Cable decommissioning strategy determination method and device, computer equipment, readable storage medium and program product

Abstract

The invention relates to a cable decommissioning strategy determination method and device, computer equipment, a computer readable storage medium and a computer program product. The method comprises the steps that the unavailability rate of a target cable is acquired, the unavailability rate is used for representing the proportion of the duration of the target cable in an abnormal working state within a preset duration in the preset duration, and the unavailability rate comprises a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure; obtaining the reliability loss of the target cable, wherein the reliability loss is used for representing the loss of the target cable caused by a fault or power failure; the decommissioning cost / benefit information of the target cable is determined according to the unavailability, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, the decommissioning strategy of the target cable is determined according to the decommissioning cost / benefit information, and the decommissioning strategy is used for indicating whether the target cable is decommissioned or not. The method can improve the stability of the power system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of power systems, and in particular to a method, apparatus, computer equipment, computer-readable storage medium, and computer program product for determining a cable decommissioning strategy. Background Art

[0002] Cables are an important component of the power system and can be used to transmit and distribute electrical energy. With the development and changes of the power system, the operating conditions and environment of cables have also changed accordingly. Problems such as cable aging, loss, and failure have become increasingly prominent, posing greater risks to power supply and safety.

[0003] In the prior art, most of the time, technicians perform analysis based on prior knowledge to determine whether a cable should be retired.

[0004] However, this method of manually determining whether a cable is retired has poor accuracy, and thus there is the problem of abnormal cable retirement, which makes the stability of the power system poor. Summary of the invention

[0005] Based on this, it is necessary to provide a cable retirement strategy determination method, device, computer equipment, computer readable storage medium and computer program product to address the above technical problems, which can improve the accuracy of judging whether the cable is retired, avoid the problem of abnormal cable retirement, and effectively improve the stability of the power system.

[0006] In a first aspect, the present application provides a method for determining a cable decommissioning strategy, comprising:

[0007] Obtaining an unavailability rate of a target cable, where the unavailability rate is used to characterize the proportion of the time period during which the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time period to the preset time period, and the unavailability rate includes a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure;

[0008] Obtaining a reliability loss of a target cable, where the reliability loss is used to characterize a loss of the target cable caused by a fault or a power outage;

[0009] The decommissioning cost / benefit information of the target cable is determined according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, and the decommissioning strategy of the target cable is determined according to the decommissioning cost / benefit information, and the decommissioning strategy is used to indicate whether the target cable should be decommissioned.

[0010] In one embodiment, obtaining the unavailability rate of the target cable includes: obtaining the failure rate of the target cable, and determining the first unavailability rate based on the failure rate; obtaining the repair time of the target cable, and determining the second unavailability rate based on the repair time and the failure rate; the repair time is used to indicate the time from the occurrence of the failure to the recovery of the target cable to a normal working state; and determining the unavailability rate based on the first unavailability rate and the second unavailability rate.

[0011] In one embodiment, obtaining the reliability loss of the target cable includes: obtaining the power outage loss of the target cable, and obtaining the difference in expected power shortage before and after replacing the target cable; and determining the reliability loss based on the power outage loss and the difference in expected power shortage.

[0012] In one embodiment, obtaining the expected power shortage difference before and after replacing the target cable includes: obtaining the load shortage before and after replacing the target cable, the failure or maintenance time before and after replacing the target cable, and the failure or maintenance number before and after replacing the target cable; determining the expected power shortage difference according to the load shortage, the failure or maintenance time, and the failure or maintenance number.

[0013] In one of the embodiments, the retirement cost / benefit information of the target cable is determined based on the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, including: obtaining the retirement cost of the target cable, the retirement cost is used to characterize the cost of retiring the target cable and replacing it with a new cable; determining the operation and maintenance cost of the target cable based on the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life; and determining the retirement cost / benefit information based on the retirement cost and the operation and maintenance cost.

[0014] In one of the embodiments, the retirement strategy of the target cable is determined based on the retirement cost / benefit information, including: determining whether the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold; when the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy as a first retirement strategy, the first retirement strategy is used to indicate the retirement of the target cable; when the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is less than the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy as a second retirement strategy, the second retirement strategy is used to indicate not to retire the target cable; when the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is equal to the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy as a third retirement strategy, the third retirement strategy is used to indicate whether to retire the target cable based on the reliability parameters, safety parameters and environmental protection parameters of the target cable.

[0015] In a second aspect, the present application also provides a cable retirement strategy determination device, comprising:

[0016] A first acquisition module is used to acquire an unavailability rate of a target cable, where the unavailability rate is used to characterize the proportion of the time period during which the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time period to the preset time period, and the unavailability rate includes a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure;

[0017] A second acquisition module is used to acquire the reliability loss of the target cable, where the reliability loss is used to characterize the loss of the target cable caused by a fault or a power outage;

[0018] A determination module is used to determine the retirement cost / benefit information of the target cable according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, and to determine the retirement strategy of the target cable according to the retirement cost / benefit information, wherein the retirement strategy is used to indicate whether the target cable is retired.

[0019] In a third aspect, the present application further provides a computer device, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor implements the steps of the method described in any embodiment of the first aspect when executing the computer program.

[0020] In a fourth aspect, the present application further provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method described in any embodiment of the first aspect above.

[0021] In a fifth aspect, the present application further provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method described in any embodiment of the first aspect above.

[0022] The above-mentioned cable retirement strategy determination method, device, computer equipment, computer-readable storage medium and computer program product first obtain the unavailability rate of the target cable, which is used to characterize the proportion of the time that the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time period to the preset time period, and the unavailability rate includes a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure; then obtain the reliability loss of the target cable, which is used to characterize the loss of the target cable due to a fault or power outage; then, determine the retirement cost / benefit information of the target cable based on the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, and determine the retirement strategy of the target cable based on the retirement cost / benefit information, and the retirement strategy is used to indicate whether the target cable is retired. The cable retirement strategy determination method provided in the present application determines whether the target cable is retired based on the unavailability rate, reliability loss and aging life of the target cable, so that the determined retirement result is more accurate, which can effectively avoid the occurrence of abnormal cable retirement problems, and thus effectively improve the stability of the power system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0023] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application or related technologies, the drawings required for use in the embodiments of the present application or related technical descriptions will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other related drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0024] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a cable retirement strategy determination method in one embodiment;

[0025] Figure 2 A schematic flow chart of a method for obtaining an unavailability rate of a target cable in one embodiment;

[0026] Figure 3 A schematic flow chart of a method for obtaining reliability loss of a target cable in one embodiment;

[0027] Figure 4 A schematic flow chart of a method for obtaining an expected power shortage difference before and after replacing the target cable in one embodiment;

[0028] Figure 5 A flowchart of a method for determining the decommissioning cost / benefit information of the target cable in one embodiment;

[0029] Figure 6 A flow chart of a method for determining a retirement strategy of the target cable according to the retirement cost / benefit information in one embodiment;

[0030] Figure 7 A schematic flow chart of a method for determining a cable retirement strategy in another embodiment;

[0031] Figure 8 It is a structural block diagram of a cable retirement strategy determination device in one embodiment;

[0032] Fig. 9 is an internal structure diagram of a computer device in one embodiment;

[0033] Fig.10 FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the internal structure of a computer device in another embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0034] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present application more clearly understood, the present application is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present application and are not used to limit the present application.

[0035] Cables are an important component of the power system and can be used to transmit and distribute electrical energy. With the development and changes of the power system, the operating conditions and environment of cables have also changed accordingly. Problems such as cable aging, loss, and failure have become increasingly prominent, posing greater risks to power supply and safety.

[0036] In the prior art, most of the time, technicians perform analysis based on prior knowledge to determine whether a cable should be retired.

[0037] However, this method of manually determining whether a cable is retired has poor accuracy, and thus there is the problem of abnormal cable retirement, which makes the stability of the power system poor.

[0038] In view of this, the present application provides a method for determining a cable retirement strategy, which determines a retirement result with higher accuracy, can effectively avoid the occurrence of abnormal cable retirement problems, and thus effectively improve the stability of the power system.

[0039] The cable retirement strategy determination method provided in the present application may be executed by a computer device, which may be a terminal or a server.

[0040] In an exemplary embodiment, Figure 1 As shown, a method for determining a cable retirement strategy is provided, the method comprising the following steps:

[0041] Step 101: Obtain the unavailability rate of the target cable.

[0042] Among them, the unavailability rate is used to characterize the proportion of the time that the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time length to the preset time length, and the unavailability rate includes a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure.

[0043] Cable refers to the equipment used to transmit and distribute electric energy in the power system. The target cable refers to the cable for which the retirement strategy is to be determined, that is, the cable that needs to be judged whether to retire.

[0044] In some exemplary embodiments, the working data of the target cable may be obtained and input into a pre-trained unavailability rate determination model to obtain the unavailability rate of the target cable output by the unavailability rate determination model.

[0045] The unavailability rate of the target cable can also be determined by detecting the insulation performance and cable parameters of the target cable.

[0046] The failure rate of the target cable can also be obtained, and the first unavailability rate can be determined based on the failure rate; the repair time of the target cable can be obtained, and the second unavailability rate can be determined based on the repair time and the failure rate; and the unavailability rate of the target cable can be determined based on the first unavailability rate and the second unavailability rate.

[0047] Step 102: Obtain the reliability loss of the target cable.

[0048] The reliability loss is used to characterize the loss of the target cable due to a fault or power outage.

[0049] In some exemplary embodiments, working data of a target cable may be acquired and input into a pre-trained reliability loss determination model to obtain the reliability loss of the target cable output by the reliability loss determination model.

[0050] It is also possible to first obtain the power outage loss of the target cable and obtain the difference in expected power shortage before and after replacing the target cable; and then determine the reliability loss based on the power outage loss and the difference in expected power shortage.

[0051] Step 103: Determine retirement cost / benefit information of the target cable according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, and determine a retirement strategy for the target cable according to the retirement cost / benefit information.

[0052] The decommissioning strategy is used to indicate whether the target cable is decommissioned.

[0053] In some exemplary embodiments, the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable may be input into a pre-trained retirement cost / benefit information determination model to obtain retirement cost / benefit information of the target cable output by the retirement cost / benefit information determination model.

[0054] It is also possible to first obtain the decommissioning cost of the target cable, and determine the operation and maintenance cost of the target cable based on the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life, and then determine the decommissioning cost / benefit information based on the decommissioning cost and the operation and maintenance cost.

[0055] Furthermore, after the retirement cost / benefit information of the target cable is determined, the retirement strategy of the target cable may also be determined according to the retirement cost / benefit information.

[0056] Specifically, the decommissioning cost / benefit information may be input into a pre-trained decommissioning strategy determination model to obtain a decommissioning strategy of the target cable output by the decommissioning strategy determination model.

[0057] It is also possible to first determine whether the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold, and then determine the decommissioning strategy of the target cable according to the determination result.

[0058] The above-mentioned cable retirement strategy determination method first obtains the unavailability rate of the target cable, and the unavailability rate is used to characterize the proportion of the time that the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time period to the preset time period, and the unavailability rate includes a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure; then obtains the reliability loss of the target cable, and the reliability loss is used to characterize the loss of the target cable due to a fault or power outage; then, the retirement cost / benefit information of the target cable is determined based on the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, and the retirement strategy of the target cable is determined based on the retirement cost / benefit information, and the retirement strategy is used to indicate whether the target cable is retired. The cable retirement strategy determination method provided in the present application determines whether the target cable is retired based on the unavailability rate, reliability loss and aging life of the target cable, so that the determined retirement result is more accurate, which can effectively avoid the occurrence of abnormal cable retirement problems, and thus effectively improve the stability of the power system.

[0059] In an exemplary embodiment, Figure 2 As shown, the method for obtaining the unavailability rate of the target cable includes the following steps:

[0060] Step 201: Obtain the failure rate of the target cable, and determine the first unavailability rate according to the failure rate.

[0061] Optionally, the failure rate may be used to characterize the number of failures of the target cable within a preset time period.

[0062] In some exemplary embodiments, the failure rate can be expressed as express, , where N is the number of failures of the target cable within a preset time period, and T is the preset time period.

[0063] Furthermore, after determining the failure rate of the target cable, the first unavailability rate of the target cable can also be determined according to the failure rate. Specifically, the first unavailability rate can be expressed as express, , where MTBF is the inverse of the failure rate, that is, .

[0064] Step 202: Obtain the repair time of the target cable, and determine the second unavailability rate according to the repair time and the failure rate.

[0065] The repair time is used to indicate the time from when the target cable fails to when it recovers to a normal working state. The repair time is an average value.

[0066] Optionally, the second unused rate may be used to characterize the proportion of the time that the target cable needs to be repaired due to a fault within a preset time period to the preset time period.

[0067] In some exemplary embodiments, the repair time can be expressed as MTTR, ,in, It is The time to repair a fault, is the number of failures within a preset time period.

[0068] Furthermore, after determining the repair time of the target cable, the second unavailability rate of the target cable can also be determined according to the repair time and the failure rate. Specifically, the second unavailability rate can be express, .

[0069] Step 203: Determine the unavailability rate according to the first unavailability rate and the second unavailability rate.

[0070] In some exemplary embodiments, the unavailability rate can be expressed as express, .

[0071] In an exemplary embodiment, Figure 3 As shown, the method for obtaining the reliability loss of the target cable includes the following steps:

[0072] Step 301: Obtain the power outage loss of the target cable, and obtain the difference in expected power shortage before and after replacing the target cable.

[0073] Optionally, the power outage loss refers to the loss caused by a power outage caused by the cable in the power system within a preset time.

[0074] In some exemplary embodiments, the power outage loss can be expressed by UIC, ,in, The electricity fee corresponding to the amount of electricity provided by the power system within a preset time. is the preset time, It is the power outage rate caused by cables within a preset time.

[0075] Furthermore, after determining the power outage loss of the target cable, the expected power shortage difference before and after replacing the target cable can also be determined. Specifically, the load shortage before and after replacing the target cable, the fault or maintenance time before and after replacing the target cable, and the number of faults or maintenance before and after replacing the target cable can be obtained first; and then the expected power shortage difference can be determined based on the load shortage, the fault or maintenance time, and the fault or maintenance number.

[0076] Step 302: Determine the reliability loss according to the power outage loss and the difference between the expected power shortage amount.

[0077] In some exemplary embodiments, after determining the power outage loss of the target cable and the difference between the expected power shortage, the reliability loss can also be determined based on the power outage loss and the difference between the expected power shortage. express, .

[0078] In an exemplary embodiment, Figure 4 As shown, obtaining the expected power shortage difference before and after replacing the target cable includes the following steps:

[0079] Step 401, obtaining the load shortage before and after the target cable is replaced, the failure or maintenance time before and after the target cable is replaced, and the number of failure or maintenance before and after the target cable is replaced;

[0080] Step 402: Determine the expected power shortage difference according to the load shortage, the fault or maintenance time and the fault or maintenance number.

[0081] In some exemplary embodiments, the load shortage before and after the target cable is replaced, the fault or maintenance time before and after the target cable is replaced, and the number of faults or maintenance before and after the target cable is replaced can be obtained first, and then the expected power shortage difference can be determined according to the load shortage, the fault or maintenance time, and the fault or maintenance number. Specifically, the expected power shortage difference can be expressed as ENNS, ,in, It is The load shortage before and after the failure or maintenance of the target cable, It is The duration before and after the failure or maintenance of the target cable, It is the number of times before and after the target cable fails or is maintained. The load shortfall can be determined based on the target cable's failure rate, failure type, failure range, failure impact, and load level; the duration can be determined based on the target cable's repair time, replacement time, inspection time, and test time; the number of times can be determined based on the target cable's service life, operating conditions, and maintenance plan.

[0082] In an exemplary embodiment, Figure 5 As shown, the decommissioning cost / benefit information of the target cable is determined according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, including the following steps:

[0083] Step 501: Obtain the decommissioning cost of the target cable.

[0084] The decommissioning cost is used to represent the cost of decommissioning the target cable and replacing it with a new one.

[0085] Step 502: Determine the operation and maintenance cost of the target cable according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life.

[0086] Step 503: Determine the decommissioning cost / benefit information according to the decommissioning cost and the operation and maintenance cost.

[0087] In some exemplary embodiments, the decommissioning cost of the target cable can be expressed as express, = purchase cost + installation cost + operation cost + maintenance cost + expected loss cost, the operation and maintenance cost can be used express, = Equipment initial investment + operating cost + maintenance cost + failure cost + replacement cost + expected loss cost, among which, operating cost = *Average annual operating expenses, estimated loss costs = , maintenance cost = MTTR* *Average breakdown maintenance expenditure, is the aging life of the target cable.

[0088] Furthermore, after the decommissioning cost and the operation and maintenance cost of the target cable are determined, the decommissioning cost / benefit information may also be determined based on the decommissioning cost and the operation and maintenance cost.

[0089] In an optional embodiment of the present application, the state detection information of the target cable equipment can be obtained first, and the aging life of the target cable can be determined according to the state detection information, and the aging life is used to characterize the remaining usable life of the target cable. The state detection information includes the target cable burial method (direct burial / cable trench), the target cable type (such as cross-linked polyethylene), dielectric loss tangent (%), DC leakage current (nA), partial discharge (pc), temperature of the target cable insulation layer (℃), grounding capacitance current (A), insulation resistance (GΩ / km), and leakage conductance (S / km).

[0090] Specifically, the aging life of the target cable can be determined based on the Weibull distribution model / Weibull distribution model. This model is based on a statistical method and uses the failure data of the target cable to establish a probability distribution function of the aging life of the target cable. This model assumes that the failure rate of the aging of the target cable follows the Weibull distribution, and the failure rate is related to temperature and voltage. The model is ,in, is the target cable at time The probability density function of internal failure, is the shape parameter, Are scale parameters, both related to temperature and voltage.

[0091] The aging life of the target cable can also be determined based on the Arrhenius model. This model is based on the principle of chemical reaction kinetics and believes that the aging of the target cable is due to the undesirable changes (reactions) of atoms or molecules in the insulating material, resulting in performance degradation. This model assumes that the aging rate of the target cable is related to the activation energy and temperature, and the activation energy is a constant. The model is ,in, is the aging life of the target cable, is the target cable operating temperature, is the activation energy, is the Boltzmann constant, is a constant.

[0092] The aging life of the target cable can also be determined based on the characteristic detection quantity model. The model is based on the insulation state detection quantity of the target cable, such as leakage current, dielectric loss tangent, etc., to predict the aging life of the target cable. The model assumes that the characteristic detection quantity of the aging of the target cable has a certain functional relationship with the aging life of the target cable, and when the characteristic detection quantity reaches a certain critical value, the target cable fails. The model is

[0093] ,in, is the aging life of the target cable, is the critical value of feature detection, and At different temperatures and The feature detection quantity under is a constant.

[0094] In an exemplary embodiment, Figure 6 As shown, the retirement strategy of the target cable is determined according to the retirement cost / benefit information, including the following steps:

[0095] Step 601: Determine whether the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold.

[0096] Optionally, the preset threshold can be set by a technician according to actual needs.

[0097] In some exemplary embodiments, as described above, after the decommissioning cost and the operation and maintenance cost are determined, the decommissioning cost / benefit information can be determined based on the decommissioning cost and the operation and maintenance cost. Specifically, the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information can be expressed as B, .

[0098] Further, after determining the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information, it is also necessary to determine whether the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold. In an optional embodiment of the present application, the preset threshold may be 0. Therefore, determining whether the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than the preset threshold is to determine whether B is greater than 0.

[0099] Step 602: When the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold, determine that the decommissioning strategy is the first decommissioning strategy.

[0100] The first decommissioning strategy is used to instruct to decommission the target cable.

[0101] In some exemplary embodiments, if B is greater than 0, it may indicate that the benefit of postponing the retirement of the target cable is less than the cost of replacing it with a new cable, that is, it is beneficial to retire the target cable and replace it with a new cable.

[0102] Step 603: When the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is less than a preset threshold, determine that the decommissioning strategy is the second decommissioning strategy.

[0103] The second decommissioning strategy is used to indicate not to decommission the target cable.

[0104] In some exemplary embodiments, if B is greater than 0, it may indicate that the benefit of postponing the retirement of the target cable is greater than the cost of replacing it with a new cable, that is, it is disadvantageous to retire the target cable and replace it with a new cable.

[0105] Step 604: When the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is equal to a preset threshold, determine that the decommissioning strategy is a third decommissioning strategy.

[0106] The third decommissioning strategy is used to indicate whether to decommission the target cable based on the reliability parameter, safety parameter and environmental protection parameter of the target cable.

[0107] In some exemplary embodiments, if B is equal to 0, it can be explained that the benefit of postponing the retirement of the target cable is equal to the cost of replacing a new cable, and whether to retire the target cable can be determined based on the reliability parameters, safety parameters and environmental protection parameters of the target cable.

[0108] In an exemplary embodiment, Figure 7 As shown, another cable retirement strategy determination method is provided, the method comprising the following steps:

[0109] Step 701: Obtain the failure rate of the target cable, and determine the first unavailability rate according to the failure rate; obtain the repair time of the target cable, and determine the second unavailability rate according to the repair time and the failure rate; the repair time is used to indicate the time from the occurrence of the failure to the restoration of the normal working state of the target cable; determine the unavailability rate according to the first unavailability rate and the second unavailability rate, and the unavailability rate is used to characterize the proportion of the time that the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time length to the preset time length;

[0110] Step 702: Obtain the power outage loss of the target cable; obtain the load shortfall before and after replacing the target cable, the fault or maintenance time before and after replacing the target cable, and the number of faults or maintenance before and after replacing the target cable; determine the expected power shortage difference according to the load shortfall, the fault or maintenance time, and the fault or maintenance number; determine the reliability loss according to the power outage loss and the expected power shortage difference, and the reliability loss is used to characterize the loss of the target cable caused by the fault or power outage;

[0111] Step 703: Obtain the retirement cost of the target cable, where the retirement cost is used to characterize the cost of retiring the target cable and replacing it with a new cable; determine the operation and maintenance cost of the target cable according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss, and the aging life; determine the retirement cost / benefit information according to the retirement cost and the operation and maintenance cost, and determine whether the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold;

[0112] Step 704: when the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold, the decommissioning strategy is determined to be a first decommissioning strategy, and the first decommissioning strategy is used to indicate the decommissioning of the target cable; when the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is less than a preset threshold, the decommissioning strategy is determined to be a second decommissioning strategy, and the second decommissioning strategy is used to indicate not to decommission the target cable; when the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is equal to a preset threshold, the decommissioning strategy is determined to be a third decommissioning strategy, and the third decommissioning strategy is used to indicate whether to decommission the target cable based on the reliability parameters, safety parameters and environmental protection parameters of the target cable.

[0113] It should be understood that, although the various steps in the flowcharts involved in the above-mentioned embodiments are displayed in sequence according to the indication of the arrows, these steps are not necessarily executed in sequence according to the order indicated by the arrows. Unless there is a clear explanation in this article, the execution of these steps does not have a strict order restriction, and these steps can be executed in other orders. Moreover, at least a part of the steps in the flowcharts involved in the above-mentioned embodiments can include multiple steps or multiple stages, and these steps or stages are not necessarily executed at the same time, but can be executed at different times, and the execution order of these steps or stages is not necessarily to be carried out in sequence, but can be executed in turn or alternately with other steps or at least a part of the steps or stages in other steps.

[0114] Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present application also provides a cable retirement strategy determination device for implementing the cable retirement strategy determination method involved above. The implementation scheme for solving the problem provided by the device is similar to the implementation scheme recorded in the above method, so the specific limitations in one or more cable retirement strategy determination device embodiments provided below can refer to the limitations of the cable retirement strategy determination method above, and will not be repeated here.

[0115] In an exemplary embodiment, Figure 8 As shown, a cable retirement strategy determination device 800 is provided, comprising: a first acquisition module 801, a second acquisition module 802 and a determination module 803, wherein:

[0116] A first acquisition module 801 is used to acquire an unavailability rate of a target cable, where the unavailability rate is used to characterize the proportion of the time period during which the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time period to the preset time period, and the unavailability rate includes a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure;

[0117] A second acquisition module 802 is used to acquire the reliability loss of the target cable, where the reliability loss is used to characterize the loss of the target cable caused by a fault or power outage;

[0118] The determination module 803 is used to determine the retirement cost / benefit information of the target cable according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, and determine the retirement strategy of the target cable according to the retirement cost / benefit information, and the retirement strategy is used to indicate whether the target cable is retired.

[0119] In one embodiment, the first acquisition module 801 is specifically used to acquire the failure rate of the target cable, and determine the first unavailability rate according to the failure rate; acquire the repair time of the target cable, and determine the second unavailability rate according to the repair time and the failure rate; the repair time is used to indicate the time from the occurrence of the failure to the restoration of the normal working state of the target cable; determine the unavailability rate according to the first unavailability rate and the second unavailability rate

[0120] In one embodiment, the second acquisition module 802 is specifically used to obtain the power outage loss of the target cable and obtain the expected power shortage difference before and after replacing the target cable; determine the reliability loss according to the power outage loss and the expected power shortage difference.

[0121] In one embodiment, the second acquisition module 802 is specifically used to obtain the load shortage before and after replacing the target cable, the failure or maintenance time before and after replacing the target cable, and the number of failures or maintenance before and after replacing the target cable; and determine the expected power shortage difference based on the load shortage, the failure or maintenance time, and the failure or maintenance number.

[0122] In one embodiment, the determination module 802 is specifically used to obtain the decommissioning cost of the target cable, where the decommissioning cost is used to characterize the cost of retiring the target cable and replacing it with a new cable; determine the operation and maintenance cost of the target cable based on the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life; and determine the decommissioning cost / benefit information based on the decommissioning cost and the operation and maintenance cost.

[0123] In one embodiment, the determination module 802 is specifically used to determine whether the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold; when the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than the preset threshold, the retirement strategy is determined to be a first retirement strategy, and the first retirement strategy is used to indicate the retirement of the target cable; when the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is less than the preset threshold, the retirement strategy is determined to be a second retirement strategy, and the second retirement strategy is used to indicate not to retire the target cable; when the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is equal to the preset threshold, the retirement strategy is determined to be a third retirement strategy, and the third retirement strategy is used to indicate whether to retire the target cable based on the reliability parameters, safety parameters and environmental protection parameters of the target cable.

[0124] Each module in the above cable retirement strategy determination device can be implemented in whole or in part by software, hardware, or a combination thereof. Each module can be embedded in or independent of a processor in a computer device in the form of hardware, or can be stored in a memory in a computer device in the form of software, so that the processor can call and execute operations corresponding to each module.

[0125] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided. The computer device may be a server, and its internal structure diagram may be as shown in FIG. Fig. 9 As shown. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, an input / output interface (Input / Output, referred to as I / O) and a communication interface. The processor, the memory and the input / output interface are connected through a system bus, and the communication interface is connected to the system bus through the input / output interface. The processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The database of the computer device is used to store data. The input / output interface of the computer device is used to exchange information between the processor and an external device. The communication interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal through a network connection. When the computer program is executed by the processor, a method for determining a cable retirement strategy is implemented.

[0126] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided. The computer device may be a terminal, and its internal structure diagram may be as shown in FIG. Fig.10As shown. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, an input / output interface, a communication interface, a display unit and an input device. The processor, the memory and the input / output interface are connected through a system bus, and the communication interface, the display unit and the input device are connected to the system bus through the input / output interface. The processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The input / output interface of the computer device is used to exchange information between the processor and an external device. The communication interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal in a wired or wireless manner, and the wireless manner can be implemented through WIFI, a mobile cellular network, near field communication (NFC) or other technologies. When the computer program is executed by the processor, a method for determining a cable retirement strategy is implemented.

[0127] Those skilled in the art will understand that Fig. 9 or Fig.10 The structure shown in the figure is only a block diagram of a part of the structure related to the solution of the present application, and does not constitute a limitation on the computer device to which the solution of the present application is applied. The specific computer device may include more or fewer components than those shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components.

[0128] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer device is provided, including a memory and a processor, wherein a computer program is stored in the memory, and when the processor executes the computer program, the following steps are implemented:

[0129] Obtaining an unavailability rate of a target cable, where the unavailability rate is used to characterize the proportion of the time period during which the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time period to the preset time period, and the unavailability rate includes a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure;

[0130] Obtaining a reliability loss of a target cable, where the reliability loss is used to characterize a loss of the target cable caused by a fault or a power outage;

[0131] The decommissioning cost / benefit information of the target cable is determined according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, and the decommissioning strategy of the target cable is determined according to the decommissioning cost / benefit information, and the decommissioning strategy is used to indicate whether the target cable should be decommissioned.

[0132] In one embodiment, when the processor executes the computer program, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the failure rate of the target cable, and determining the first unavailability rate based on the failure rate; obtaining the repair time of the target cable, and determining the second unavailability rate based on the repair time and the failure rate; the repair time is used to indicate the time from the occurrence of the failure to the recovery of the target cable to a normal working state; and determining the unavailability rate based on the first unavailability rate and the second unavailability rate.

[0133] In one embodiment, when the processor executes the computer program, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the power outage loss of the target cable, and obtaining the expected power shortage difference before and after replacing the target cable; determining the reliability loss based on the power outage loss and the expected power shortage difference.

[0134] In one embodiment, when the processor executes the computer program, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the load shortage before and after replacing the target cable, the failure or maintenance time before and after replacing the target cable, and the number of failures or maintenance before and after replacing the target cable; determining the expected power shortage difference based on the load shortage, the failure or maintenance time, and the failure or maintenance number.

[0135] In one embodiment, when the processor executes the computer program, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the retirement cost of the target cable, the retirement cost is used to characterize the cost of retiring the target cable and replacing it with a new cable; determining the operation and maintenance cost of the target cable based on the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life; and determining the retirement cost / benefit information based on the retirement cost and the operation and maintenance cost.

[0136] In one embodiment, when the processor executes the computer program, the following steps are also implemented: determining whether the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold; in the case that the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy to be a first retirement strategy, and the first retirement strategy is used to indicate the retirement of the target cable; in the case that the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is less than the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy to be a second retirement strategy, and the second retirement strategy is used to indicate not to retire the target cable; in the case that the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is equal to the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy to be a third retirement strategy, and the third retirement strategy is used to indicate whether to retire the target cable based on the reliability parameters, safety parameters and environmental protection parameters of the target cable.

[0137] In one embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the following steps are implemented:

[0138] Obtaining an unavailability rate of a target cable, where the unavailability rate is used to characterize the proportion of the time period during which the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time period to the preset time period, and the unavailability rate includes a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure;

[0139] Obtaining a reliability loss of a target cable, where the reliability loss is used to characterize a loss of the target cable caused by a fault or a power outage;

[0140] The decommissioning cost / benefit information of the target cable is determined according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, and the decommissioning strategy of the target cable is determined according to the decommissioning cost / benefit information, and the decommissioning strategy is used to indicate whether the target cable should be decommissioned.

[0141] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by the processor, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the failure rate of the target cable, and determining the first unavailability rate based on the failure rate; obtaining the repair time of the target cable, and determining the second unavailability rate based on the repair time and the failure rate; the repair time is used to indicate the time from the occurrence of the failure to the recovery of the target cable to a normal working state; and determining the unavailability rate based on the first unavailability rate and the second unavailability rate.

[0142] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by the processor, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the power outage loss of the target cable, and obtaining the expected power shortage difference before and after replacing the target cable; determining the reliability loss based on the power outage loss and the expected power shortage difference.

[0143] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by the processor, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the load shortage before and after replacing the target cable, the failure or maintenance time before and after replacing the target cable, and the number of failures or maintenance before and after replacing the target cable; determining the expected power shortage difference based on the load shortage, the failure or maintenance time, and the failure or maintenance number.

[0144] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by the processor, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the decommissioning cost of the target cable, the decommissioning cost is used to characterize the cost of retiring the target cable and replacing it with a new cable; determining the operation and maintenance cost of the target cable based on the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life; determining the decommissioning cost / benefit information based on the decommissioning cost and the operation and maintenance cost.

[0145] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by the processor, the following steps are also implemented: determining whether the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold; in the case that the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy to be a first retirement strategy, and the first retirement strategy is used to indicate the retirement of the target cable; in the case that the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is less than the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy to be a second retirement strategy, and the second retirement strategy is used to indicate not to retire the target cable; in the case that the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is equal to the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy to be a third retirement strategy, and the third retirement strategy is used to indicate whether to retire the target cable based on the reliability parameters, safety parameters and environmental protection parameters of the target cable.

[0146] In one embodiment, a computer program product is provided, comprising a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the following steps:

[0147] Obtaining an unavailability rate of a target cable, where the unavailability rate is used to characterize the proportion of the time period during which the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time period to the preset time period, and the unavailability rate includes a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure;

[0148] Obtaining a reliability loss of a target cable, where the reliability loss is used to characterize a loss of the target cable caused by a fault or a power outage;

[0149] The decommissioning cost / benefit information of the target cable is determined according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, and the decommissioning strategy of the target cable is determined according to the decommissioning cost / benefit information, and the decommissioning strategy is used to indicate whether the target cable should be decommissioned.

[0150] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by the processor, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the failure rate of the target cable, and determining the first unavailability rate based on the failure rate; obtaining the repair time of the target cable, and determining the second unavailability rate based on the repair time and the failure rate; the repair time is used to indicate the time from the occurrence of the failure to the recovery of the target cable to a normal working state; and determining the unavailability rate based on the first unavailability rate and the second unavailability rate.

[0151] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by the processor, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the power outage loss of the target cable, and obtaining the expected power shortage difference before and after replacing the target cable; determining the reliability loss based on the power outage loss and the expected power shortage difference.

[0152] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by the processor, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the load shortage before and after replacing the target cable, the failure or maintenance time before and after replacing the target cable, and the number of failures or maintenance before and after replacing the target cable; determining the expected power shortage difference based on the load shortage, the failure or maintenance time, and the failure or maintenance number.

[0153] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by the processor, the following steps are also implemented: obtaining the decommissioning cost of the target cable, the decommissioning cost is used to characterize the cost of retiring the target cable and replacing it with a new cable; determining the operation and maintenance cost of the target cable based on the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life; determining the decommissioning cost / benefit information based on the decommissioning cost and the operation and maintenance cost.

[0154] In one embodiment, when the computer program is executed by the processor, the following steps are also implemented: determining whether the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold; in the case that the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is greater than the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy to be a first retirement strategy, and the first retirement strategy is used to indicate the retirement of the target cable; in the case that the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is less than the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy to be a second retirement strategy, and the second retirement strategy is used to indicate not to retire the target cable; in the case that the retirement cost / benefit indicated by the retirement cost / benefit information is equal to the preset threshold, determining the retirement strategy to be a third retirement strategy, and the third retirement strategy is used to indicate whether to retire the target cable based on the reliability parameters, safety parameters and environmental protection parameters of the target cable.

[0155] A person of ordinary skill in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment method can be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a computer program, and the computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the above-mentioned methods. Among them, any reference to the memory, database or other medium used in the embodiments provided in the present application can include at least one of non-volatile memory and volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash memory, optical memory, high-density embedded non-volatile memory, resistive random access memory (ReRAM), magnetic random access memory (MRAM), ferroelectric random access memory (FRAM), phase change memory (PCM), graphene memory, etc. Volatile memory can include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory, etc. As an illustration and not limitation, RAM can be in various forms, such as static random access memory (SRAM) or dynamic random access memory (DRAM). The database involved in each embodiment provided in this application may include at least one of a relational database and a non-relational database. Non-relational databases may include distributed databases based on blockchains, etc., but are not limited to this. The processor involved in each embodiment provided in this application may be a general-purpose processor, a central processing unit, a graphics processor, a digital signal processor, a programmable logic device, a data processing logic device based on quantum computing, an artificial intelligence (AI) processor, etc., but are not limited to this.

[0156] The technical features of the above embodiments may be combined arbitrarily. To make the description concise, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this application.

[0157] The above-described embodiments only express several implementation methods of the present application, and the descriptions thereof are relatively specific and detailed, but they cannot be understood as limiting the scope of the present application. It should be pointed out that, for a person of ordinary skill in the art, several variations and improvements can be made without departing from the concept of the present application, and these all belong to the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the attached claims.

Claims

1. A method for determining a cable retirement strategy, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtaining an unavailability rate of a target cable, wherein the unavailability rate is used to characterize the proportion of the time period during which the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time period to the preset time period, and the unavailability rate includes a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure; Acquire the reliability loss of the target cable, where the reliability loss is used to characterize the loss of the target cable caused by a fault or a power outage; Decommissioning cost / benefit information of the target cable is determined based on the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, and a decommissioning strategy of the target cable is determined based on the decommissioning cost / benefit information, wherein the decommissioning strategy is used to indicate whether the target cable should be decommissioned.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The obtaining the unavailability rate of the target cable comprises: Acquire a failure rate of the target cable, and determine the first unavailability rate according to the failure rate; Acquire the repair time of the target cable, and determine the second unavailability rate according to the repair time and the failure rate; the repair time is used to indicate the time from when the failure of the target cable occurs to when the normal working state is restored; The unavailability rate is determined according to the first unavailability rate and the second unavailability rate.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The obtaining the reliability loss of the target cable comprises: Obtaining the power outage loss of the target cable, and obtaining the difference in expected power shortage before and after replacing the target cable; The reliability loss is determined according to the power outage loss and the difference between the expected power shortage amount.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The obtaining of the expected power shortage difference before and after replacing the target cable includes: Obtaining the load shortage before and after the target cable is replaced, the failure or maintenance time before and after the target cable is replaced, and the number of failures or maintenance before and after the target cable is replaced; The expected power shortage difference is determined according to the load shortage, the fault or maintenance time and the fault or maintenance number.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step of determining the decommissioning cost / benefit information of the target cable according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss, and the aging life of the target cable comprises: Obtaining the decommissioning cost of the target cable, where the decommissioning cost is used to characterize the cost of decommissioning the target cable and replacing it with a new cable; Determining the operation and maintenance cost of the target cable according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life; The decommissioning cost / benefit information is determined according to the decommissioning cost and the operation and maintenance cost.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Determining the retirement strategy of the target cable according to the retirement cost / benefit information includes: Determining whether the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold; In a case where the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is greater than a preset threshold, determining that the decommissioning strategy is a first decommissioning strategy, wherein the first decommissioning strategy is used to instruct the decommissioning of the target cable; In a case where the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is less than a preset threshold, determining that the decommissioning strategy is a second decommissioning strategy, wherein the second decommissioning strategy is used to indicate that the target cable is not to be decommissioned; When the decommissioning cost / benefit indicated by the decommissioning cost / benefit information is equal to a preset threshold, the decommissioning strategy is determined to be a third decommissioning strategy, and the third decommissioning strategy is used to indicate whether to decommission the target cable based on the reliability parameters, safety parameters and environmental protection parameters of the target cable.

7. A cable decommissioning strategy determination device, characterized in that: The device comprises: A first acquisition module is used to acquire an unavailability rate of a target cable, wherein the unavailability rate is used to characterize the proportion of the time period during which the target cable is in an abnormal working state within a preset time period to the preset time period, and the unavailability rate includes a first unavailability rate caused by aging failure and a second unavailability rate caused by repairable failure; A second acquisition module, used for acquiring the reliability loss of the target cable, wherein the reliability loss is used for characterizing the loss of the target cable caused by a fault or a power outage; A determination module is used to determine the retirement cost / benefit information of the target cable according to the unavailability rate, the reliability loss and the aging life of the target cable, and determine the retirement strategy of the target cable according to the retirement cost / benefit information, wherein the retirement strategy is used to indicate whether the target cable is retired.

8. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

10. A computer program product, comprising a computer program, characterized in that When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6 are implemented.

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