209]

[0210] Table 33, Physical coupling rules for water supply and other pipelines

[0211]

[0212]

[0213]

[0214] Table 34, Physical coupling rules for water supply and other pipelines

[0215]

[0216]

[0217] Table 35, Physical coupling rules for drainage and other pipelines

[0218]

[0219]

[0220]

[0221] Table 36, Drainage and other pipeline function coupling rules

[0222]

[0223] Table 37, Physical coupling rules for power and other pipelines

[0224]

[0225]

[0226]

[0227] Qc: Gas leakage rate, kg / s.

[0228] The present invention determines the relationship between the diameter of the drainage pipe and the safe burial depth through numerical simulation. When the burial depth of the drainage pipe is greater than the critical burial depth, the impact of the drainage pipe explosion on the support pole and the signal tower can be ignored. The relationship between the pipe diameter and the critical burial depth is shown in Table 38. Figure 4 It is a relationship diagram between pipe diameter and safety critical burial depth of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention.

[0229] Table 38, Correspondence between drainage pipe diameter and critical safety depth

[0230]

[0231]

[0232] The coupling rules between electricity and other pipeline functions are shown in Table 39.

[0233] Table 39, Rules for coupling power and other pipeline functions

[0234]

[0235] The physical coupling rules between communication and other pipelines are shown in Table 40:

[0236] Table 40, Communication and other pipeline physical coupling rules

[0237]

[0238]

[0239]

[0240] Table 41, Communication and other pipeline function coupling rules

[0241]

[0242] The present invention specifically analyzes the coupling relationship between different types of lifeline pipelines and calculates the possibility of coupling failure of the lifeline pipelines through the obtained values, thereby more accurately reflecting the vulnerability of the city's lifeline pipelines.

[0243] Based on the content of the above embodiment, as an optional embodiment, performing vulnerability analysis on the disaster-susceptible body based on the vulnerability factor related to the disaster-susceptible body to obtain the vulnerability of the disaster-susceptible body includes:

[0244] By analyzing the influence of the vulnerability factors on the failure of the disaster-bearing body, the weight coefficients corresponding to the vulnerability factors are determined, and the influence of the failure of the lifeline pipeline on each type of disaster-bearing body is analyzed to determine the weight coefficients corresponding to each type of disaster-bearing body. Finally, based on the vulnerability factors, the weight coefficients corresponding to the vulnerability factors and the weight coefficients corresponding to each type of disaster-bearing body, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body is calculated according to the following formula:

[0245]

[0246] In the formula, V represents the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body, μ i The weight coefficient corresponding to the i-th type of disaster-bearing body, γ j represents the weight coefficient corresponding to the jth vulnerability factor, S ij represents the jth vulnerability factor associated with the ith type of hazard-bearing object, and m represents the total number of vulnerability factors.

[0247] In this embodiment, since the city lifeline pipeline serves the safe operation of the city, once the city lifeline pipeline is damaged, the relevant disaster-bearing objects will also be affected.

[0248] After integrating the social vulnerability information (vulnerability factor) of the disaster-prone body, the vulnerability coefficient and weight are determined through expert scoring. The specific vulnerability assessment indicators are shown in Table 42.

[0249] Table 42, Disaster-prone body vulnerability index table

[0250]

[0251]

[0252] The present invention analyzes the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body in detail and combines the weight coefficients corresponding to the vulnerability factors to accurately calculate the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body, thereby further improving the accuracy of the risk assessment model for urban lifeline pipelines.

[0253] Based on the content of the above embodiment, as an optional embodiment, it also includes:

[0254] According to the spatial position of the disaster-prone body, the distance from the disaster-prone body to the center of the disaster-prone area is determined, and based on the distance, the social impact correction coefficient is calculated as follows:

[0255]

[0256] In the formula, θ represents the social impact correction coefficient, and d represents the distance from the disaster-bearing body to the center of the disaster-occurring area;

[0257] The vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body is corrected by using the social impact correction coefficient.

[0258] Preferably, accidents occur in different locations, which will have different impacts. From the perspective of social impact and social concern, accidents occurring in the city center, where the flow of people is dense, will have a much greater impact than accidents occurring in the suburbs where the flow of people is sparse. Figure 5 This is a correction curve diagram of the spatial position of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention on the social impact. Figure 5 As shown, the closer the accident site is to the city center, the greater the social impact.

[0259] The present invention determines the social impact correction coefficient by analyzing the distance between the disaster-susceptible body and the center of the disaster-occurring area, corrects the vulnerability of the disaster-susceptible body, and further improves the accuracy of risk assessment of urban lifeline pipelines.

[0260] Based on the content of the above embodiment, as an optional embodiment, the comprehensive calculation and analysis results based on the failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level include:

[0261] Based on the failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level, combined with the social impact correction coefficient, the analysis result is calculated according to the following formula, which includes:

[0262]

[0263] In the formula, R represents the analysis result, I i represents the inherent failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline, E irepresents the failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance, C i represents the possibility of coupled failure between lifeline system pipelines resulting in the failure of the ith lifeline pipeline due to the interaction between lifeline system pipelines, V represents the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body, θ represents the social impact correction coefficient, and T represents the emergency management level of the city emergency management department.

[0264] Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram of the analysis result model of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the present invention. Figure 6 As shown in the figure, the model collects a large number of urban lifeline pipeline accident cases from various aspects for case analysis and sorting, summarizes the causes of lifeline pipeline failure, and divides them into three categories: inherent failure possibility of lifeline pipeline, coupling failure possibility between systems and external disturbance failure possibility; and comprehensively considers the city's emergency management capabilities and the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing objects within the assessment scope to form an analysis result model for urban lifeline pipelines.

[0265] The present invention obtains the failure possibility of lifeline pipelines, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies and the emergency management level, and combines the social impact correction coefficient to facilitate a more accurate assessment of the risk value of urban lifeline pipelines.

[0266] The urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment device provided by the present invention is described below. The urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment device described below and the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method described above can be referenced to each other.

[0267] An embodiment of the present invention provides a device for assessing the operation risk of a city lifeline pipeline, such as Figure 7 As shown, it mainly includes: a failure analysis module 701, a vulnerability indicator module 702, an emergency management module 703, an analysis result module 704 and a protective measures module 705; wherein, the failure analysis module 701 is used to analyze the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline based on the inherent attributes of each lifeline pipeline in the lifeline system, the external disaster interference of the lifeline system and the coupling relationship between the pipelines in the lifeline system; the vulnerability indicator module 702 is used to perform vulnerability analysis on the disaster-bearing body based on the vulnerability factor related to the disaster-bearing body to obtain the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body; the emergency management module 703 is used to analyze the early prevention and preparation, monitoring and rescue disposal of the urban emergency management department for emergencies, and obtain the emergency management level of the urban emergency management department; the analysis result module 704 is used to comprehensively calculate the analysis results based on the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level; the protective measures module 705 is used to classify the risk level based on the analysis results and put forward suggestions for protective measures for lifeline pipelines.

[0268] The present invention provides a device for evaluating the operation risk of urban lifeline pipelines. The device analyzes the causes of failure of lifeline pipelines to obtain the possibility of lifeline pipeline failures, and more systematically and accurately evaluates the operation risks of lifeline pipelines by performing vulnerability analysis on disaster-bearing bodies, urban emergency management level analysis and social impact correction analysis. The classification of high, medium and low risks in the evaluation results helps managers to focus on protecting medium and high risk pipelines and avoid wasting public safety resources.

[0269] Figure 8 An example of a physical structure diagram of an electronic device is shown in FIG. Figure 8 As shown, the electronic device may include: a processor 801, a communications interface 802, a memory 803 and a communication bus 804, wherein the processor 801, the communications interface 802 and the memory 803 communicate with each other via the communication bus 804. The processor 801 may call the logic instructions in the memory 803 to execute the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the above-mentioned method embodiments.

[0270] In addition, the logic instructions in the above-mentioned memory 803 can be implemented in the form of software functional units and can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium when sold or used as an independent product. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: various media that can store program codes, such as a USB flash drive, a mobile hard disk, a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk.

[0271] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a computer program product, which includes a computer program stored on a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, and the computer program includes program instructions. When the program instructions are executed by a computer, the computer can execute the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the above-mentioned method embodiments.

[0272] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, is implemented to execute the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method provided by the above-mentioned method embodiments.

[0273] The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative, wherein the units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place, or they may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the scheme of this embodiment. Ordinary technicians in this field can understand and implement it without paying creative labor.

[0274] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that each implementation method can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and of course, it can also be implemented by hardware. Based on this understanding, the above technical solution is essentially or the part that contributes to the prior art can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as ROM / RAM, a disk, an optical disk, etc., including a number of instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in each embodiment or some parts of the embodiments.

[0275] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the operation risk of urban lifeline pipelines, characterized in that: include: Based on the inherent properties of each lifeline pipeline in the lifeline system, external disaster interference of the lifeline system and the coupling relationship between the pipelines in the lifeline system, the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline is analyzed; Based on the vulnerability factors related to the disaster-susceptible body, performing vulnerability analysis on the disaster-susceptible body to obtain the vulnerability of the disaster-susceptible body; Analyze the early prevention and preparation, monitoring and rescue and disposal of emergencies by the city's emergency management department to obtain the emergency management level of the city's emergency management department; Based on the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level, comprehensively calculate and analyze the results; Based on the analysis results, risk levels are divided and protective measures for lifeline pipelines are proposed; The comprehensive calculation and analysis results based on the failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level include: Based on the failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level, combined with the social impact correction coefficient, the analysis result is calculated according to the following formula, which includes: In the formula, R represents the analysis result, I i represents the inherent failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline, E i represents the failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance, C i represents the possibility of coupled failure between lifeline system pipelines resulting in the failure of the ith lifeline pipeline due to the interaction between lifeline system pipelines, V represents the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body, θ represents the social impact correction coefficient, and T represents the emergency management level of the city emergency management department.

2. The urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The analysis yields the possibility of lifeline pipeline failure, including: By analyzing the inherent properties of each of the lifeline pipelines and the operating conditions of the lifeline pipelines, an inherent failure possibility index of the lifeline pipelines is obtained; By analyzing the coupling relationship between various disaster disturbances that affect the effective operation of the lifeline system and the coupling rules between the various disaster disturbances and the lifeline system, the possibility index of failure of the lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance is obtained; By analyzing the coupling relationship between pipelines in the lifeline system, a coupling failure possibility index between pipelines in the lifeline system is obtained; The failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline is calculated based on the inherent failure possibility index of the lifeline pipeline, the external disturbance failure possibility index of the lifeline pipeline and the coupling failure possibility index between the lifeline system pipelines.

3. The urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The obtaining of the possibility of failure of the lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance specifically includes: Based on the Markov property, the primary coupling relationship between the various disaster disturbances is analyzed to obtain the coupling relationship index value between the various disaster disturbances; By analyzing the failure effects of the various disaster disturbances on different types of pipelines in the lifeline system, the coupling relationship index values ​​between the various disaster disturbances and the lifeline system are obtained; Based on the coupling relationship index values ​​between the various disaster disturbances and the coupling relationship index values ​​between the various disaster disturbances and the lifeline system, the failure probability of the external disturbance of the lifeline pipeline is calculated according to the following formula, and the following formula includes: Among them, E i represents the failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance, L q is the probability of disaster q occurring, η q is the probability that disaster q will cause the failure of the i-th lifeline pipeline, β q,j is the probability that disaster q will cause disaster j to occur, η j is the probability that disaster j will cause the i-th lifeline pipeline to fail.

4. The urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method according to claim 2 or 3 is characterized in that: The inherent failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline is obtained, specifically including: According to the type, own attributes and operating conditions of each of the lifeline pipelines, the inherent failure possibility index of each of the lifeline pipelines is determined, and based on the inherent failure possibility index of the lifeline pipeline, the inherent failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline is calculated according to the following formula, wherein the following formula includes: AND i =∑A ki In ki In the formula, I i represents the inherent failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline, A ki represents the inherent failure index of the i-th lifeline pipeline, w ki represents the weight corresponding to the inherent failure index of the i-th lifeline pipeline; and, The obtaining of coupling failure possibility between pipelines of the lifeline system includes: Determining a physical coupling failure possibility index based on the physical coupling relationship between the pipelines in the lifeline system, and determining a functional coupling failure possibility index based on the functional coupling relationship between the pipelines in the lifeline system; Based on the physical coupling failure possibility index and the functional coupling failure possibility index, the coupling failure possibility between pipelines of the lifeline system is calculated as follows: In the formula, C i represents the possibility of coupling failure between pipelines in the lifeline system, which may lead to the failure of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to the interaction between pipelines in the lifeline system. f Indicates the functional coupling failure index, C p Represents the physical coupling failure index, I r represents the inherent failure probability of the non-assessed pipeline r, E r represents the external disturbance failure possibility of the non-assessed pipeline r, ω represents the weight of the physical coupling relationship; The calculating of the failure probability of the lifeline pipeline includes: Based on the inherent failure probability of the lifeline pipeline, the failure probability of the lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance, and the coupling failure probability between the lifeline system pipelines, the failure probability of the lifeline pipeline is calculated as follows: P i =I i +E i +C i Where P i represents the failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline, I i represents the inherent failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline, E i represents the failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance, C i It represents the possibility of coupling failure between pipelines in the lifeline system resulting in the failure of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to the interaction between pipelines in the lifeline system.

5. The method for assessing the operation risk of urban lifeline pipelines according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that: The vulnerability analysis of the disaster-bearing body is performed based on the vulnerability factor related to the disaster-bearing body to obtain the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body, including: By analyzing the influence of the vulnerability factors on the failure of the disaster-bearing body, the weight coefficients corresponding to the vulnerability factors are determined, and the influence of the failure of the lifeline pipeline on each type of disaster-bearing body is analyzed to determine the weight coefficients corresponding to each type of disaster-bearing body; Based on the vulnerability factors, the weight coefficients corresponding to the vulnerability factors and the weight coefficients corresponding to the types of hazard-bearing bodies, the vulnerability of the hazard-bearing body is calculated as follows: In the formula, V represents the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body, μ i The weight coefficient corresponding to the i-th type of disaster-bearing body, γ j represents the weight coefficient corresponding to the jth vulnerability factor, S ij represents the jth vulnerability factor associated with the ith type of hazard-bearing object, and m represents the total number of vulnerability factors.

6. The urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method according to claim 5 is characterized in that: Also includes: According to the spatial position of the disaster-prone body, the distance from the disaster-prone body to the center of the disaster-prone area is determined, and based on the distance, the social impact correction coefficient is calculated according to the following formula: In the formula, θ represents the social impact correction coefficient, and d represents the distance from the disaster-prone body to the center of the disaster-occurring area; The vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body is corrected by using the social impact correction coefficient.

7. A city lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment device, characterized in that: include: A failure analysis module, for analyzing the possibility of failure of lifeline pipelines based on the inherent properties of each lifeline pipeline in the lifeline system, external disaster interference of the lifeline system and the coupling relationship between pipelines in the lifeline system; A vulnerability indicator module is used to perform vulnerability analysis on the disaster-susceptible body based on a vulnerability factor related to the disaster-susceptible body to obtain the vulnerability of the disaster-susceptible body; The emergency management module is used to analyze the early prevention and preparation, monitoring and rescue and disposal of emergencies by the city emergency management department, and obtain the emergency management level of the city emergency management department; An analysis result module, used to comprehensively calculate the analysis result based on the failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level; A protection measures module, used to classify risk levels and propose protection measures for lifeline pipelines based on the analysis results; The analysis result module is also used for: Based on the failure possibility of the lifeline pipeline, the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency management level, combined with the social impact correction coefficient, the analysis result is calculated according to the following formula, which includes: In the formula, R represents the analysis result, I i represents the inherent failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline, E i represents the failure probability of the i-th lifeline pipeline due to external disturbance, C i represents the possibility of coupled failure between lifeline system pipelines resulting in the failure of the ith lifeline pipeline due to the interaction between lifeline system pipelines, V represents the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body, θ represents the social impact correction coefficient, and T represents the emergency management level of the city emergency management department.

8. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the program, the steps of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

9. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the urban lifeline pipeline operation risk assessment method as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

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