Phase change heat storage water tank load heat storage method based on three-exponential smoothing method

Abstract

The invention discloses a phase change heat storage water tank load heat storage method based on a three-exponential smoothing method. The method comprises the following steps that the average water temperature of a water tank, the preset control water temperature of the water tank and the average water temperature of a phase change material are obtained; based on the average water temperature of the water tank, the preset control water temperature and the average water temperature of the phase change material, the heat load of water tank heat supply is calculated; the total heat load needed by the workshop indoor temperature rising to the target temperature is obtained; and based on the heat load and the total heat load of heat supply of the water tank, the heat supply power of the heat production equipment is calculated. By utilizing the physical characteristics of the phase-change material and changing the water tank and the phase-change material, energy is stored in low ebb and released in peak period, and the effects of reducing cost, saving energy and reducing emission are achieved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of water tank energy storage, and more specifically, to a phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on a triple exponential smoothing method. Background Art

[0002] In the process of cigarette production, the energy consumption of the heating system based on fossil fuels accounts for a large proportion, while the clean energy based on solar energy and air energy accounts for an insufficient proportion, and a large amount of low-grade waste heat is directly discharged into the environment without being utilized. With the growth of renewable energy power generation, factory technical transformation focuses on the development of heat pump heating to meet the needs of factory process air conditioning and hot water. In the heat pump heating system, the hot water tank plays the role of energy storage, buffering, improving efficiency and adapting to different heat sources. The current manufacturing industry is facing the background of widening price differences between peak and valley electricity in the power grid, and the requirements for the utilization of various waste heat in factories. How to use phase change materials with higher energy storage density to build an efficient and economical phase change water storage tank control system has become a technical issue that needs to be solved in the process of cigarette factories' transformation to green and low-carbon.

[0003] At present, the workshop process air conditioning heating and hot water supply are mainly generated by the consumption of steam by the plate-type steam-water heat exchanger. In view of the fact that the proportion of single fossil fuel as energy is too high, the factory's technical transformation adopts heat pumps with higher comprehensive efficiency to transfer the waste heat, waste water, waste gas and other low-grade energy emitted by process equipment during the production process from low-temperature waste heat sources to high-temperature heat users through waste heat recovery technology.

[0004] In order to store the heat energy generated by the heat pump, a phase change water storage tank is used to store energy. When the heat demand is high, the stored heat can be released to meet the demand. Although phase change materials have the advantages of high energy density, low heat loss, and high thermal efficiency of the system, it is still necessary to develop a more accurate and effective energy storage strategy by monitoring the state of phase change materials due to changes in working conditions. At the same time, the peak and valley periods correspond to different electricity prices and different floating ratios. The characteristics of phase change materials are used to automatically adjust the operating time and operating power of the heating equipment to achieve energy storage during the low electricity price period and release energy during the peak period.

[0005] Therefore, how to provide a phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method has become a technical problem that urgently needs to be solved in this field. Summary of the invention

[0006] One object of the present invention is to provide a new technical solution for a phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on a triple exponential smoothing method.

[0007] According to a first aspect of the present invention, there is provided a phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on a triple exponential smoothing method, wherein a phase change material is arranged inside the water tank;

[0008] The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method includes the following steps:

[0009] Get the average water temperature T of the water tank i , the preset control water temperature of the water tank T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material

[0010] Based on the average water temperature T of the water tank i , preset control water temperature T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank ;

[0011] Get the total heat load Q required to raise the indoor temperature of the workshop to the target temperature pre ;

[0012] Heat load Q based on water tank heating tank and the total heat load Q pre , calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in .

[0013] Optionally, the “based on the average water temperature T of the water tank i , preset control water temperature T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank ”, including the following steps:

[0014] Based on the average water temperature T of the water tank i , preset control water temperature T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Calculate the sensible heat Q of the water tank w :

[0015] Q w =m w ·c w ·(T i -T t );

[0016] Where cw is the specific heat capacity of water, m w is the total mass of water in the tank;

[0017] Obtain phase change material in variable temperature range to Phase change heat released Q PCM :

[0018]

[0019] Among them, C PCMis the specific heat capacity function of the phase change material as it changes with temperature, ΔH fus is the phase change heat of the phase change material (joule / kilogram, J / kg);

[0020] Based on the sensible heat Q of the water tank w and phase change heat Q PCM , calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank :

[0021] Q tank =Q w +Q PCM .

[0022] Optionally, a plurality of temperature sensors are arranged around the water tank and the phase change material, and the plurality of temperature sensors respectively detect the water temperature of the plurality of water tanks and the water temperature of the phase change material to obtain the average water temperature T of the water tank. i and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material

[0023] Optionally, the “obtaining the total heat load Q required to raise the indoor temperature of the workshop to the target temperature” pre ”, including the following steps:

[0024] Get the heat demand Q at time node t t , and the load forecast value F at the preset time node t t , seasonal factor S t , and the load forecast value F at time node t+1 t+1 ;

[0025] Heat demand Q based on time node t t , and the load forecast value F at the preset time node t , seasonal factor S t , and the load forecast value F at time node t+1 t+1 , calculate the total heat load Q pre .

[0026] Optionally, the “obtaining the heat demand Q at time node t” t ”, including the following steps:

[0027] Get the average outdoor temperature T of the production workshop at time node t out , Average indoor temperature of the production workshop T in , indoor target temperature T0;

[0028] Based on the obtained outdoor average temperature T of the production workshop out , Average indoor temperature of the production workshop T in , indoor target temperature T0, calculate the heat demand Q at time node t t :

[0029] Q t = k·(T0-T in )+m·T out ;

[0030] Where k is the proportionality constant, m·T out is the error term.

[0031] Optionally, the “obtaining the load forecast value F at a preset time node t” t , seasonal factor S t ”, including the following steps:

[0032] Based on the triple exponential smoothing method, the load forecast value F at time point t is calculated. t :

[0033] Ft=α·Yt+(1-α)·(Ft-1+β·(Ft-1-Ft-2));

[0034] Among them, F t is the predicted value at time point t, Y t is the actual observed value at time point t, i.e., the heat demand load at that time point, α is the smoothing coefficient with an initial value of 0.3, and F t-1 is the predicted value at time point t-1, F t-2 is the predicted value at time point t-2, and β is the secondary smoothing coefficient;

[0035] Calculate the seasonal factor S t :

[0036] S t =λ·(F t -F t-1 )+(1-λ)·S t-1 ;

[0037] Among them, S t is the seasonal factor at time point t, γ is the seasonal smoothing coefficient, the initial value is 0.05, S t-1 is the seasonal factor at time point t-1.

[0038] Optionally, the “obtaining the load forecast value F at time node t+1” t+1 ”, including the following steps:

[0039] Get the load forecast value Ft+1 at time node t+1:

[0040] F t+1 =F t +β·(F t -F t-1 )+λ·(F t -Ft-1 -S t ).

[0041] Optionally, the “heat demand Q based on time node t” t , and the load forecast value F at the preset time node t , seasonal factor S t , and the load forecast value F at time node t+1 t+1 , calculate the total heat load Q pre ", total heat load Q pre for:

[0042]

[0043] Optionally, the "heat load Q based on water tank heating" tank and the total heat load Q pre , calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in ”, including the following steps:

[0044] Heat load Q based on water tank heating tank and the total heat load Q pre , calculate the preset heat generation Q of the heat generating equipment during the valley period in :

[0045] Q in =Q pre -Q tank ;

[0046] Get the total duration T between the current time and the end time of the valley power off ;

[0047] Based on the preset heat generation Q of the heat generating equipment during the off-peak period in , calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment during the off-peak period in :

[0048]

[0049] Among them, ε sys is the self-heating power.

[0050] Optionally, after obtaining the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in After that, the following steps are also included:

[0051] Adjust the heating power of heat-generating equipment;

[0052] After the preset time Δ t After that, the average water temperature T of the water tank is obtained again i , the preset control water temperature of the water tank T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Get the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank and the total heat load Q pre , and recalculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in .

[0053] The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0054] The present invention first obtains the average water temperature T of the water tank i , the preset control water temperature of the water tank T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material And according to the average water temperature T of the water tank i , preset control water temperature T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank ; Then obtain the total heat load required to raise the indoor temperature of the workshop to the target temperature, and calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating. tank and the total heat load Q pre , calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in , can accurately obtain the heating power P of the heat generating equipment according to the actual temperature of the water tank and the external environment in , and utilize the physical properties of phase change materials. Through the changes in water tanks and phase change materials, energy can be stored during low periods and released during peak periods, thereby reducing costs, saving energy and reducing emissions.

[0055] Further features and advantages of the present invention will become apparent from the following detailed description of exemplary embodiments of the present invention with reference to the attached drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0056] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of the specification, illustrate embodiments of the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention.

[0057] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 2 A flow chart of obtaining the heat load of the water tank for heating of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 3 A flow chart of obtaining the total heat load of the present invention;

[0060] Figure 4 A flow chart of obtaining the heating power of a heat generating device during valley power period according to the present invention;

[0061] Figure 5 It is a detailed flow chart of the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0062] Various exemplary embodiments of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be noted that the relative arrangement of components and steps, numerical expressions and numerical values ​​set forth in these embodiments do not limit the scope of the present invention unless otherwise specifically stated.

[0063] The following description of at least one exemplary embodiment is merely illustrative in nature and is in no way intended to limit the invention, its application, or uses.

[0064] Technologies, methods, and equipment known to ordinary technicians in the relevant art may not be discussed in detail, but where appropriate, the technologies, methods, and equipment should be considered as part of the specification.

[0065] In all examples shown and discussed herein, any specific values ​​should be interpreted as merely exemplary and not limiting. Therefore, other examples of the exemplary embodiments may have different values.

[0066] like Figures 1 to 5 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention provides a phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on a triple exponential smoothing method, wherein a phase change material is arranged inside the water tank.

[0067] The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method includes the following steps:

[0068] Step S1: Get the average water temperature T of the water tank i , the preset control water temperature of the water tank T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material

[0069] Step S2: Based on the average water temperature T of the water tank i , preset control water temperature T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank ;

[0070] Step S3: Obtain the total heat load Q required to raise the indoor temperature of the workshop to the target temperature pre ;

[0071] Step S4: heat load Q based on water tank heating tank and the total heat load Q pre , calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in .

[0072] The present invention first obtains the average water temperature T of the water tank i , the preset control water temperature of the water tank T tand the average water temperature of the phase-changing material And according to the average water temperature T of the water tank i , preset control water temperature T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank ; Then obtain the total heat load required to raise the indoor temperature of the workshop to the target temperature, and calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating. tank and the total heat load Q pre , calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in , can accurately obtain the heating power P of the heat generating equipment according to the actual temperature of the water tank and the external environment in , and utilize the physical properties of phase change materials. Through the changes in water tanks and phase change materials, energy can be stored during low periods and released during peak periods, thereby reducing costs, saving energy and reducing emissions.

[0073] It should be noted that, due to the temperature difference during the day, the heating power P of the corresponding heat generating equipment is controlled at different temperature stages. in , which can effectively reduce energy loss.

[0074] In one embodiment of the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method of the present invention, as Figure 2 As shown, the "in step S2, based on the average water temperature T i , preset control water temperature T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank ”, including the following steps:

[0075] Step S21: Based on the average water temperature T of the water tank i , preset control water temperature T t and the average water temperature T of the phase-changing material PCMi , calculate the sensible heat Q of the water tank w :

[0076] Q w =m w ·c w ·(T i -T t );

[0077] Among them, c w is the specific heat capacity of water, m w is the total mass of water in the tank;

[0078] Specifically, the sensible heat of the water tank Q wIt means that when this heat is added to or removed from the water in the tank, it will cause the temperature of the substance to change without a phase change.

[0079] Step S22: Obtain the phase change material in the temperature range to Phase change heat released Q PCM :

[0080]

[0081] Among them, C PCM is the specific heat capacity function of the phase change material as it changes with temperature, ΔH fus is the phase change heat of the phase change material (joule / kilogram, J / kg);

[0082] Specifically, the phase change heat Q released by the phase change material PCM It refers to the heat absorbed or released when a phase change material changes from one phase to another under isothermal and isobaric conditions.

[0083] The temperature of the phase change material changes from Rise or fall to temperature When the solid-liquid phase transition occurs.

[0084] Phase change heat Q released by phase change material PCM The calculation needs to be integrated based on the phase change temperature-specific heat capacity curve of the phase change material. In the phase change temperature range of phase change materials to That is, the phase change material is in the solid-liquid phase change process, which can provide phase change heat.

[0085] Step S23: Based on the sensible heat Q of the water tank w and phase change heat Q PCM , calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank :

[0086] Q tank =Q w +Q PCM .

[0087] In one embodiment of the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method of the present invention, a plurality of temperature sensors are arranged around the water tank and the phase change material, and the plurality of temperature sensors respectively detect the water temperature of the plurality of water tanks and the water temperature of the phase change material to obtain the average water temperature T of the water tank. i and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material

[0088] The present invention arranges a plurality of temperature sensors around the water tank and the phase change material, and makes the plurality of temperature sensors detect the water temperature of the plurality of water tanks and the water temperature of the phase change material respectively, so as to obtain the average water temperature T of the water tank. i and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material This can ensure the real-time and accuracy of the data.

[0089] In one embodiment of the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method of the present invention, as Figure 3 As shown, the "In step S3, the total heat load Q required to raise the indoor temperature of the workshop to the target temperature is obtained pre ”, including the following steps:

[0090] Step S31: Obtain the heat demand Q at time node t t , and the load forecast value F at the preset time node t t , seasonal factor S t , and the load forecast value F at time node t+1 t+1 ;

[0091] Step S32: heat demand Q based on time node t t , and the load forecast value F at the preset time node t , seasonal factor S t , and the load forecast value F at time node t+1 t+1 , calculate the total heat load Q pre .

[0092] Specifically, the time node t is a time range segment.

[0093] The present invention first obtains the heat demand Q at time node t t , and the load forecast value F at the preset time node t t , seasonal factor S t , and the load forecast value F at time node t+1 t+1 , then, according to the heat demand Q at time node t t , and the load forecast value F at the preset time node t , seasonal factor S t , and the load forecast value F at time node t+1 t+1 , calculate the total heat load Q pre , and then we can get the total heat load Q required at time node t pre .

[0094] In one embodiment of the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method of the present invention, the "obtaining the heat demand Q at time node t" t”, including the following steps:

[0095] Step S33: Obtain the outdoor average temperature T of the production workshop at time node t out , Average indoor temperature of the production workshop T in , indoor target temperature T0;

[0096] Step S34: Based on the obtained outdoor average temperature T of the production workshop out , Average indoor temperature of the production workshop T in , indoor target temperature T0, calculate the heat demand Q at time node t t :

[0097] Q t = k·(T0-T in )+m·T out ;

[0098] Where k is the proportionality constant, m·T out is the error term.

[0099] Specifically, the outdoor temperature of the production workshop and the indoor temperature of the production workshop are collected by installing multiple temperature sensors outdoors and indoors of the production workshop to obtain the average temperature and reduce the impact of local temperature fluctuations.

[0100] The k constant reflects the effect of the indoor and outdoor temperature difference on the heat demand. m·T out It reflects the impact of outdoor temperature factors on the model. By collecting historical data, including indoor and outdoor temperatures, target temperature, actual heat demand, etc., statistical techniques such as least squares method are used to estimate the optimal value of k.

[0101] In one embodiment of the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method of the present invention, as Figure 3 As shown, the "obtaining the load forecast value F at the preset time node t" t , seasonal factor S t ”, including the following steps:

[0102] Step S35: Calculate the load forecast value F at time point t based on the three exponential smoothing method. t :

[0103] F t =α·Y t +(1-α)·(F t-1 +β·(F t-1 -F t-2 ));

[0104] Among them, F t is the predicted value at time point t, Y tis the actual observed value at time point t, i.e., the heat demand load at that time point, α is the smoothing coefficient with an initial value of 0.3, and F t-1 is the predicted value at time point t-1, F t-2 is the predicted value at time point t-2, and β is the secondary smoothing coefficient;

[0105] Specifically, in order to capture the complexity and dynamic changes of actual demand, the total heat load Q pre For forecasting, the triple exponential smoothing method is introduced.

[0106] α is used to weight the most recent observations. α is the smoothing coefficient. The initial value is 0.3, which means that the latest observations are given a higher weight in the forecast. Compare the forecast error and accuracy under different α values, and select the optimal α value. β is used to adjust the trend part of the forecast model. The initial value is 0.1, which means that the model responds slowly to trend changes. The adjustment of β value is based on the analysis of forecast effect. When the forecast result is not sensitive enough to capture trend changes, the β value can be appropriately increased; conversely, if the forecast result fluctuates too much, the β value can be reduced.

[0107] Step S36, calculate seasonal factor S t :

[0108] S t =λ·(F t -F t-1 )+(1-λ)·S t-1 ;

[0109] Among them, S t is the seasonal factor at time point t, γ is the seasonal smoothing coefficient, the initial value is 0.05, S t-1 is the seasonal factor at time point t-1.

[0110] Specifically, the seasonal factor S is added to adjust the seasonal changes. t .

[0111] γ is the seasonal smoothing coefficient, and its initial value is 0.05, indicating that the impact of seasonal factors on the forecast results is relatively stable. By comparing the forecast results under different γ values ​​with the actual seasonal changes, the γ value that best reflects the actual seasonal characteristics is selected.

[0112] In one embodiment of the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method of the present invention, the "obtaining the load forecast value F at time node t+1" t+1 ”, including the following steps:

[0113] Step S37: Obtain the load forecast value Ft+1 at time node t+1:

[0114] Ft+1 =F t +β·(F t -F t-1 )+λ·(F t -F t-1 -S t ).

[0115] In one embodiment of the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method of the present invention, the "heat demand Q based on time node t" t , and the load forecast value F at the preset time node t , seasonal factor S t , and the load forecast value F at time node t+1 t+1 , calculate the total heat load Q pre ", step S38, calculate the total heat load Q pre ,for:

[0116]

[0117] Specifically, the heating amount from the previous day's off-peak electricity is taken as the actual observation value at time t0 Calculate the predicted value at time t0 For each time point t from t0 to t before the beginning of the day 1-1 , use the triple exponential smoothing formula to iteratively calculate the predicted value F t , and update the seasonal factor S t , predict the load at time t1 Repeat this step to continuously predict the load at each time point from time t1 to time t2 after the start of production on the same day, accumulate the predicted load values, and obtain the total demand load Q pre .

[0118] In one embodiment of the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method of the present invention, as Figure 4 As shown, the "in step S4, based on the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank and the total heat load Q pre , calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in ”, including the following steps:

[0119] Step S41: Heat load Q based on water tank heating tank and the total heat load Q pre , calculate the preset heat generation Q of the heat generating equipment during the valley period in :

[0120] Q in =Q pre -Q tank ;

[0121] Step S42: Obtain the total duration T between the current time and the end time of the off-peak period off (in hours);

[0122] Step S43: based on the preset heat generation Q of the heat generation equipment during the off-peak period in , calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment during the off-peak period in :

[0123]

[0124] Among them, ε sys The self-heating power of the heating system under different ambient temperatures, water tank temperatures and phase change material states is estimated through historical data and experimental observations. This requires considering the heat loss characteristics of the heating system, including the water tank insulation performance, the thermal conductivity of the phase change material and other factors.

[0125] Specifically, the power range of the heat generating equipment should cover the demand from the lowest to the highest load.

[0126] The present invention adjusts the operating power of the heat pump of the heat generating equipment to keep the heat pump operating in the high-efficiency operating range as much as possible during the off-peak period to reduce energy consumption and costs. pre Larger heat load Q with water tank heating tank When the power demand is small, the heat pump operating power of the heat generating equipment is increased to meet the demand. As the off-peak period progresses, the heat pump operating power of the heat generating equipment is gradually reduced. The water tank temperature and the state of the phase change material are monitored in real time to ensure that the water tank is fully charged with sufficient heat energy at the end of the off-peak period to meet the heating demand during the subsequent peak period.

[0127] In one embodiment of the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method of the present invention, as Figures 1 to 5 As shown, the heating power P of the heat generating equipment is obtained. in After that, the following steps are also included:

[0128] Step S5, adjusting the heating power of the heat generating equipment;

[0129] Step S6: After a preset time Δ t After that, the average water temperature T of the water tank is obtained again i , the preset control water temperature of the water tank T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Get the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank and the total heat load Q pre , and recalculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in That is, when the heat generating equipment uses the heating power P inWorking preset time Δ t Afterwards, the heating power of the heat-generating equipment is recalculated.

[0130] At the same time, the operating status of the heat-generating equipment and the heat load of the water tank are monitored in real time during operation. The heat load information is recalculated using a rolling forecast method. At the end of each forecast cycle, the smoothing coefficient α is recalculated based on the new observation data and forecast results, and applied to the forecast of the next cycle. The heat-generating power is adjusted through feedback control to ensure the balance between supply and demand, and the heat-generating equipment is continuously optimized and corrected. The start and stop time and power of the heat-generating equipment are automatically adjusted to optimize energy efficiency.

[0131] The present invention performs the following steps every preset time Δ t Afterwards, the phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the three-exponential smoothing method of the present invention is used again to calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment. in , can adjust the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in real time according to the actual temperature in , so as to continuously optimize and correct the power of heat-generating equipment, save energy costs and improve energy efficiency.

[0132] It should be noted that the accuracy and applicability of the seasonal factor should be evaluated regularly during the heating season, and adjustments should be made accordingly based on the evaluation results: the seasonal factor can be reinitialized using the historical data of the previous heating season. During initialization, the ratio of the actual heat demand to the average value of the predicted heat demand in each time period of the previous heating season is first calculated as the initial value of the seasonal factor in that time period.

[0133] Although some specific embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail by way of example, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the above examples are for illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the above embodiments may be modified without departing from the scope and spirit of the present invention. The scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on triple exponential smoothing method, characterized in that: A phase change material is arranged inside the water tank; The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method includes the following steps: Get the average water temperature T of the water tank i , the preset control water temperature of the water tank T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Based on the average water temperature T of the water tank i , preset control water temperature T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank ; Get the total heat load Q required to raise the indoor temperature of the workshop to the target temperature pre ; Heat load Q based on water tank heating tank and the total heat load Q pre , calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in .

2. The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The "based on the average water temperature T of the water tank i , preset control water temperature T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank ”, including the following steps: Based on the average water temperature T of the water tank i , preset control water temperature T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Calculate the sensible heat Q of the water tank w : Q w =m w ·c w ·(T i -T t ); Among them, c w is the specific heat capacity of water, m w is the total mass of water in the tank; Obtain phase change material in variable temperature range to Phase change heat released Q PCM : Among them, C PCM is the specific heat capacity function of the phase change material as it changes with temperature, ΔH fus is the phase change heat of the phase change material (joule / kilogram, J / kg); Based on the sensible heat Q of the water tank w and phase change heat Q PCM , calculate the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank : Q tank =Q w +Q PCM 。 3. The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on triple exponential smoothing method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: A plurality of temperature sensors are arranged around the water tank and the phase change material, and the plurality of temperature sensors respectively detect the water temperature of the plurality of water tanks and the water temperature of the phase change material to obtain the average water temperature T of the water tank. i and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material 4. The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The total heat load Q required to obtain the indoor temperature of the workshop to rise to the target temperature pre ”, including the following steps: Get the heat demand Q at time node t t , and the load forecast value F at the preset time node t t , seasonal factor S t , and the load forecast value F at time node t+1 t+1 ; Heat demand Q based on time node t t , and the load forecast value F at the preset time node t , seasonal factor S t , and the load forecast value F at time node t+1 t+1 , calculate the total heat load Q pre .

5. The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on the triple exponential smoothing method according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The "obtaining the heat demand Q at time node t" t ”, including the following steps: Get the average outdoor temperature T of the production workshop at time node t out , Average indoor temperature of the production workshop T in , indoor target temperature T0; Based on the obtained outdoor average temperature T of the production workshop out , Average indoor temperature of the production workshop T in , indoor target temperature T0, calculate the heat demand Q at time node t t : Q t =k·(T0-T in )+m·T out ; Where k is the proportionality constant, m·T out is the error term.

6. The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on triple exponential smoothing method according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The "obtaining the load forecast value F at the preset time node t" t , seasonal factor S t ”, including the following steps: Based on the triple exponential smoothing method, the load forecast value F at time point t is calculated. t : F t =α·Y t +(1-a)·(F t-1 +β·(F t-1 -F t-2 )); Among them, F t is the predicted value at time point t, Y t is the actual observed value at time point t, i.e., the heat demand load at that time point, α is the smoothing coefficient with an initial value of 0.3, and F t-1 is the predicted value at time point t-1, F t-2 is the predicted value at time point t-2, and β is the secondary smoothing coefficient; Calculate the seasonal factor S t : S t =λ·(F t -F t-1 )+(1-λ)·S t-1 ; Among them, S t is the seasonal factor at time point t, γ is the seasonal smoothing coefficient, the initial value is 0.05, S t-1 is the seasonal factor at time point t-1.

7. The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on triple exponential smoothing method according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The "obtaining the load forecast value F at time node t+1" t+1 ”, including the following steps: Get the load forecast value Ft+1 at time node t+1: F t+1 =F t +β·(F t -F t-1 )+λ·(F t -F t-1 -S t )。 8. The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on triple exponential smoothing method according to claim 7 is characterized in that: The "heat demand Q based on time node t" t , and the load forecast value F at the preset time node t , seasonal factor S t , and the load forecast value F at time node t+1 t+1 , calculate the total heat load Q pre ", total heat load Q pre for:

9. The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on triple exponential smoothing method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The "heat load Q based on water tank heating" tank and the total heat load Q pre , calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in ”, including the following steps: Heat load Q based on water tank heating tank and the total heat load Q pre , calculate the preset heat generation Q of the heat generating equipment during the valley period in : Q in =Q pre -Q tank ; Get the total duration T between the current time and the end time of the valley power off ; Based on the preset heat generation Q of the heat generating equipment during the off-peak period in , calculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment during the off-peak period in : Among them, ε sys is the self-heating power.

10. The phase change water storage tank load heat storage method based on triple exponential smoothing method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The heating power P of the heat generating equipment is obtained in After that, the following steps are also included: Adjust the heating power of heat-generating equipment; After the preset time Δ t After that, the average water temperature T of the water tank is obtained again i , the preset control water temperature of the water tank T t and the average water temperature of the phase-changing material Get the heat load Q of the water tank heating tank and the total heat load Q pre , and recalculate the heating power P of the heat generating equipment in .

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