Electricity demand predication method based on temperature and economic growth

Abstract

The invention provides an electricity demand predication method based on temperature and economic growth, which comprises steps of selecting the best economic indicator, acquiring historical data, acquiring average temperature for each mouth / quarter in a historical annual sample interval through calculation, acquiring an economic growth index for each mouth / quarter in the historical annual sample interval through calculation, building a year-after-year monthly / quarterly econometric model with whole society electricity as an explanatory variable, acquiring an average temperature predication value for a target mouth / quarter through calculation, acquiring an economic growth index predication value for the target mouth / quarter through calculation, and acquiring a whole society electricity predication value for the target mouth / quarter through calculation. The method of the invention has the advantages of simple prediction process, good prediction effects and the like, an effective prediction method is provided for electricity demand in a mouth / quarter level, and important reference basis is provided for an energy director and a power market analysis and predication person.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power market demand forecasting, in particular to a power demand forecasting method based on temperature and economic growth. Background technique [0002] Electricity market demand forecasting is an important basic work for national energy authorities and power grid enterprises, providing important support for national energy monitoring and management, power grid enterprise production planning and operation management The current situation of entering the new normal and the obvious slowdown of economic and electricity consumption growth has put forward higher requirements for the accuracy of electricity demand forecasting. [0003] The economic growth rate is still bottoming out. The traditional extrapolation forecasting method often continues to evolve at a steady pace because it does not take into account the impact of economic trends, resulting in large deviations in the forecast results of electricit...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, the current power market demand forecast mainly focuses on the forecast of power load. Because power load is greatly affected by meteorological factors, the previous mainstream research is based on meteorological indicators and uses various algorithms to carry out power load forecasting; for power demand ( electricity consumption) prediction, most of the research still stays on the traditional prediction methods such as trend extrapolation, unit consumption of output value, elasticity coefficient, GDP regression, etc. Although some researches have focused on predicting electricity demand based on the relationship between economy and electricity, such as : Build an investment-driven economic growth model, and then transmit it to electricity demand forecasting, but there are still problems such as complex forecasting process and lack of effective consideration of temperature

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