A method for evaluating system operation risk in power market environment

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method for evaluating system operation risk in an electric power market environment, comprising the following steps: 1) inputting electric power market declaration data and electric power system operation parameters; 2) calculating electric power system operation risk evaluation indicators using electric power market declaration data and electric power system operation parameters; 3) calculating electric power system comprehensive operation risk indicators based on the obtained indicators, and evaluating the electric power system operation risk situation. The present invention comprehensively considers four different dimensions: energy declaration supply and demand level indicators, standby declaration supply and demand level indicators, frequency modulation declaration supply and demand level indicators, and blocked line quantity indicators. By reasonably selecting the weights of the above indicators according to demand, effective quantification of electric power system operation risks can be achieved. The present invention can effectively evaluate the operation risks of the electric power system, ensure the safe and stable operation of the electric power system, improve the efficiency of market operation, and avoid the occurrence of dispatching means intervening in market behavior.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of power market operation and optimization technology, and in particular to the assessment of power system operation risks in a power market environment. Background Art

[0002] At present, the reform of the power market is in full swing, and the good operation of the power system and the stable and efficient operation of the power market are mutually reinforcing. Timely identification and monitoring of power system operation risks are conducive to ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power system and promoting transactions in the power market. The selection of power operation risk evaluation indicators should always adhere to the fundamental purpose of fully reflecting the system operation status, with the goal of using market operation effects to reflect market efficiency, and at the same time reflect the general basic principle that the evaluation indicators are closely related to the evaluation objects. If the monitoring of power system operation risks is unreasonable, it will lead to the emergence of extreme operation scenarios. Sufficient redundancy in the power system is an important prerequisite for ensuring the safe operation of the power market. When there are structural risks in the power system, it will have a great impact on the normal operation of the market.

[0003] Therefore, it is urgent to propose a system operation risk assessment method in the power market environment. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the above-mentioned deficiencies in the prior art and to provide a method for evaluating system operation risks in an electric power market environment.

[0005] The technical solution adopted by the present invention to solve the above problem is: a system operation risk assessment method under the power market environment, characterized in that it includes the following steps:

[0006] 1) Input the power market declaration data, including the energy, reserve, frequency regulation and other information declared by market players in the power market in each period; input the operating parameters of the power system;

[0007] 2) Using the power market declaration data and the power system operation parameters, calculate the power system operation risk assessment indicators, including: energy declaration supply and demand level indicators, standby declaration supply and demand level indicators, frequency regulation declaration supply and demand level indicators and blocked line quantity indicators;

[0008] 3) Based on the obtained indicators, calculate the comprehensive operation risk indicators of the power system and evaluate the operation risk of the power system.

[0009] In step 1), the power market declaration data and the operating parameters of the power system are input as follows:

[0010] 101) Input the power market declaration data, including the total declared electric energy of the unit in each time period, the total reserve capacity provided by the reserve supplier in each time period, the actual output level of the unit, and the total frequency regulation capacity provided by the frequency regulation supplier in each time period;

[0011] 102) Input the operating parameters of the power system, including the total demand for electric energy at different nodes in different time periods, the total reserve demand of the system in different time periods, the maximum output level of the unit, the ramp level of the unit, and the demand for system frequency regulation services.

[0012] In step 2), the calculation of the power system operation risk assessment index is as follows:

[0013] (a) Energy reporting supply and demand level indicators f 321

[0014]

[0015] Where: P g，t D is the total declared quantity of the g-th unit on the supply side at time t; i，t is the total demand at location i at time t. When the user does not report the demand, this value is the predicted value provided by the load forecast.

[0016] (b) Alternative reporting supply and demand level indicatorsf 322

[0017] The reserve supply and demand level index is composed of three different subordinate indicators, including the reserve supply and demand balance level index, the reserve supply and demand level index within the zone, and the dispatchable limit capacity index; the details are as follows:

[0018] ① Reserve supply and demand balance level index

[0019]

[0020] Where: R i，t is the total reserve provided by the i-th reserve supplier in the system at time t, R d，t is the total reserve demand of the system in period t;

[0021] ② Reserve supply and demand level index within the zone

[0022]

[0023] Where: R i，t is the total reserve provided by the i-th reserve supplier at the z-th zone in the system at time t, is the total reserve demand in area z during period t;

[0024] ③ Dispatchable limit capacity index

[0025]

[0026] Where: P i，t are the maximum output of the unit and the actual output of the unit respectively, Ramp is the climbing performance of the unit, This formula reflects the maximum reserve that can be provided during the real-time market operation. t For spare demand;

[0027] For this purpose, the alternate reporting supply and demand level indicator f 322 The expression is:

[0028]

[0029] Where: λ represents the parameter of whether the system is partitioned. If the system has no partition, the value is 1; if the system has partition, the value is 0;

[0030] (c) Frequency modulation supply and demand level indicators 323

[0031] When the frequency regulation service application is insufficient in the power market, it will not only bring risks to the safe operation of the power system, but also lead to the risk of insufficient market competition. According to the market demand for frequency regulation services and the supply level of frequency regulation services, the supply and demand balance level of frequency regulation services is analyzed. The expression of the frequency regulation service supply and demand balance level index is:

[0032]

[0033] Where: A i The frequency regulation capacity provided for the i-th unit, A D The demand for frequency regulation services for the system;

[0034] (d) The number of blocked lines f 324

[0035] The number of blocked lines indicator is mainly to calculate the total number of lines with blocked lines in each period. The calculation method is as follows:

[0036]

[0037] In the formula, f(x) is a 0-1 function, which is 1 when x≥0 and 0 when x<0. i，t is the flow magnitude of line / section i at time t, is the capacity of line / section i.

[0038] In step 3), the comprehensive operation risk indicators of the power system are as follows:

[0039]

[0040] Where: μ1, μ2, μ3 and μ4 represent the weights of energy declared supply and demand level index, standby declared supply and demand level index, frequency modulation declared supply and demand level index and blocked line quantity index respectively.

[0041] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages and effects: the present invention comprehensively considers four different dimensions: energy declared supply and demand level index, standby declared supply and demand level index, frequency modulation declared supply and demand level index, and blocked line quantity index. By reasonably selecting the weights of the above indicators according to demand, the effective quantification of the power system operation risk can be achieved. The present invention can effectively evaluate the power system operation risk, ensure the safe and stable operation of the power system, improve the efficiency of market operation, and avoid the occurrence of dispatching means intervening in market behavior. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0042] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the method of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0043] The present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and by way of examples. The following examples are intended to explain the present invention but the present invention is not limited to the following examples.

[0044] Example

[0045] See also Figure 1 In this embodiment, a method for evaluating system operation risk in an electric power market environment includes the following steps:

[0046] 1) Input the power market declaration data, including the energy, reserve, frequency regulation and other information declared by market players in the power market in each period; input the operating parameters of the power system;

[0047] 2) Using the power market declaration data and the power system operation parameters, calculate the power system operation risk assessment indicators, including: energy declaration supply and demand level indicators, standby declaration supply and demand level indicators, frequency regulation declaration supply and demand level indicators and blocked line quantity indicators;

[0048] 3) Based on the obtained indicators, calculate the comprehensive operation risk indicators of the power system and evaluate the operation risk of the power system.

[0049] In step 1), the power market declaration data and the operating parameters of the power system are input as follows:

[0050] 101) Input the power market declaration data, including the total declared electric energy of the unit in each time period, the total reserve capacity provided by the reserve supplier in each time period, the actual output level of the unit, and the total frequency regulation capacity provided by the frequency regulation supplier in each time period;

[0051] 102) Input the operating parameters of the power system, including the total demand for electric energy at different nodes in different time periods, the total reserve demand of the system in different time periods, the maximum output level of the unit, the ramp level of the unit, and the demand for system frequency regulation services.

[0052] In step 2), the calculation of the power system operation risk assessment index is as follows:

[0053] (a) Energy reporting supply and demand level indicators f 321

[0054]

[0055] Where: P g，t D is the total declared quantity of the g-th unit on the supply side at time t; i，t is the total demand at location i at time t. When the user does not report the demand, this value is the predicted value provided by the load forecast.

[0056] (b) Alternative reporting supply and demand level indicatorsf 322

[0057] The reserve supply and demand level index is composed of three different subordinate indicators, including the reserve supply and demand balance level index, the reserve supply and demand level index within the zone, and the dispatchable limit capacity index; the details are as follows:

[0058] ① Reserve supply and demand balance level index

[0059]

[0060] Where: R i，t is the total reserve provided by the i-th reserve supplier in the system at time t, R d，t is the total reserve demand of the system in period t;

[0061] ② Reserve supply and demand level index within the zone

[0062]

[0063] Where: R i，t is the total reserve provided by the i-th reserve supplier at the z-th zone in the system at time t, is the total reserve demand in area z during period t;

[0064] ③ Dispatchable limit capacity index

[0065]

[0066] Where: P i，t are the maximum output of the unit and the actual output of the unit respectively, Ramp is the climbing performance of the unit, This formula reflects the maximum reserve that can be provided during the real-time market operation. t For spare demand;

[0067] For this purpose, the alternate reporting supply and demand level indicator f 322 The expression is:

[0068]

[0069] Where: λ represents the parameter of whether the system is partitioned. If the system has no partition, the value is 1; if the system has partition, the value is 0;

[0070] (c) Frequency modulation supply and demand level indicators 323

[0071] When the frequency regulation service application is insufficient in the power market, it will not only bring risks to the safe operation of the power system, but also lead to the risk of insufficient market competition. According to the market demand for frequency regulation services and the supply level of frequency regulation services, the supply and demand balance level of frequency regulation services is analyzed. The expression of the frequency regulation service supply and demand balance level index is:

[0072]

[0073] Where: A i The frequency regulation capacity provided for the i-th unit, A D The demand for frequency regulation services for the system;

[0074] (d) The number of blocked lines f 324

[0075] The number of blocked lines indicator is mainly to calculate the total number of lines with blocked lines in each period. The calculation method is as follows:

[0076]

[0077] In the formula, f(x) is a 0-1 function, which is 1 when x≥0 and 0 when x<0. i，t is the flow magnitude of line / section i at time t, is the capacity of line / section i.

[0078] In step 3), the comprehensive operation risk indicators of the power system are as follows:

[0079]

[0080] Where: μ1, μ2, μ3 and μ4 represent the weights of energy declared supply and demand level index, standby declared supply and demand level index, frequency modulation declared supply and demand level index and blocked line quantity index respectively.

[0081] The contents not described in detail in this specification belong to the prior art known to professional and technical personnel in this field.

[0082] Although the present invention has been disclosed as above by way of embodiments, it is not intended to limit the protection scope of the present invention. Any changes and modifications made by any technician familiar with the technology without departing from the concept and scope of the present invention should fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A system operation risk assessment method under the power market environment, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: 1) Input power market declaration data and power system operation parameters; 2) Using the power market declaration data and the power system operation parameters, calculate the power system operation risk assessment indicators, including: energy declaration supply and demand level indicators, standby declaration supply and demand level indicators, frequency regulation declaration supply and demand level indicators and blocked line quantity indicators; 3) Based on the obtained indicators, calculate the comprehensive operation risk indicators of the power system and evaluate the operation risk of the power system; In step 1), the power market declaration data and the operating parameters of the power system are input as follows: 101) Input the power market declaration data, including the total declared electric energy of the unit in each time period, the total reserve capacity provided by the reserve supplier in each time period, the actual output level of the unit, and the total frequency regulation capacity provided by the frequency regulation supplier in each time period; 102) Input the operating parameters of the power system, including the total demand for electric energy at different nodes in different time periods, the total reserve demand of the system in different time periods, the maximum output level of the unit, the ramp level of the unit, and the demand for system frequency regulation services; In step 2), the calculation of the power system operation risk assessment index is as follows: (a) Energy reporting supply and demand level indicators f 321 Where: P g，t D is the total declared quantity of the g-th unit on the supply side at time t; m，t is the total demand at location m at time t. When the user does not report the demand, this value is the predicted value provided by the load forecast. (b) Alternative reporting supply and demand level indicatorsf 322 The reserve supply and demand level index is composed of three different subordinate indicators, including the reserve supply and demand balance level index, the reserve supply and demand level index within the zone, and the dispatchable limit capacity index; the details are as follows: ① Reserve supply and demand balance level index Where: R i，t is the total reserve provided by the i-th reserve supplier in the system at time t, R d，t is the total reserve demand of the system in period t; ② Reserve supply and demand level index within the zone Where: R i，t is the total reserve provided by the i-th reserve supplier at the z-th zone in the system at time t, is the total reserve demand in area z during period t; ③ Dispatchable limit capacity index Where: are the maximum output of the unit and the actual output of the unit respectively, Ramp is the climbing performance of the unit, This formula reflects the maximum reserve that can be provided during the real-time market operation. t For spare demand; For this purpose, the alternate reporting supply and demand level indicator f 322 The expression is: Where: λ represents the parameter of whether the system is partitioned. If the system has no partition, the value is 1; if the system has partition, the value is 0; (c) Frequency modulation supply and demand level indicators 323 When the frequency regulation service application is insufficient in the power market, it will not only bring risks to the safe operation of the power system, but also lead to the risk of insufficient market competition. According to the market demand for frequency regulation services and the supply level of frequency regulation services, the supply and demand balance level of frequency regulation services is analyzed. The expression of the frequency regulation service supply and demand balance level index is: Where: A g The frequency regulation capacity provided for the g-th unit, A D The demand for frequency regulation services for the system; (d) The number of blocked lines f 324 The number of blocked lines indicator is the total number of lines with blocked lines in each period. The calculation method is as follows: In the formula, f(x) is a 0-1 function, which is 1 when x≥0 and 0 when x<0. k，t is the flow magnitude of line / section k at time t, is the capacity of line / section k; In step 3), the comprehensive operation risk indicators of the power system are as follows: Where: μ1, μ2, μ3 and μ4 represent the weights of energy declared supply and demand level index, standby declared supply and demand level index, frequency modulation declared supply and demand level index and blocked line quantity index respectively.

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