Prediction method of reservoir flood control risk rate based on runoff ensemble forecast and evaluation method of reservoir flood control scheduling scheme

Abstract

The invention provides a reservoir flood control risk rate prediction method based on runoff ensemble forecasting. The reservoir flood control risk rate prediction method based on runoff ensemble forecasting comprises the steps that (1) a plurality of sets of runoff forecasting processes are obtained according to runoff ensemble forecasting results obtained on the basis of a plurality of forecasting schemes; (2) a reservoir outflow threshold and a reservoir water level threshold are set, and a reservoir flood control risk event is defined; (3) the reservoir upstream flood control risk rate and the reservoir downstream flood control risk rate are predicated on the basis of the runoff forecasting processes, the reservoir outflow threshold, the reservoir water level threshold and a current reservoir flood control scheduling scheme. According to the reservoir flood control risk rate prediction method based on runoff ensemble forecasting, the reservoir flood control risk rates can be analyzed in a systemized and complete mode, the reservoir flood control risk rate prediction method can be widely applied to reservoir flood control scheduling, and the basis is provided for scientific decision making of reservoir flood control scheduling.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of reservoir dispatching, in particular to a reservoir flood control risk rate prediction method based on runoff ensemble prediction. Background technique [0002] Reservoir scheduling achieves the purpose of benefiting and eliminating harm by redistributing the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources. In the reservoir dispatching with the goal of flood control, the forecast results are generally amplified by taking the most unfavorable situation, and whether it is safe or not is determined through the reservoir flood regulation calculation. This method cannot describe the risk of flood control. It is of great theoretical significance and practical value to carry out the calculation of the risk rate of flood control by identifying the risk rate of dispatching decisions and controlling it within a certain acceptable range. [0003] The existing reservoir flood control risk rate prediction mainly...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Therefore, there are problems in the existing risk rate prediction of reservoir flood control: (1) It is difficult to describe the time-dependent characteristics of the error in the runoff forecast process generated according to the statistical law of forecast error; (2) the follow-up risk rate caused by the high water level at the end of operation cannot be considered

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