Nuclear power output adjusting method and device, terminal equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a nuclear power output adjusting method and device, terminal equipment and a storage medium. The nuclear power output adjusting method comprises the steps that the number of remaining days in the current year, the number of remaining adjusting times of nuclear power in the current year, actual wind power output on the current day and predicted wind power output on the current day are obtained; if the actual wind power output of the day and the predicted wind power output of the day are different, determining an adjustment type and judging whether a post-accident instability condition exists or not; if the instability condition after the accident does not exist, nuclear power output adjustment is carried out according to the number of remaining days in the current year, the number of remaining adjustment times of nuclear power in the current year and the adjustment type; according to the method, on the basis of a small amount of power grid system information, whether nuclear power output needs to be adjusted or not can be rapidly judged, when nuclear power output adjustment needs to be carried out, the judgment time can be saved, nuclear power output adjustment can be executed more rapidly, and then safe and stable operation of a power grid system is facilitated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of power system dispatching, and in particular to a method, a device, a terminal device and a storage medium for regulating nuclear power output. Background Art

[0002] The penetration rate of renewable energy in today's power grid continues to increase, but its output is unstable, which poses a challenge to the safe and stable operation of the system. Ideally, the output of the adjustable power source should be adjusted completely according to the change of renewable energy output, but in fact, there may be various constraints in the adjustment of various power sources, and it is impossible to achieve the ideal result, which may bring various stability problems, such as thermal stability. Especially in the case of partial faults, the output of renewable energy is too high or too low, and the stabilization system may need to be activated to maintain stability in the case of superimposed faults. At present, the main research on this type of problem is in the aspect of day-ahead planning, which gives an appropriate output plan by optimizing and solving equations that meet various constraints, but there is a lack of effective solutions for various problems caused by the mismatch between the actual output and the forecast in real-time operation.

[0003] Both wind power and nuclear power are closely related to the ocean and have favorable conditions for joint bundling and transmission. However, wind power output is highly uncertain, and nuclear power peak regulation is difficult. There are certain coordination problems in bundling and transmission of the two. Specifically, when the actual wind power output is inconsistent with the forecast, it is necessary to quickly decide whether to adjust the nuclear power output to follow the wind fluctuations. However, nuclear power is not suitable for frequent adjustment. Therefore, there is a contradiction and a suitable adjustment method needs to be proposed. The existing methods mainly focus on day-ahead planning. The proposed method requires more data and longer calculation time, which is not suitable for emergency adjustment processes where there is less information and quick judgment is required. Summary of the invention

[0004] The present invention provides a nuclear power output adjustment method, device, terminal equipment and storage medium to solve the above-mentioned technical problems, effectively improving the efficiency of judging whether the nuclear power output needs to be adjusted. When nuclear power output adjustment is required, it can save judgment time and execute nuclear power output adjustment more quickly.

[0005] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a method for adjusting nuclear power output, comprising:

[0006] Obtain the remaining days of the year, the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in the year, the actual wind power output of the day and the predicted wind power output of the day;

[0007] If there is a difference between the actual wind power output on that day and the predicted wind power output on that day, the regulation type is determined and whether there is post-accident instability;

[0008] If there is no instability after the accident, the nuclear power output will be adjusted according to the remaining days of the year, the remaining number of nuclear power adjustments and the type of adjustment.

[0009] The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0010] Compared with the existing method, more data and longer calculation time are required, and it is not suitable for emergency adjustment processes where there is less information and judgments need to be made quickly. When there is a difference between the actual wind power output on that day and the predicted wind power output on that day, the present invention determines the adjustment type and judges whether there is post-accident instability. When there is no post-accident instability, the nuclear power output is adjusted according to the remaining days of the year, the remaining number of adjustments of nuclear power in the power grid system that year, and the adjustment type. The present invention can quickly give a judgment on whether the nuclear power output should be adjusted based on a small amount of power grid system information. When nuclear power output adjustment is needed, it can save judgment time and execute nuclear power output adjustment more quickly, which is conducive to the safe and stable operation of the power grid system.

[0011] As a preferred solution, the method for adjusting nuclear power output further includes: if there is no difference between the actual wind power output on that day and the predicted wind power output on that day, the nuclear power output is not adjusted.

[0012] As a preferred scheme, the regulation type includes a serious error type and a general error type; the serious error type includes a first serious error type and a second serious error type; the first serious error type refers to the regulation type when the actual wind power output on that day is positive peak regulation and the predicted wind power output on that day is negative peak regulation; the second serious error type refers to the regulation type when the actual wind power output on that day is negative peak regulation and the predicted wind power output on that day is positive peak regulation; the general error type refers to the regulation type other than the serious error type.

[0013] As a preferred solution, the nuclear power output adjustment according to the remaining days of the year, the remaining adjustment times and adjustment types of nuclear power in the year includes:

[0014] When the adjustment type is the first serious error type, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the first probability formula; the first probability formula is specifically:

[0015]

[0016] In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the number of days remaining in the year; p3 is the probability of a preset serious error type; is the number of adjustments reserved for the second severe error type; k1 is the first adjustment coefficient;

[0017] When the adjustment type is a general error type, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the second probability formula; the second probability formula is specifically:

[0018]

[0019] In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the remaining days of the year; p2 is the preset probability of a general error type; p3 is the preset probability of a serious error type; k2 is the second adjustment coefficient, and the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient are used to adjust the probability of adjusting nuclear power output under different adjustment types.

[0020] In this preferred solution, when there is a difference between the actual wind power output on that day and the predicted wind power output on that day, and there is no instability after the accident, the nuclear power output is adjusted according to the adjustment type, wherein when the adjustment type is the first serious error type, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the first probability formula, and when the adjustment type is the general error type, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the second probability formula. Therefore, this solution can quickly decide whether to adjust nuclear power based on less information such as the deviation between the predicted and actual output of the day when the number of nuclear power adjustments is limited. When nuclear power output adjustment is required, it can save judgment time and execute nuclear power output adjustment more quickly, which is conducive to the safe and stable operation of the power grid system. In addition, this solution can also adjust the probability of adjusting nuclear power output under different adjustment types by adjusting the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient, so as to flexibly adjust nuclear power output.

[0021] As a preferred solution, a method for obtaining the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient includes:

[0022] Obtain historical data of the power grid system and benchmark annual average revenue;

[0023] According to the historical data of the power grid system, a first benefit and a second benefit are obtained; wherein the first benefit is the benefit of adjusting the nuclear power output when the adjustment type is a general error type; and the second benefit is the benefit of adjusting the nuclear power output when the adjustment type is a first serious error type;

[0024] Determine a first numerical range of the initial first adjustment coefficient according to the second income, and determine a second numerical range of the initial second adjustment coefficient according to the first income;

[0025] Within the first value range, adjusting the initial first adjustment coefficient based on the preset first step length;

[0026] After each adjustment of the initial first adjustment coefficient, the first probability formula is updated, and the initial second adjustment coefficient is iteratively adjusted within the second numerical range to obtain a first profit difference corresponding to the current initial first adjustment coefficient; after the first adjustment coefficient is adjusted within the first numerical range based on the first step length, a plurality of first profit differences are obtained;

[0027] The iterative adjustment of the initial second adjustment coefficient within the second numerical range to obtain the first return difference corresponding to the current initial first adjustment coefficient is specifically as follows: iteratively adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient within the second numerical range; after each iterative adjustment of the initial second adjustment coefficient, updating the second probability formula, and obtaining the first-year average return difference corresponding to the current initial second adjustment coefficient under the current initial first adjustment coefficient; after iteratively adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient within the second numerical range, obtaining a plurality of first-year average return differences; among the plurality of first-year average return differences, determining the largest first-year average return difference as the first return difference corresponding to the current initial first adjustment coefficient;

[0028] Determining a first adjustment coefficient within a first numerical range according to a plurality of first profit differences;

[0029] According to the first adjustment coefficient, updating the first probability formula;

[0030] After initializing the initial second adjustment coefficient, within the second numerical range, adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient based on a preset second step length, updating the second probability formula, and obtaining a second-year average return difference corresponding to the current initial second adjustment coefficient; after adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient based on the second step length, obtaining a plurality of second-year average return differences;

[0031] Determining a second adjustment coefficient within a second numerical range according to a plurality of second-year average return differences;

[0032] Among them, the first annual average profit difference and the second annual average profit difference are the profit differences between the annual average profit obtained by adjusting the nuclear power output based on the updated first probability formula and the updated second probability formula and the benchmark annual average profit.

[0033] As a preferred solution, the method for adjusting nuclear power output further includes:

[0034] Determine whether the grid structure of the power grid system has changed;

[0035] If it is determined that the grid structure has changed, the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient are re-acquired based on the changed grid structure.

[0036] Accordingly, in order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention also provides a nuclear power output adjustment device, comprising: a data acquisition module, a type judgment module and an output adjustment module;

[0037] The data acquisition module is used to obtain the remaining days of the year, the remaining adjustment times of nuclear power in the year, the actual wind power output of the day and the predicted wind power output of the day;

[0038] The type judgment module is used to determine the regulation type and judge whether there is post-accident instability if there is a difference between the actual wind power output on that day and the predicted wind power output on that day;

[0039] The output regulation module is used to regulate the nuclear power output according to the remaining days of the year, the remaining regulation times and regulation types of nuclear power in the year if there is no post-accident instability.

[0040] As a preferred solution, the output regulation module includes: a first regulation unit and a second regulation unit;

[0041] The first adjustment unit is used to adjust the nuclear power output based on a first probability formula when the adjustment type is a first serious error type; the first probability formula is specifically:

[0042]

[0043] In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the number of days remaining in the year; p3 is the probability of a preset serious error type; is the number of adjustments reserved for the second severe error type; k1 is the first adjustment coefficient;

[0044] The second adjustment unit is used to adjust the nuclear power output based on a second probability formula when the adjustment type is a general error type; the second probability formula is specifically:

[0045]

[0046] In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the remaining days of the year; p2 is the preset probability of a general error type; p3 is the preset probability of a serious error type; k2 is the second adjustment coefficient, and the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient are used to adjust the probability of adjusting nuclear power output under different adjustment types.

[0047] The present invention also provides a terminal device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the program, the steps of the method for regulating nuclear power output as described in any one of the above items are implemented.

[0048] The present invention also provides a storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for regulating nuclear power output as described in any one of the above items are implemented. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0049] Figure 1 : A flow chart of an embodiment of a method for regulating nuclear power output provided by the present invention;

[0050] Figure 2 : A schematic diagram of a process for obtaining a first adjustment coefficient and a second adjustment coefficient provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0051] Figure 3 : A schematic diagram of the profit difference and year of the scheme provided in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0052] Figure 4 : A schematic diagram of the relationship between the first adjustment coefficient and the scheme benefit difference provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0053] Figure 5 : A schematic diagram of the relationship between the second adjustment coefficient and the average revenue difference of the scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0054] Figure 6 : A schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of a nuclear power output regulating device provided by the present invention;

[0055] Figure 7 : A structural schematic diagram of an embodiment of the output regulation module provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0056] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0057] When the actual wind power output is inconsistent with the forecast, it is necessary to quickly decide whether to adjust the nuclear power output according to the wind fluctuation. However, nuclear power is not suitable for frequent adjustment. Therefore, there is a contradiction and a suitable adjustment method needs to be proposed. The existing methods mainly focus on the day-ahead plan arrangement. The proposed method requires more data and longer calculation time, which is not suitable for the emergency adjustment process where there is less information and quick judgment is required.

[0058] Embodiment 1

[0059] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a nuclear power output adjustment method, device, terminal equipment and storage medium to solve the above technical problems, effectively improving the efficiency of judging whether it is necessary to adjust the nuclear power output. When nuclear power output adjustment is required, it can save judgment time and execute nuclear power output adjustment more quickly.

[0060] Please refer to Figure 1 , is a flow chart of an embodiment of a method for adjusting nuclear power output provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1As shown, the method for adjusting nuclear power output includes steps 101 to 103, specifically:

[0061] Step 101: Obtain the remaining days of the current year, the remaining adjustment times of nuclear power in the current year, the actual wind power output on the current day, and the predicted wind power output on the current day;

[0062] Step 102: If there is a difference between the actual wind power output on the current day and the predicted wind power output on the current day, determine the adjustment type and judge whether there is a post-accident instability situation;

[0063] Step 103: If there is no post-accident instability situation, adjust the nuclear power output according to the remaining days of the current year, the remaining adjustment times of nuclear power in the current year, and the adjustment type.

[0064] In this embodiment, the post-accident instability situation refers to the situation where both wind power and nuclear power are fully loaded at the same time, exceeding the line carrying capacity and resulting in instability.

[0065] Furthermore, in the method for adjusting nuclear power output, it also includes: if there is no difference between the actual wind power output on the current day and the predicted wind power output on the current day, do not adjust the nuclear power output.

[0066] Furthermore, in the method for adjusting nuclear power output, it also includes: if there is a post-accident instability situation, adjust the nuclear power output.

[0067] Furthermore, the adjustment type includes a serious error type and a general error type; the serious error type includes a first serious error type and a second serious error type; the first serious error type refers to the adjustment type when the actual wind power output on the current day is for positive peak regulation while the predicted wind power output on the current day is for negative peak regulation; the second serious error type refers to the adjustment type when the actual wind power output on the current day is for negative peak regulation while the predicted wind power output on the current day is for positive peak regulation; the general error type refers to the adjustment type other than the serious error type.

[0068] In this embodiment, when wind power and nuclear power are bundled and sent out, the problems existing under various actual wind power outputs and predicted wind power outputs on the current day can be summarized as:

[0069] Table 1

[0070]

[0071] In this embodiment, assume that the probability of accurate prediction is p1, the probability of general error prediction (general error type) is p2, and the probability of serious error prediction (serious error type) is p3; among them, p3 < p2 < p1; p1, p2, and p3 can be obtained from historical data.

[0072] In this embodiment, the prediction is accurate, that is, there is no difference between the actual wind power output on that day and the predicted wind power output on that day, and nuclear power output adjustment is not required at this time.

[0073] In this embodiment, the general error type refers to the regulation type other than the severe error type, as shown in Table 1, that is, when the actual wind power output on that day is weak reverse peak regulation and the predicted wind power output on that day is positive peak regulation, or when the actual wind power output on that day is positive peak regulation and the predicted wind power output on that day is weak reverse peak regulation, or when the actual wind power output on that day is reverse peak regulation and the predicted wind power output on that day is weak reverse peak regulation, or when the actual wind power output on that day is weak reverse peak regulation and the predicted wind power output on that day is reverse peak regulation, then the regulation type is the general error type.

[0074] In this embodiment, considering that nuclear power is not suitable for frequent adjustment, there is a certain limit on the number of nuclear power adjustments each year. The maximum number of nuclear power adjustments that year can be set to N. When the forecast is seriously wrong and may lead to wind abandonment, as long as there are adjustments, the nuclear power output will inevitably be adjusted, that is, when the adjustment type is the second serious error type, the nuclear power output will be adjusted.

[0075] Furthermore, in step 103, the nuclear power output is adjusted according to the remaining days of the year, the remaining adjustment times and adjustment types of nuclear power in the year, including:

[0076] When the adjustment type is the first serious error type, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the first probability formula; the first probability formula is specifically:

[0077]

[0078] In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the number of days remaining in the year; p3 is the probability of a preset serious error type; is the number of adjustments reserved for the second severe error type; k1 is the first adjustment coefficient;

[0079] When the adjustment type is a general error type, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the second probability formula; the second probability formula is specifically:

[0080]

[0081] In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the remaining days of the year; p2 is the preset probability of a general error type; p3 is the preset probability of a serious error type; k2 is the second adjustment coefficient, and the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient are used to adjust the probability of adjusting nuclear power output under different adjustment types.

[0082] In this embodiment, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the first probability formula or the second probability formula, specifically: according to the first probability formula or the second probability formula, the probability of adjusting the nuclear power output is determined, and it is randomly decided whether to adjust the nuclear power output.

[0083] In this embodiment, in addition to the first probability formula and the second probability formula, the probability of adjusting nuclear power can also be determined by taking other feasible different function forms.

[0084] The present invention adjusts the nuclear power output according to the adjustment type when there is a difference between the actual wind power output on the day and the predicted wind power output on the day, and there is no instability after the accident. When the adjustment type is the first serious error type, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the first probability formula, and when the adjustment type is the general error type, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the second probability formula. The probability of adjusting the nuclear power output is calculated according to the first probability formula or the second probability formula, and the calculation is relatively simple and does not involve complex calculations. Therefore, when the number of nuclear power adjustments is limited, the scheme can quickly and accurately decide whether to adjust the nuclear power based on less information such as the deviation between the predicted and actual output on the day. When nuclear power output adjustment is required, judgment time can be saved, and nuclear power output adjustment can be performed more quickly, which is conducive to the safe and stable operation of the power grid system. In addition, the scheme can also adjust the probability of adjusting the nuclear power output under different adjustment types by adjusting the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient, so as to flexibly adjust the nuclear power output.

[0085] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a process for obtaining a first adjustment coefficient and a second adjustment coefficient provided in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0086] Furthermore, if Figure 2 As shown, the method for obtaining the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient includes:

[0087] Obtain historical data of the power grid system and benchmark annual average revenue;

[0088] According to the historical data of the power grid system, a first benefit and a second benefit are obtained; wherein the first benefit is the benefit of adjusting the nuclear power output when the adjustment type is a general error type; and the second benefit is the benefit of adjusting the nuclear power output when the adjustment type is a first serious error type;

[0089] Determine a first numerical range of the initial first adjustment coefficient according to the second income, and determine a second numerical range of the initial second adjustment coefficient according to the first income;

[0090] Within the first value range, adjusting the initial first adjustment coefficient based on the preset first step length;

[0091] After each adjustment of the initial first adjustment coefficient, the first probability formula is updated, and the initial second adjustment coefficient is iteratively adjusted within the second numerical range to obtain a first profit difference corresponding to the current initial first adjustment coefficient; after the first adjustment coefficient is adjusted within the first numerical range based on the first step length, a plurality of first profit differences are obtained;

[0092] The iterative adjustment of the initial second adjustment coefficient within the second numerical range to obtain the first return difference corresponding to the current initial first adjustment coefficient is specifically as follows: iteratively adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient within the second numerical range; after each iterative adjustment of the initial second adjustment coefficient, updating the second probability formula, and obtaining the first-year average return difference corresponding to the current initial second adjustment coefficient under the current initial first adjustment coefficient; after iteratively adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient within the second numerical range, obtaining a plurality of first-year average return differences; among the plurality of first-year average return differences, determining the largest first-year average return difference as the first return difference corresponding to the current initial first adjustment coefficient;

[0093] Determining a first adjustment coefficient within a first numerical range according to a plurality of first profit differences;

[0094] According to the first adjustment coefficient, updating the first probability formula;

[0095] After initializing the initial second adjustment coefficient, within the second numerical range, adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient based on a preset second step length, updating the second probability formula, and obtaining a second-year average return difference corresponding to the current initial second adjustment coefficient; after adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient based on the second step length, obtaining a plurality of second-year average return differences;

[0096] Determining a second adjustment coefficient within a second numerical range according to a plurality of second-year average return differences;

[0097] Among them, the first annual average profit difference and the second annual average profit difference are the profit differences between the annual average profit obtained by adjusting the nuclear power output based on the updated first probability formula and the updated second probability formula and the benchmark annual average profit.

[0098] In this embodiment, the preset second step length adjustment is △1, and the preset second step length adjustment is △3.

[0099] In this embodiment, in the case of general error prediction, the problem can be solved by adjusting the nuclear power output or by adding other units. For example, adjusting the nuclear power output can provide a benefit of b1, i.e., the first benefit, because the unit power cost of nuclear power is relatively low. In the case of predicted reverse peak regulation and actual positive peak regulation, the power shortage of the power grid is obvious. If the nuclear power is not adjusted, more emergency power supplies will be required. In this case, the benefit of adjusting the nuclear power output is b2, i.e., the second benefit. In the case of predicted positive peak regulation and actual reverse peak regulation, the bundled transmission line will be overloaded. At this time, it is necessary to reduce nuclear power or abandon wind power to ensure the stability of the power grid. If the nuclear power output is adjusted, the benefit is b3. Among them, b3>b2>b1.

[0100] In this embodiment, two solutions for adjusting nuclear power output for the first serious error type and the general error type are provided, which are Solution 1 and Solution 2.

[0101] Among them, Plan 1 is to randomly decide whether to adjust the nuclear power output based on the ratio of the remaining available times to the remaining days of the year, taking into account the probability of accidents, in addition to leaving out the number of nuclear power output adjustments due to serious forecast errors.

[0102] In the first scenario, the probability of adjusting nuclear power output under the first severe error type and the general error type is:

[0103]

[0104] Among them, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year, d l The remaining days of the year; The number of adjustments reserved for severe forecast errors that require wind curtailment (the second most severe error type); The probability of nuclear power occurrence may need to be adjusted (except for the reserved part).

[0105] Solution 2 considers the first serious error type and general error type separately.

[0106] Under Scheme 2, the probability of adjusting nuclear power when a serious error is predicted and additional power is required (the first serious error type) is:

[0107]

[0108] Predict the probability of regulating nuclear power under general error conditions (general error types):

[0109]

[0110] In this embodiment, the scheme for adjusting nuclear power output based on the probability formula with the adjustment coefficient introduced in this embodiment is set as scheme three; scheme three takes into account the different consequences of failures in different situations and adds coefficient adjustment.

[0111] Under the third scheme, when the regulation type is the first serious error type, the nuclear power output is regulated based on the first probability formula; the first probability formula is specifically:

[0112]

[0113] In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the number of days remaining in the year; p3 is the probability of a preset serious error type; is the number of adjustments reserved for the second severe error type; k1 is the first adjustment coefficient;

[0114] When the adjustment type is a general error type, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the second probability formula; the second probability formula is specifically:

[0115]

[0116] In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the remaining days of the year; p2 is the preset probability of a general error type; p3 is the preset probability of a serious error type; k2 is the second adjustment coefficient, and the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient are used to adjust the probability of adjusting nuclear power output under different adjustment types.

[0117] Among them, the role of the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient is to adjust the probability of adjusting nuclear power output under different types of faults. When the adjustment coefficient is small, the adjustment probability increases, otherwise the adjustment probability decreases. In particular, when the adjustment coefficient is 0, it means that as long as this type of fault (adjustment type) occurs, the nuclear power output will be adjusted. The design idea of ​​the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient is: when the remaining number of adjustments of nuclear power this year is large, the profit can be increased by increasing the probability of adjusting nuclear power power when general error types occur; and when the remaining number of adjustments of nuclear power this year is small, the adjustment probability is reduced to prevent the inability to adjust nuclear power power when serious errors occur in the forecast.

[0118] The above three options comprehensively consider the remaining number of nuclear power regulation in the year and the regulation income to decide whether to adjust the nuclear power output.

[0119] The following examples compare the above three solutions to illustrate the effectiveness of the present invention and how to obtain the two adjustment coefficients.

[0120] The actual data of the power grid system is obtained, and based on the actual data of the power grid system, (p1, p2, p3) = (0.6, 0.3, 0.1), (b1, b2, b3) = (500000, 2000000, 5000000); the maximum adjustment number N of nuclear power in that year is 50.

[0121] By randomly generating data for several years, the average annual returns of various plans are tested to determine the pros and cons of the plans.

[0122] First, compare Option 1 and Option 2.

[0123] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the profit difference and year of the scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 3 The profit difference of the middle plan is the extra profit of plan 1 compared with plan 2.

[0124] like Figure 3 As shown, the simulation results for each year are all negative, indicating that the effect of Scheme 1 is not as good as that of Scheme 2. Therefore, Scheme 2 has an advantage over Scheme 1.

[0125] Second, compare Scheme 2 and Scheme 3, where there are two adjustment coefficients that need to be determined. One implementation method for determining the two adjustment coefficients is: based on the revenue situation, preliminarily analyze and determine the range of k1 and k2; traverse k1 and k2 with a larger step size, and calculate the difference in revenue between the new scheme and the benchmark scheme under different adjustment coefficients; reduce the traversal step size, recalculate, and determine the values ​​of k1 and k2; the benchmark scheme is Scheme 2, and the revenue obtained by applying Scheme 2 is the benchmark annual average revenue; k1 involves the adjustment probability when the prediction is seriously wrong, which is more important than k2, so the preferred solution is to determine k1 first.

[0126] Because b2 is large, k1 should be small. In order to fully demonstrate the characteristics, k1 is taken between 0 and 5 according to b2, where k1 is 0, which means that nuclear power output must be adjusted in this case.

[0127] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the relationship between the first adjustment coefficient and the scheme benefit difference provided in an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 4 The average profit difference of the scheme in is the profit difference between the new scheme and the benchmark scheme under different adjustment coefficients.

[0128] For k1, we first use a larger step size to filter out the approximate range of the coefficient (where k2 is mainly determined by b1, and k2 is traversed between 0 and 10 according to b1, and the maximum annual average return difference under the same k1 value is plotted to obtain Figure 4 ).Depend on Figure 4 It can be seen that the benefit effect is better when k1 is between 0 and 1.5. According to the specific results, the traversal step length is further reduced and recalculated. In this example, k1 is taken as 0.5.

[0129] On the basis of determining k1, we continue to find the difference in the benefits of the schemes under different k2 values. The results are shown in Figure 5 .

[0130] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of the relationship between the second adjustment coefficient and the average revenue difference of the scheme provided in an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 5 The difference in the scheme benefits is the difference in benefits between the new scheme and the benchmark scheme under different k2 when k1 is determined.

[0131] Depend on Figure 5 As shown, in this example, k2 can be taken as 2.6.

[0132] According to this Figure 4 and Figure 5 It can be seen that Scheme 3 has a relative benefit advantage over Scheme 2, which proves the effectiveness of the present invention in adopting Scheme 3 to adjust nuclear power output.

[0133] In this embodiment, since the actual b1 is often significantly smaller than b2 and b3, k2 should not be too small, otherwise excessive adjustment of nuclear power output when the forecast error is small will occupy the possible adjustment opportunities when the forecast gap is large. On the other hand, k2 should not be too large, otherwise it may lead to a waste of nuclear power adjustments in the current year. Figure 5 It can be seen that the best effect is achieved when k2 is in the middle.

[0134] In this embodiment, in addition to the profit difference between the solutions, the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient may also be determined based on other statistical quantities, such as the median of the profit difference.

[0135] Furthermore, the method for adjusting nuclear power output further includes:

[0136] Determine whether the grid structure of the power grid system has changed;

[0137] If it is determined that the grid structure has changed, the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient are re-acquired based on the changed grid structure.

[0138] In this embodiment, when the grid structure of the power grid system remains unchanged, the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient remain unchanged; if the system grid structure changes, the benefits under different types of prediction errors may change, and the adaptability of the adjustment coefficient needs to be reconfirmed.

[0139] In this embodiment, if it is determined that the grid structure has not changed, it is determined whether the current day is the last day of the year. If so, the remaining adjustment times of the nuclear power are reset.

[0140] Accordingly, in order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention also provides a nuclear power output adjustment device, please refer to Figure 6 , which is a structural schematic diagram of an embodiment of a nuclear power output regulating device provided by the present invention.

[0141] like Figure 6 As shown, the nuclear power output regulating device 20 includes: a data acquisition module 201, a type judgment module 202 and an output regulating module 203;

[0142] The data acquisition module 201 is used to obtain the remaining days of the year, the remaining adjustment times of nuclear power in the year, the actual wind power output of the day and the predicted wind power output of the day;

[0143] The type determination module 202 is used to determine the regulation type and determine whether there is post-accident instability if there is a difference between the actual wind power output on that day and the predicted wind power output on that day;

[0144] The output regulation module 203 is used to regulate the nuclear power output according to the remaining days of the year, the remaining regulation times and regulation types of nuclear power in the year if there is no post-accident instability.

[0145] Figure 7 A schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of an output regulation module provided by the present invention.

[0146] Furthermore, if Figure 7 As shown, the output adjustment module 203 includes: a first adjustment unit 2031 and a second adjustment unit 2032;

[0147] The first adjustment unit 2031 is used to adjust the nuclear power output based on a first probability formula when the adjustment type is a first serious error type; the first probability formula is specifically:

[0148]

[0149] In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the number of days remaining in the year; p3 is the probability of a preset serious error type; is the number of adjustments reserved for the second severe error type; k1 is the first adjustment coefficient;

[0150] The second adjustment unit 2032 is used to adjust the nuclear power output based on a second probability formula when the adjustment type is a general error type; the second probability formula is specifically:

[0151]

[0152] In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the remaining days of the year; p2 is the preset probability of a general error type; p3 is the preset probability of a serious error type; k2 is the second adjustment coefficient, and the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient are used to adjust the probability of adjusting nuclear power output under different adjustment types.

[0153] The present invention also provides a terminal device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the program, the steps of the method for regulating nuclear power output as described in any one of the above items are implemented.

[0154] The present invention also provides a storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for regulating nuclear power output as described in any one of the above items are implemented.

[0155] Compared with the prior art, the embodiments of the present invention have the following beneficial effects:

[0156] Nuclear power peak regulation itself requires time, but it is actually known late that the wind power output is different from the expected one, and the calculation time is tight. Compared with the existing methods, which are mainly oriented to the day-ahead plan arrangement, the calculation process for emergency regulation needs to collect a large amount of data and requires a long calculation time. It has high requirements for network communication and may not be feasible in the event of a fault. It is not suitable for the emergency regulation process where there is less information and a quick judgment needs to be made. When there is a difference between the actual wind power output on that day and the predicted wind power output on that day, the present invention determines the regulation type and determines whether there is post-accident instability. When there is no post-accident instability, according to the remaining days of the year, the remaining number of adjustments of nuclear power in the power grid system in that year, and the type of adjustment, a simple calculation using the first probability formula and the second probability formula can be performed to determine whether to adjust the nuclear power output according to the result, so that the present invention can simply, quickly and accurately give a judgment on whether the nuclear power output should be adjusted based on a small amount of power grid system information. When the nuclear power output adjustment is required, the judgment time can be saved and the nuclear power output adjustment can be performed faster. Therefore, the present invention has the advantages of less demand information, low communication requirements, and fast command export, and the application of the present invention is conducive to the safe and stable operation of the power grid system. In actual production, it can provide a reference for the final decision on the same type of problems.

[0157] The present invention further describes the purpose, technical scheme and beneficial effects of the present invention in detail based on the specific embodiments described above. It should be understood that the above description is only a specific embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the protection scope of the present invention. It is particularly pointed out that for those skilled in the art, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for regulating nuclear power output, characterized in that: include: Obtain the remaining days of the year, the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in the year, the actual wind power output of the day and the predicted wind power output of the day; If there is a difference between the actual wind power output on that day and the predicted wind power output on that day, the regulation type is determined and whether there is post-accident instability; If there is no instability after the accident, the nuclear power output will be adjusted according to the remaining days of the year, the remaining number of nuclear power adjustments and the type of adjustment.

2. A method for regulating nuclear power output as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: Also includes: If there is no difference between the actual wind power output on that day and the predicted wind power output on that day, the nuclear power output will not be adjusted.

3. A method for regulating nuclear power output as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The regulation types include severe error types and general error types; the severe error types include a first severe error type and a second severe error type; the first severe error type refers to the regulation type when the actual wind power output on that day is positive peak regulation and the predicted wind power output on that day is negative peak regulation; the second severe error type refers to the regulation type when the actual wind power output on that day is negative peak regulation and the predicted wind power output on that day is positive peak regulation; the general error type refers to the regulation type other than the severe error type.

4. A method for regulating nuclear power output as claimed in claim 3, characterized in that: The nuclear power output adjustment according to the remaining days of the year, the remaining adjustment times and adjustment types of nuclear power in the year includes: When the adjustment type is the first serious error type, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the first probability formula; the first probability formula is specifically: In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the number of days remaining in the year; p3 is the probability of a preset serious error type; p3d l is the number of adjustments reserved for the second severe error type; k1 is the first adjustment coefficient; When the adjustment type is a general error type, the nuclear power output is adjusted based on the second probability formula; the second probability formula is specifically: In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the remaining days of the year; p2 is the preset probability of a general error type; p3 is the preset probability of a serious error type; k2 is the second adjustment coefficient, and the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient are used to adjust the probability of adjusting nuclear power output under different adjustment types.

5. A method for regulating nuclear power output as claimed in claim 4, characterized in that: The method for obtaining the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient includes: Obtain historical data of the power grid system and benchmark annual average revenue; According to the historical data of the power grid system, a first benefit and a second benefit are obtained; wherein the first benefit is the benefit of adjusting the nuclear power output when the adjustment type is a general error type; and the second benefit is the benefit of adjusting the nuclear power output when the adjustment type is a first serious error type; Determine a first numerical range of the initial first adjustment coefficient according to the second income, and determine a second numerical range of the initial second adjustment coefficient according to the first income; Within the first value range, adjusting the initial first adjustment coefficient based on the preset first step length; After each adjustment of the initial first adjustment coefficient, the first probability formula is updated, and the initial second adjustment coefficient is iteratively adjusted within the second numerical range to obtain a first profit difference corresponding to the current initial first adjustment coefficient; after the first adjustment coefficient is adjusted within the first numerical range based on the first step length, a plurality of first profit differences are obtained; The iterative adjustment of the initial second adjustment coefficient within the second numerical range to obtain the first return difference corresponding to the current initial first adjustment coefficient is specifically as follows: iteratively adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient within the second numerical range; after each iterative adjustment of the initial second adjustment coefficient, updating the second probability formula, and obtaining the first-year average return difference corresponding to the current initial second adjustment coefficient under the current initial first adjustment coefficient; after iteratively adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient within the second numerical range, obtaining a plurality of first-year average return differences; among the plurality of first-year average return differences, determining the largest first-year average return difference as the first return difference corresponding to the current initial first adjustment coefficient; Determining a first adjustment coefficient within a first numerical range according to a plurality of first profit differences; According to the first adjustment coefficient, updating the first probability formula; After initializing the initial second adjustment coefficient, within the second numerical range, adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient based on a preset second step length, updating the second probability formula, and obtaining a second-year average return difference corresponding to the current initial second adjustment coefficient; after adjusting the initial second adjustment coefficient based on the second step length, obtaining a plurality of second-year average return differences; Determining a second adjustment coefficient within a second numerical range according to a plurality of second-year average return differences; Among them, the first annual average profit difference and the second annual average profit difference are the profit differences between the annual average profit obtained by adjusting the nuclear power output based on the updated first probability formula and the updated second probability formula and the benchmark annual average profit.

6. A method for regulating nuclear power output as claimed in claim 5, characterized in that: Also includes: Determine whether the grid structure of the power grid system has changed; If it is determined that the grid structure has changed, the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient are re-acquired based on the changed grid structure.

7. A nuclear power output regulating device, characterized in that: include: Data acquisition module, type judgment module and output regulation module; The data acquisition module is used to obtain the remaining days of the year, the remaining adjustment times of nuclear power in the year, the actual wind power output of the day and the predicted wind power output of the day; The type judgment module is used to determine the regulation type and judge whether there is post-accident instability if there is a difference between the actual wind power output on that day and the predicted wind power output on that day; The output regulation module is used to regulate the nuclear power output according to the remaining days of the year, the remaining regulation times and regulation types of nuclear power in the year if there is no post-accident instability.

8. A nuclear power output regulating device as claimed in claim 7, characterized in that: The output regulation module includes: a first regulation unit and a second regulation unit; The first adjustment unit is used to adjust the nuclear power output based on a first probability formula when the adjustment type is a first serious error type; the first probability formula is specifically: In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the number of days remaining in the year; p3 is the probability of a preset serious error type; p3d l is the number of adjustments reserved for the second severe error type; k1 is the first adjustment coefficient; The second adjustment unit is used to adjust the nuclear power output based on a second probability formula when the adjustment type is a general error type; the second probability formula is specifically: In the above formula, n is the remaining regulation times of nuclear power in that year; d l is the remaining days of the year; p2 is the preset probability of a general error type; p3 is the preset probability of a serious error type; k2 is the second adjustment coefficient, and the first adjustment coefficient and the second adjustment coefficient are used to adjust the probability of adjusting nuclear power output under different adjustment types.

9. A terminal device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the program, the steps of the nuclear power output regulation method as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

10. A storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for regulating nuclear power output as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

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