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Organization and individual stock comment accuracy rating method

A technology with high accuracy and individual shares, applied in instrumentation, finance, data processing applications, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-12-24
王志恒
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

How to assess the accuracy of these speculations, there is no unified way

Method used

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  • Organization and individual stock comment accuracy rating method
  • Organization and individual stock comment accuracy rating method

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Embodiment Construction

[0011] When calculating the annual EPS accuracy of an institution or individual's forecast for a certain stock, set its annual EPS forecast value to X, first find out the annual EPS value x forecast by all institutions and individuals for the stock i , taking the actual annual EPS of the stock as the expected value μ, calculate the sum of the squares of the difference between each forecasted annual EPS value and the expected value μ, divide by the number of forecasted annual EPS values ​​n minus 1, and then take the root sign to obtain the standard deviation σ, that is:

[0012]

[0013] After u=(X-μ) / σ transformation, the u value is obtained, and after taking the absolute value of the u value, check the standard normal distribution table to get Φ(|u|), then the annual EPS predicted by the institution or individual for the stock is accurate The degree PA is twice the value obtained by subtracting Φ(|u|) from 1, namely:

[0014] .

[0015] When calculating the stock pric...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an organization and individual stock comment accuracy rating method and belongs to the technical field of credit rating. The organization and individual stock comment accuracy rating method includes: dividing organization or individual rates into five stars according to comprehensive accuracy P of organization or individual stock comments, wherein the comprehensive accuracy P of the organization or individual stock comments is the arithmetic mean value of annual EPS (earnings per share) accuracy and stock price accuracy judged by the organization or individual on all stocks with the stock comments; setting the annual EPS or stock price predicted on a certain stock by the organization or individual to conform to normal distribution N (mu, sigma <2>), wherein when the annual EPS or the stock price predicated value judged on the certain stock by the organization or individual is X, annual EPS or stock price accuracy predicated on the certain stock is the proportion of a curve area, out of a range from (mu-lmu-Xl) to (mu+lmu-Xl) on a normal distribution function N(mu, sigma <2>) curve horizontal axis, to the total area. The organization and individual stock comment accuracy rating method can be used for predicting and rating the accuracy of the stock comments released by security companies or individuals.

Description

technical field [0001] The technical field of the present invention is credit rating. Background technique [0002] At present, some institutional stock commentators and individual stock commentators often evaluate the prospects of individual stocks, give annual EPS (earnings per share) forecasts and target prices, and give "recommended", "buy", "neutral" " and other ratings. How to assess the accuracy of these speculations, there is no unified way. [0003] The most commonly used rating method is credit rating. There are different classifications of credit rating methods, such as qualitative analysis method and quantitative analysis method, subjective rating method and objective rating method, fuzzy mathematics rating method and financial ratio analysis method, factor analysis method and comprehensive analysis method, static rating method and dynamic rating method , predictive analysis method and default rate model method, etc., as well as rating methods for various indu...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q40/00
Inventor 王志恒
Owner 王志恒